When you are in a hole, stop digging
The world awaits retaliation against Israel for its assassinations last week. Both were relatively surgical affairs that killed the military commander of Lebanese Hizbollah in Beirut (as well as some women and children) and the political spokesman of Hamas in Tehran. Expectations for retaliation focus on a large missile and drone attack from all directions.
I doubt that. If successful, such a raid might mobilize the US to join Israel in a further escalation. That is something the Iranians don’t want.
It need not be an air raid
Israel has seemed invulnerable for decades. Its sophisticated air defenses have prevented thousands of missiles and drones from reaching population centers.
Iran and its partners might be better served to assassinate one or more major Israeli political or military figures. That would be a symmetrical response that some might argue does not justify further escalation. It would also strike fear into the hearts of every Jew in Israel. The only major Jewish figure murdered in modern Israel was Prime Minister Itzhak Rabin, killed by a Jew.
The Israelis have demonstrated that they can track and strike major figures in the capitals of their adversaries. Is it really possible that the “axis of resistance” has not developed a comparable capability inside Israel?
The capability need not necessarily be technologically sophisticated. Knives, guns, and grenades can be smuggled and murderers deployed or hired. Targets of opportunity should not be difficult to find in a small and relatively open society.
Iran has assets it doesn’t want to lose
The Iranians will decide. Hizbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis may have been relatively free to do what they wanted since October 7, but no doubt Tehran is now coordinating the retaliation.
Iran has reached nuclear threshold status. It is able to build a nuclear bomb within weeks with material in its possession. Prime Minister Netanyahu is looking for an excuse to damage that capability. In April, the Israelis demonstrated their ability to reach Iran’s nuclear facilities with drones that went undetected. Iran may want to hide its hand in the retaliation, mirroring Israel’s refusal to confirm its hand in the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Netanyahu wins, Israel loses
A successful assassination or two, or a successful air raid, will put the Israelis again on the spot. President Biden has already made clear to Netanyahu that the US will not back further escalation. If Netanyahu pays heed, the cycle will end. If not, it will continue.
That said, Netanyahu has already accomplished several of his own goals. The Gaza talks can go nowhere until the escalation ends. He does not want the ceasefire/prisoner exchange that Washington is insisting on. The Democrats risk a major war during the election campaign, giving advantage to Trump, whom Netanyahu favors. The crisis will enable him to stay in power at least until October, when the Knesset returns from recess, and likely beyond.
Israel is the big loser. The ferocious October 7 attack was far from an existential threat, but Netanyahu and many Israelis have characterized it as such. That justified the ferocious response in Gaza that has in turn led to the assassinations and potential war with Iran and its partners. That really is an existential threat. When you are in a hole, stop digging.
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Tunisia gets one more chance
I know Tunisia is not in the headlines, but this statement by presidential candidates struck me. They are trying to preserve what little is left of democratic norms created during the “Arab spring,” which originated in Tunisia. I wish them well, but current President Saied is not making it easy.
Our country will be undergoing an upcoming election in Tunisia during the month of October of this year, and violations have multiplied, affecting most serious candidates who are entitled to compete in the elections. These candidates are faced with restrictions with the aim of excluding them in order to clear the way for a specific candidate, which is affecting the very credibility of the process.
In light of this situation, which undermines the simplest elements of fair competition, the undersigned figures affirm that, while they may compete in the electoral process, they share common national and democratic values, as well as respect for the people as the ultimate decision-makers in choosing their representatives, and commitment to ensuring the integrity of these elections as a fundamental condition for their success. Furthermore, we emphasize the following points:
1: We denounce the arbitrary and security harassment and restrictions that have targeted many of those involved in the electoral campaigns while collecting voluntary endorsements, to the extent of arresting many election coordinators and snatching the endorsements they held. We hold the Minister of the Interior and the Secretary of State for Security responsible for this lack of neutrality and we demand the release of the detainees and the return of the endorsements that were confiscated.
2: We stress that depriving candidates running for elections of their right to obtain a criminal record card, which is essential to run for office, is a violation of a constitutional right. This practice allows for the Ministry of Interior to interfere in the electoral process and exploit the state’s agencies in an illegal manner which contradicts the most basic requirements of political and civil rights. We further stress that it could have been possible for the electoral commission to request this card directly from the Ministry of Interior to avoid such deviation and abuses.
3: We call for the immediate issuance of a Card No. 3 to all candidates and remind that deprivation of civil and political rights can only occur through a final and supplementary judicial ruling, which does not apply to the candidates.
4: We hold the electoral commission, which announced full jurisdiction over this process, responsible for complicating the procedures and conditions, contrary to the applicable texts and electoral law, in addition to the serious violations recorded and the suspicious silence that accompanied them in the past days despite the cries of alarm and denunciation raised by many candidates. It considers that this unjustified silence from the commission amounts to collusion with a hidden agenda aimed at turning the electoral race into a farce and a crime against the Tunisian people.
5: We call on the electoral commission to extend the period for collecting endorsements, in respect of the electoral calendar, considering that the provision of endorsements to candidates did not effectively begin until July 10. The commission must also ensure the freedom of citizens to endorse any candidate while respecting their personal data, away from intimidation and coercion.
6: All Tunisian media outlets are urged to fulfill their role in informing and discussing electoral programs and organizing debates among candidates in a spirit of objectivity, fairness, and equal opportunities. Public media, funded by taxpayers’ money, is required to move away from being a presidential media organ by opening platforms both centrally and regionally in an atmosphere of freedom, independence, and equality, while respecting professional ethics and the public’s right to access reliable information pertaining to all candidates.
7: The administrative court is called upon to fulfill its historical role in light of the deliberate absence of the constitutional court, in order to avoid any unilateral interpretations of the constitution and the applicable laws that may align with the desires of some to exclude most serious candidates in favor of a specific candidate.
8: We call on the Tunisian judiciary to uphold justice and fairness and to operate with independence without any political pressure, and to allow individuals imprisoned in political cases their constitutional right to run for elections. We emphasize that the Tunisian people alone have the authority to exclude any candidate from the race, and this should be done through the ballot boxes.
9: We call for the neutralization of the administration and the prohibition of using state institutions in general, and particularly the posts of mayors, local officials, and governors, to gather endorsements for a specific candidate and to be utilized in any electoral campaign.
10: We call on the military and security institutions to fulfill their national duties and maintain neutrality in all matters surrounding the electoral process, in order to ensure the protection of ballot boxes from any possible manipulation, that is provided that the objective conditions for conducting fair multiparty elections are met, in which everyone can compete freely and without restrictions.
Finally, we urge the Tunisian people to exercise their citizenship and constitutional rights in endorsing and voting for any candidate they deem worthy, in freedom to choose the next president of the country, thus blocking attempts to drain the electoral scene and impose guardianship and exclusion to pave the way for a single candidate. We insist that democratic elections are the only means capable of extricating the country from its political crisis and resolving conflicts based on programs and ideas, rather than on defamation and exclusion.
We further stress that if there is a lack of minimum respect for the basic conditions for fair competition, and if there is a tendency to use official institutions to directly and blatantly influence the nomination process or future stages of the electoral process, while ensuring equality in dealing with all competitors, then we fear that the elections may turn into a mere formal play lacking any credibility, which we refuse to be a part of. This compels us to keep all civic options open to ensure the protection of the electoral process from any deviations it might encounter.
Long live Tunisia, free and proud.
Signatures:
Safi Said
Dhakir Lahidheb
Abdellatif Mekki
Imed Daimi
Ghazi Chaouachi
Kamel Akrout
Lotfi Mraihi
Mourad Massoudi
Nizar Chaari
Neji Jelloul
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Harris is gaining while Trump steps in it
Donald Trump managed yesterday to turn an interview with the National Association of Black Journalists into a campaign debacle. He claimed that Kamala Harris, who went to historically Black Howard University and became a member of a Black sorority, had not always identified as Black but rather as Indian. She in fact is Black and Indian. Her father was a Black Jamaican and her mother was an Indian Tamil. She grew up identifying as both.
Why would a presidential candidate even mention a competitor’s racial origins? Why would he do so in a demonstrably false way? What did he hope to gain from this strange assertion?
What did he think he was doing?
Trump’s faux pas could be just a mistake. His cognitive capacity is in doubt. He often says “weird” (and offensive) things. This could just be another one.
That is hard to believe. His campaign has surely briefed him extensively on Harris’ background and biography. He should know by now where she went to university. He has a particular interest in immigration and had for years challenged Barack Obama’s illegibility for the presidency based on the false claim that he was born in Kenya. Trump certainly knows the origins of Harris’ immigrant parents.
Trump was trying to cast aspersions. He was suggesting that she had been dishonest about her Black identity and is now only using it for political purposes. Trump may have hoped to suggest that she, like Obama, was not a legitimate candidate. He wanted to drive a wedge between Black voters and Harris, hoping to prevent her from reversing the modest flow of (mostly male) Black voters the polls show he has gained.
Failure is its own reward
He failed miserably. His audience knew that Harris identifies as Black as well as Indian. The country knows too. This faux pas makes him look worse in the eyes of Harris supporters and independents without gaining him much among his own fans. They already knew he is an insensitive racist and like him for it.
Harris has now drawn even with Trump in national polling and is improving in battleground states. Biden before withdrawing his candidacy had been running consistently behind Trump. Harris’ campaign has energized Democrats while the Republican vice-presidential candidate, JD Vance, has been dragging down Trump. He told the Black journalists it doesn’t matter who the vice presidential candidate is.
The election is still a long way off
Anything can happen between now and November 5. But for now Harris is gaining and Trump is lagging. Harris will name her vice presidential candidate in the next few days. The Democratic Convention August 19-22 should give her a bump, provided demonstrations don’t ruin it. The economy is weakening and inflation is flattening, which could mean a Fed interest rate cut in September. Today’s release of US prisoners from Russia is an unexpected plus.
But war between Iran and Israel? A jump in unemployment or inflation? A third party candidate who gains more traction? Violence against one or the other candidate? Catastrophic harm to US troops abroad? All of these downers?
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Here is something AI can do for you
An Italian friend, Vincenzo Marzetti, runs a start up called Zero In. He offered to generate using AI a summary of my recent book, Strengthening International Regimes. He also suggested a video for marketing purposes.
While the risks of AI are all too apparent, this product provides a clear illustration of some benefits. I didn’t need to spend hours in a studio recording the video. Vincenzo used an unrelated sample of me I found on Youtube to generate my image and voice. The result sounds much like me, even if I am not usually so still-headed.
Zero In is already selling to companies that generate videos of this sort to conserve on high-priced executive time. But high priced authors might also like to conserve on time. And authors who don’t want to bother with the marketing side. The AI summary of my book was particularly impressive. I needed to do little editing.
The problem of course is that bad actors can use this technology for nefarious purposes, especially in an election year. But that is even true of my phone number, which is getting numerous calls these days from non-English speaking scammers. We somehow need to enable the benefits of AI while dis-incentivizing the abuses and risks.
That is not going to be easy, as only people who understand the technology will be able to anticipate the problems and optimize the response. I argue in my book that an “epistemic community” engaging in what Daniel Kahneman called “adversarial collaboration” can do this best. The more usual adversarial process in courts and administrative proceedings will have difficulty keeping up and getting it right. Click here or on the picture at the right to get your own copy of the book!
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Assassinations could mean war with Iran
Israel killed Fuad Shukr, military deputy to Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, in Beirut yesterday with a targeted air strike. Though they have not confirmed their involvement, the Israelis apparently also killed Ismail Haniyeh, political leader of Hamas in Tehran today, likely also with an air strike. There is I suppose some possibility that this was not their doing, but rather an Iranian maneuver due to displeasure with his leadership of Hamas, but that is 100% speculation.
The ultimate impact of these two assassinations, if such they be, is uncertain. Sometimes decapitation works. Sometimes it doesn’t. But the success of both operations tells us a good deal about Lebanon, Iran, and Israel.
Lebanon and Iran have weak air defenses
That Lebanon has ineffective air defenses is not surprising. The country has been on the ropes at least since the Beirut port explosion in 2020, but even before that its army could not match the Israelis on the ground or in the air. Lebanese Hizbollah is the main threat to Israel from the north. Its air defenses are improving. But the killing of Shukr demonstrates that Israel has the intelligence capability to track Hizbollah leadership and the precision strike capability to hit a single building in crowded southern Beirut without apparently activating either Lebanon’s or Hizbollah’s air defense.
The same is true, and even more impressive, for Iran, if in fact the Israelis did it. Haniyeh was killed in a residence facility of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The Israelis would have had to track him there, evade Iranian air defenses, and strike accurately at a distance of almost 1000 miles from Jerusalem. Iranian inability to prevent this in the aftermath of the presidential inauguration yesterday suggests weak air defenses. Or a special forces unit might have penetrated on the ground.
Israel wants war with Iran
The Israeli willingness to undertake these two assassinations, if in fact Haniyeh was their doing, would suggest that Prime Minister Netanyahu is prepared to risk escalation of the already simmering regional conflict. The two assassinations may well provoke another direct attack from Iran, which tried and failed in April to punish Israel for an earlier Beirut assassination. Escalation this time could be rapid.
There is no question that Tehran backs Hamas, Hizbollah, and the Yemeni Houthis. This is the much-vaunted “axis of resistance,” whose leaders were in Tehran for the inauguration of a new president. Netanyahu earlier this month in his speech in Congress blamed Iran bluntly for their activities. He appears to want a direct confrontation with Tehran, rather than dealing only with its allies.
The Americans do not, but what they can do about it at this point is not clear. Netanyahu sees an opportunity to damage Israel’s enemies while the Arab states stand by. They too want to see Iran diminished. He likely figures the Americans will be pleased if Israel is successful. He appears little concerned with the possibility of failure.
Implications for the US
It will be hard for the US to stay aloof if Netanyahu is successful in provoking Iran into entering the regional war. The Middle East would once again have to take priority. Ukraine and China would have to wait. American military supplies to Israel would be vital.
An Israel/Iran war would likely affect the US presidential race. Kamala Harris would find Democrats divided. The aging leadership in Congress would want to back Israel. But many Democrats, like most Israelis, want Israel to end the war in Gaza by cutting a hostage deal with Hamas. Donald Trump would gain some advantage in the presidential race, even if his running mate has wanted to shift attention from the Middle East to the Pacific. American popular opinion will heavily favor Israel if there is war with Iran.
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Trump is in trouble for now
Less than a week after President Biden withdrew from the race, Donald Trump is in trouble. Vice President Harris has momentum. His best move lately was a round with pro golfer Bryson DeChambeau. I doubt that grabs a lot of middle class voters. She is dancing all over the internet and mobilizing the Democratic base in battleground states. The latest poll shows she has erased Trump’s margin over Biden.
Trump’s problems
Trump’s campaign was entirely geared towards running against an aging Joe Biden. His incessant complaints about the Biden family and the President’s cognitive abilities had gotten some traction. Biden was still a point or two from Trump in national polling, but he was lagging in most of the battlegrounds.
Trump’s attacks against Harris are not landing outside his base. Calling her an extremist and a liar just isn’t working well with either the mainstream media or independents. What are her extremist views? What is she lying about? The country seems tired of Trump, who is now the brunt of remarks about age. At 78, he is almost 20 years older than Harris and only three younger than Biden. He commits many verbal faux pas and delivers lengthy, rambling, incoherent speeches.
He also makes his assault on democracy explicit:
Trump chose as a running mate a relative unknown first-term senator, JD Vance, who has bizarre views on many topics. Just for starters, he wants people with children to get more votes. Trump is already showing regrets for that pick.
Harris’ pluses
Harris has come out of the gate remarkably fast. Within days, she gained the votes needed for nomination at the Democratic convention in Chicago next month. Her candidacy has raised a mountain of money from both small and big donors. “We’re not going back” is her pitch, a clever reference to Trump’s chaotic term in the presidency. She is aggressively campaigning and also considering her own VP pick. It would be hard for her to go wrong. The Democratic lineup has half a dozen highly qualified officials from swing states.
Biden was trailing but still far from defeat. Harris appears to have inherited his support. She is also gaining with independents and those who might have voted for third party candidates. Her support among women and younger voters is better than Biden’s.
Harris in her remarks after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu proved adept. Without shifting away from Biden’s support for Israel’s right to defend itself, she forcefully emphasized her sympathy with ordinary Palestinians and the need to end the Gaza war. “I will not be silenced,” she vowed. Netanyahu will do everything he can to help Trump. But Harris will have taken an important step in healing the rift within her own party and in regaining Arab and Muslim American votes in Michigan and other battlegrounds.
Towards the goal
There are still more than 100 days to the election November 5. But for now Harris has the ball and is moving it fast to the goal line. Expect Trump to react with all the lies and dirty tricks he can muster. He will continue to call her a liar and extremist. He’ll have doubts about her eligibility to run, as she is the daughter of immigrants from Jamaica and India. His campaign will resurrect controversial positions she took in the past. Trump is trying to get out of the debate with her. Who knows what else he’ll pull. But if she can hold on to the ball, a goal is inevitable.
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