A real incursion with an unclear purpose
Ukrainian forces have penetrated upwards of 15 kilometers or so into the Kursk oblast of Russia north of Kharkiv. This is the most serious Ukrainian penetration of Russian territory during the current war. Milbloggers claim the Russians are trying to counter the incursion with new recruits. They will likely also need to weaken defenses somewhere along the more or less 600-mile front to respond inKursksion.
The balance is shifting
The past year of fighting has seen little change overall. The Russians have gained marginally, especially in the east. They have recently been pushed back from Kharkiv (though not all the way to the border), where they had made some progress in the spring. US failure to keep up the supply of weapons and ammunition last winter damaged Ukrainian morale and defensive capabilities. So too did European hesitancy about economic aid.
Now that economic aid and military supplies are flowing once again, Ukrainian morale and capability are on the mend. F16s are arriving. Better air defense and longer-range artillery and missiles will enhance Ukrainian capabilities. The Kursk incursion will no doubt raise morale further, if it is successful.
Russia’s supplies of stockpiled weapons are running low, but North Korea and Iran are providing missiles and drones. The Russian army has manpower issues, but arguably less serious than those of Ukraine. Still, Vladimir Vladimirovich is not sounding confident, or offering to help the Kursk Governor:
Still, the objective is unclear
Ukraine’s military objective is still unclear. Kyiv has said nothing. A rail line important to supplying Russian troops farther south? The Kursk nuclear power plant? Capture of soldiers or territory that could be traded for Ukrainian territory or soldiers? Encirclement of the Russian units to the south that had fought their way close to Kharkiv? Forcing the Russians to weaken offensive and defensive operations farther south? Encouraging international supporters to hasten arms supplies? Encouraging Putin’s opponents in Moscow and across the Russian Federation to confront him? It still seems to be anyone’s guess.
Ukraine has committed elements of four experienced brigades to the effort, which suggests this is not merely a cross-border raid. It remains to be seen, however, whether the Ukrainians will seek to hold the territory they take. That would be a daunting task, assuming the population is still loyal to Moscow. The population in present-day Kursk oblast overwhelmingly identifies as Russian, not Ukrainian.
War is not math
War, unlike mathematics, has uncertain outcomes, brought about in unexpected ways. The Ukrainians have rolled their dice. We’ll have to wait and see what the result is.
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More and wider war is inevitable, unless…
Prime Minister Netanyahu sent a clear signal with the assassinations of Hizbollah military leader Fouad Shukur in Beirut and Hamas negotiator Ismail Haniyeh last week in Tehran. Israel is not interested in a negotiated end to the war in Gaza and wants to widen the hostilities. Hamas has now signaled with the naming of Yahya Sinwar as its overall leader that it too is prepared to continue the fight. Sinwar is a hardliner compared to the more pragmatic Haniyeh.
More war
Israel has been trying to kill Sinwar since the October 7 attack that he launched against the Israeli communities bordering Gaza. It has so far failed and will no doubt now redouble its efforts. Sinwar advocates killing Jews and retaking all of Palestine, which he regards as an eternal Muslim endowment (waqf), back from them. He is a firm believer in violence rather than negotiations. He has demonstrated little or no interest in the suffering of ordinary Palestinians in Gaza. To him, their suffering is necessary collateral damage.
We should expect Sinwar to continue to hide and the Israelis to continue to search for him. He is a maximalist and will not yield as long as he lives. Finding him in the Gaza tunnels will require either luck or months more destruction.
Wider war
The wider war has been going on now for months. It includes rockets, drones, and artillery fire across the Lebanon/Israel border as well as rocket and drone attacks from the Houthis in Yemen against shipping in the Red Sea, US navy ships, and Israel. This wider war will continue and likely intensify.
No Arab states have indicated an inclination to join in the military offensive against Israel. Turkish President Erdogan has made some vague threats, but he is unlikely to make good on them. The US has pledged to help defend Israel if Iran attacks, but not to attack Iran in retaliation. So the wider war is not as wide as it could potentially get.
No doubt a less visible, less military war is ongoing as well. That war involves intelligence agencies, proxy forces, and individual saboteurs and assassins. The Iranians are particularly good at the proxy forces element. They have used Hamas, Hizbollah, and the Houthis to harass Israel. They seem far less adept at the intelligence piece. The Israelis have killed and sabotaged Iranian assets repeatedly for many years.
Negotiations are at an impasse, but…
The Americans continue to hope for a negotiated end to the current fighting in Gaza. They hope that would tone down, if not eliminate, the Hizbollah and Houthi attacks. It would also provide an opportunity to exchange prisoners/hostages and perhaps begin reconstruction.
They are likely to be disappointed. So long as Netanyahu and Sinwar hold power in their respective communities, the Gaza war will continue. They both need the conflict to survive. Nor is it clear that Hizbollah and especially the Houthis would stop their attacks on Israel if the Gaza war ends. The Middle East is now fighting a long war, not a short one.
The solution lies with the people of Gaza and Israel. If they decide the time has come, Sinwar and Netanyahu can be brought down, as Sheikh Hasina was in Bangladesh in recent days. Gazans show little inclination to topple Sinwar, not least because it would be risky for anyone trying. The situation in Israel is more promising. Most Israelis want to see an end to Netanyahu’s reign. They need to figure out how to make it happen.
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Read this to not be surprised
A few challenges today to the accepted wisdom:
- Iran and its allies will not necessarily attack Israel with missiles and drones.
- Whatever they do may not come soon.
- The prisoner exchange with Russia was a good thing, but it will have bad consequences.
- The American election outcome isn’t as uncertain as the current polling suggests.
The impending Iranian attack may not be what you think
I have no inside information, but I won’t be surprised if Iran chooses something other than an air raid to attack Israel. While such a raid could do a lot of damage if it gets past Israeli defenses, it would not be a mirror image of the Israeli attack that killed Ismail Haniyeh. It would also likely cause a lot of civilian casualties, including among the 18% of Israel’s population that is Muslim.
The Iranians may instead try to kill a Israeli high-ranking target. Assassinating a negotiator or general in Jerusalem would create real fear among Israelis. But it would not give much reason for the US to join in a strike against Iran, which is what Prime Minister Netanyahu wants.
In the meanwhile, the Iranians are enjoying the massive and expensive deployment of American assets as well as the mobilization strain on the Israelis. Without striking, Tehran is forcing its enemies to run up their bills and exhaust their soldiers and sailors. The longer Iran waits, the higher the costs.
Exchanging prisoners creates a moral hazard
The exchange of prisoners last week between Russia and various Western states has to be counted a good thing. It freed a lot of innocent people.
But it also freed some dreadful criminals, including a Russian assassin. That will have the unfortunate effect of encouraging President Putin to take more hostages that he can exchange for still more Russian miscreants. I’ve been to Moscow three times (1974, 1994, and 2014), so twice when it was the capital of the Soviet Union. I would not go again now. While the risk to any individual American might be small, Putin’s Russia is more likely to arbitrarily arrest Americans than the Soviets.
Russia isn’t the only country I would hesitate to visit these days. China also poses much greater risks than in the past. Iran specializes in incarcerating mainly Iranian Americans. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Yemen, Afghanistan, Egypt, and Mozambique also hold Americans for less than good reasons. Something like 40 Americans are still unjustly held abroad, despite significant successes.
It goes without saying that Americans traveling abroad should take care to follow the local laws. But even if you do, there is an increasing likelihood of unjust detention. I wouldn’t visit Russia, China, or Iran today without some guarantees, which would not be easy to get. I even hesitate to go to Serbia, which I visited more than a few times during the Milosevic regime. But President Vucic is a student of President Putin. And Vucic knows who I am and what I write.
Harris is winning
The past two weeks have exhibited a remarkable outpouring of pro-Harris sentiment in the American electorate. She is beating Trump in national polls, and has drawn even in battleground states. The horse race isn’t over until November, but if she can keep rising in the polls, Trump is done.
I expect Harris to own this month. She will pick a good vice presidential candidate, likely today. All six candidates are far more experienced and more moderate than J.D. Vance, Trump’s big mistake. The Democratic Convention August 19-22 in Chicago will display a unified and mobilized party determined to win, even if the risk of unruly pro-Palestinian demonstrations is real.
A lot depends on whether the economy is landing hard or soft from the COVID-19 recovery. But I am still hoping the Fed will get it somewhere near right, despite yesterday’s big stock market retreat.
The outcome of an American election is happily unpredictable. But Harris can win. I’ll do my best to try to make that come true. I’m inclined to relocate to Atlanta, where I have a house down the street from my older son’s family, for much of October. I’ll volunteer to get the vote out and ensure proper election administration. I vote in DC, not Georgia, but more than 90% of DC will vote for Harris. Georgia is one of the battlegrounds. That’s where I would like to be.
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When you are in a hole, stop digging
The world awaits retaliation against Israel for its assassinations last week. Both were relatively surgical affairs that killed the military commander of Lebanese Hizbollah in Beirut (as well as some women and children) and the political spokesman of Hamas in Tehran. Expectations for retaliation focus on a large missile and drone attack from all directions.
I doubt that. If successful, such a raid might mobilize the US to join Israel in a further escalation. That is something the Iranians don’t want.
It need not be an air raid
Israel has seemed invulnerable for decades. Its sophisticated air defenses have prevented thousands of missiles and drones from reaching population centers.
Iran and its partners might be better served to assassinate one or more major Israeli political or military figures. That would be a symmetrical response that some might argue does not justify further escalation. It would also strike fear into the hearts of every Jew in Israel. The only major Jewish figure murdered in modern Israel was Prime Minister Itzhak Rabin, killed by a Jew.
The Israelis have demonstrated that they can track and strike major figures in the capitals of their adversaries. Is it really possible that the “axis of resistance” has not developed a comparable capability inside Israel?
The capability need not necessarily be technologically sophisticated. Knives, guns, and grenades can be smuggled and murderers deployed or hired. Targets of opportunity should not be difficult to find in a small and relatively open society.
Iran has assets it doesn’t want to lose
The Iranians will decide. Hizbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis may have been relatively free to do what they wanted since October 7, but no doubt Tehran is now coordinating the retaliation.
Iran has reached nuclear threshold status. It is able to build a nuclear bomb within weeks with material in its possession. Prime Minister Netanyahu is looking for an excuse to damage that capability. In April, the Israelis demonstrated their ability to reach Iran’s nuclear facilities with drones that went undetected. Iran may want to hide its hand in the retaliation, mirroring Israel’s refusal to confirm its hand in the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Netanyahu wins, Israel loses
A successful assassination or two, or a successful air raid, will put the Israelis again on the spot. President Biden has already made clear to Netanyahu that the US will not back further escalation. If Netanyahu pays heed, the cycle will end. If not, it will continue.
That said, Netanyahu has already accomplished several of his own goals. The Gaza talks can go nowhere until the escalation ends. He does not want the ceasefire/prisoner exchange that Washington is insisting on. The Democrats risk a major war during the election campaign, giving advantage to Trump, whom Netanyahu favors. The crisis will enable him to stay in power at least until October, when the Knesset returns from recess, and likely beyond.
Israel is the big loser. The ferocious October 7 attack was far from an existential threat, but Netanyahu and many Israelis have characterized it as such. That justified the ferocious response in Gaza that has in turn led to the assassinations and potential war with Iran and its partners. That really is an existential threat. When you are in a hole, stop digging.
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Tunisia gets one more chance
I know Tunisia is not in the headlines, but this statement by presidential candidates struck me. They are trying to preserve what little is left of democratic norms created during the “Arab spring,” which originated in Tunisia. I wish them well, but current President Saied is not making it easy.
Our country will be undergoing an upcoming election in Tunisia during the month of October of this year, and violations have multiplied, affecting most serious candidates who are entitled to compete in the elections. These candidates are faced with restrictions with the aim of excluding them in order to clear the way for a specific candidate, which is affecting the very credibility of the process.
In light of this situation, which undermines the simplest elements of fair competition, the undersigned figures affirm that, while they may compete in the electoral process, they share common national and democratic values, as well as respect for the people as the ultimate decision-makers in choosing their representatives, and commitment to ensuring the integrity of these elections as a fundamental condition for their success. Furthermore, we emphasize the following points:
1: We denounce the arbitrary and security harassment and restrictions that have targeted many of those involved in the electoral campaigns while collecting voluntary endorsements, to the extent of arresting many election coordinators and snatching the endorsements they held. We hold the Minister of the Interior and the Secretary of State for Security responsible for this lack of neutrality and we demand the release of the detainees and the return of the endorsements that were confiscated.
2: We stress that depriving candidates running for elections of their right to obtain a criminal record card, which is essential to run for office, is a violation of a constitutional right. This practice allows for the Ministry of Interior to interfere in the electoral process and exploit the state’s agencies in an illegal manner which contradicts the most basic requirements of political and civil rights. We further stress that it could have been possible for the electoral commission to request this card directly from the Ministry of Interior to avoid such deviation and abuses.
3: We call for the immediate issuance of a Card No. 3 to all candidates and remind that deprivation of civil and political rights can only occur through a final and supplementary judicial ruling, which does not apply to the candidates.
4: We hold the electoral commission, which announced full jurisdiction over this process, responsible for complicating the procedures and conditions, contrary to the applicable texts and electoral law, in addition to the serious violations recorded and the suspicious silence that accompanied them in the past days despite the cries of alarm and denunciation raised by many candidates. It considers that this unjustified silence from the commission amounts to collusion with a hidden agenda aimed at turning the electoral race into a farce and a crime against the Tunisian people.
5: We call on the electoral commission to extend the period for collecting endorsements, in respect of the electoral calendar, considering that the provision of endorsements to candidates did not effectively begin until July 10. The commission must also ensure the freedom of citizens to endorse any candidate while respecting their personal data, away from intimidation and coercion.
6: All Tunisian media outlets are urged to fulfill their role in informing and discussing electoral programs and organizing debates among candidates in a spirit of objectivity, fairness, and equal opportunities. Public media, funded by taxpayers’ money, is required to move away from being a presidential media organ by opening platforms both centrally and regionally in an atmosphere of freedom, independence, and equality, while respecting professional ethics and the public’s right to access reliable information pertaining to all candidates.
7: The administrative court is called upon to fulfill its historical role in light of the deliberate absence of the constitutional court, in order to avoid any unilateral interpretations of the constitution and the applicable laws that may align with the desires of some to exclude most serious candidates in favor of a specific candidate.
8: We call on the Tunisian judiciary to uphold justice and fairness and to operate with independence without any political pressure, and to allow individuals imprisoned in political cases their constitutional right to run for elections. We emphasize that the Tunisian people alone have the authority to exclude any candidate from the race, and this should be done through the ballot boxes.
9: We call for the neutralization of the administration and the prohibition of using state institutions in general, and particularly the posts of mayors, local officials, and governors, to gather endorsements for a specific candidate and to be utilized in any electoral campaign.
10: We call on the military and security institutions to fulfill their national duties and maintain neutrality in all matters surrounding the electoral process, in order to ensure the protection of ballot boxes from any possible manipulation, that is provided that the objective conditions for conducting fair multiparty elections are met, in which everyone can compete freely and without restrictions.
Finally, we urge the Tunisian people to exercise their citizenship and constitutional rights in endorsing and voting for any candidate they deem worthy, in freedom to choose the next president of the country, thus blocking attempts to drain the electoral scene and impose guardianship and exclusion to pave the way for a single candidate. We insist that democratic elections are the only means capable of extricating the country from its political crisis and resolving conflicts based on programs and ideas, rather than on defamation and exclusion.
We further stress that if there is a lack of minimum respect for the basic conditions for fair competition, and if there is a tendency to use official institutions to directly and blatantly influence the nomination process or future stages of the electoral process, while ensuring equality in dealing with all competitors, then we fear that the elections may turn into a mere formal play lacking any credibility, which we refuse to be a part of. This compels us to keep all civic options open to ensure the protection of the electoral process from any deviations it might encounter.
Long live Tunisia, free and proud.
Signatures:
Safi Said
Dhakir Lahidheb
Abdellatif Mekki
Imed Daimi
Ghazi Chaouachi
Kamel Akrout
Lotfi Mraihi
Mourad Massoudi
Nizar Chaari
Neji Jelloul
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Harris is gaining while Trump steps in it
Donald Trump managed yesterday to turn an interview with the National Association of Black Journalists into a campaign debacle. He claimed that Kamala Harris, who went to historically Black Howard University and became a member of a Black sorority, had not always identified as Black but rather as Indian. She in fact is Black and Indian. Her father was a Black Jamaican and her mother was an Indian Tamil. She grew up identifying as both.
Why would a presidential candidate even mention a competitor’s racial origins? Why would he do so in a demonstrably false way? What did he hope to gain from this strange assertion?
What did he think he was doing?
Trump’s faux pas could be just a mistake. His cognitive capacity is in doubt. He often says “weird” (and offensive) things. This could just be another one.
That is hard to believe. His campaign has surely briefed him extensively on Harris’ background and biography. He should know by now where she went to university. He has a particular interest in immigration and had for years challenged Barack Obama’s illegibility for the presidency based on the false claim that he was born in Kenya. Trump certainly knows the origins of Harris’ immigrant parents.
Trump was trying to cast aspersions. He was suggesting that she had been dishonest about her Black identity and is now only using it for political purposes. Trump may have hoped to suggest that she, like Obama, was not a legitimate candidate. He wanted to drive a wedge between Black voters and Harris, hoping to prevent her from reversing the modest flow of (mostly male) Black voters the polls show he has gained.
Failure is its own reward
He failed miserably. His audience knew that Harris identifies as Black as well as Indian. The country knows too. This faux pas makes him look worse in the eyes of Harris supporters and independents without gaining him much among his own fans. They already knew he is an insensitive racist and like him for it.
Harris has now drawn even with Trump in national polling and is improving in battleground states. Biden before withdrawing his candidacy had been running consistently behind Trump. Harris’ campaign has energized Democrats while the Republican vice-presidential candidate, JD Vance, has been dragging down Trump. He told the Black journalists it doesn’t matter who the vice presidential candidate is.
The election is still a long way off
Anything can happen between now and November 5. But for now Harris is gaining and Trump is lagging. Harris will name her vice presidential candidate in the next few days. The Democratic Convention August 19-22 should give her a bump, provided demonstrations don’t ruin it. The economy is weakening and inflation is flattening, which could mean a Fed interest rate cut in September. Today’s release of US prisoners from Russia is an unexpected plus.
But war between Iran and Israel? A jump in unemployment or inflation? A third party candidate who gains more traction? Violence against one or the other candidate? Catastrophic harm to US troops abroad? All of these downers?
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