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The Security Council throws a wet noodle

Lifting from CNN, here is what the UN Security Council said today about Libya:

…condemned the violence and use of force against civilians, deplored the repression against peaceful demonstrators and expressed deep regret at the deaths of hundreds of civilians…[and urged the authorities]…to act with restraint, to respect human rights and international humanitarian law and to allow immediate access to international human rights monitors and humanitarian agencies….[also] underscored the need to hold to account those responsible for attacks, including by forces under their control, on civilians.

This is about as weak as it gets, except for the part about human rights monitors and accountability. The question is whether there is a real plan behind these words, or just hot air.

The UN should be asking the Libyan government urgently to allow unarmed human rights monitors into Libya. This was what was done when the Serbs were misbehaving in Kosovo. Though it was too little too late, it focused attention on the problem and gave the international community some leverage over the Milosevic regime.

Accountability is also something that requires action, not just words. Where is the commitment to gathering evidence and bringing an indictment?

No travel bans or asset freezes? No arms embargo? I understand not going right away for the no-fly zone, but what’s the justification for not acting on these issues? Is this really all we can get out of the Security Council, even when the Libyan delegation to the UN has defected and what we need is swift action?

A timely and decisive response to madness

In an extraordinary display of bozotic madness and ferocious bellicose, Muammar Gaddafi today threatened to treat his own people the way the Chinese treated theirs at Tiananmen. He also encouraged vigilante action against protesters, whom he accused of being drug-crazed advocates of breaking up Libya or turning it into an Islamic state, and threatened to execute as many people as need be.  He offered vague reforms of municipal governance but little else of substance, while denouncing the Libyan people’s lack of gratitude for all he had done for them.

This was one of the extraordinary moments of our time:  an autocrat of almost 42 years standing unable to comprehend that his people want him out.  He is trying to re-instil fear in Libya and could temporarily succeed.  Certainly nothing in his speech today suggested that it would be safe to continue demonstrating in Tripoli.  Rarely has a thug outlined more clearly his murderous intentions.

The Libyan people will decide their own reaction to Gaddafi’s ranting.  I find it difficult to suggest what they should do, given the risks they will have to run if they return to the streets.  I’ll be surprised though if they don’t try to return to Green square, or someplace else symbolic in Tripoli, by Friday.

What should the international community do?  The most immediate hopes lie in the Arab League and the UN Security Council.  The Arab League meeting today is unlikely to do much, since its members are all frightened that their country might be next.  But they need to consider the possibility that failure to act against Gaddafi may in fact increase their own risks.

The UN Security Council needs to take definite serious action at its meeting this afternoon.  I suggested yesterday the litany of things they could do.  In the harsh light of today, I would recommend the following, in priority order:

• Declare the need for “timely and decisive response” under the 2009 report of the Secretary General on the responsibility to protect;
• Send the Secretary General to Tripoli to negotiate an international observer mission aimed at protecting Libya’s population from war crimes and crimes against humanity.
• Freeze assets and ban travel of regime principals.
• Prohibit arms sales.
• Begin discussion of further measures:  no-fly zone, deposit of proceeds from Libyan oil sales into a UN-managed account, freeze on oil exports.

These are complicated issues that need to be carefully examined for their feasibility and usefulness.

In the meanwhile, the Sixth Fleet should be moving assets towards the Libyan coast, even if that will give Gaddafi something to cry “imperialism” about.  I doubt any of his planes or helicopters will fly if a carrier battle group is close by.

In his 2009 report, the Secretary General said:

…when confronted with crimes or violations relating
to the responsibility to protect or their incitement, today the world is less likely to
look the other way than in the last century.

Let’s pray he was correct.  Now is the time to prove it.

Who represents Libya?

I was curious: who represents Libya in the U.S.? The question arose in my mind in part because of Saif al Islam’s catastrophically miscalculated speech last night. Gaddafi’s heir apparent was trying to imitate the tone of Bahrain’s Crown Prince with the content of Mubarak and Ben Ali. It went over like the proverbial…

The answer is that Libya does not seem to be represented in the U.S. for public relations purposes.  The only agent of the Great Socialist People’s Arab Jamahiriya registered with the Justice Department (in 2008) is the law firm of White and Case LLP.  The contract is limited to legal services in connection with U.S. litigation matters pending against Libya.

I’ve often wondered why foreign governments have PR representation in the U.S., when most of what the PR firms do should be done by embassies.  But Libya obviously needs something more than its embassy if last night’s performance by the heir apparent is the best its authorities can do.  A few of Libya’s diplomats and reportedly the Justice Minister have resigned, Gaddafi has  gone underground and his democracy-touting, LSE-educated preferred son should be in hiding by today too.

The outcome in Libya is still uncertain, but it is not likely to be as peaceful or as consensual as what appears to be happening in Tunisia, Egypt and Bahrain.  While reports are sketchy, it appears demonstrators have seized military supplies, and the regime still maintains tight control of the capital.  Of course net result could also be more definitive than in other places, one way or the other.

The map of Tripoli is courtesy of BBC.  Thank you!

Qadhafi bets all or nothing

Libya, a country with no constitution and officially no chief of state, is turning into the next test for popular revolution in the Middle East/North Africa. De facto autocrat Muammar Qadhafi is using military force and foreign troops (believed to be mostly from Chad) to try to repress popular rebellion, which is strongest in the eastern city of Benghazi.

An oil rentier state that depends on petroleum for 80% of its government revenue, Qadhafi enters the fray with a sterling survival record:  he has ruled since a military coup in 1969, despite supporting terrorism and rebellion abroad in the 1970s and 1980s, the downing of Pan Am 103 by a Libyan agent in 1992, his decision to give up terrorism and the pursuit of nuclear weapons in 2003, and an extraordinary number of more bizarre incidents in between.  Here he is giving one of many over the top speeches:

Can this strange man get away with turning off the internet, using deadly force on protesters and hold on to control of his jamahiriya (state of the masses)? He is apparently drawing on both his army and foreign mercenaries for the purpose, but there are signs the regime is cracking: people are speaking out in their own names, some troops are said to have come over to the side of the protesters, there are rumors that Qadhafi has left the country and his son Saif al Islam is right now blaming it all on drug-crazed, drunk protesters who want to divide Libya, establish Islamic emirates and precipitate foreign intervention.  He offers reform, money, local control, a constitution.  He says the army is with Qadhafi. The regime or chaos is his overall message.  Sound familiar?

It could be the final cry of a dying regime, but a lot depends on the wisdom of the protesters:  they need to maintain nonviolent discipline, keep their numbers high, reach out to the security forces and try to get a bit more international news coverage.