Tag: Afghanistan
Stevenson’s army, March 25
– In FT, Edward Luce notes much less support for US and Ukraine outside Europe.
– Watch this amazing video and audio report by NYT on Russian operations early in the war.
– WSJ says Biden won’t adopt “sole purpose” terminology for nukes.
– Leaked document says China close to deal to put troops in Solomon Islands.
– BBC says Russian news dropped “victory” report.
– Elliot Ackerman talks to foreign fighters in Ukraine.
– NYT says US intelligence was wrong about Afghan and Ukraine wars.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 23
– CNA analyst is more pessimistic about Ukraine than Eliot Cohen’s piece yesterday.
– WaPo notes Russia’s increased use of air power.
-WSJ notes Ukraine’s guerrilla tactics.
– NYT notes convergence of US far-right and Russian talking points.
– NBC says Biden may increase US troop levels in Europe.
– Politico says Estonia feels Russian propaganda.
– Taliban bars girls from high schools.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Geopolitics will take its revenge
One thing is clear this morning: Russian President Putin has chosen war as an instrument of national policy. He has been unequivocal: Ukraine is not a real state, it should not be allowed to choose its own allies, and Russian security interests require that it be under Moscow’s control. The blah-blah about genocide against Russian speakers is nonsense. There is no evidence for it. Putin is attacking Ukraine today because he wants to and can.
Fog of war means we need to await the outcome
Ukraine will be defending itself, without allies. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, and other cities have been attacked. Civilians are streaming west to areas they hope will be relatively peaceful. It is hard to miss the analogy to Hitler’s March 1938 Anschluss against Austria, which Fiona Hill noted yesterday on NPR. Most Ukrainians will not welcome the Russians, but their army is far weaker than Russia’s. If the outcome the balance of forces decides the outcome, it will be in Moscow’s favor.
But will to fight and persistence are important factors as well. We just don’t know how strongly the Ukrainians will resist and how long that resistance will last. Putin has signaled that his forces will be brutal, but Ukrainians in the past have proven remarkably resilient, including against the Soviet-perpetrated Holodomor famine that Stalin imposed in the early 1930s. Some of the people fighting now will be descendants of Ukrainians who resisted collectivization then.
We are still in the fog of war and will need to wait to learn the outcome.
Western sanctions are vigorous but won’t have immediate effect
Europe, the UK, and the US are reacting with strong sanctions and in a far more unified way than many had expected just a few weeks ago. Russian banks, oligarchs, and the state will be cut off from Western funding. The Nordstream 2 pipeline to carry natural as from Russia to Germany is suspended if not defunct. The West will be blocking advanced technology from transfer to Moscow.
None of this will change Putin’s mind. He has already taken sanctions into account. Rarely do economic sanctions quickly change any autocrat’s mind about security issues. It is only when you negotiate relief from sanctions, not when you impose them, that you have any real hope of getting what you want. We are witnessing that in the Iran deal negotiations right now.
The world should be on alert
Russia’s irredentist war on Ukraine should alert everyone worldwide to the possibility other autocrats will seek to enlarge their borders, citing cultural affinity, historic claims, or humanitarian goals. In the post-Soviet space, that means all the former republics, but it also extends to the Balkans. There Kosovo as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina need worry about Serb revanchism.
Moscow could also be thinking about going beyond Ukraine, if this initial invasion is successful. The Baltic members of NATO understand this perfectly well and did their best to arm Ukraine against Russia. They are also welcoming additional American and other NATO forces.
Farther afield, Taiwan needs to worry about China, whose claim to sovereignty over the island is stronger than Russia’s claims against Ukraine. Pakistan should worry about its Durrand Line border with Afghanistan, which even the American-supported governments in Kabul contested. India needs to worry about its longstanding border dispute with China. There are dozens of other border disputes in Asia that could be aggravated if one country or another decides to settle them by force.
The revenge of geopolitics
A geopolitical world in which military power decides issues of territorial control may eventually reach some sort of equilibrium, but it could take a long time. If things go well for Russia, it may be decades before the world settles down. But if things go well for Ukraine, the Russian Federation will be in big trouble. Its people won’t appreciate defeat and will try to change their government. Its many minorities will seek their own territorial control.
Geopolitics will take its revenge, one way or the other.
PS: The criminal falsely citing law:
The voice of reason, to which Putin will not listen:
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Stevenson’s army, February 14
– The administration has a formal Indo-Pacific Strategy, just released.
– Dan Drezner doesn’t like the administration’s seizure of Afghan government funds.
-The Hill sees problems if GOP tries to block a new Iran nuclear deal.
– WaPo readers found even more slave owners among members of Congress.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 12
– Both US & Russia are withdrawing personnel from their Kyiv embassies. Biden & Putin are supposed to talk today. Politico says Biden told foreign leaders Feb 16 looks like invasion day.
– NYT says US disclosed possible Russian moves as part of info ops.
– Fred Kaplan sees some Russian military opposition to Putin.
-WSJ reports US moves to block Chinese base in Africa.
– In a Solomonic move, Biden splits frozen Afghan money, half to humanitarian relief, half to 9/11 victims’ families.
-I agree with Tim Noah’s article, Washington is not a swamp.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 11
– WaPo has ticktock on ISIS leader raid.
– Military complains of distracting calls from WH & Congress on behalf of individuals seeking to flee Afghanistan.
– NYT has good background on Canadian trucker protests.
– Politico China newsletter tells how China is a political issue in coming elections
– David Ignatius complains about political infighting in Ukraine.
– FP says BJP is pushing hijab ban for votes in India.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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