So much to keep track of!
So I thought a quick update on the revolutions of 2011 might be in order:
- Libya: Gaddafi holding on in Tripoli, where his forces indulge in random killings, but most of the rest of the country seems to be in rebel hands. Tribes and a hodge-podge of local authorities seem to be the mainstay of law and order, insofar as it exists. The army is split. Lots of high level defections. The Americans have finally imposed unilateral sanctions freezing assets and banning travel. The UN Security Council is still debating its draft, which may have to lose the referral to the International Criminal Court in order to get past India, China and Russia (none are states parties to the ICC).
- Yemen: Protests have grown dramatically with adherence by some important tribes, President Saleh took the Gaddafi vow to fight to the last drop of blood, and the opposition seems intent on continuing despite Saleh’s vows to leave office in 2013 and not install his son.
- Egypt: Big demonstration yesterday to keep pressure on the military, force out the prime minister, who is Mubarak’s buddy, and end the state of emergency, which the military has promised to do once order is restored.
- Bahrain: Another big demo, but the monarchy clearly committed for the moment to avoiding violence. An important Bahraini Shiite leader returned to the country from exile and was allowed to speak.
- Tunisia: Protesters Friday pressed for faster change. Pro-Ben Ali youth rioted Saturday. Violence in both instances. The good guys should really wear white hats and maintain non-violent discipline, as that will help to distinguish them from the bad guys.
- Iraq: At least eight killed around the country in the first big demonstrations, mainly by undisciplined security forces. The Speaker of Parliament says he supports the demonstrators’ right to protest, Prime Minister Maliki tried to fend off both protests and criticism, and Ayatollah Sistani weighed in on the side of the improved public services and an end to corruption. Sistani is the one really worth listening to, but he hasn’t got a lot of influence in Kurdistan, where violent demonstrations continue.
- Jordan: A big, peaceful demonstration Friday, but big is much smaller (4000) than in other places. The call is still far more for reform than for regime change.
- Iran: The regime still has things “under control,” mistreating its own people even as it praises the rebellions in Arab countries. The video at that link, by the way, demonstrates a lack of discipline on both sides of the confrontation, but the text is useful for understanding why demonstrations in Iran have been less than fully successful.
Overall: lots of ups and downs this week, but it is clear that few real dictators will survive much longer. The question of what will replace them is still an open one, but it is looking more and more as if re-imposing autocracies will be nigh on impossible. The people simply won’t stand for it. More power to them!
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The UN begins to roll
It is starting to look as if the UN Security Council will actually do something about Libya soon. Its draft resolution includes asset freeze, arms embargo, travel ban. There may also be movement towards a no-fly zone, despite reported opposition in the State Department. Michael Knights has treated that proposition well (http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3315–sorry, just can’t get their links to work right). In tears at the UNSC, the Libyan Perm Rep (Ambassador to the UN in New York) denounced his long friendship with Gaddafi and pleaded for action. The Libyan mission in Geneva has also defected to the protesters, as have other Libyan diplomatic missions.
Meanwhile, the situation in Libya is confused. Gaddafi apparently appeared in Green square:
His forces continued to murder protesters, but rebels made progress outside Tripoli, especially in the east. While his position today seems precarious at best, it cannot be excluded that Gaddafi will reestablish himself in the capital, but if he does it will only prolong Libya’s suffering. His son, Saif al Islam, is apparently offering to negotiate, claiming he is holding back the army.
While UN action today will not likely have any immediate effect, it is important that the forces loyal to Gaddafi begin to understand that there is no future with the regime. The possibility of prosecution for the crimes being committed now has to be made real.
Gaddafi and his sons seem determined, as Saif put it today, “to live and die in Libya.” It will be better for Libya and the rest of the world if both can be done quickly.
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The UN needs to hustle
Today is Friday, when the demonstrators will try again to assemble in Tripoli. It has been Libya week, all week. The situation has gone from bad to worse. Claiming that the protesters have been drugged by Osama bin Laden, Gaddafi is increasingly delusional and homicidal (forget the picture–it’s the audio you want to hear):
Many Libyans are courageously disloyal to him, but the international community is doing nothing effective. I hope to have to revise that last phrase, but I see no reason to do so yet.
President Obama was slow to react, apparently because of concern for American citizens in Libya. When he finally said something, it was forceful and clear, especially on holding people to account. But there is no clear course of action yet. Asset freeze? Travel ban? Arms embargo? International Criminal Court referral by the Security Council?
A no-fly zone has pros and cons. I wouldn’t want to waste a lot of effort discussing it at the UN Security Council or at NATO, but I do hope the necessary 6th Fleet assets have been moved into position. Washington needs to be ready for all contingencies.
The last best hope is that Gaddafi’s loyalists will abandon him to his fate (or commit him to it). There have been quite a few high-level defections, so that does not seem completely out of the question. It is difficult to believe someone won’t try.
One mistake the rebel forces are making (hard to call them “protesters” any longer) is violence against the non-Libyan paramilitaries that Gaddafi has imported for protection. I realize he pays them well, but you don’t want them to stick with Gaddafi because they also fear for their lives. A promise of back pay and a ticket home would weaken mercenary resolve faster than killing them.
The Administration is apparently defining Libya as a humanitarian and human rights crisis. If this is an effort to make it easier to invoke “responsibility to protect,” so be it. But in my way of think Gaddafi’s actions are a clear threat to international peace and security. The Security Council is on the hook for this one, whether it likes it or not. The Russians and Chinese apparently asked yesterday for more information about what is happening on the ground. The Chinese should talk to some of the 12,000 citizens they have already evacuated.
That said, it is a good idea to try to send in a UN inquiry, a proposition that will apparently be discussed tomorrow at the UN Human Rights Commission. This is far better than the previous proposition, which was a discussion Monday.
The UN needs to hustle. People are dying.
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Stop the civil war
The Gaddafi family this morning seems bent on civil war. It is using the Libyan army and hired thugs to empty the streets of Tripoli, especially Green square, and to hold the relatively few towns in the west that have not yet fallen to the protesters (or should we call them the rebels?). Despite high level defections, the Colonel and his sons are using military force (tanks, RPGs, in addition to aircraft and helicopters earlier in the week) against the civilian population.
The risk here is civil war. Already what has occurred could leave Libya with a bitter legacy of murder and mayhem, now against the population, but likely in the future against the regime. Or, worse, the regime could survive, reimposing order and slaughtering its opponents.
President Obama was clear enough yesterday that Gaddafi’s behavior is unacceptable, but the Administration still seems to lack a robust plan for stopping it. Sending the Secretary of State to a Monday meeting of the UN Human Rights Commission is not going to do it–that’s a body that has disappointed human rights concerns repeatedly. And Monday is still a long way off.
It looks now as if the best hope to avoid the worst is action from within Gaddafi’s closest circle. Who knows whether that is a real possibility, but the high-level defections that have already occurred suggest it might be. It might also be useful to make it clear to the non-Libyans defending Gaddafi that they are welcome to defect–so far the rebels appear to have been more inclined to kill them.
I am still puzzled by the lack of asset and travel freezes, as well as an arms embargo. Sure, they would be mostly symbolic at this point, but symbols count. And where is the Sixth Fleet?
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Good news for Kosovo, but tough talks ahead
I count as good news both the formation of the second Hashim Thaci government in Kosovo as well as the conviction of Serbia’s former assistant Interior Minister of war crimes and crimes against humanity by the Hague Tribunal.
Of course the story is more complicated than that. Thaci still faces accusations, but little evidence and no indictment, for serious crimes associated with organ trafficking that allegedly occurred in the aftermath of the NATO/Yugoslavia war more than a decade ago. His choice of Behgjet Pacolli as President of Kosovo, essential to gaining a majority in parliament, has also raised questions, as Pacolli’s construction business prospered doing work in Russia, which has opposed Kosovo’s independence. He was Both Pacolli and Thaci gained their positions with razor thin majorities.
Whatever the allegations and the size of their majority, their elections, and the appointment of a Serb as deputy prime minister, demonstrate that Kosovo’s institutions are functioning, if occasionally with difficulty. The need to repeat December’s elections in several municipalities showed both the challenges governance faces in Pristina and the capacity of its institutions to correct mistakes.
That said, Thaci and Pacolli have a difficult road ahead. Declaring yourself ready for talks with Belgrade and preparing for them seriously are two different things. Will they go to talks with Belgrade as a government with a razor-thin majority? Or will Pristina form a broader negotiating team, as it did for the Ahtisaari negotiations? The naming of the talented and tough-minded Edita Tahiri to lead the Kosovo team bodes well.
I hear the Europeans will focus in the first instance on customs on the Serbia/Kosovo border (boundary to the Serbs). This is an issue with virtues: there could be real benefits to the Kosovo, if Serbia agrees to accept its products. In addition, cooperation on customs implies some level of recognition that the authorities you are dealing with are properly constituted and have at least some sovereign attributes. There could also be some real benefits to Serbia, if smuggling comes under better control and if the European Union is willing to count the outcome of the dialogue as sufficient to allow Serbia to proceed to candidacy status.
But if the EU is going to go that far, Pristina will need to be certain that Serbia cannot become an EU member without accepting and recognizing Kosovo as a sovereign state. Several EU members have now said as much, but agreement on that position at 27 is difficult because of the five EU members that have not recognized Kosovo. Pristina is going to need some real statecraft to ensure that EU interest in accelerating Serbia’s membership does not come at Kosovo’s expense.
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Libya is not Egypt or Tunisia
Gaddafi may be mad, but he is not always wrong. Libya is not Egypt or Tunisia. It is much more dangerous, both for its own citizens and for the wider world.
Gaddafi has chosen the option Ben Ali, Mubarak and the Bahraini monarchy shied away from: brutal crackdown. He is using non-Libyans in large part for the purpose, since he can’t rely on Libyans (a good sign, ironically, of the effectiveness of the protests). “Mercenaries,” as the international press calls them, can be expected to do what you pay them to do, especially if you pay them well and they are surrounded by a hostile population not their own. Gaddafi is trying to re-instill fear, which is absolutely necessary if he is to remain in power.
It is difficult to see how that is possible. He has already lost large parts of the country, including Benghazi in the east but also large parts of the west and south. A good part of the police and army are joining the protesters. The Interior Minister has resigned, as have quite a few diplomats at missions abroad. Tripoli seems far from secure for the regime, though protesters seem to be keeping out of the streets today. Friday is likely when the challenge will come, as it is difficult to keep people from going to mosque.
The question then is how much more damage Gaddafi will wreck before the violence gets him. It could be quite a bit, as he is still well-armed. The Italians are letting out that as many as 1000 have already died, and tens of thousands are fleeing (both Libyans and foreigners). Reports from Tripoli suggest corpses are being left in the street intentionally, a warning to would-be protesters. Oil production is grinding to a halt, and oil prices have bumped strongly upwards. This spreads economic damage from Libya worldwide, at a delicate moment in the global economic recovery.
How can the pain and suffering be shortened? First and foremost, it needs to be made clear to Gaddafi’s loyalists that they will be held responsible for what they do on his behalf. This has the virtue of making them think twice about carrying out his orders. It also has the defect of making those who do carry out the orders even more determined not to fail.
Second, it is important to cut off his resources. This means freezing assets, banning travel and imposing an arms embargo. No regime loyalist should be able to move a dime outside Libya, and the only travel allowed to them should be for purposes of defection.
I am not a fan of John Kerry’s proposal to stop his oil exports. They are likely to stop anyway because the companies will close down production until they feel the situation has stabilized. With large parts of the country already liberated, choking the whole country to get at one man is just not smart politics. And closing down oil production will jack up world prices even more, causing global economic damage, providing Gaddafi with a windfall if he is able to bank the proceeds, and making allies who stand to lose a good deal from the situation (like the Italians) quiver.
No fly zones are notoriously ineffectual in preventing harm to individual citizens. Strafing and bombing from the air is just not necessary. Most days (but maybe not on Friday), Gaddafi can do just as well sending out thugs with AK47’s. Aircraft were not needed for genocide in Rwanda.
I do like the idea of human rights monitors. Rumor has it that Gaddafi is letting in some of the international press, which is good if it happens. He is betting that he can now contain the situation, at least in Tripoli, with minimal use of force. Let him bet on that with human rights professionals as well as with journalists. Anything that helps Libya’s citizens be less afraid will accelerate the end of the regime.
The international reaction to events in Libya so far has been disappointing. The Arab League has suspended Libyan membership, which admittedly is more than it often does in crisis situation. The UN Security Council statement from yesterday is weak. Its only virtue is the mention of human rights monitors and accountability. President Obama has not yet said anything, even if Secretary of State Clinton has vigorously deplored what is going on.
I am hoping that after today’s evacuation of Amcits (those are U.S. citizens) that the Administration will find not only its voice but also its muscle. The Sixth Fleet should be moving assets towards Libya and getting ready for action if Gaddafi has enough of an army left to send it against cities that have already fallen to the demonstrators.
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