Europe has to go on a diet
President Obama scored points this week by supporting India’s bid for a permanent (non-veto) seat on the 15-member UN Security Council. He is likely to do the same for Brazil when he next meets its President, newly elected Dilma Rousseff. Neither Brazil nor India, however, can expect to occupy their cushions any time soon. Among the many obstacles, two bear mention:
1. Regional opposition is strong. Pakistan (and other Asian countries) are unlikely to applaud loudly as archrival India gets a permanent seat among the world’s mighty. Nor are Argentina and Mexico likely to applaud for lusophone Brazil to represent Latin America permanently on the Council.
2. Europe is over-represented and needs to give up seats so that the Council can be kept at a reasonable size. As many as five, more often four, seats on the Council are occupied by European Union members, including two permanent seats for France and the UK. To make room for Brazil and India, plus increased regional representation from Africa, the Middle East and Asia, will require Europe to go on a diet, as it has (barely) begun to do at the IMF: IMF Survey: G-20 Ministers Agree ‘Historic’ Reforms in IMF Governance.
This won’t be easy: Germany has long campaigned for a permanent seat of its own. But with EU countries coordinating their foreign and security policies, is there really any need for so many different European voices to be saying much the same thing? Or would European weight in peace and security issues be greater if the Union had fewer seats (and a louder voice)?
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Kerry still running
Even for the chair of Senate Foreign Relations, this is an unusually frenetic trip to important places.
The envoy: Kerry in Turkey, Israel, West Bank – Laura Rozen – POLITICO.com.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Walt v. Bush
A healthy reminder of where we’ve been, but then it is hard to credit Walt’s remark that Obama’s “foreign policy…looks surprising[ly] like George W. Bush’s.”
Delusion Points – By Stephen M. Walt | Foreign Policy.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Hizbollah to fight zombie?
Marc Lynch thinks the Special (“Zombie”) Tribunal for Lebanon lacks credibility, so why give it $10 million? But the more important question is this: how will Hizbollah react if the indictments finger it? Can Lebanon, an already weak state, survive the blowback?
The Zombie Tribunal for Lebanon | Marc Lynch.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Tell me the Senator isn’t running for SecState
Laura Rozen reviews Senator Kerry’s visits to Khartoum, Beirut and Damascus. Clearly well-coordinated with State, but also clearly calculated to keep the Senator in the running. No harm in that–Hillary Clinton can’t stay on forever.
Laura Rozen: on foreign policy – POLITICO.com.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Getting up to date on Iran
The place to start these days on Iran is Robin Wright’s The Iran Primer. The many short pieces therein are an economical way of getting up to date, especially the pieces listed under “policy options.”
The bottom line is no surprise: there aren’t any really good options. Ken Pollack describes “containment” as the default U.S. policy mode, and Dov Zakheim thinks covert action might be better than an overt military attack against the nuclear program. Abbas Milani worries that war would kill the opposition Green Movement, which however is equivocal about the nuclear program.
No options look particularly good. No wonder Obama is sticking with diplomacy, at least for the moment. It’s cheap, and no one is objecting too strongly. Recent American overtures include welcoming Iran to a meeting on Afghanistan last month and declaring the Iranian Baloch group Jundullah a terrorist organization, see Laura Rozen’s U.S. designates Jundullah as terrorist group – Laura Rozen – POLITICO.com.
RSS - Posts
