peacefare.net

Transition begins today

The night was quieter than most of us expected, and the day so far as well.  Massive crowds in Tahrir square, big enough to scare off the thugs, who likely have been reined in a bit. They embarrassed the regime a good deal on Wednesday.  The army also did a bit more yesterday to keep pro- and anti-Mubarak demonstrators apart:

Regime focus yesterday was on detaining journalists and human rights activists, in an apparent effort to prevent the word from getting out about what Mubarak was up to.  Dumb move that one:  it guaranteed a lot of media attention in the U.S.–the press likes nothing better than covering themselves, and the human rights advocates will no doubt want to write about their treatment in custody.  Nothing done yesterday seems to have restricted the flow of information, and the regime did nothing as dramatically bad as what it did on Wednesday. Go figure.

Al Jazeera English in particular is doing a great job, focusing mainly on people actually involved in the demonstrations.  I turned on CNN for a comparison:  they were interviewing luminaries like Rudy Giuliani and Barbara Walters.  My how the mighty (CNN as well as Giuliani and Walters, who had nothing to say) have fallen!

President Mubarak is saying he is ready to go but fears chaos if he does.  I am starting to believe him, and the New York Times is reporting that negotiations are under way for Vice President Suleiman and the army to take over.  No one seems to have convinced Mubarak to sign on yet, but I’m not sure I’ll be surprised if he does. If he wants to die in Egypt, it may be the only way.

Even if he signs today on the dotted line, there is a long way to go yet.  The current parliament was elected in fraudulent, unfair and unfree elections in December.  The constitution not only gives the president extraordinary powers but also requires that a new one pass muster in parliament.

Someone has to figure out a way to give Egypt a new parliament, one elected freely and fairly (with substantially fewer than the 96% of seats said to be controlled by Mubarak’s party).  That new parliament would then fix the constitution and proceed with election of a new president, and maybe of still another parliament.

This is a tall order to get done by September, when presidential elections were scheduled.  But there is no limit to what can be done if there is good will.  So far, there isn’t.  Mubarak and Suleiman are still both blaming foreign agitators for Egypt’s troubles, and abuses by the security forces are still rampant, even if they are not actually beating Egyptians up quite as much as earlier in the week.

Today is supposed to be “departure” day. Whether Mubarak leaves the presidency today or not, February 4 is likely to be seen as marking the departure from an autocratic regime and the beginning of a difficult, and lengthy, transition to democracy.

Mubarak’s order

Tuesday was the peoples’ day, yesterday was the regime’s day. What will today and Friday be?

Let there be no doubt.  Wednesday afternoon’s rioting against the demonstrators was organized and paid for by the Mubarak regime, which at the very least could have stopped it.  I imagine Mubarak hesitated to use his uniformed police for the crackdown, presumably fearing Washington’s wrath, so he had it done in civilian clothes, but many of the rioters carried Interior Ministry identification.  They targeted especially the news media, in an apparent attempt to intimidate them from covering the malfeasance.  If these are the forces of law and order, why not try chaos?

The demonstrators have done well to hold Tahrir Square, but physical contests with their antagonists are not a good idea.  Sometime in the middle of the night the number of demonstrators declines, making another Interior Ministry attack all the more likely.  Last night it was sporadic gunfire aimed mainly at legs and feet.  Officially five killed.  Tonight it may get worse.  Mubarak will try to intimidate as many as possible from joining the demonstrations Friday.  There is no substitute for a massive presence in Tahrir.

Washington naturally turns to the question, “what should Barack Obama do?”  White House spokesman  Gibbs was seen today in the twittersphere as less than forceful in condemning the regime violence, but at the same time he was pretty good in insisting that change had to start right away.  My sense is that the White House needs to play hard ball with Mubarak in private, but not get  too far out in front in public.  This shouldn’t be about the United States.  The Egyptian Foreign Ministry, in a statement that will be the shame of every professional Egyptian diplomat I know, was only too happy yesterday to reject foreign calls to incitement.

I’m not keen on recalling ambassadors, especially the American one, because it hurts communication with both protesters and the army, not to mention with the regime.  Nor do I like blanket aid cuts, though if we can find juicy items the regime is particularly interested in I would be happy to see them cut.  I trust Admiral Mullen is making it clear to the Egyptian army that we won’t be able to be as helpful as in the past unless the rioting against the demonstrators stops.  This revolution still has to be made, or unmade, in Egypt, not inside the beltway.

It will however have effects within the beltway, and throughout America.  The implications are admirably outlined in a piece by Steve Clemons. The big worry is the impact on Egypt’s peace with Israel.  While I would not be surprised if Egypt adopted a more pro-Palestinian voice, it seems highly unlikely that a democratic government in Cairo would prefer to pick a serious fight with Israel rather than tend to its own citizens’ needs.  But that is precisely what Tehran did after its nondemocratic revolution, so who can predict?

The Egyptians seem remarkably willing to keep up their efforts.  If they can hold Tahrir square today, we’ll know Friday whether they can defeat autocratic thuggery with democratic commitment.