Tag: Afghanistan
Stevenson’s army, July 13
– 31 state legislatures are considering measures to prevent use of their National Guard abroad unless Congress has declared a war.
– FP reports continuing unhappiness at State.
– Guardian describes worsening conditions in Afghanistan.
-Worth remembering: Military Times describes US military resistance to racial integration.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, July 11
I can’t figure out what’s happening in Haiti, but sure hope somebody can. WaPo says observers fear a “Somalia in the Caribbean.“
NYT summarizes the power struggle. There’s a poor country with a long history of poverty, political violence, corruption. No wonder the US doesn’t want to get involved militarily. WaPo has scary first-person story.
Nobody knows who hired the Colombian mercenaries who are alleged to be the assassins
of the president. I’m waiting for one of the China hawks to blame Beijing because Haiti is one of the few countries to recognize Taiwan and there was a break in at the embassy [I don’t think this is likely, but conspiracy theories don’t require evidence.]
Catching up with other items worth reading:
– How WH reporters are coping with Trump’s absence.
– Dan Drezner explains “lab leaks” from IR scholars. He draws on FP piece by former APSA Congressional Fellow Paul Musgrave.
– FP notes Chinese interest in bases across the Indo-Pacific.
– Since President Biden made a vigorous defense of his Afghanistan policy and even answered questions, I thought you should see the full transcript.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 30
WSJ says China wants to “tame” wolf warrior image.
Gen Miller warns of deteriorating situation in Afghanistan.
NYT says Kabul airport is key, explains role of Turkey.
Journalist says US defeat in Afghanistan was foreseeable.
The House voted Tuesday repeal both the 1991 Gulf war AUMF and the 1957 authorization for troops in the Middle East to fight communism.
The 1957 measure, part of the “Eisenhower Doctrine,” was the subject of my Harvard senior thesis, so attention must be paid.
SAIS prof Frank Gavin discusses the tensions between economic and security policies.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Ghani looks for partners and opportunities in the future
The withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan is soon to be a reality. The last troops will leave before September 11. There is still no political resolution of the country’s decades-old civil war. Fighting is escalting as foreign support declines. Experts have speculated that the Kabul regime led by president Ashraf Ghani may fall to the Taliban as soon as six months after the withdrawal is complete. In this context, the Arab Center Washington DC organized a conference on Looking towards Peace in Afghanistan after the US-NATO Withdrawal. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani gave a keynote speech June 22, before meeting with President Biden on three days later on the new context Afghanistan finds itself in and the opportunities that it affords.
The speakers were:
H.E. Dr. Mohammad Ashraf Ghani (keynote)
President of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Sultan Barakat (introduction)
Founding director,
Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies, Doha institute for Graduate Studies
A withdrawal foretold
The President focused first on the reality of the current situation. The US withdrawal is a game changer. “By ending the guessing game” surrounding the presence of US forces,” Biden forced all stakeholders to reassess their assumptions in the new context. This decision was no surprise to the Afghan government: “this is a transition for which, mentally, we have been ready.” President Ghani respects Biden’s decision and thanked the troops that helped Afghanistan so generously. Now, Afghanistan needs to be ready to establish new relations with the US and NATO. Far from abandoning Afghanistan, these allies will now become partners in assuring the prosperity and development of the country.
Focusing on opportunities, not risks
Ghani cited Nobel-prize winner Daniel Kahneman, who demonstrated that when strategic situations change people tend to focus on threats, rather than opportunities. For now, however, it is important to focus on opportunities. Afghans have been living with uncertainty for 43 years. They have grown accustomed to see potential despite this. The president explicitly reminded the academics present at the conference that they are speaking of a nation of 30 million. “The specter of Najibullah’s fall haunts us,” he admitted. The more people compare the current situation to that, as well as to the fall of Vietnam, the more they add to the anxiety and fears of the Afghan people. President Ghani does not believe that either of those situations is a good comparison.
“We do not ask the world for a sense of indebtedness, because that is not the reality. But we ask for understanding and we ask for partnership in a meaningful way.” There are two key processes to successfully shape the opportunities now presented:
- All stakeholders must acknowledge the strategic shift. All must frame and reframe their partnerships and resist the urge to pretend that the context hasn’t changed. The Kabul government immediately accepted and acknowledged that the withdrawal changes everything. Ghani called on foreign nations to stop hedging and waiting for events to unfold. Avoid atavistic behavior. Accept the changing context and look towards the new future of Afghanistan without applying historical ideas. “Join us to create a peaceful Afghanistan based on the noble quest for peace, cooperation, and prosperity.”
- Afghanistan needs to focus on new and changing partnerships. Ghani is pleased that, together with all of its core interlocutors (US, NATO) his government has immediately been able to change focus to the new chapter, which will bring peace, prosperity, and connectivity to Afghanistan. The region is crucial in this regard.
To secure the peace of Afghanistan by avoiding foreign competition over influence, “we are seriously considering the permanent neutrality of Afghanistan” so that all can be sure that Afghanistan will not be the theater of competition. “We are not looking for patrons, we are looking for partners.”
Challenging the Taliban to govern
The President turned last to the Taliban and the future of Afghan governance. “My colleagues and I have been very clear we are not interested in power, we are interested in principle and commitment. We are willing to bring elections forward to ensure orderly succession.” The Taliban movement is making a strategic mistake by continuing violence when political pathways are on the table in Doha. Why continue with violence when the context has changed and none of the assumptions of the past continue to be relevant? “A tragedy is in the making. This tragedy is a long and distractive civil war. The Taliban and the Taliban alone will be responsible for the scope of this tragedy.”
Ghani put two core questions to the Taliban:
- Will the Taliban acknowledge the centrality of an Afghan nation of common interest, or will they put their relations with their network and sponsors first, as they did in 2001? They must choose where their loyalties truly lie, and make this clear to the people of Afghanistan.
- What is the Taliban’s practical vision for Afghanistan? They can’t avoid explaining their proposed solutions for governance issues such as COVID, the return of refugees, women’s rights, education, water management, etcetera.
By focusing on governance and development despite continuous fighting, “we have changed the discourse in the world and the region to stop looking at us as just poor Afghanistan, but rather as potentially rich Afghanistan and a partner.”
Ghani concluded by emphasizing his personal commitment to Afghanistan’s prosperity: “Never will I leave this country, never will I abandon my people, and never will I stop urging peace and prosperity for all of us.” “If war is imposed on us, we will surprise the world as has been our habit and our destiny in the past.”
Watch the recording of the speech below:
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Stevenson’s army, June 26
Not good news. Tucker Carlson.Trump.Stephen Miller.
US will keep 650 [or more] troops in Afghanistan after “withdrawal.”
EU rejects Macron-Merkel call for summit with Putin
Biden-Ghani meeting
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 24
WSJ says new intelligence assessment says Afghan government could collapse as soon as 6 months after US withdrawal.
In testimony Wednesday, Gen. Milley was less pessimistic. Austin and Milley told a Senate hearing last week they believe there is a “medium” risk of terrorist groups regaining strength in Afghanistan, saying it could happen in two years. Presumably President Biden considers these risks acceptable. This reminds me of the Nixon & Kissinger view that they needed a “decent interval” between the end of US combat in Vietnam and the collapse of Saigon. Here’s some of the evidence: Wikipedia; the Nixon tapes; and Kissinger’s handwritten notes. Here’s another summary.
In other news, the debt ceiling looms with no clear plan.
Earmarks are popular.
And SAIS prof Vali Nasr says an Iran deal is possible.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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