Tag: 2020 Election
Stevenson’s army, September 22
– Josh Rogin says secret CIA assessment says Russian leaders are probably directing an influence campaign against Biden.
– WaPo says DOD shifted Covid money to buy jet engine parts and body armor.
– BuzzFeed says government documents show failure to block suspicious financial transactions linked to drugs and terrorists.
– WSJ says Chinese leaders divided over blacklisting US companies.
–Russia rejects US New START ideas.
– Flouting nonpolitical norms, Pompeo plunges into politics, Politico says.
– CNN says Milley and Esper have different approaches to evading Trump.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, September 18
The respected annual poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs finds sharp partisan divisions among Americans, even though they support engagement abroad. WaPo has a good report.
For Democrats, the five leading threats to US vital interests are, in order, the coronavirus pandemic, climate change, racial inequality in the United States, foreign interference in U.S. elections and economic inequality in this country.
For Republicans, the top five threats to vital US interests are the development of China as a world power, international terrorism, large numbers of immigrants and refugees coming into the country, domestic violent extremism and Iran’s nuclear program. Here’s the survey.
NYT says China is losing friends in Europe.
Senate Democrats have a $350 billion package to counter China.
Politico says China issue won’t determine US elections. Former DHS aide to VP Pence on coronavirus quits, blasts Trump
StratCom head sees no need for nuclear test. [Note: this is an issue in net week’s exercise]
NATO report says Taliban is flush with cash.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, September 16
Pew survey finds falling world views of US
Jeffrey Goldberg lists winners and losers in new Israel-UAE-Bahrain agreements.
Here’s another F-35 to UAE report.
WSJ says US is using Magnitsky Act to impose sanctions on Chinese companies helping to build overseas bases.
Politico sees a toxic feud between DNI & intelligence committees.
As you know, I worked for Joe Biden many years ago [1981-5]. FP’s James Traub has a very good analysis of how Biden thinks about foreign policy.
Just before the Jewish High Holy Days, there’s a discouraging report on the levels of ignorance about the Holocaust among younger Americans.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, September 15
-An American think tank has a new revealing poll of attitudes toward foreign policy. More reassuring than dramatic.
– New data on how much dark money there is in US politics. More details at opensecrets.org.
-Military Times has helpful list of upcoming hearings.
– WaPo reports Israeli concerns about F-35 sale to UAE. [Note: this issue will come up in next week’s exercise.]– Putin & Lukashenko discuss “integration.“
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Peace Picks | September 14 – September 18, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Tenth Annual South China Sea Conference, Session Three | September 14, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
The CSIS Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative are pleased to present the Tenth Annual South China Sea Conference: Session Three on Monday, September 14, 2020. This monthly webinar series will provide opportunities for in-depth discussion and analysis of developments in the South China Sea over the past year and potential paths forward. This session will feature a panel discussion on dispute management in the South China Sea, including coordination mechanisms for law enforcement, fisheries, and other natural resources.
Speakers:
Amanda Hsiao: Project Manager, Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue
Ivy Kwek: Research Director, Research for Social Advancement (REFSA), Kuala Lumpur
Greta Nabbs-Keller: Research Fellow, Centre for Policy Futures, University of Queensland
2. Global Democracy and the Coronavirus Fallout | September 14, 2020 | 2:30 – 4:00 PM CEST | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Europe | Register Here
As the coronavirus pandemic tests governments and societies around the world, it is also stressing the already fragile state of global democracy by undermining critical democratic processes, sidelining human rights, and unfettering authoritarianism.
How can Europe’s response to the crisis address the immediate issues and bolster democracy, protect human rights, and foster longer-term peace and stability around the world?
On the eve of International Democracy Day, join Per Olsson Fridh, Anu Juvonen, and Stefano Sannino for a discussion to explore the state of global democracy, European foreign policy, and democracy support amid the pandemic. Rosa Balfour will moderate.
Speakers:
Per Olsson Fridh: State Secretary to the Minister for International Development Cooperation, Sweden.
Anu Juvonen: Executive Director of Demo Finland, Political Parties of Finland for Democracy.
Stefano Sannino: Deputy Secretary General for economic and global issues of the European External Action Service.
Rosa Balfour: Director of Carnegie Europe.
3. Venezuela on the Brink of Famine: The Impact of Covid-19 | September 15, 2020 | 10:00 – 10:45 AM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
Hospitals in Venezuela are reporting deadly surges in Covid-19, a pandemic the country is utterly unprepared to treat. The Maduro regime has limited testing to a few government-controlled labs, casting doubt on official government tallies. And, while aid and technical assistance have trickled in—facilitated by a humanitarian agreement signed by the opposition and the regime in early June—much more is needed. Gasoline remains scarce despite highly publicized gasoline shipments from Iran, paralyzing food distribution systems. 35% of adults are eating only once per day. Facing economic uncertainty, tens of thousands of vulnerable migrants have chosen to return, and the regime has accused them of being ‘biological weapons’. Now the poorest country in Latin America, Venezuela is on the verge of famine with a third of its population in urgent need of humanitarian assistance.
This virtual event will shed light on the gravity of the situation on the ground and how the Covid-19 pandemic has further deepened the humanitarian crisis. We will hear from representatives of civil society organizations that are monitoring and responding to the humanitarian crisis, including Cáritas Venezuela and Acción Solidaria.
Speakers:
Susana Raffalli: Senior Humanitarian Adviser, Cáritas Venezuela
Feliciano Reyna: President, Acción Solidaria.
4. Inaugural Women Building Peace Award Celebration | September 15, 2020 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
Every day, women around the world are leading movements to create enduring, peaceful societies. Yet all too often, women’s roles in ending and preventing conflict go unnoticed. The U.S. Institute of Peace is committed to changing that. With the inaugural Women Building Peace Award, USIP will honor the inspiring work of women peacebuilders whose courage, leadership, and commitment to peace stand out as beacons of strength and hope.
From Africa and the Middle East to Southeast Asia and South America, USIP’s 10 Women Building Peace Award finalists have overcome conflict and violence to forge hope for a brighter future. Individually, they have transformed themselves, their communities, and their countries through their relentless and creative approaches to building peace. Together, their stories reveal the resilience of the human spirit in the face of overwhelming odds and the power of women to mold lasting peace from seemingly endless conflict.
Join USIP for the inaugural Women Building Peace Award ceremony and hear from these inspiring women, whose collective work stretches across continents and spans generations, as they share how they made their communities and the world a better, more peaceful place.
The ceremony will also feature peace strategist and consultant to the United Nations Sanam Naraghi Anderlini, Nobel Peace Prize winner Leymah Gbowee, Academy Award winning actor Geena Davis, former USIP President and CEO Nancy Lindborg, and other prominent women in media and peacebuilding who are working across the United States and globally to create an environment that enables girls, women, and all people to realize their potential as peacebuilders, leaders, and agents of change.
The event will conclude with the announcement of the sole 2020 Women Building Peace Award recipient. The awardee, whose substantial and practical contributions to peace serve as an inspiration and guiding light for future women peacebuilders, will receive a $10,000 prize.
Speakers:
Sanam Naraghi Anderlini, MBE: Founder & CEO, International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN); Director, Centre for Women, Peace and Security, London School of Economics and Political Science
Megan C. Beyer: Co-chair, Women Building Peace Council
Marcia Myers Carlucci: Co-chair, Women Building Peace Council
Ambassador Johnnie Carson: Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace
Ambassador Kelley E. Currie: Ambassador at Large for Global Women’s Issues, U.S. Department of State
Geena Davis: Founder, Geena Davis Institute on Gender in Media
Leymah Gbowee: 2011 Nobel Peace Laureate; Founder/President, Gbowee Peace Foundation Africa (GPFA)
Michelle J. Howard: Admiral, U.S. Navy (Ret.)
Nancy Lindborg; Former President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace; Honorary Women Building Peace Council Chair
5. Defense Policy and the 2020 Election | September 15, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:00 PM EDT | Brookings Institution | Register Here
The 2020 election takes place at an extraordinarily polarized moment in American history. Having claimed over 180,000 lives and destroyed millions of jobs, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to dominate headlines and will be at the forefront of voters’ minds when they cast their ballots in November. Yet, America also faces a wide array of national security threats beyond the pandemic, threats that require attention, planning, and investment from national leadership. While the National Defense Strategy places a rising China and a revanchist Russia at the heart of defense planning, other threats such as extremist actors, climate change, and transnational criminal organizations challenge the U.S. as well. Moreover, as the nation embraces historically high deficits to tackle the pandemic, Congress and the administration will need to make difficult trade-offs to pay for it all, promising a contentious debate in the coming year about the future of the defense budget.
On September 15, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings, as part of the Policy 2020 event series, will discuss these and other issues as the nation prepares for the upcoming 2020 presidential election.
The Policy 2020 event series aims to empower voters with fact-based, data-driven, non-partisan information so they can better understand the policy matters discussed by candidates running for office in 2020.
Speakers:
Michael E. O’Hanlon: Director of Research – Foreign PolicyCo-Director, Security and StrategySenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and IntelligenceThe Sydney Stein, Jr. Chair
Frank A. Rose: Co-Director, Security and StrategySenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence
Maya MacGuineas: President – Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
Jessica Mathews: Distinguished Fellow – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
6. Is a Plan B Needed to Save Afghanistan? | September 16, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The future of Afghanistan’s constitutionally liberal democratic system is very much at issue. On its survival rests the aspiration of the greatest number of its people, the deep investment of the international community in the country’s stability and wellbeing, and ultimately the security of the region and beyond. Negotiations are beginning in what is certain to be a lengthy process that may in the name of a compromise trade away social and economic gains realized over nearly two decades. Afghanistan has additionally to cope with the disengagement of foreign forces just at a time when their leverage militarily and diplomatically could be critical. In the absence of a verifiable ceasefire, the country confronts a prospect of exploding violence and possible descent into chaos.
Can Afghanistan pull itself together to not only protect its achievements but to overcome past errors? Should Afghans and their international partners think about formulating a Plan B to save the republic while striving for true reconciliation with the insurgency? The Middle East Institute is pleased to host a panel of experts to discuss these questions and more.
Speakers:
Anthony Cordesman: Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Ali Jalali: Distinguished professor, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University
Saad Mohseni: Chairman and CEO, MOBY Group
David Sedney: President, American University of Afghanistan
Muqaddesa Yourish: Former Afghan deputy minister of commerce; member, MOBY Group Media; political activist
Marvin Weinbaum, moderator: Director, Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, Middle East Institute
7. American Leadership in Advancing the Sustainable Development Goals | September 16, 2020 | 1:00 – 2:30 PM EDT | Brookings Institution | Register Here
The devastating health and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have exposed and exacerbated stark inequalities and vulnerabilities in the United States. At the same time, protests sparked by the tragic killing of George Floyd have put the spotlight on America’s long history of racial injustice. The commitment to equity, justice, and environmental preservation reflected in the sustainable development goals (SDGs) is more critical today than ever, a foundation to respond to these crises and to build a future that leaves no one behind. Building off a successful first gathering last year on the margins of the UN General Assembly, this event will showcase local innovation, leadership, actions, and commitments from all parts of the American society, including cities, businesses, universities, philanthropy, and youth activists. Their leadership is crucial to a recovery that advances equity and sustainability here at home, and provides a fundamental basis for U.S. credibility and leadership abroad on the defining issues of our day.
On Wednesday, September 16, from 1:00 – 2:30 p.m. EDT, the Brookings Institution and the UN Foundation will co-host a high-level virtual event to showcase the power of the SDGs in the United States.
Speakers and Itinerary:
WELCOME
John R. Allen: President, The Brookings Institution
SPOTLIGHT 1
Fatimata Cham: Youth Poet and Activist
CONTEXT
Anthony F. Pipa: Senior Fellow – Global Economy and Development
KEYNOTE
Hon. Eric Garcetti: Mayor – Los Angeles
PANAL: ENGINES OF ACTION FOR THE SDGS
Penny Abeywardena: Commissioner for International Affairs – Mayor’s Office, City of New York
Majestic Lane: Chief Equity Officer – City of Pittsburgh
Rose Stuckey Kirk: Chief Corporate Social Responsibility Officer – VerizonPresident – Verizon Foundation
Dr. Yvette E. Pearson: Associate Dean for Accreditation, Assessment, and Strategic Initiatives; George R. Brown School of Engineering – Rice University
Kathleen McLaughlin: President – Walmart FoundationExecutive Vice President and Chief Sustainability Officer – Walmart, Inc.
SPOTLIGHT 2: LAUNCH OF CMU’S VOLUNTARY UNIVERSITY REVIEW
James H. Garrett Jr.: Provost and Chief Academic Officer – Carnegie Mellon University
LAUNCH OF HAWAII’S STATEWIDE REVIEW OF THE SDG’S & LOOKING FORWARD
Amb. Elizabeth Cousens: President and CEO – UN Foundation
Sen. Brian Schatz: Senator – Hawaii
Gov. David Y. Ige: Governor – Hawaii
SPOTLIGHT 3
Dustin Liu: UNA-USA Youth Observer to the UN
WRAP UP
Kaysie Brown: Vice President for Policy and Strategic Initiatives – UN Foundation
8. Toward Never Again: U.S. Leadership in Atrocity Prevention | September 16, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
The Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act of 2018 calls upon the United States to pursue a government-wide strategy to identify, prevent, and respond to atrocity risk. Critically, the Act underscores the importance of a White House-led interagency working group charged with monitoring atrocity risk and responding to high-risk or imminent atrocity situations. The Atrocity Early Warning Task Force has refined the U.S. approach to atrocity prevention through enhanced early warning and improved interagency coordination to mitigate atrocity risks.
Join USIP and the State Department’s Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations for a discussion on institutionalizing “never again,” as well as interagency efforts to prevent, mitigate, and respond to atrocity risks.
Speakers:
Philippe Leroux-Martin: Director of Governance, Justice & Security, U.S. Institute of Peace
Denise Natali: Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, U.S. Department of State
Naomi Kikoler: Director, Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum
Robert Destro: Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, U.S. Department of State
Stephanie Hammond: Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary, Peacekeeping and Stabilization Operations, U.S. Department of Defense
Kirsten Madison: Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, U.S. Department of State
Peter Marocco: Assistant to the Administrator, Bureau of Conflict Prevention and Stabilization, U.S. Agency for International Development
Morse Tan: Ambassador-at-Large, Global Criminal Justice, U.S. Department of State
9. India’s Foreign Policy Outlook: An Inflection Point? | September 17, 2020 | 10:30 – 11:30 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
How is India responding to rapid changes in the international environment? New Delhi has been managing an unprecedented border crisis with China, warily watching a peace process with the Taliban in Afghanistan, and navigating complex relationships with its neighbors—all amid the global COVID-19 pandemic. How does India define its foreign policy outlook and priorities in a changing global and regional order? Where do continued strong bilateral ties with the United States fit in?
Join USIP as we host one of India’s foremost diplomats and scholars, former Foreign Secretary and former Ambassador to both China and the United States Nirupama Rao, for a candid conversation that explores how Indian leaders are managing challenges in the Indo-Pacific and what we may expect from Indian foreign policy going forward. Ambassador Rao will reflect on her experience and the increasingly relevant lessons from her forthcoming book on India-China relations after World War II.
Speakers:
Andrew Wilder: Vice President, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
Ambassador Nirupama Rao: Former Foreign Secretary of India; Former Indian Ambassador to China and the United States
Vikram Singh: Senior Advisor, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
10. Belarus and Democracy in Europe | September 18, 2020 | 9:30 AM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Authoritarianism is on the rise across the world, and it is posing a serious challenge to democracy and the post-World War II international system. In Central and Eastern Europe, Freedom House states that there are fewer democracies today than at “any point” since 1995. The remarkable events in Belarus over the past month, however, stand as a strong counterpoint to that trend. The democratic impulse remains powerful, and the refusal of Belarusians to accept another fraudulent presidential election has initiated a standoff whose outcome is uncertain. President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who ruled Belarus for 26 years without a serious challenge to his power, now faces one of the strongest pro-democracy movements in Europe in recent years.
Speakers:
Linas Linkevičius: Lithuanian Foreign Minister
Melinda Haring: deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
Vladimir Kara-Murza: chairman of the Boris Nemtsov Foundation for Freedom and vice president of the Free Russia Foundation
Hanna Liubakova: journalist at Outriders and fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
Damon Wilson: executive vice president at the Atlantic Council
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Landslide is the only solution
Bob Woodward’s confirmation that President Trump lied about the seriousness of Covid19 is no surprise. Anyone with a functioning brain knows that by now. But getting the admission on tape, along with the fact that the source of some of the information on contagiousness of the virus was Chinese President Xi, was a journalistic coup. It would have been even more so had Woodward published it earlier, but he claims he wanted to save it for his book because that afforded him the longer form to provide fuller context. It also of course helps him market his product.
In a rational world, Woodward’s revelation would end Trump’s ability to market himself. His “playing down” the virus cost more something like 150,000 lives, so far. Shutdowns, masks and social distancing earlier and more consistently would have saved about that many. People are still dying as a result of Trump’s neglect of the most important Presidential responsibility: to protect Americans. This appalling dereliction of duty has had real world consequences.
It is hard for me to imagine how anyone could vote for a President who did such a thing. His achievements are easy to list: appointing supposedly conservative but too often unqualified judges, a massive tax cut for the rich, and validation of white nationalism as a political force in the United States. His failures, in addition to his mendacious response to Covid19, take longer:
- Inability to cope with social justice protests in a productive way and encouragement of violence and threats of violence against peaceful protesters.
- A collapsed economy that even before the epidemic was growing no faster than in President Obama’s last three years.
- A ballooning budget deficit, again even before the epidemic hit.
- Unfounded attacks on the right to vote.
- Repeated efforts to deprive millions of Americans of the health insurance they obtained from Obamacare, without providing an alternative.
- Failure in the trade war with China, which has cost the US government many billions in agricultural and other subsidies to offset the export losses due to tariffs.
- Accelerated Iranian progress towards nuclear weapons, entirely due to Trump’s withdrawal of the US from the nuclear deal.
- North Korean refusal to give up their nuclear weapons, despite offers of massive economic assistance.
- Consolidation of President Maduro’s power in Venezuela.
Trump wants you to think that withdrawal of a few thousand troops from Iraq and Afghanistan as well as the Israel/UAE deal were big achievements. Far from it: the US still has more troops in the greater Middle East than before he took office. The UAE/Israel deal only contributes to peace between two countries who have never been at war and have precious little reason to fight. It makes an Israel/Palestine deal more difficult, not less.
Even before the latest headlines, Jeffrey Goldberg had assembled the evidence of Trump’s disdain for the American military. That, too, was well-known to anyone paying attention to Trump’s mythical bonespurs and his public denunciation of John McCain, but the things Trump has said in private about the troops being “losers” and “suckers” compounded what some might have hoped to dismiss as misdemeanors into felonies. Polling of America’s troops suggests that they will be voting against a Republican for the first time in a long while.
The right thing for Trump to do now is resign and allow Pence to take over, hoping that would improve Republican prospects in the November 3 election. He could then re-assume the office and would be hard to fault for doing so, as the voice of the people would have been heard. He won’t do that, because he can’t afford to lose this election or even leave office for a few months. Both his finances and his freedom are at risk, because the Russians won’t continue anteing up and state Attorneys General will be indicting him on felony charges. So instead he will stay on the ballot and try to de-legitimize the election results, especially if they show him winning on election night but losing due to mail-in ballots a couple of days later.
The only way of preventing that is a landslide in favor of Biden, starting on election night. Even then, Trump may try to prevent Biden from getting a majority in the Electoral College by convincing Republican governors to withhold communication of their electoral votes. But a clear and unequivocal electoral vote victory, in addition to Biden’s all but certain popular vote margin, would do a great deal to save America from a chaotic outcome.
RSS - Posts
