Tag: Afghanistan
Peace Picks | September 6 – 10, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Iraq’s October ElectionsL A Game Changer or More of the Same? | September 7, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington | Register Here
Two years after massive protests erupted in Iraq, early parliamentary elections will be held in October. Although the elections were one of the demands of the demonstrators, they are likely to be boycotted by these same activists as well as a large part of the Iraqi electorate. Yet, formal and informal coalitions have registered to run candidates with the hope of influencing the formation of the next government. If a massive boycott occurs, will the election be a gamechanger to address the new demands of Iraqi society, or will the results preserve the status quo and further de-legitimize the Iraqi state?
Speakers:
Munqith Dagher
CEO and Founder, Independent Institute of Administration and Civil Society Studies
Rahman Al-Jebouri
Senior Fellow, Institute of Regional and International Studies, American University of Iraq Sulaimani
Patricia Karam
Regional Director, Middle East North Africa Division, International Republican Institute
- Taliban 2.0: What we Should Expect for Afghanistan’s New Rulers | September 8, 2021 | 9:30 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
A quarter-century ago, the Taliban established a theocratic authoritarian Islamist regime that engaged in systematic internal repression, denial of human rights to Afghans and remained an international pariah. Initial indications are mixed at best whether their new government will be different this time around. While the Taliban have refrained from large-scale reprisal killings, their return has prompted a mass exodus and mounting worries over how they will treat free media, women, minorities, and dissent.
Will the Taliban now act on their statements of forming an inclusive government, respecting Afghanistan’s diversity, and ensuring services and jobs for all Afghans including women, or return to establishing a Sunni clerical dictatorship? Will they honor their counterterrorism commitments and work with the West to ensure aid flows or once again adopt isolation? How can Washington and its allies still influence the Taliban’s behavior?
Speakers:
Hameed Hakimi
Research Associate, Chatham House
Sahar Halaimzai
Co-founder and Leader Tiem4RealPeace; Nonresident senior fellow, Atlantic Council
Abubakar Siddique
Editor, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Gandhara website
Iulia Joja (moderator)
Project Director, Afghanistan Watch; Senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
- The Global Impact of 9/11: Twenty Years On | September 9, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
The September 11, 2001, attack on the United States redefined international security threats and altered the nature of warfare globally. To commemorate the 20th anniversary, the Wilson Center examines the lasting impact of 9/11 and the global war on terror internationally, with a specific regional focus on the Middle East, South Asia, and Europe. Experts will discuss the enduring legacy of 9/11 in terms of conflict and regional instability, jihadism, politics, and U.S. global leadership.
Speakers:
Bruce Hoffman
Global Fellow; Professor, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service; Visiting Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations; Senior Fellow, U.S. Military Academy’s Combating Terrorism Center
Michael Kugelman
Deputy Director and Senior Associate for South Asia
Fernando Reinares
Global Fellow; Senior Analyst and Director, Program on Violent Radicalization and Global Terrorism at the Elcano Royal Institute; Professor of Political Science and Security Studies, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos in Madrid
Nadia Oweidat
Assistant Professor of History and Security Studies, Kansas State University
Robin Wright
USIP-Wilson Center Distinguished Fellow; Author and Columnist for The New Yorker
- Palestinian Protests and the Future of the Palestinian Struggle | September 9, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
Since the Palestinian Authority’s killing of political activist Nizar Banat in June, Palestinians have been holding protests in Ramallah and other parts of the West Bank. The PA has responded with tear gas, stun grenades, and harassment of human rights defenders and journalists, in what has been described as a “concerted crackdown on freedom of speech and the right to peaceful protest.” In recent weeks, dozens of protesters – including prominent human rights activists – were detained by PA security forces.
While the detainees have since been released, the crackdown highlights the Palestinian leadership’s diminishing tolerance for dissent as well as a deeper crisis of legitimacy. What’s behind these latest protests as well as the PA’s crackdown against them? What is the relationship between the protests in Ramallah and recent Palestinian popular political mobilizations in Gaza, Jerusalem, and inside the Green Line? And what do these Palestinian initiatives mean for the overarching struggle against ongoing Israeli occupation and dispossession?
Speakers:
Hanan Ashrawi
Spokesperson of the Palestinian delegation to the Middle East Peace Process; member of the Executive Committee of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO)
Fadi Quran
Campaigns Director, Avaaz
Khaled Elgindy (moderator)
Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute; Director, MEI Program on Palestine and Israeli-Palestinian Affairs
Lara Friedman (moderator)
President, Foundation for Middle East Peace
- Two Decades Later: Reflecting on Terrorism & Counterterrorism Since 9/11 | September 10, 2021 | 10:30 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
In the 20 years since al-Qaeda dramatically struck the United States on September 11, 2001, counterterrorism campaigns have sought to neutralize and contain terrorist threats in every corner of the globe. Over time, counterterrorism strategy and tactics have evolved, adapting to differing threats. Despite enormous investment in counterterrorism, however, the scope, sophistication, and scale of terrorism threats have arguably increased, not declined. The world now faces not one but two global jihadist movements and a proliferating array of other groups, ideologies, and challenges.
What lessons can we learn from two decades of U.S. and allied counterterrorism efforts? What is the next wave of terrorism threats likely to look like? How should the U.S. respond most effectively to new and evolving threats? And how might the global terrorism landscape be affected by the drive to ‘end forever wars?’
Speakers:
Tricia Bacon
Associate Professor, American University; former counterterrorism analyst, U.S. Department of State
Edmund Fitton-Brown
Coordinator, ISIL/Al-Qaida/Taliban Sanctions Monitoring Team, United Nations; former Ambassador of the United Kingdom to Yemen
Michael Nagata
Distinguished senior fellow, MEI; Senior Vice President and Strategic Advisor, CACI International Inc.; former Director of Strategy, U.S. National Counterterrorism Center & former Commander, U.S. Special Operations Command
Charles Lister, moderator
Senior fellow and director, Countering Terrorism & Extremism and Syria Programs, MEI
- Converging Lines: Tracing the Artistic Lineage of the Arab Diaspora in the U.S. | September 10, 2021 | 11:30 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute Arts and Culture Center is proud to mark its 75th anniversary with the exhibition Converging Lines: Tracing the Artistic Lineage of the Arab Diaspora in the U.S. The exhibit features seventeen leading Arab American and Arab diaspora artists, including pioneering artists Etel Adnan, Hugette Caland, and Kahlil Gibran.
Converging Lines explores some of the aesthetic threads that connect the community of Arab diaspora artists whose contributions to American art have gone largely unrecognized. The artworks are linked by shared themes like exile, memory formation, changing identities, and the state of in-betweenness that often accompanies migration.
Speakers:
Maymanah Farhat
Art history researcher focused on underrepresented artists and forgotten art scenes
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Stevenson’s army, September 2
– State defends its handling of refugees, given the immigration law restrictions.
– David Rothkopf has more details on same point.
– Politico tells of evacuations via a CIA base.
-Reuters summarizes the blame game.
– HASC has a bunch of Afghan-related amendments for NDAA.
– Sen. Cotton organizes a Senate letter.
– James Hohmann worries about civilian control.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The Americans are out, but conflict will persist
Wisely, the Americans left Afghanistan at the beginning of the August 31 deadline, not its end. The 3:29 pm departure of the last flight from Kabul took off at 11:59 pm Afghanistan time, which is 7.5 hours ahead of Washington. Hanging on until the last moment would have invited another suicide bomb, a heat-seeking missile attack on a departing plane, or other spectacular move by ISIS Khorasan.
More than 120,000 people were evacuated, but hundreds of eligible people are known to have been left behind. The Biden Administration has pledged to continue to try to get people out. That should prove possible from regional airports or by land, but it will likely be done as covert action rather than in public. The Taliban have pledged to allow anyone out who wants to leave, but I wouldn’t believe that until we see it.
The UN Security Council passed a resolution today, with China and Russia abstaining. The resolution asks that the airport be kept open for both evacuations and incoming humanitarian assistance. The French wanted a “safe zone” around the airport, but they didn’t get it. Turkey and Qatar, both more inclined towards Islamist rule than many other countries, have been volunteering to keep it open with private companies, but the Taliban have not accepted that proposition yet. The UNSC resolution also formalizes international community demands that the Taliban not support international terrorism, respect human rights (in particular those of women and girls), and reach an “inclusive” political settlement.
None of that is likely without enormous international pressure. The main leverage derives from money, not legitimacy. The Taliban regard themselves as legitimate and most of the people of Afghanistan have no choice. What the Taliban need more than anything else to solidify their legistimacy is hard cash. Afghanistan’s assets abroad are frozen and the International Monetary Fund distribution of “Special Drawing Rights” (to obtain hard currency) have not been transferred. The Taliban are saying they will block poppy and opium production, which has been a main source of their income. Moscow is already calling on the IMF and World Bank to send reconstruction aid. The West will want to see conditions at least partly met first.
There is a real prospect fighting will continue in Afghanistan, not only between the Taliban and ISIS-K but also between the Taliban and their most vigorous opponents, especially in the Panjshir Valley. In addition, Taliban forces may not be as completely unified as they appeared when fighting the Afghan government. Falling out among revolutionaries is more the rule than the exception. Odds are we’ll see more than one violent conflict emerge in the aftermath of the American withdrawal.
That will not be good news for the people of Afghanistan. They have suffered mightily not just for twenty years since the American invasion but for more than 40. While it is commonly said that the Americans accomplished nothing, I think that simply isn’t true. While the American military assistance can be labelled a complete failure, civilian assistance enabled girls and women to get education, a mostly free press to flourish, health standards to rise, and civil society to emerge. Only time will tell, but my guess is the Taliban are in for a roughter ride than when they took over power in the 1990s. They will have difficult choices to make between brutal repression, their usual habit, and the kind of inclusion that could win popular support.
The Americans are well out of the picture, even if their chosen mode of departure was unnecessarily chaotic and destabilizing. President Biden deserves credit for abandoning a war that no longer made sense but also criticism for the failure to do it in an orderly way. The likelihood of stability in the aftermath is not high. The Americans are out, but conflict will persist.
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Peace Picks | August 30-September 3, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Grim Prospects for Women and Girls in Afghanistan | Aug 31, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Heritage Foundation| Register Here
As the world watched Afghanistan fall to the Taliban in a matter of weeks, one point was clear: the lives of Afghan women and girls would forever be changed. Over the last twenty years, women and girls made tremendous gains by going to school, holding political office, and entering the working world. Hard-won freedoms became a part of everyday life, and Afghan women were actively enjoying them.
With the Taliban back in power, many of these gains will likely be lost. So, what can be done now to safeguard the rights of Afghan women and girls? Join the Heritage Foundation as a distinguished panel of experts tackles the scale of the problem and realistic actions that the United States and the international community can take to mitigate the damage.
Speakers:
Lisa Curtis
Senior Fellow and Director, Indo-Pacific Security Program, Center for a New American Security
Heela Najibullah
Conflict and Peace Researcher
Author of “Reconciliation and Social Healing in Afghanistan”
Amb. Roya Rahmani
Former Ambassador of Afghanistan to the United States
Nicole Robinson (moderator)
Research Associate, Allison Center for Foreign Policy, The Heritage Foundation
2. #GermanyVotes – One month to go: The 2021 German elections and their implications | Sep 1, 2021 | 9:00 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
This event kicks off the Europe Center’s #GermanyVotes: The Superwahljahr Series, a collection of virtual and hybrid events focusing on Germany’s upcoming federal elections. Germans head to the polls on September 26 to pick a new government at a crucial moment in German politics. The elections will mark more than the usual electoral turnover as Chancellor Angela Merkel steps down after sixteen years at the helm of Europe’s largest political and economic power.
The panel will discuss what changes a new government and leadership in Berlin will bring about for Germany, Europe, and the transatlantic alliance. Against the backdrop of a still-new US administration, global crises including the impact of the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the COVID-19 pandemic, and new challenges to the country’s economic model, what new vision will a future German government and chancellor forge for Germany and its place in the world?
Speakers:
Tyson Barker
Head, Technology and Global Affairs Program, German Council on Foreign Relations
Constanze Stelzenmüller
Senior Fellow, Center on the United States and Europe; Fritz Stern Chair on Germany and trans-Atlantic Relations, Brookings Institution
Ines Pohl (moderator)
Washington Bureau Chief, Deutsche Welle
- The 9/11 Attacks from a Historical Perspective | Sep 2, 2021 | 7:45 AM EST | Royal United Services Institute | Register Here
The attacks by the Al Qaeda terrorist organisation on the World Trade Centre in New York and the Pentagon, on 11 September 2001 were cataclysmic in totally changing the global strategic environment. This event will commemorate the 20th anniversary.
Speakers:
Prof. Peter Neumann
Professor of Security Studies, Department of War Studies, King’s College London; Senior Associate Fellow, RUSI
Suzanne Raine
Trustee, RUSI
Sir John Scarlett KCMG OBE
Distinguished Fellow, RUSI; Former Chief, MI6
- Tunisia – What Now? | Sep 2, 2021 | 9:00 AM EST | CSIS | Register Here
Tunisia, the lone democracy remaining from the Arab Spring, is at a crossroads. The Covid-19 pandemic devastated an already struggling economy, while the political system has grown increasingly ineffectual. Last month, Tunisia’s president Kais Saied suspended the parliament, sacked the prime minister, and significantly increased his own power for 30 days, and on August 23 he extended those moves indefinitely.
What does the future hold for Tunisia? What can the United States and its allies, who together have invested billions of dollars in the Tunisian democratic experiment, do to support Tunisia in its crisis?
Speakers:
Congressman David Price (D-NC)
Chairman, House Democracy Partnership; Member, House Appropriations Subcommittee on State Foreign Operations, and Related Programs
Bowman Cutter
Chairman, the Tunisian Enterprise Fund
Mohamed Malouche
Chairman, Tunisian American Young Professionals
Lobna Jeribi
Founder and President, Solidar Tunisia
Shawna Bader-Blau
Executive Director, Solidarity Center
Jon B. Alterman
Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director, Middle East Program, CSIS
Marti Flacks
Director and Senior Fellow, Human Rights Initiative, CSIS
5. Climate Change: Entry Point for Regional Peace in the Middle East | Sep 2, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | Clingendael Institute | Register Here
Climate change is hitting the Middle East region hard with unbearable temperatures, water scarcity, desertification and saltwater intrusion undermining local food production. After the recent eruption of violence the need to address underlying stresses of grievances of people living in the region is mentioned as a factor that deserves extra attention. Whereas conflicts over identity and history are hard to overcome, it may still be possible to enter into renewed dialogues over how to build resilience against climate change and use renewables to enhance the level of energy security that could be used for air conditioning and water desalination. In a region prone to tensions, climate change is a common enemy that people in the region are facing.
By using practical examples, this online event will consider how a focus on climate adaptation and mitigation could be used as an entry point for bringing together people that otherwise might hardly talk to each other. What can they gain from entering into a dialogue over better management and distribution of scarce natural resources, and may this also foster a more general spirit of mutual understanding?
Speakers:
Yana Abu Taleb
Director, EcoPeace Middle East – Jordan
Rene van Nes
Head, Division of Conflict Prevention and Mediation Support, European External Action Service
Prof. Alon Tal
Member, Knesset
Dr. Shaddad Attili
Advisor ranking Minister, Negotiations Support Department, PLO
Louise van Schaik (moderator)
Head, EU & Global Affairs Unit, the Clingendael Institute
Tobias von Lossow (Q&A)
Research Fellow, the Clingendael Institute
6. Syria Today: How Assad “Won” beyond the Military | Sep 2, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to announce a panel discussion featuring contributors to The Middle East Journal’s 2021 Spring and Summer Issues. As the civil war in Syria endures after a decade of conflict, Bashar al-Assad continues to pursue his consolidation of authority and regime legitimization. Aside from military tactics, Assad has diversified his approach to this pursuit through a number of tactics, including swaying influential social and religious leaders to support state security measures and depending on foreign aid to support the reconstruction of the country. A panel of journal contributors will join to discuss these broader themes featured in their articles and delve deeper into the internal workings of the Syrian regime.
Speakers:
Rahaf Aldoughli
Contributor, Middle East Journal; Lecturer, Middle East and North African Studies, Lancaster University
Guy Burton
Contributor, Middle East Journal; Visiting Fellow, LSE Middle East Centre
Eric Lob
Contributor, Middle East Journal; Associate Professor, Department of Politics and International Relations, Florida International University
Emma Beals (moderator)
Non-resident scholar, MEI
7. Prospects for US-Iran Relations under Raisi | Sep 2, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here
The Iranian Studies Unit of the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies and Arab Center Washington DC invite you to a lecture by Dr. Vali Nasr on the prospects for US-Iran relations under the Ebrahim Raisi and Joe Biden Administrations. Dr. Nasr is the Majid Khadduri Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center.
Speakers:
Vali Nasr (speaker)
Majid Khadduri Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)
Khalil E. Jahshan (moderator)
Executive Director, Arab Center Washington DC
Mehran Kamrava (moderator)
Chair, Iranian Studies Unit, Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies
8. Learning the Lessons of Afghanistan | Sep 2, 2021 | 7:00 PM EST | Institute for Policy Studies | Register Here
IPS’ Fellow, Phyllis Bennis will be featured in a webinar series, presented by Massachusetts Peace Action. A forum of three deeply knowledgeable speakers who will give their response to these themes and their suggested lessons.
Speakers:
Kathy Kelly
Nonviolent activist
Phyllis Bennis
Middle East Politics Specialist, Institute for Policy Studies
Chris Velazquez
Afghanistan War veteran; Digital Director, Veterans for Peace
Will Hopkins (moderator)
New Hampshire Peace Action
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Stevenson’s army, August 30
I often warn students that they can’t write a good paper on Congress using Google because all the significant inside information is behind paywalls that only lobbyists can afford. There’s more proof of that in Ben Smith’s column about the purchase of Politico for $1 billion [!] by Axel Springer. He notes that half Politico’s revenue comes from Politico Pro newsletters that cost $10K or more a year.
– Politico has its own scoop today — details of what DOD officials knew of the anticipated mass casualty event in Kabul.
– NYT says US fired counter-rocket munitions against ISIS-K attacks.
– WSJ says North Korea has restarted a reactor.
– France wants UN to establish safe zone around Kabul airport.
– Dan Drezner says Congress doesn’t care much about foreign policy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 27
– US still expects a truck bomb near the Kabul airport.
– WSJ has good background reports on ISIS-K and on Haqqani network.
– Treasury allows humanitarian aid to Afghanistan.
FAOs take note: naval war college prof says US can’t succeed in building foreign armies.
-Defense One notes omission from Russian strategy document.
– Poll shows US support for defending Taiwan.
– WaPo has interactive site to follow redistricting.
– WOTR says we need to change combatant command arrangements.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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