Tag: Afghanistan
Stevenson’s army, August 10
– AP sees no increase in US airstrikes in Afghanistan.
– Jeff Schogol says B52s and AC130s are going there.
– WSJ says Russia is having problems in Syria.
Confession: NYT says its prize winning reporter covering the Manhattan Project took money and distorted some news. The paper also tells about a black reporter who exposed lies about radiation.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks August 9 – 15, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Update on the Victims of Sinjar: The Need to Locate Thousands of Missing Yezidis | August 10, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
In 2014 the Islamic State began its campaign to annihilate Yezidis in Iraq and Syria. The territorial defeat of ISIS did not, however, end the suffering of Yezidis and other victims of Daesh. Until now, there are an estimated 2,868 Yezidis whose whereabouts are still unknown. Many of them were presumed to be dead. However, in July, Yezidi women were discovered in Syria and Iraq who had been missing since 2014 – underscoring the need for concerted international search efforts. Yezidi civil society organizations have called upon the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, the Iraqi Government, the Kurdistan Regional Government, the Autonomous Administration of Northeast Syria, Interpol, UNITAD, UNAMI, and other stakeholders to craft a plan and mount a serious effort to locate Yezidi abductees who are still alive and suffering.
Speakers:
Peter Galbraith
Former U.S. Ambassador to Croatia and Assistant Secretary General of the United Nations in Afghanistan
Abid Shamdeen
Co-Founder & Executive Director, Nadia’s Initiative
Nisan Ahmado
Journalist, Voice of America
Merissa Khurma (introduction)
Program Direct, Middle East Program, The Wilson Center
Amy Austin (moderator)
Public Policy fellow and former visiting Scholar at Harvard University
- RESCHEDULED: U.S. National Security in the Indo-Pacific: A Conversation with Senator Tammy Duckworth | August 10, 2021 | 11:30 AM EST | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Please join the Center for Strategic and International Studies for a Smart Women, Smart Power conversation with U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth (D-IL). She will discuss U.S. national security in the Indo-Pacific and her recent visit to the region. Senator Duckworth is an Iraq War Veteran, Purple Heart recipient and former Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. A Blackhawk helicopter pilot, she was among the first handful of Army women to fly combat missions during Operation Iraqi Freedom. Senator Duckworth served in the Reserve Forces for 23 years before retiring at the rank of Lieutenant Colonel in 2014. She was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2016 after representing Illinois’s Eighth Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives for two terms.
Senator Duckworth serves on the Armed Services Committee; the Environment & Public Works Committee; the Commerce, Science, Transportation Committee; and the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Committee.
Speakers:
U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth (D-IL)
Member, Senate Armed Services Committee
Nina Easton
Senior Associate (non-resident), CSIS
Beverly Kirk
Fellow and Director for Outreach, International Security Program, and Director, Smart Women, Smart Power Initiative
- The Future of Data, Oceans, and International Affairs | August 11, 2021 | 12:00 PM EST | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
Oceans are known as the final frontier. Currently, humanity knows less about oceans than about outer space. The oceans present potential solutions to some of our world’s most pressing problems such as climate change and food security, and are also an emergent strategic geopolitical battleground, with recent increased activity in the South China Sea. This GeoTech Hour will cover current oceanic data gaps, how and when these data gaps may be filled, and the implications of filling such data gaps. It will further touch upon the intersection between the oceans and international affairs, and how data is transforming this relationship.
Additionally, understanding both the deep ocean as well as coastal areas will be essential for our future ahead. Our panelists will also discuss the need to be prepared for when climate change starts to cause both extreme ocean-related weather events, such as severe hurricanes and typhoons – as well as “splash over events”, where ocean water mixes with land-based sources for potable freshwater.
Speakers:
Thammy Evans
Nonresident Senior Fellow, GeoTech Center, Atlantic Council
Horst Kremers
Secretary-General, Senior Engineer and Information Scientist, andInformation Systems Strategy Advisor, RIMMA CoE
Eric Rasmussen
CEO, Infinitum Humanitarian Systems (IHS)
Sahil Shah
Co-founder and Director, Sustainable Seaweed
David Bray, PhD
Director, GeoTech Center, Atlantic Council
- Hindsight Up Front: Afghanistan | Ambassador Mark Green in Conversation with H.R. McMaster | August 12, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
This event, part of Hindsight Up Front, the Wilson Center’s new Afghanistan initiative, features a discussion with H.R. McMaster, a national security adviser in the Trump administration and currently the Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. The conversation—moderated by Wilson Center President, Director, and CEO Mark Green—will assess nearly 20 years of U.S.-led war in Afghanistan, focus on the U.S. withdrawal and its implications, and consider options for future U.S. policy. The discussion will also explore immediate policy recommendations for the Biden administration, and what can be done to ensure that U.S. interests in Afghanistan continue to be advanced.
Speakers:
Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster
Ambassador Mark Green (moderator)
President, Director & CEO, Wilson Center
- Exploring Humanitarian Frameworks for Venezuela: Learning from Iraq’s UN Program Failure | August 11, 2021 | 2:00 PM EST | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
On August 13, the Venezuelan opposition and Maduro will meet in Mexico to kick off Norwegian-mediated negotiations. With political discussions soon to be underway, it’s simultaneously important to consider pathways for expanded and more effective humanitarian assistance. One historical experience that offers insight into what does not work and what could work: Iraq’s 1996 oil-for-food program with the United Nations.
What are the lessons learned from Iraq’s humanitarian program that are applicable to Venezuela? How can the role of the US and the international community in the Iraq experience be applied to present-day Venezuela? What other avenues exist to address Venezuela’s ongoing humanitarian crisis?
Speakers:
Abbas Kadhim
Director, Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council
Hagar Hajjar Chemali
Nonresident Senior Fellow, GeoEconomics Center, Atlantic Council; Former Director of Communications and Spokesperson, US Mission to the United Nations
Francisco Monaldi
Director and Fellow,Latin America Initiative, Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University
Patricia Ventura
Director,Regional Public Affairs and Government Relations, IPD Latin America
Tamara Herrera
Managing Director and Chief Economist, Síntesis Financiera
Jason Marczak (moderator)
Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
Diego Area (moderator)
Associate Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
- Reign of Terror: How the 9/11 Era Destabilized America and Produced Trump | August 13, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | CATO Institute | Register Here
For an entire generation, at home and abroad, the United States has waged a war on terror. Fighting it has produced neither peace nor victory, but it has transformed America. A politically divided country turned the war on terror into a cultural and then tribal struggle, first on the ideological fringes and ultimately expanding to open a door for today’s nationalist, exclusionary resurgence.
In Reign of Terror, journalist Spencer Ackerman argues that war on terror policies laid a foundation for American authoritarianism. In Ackerman’s account, Barack Obama’s failure to end the war on terror after the killing of Osama Bin Laden allowed cultural polarization to progress and set the groundwork for Donald Trump’s rise to power. As we approach the 20th anniversary of 9/11, please join us for a discussion of how the war on terror transformed the United States and the prospects for moving away from its divisive excesses.
Speakers:
Spencer Ackerman
Author, Contributing Editor, Daily Beast
Abigail R. Hall
Associate Professor in Economics, Bellarmine University
Erin M. Simpson
Former Co-Host, Bombshell podcast from War on the Rocks
Justin Logan
Senior Fellow, CATO Institute
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Stevenson’s army, August 9
– Global warming is accelerating, IPCC says.
– Interagency meeting on “Havana Syndrome” finds more questions than answers.
– Senate glides toward infrastructure passage.
– Biden names critic to oversee NordStream2 deal.
Book note: I’ve just read the policy sections of Carter Malkasian’s book,The American War in Afghanistan. [He also has detailed chapters on US military operations.] My reaction:
Who lost Afghanistan? is the wrong question. It assumes agency, when few complex events are monocausal, and it seeks to assign blame, where responsibilities are widely shared. Better to ask, why did things turn out that way?
In his wide-ranging and detailed study of the conflict in Afghanistan during 2001-2021, The American War in Afghanistan [Oxford University Press],Carter Malkasian finds many moments of missed opportunities for peace and many questionable decisions that made things worse. A Pashto-speaking civilian working in Afghanistan who later served as a special assistant to CJCS General Dunford, Malkasian knows both American and Taliban officials as well as the territory and culture of Afghanistan.
The war brought benefits to many Afghans, but it also built resistance to outsiders that has long been a feature of Afghan history. “Afghanistan cleaved into an urban democracy and a rural Islamic order,” Malkasian writes. He mentions the impact of government incompetence and corruption and the role of Pakistan support for the Taliban, but ultimately concludes that the Taliban fighters had a greater willingness to kill and to be killed than their opponents. [He notes that one Taliban leader proudly sent his own son as a suicide bomber.]
“[T]he Taliban stood for what it meant to be Afghan.…Tainted by its alignment with the United States, the [Kabul] government had a much weaker claim to these values and thus a much harder time motivating supporters to go to the same lengths.”
Malkasian documents many consequential choices made by the Americans:
– refusing to allow any power sharing with the Taliban;
– failing to do much to build up the Afghan army and police during 2001-5 [in part of course, because of the U.S. turn to fight a war in Iraq];
– U.S. military tactics that killed many civilians and alienated others;
– overly optimistic U.S. generals that their ways would work;
– insufficient U.S. air strikes in 2014-15;
– ruptured relations with the Karzai government;
– mishandled peace talks in 2019-20 that rewarded the Taliban while leaving many crucial issues unsettled.
Maybe we need to revise the adage and conclude that defeat, not victory, has 100 fathers in this case.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 6
The Senate is all tangled up this morning. No wonder several majority leaders have used the same metaphor for their job — “herding cats.” Leader Schumer is using the allure of an August recess to force action on the infrastructure package and a budget resolution that will allow a filibuster-free package of other measures. But since so much is done by unanimous consent, any Senator can slow things down. And the budget process leads to all-nighters. with meaningless vote-a-ramas. We’ll sort this out in class.
Politico says China is worried about US withdrawal from Afghanistan. But State reminds us that there is a great power venue for Afghan policy.
Australia is launching a reparations program for indigenous people.
Book note: I’ve just finished reading Alexander Vindman’s memoir, a chapter of which was published last week. It’s a typical military memoir — lessons learned at key points in his career, one of which was a willingness to “start over and start over again.” Besides the impeachment-related story, he describes normal NSC staffer work. Most troubling to me is his tale of punishment by his colleagues after his testimony and the ways the Army misled him and then failed to protect him from White House retaliation.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 3
– Politico has a revealing article on the Biden NSC staff in its afternoon newsletter. I’m not sure that link will work, so here’s the text.
SUPER-SIZING THE NSC: The National Security Council has significantly increased its staff in the first six months of the Biden administration, adding between 50 to 70 more staffers than under the Trump administration, two people familiar with the matter tell Daniel.
The NSC’s staff roster is now between 350 to 370 people, according to the sources, an increase of roughly 20 percent from what the NSC looked like in the summer and fall of the last year of the DONALD TRUMP administration, when it stood at around 300. The increase in staff is due to the addition or reconstitution of six new policy directorates focused on Biden administration priorities and the staffing growth of other directorates like the China and cyber directorates, whose head ANNE NEUBERGER also carries the title of deputy national security adviser. (There are now four deputy national security advisers.)
“We have needed to rebuild the scaffolding of how the national security policy process should work,” a senior administration official said. The numbers haven’t previously been reported.
— The NSC has reconstituted a pandemic response team after it was dissolved under the Trump administration before Covid. That directorate — one of the NSC’s larger teams — is built not just for Covid, but for a whole-of-government approach to prevent and handle future pandemics.
— ERIC GREEN, a career Foreign Service officer, has been made head of a new directorate primarily focused on Russia (affairs regarding Moscow were formerly part of the Europe team).
— National Security Adviser JAKE SULLIVAN created a new directorate focused on emerging technologies, led by TARUN CHHABRA, to coordinate policy around tech competitiveness such as addressing the semiconductor shortage and improving U.S. policy on issues like AI and quantum computing.
— The Biden White House has also reconstituted teams devoted to climate, democracy and development
Around half of the NSC staff under Biden is focused on enabling roles: such as security, IT and facilitating core NSC processes like policy paper coordination and secure video conference capabilities. The vast majority of the 350 to 370 staffers are detailees from other agencies, whose salaries continue to be paid by their home agency.
The current staffing size of the NSC, which includes people supporting the White House Situation Room, whose numbers grew in the Obama and Trump administrations, is roughly comparable to what it was during the Obama administration, although at times the overall NSC staff under Obama was higher than it is now. Trump and former National Security Adviser ROBERT O’BRIEN shrunk down the size of the NSC because of GOP concerns about a bloated bureaucracy but also after some of its current and former employees, like FIONA HILL, testified against Trump in his first impeachment.
“There were great staffers on the prior NSC, but you had a White House leadership who often didn’t want it to carry out its proper function,” the senior administration official said. “There were real gaps when we walked in. When you’re actually using the NSC and not making foreign policy by tweet, it’s gonna require a different footprint.”
In other news, here’s former dean Cohen’s reflection on Afghanistan.
He references a book by Carter Malkasian, which is explained and reviewed in Foreign Affairs.
Task & Purpose blames military eating disorders on the fitness tests.
Lawfare has good suggestions for a US offensive cyber policy.
But Defense One has a typical but misguided column urging a single department of cyber security. The centralize argument is attractive but can’t account for the many different needs and responsibilities. After all, are we really stronger with a single DHS?
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 2
– Israel, US & others blame Iran for drone strike on Israeli oil tanker. Iran denies it, but WINEP report explains the Israeli-Iranian shadow war.
– WaPo reports Taliban advances into Afghan cities. At Lawfare, CNA analyst explains the problems with maps of control in Afghanistan.
– Impeachment witness and SAIS DIA student Alexander Vindman describes The Call in chapter from forthcoming book.
-FP says Japan & Australia pushed US to adopt “Indo_Pacific” framing,
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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