Tag: Afghanistan
Watch this space: 10 challenges Biden wishes he didn’t have
President Biden is preoccupied with domestic issues: the economy, COVID-19, race and inequality. But of course foreign policy waits for no president.
The current picture is gloomy:
- Russia has been threatening renewed hostilities against Ukraine. Moscow is claiming it is all Kiev’s faulty, but I suspect Putin is getting nervous about improved performance of the Ukrainian Army. Perhaps he thinks it will be easier and less costly to up the ante now. Besides a new offensive would distract from his domestic problems, including that pesky political prisoner and hunger striker Alexei Navalny.
- Iran and Israel are making it difficult for the US to get back into the nuclear deal. Israel has somehow crashed the electrical supply to Iran’s uranium enrichment facility at Natanz. Tehran has amped up the IRGC/Supeme Leader criticism of President Rouhani, making it harder for him to ease conditions for Washington’s return to the nuclear deal. A vigorous Iranian reaction to the Israeli sabotage would make the Americans hesitate.
- Peace talks between Afghanistan and the Taliban for a transitional power-sharing government are not going well. How could they? The Taliban want an Afghanistan in which President Ghani would have no place. Ghani wants an Afghanistan in which the Taliban would have no place. Powersharing requires a minimum of mutual tolerance that appears lacking.
- North Korea is renewing its missile and nuclear threats. President Trump pretty much poisoned the diplomatic well with Pyongyang by meeting three times with Kim Jong-un without reaching a serious agreement. Kim seems to have decided he can manage without one, so long as his nuclear weapons and missiles threaten South Korea, Japan, and even the continental United States.
- China is menacing Taiwan. I doubt Beijing wants to face the kind of military defense and popular resistance an invasion would entail, but ratcheting up the threat forces Taipei to divert resources and puts an additional issue on the negotiating table with Washington, which doesn’t want to have to come to Taipei’s defense.
- Syria’s Assad is consolidating control and preparing for further pushes into Idlib or the northeast. While unquestionably stretched thin militarily and economically, Damascus no longer faces any clear and present threat to Assad’s hold on power. He hasn’t really won, but the relatively liberal opposition has definitely lost, both to him and to Islamist extremists.
- Central Americans are challenging American capacity to manage its southern border. The increase of asylum seekers, especially children, presents a quandary to the Biden Administration: shut them out as President Trump did, or let them in and suffer the domestic political consequences. Biden has put Vice President Harris in charge, but it will be some time before she can resurrect processing of asylum seekers in their home countries and also get the kind of aid flowing to them that will cut back on the economic motives for migration.
- The Houthis aren’t playing nice. America’s cut in military and intelligence support for Saudi Arabia and the UAE is giving their Yemeni adversaries a chance to advance on the last remaining major population center in the north still nominally held by President Hadi’s shambolic government. If the Houthis take Marib, the consequences will be catastrophic.
- Addis Ababa isn’t either. Africa’s second most populous country, Ethiopia, has gone to war against its own Tigray region, which had defied Addis’ authority on control of the military and holding elections. The Americans want Addis to ease up and allow humanitarian assistance and media in. Ethiopia’s reforming Prime Minister Ahmed Abiy is playing rope-a-dope with the Americans and keeping up the pressure on the Tigrayans.
- You haven’t heard much about it lately, but nothing good is happening in Venezuela, where President Maduro has survived efforts to oust him and now is enjoying one of what must be at least 9 lives.
Biden deserves a lot of credit for what he is doing domestically, and he is the best versed president on foreign affairs in decades. But the international pressures are building. It is only a matter of time before one or more of these ten issues, or a half dozen others, climb to the top of his to-do list. None of them are going to be easy to handle. Watch this space.
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When long shots are worth taking, in soccer and foreign policy
The return to normal that started on January 20 is now palpable. America is administering more than 3 million COVID-19 shots per day, the economy is revving up, our days are not devoted to dealing with Donald Trump’s latest foolishness. Some things are noticeably better than before. The trial of the policeman who killed George Floyd in Minneapolis has featured testimony for the prosecution from his colleagues, including the police chief. That has rarely happened in the past. A Democratic-controlled Congress has passed a massive economic stimulus bill and is proposing to do more focused on infrastructure and health care. Republicans are fighting back by trying to limit voting state-by-state, most notably in Georgia and Arizona , but they are getting substantial backlash from the business community. Abusing minorities is no longer a winning market strategy.
In foreign affairs there is also a return to normalcy: the Administration is trying to negotiate its way back into the Iran nuclear deal (aka Joint Comprehensive Plan of Actiton or JCPOA) and appears to have decided not to withdraw US troops completely from Afghanistan by May 1, as the Trump Administration had agreed to do. Secretary of State Blinken has reaffirmed American commitment to NATO and the Administration has met with Asian Pacific allies Japan and South Korea as well as India. Biden has been explicitly critical of China’s treatment of its Uyghur population, a Turkic Muslim minority millions of whom have been put into reeducation camps. Trump had signaled no objection and even approval of this outrage. Biden has also signaled renewed support for a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians, but without reversing Trump’s relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem or for now withdrawing Trump’s recognition of Israeli annexation of the Golan Heights.
There are other areas of continuity between Trump and Biden on foreign policy. Trump’s tariffs on China are still in place, apparently as an incentive for Beijing to agree to beef up its respect for foreign intellectual property. Biden is continuing the Trump practice of more open engagement with Taiwan’s officials. So far, Biden, like Trump, has done nothing to respond to human rights violations by friends like Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
A return to normal does not however guarantee success. The two biggest Biden foreign policy initiatives so far face long odds.
America was clearly better off with the JCPOA than without it. Return to the agreement will require not only complex choreography with Tehran but also with the US Congress, where even some Democrats are hardline. The US will need to provide sanctions relief while Iran will need to return its nuclear program to the status quo ante. Both will be difficult. Parsing which sanctions are “nuclear” and which were levied because of human rights and terrorism is not going to be easy. Nor will it be easy for Iran to give up the more advanced enrichment technology it has acquired. In both countries, domestic resistance will make the process more difficult, as will Iran’s June election.
Withdrawal from Afghanistan depends on an agreement between the Taliban and President Ghani, both of whom are notably consistent in pursuing maximalist goals. For now, the Taliban appear to have the advantage on the battlefield, but Ghani is not giving in to the American suggestion of a power-sharing government with some sort of Taliban participation. How can he? He advocates far more democratic, far less religious, far more inclusive, and far more normal governance than the Taliban do. They have no interest in a pluralist polity with equal rights for women and minorities. If there is no agreement, the Americans can of course still withdraw, but most of the smart money is betting that the consequence will be a Taliban takeover or, worse, a multi-faceted civil war. The experts are pessimistic. View this discussion Monday from the Middle East Institute:
That said, the experts are sometimes wrong. Long shots are worth taking when they are not costly and there is little or no alternative. That score against Spain is a fine example.
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Stevenson’s army, April 5
– Something’s happening in Jordan. Not sure what.
– NYT rerports secret talks with Taliban.
– While Afghan president has own peace plan.
-CNN reports Russian buildup in Arctic.
– WaPo has different perspective on US economy
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 31
-Blinken broadens human rights categories.
-But keeps some of Trump’s Taiwan moves.
– Human rights report released. The text is here.
– NYT says the Taliban believe they’ve won.
– Top military quit in Brazil.
-Politico says CISA is in bad shape.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | March 29 – April 2, 2021
Peace Picks | March 29 – April 2, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Ready for Reform? Upholding the Rule of Law in Ukraine | March 29, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic trajectory continues to face two immediate threats: vested interests and malign influence from the Kremlin. President Zelenskyy has recently taken important steps to fight back against these corrupt forces, shutting down Kremlin-backed Member of Parliament Viktor Medvedchuk’s pro-Russian TV channels and vowing to pursue criminal charges against other oligarchs, including Ihor Kolomoisky. Yet 2020 was a year of walking back from aspects of the post-Maidan anti-corruption program. Questions remain about Zelenskyy’s willingness to initiate broad-based reforms, which will require a coordinated, systemic approach to be successful in the long-term.
Is Zelenskyy ready to restart the reforms he began in 2019? How can Ukraine’s leading reformers work together to create a more just Ukraine?
Daniel Bilak,
Senior Counsel, Kinstellar
Sergii Ionushas,
Deputy Chair of the Verkhovna Rada’s Law Enforcement Committee
Oleksandr Novikov
Chair of the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption
Anastasia Radina,
Chair of the Verkhovna Rada’s Anti-Corruption Committee,
Ruslan Ryaboshapka,
Former Prosecutor General of Ukraine, and
Artem Sytnyk,
Director of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine
Melinda Haring (Moderator)
Deputy Director of the Eurasia Center
2. A Strategic Proxy Threat: Iran’s Transnational Network | March 29, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Iran’s influence throughout the Middle East has grown dramatically in the past decade, in large part due to its expanding regional network of militias and their assertion of influence in unstable environments. Through the IRGC’s Quds Force and Iranian allies such as Lebanese Hezbollah, the Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs) in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen, Iran’s pursuit of regional hegemony through the removal of Western influence threatens stability.
What are the main challenges and threats posed by Iran’s regional network? How best should they be dealt with? Can diplomacy remove the incentive for Iranian proxy aggression? How must the United States and the wider international community respond to Iran’s direct and proxy involvement in conflicts across the Middle East?
Speakers:
Nadwa Al-Dawsari
Non Resident Scholar, Middle East Institute
Hanin Ghaddar
Friedmann Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Michael Knights
Jill and Jay Bernstein Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Charles Lister, (Moderator)
Senior Fellow and Director, Syria and Countering Terrorism and Extremism Programs, Middle East Institut
3. Nonviolent Action and Civil War Peace Processes | March 30, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Civilians are often assumed to be victims or passive agents in civil war. However, civil society actors and nonviolent movements are far more active than is often acknowledged and they have used a vast array of nonviolent action tactics to foster peace — from forming local peace communities to organizing protests and strikes to demanding warring parties come to the negotiating table. Civil society actors have also participated in negotiation processes, either as negotiation delegations themselves or as observers, and have played active roles in the monitoring and implementation stages of peace processes as well. But what civilian nonviolent action strategies are effective in promoting peaceful conflict resolution in civil war?
Speakers:
Jacob Bul Bior
Cofounder and Media Coordinator, Anataban Arts Initiative
Luke Abbs
Researcher, BLG Data Research Centre, University of Essex
Esra Cuhadar
Senior Expert, Dialogue and Peace Processes, U.S. Institute of Peace
Marina Petrova
Post-Doctoral Research Fellow, UniversitĂ Bocconi
Waheed Zaheer
Journalist and Peacebuilding Trainer
Jonathan Pinckney, (Moderator)
Senior Researcher, Nonviolent Action, U.S. Institute of Peace
4. Equity, Violence and the Law: Policing Lessons for Europe and the United States | March 30, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here
The deaths of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, Ahmaud Arbery and other individuals energized the Black Lives Matter movement and sparked calls for police reforms not only in the United States, but in Europe and around the world. With the trial of former police officer Derek Chauvin scheduled to begin on March 29, it is time to assess the impact of such efforts over the past year. While some U.S. states banned chokeholds or explored community-centered policing models, the use of deadly force by police in America is 10 to 20 times higher than in Europe. Still, policy brutality is very real for people of color in Europe.
How do U.S. and European approaches to safety and policing differ? What can we learn from each other? Who needs to be at the table to make sure police are adequately equipped to respond? Join us for a transatlantic discussion on police reforms, how to re-imagine public safety and assure policing equity for all citizens.
Speakers:
Artika R. Tyner
Professor and Director of the Center on Race, Leadership and Social Justice, University of St. Thomas
Kimmo Kimberg
Director of the Police University College, Finland
Ojeaku Nwabuzo
Senior Research Officer, European Network Against Racism
Teresa Eder (Moderator)
Program Associate, Global Europe Program
5. Sanctions and Tools of Economic Statecraft: Getting Allies’ Act Together | March 30, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | German Marshall Fund| Register Here
The Biden administration has shown itself ready and willing to use sanctions as a tool of foreign policy, already having enacted a robust package of sanctions against Russia for its treatment of Alexei Navalny. The EU, for its part, recently passed a new human rights sanctions regime with which it hopes to better punish countries for human rights abuses. In this Transatlantic Tuesday, we will discuss how these developments are likely to impact U.S. and European sanctions policy going forward, as well as the prospects for allied coordination of sanctions. #TransatlanticTuesdays
Speakers:
Daniel Fried
Former US Ambassador to Poland, 1997-2000 and Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow, Atlantic Council
Markus Ziener
Professor of Journalism at the University of Applied Sciences Berlin (HMKW), Incoming Helmut Schmidt Fellow, The German Marshall Fund of the United States & Zeit-Stiftung Ebelin und Gerd Bucerius
6. Yemen’s War: Current Developments and Regional Dynamics | March 30, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | Chatham House| Register Here
In the last week of March 2015, Saudi Arabia announced that a coalition of twelve countries will begin Operation Decisive Storm in Yemen, a nation troubled by civil war and severe humanitarian crisis.
The Saudi-led intervention aimed at retaliating against the Shia Houthi rebels and restoring the exiled international government of Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. Six years later, regional and international dynamics have changed, and Yemen has become even more fragmented with Yemeni civilians paying the heaviest price as they find themselves in what the UN has called the worst humanitarian crisis in the world.
Within the Gulf, reconciliation between GCC countries is picking up after more than three years of diplomatic crisis between Qatar and a number of regional countries led by Saudi Arabia. In addition, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi’s main ally in the Yemen war, has withdrawn from the country.
In the United States, the new Biden administration has ended its military support for offensive operations by Saudi-led allies in Yemen including a freeze of arms sales.
In this webinar, organized by the Chatham House Middle East Programme, speakers will reflect on the last six years of war in Yemen and discuss prospects for peace.
• How has the conflict changed since 2015?
• What does the UAE military withdrawal from Yemen mean for the different parties involved?
• Is the UN framework for peace process still viable?
• How have the wider dynamics in the Gulf and the Middle East impacted the Yemen war, and vice versa?
• What is Iran’s end game in Yemen? And how has the regional order changed since 2015?
Speakers:
Farea Al-Muslimi, Chairman and Co-founder, Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies; Associate Fellow, MENA Programme, Chatham House
Mohammed Alyahya, Editor in Chief, Al Arabiya English
Sanam Vakil, Deputy Director and Senior Research Fellow, MENA Programme Chatham House
Moderator: Lina Khatib, Director, MENA Programme, Chatham House.
7. Analyzing Israel’s Fourth Election: Will there be a Fifth? | March 30, 2021 | 2:00 PM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace| Register Here
On March 23, for the fourth time in a little over two years, Israelis went to the polls to choose their next government. All votes have yet to be counted, but results so far suggest continued stalemate and the possibility of a fifth election.
Please join us as Daniel C. Kurtzer, Natan Sachs, and Dahlia Scheindlin sit down with Aaron David Miller to analyze the results, unpack the coalition negotiations to follow, and interpret the implications for Israel, the Middle East, and relations with the United States.
Speakers:
Daniel C. Kurtzer
Professor of Middle East Studies, Princeton University School of Public and International Affairs
Natan Sachs
Director, Brookings Institution Center for Middle East Policy
Dahlia Scheindlin
Strategic Consultant and Researcher; Fellow, Century
Aaron David Miller (Moderator)
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
8. Women of the Revolution: A Vision for Post-War Yemen | March 31, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here
This event features some of the brightest female stars in Yemeni diasporic society. These women participated in Yemen’s revolution and have since risen to prominence in advocacy organizations, academia, and journalism. Each has been a vocal advocate for change in Yemen and has been on the forefront of considering possibilities for the country’s political future that go beyond the short-term solutions to the current conflict. They will provide a vision of post-war Yemen – how will the country be reconstituted, and what will its future look like? What can be done economically and socially to create a more stable and prosperous country?
Rather than seeing through the eyes of foreign pundits or Yemeni men commenting on events at home from abroad, this panel will offer the perspectives of Yemen’s women who are the defenders and peacemakers of their homeland.
Speakers:
Afrah Nasser
Researcher, Human Rights Watch
Summer Nasser
CEO, Yemen Aid
Maha Awadh
Found and Director, Wogood Foundation for Human Security
Asher Orkaby
Fellow, Research Scholar, Transregional Institute, Princeton University
Merissa Khurma,
Program Director, Middle East Program, Wilson Center
Amat Alsoswa (Moderator)
Founder, Yemeni National Women’s Committee
9. Who’s Voices Count on Afghanistan? The Politics of Knowledge Production | April 1, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Over the last two decades, Afghanistan has rebuilt its academic and expert capability, with an increasingly vibrant research and academic community who are at the frontlines of the challenges and opportunities the country is grappling with. Yet these voices and their ideas are often sidelined, dismissed, and rarely at the center of debates on Afghanistan. The political nature of knowledge production and how it shapes narratives, understandings, processes, and outcomes is becoming increasingly apparent in the Afghan context.
The soft power of experts working in and on these conflict spaces is considerable. Experts can shape policies and practices, structure whose ideas and voices are suppressed or promoted, and can even disrupt or determine resource flows for elites, civil society, and communities. This makes it imperative that we recognize how research and policy analysis involves making ethical and political choices about whose knowledge counts and whose voices are heard.
Speakers:
Orzala Nemat
Director
Political Ethnographer and Veteran Researcher on Afghanistan
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit
Bashir Safi
Former Senior Adviser
CT, CVE, and Propaganda in Conflict Zone
Afghan National Security Council
Mariam Safi
Co-Director
Women, Peace, and Security, and Peace Processes
The Afghanistan Mechanism for Inclusive Peace
Obaid Ali
Co-Director
Political Analyst and Veteran Researcher on Afghanistan
Afghanistan Analysts Network
Sahar Halaimzai (Introductory Remarks)
Non-resident senior fellow
Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center
Mustka Dastageer (Moderator)
Lecturer
Anti-Corruption Expert
American University of Afghanistan
10. Improving Civilian Protection in Conflict | April 1, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
The United States has been involved in armed conflict continuously for the past two decades. While the U.S. military has invested time and effort in processes and technologies for avoiding collateral damage on the battlefield, the larger challenge of protecting civilians during operations has proved to be a recurring challenge. Despite substantial efforts in multiple campaigns, the protection of civilians remains an area for improvement, including in efforts to reduce civilian casualties, measuring the impact to civilians in military operations, and in providing compensation for such injuries.
Please join the CSIS Humanitarian Agenda for a discussion with Sarah Holewinski, Washington Director of Human Rights Watch, and Larry Lewis, Vice President and Director of the Center for Autonomy and Artificial Intelligence at the Center for Naval Analyses. The panel will explore the history of civilian protection in U.S. military operations, the nature of and reasons for recurring challenges, and steps the Biden administration can take to improve policy and practice on this crucial humanitarian mandate.
Speakers:
Sarah Holewinski
Washington Director, Human Rights Watch
Larry Lewis
Director, Center for Autonomous and Artificial Intelligence, CNA
Jacob Kurtzer
Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda
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Stevenson’s army, March 27
– NYT investigates how North Korea gets oil.
-Intelligence report on Taliban is now part of Afghan troop debate.
– Iran and China sign long term economic deal.
-It may not be good press, but it’s good Constitutional law: you can’t arrest a member speeding away from the Capitol.
-North Korea wants to expand its nuclear program, WSJ says.
– Biden nominates 2 careerists to Assistant Secretary of State positions.
– FT says US officials worried about attack on Taiwan.
-FP has several weekly newsletters on different regions.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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