Tag: 2020 Election
Stevenson’s army, August 18
– Bipartisan report from Senate Intelligence Committee details [966 pages!] Russian interference in 2016 elections. Here’s the document.
– Daily Beast says Trump secretly promised to sell F35s to UAE as part of agreement with Israel. Congress voted to block such sales in May, but Trump vetoed.
-WOTR details lots of foreign fighters in Sub-Saharan Africa.
– DHS official after 2 years under Trump details politicization of DHS.
-Is this an election year? Trump rejects proposed cuts in DOD health care.
– Future of JCPOA: Politico has explainer. FP says Europeans can keep agreement alive unti November.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | August 17 – August 21, 2020
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- A Conversation With Former US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton | August 17, 2020 | 12:00 – 12:45 PM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council on Monday, August 17, 2020, from 12 p.m. to 12:45 p.m. EDT for a conversation featuring former US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Secretary Clinton’s experience from the Department of State, Senate, and the campaign trail makes her ideally suited to ponder the top foreign policy priorities in the next four years for the next presidential administration. The discussion will focus on America’s role in the world in the new decade and the future of US leadership, at an inflection point in history.
This special edition of the #ACFrontPage event series, launches the Atlantic Council’s Elections 2020: America’s Role in the World, a series of conversations on the top foreign policy priorities for the next four years, featuring the most prominent voices shaping the national dialogue. From the Conventions to the Elections, the series will explore key questions concerning America’s role and interests in the world, bringing a foreign policy perspective to the conversation and addressing the most critical issues at the intersection between the domestic and international spheres.
Speakers:
The Honorable Hillary Rodham Clinton: Former Secretary of State, United States of America
Fredrick Kempe: President & CEO, Atlantic Council - Afghanistan’s Future: Regional Perspectives on the Road Ahead | August 18, 2020 | 8:30 – 10:00 AM EST | Stimson Center | Register Here
Future outcomes in Afghanistan will be shaped for years to come by two key milestones: the withdrawal of U.S. troops and negotiations between the Afghan government and Taliban representatives. In this virtual panel discussion, contributors to a recent series on the future of Afghanistan in South Asian Voices, Stimson’s online magazine, will come together to share perspectives from across the region and explore how Afghanistan, the United States, Pakistan, India, and Iran might respond to a range of future scenarios.
Speakers:
Bismellah Alizada: Co-Founder, Rahila Foundation; Deputy Director, Organization for Policy Research & Development Studies (DROPS)
Fizza Batool: Doctoral Candidate, International Relations, University of Karachi
Neha Dwivedi: Research Analyst, Janes
Jumakhan Rahyab: Fulbright Graduate Fellow, University of Massachusetts
Saurav Sarkar: Research Associate, Center for Air Power Studies (New Delhi); South Asian Voices Visiting Fellow, Stimson Center
Elizabeth Threlkeld: Senior Fellow & Deputy Director of the South Asia Program, Stimson Center - Has Belarus Reached a Point of No Return? | August 18, 2020 | 11:00 – 11:45 AM EST | Center for Strategic & International Studies | Register Here
Following a stolen election which allowed 26-year strongman ruler Alexander Lukashenko to claim a landslide victory, tens of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets across more than 30 towns and cities to demand his resignation and new elections. Met with shocking brutality, armed police and interior ministry troops have been deployed by the thousands, indiscriminately attacking protestors and journalists with live and rubber bullets as well as flash grenades. Despite the violence, massive protests have continued into the week even as authorities disabled internet connections in the evenings and, as of August 12, detained more than 6,000 protestors.
The situation remains dynamic. Opposition challenger Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has fled to neighboring Lithuania under duress after conceding defeat in what appeared to be a forced televised address. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin, one of the first leaders to congratulate Lukashenko for his victory, hinted in his message that Moscow’s support for the embattled president may be contingent on Belarus’ further integration with Russia. The United States and European Union have condemned the crackdown, and EU foreign ministers are set to meet on August 14 to discuss targeted sanctions.
Has Belarus passed the point of no return where Lukashenko’s leadership is no longer tenable? Can the opposition movement inside the country continue without a leader? How might Russia respond in the event of an escalation in protests and Lukashenko’s departure? What are the implications for European security? How should the United States and European Union respond to these developments?
Speakers:
Valery Tsepkalo: Former Ambassador to the United States, Belarus; Candidate for President (2020), Belarus
Vladislav Inozemtsev: Non-Resident Senior Associate, CSIS
Heather A. Conley: Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, & the Arctic, CSIS - The Status of the Fight Against ISIS | August 18, 2020 | 12:00 PM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
ISIS has lost its territory in Syria and is no longer able to conduct large-scale internal or external attacks. Nonetheless, the organization has been able to regroup, continues to generate funds through its illicit activities, and has resumed low-level operations.
The United States and its partners must solidify gains against ISIS, particularly as the possibility looms of a further drawdown of US troops in Syria. Active combat against the group is winding down. It is now necessary to prevent a future ISIS resurgence by finding ways to keep up the pressure while also tackling the root causes of the wider unrest. What challenges remain for US and European policymakers in order to eliminate an ISIS revival? What support is still needed for local partners and communities to ensure they are not at risk from ISIS again?
Speakers:
Jomana Qaddour (Moderator): Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council
Jasmine El-Gamal: Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, Atlantic Council
Christopher Maier: Director, Defeat ISIS Task Force, Office of the Secretary of Defense, US Department of Defense
Robert Rhode: Ambassador for Negotiations on Syria & Head of Division for Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, & Anti-ISIS Strategy, German Federal Foreign Office - How the United States Can Use Force Short of War | August 19, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EST | Brookings Institution | Register Here
In their new book “Military Coercion and US Foreign Policy,” co-authors and Stimson Center experts Barry Blechman, James Siebens, and Melanie Sisson argue that during the Cold War, U.S. efforts to coerce other states using non-violent methods short of war failed as often as they succeeded. But unlike the Soviet Union, whose economy was stagnant and technology behind the West, in the coming years, the United States must contend with far more capable competitor powers. The book generates insight into how the U.S. military can be used to achieve policy goals. Specifically, it provides guidance about the ways in which, and the conditions under which, U.S. armed forces can work in concert with economic and diplomatic elements of U.S. power to create effective coercive strategies.
Speakers:
Michael E. O’Hanlon (Moderator): Director of Research, Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution
Barry Blechman: Distinguished Fellow, Stimson Center
Melanie Sisson: Non-Resident Fellow, Stimson Center - The Kashmir Conflict: A Year of Tumult | August 20, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM EST | Stimson Center | Register Here
Join USIP and the Stimson Center for a conversation, featuring Stimson South Asia Program Director Sameer Lalwani, focused on the tensions between India and Pakistan and prospects for resolving the bilateral dispute, as well as the domestic Kashmiri resistance and both the violent and non-violent movements within Kashmir that may challenge Indian attempts to reshape Kashmir’s status.
Speakers:
Happymon Jacob: Associate Professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University
Sameer Lalwani: Director, South Asia Program, Stimson Center
Tamanna Salikuddin: Director, South Asia Program, U.S. Institute of Peace - Protest Movements & Refugee Inclusion in Civil Society | August 21, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Protests in Iraq and Lebanon have drawn global attention as protestors advocate for political and economic reform and an end to corruption, especially in the wake of the Beirut blast and Lebanon’s disaster response. These countries also face economic crisis and socio-political challenges relating to the millions of refugees and IDPs within their borders and the lack of sustainable policies to address displaced people’s needs. In Lebanon and Iraq, refugees and IDPs face discrimination and lack of access to educational and public health resources in addition to the widespread economic pain and disenfranchisement that these countries protest movements aim to confront.
How have refugees in these countries been active in or left out of these movements? How can access gaps and discrimination be overcome to integrate refugee rights into these protest movements? How do protest movements reflect a desire to integrate refugees and IDPs into the social fabric of these countries?
Speakers:
Joyce Karam (Moderator): Washington Correspondent, The National
Sawsan Abdulrahmin: Associate Professor of Public Health, American University of Beirut
Noof Assi: Women’s Protection & Empowerment Coordinator, Emergency Response Team, International Rescue Committee; Co-Founder, IQ Peace
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Stevenson’s army, August 17
– Speaker Pelosi is calling the House back from recess to vote to “save the Postal Service.” This is mostly for show, of course, because the House has already passed, in May, the HEROES Act, with $25 Billion more for USPS. The Senate has never taken up the House bill.
– SecDef Esper ordered DOD planners to cut $2.2 billion in defense health care costs.
– Joint Doctrine planners envision a future battlefield with no lines on the map.
– Planned trade review talks with China were cancelled.
– Putin is ready to help Belarus.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 15
– Slate lists ten scary scenarios that might disrupt the elections.
– Now that GAO has ruled that top officials at DHS were illegally appointed, Lawfare explains the situation.
– NYT says China is tamping down nationalist fervor.
– Pompeo signs deal moving US troops to Poland.
– US lost Iran vote in UNSC.
– CNAS has collection of reports on export controls
– CFR has materials on Kamala Harris foreign policy views.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Votes count
Belarusan President Lukashenko is facing the consequences of his effort to fake re-election with a claimed 80% of the vote. The country’s citizens know this result is fraudulent and are unwilling to accept it. His competitor, who more than likely won, has fled to Lithuania with her two children. Her husband remains in prison in Belarus, hostage to Lukashenko. Belarusans have no alternative but to take to the streets, where the security forces are beating and detaining them for further brutal mistreatment while in custody.
President Putin has backed Lukashenko, even though the Belarusan president has at times been less than a loyal ally to Moscow. A weakened and dependent Lukashenko is precisely what Moscow needs to impose its will. The EU and US have issued muffled protests of the treatment of protesters. Brussels has also called the elections “unfree and unfair,” but neither has unequivocally denounced the election outcome. The EU is hampered by its need for consensus among 27 member states, some of whose leaders have sympathy with Lukashenko. The US presumably doesn’t want to offend Russian President Putin.
President Trump is preparing for his own election fraud. He won’t be able to pull off the kind of ballot-box stuffing and fake tabulations that Lukashenko indulged in. American national elections are run by the states and local authorities. It wouldn’t do much good for Trump’s allies to fake election results in many “red” states because all that really matters is who wins: that state’s electoral votes (with few exceptions) go entirely to the winning candidate, who won’t be in doubt in truly red states. He wouldn’t be able to pull off fake results in “blue” states. And many “battleground” states are run by Democrats.
So what Trump is trying to do is to suppress voting, knowing that his supporters are on the whole more enthusiastic than his rival’s voters, many of whom are more anti-Trump than they are pro-Biden. Trump has said he opposes special funding for the US Postal Service (USPS) in order to make it harder for mail-in votes to arrive on time. His recently appointed head of USPS is trying to slow mail delivery, including by removing sorting machines from many post offices.
I doubt this effort to suppress voting will succeed. Americans like their post office and postal workers are part of the communities they deliver ballots to and from. I expect the workers, whether they favor Democrats or Republicans, to make every effort to deliver the ballots on time.
But that will not entirely defeat Donald Trump’s purposes. He knows full well that many, perhaps most, Americans will prefer to vote by mail during a pandemic. He knows the postal workers will do their best to deliver the ballots. What he is trying to do is not only slow the mail but lay the basis for rejecting the election results. Mail-in ballots, he claims, are subject to fraud. They require far more time and effort to count, so there will be a delay in announcing results. He will use that delay as well as his campaign to cast doubt on their validity, claiming that results are being falsified.
I don’t expect this gambit to work better for Trump than Lukashenko’s worked in Belarus. But it could lead to big street protests in the days during which the election outcome is uncertain. Trump has made clear in Portland in recent months what he intends to do about those: he will unleash poorly trained Federal agents to provoke violence, which will give him the excuse to deploy more. We’ll see counter-protests as well, with further violence the inevitable consequence.
So it is vital that Americans who want to see the end of Trump do everything they can to vote early if by mail and in person if not, even despite the virus in battleground states.
Trump of course has other tricks to foil Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. He is suggesting she is not eligible to be Vice President or President because her parents were not citizens, even though she was born in Oakland, California. This is discredited and racist drivel, but so too is Trump’s claim that mail-in ballots are subject to fraud. In the end, what counts are votes.
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Stevenson’s army, August 13
– Axios has a great piece listing voting rules and deadlines for all states.
– Defense News reports how key members of Congress have blocked arms sales to Turkey through their informal powers.
– Both Kori Schake and Fred Kaplan criticize the Nagl-Yingling letter urging CJCS Milley to prevent Trump from challenging an electoral defeat. I agree with the criticism.
– To try to get UNSC approval of Iran sanctions, US has cut its draft resolution from 35 paragraphs to four.
– SAIS honor grad Akshai Vikram is key author of report on US-Russia nuclear arms race.
– HuffPost says Trump has basically stopped taking intelligence reports.
– Politico has unredacted copy of State IG report on Pompeo and arms sales. Note: it’s “Sensitive But Unclassified”.
– WSJ says Xi is shifting Chinese economy inward.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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