Which libretto is Maliki singing from?
Last we heard in the eight-month saga of forming a government, the Iraqi Parliament had chosen a Speaker and re-elected President Jalal Talabani, who in turn gave Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki 30 days in which to form a new government.
This deal left Iyad Allawi, the secular Shia leader of a largely Sunni coalition, with the dregs: chairmanship of a “national council for higher strategic policies,” “un-de-Ba’athification” of three of his leading Sunni lights and still unspecified ministries for Iraqiyya followers. Now it is unclear whether Allawi will get even that much, according to Marina Ottaway and Danial Kaysi of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. There is little in writing, and Maliki seems inclined to forget what was promised and continue his effort to centralize power. Meanwhile, Allawi has reportedly winged off to London, presumably to be lured back only if Maliki sings him an enchanting melody. That isn’t likely.
Bottom line: the Americans and Iranians have both ended up supporting Maliki, to the detriment of Sunnis and secularists. This is not likely to reduce Iraqi paranoia, which holds that everything that has happened since 2003 is a plot by Washington and Tehran, working together.
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The road to Kabul runs through Kashmir
Ahmed Rashid’s proposition runs counter to Indian and Pakistani insistence on handling Kashmir separately, but it nevertheless makes a lot of sense: only by getting India and Pakistan working together in Afghanistan will the problem be soluble, and they will only work together there if they are also working together to resolve Kashmir. Otherwise, what we’ve got are Pakistan/India proxy wars in Afghanistan, Baluchistan and Kashmir. We can expect little help from Islamabad so long as it remains obsessed with countering the threat from India.
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And Petraeus channels Petraeus
The General’s transition plan to phase out NATO combat operations by 2014 bears a distinct resemblance to the Iraq phase-out now being completed.
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Karzai channels Maliki
Afghanistan President Karzai, in an interview published this morning in the Washington Post, asks for a reduced U.S. military presence and an end to night-time raids on Afghan homes. He sounds a lot like Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki three years ago, but he has shown none of Maliki’s grit (remember the Iraqi attacks on Moqtada al Sadr’s people in Basra and Sadr City?). Karzai also blames corruption in Afghanistan on American contracting practices. Maybe we should cancel all those Afghanistan reports (as well as the December policy review) and leave Karzai to his own devices.
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Suu Kyi free–will it bring change?
Confident of its hold on power due to dubious elections November 7, the Burmese regime has freed dissident leader Aung San Suu Kyi from many years of house arrest. Will she shake things up? Or has the election provided enough legitimacy to stabilize a notoriously repressive and feckless regime? Kyaw Zwa Moe, managing editor of Irrawaddy, was not expecting change from the elections alone. But Aung Zaw, Irrawaddy founder, thinks her release will make a BIG difference.
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A negotiated solution for Abyei?
Voter registration for the South Sudan referendum on independence January 9 starts Monday and extends until December 1. Preparations are reported to be adequate.
The problem is Abyei: there is no agreement yet on who can register there for the separate referendum on whether it goes north or south. That could spell trouble. The U.S. is telling the Security Council it wants a negotiated solution in Abyei, rather than a referendum. This is the classic “who does it belong to” problem. Remember Eastern Slavonia, Brcko, and Kirkuk?
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