Tag: Afghanistan
Stevenson’s army, September 11
– In WSJ Daniel Byman explains why the US hasn’t suffered another 9/11-sized attack.
– In WaPo, Colbert King notes that most US deaths have been from domestic terrorists.
– Philip Zelikow of the 9/11 commission reflects on the attacks and aftermath.
– NYT notes where the US continues to go after terrorists. As I have mentioned, the presidential war powers report says the US still has troops “equipped for combat” in 18 countries.
– A US official who dealt with Pakistan after 9/11 tells that story.
-NYT investigated and now has persuasive information that the final Kabul drone strike did not kill terrorists, but several civilians.
– NYT also says US trained the soldiers who launched the coup in Guinea.
– BuzzFeed has more on how Capitol Police missed the Jan. 6 insurrection.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Patriots wear masks and get vaccinated, no compromise
Today is 9/11, but today is also a day on which more than 1500 Americans will die of COVID-19. That is half of the number dying every day as died in the 9/11 attacks twenty years ago. The total confirmed deaths due to the corona virus now number well over 600,000. That is close to 1000 times the number of American service members killed in Afghanistan and Iraq over the past twenty years. Or, if you prefer, about 500 times the number of troops and contractors killed during two decades of the war on terror and two hundred times the number killed on 9/11.
The differences are obvious: COVID-19 has killed people over a year and half, not in a single day, and all over the country, not in one, two, or three places. It has killed mostly older people with pre-existing conditions and mostly brown and black people. But I still find it hard to understand how (mostly white) people who regard themselves as patriots can resist doing what each of them needs to do to prevent fellow-Americans from dying:
These are not difficult things to do. They do not infringe on personal freedom. Virtually every American gets at least half a dozen required vaccines while growing up. Masking to prevent yourself from infecting others is a social obligation. It should be a no-brainer.
It isn’t. Why not? Because you identify with a party and politicians who have decided to oppose vaccines and masking no matter the consequences. Maybe you also think the US government had a hand in attacking the twin towers. Likely you thought Barack Obama was not born in the US. Even more likely, you think Biden won the 2020 election due to fraud. You are prepared to personally interfere with women’s freedom to choose whether she wants to have a baby (as encouraged by a recent Texas law), but you are not willing to have the government, which is responsible for the public welfare, or your employer, who is required to provide a safe workplace, insist that you take simple precautions not to infect others.
9/11 was a moment of extraordinary unity among Americans. We reacted in shock and horror, applauded the first responders, mourned the dead, and sought punishment for those who planned and ordered the attacks. The results 20 years later are not just disappointing but counter-productive: there are now more jihadists in more countries than ever before. It is hard to justify the sacrifice not just of Americans but also the hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, Afghans, and others who have died in the war on terror.
Now we find ourselves sharply divided, between those willing to do what little needs to be done for the common good and those who are unwilling. That division doesn’t sound like a winning formula either, but we’ll have to live with it. The unwilling are not patriots. They have betrayed their fellow citizens and are willing to see many more die. President Biden is right to require them to protect others or lose their livelihoods. Patriots wear masks and get vaccinated. There should be no compromise.
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Stevenson’s army, September 8
-WSJ says Iran blocks access to nuclear sites.
-US News says China may take over Bagram.
-NYT profiles Taliban cabinet.
– Analyst assesses moving Israel into Centcom.
-FP says Lithuania backs Taiwan.
-Ex-CIA analyst hits post 9/11 reforms.
– Biden packages disaster relief with refugee aid.
– WaPo’s John Kelly cites some historically wrong predictions — and includes the link. read & enjoy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | September 6 – 10, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Iraq’s October ElectionsL A Game Changer or More of the Same? | September 7, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington | Register Here
Two years after massive protests erupted in Iraq, early parliamentary elections will be held in October. Although the elections were one of the demands of the demonstrators, they are likely to be boycotted by these same activists as well as a large part of the Iraqi electorate. Yet, formal and informal coalitions have registered to run candidates with the hope of influencing the formation of the next government. If a massive boycott occurs, will the election be a gamechanger to address the new demands of Iraqi society, or will the results preserve the status quo and further de-legitimize the Iraqi state?
Speakers:
Munqith Dagher
CEO and Founder, Independent Institute of Administration and Civil Society Studies
Rahman Al-Jebouri
Senior Fellow, Institute of Regional and International Studies, American University of Iraq Sulaimani
Patricia Karam
Regional Director, Middle East North Africa Division, International Republican Institute
- Taliban 2.0: What we Should Expect for Afghanistan’s New Rulers | September 8, 2021 | 9:30 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
A quarter-century ago, the Taliban established a theocratic authoritarian Islamist regime that engaged in systematic internal repression, denial of human rights to Afghans and remained an international pariah. Initial indications are mixed at best whether their new government will be different this time around. While the Taliban have refrained from large-scale reprisal killings, their return has prompted a mass exodus and mounting worries over how they will treat free media, women, minorities, and dissent.
Will the Taliban now act on their statements of forming an inclusive government, respecting Afghanistan’s diversity, and ensuring services and jobs for all Afghans including women, or return to establishing a Sunni clerical dictatorship? Will they honor their counterterrorism commitments and work with the West to ensure aid flows or once again adopt isolation? How can Washington and its allies still influence the Taliban’s behavior?
Speakers:
Hameed Hakimi
Research Associate, Chatham House
Sahar Halaimzai
Co-founder and Leader Tiem4RealPeace; Nonresident senior fellow, Atlantic Council
Abubakar Siddique
Editor, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Gandhara website
Iulia Joja (moderator)
Project Director, Afghanistan Watch; Senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
- The Global Impact of 9/11: Twenty Years On | September 9, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
The September 11, 2001, attack on the United States redefined international security threats and altered the nature of warfare globally. To commemorate the 20th anniversary, the Wilson Center examines the lasting impact of 9/11 and the global war on terror internationally, with a specific regional focus on the Middle East, South Asia, and Europe. Experts will discuss the enduring legacy of 9/11 in terms of conflict and regional instability, jihadism, politics, and U.S. global leadership.
Speakers:
Bruce Hoffman
Global Fellow; Professor, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service; Visiting Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations; Senior Fellow, U.S. Military Academy’s Combating Terrorism Center
Michael Kugelman
Deputy Director and Senior Associate for South Asia
Fernando Reinares
Global Fellow; Senior Analyst and Director, Program on Violent Radicalization and Global Terrorism at the Elcano Royal Institute; Professor of Political Science and Security Studies, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos in Madrid
Nadia Oweidat
Assistant Professor of History and Security Studies, Kansas State University
Robin Wright
USIP-Wilson Center Distinguished Fellow; Author and Columnist for The New Yorker
- Palestinian Protests and the Future of the Palestinian Struggle | September 9, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
Since the Palestinian Authority’s killing of political activist Nizar Banat in June, Palestinians have been holding protests in Ramallah and other parts of the West Bank. The PA has responded with tear gas, stun grenades, and harassment of human rights defenders and journalists, in what has been described as a “concerted crackdown on freedom of speech and the right to peaceful protest.” In recent weeks, dozens of protesters – including prominent human rights activists – were detained by PA security forces.
While the detainees have since been released, the crackdown highlights the Palestinian leadership’s diminishing tolerance for dissent as well as a deeper crisis of legitimacy. What’s behind these latest protests as well as the PA’s crackdown against them? What is the relationship between the protests in Ramallah and recent Palestinian popular political mobilizations in Gaza, Jerusalem, and inside the Green Line? And what do these Palestinian initiatives mean for the overarching struggle against ongoing Israeli occupation and dispossession?
Speakers:
Hanan Ashrawi
Spokesperson of the Palestinian delegation to the Middle East Peace Process; member of the Executive Committee of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO)
Fadi Quran
Campaigns Director, Avaaz
Khaled Elgindy (moderator)
Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute; Director, MEI Program on Palestine and Israeli-Palestinian Affairs
Lara Friedman (moderator)
President, Foundation for Middle East Peace
- Two Decades Later: Reflecting on Terrorism & Counterterrorism Since 9/11 | September 10, 2021 | 10:30 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
In the 20 years since al-Qaeda dramatically struck the United States on September 11, 2001, counterterrorism campaigns have sought to neutralize and contain terrorist threats in every corner of the globe. Over time, counterterrorism strategy and tactics have evolved, adapting to differing threats. Despite enormous investment in counterterrorism, however, the scope, sophistication, and scale of terrorism threats have arguably increased, not declined. The world now faces not one but two global jihadist movements and a proliferating array of other groups, ideologies, and challenges.
What lessons can we learn from two decades of U.S. and allied counterterrorism efforts? What is the next wave of terrorism threats likely to look like? How should the U.S. respond most effectively to new and evolving threats? And how might the global terrorism landscape be affected by the drive to ‘end forever wars?’
Speakers:
Tricia Bacon
Associate Professor, American University; former counterterrorism analyst, U.S. Department of State
Edmund Fitton-Brown
Coordinator, ISIL/Al-Qaida/Taliban Sanctions Monitoring Team, United Nations; former Ambassador of the United Kingdom to Yemen
Michael Nagata
Distinguished senior fellow, MEI; Senior Vice President and Strategic Advisor, CACI International Inc.; former Director of Strategy, U.S. National Counterterrorism Center & former Commander, U.S. Special Operations Command
Charles Lister, moderator
Senior fellow and director, Countering Terrorism & Extremism and Syria Programs, MEI
- Converging Lines: Tracing the Artistic Lineage of the Arab Diaspora in the U.S. | September 10, 2021 | 11:30 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute Arts and Culture Center is proud to mark its 75th anniversary with the exhibition Converging Lines: Tracing the Artistic Lineage of the Arab Diaspora in the U.S. The exhibit features seventeen leading Arab American and Arab diaspora artists, including pioneering artists Etel Adnan, Hugette Caland, and Kahlil Gibran.
Converging Lines explores some of the aesthetic threads that connect the community of Arab diaspora artists whose contributions to American art have gone largely unrecognized. The artworks are linked by shared themes like exile, memory formation, changing identities, and the state of in-betweenness that often accompanies migration.
Speakers:
Maymanah Farhat
Art history researcher focused on underrepresented artists and forgotten art scenes
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Stevenson’s army, September 2
– State defends its handling of refugees, given the immigration law restrictions.
– David Rothkopf has more details on same point.
– Politico tells of evacuations via a CIA base.
-Reuters summarizes the blame game.
– HASC has a bunch of Afghan-related amendments for NDAA.
– Sen. Cotton organizes a Senate letter.
– James Hohmann worries about civilian control.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The Americans are out, but conflict will persist
Wisely, the Americans left Afghanistan at the beginning of the August 31 deadline, not its end. The 3:29 pm departure of the last flight from Kabul took off at 11:59 pm Afghanistan time, which is 7.5 hours ahead of Washington. Hanging on until the last moment would have invited another suicide bomb, a heat-seeking missile attack on a departing plane, or other spectacular move by ISIS Khorasan.
More than 120,000 people were evacuated, but hundreds of eligible people are known to have been left behind. The Biden Administration has pledged to continue to try to get people out. That should prove possible from regional airports or by land, but it will likely be done as covert action rather than in public. The Taliban have pledged to allow anyone out who wants to leave, but I wouldn’t believe that until we see it.
The UN Security Council passed a resolution today, with China and Russia abstaining. The resolution asks that the airport be kept open for both evacuations and incoming humanitarian assistance. The French wanted a “safe zone” around the airport, but they didn’t get it. Turkey and Qatar, both more inclined towards Islamist rule than many other countries, have been volunteering to keep it open with private companies, but the Taliban have not accepted that proposition yet. The UNSC resolution also formalizes international community demands that the Taliban not support international terrorism, respect human rights (in particular those of women and girls), and reach an “inclusive” political settlement.
None of that is likely without enormous international pressure. The main leverage derives from money, not legitimacy. The Taliban regard themselves as legitimate and most of the people of Afghanistan have no choice. What the Taliban need more than anything else to solidify their legistimacy is hard cash. Afghanistan’s assets abroad are frozen and the International Monetary Fund distribution of “Special Drawing Rights” (to obtain hard currency) have not been transferred. The Taliban are saying they will block poppy and opium production, which has been a main source of their income. Moscow is already calling on the IMF and World Bank to send reconstruction aid. The West will want to see conditions at least partly met first.
There is a real prospect fighting will continue in Afghanistan, not only between the Taliban and ISIS-K but also between the Taliban and their most vigorous opponents, especially in the Panjshir Valley. In addition, Taliban forces may not be as completely unified as they appeared when fighting the Afghan government. Falling out among revolutionaries is more the rule than the exception. Odds are we’ll see more than one violent conflict emerge in the aftermath of the American withdrawal.
That will not be good news for the people of Afghanistan. They have suffered mightily not just for twenty years since the American invasion but for more than 40. While it is commonly said that the Americans accomplished nothing, I think that simply isn’t true. While the American military assistance can be labelled a complete failure, civilian assistance enabled girls and women to get education, a mostly free press to flourish, health standards to rise, and civil society to emerge. Only time will tell, but my guess is the Taliban are in for a roughter ride than when they took over power in the 1990s. They will have difficult choices to make between brutal repression, their usual habit, and the kind of inclusion that could win popular support.
The Americans are well out of the picture, even if their chosen mode of departure was unnecessarily chaotic and destabilizing. President Biden deserves credit for abandoning a war that no longer made sense but also criticism for the failure to do it in an orderly way. The likelihood of stability in the aftermath is not high. The Americans are out, but conflict will persist.
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