Tag: 2020 Election
Unity isn’t what it sounds like, but two new states would help
The main theme of Joe Biden’s inauguration as 46th President was unity. He repeatedly appealed to it, as did others who came to the podium. But what does it really mean?
It can’t mean unanimity. In a democracy, disagreement, dissent, and debate are the norm, not the exception. If “reaching across the aisle” is to be a reality, on most issues it will mean bringing a few from the other side over to vote with the Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. Most Democrats and most Republicans won’t agree on most things, which is why we have Democrats and Republicans.
Nor can “unity” mean reconciling with the most extreme forces. No one is suggesting that the rioters of the 1/6 insurrection are part of whatever is meant by unity. Many are felons who belong in prison rather than in a political dialogue. Nor are those in Congress who de facto supported the insurrection with their votes against accepting the election results a force to be unified with. One of them has already filed impeachment charges against Biden, for his son’s alleged misdeeds. That won’t go anywhere, but there is no bridge to be built in that direction.
Biden did not specify what he meant by unity, but I think I know. He means agreement on the rules of the political game. That’s where things went haywire in the 2020 election and its aftermath. Republicans refused to accept many of the election procedures, even in states where they control the legislature and the electoral mechanism like Georgia and Arizona. After failing in more than five dozen court challenges, they continued to deny the validity of the election results. Their votes against certifying the electoral votes in the House and Senate were the last straw, especially following the attack on The Capitol.
The strife over electoral procedures and results is going to get worse, not better, despite Biden. Covid-19 created an obvious need for more readily accessible voting, by drop box and mail. Republicans will try to get rid of that accessibility before the 2022 election by requiring voter IDs, limiting absentee voting, and eliminating same-day registration. Reacting to one version of the Covid-19 relief bill the Democrats proposed, Trump himself said this:
The things they had in there were crazy. They had things, levels of voting that if you’d ever agreed to it, you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again,
The proof is in the pudding: Trump lost to Biden by almost 7 million votes, more than twice the margin of popular votes by which he lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016. Four years hence, given the aging of the Republican base and the Democratic predilections of younger people, that margin could be even larger. This makes the Electoral College, where a difference of 44,000 votes in three states could have given Trump victory, a growing problem.
But it can’t be solved readily. The more immediate, and less difficult, issue is the Senate, where the 50 Republican members represent 41 million fewer people than the 50 Democratic members. This is crazy. But there are some partial solutions readily available: admit the District of Columbia (whose 700,000 residents would be represented by two senators and one member of the House) and Puerto Rico (whose 3.2 million residents would be represented by two senators and four or five members of the House). Both the District and Puerto Rico have voted in favor of statehood. The District would become the [Frederick] Douglas Commonwealth (hence still DC).
It takes only a majority vote in both Houses to admit a new state, but in the Senate this proposition would face the filibuster, which can be overcome only with 60 (out of 100) votes. The filibuster has been abolished for particular issues (most Federal appointments and Supreme Court Justices), so why not do it for admission of new states to the Union? That is a narrowly defined category. There are four more US territories (other than PR), but the largest of them is Guam, with 168,000 people. Even if the other territories want statehood, their odds of getting 50% of the Senate to agree to it are minimal.
The House and Senate Democrats could do worse than put DC and PR statehood at the top of their priority list. Admission to the Union would partially redress gross inequities and give the residents of both places the voices in Congress that their numbers merit. The Republicans will vote against, but once admitted they will be compelled to do what they don’t do now: try to win the votes of nearly 4 million people they now ignore. That would be a most welcome kind of unity.
Stevenson’s army, January 16
DOJ backtracks on “capture and assassinate” charge.
Scientists doubt hypersonic weapons will work as hoped.
Officials waited months to approve vaccine distribution plan.
Fred Kaplan calls Pompeo worst SecState ever. I think Tillerson is also in the running.
I have a piece in The Hill calling for Biden to name a lot of temporary officials.
Jonathan Swan details Haspel threat to quit over political appointee.
Jamelle Bouie chronicles the 2-decade campaign against “voter fraud.”
Warning ignored: Capitol Police warned 3 days before attack. Attackers included trained military.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Stevenson’s army, January 14
Loyalty test? Army loyalty test.
UCMJ can be used against rioters.
Algorithms have consequences.
CNN explains why the JCS spoke out.
Note the leadership gaps.
Administration touts new Taiwan policy — and declassifies its major policy paper.
WSJ says Iran is working on nuclear weapons materials.
CNAS has new report on countering China’s technology policy.
Thinking like a politician: Punchbowl News suggests motives of the ten GOP who voted for impeachment.
Ten Republicans voted for Trump’s impeachment. Here’s how to think of them:
Rep. John Katko of New York is an upstate Republican who always has a tough general election race. His defection is notable because he’s the top Republican on the Homeland Security Committee — a chair if Republicans win the House back — so a break like this with the president is something.
Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois has been a harsh Trump critic for quite awhile. So, no surprise here, and no internal dynamics to note. He’s picked a lane — institutional hawk with an independent, anti-Trump streak — and he’s sticking to it.
Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, of course, is the most notable yes vote. Her decision to support impeachment likely gave political cover to the rest of the nine who joined her. Cheney’s internal image has been cemented: If you’re aligned with Trump, she’s a turncoat. If you’re part of the party that wants to move on from the 45th president, she did well by you. More about her in a minute.
Rep. Fred Upton of Michigan is a veteran Republican who doesn’t get hurt by standing up for what he believes in. Upton has been in the House for 35 years — he probably has 100 percent name ID at home. His district went narrowly for Trump in 2020 — 51-47 — and Upton won by nearly 16 points.
Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington State also has a district that voted narrowly for Trump. She typically wins her seat handily. She has no leadership position at risk by taking this vote.
Rep. Dan Newhouse of Washington State was on everyone’s watch list. Newhouse said before the vote he was undecided and then dropped a statement right as he got to the floor saying he’d vote to oust Trump. Newhouse’s district is solidly for Trump, so we’ll see how this plays out for him politically.
Rep. Peter Meijer of Michigan continues a trend of really interesting Republicans from the Grand Rapids area — Meijer’s predecessor was Justin Amash. This district seems to reward people who don’t fall in line with the party. Also, Meijer’s family owns the massive Meijer supermarket chain in the Midwest, so he has the personal resources and name ID to withstand attacks.
Rep. Tom Rice of South Carolina was a shocker that the Hill press corps and GOP leadership didn’t see coming. His district is conservative — Trump won by 20 points — and many people thought his yes vote was a mistake. It wasn’t. He said this in a statement Wednesday evening:
It has been a week since so many were injured, the United States Capitol was ransacked, and six people were killed, including two police officers. Yet, the President has not addressed the nation to ask for calm. He has not visited the injured and grieving. He has not offered condolences. Yesterday in a press briefing at the border, he said his comments were ‘perfectly appropriate.’ I have backed this President through thick and thin for four years. I campaigned for him and voted for him twice. But, this utter failure is inexcusable.
Rep. Anthony Gonzales of Ohio was a bit of a surprise to some onlookers. The former NFL wide receiver and Ohio State grad cuts his own image in the House.
Rep. David Valadao of California is perpetually one of the most endangered lawmakers in Congress. The Central Valley Republican was first elected in 2012, lost in 2018 and just won the House seat back. His district voted overwhelmingly for Joe Biden in November, so politically, this is a good move.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Too many good reasons to impeach, but he won’t
This is one of the last cyberspaces on earth where you would expect to find a video of Kevin McCarthy, California Republican and Minority Leader in the House. But here is his speech on impeachment today:
McCarthy is clear that the attack on the Capitol was undemocratic, violent, and criminal, aimed at interrupting the constitutionally required certification of Electoral College votes. He states there is no evidence of left-wing Antifa involvement. He says the President bears responsibility for the attack on the Capitol, and criticizes his failure to try to stop it. He says Joe Biden won the election and will be sworn in as President next week. To all of that I say: yes.
His main complaint is that no investigation has been conducted nor hearings held, though the facts adduced in the article of impeachment are all well-known and public. He claims a vote to impeach would further divide the nation, even though he knows that half dozen, or maybe more, Republicans will vote in favor of impeachment, as will the entire majority caucus. Instead of impeachment, he prefers a fact-finding commission and a censure resolution, neither of which he can convince Democrats to vote for.
The weight of the arguments in the two previous paragraphs weighs in favor of impeachment. McCarthy nevertheless is leading the House Republican charge against it, including false allegations from members of his own caucus that Biden did not win and that the Democrats advocated violence during the Black Lives Matter demonstrations.
In conclusion, McCarthy calls for an end to polarization, making reference to the fraught transition from John Adams to Thomas Jefferson in 1801. But he ignores the fact that Adams conceded, which Trump has not. He also ignores the fact that President-elect Biden has, like Jefferson, asked his supporters to put aside division and preached forgiveness. Trump has ignored that appeal.
McCarthy wants unity. I know where he can find it: in a vote, based on the arguments he presents, in favor of impeachment.
Stevenson’s army, January 13
State Dept says Sec. Pompeo cancelled his planned European trip in order to work on the transition. Reuters said the real reason was that he was denied high level meetings.
FP says Pompeo is ‘bluffing his way to a legacy.”
NYT piles on by reporting but disputing his claims about Iran and al Qaeda.
SASC hearing heard opposition to waiver for Austin. Hearing recording is here. I was especially impressed by statement from Naval War College Prof Lindsay Cohn on why no waiver is important for civil-military relations.
Smart move: WSJ says Biden will appoint several acting heads of agencies pending approval of nominees.
FT reports on Turkey’s many overseas operations.
FBI tries to explain why warning of Capitol violence didn’t have impact.
Parler users were at Capitol.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Stevenson’s army, January 12
SecState Pompeo seems determined to change many existing policies before January 20
in order to lock in Trump views and box in Biden. This week he did it with Taiwan and the Houthis. Yesterday he put Cuba on the terrorist supporter list. And today he going to link Iran to al Qaeda.
Meanwhile, Reuters says DOD is violating the new law blocking troop withdrawals from Afghanistan.
Dean Cohen calls for punishment of Capitol rioters.
Interesting case: MD Senators defend head of military medical school.
Politico warns of extremists in US military ranks.
As the son of a policeman, I’ve long been concerned about the militarization of local police. TNSR has good article.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).