Tag: Accountability
Prospects for real peace in Syria: not good
The sixth pledging Conference for the Future of Syria and the Region met in Brussels yesterday and today. On the margins, Baytna, a Syrian organization committed to empowering civil society, hosted a discussion (Peace in Syria: possibility or fantasy?) assessing the prospects for a real, sustainable peace. Not good, in two words.
Justice and accountability
The UN Commission of Inquiry and its Independent, Impartial and Independent Mechanism (IMMM) as well as the use of universal jurisdiction to prosecute war criminals in Germany are important tools. But they have not produced substantial results. Only a few political prisoners have been freed, out of well over 100,000. So far the accused are a few small fry. There will be a great deal more to do once the opportunity arises.
A political transition is vital. Justice goes beyond accountability, especially for women. A broader framework of rule of law and security is needed.
Failure to hold people accountable in Syria has encouraged Russian abuses in Ukraine. Impunity for Bashar al Asad has taught others that they can escape accountability.
The economy
The situation today is disastrous. The overwhelming majority of Syrians are poor and in need of assistance. That is partly due to international sanctions. Once real peace arrives, a strong central authority will still be needed to manage the economy. When the time comes for lifting of sanctions, the international community needs a plan to do it expeditiously. [I missed some of the presentation on the economy, so apologies for that].
Rights and government
Syria needs radical political decentralization. The constitution should limit the powers of the presidency. Elected local authorities should control education and some taxation authority. The government needs to respect the social, cultural, and political rights of minorities. We can learn from the recent constitution in Tunisia, which instituted decentralization as a principle of the state. The existing provisions for decentralization in Syria are not adequate.
Social cohesion and peacebuilding
Local actors are key. They have a deep understanding of how things really work at the community level. We need to understand their political and social agendas and respond to their context and priorities. Funding should be flexible and accessible, aimed at strengthening civil society organizations that set their own priorities, regardless of who the local authorities are. We should not create or impose risks on Syrians trying to meet local community needs.
On the pathway to peace, an audience member suggested Syrian representation is an issue. It is not enough just to exclude those “who have blood on their hands.” Inclusiveness has hampered negotiations. The course of the war in Ukraine suggests helping Syrians to defend themselves might help. Only the Syrian people will be able to remove the regime and rebuild civil society. It’s a long road. We need to invest in people inside Syria who will make a difference.
As my Arabic is miserable, I missed most of the discussion. But the bottom line was clear enough: prospects for real peace in Syria in the short run are not good.
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Accountability now
During Syria’s conflict, the Assad regime has continued committing many war crimes. Although de-escalation zones were established to mitigate conflict violence, the number of displaced Syrians increased. On February 5, Arab Center Washington DC hosted a panel discussion and a book review on the topic of Accountability in Syria: Achieving Transitional Justice in a Postconflict Society. The discussion involved three speakers: Radwan Ziadeh, a senior fellow for the Arab Center Washington DC, Mai El-Sadany, the legal and judicial director at the Tahrir Institute, and Mohammad Alaa Ghanem, a Syrian academic and pro-democracy campaigner.
War crimes
Ziadeh noted that because justice and accountability are left out in the Geneva and Astana talks, he wrote the book Accountability in Syria to call for attention to war atrocities and raise the issue of accountability. He listed five crimes that the Assad regime has committed in the last eight years.
- Use of air force: Opposition areas have been exposed to heavy, systematic, widespread, and indiscriminate bombing. While only 1% of victims killed by barrel bombs are opposition but 99% of victims are civilians. Other governments have failed to prevent the Syrian government from utilizing barrel bombs.
- Use of prohibited weapons: The Assad regime has utilized prohibited chemical weapons 37 times.
- Siege: Half a million of Syrians live besieged by Assad’s “surrender or starve” strategy.
- Torture and sectarian crimes: The regime carried out systematic torture at its secret prisons.
- Forced displacement: Displacement aims to remove people who have been disloyal. Forced displacement induces both the demographic change and the flight of Syrian refugees.
Forced displacement
Ghanem says that ceasefires, such as the Idlib and Daraa de-escalation zones, are a prelude to liquidation. Political analysts in Washington misunderstood ceasefires, which they thought would constitute a win-win solution that could empower local communities. Instead, ceasefires emboldened and benefited Assad’s regime, which used them to induce demographic change. He presented three purposes of ceasefires:
- Ceasefires have helped the Assad regime to conquer more territories by setting up a 1-2 year de-escalation period to relinquish oppositions’ heavy weapons and evacuate fighters.
- Ceasefires serve to relieve shortage of Assad’s manpower by freeing up regime resources to focus on other priority areas.
- Ceasefires provide an illusion of political process by designating areas for reconstruction while permitting the regime to commit systematic sectarian cleansing.
Remedies
El-Sadany argues that it’s time for justice now. Three tools are available for accountability:
- Documentation: Civil society, journalists, and lawyers should act together to preserve history and contribute to truth. For example, the New York Times utilizes open source investigation.
- UN Mechanisms: The United Nations has disappointed Syrians because of UN Security Council vetoes and the failure to make a referral to International Criminal Court (ICC). However, the UN Human Rights Council’s commissions of inquiry serves accountability by fact-finding and investigating crimes and perpetrators. In addition, the International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism (IIIM) was created to prepare files and assist the investigation and prosecution of crimes.
- Prosecution outside Syria: Syria is not a party to the Rome Statute and the UNSC has failed to refer its crimes to the ICC. But prosecution in other states is still possible.
El-Sadany proposes that the international community needs to amend, strengthen, and improve accountability mechanisms. Advocates should lobby their governments for more funding for accountability efforts and improved human rights laws. Lawyers should translate materials, especially on universal jurisdiction, into Arabic to reach Syrian victims and civil society.
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“A place to promote war criminals”
The Belgrade-based Humanitarian Law Center writes:
At this year’s Book Fair, the „Defence“ Media Centre, publishing organ of the Ministry of Defence (MoD), will again present books whose author is Nebojša Pavković, and organise a panel devoted to the NATO Intervention. The panel speakers, beside the retired commanders of the Yugoslav Army (VJ)/Serbian Army (VS), Božidar Delić and Ljubiša Diković, will be Vladimir Lazarević and Vinko Pandurević, both convicted war criminals. The Humanitarian Law Center (HLC) points out that by financing and promoting books and public forums where convicts for the most serious crimes are speakers, the MoD are openly treating with contempt the victims of those crimes, and demonstrating a clear adherence to the politics that led to numerous crimes in the former Yugoslavia, and denying the facts established before the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY).
As currently scheduled, the book by Nebojša Pavković will be presented at the 64th Book Fair on October 25, 2019, at 2 p.m. During the conflict in Kosovo, Pavković was the Commander of the Third Army of the VJ. He is a convicted war criminal. The book, entitled “The smell of gunpowder and death at KiM 1998”, is published by the Ministry of Defence in the “Warrior” series, whose author is Nebojša Pavković. Namely, at the last year’s Book Fair, Pavković’s war diary, entitled “Seventy-Eight Days of the Third Army in the Arms of the Merciful Angel” was presented, as well as three other books – the testimonies of war commanders and narratives of certain events (“The Battle for Paštrik” and “The Battle at Košare”). The HLC recalls that Pavković was sentenced to 22 years in prison before the ICTY for deportations, forcible transfers, murders and persecutions as crimes against humanity, and for killings as violations of the laws and customs of war. But this was not discussed at the presentation of the war diaries. The HLC also notes that the MoD spent almost 4 million dinars on costs related to the edition “Warrior” series. By promoting war criminals before the public as heroes and spending budget funds for this purpose, the MoD continues its past policy, which led to crimes against Albanian civilians in Kosovo, and had thereby reinterpreted the facts established before the ICTY.
On the same day, starting at 6 p.m. at the fair stand, the MoD is organising a panel on “Experiences from Actions during the NATO Aggression – Remembered by the Book” whose moderator will be the head of the publishing department of the Serbian Armed Forces, Miroslav Toholj, former Minister of Information in the Government of Republika Srpska (from 1993 to 1995). The panellists will be: Vladimir Lazarević, Commander of the VJ Priština Corps, sentenced by the ICTY to 14 years in prison for deporting and forcibly displacing the Albanian population during the Kosovo conflict; Vinko Pandurević, Commander of the Zvornik Brigade of the Republika Srpska Army, sentenced to 13 years in prison before the ICTY for helping and supporting crimes against humanity and violating the laws or customs of war; Ljubiša Diković, Commander of the 37th Motorised Brigade (37th mtbr) of the VJ and former Chief of the General Staff of the Serbian Armed Forces: and Božidar Delić, Commander of the 549th mtbr VJ. The HLC has recently presented evidence to the public about the role of Ljubiša Diković and Božidar Delić in crimes committed during the Kosovo conflict. Namely, the HLC presented facts and evidence in two Dossiers – Ljubiša Diković and Rudnica – regarding the involvement of the VJ 37th mtbr and Ljubiša Diković in crimes committed against Albanian civilians, as well as on the role of the VJ 549 mtbr whose commander was Božidar Delić. In the areas of responsibility of these two brigades in Kosovo, some 3,500 Albanian civilians were killed. The Serbian Office of the War Crimes Prosecutor has never investigated the HLC’s allegations of the involvement of Diković and Delić in these crimes.
In addition, the Media Defence Centre announces the publication of a book by Dragoljub Ojdanić, a former Chief of the VJ General Staff who was sentenced to 15 years in prison before the ICTY for helping and supporting the deportations and forcible transfers of the Albanian population from Kosovo.
The HLC calls on Serbian institutions to stop promoting and rehabilitating convicted war criminals and to pursue a policy that accepts established facts and takes into account the suffering of victims and their families.
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Accountability should not wait
On September 27, the Middle East Institute and the Pro-Justice jointly hosted a panel to launch the new book, Blacklist: Violations Committed by the Most Prominent Syrian Regime Figures and How to Bring Them to Justice. Blacklist identifies and provides detailed information on nearly 100 individuals accused of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in Syria over the past eight years. The book sheds light on the crimes themselves and outlines potential political and judicial avenues available to bring the perpetrators to justice.
The panel consisted of Anne Barnard, a New York Times journalist who has extensively covered the conflict in Syria, Wael Sawah, the president and director of Pro-Justice and former executive director of the Syrian Centre for Media and Freedom of Expression, and Charles Lister, a senior fellow and director of the Countering Terrorism and Extremism program at MEI. The event was moderated by Joyce Karam, who is the Washington correspondent for The National and adjunct professor at George Washington University.
The Syrian conflict is approaching its ninth year and increasingly becoming forgotten by the international community. Lister gave a broad overview of wartime consequences to remind the panel and audience of the ongoing atrocity. Syria is a disastrous humanitarian crisis with roughly 500,000 deaths since 2011. The conflict has an extensive history of war crimes, most of which are perpetuated by the central government of Syria. The Assad regime is responsible for 89% of civilian deaths, 99% of torture deaths, 89% of arbitrary arrests, and 85% of forced displacements. Barnard noted that even before the conflict, there were high rates of detention in the elaborate prison system established throughout the Assad dynasty, but as the conflict escalated from 2011 onward, the situation worsened. The UN has labeled the prisons in Syria as exterminate conditions with a system of sadistic torture and high levels of disease.
Sawah continued by saying that these facts and figures are important to note because without accountability and justice, there will never be a lasting peace in Syria. He stated that Blacklist is an important publication to act as an open guide to identify the perpetuators and assist legal professionals in creating a foundational narrative to work towards holding those responsible of crimes against humanity. Barnard agreed and said that the industrial prison system has fostered the ability of the regime to commit these crimes. 100,000 Syrians have not been located after their time detained. It is important to work towards identifying the fates of these people to take initial steps towards reaching justice through administering accountability.
Lister discussed how legal accountability does not seem likely for Assad and high-ranking members of the regime because the general perception is that the Syrian conflict has been won by the regime. He notes that it is far from over, but in the short-term sanctions on these individuals can restrict their international travel and ability to act as legitimate statesmen. Doing so will isolate the regime and not allow it to operate with impunity.
Sawah talked about the pivotal role Hezbollah, Russia, and Iran have played in enabling the Assad regime to survive throughout the civil war. The regime would have collapsed by 2013 without their support. They must be held accountable for their support of Assad and their own war crimes. Lister echoed this by mentioning the Russian precision strikes on civilian hospitals in opposition-held regions. He suggested that the US needs to begin an investigation of Russian war crimes to develop a portfolio of reports to name and shame their heinous actions against Syrian civilians.
The panel agreed that continued investigations such as Blacklist are needed to reach a stable peace in the future. Without making accountability for injustices, opposition groups will flourish, and civilians will continue to disdain the regime.
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Calm in Pristina
I’ve been in Pristina all week, where yesterday Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj resigned. A Special Tribunal concerned with crimes committed after its 1998-99 war has summoned him to The Hague. It is not yet known whether he is an indictee or a witness. He has been tried twice before at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia and found not guilty.
I talked with the Prime Minister Wednesday. He gave no hint of what was coming and likely didn’t know.
It’s a fraught time here. Tariffs Ramush levied on Serbian imports have stalled a European Union dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina that aimed to resolve the many issues remaining a generation after Slobodan Milosevic expelled half of Kosovo’s Albanian population but yielded after a 78-day NATO bombing campaign to UN administration of the Serbian-ruled province. Kosovo is now a parliamentary democracy–not yet recognized as sovereign by some–that requires elections within 45 days of resignation of the prime minister. The opposition, which had aimed for elections in October, is unlikely to be ready for them by the beginning of September.
Some will wonder whether the United States is behind the judicial maneuver that caused Ramush to resign. The Special Court is constituted under Kosovo law, but manned by mostly Europeans with an American chief prosecutor, one appointed by the Trump Administration. You don’t even have to be a practiced conspiracy theorist to imagine that the Americans, who were upset with Ramush’s tariffs and opposition to an ethnically based land swap deal with Belgrade, decided to get rid of him.
If so, they’ve made a big mistake. Ramush’s previous two court battles in The Hague did nothing but increase his popularity here. The tariffs and opposition to the land swap deal are popular here. Ramush’s summons to The Hague is far more likely to strengthen his political support than diminish it.
But it may well be that the court, acting on its own volition, thinks it has reason to question Ramush or even indict him. We just don’t know. Certainly Serbs and Albanians were murdered after the war; most people here think the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) of which Ramush was then a regional commander was in part responsible. I would favor holding the guilty accountable for those crimes. But it would be entirely premature to judge who.
So far, the popular reaction to Ramush’s resignation is calm. We attended the ongoing Pristina Film Festival last night, across from the Prime Minister’s office. A street basketball tournament occupied the space between the two. Families strolled happily in Mother Teresa Boulevard. Of course all that could change, but for the moment people seem more interested in enjoying the relatively cool, clear weather than worrying about what has happened to their prime minister.
Kosovo President Thaci, also a former KLA cadre, will need now to oversee the formation of some sort of caretaker government. That itself will be difficult as Ramush had a narrow margin in parliament. The election outcome is unpredictable. That’s the good news: despite political party abuses both in the campaigns and at the polling places, the press here is free by Balkan standards and elections are serious political contests. Coalition formation before and after leaves a lot uncertain about their outcome.
Elections are inherently divisive. Before it goes back to talks with Belgrade, Pristina will need more unity than it has had during Ramush’s tenure. My advice to whoever the powers will be: the only way to get a good deal is to be willing to walk away from a bad one. And the only way to make a good deal stick is to ensure that most of the citizens are convinced it is good.
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