Tag: Afghanistan
Stevenson’s army, December 27
– The Guardian says US & Japan are coordinating on Taiwan.
– Russia will have talks with US & NATO in January.
– WSJ reports how Taliban “outwitted and outwaited” US.
– Just Security has long report on military activity last January 6.
– NYT reviews book challenging views on WWII. I also found the book persuasive. My take is here.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 19
– The new NDAA forbids dishonorable discharges for military personnel who refuse to get vaccinations.
– 3 retired general warn of insurrection in 2024.
-Some Israeli officials doubt ability to strike Iran.
– Major NYT review of airstrike investigations finds undercounts of civilian casualties and reluctance to blame US.
– WaPo says US greatly expanded air attacks in Afghanistan in mid-2021.
From the entrepreneurial NatSecDaily:
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — AMERICANS WARY OF GOING TO WAR OVER UKRAINE: A new YouGov poll commissioned by the pro-restraint Charles Koch Institute found that there are more Americans skeptical of going to war with Russia than those who are gung-ho.
In response to the question “If Ukraine is invaded again by Russia, do you favor or oppose the US going to war with Russia to protect Ukraine’s territorial integrity?” 28 percent of respondents said they “strongly oppose” the idea while another 20 percent said they “somewhat oppose” it. By contrast, only 9 percent said they “strongly favor” going to war with Russia and 18 percent said they “somewhat favor” the notion. Meanwhile, 24 percent of the 1,000 internet-using Americans surveyed said they “don’t know.”
That’s not an outright repudiation of the idea of going to war to defend Ukraine from Moscow’s forces, but this one poll indicates a majority of people are at least skeptical.
Importantly, Biden to date has ruled out sending U.S. troops to Ukraine to fight the Russians, were they to invade.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 16
–Congress passed an NDAA for the 61st year in a row, despite never letting it be debated and amended in the Senate. SASC summary is here. Bill text is here. [2,120 pages!]The 670 page statement of managers [explaining provisions and why changed or dropped] is here.
– WSJ has interesting piece on how President Xi micromanages.
–China pressures and punishes Lithuania.
– Karzai says he invited Taliban into Kabul.
-Menendez added State Authorization bill as part of NDAA.
– Congress revised Pacific Deterrence Initiative in NDAA.
-Aussie analyst changes mind on AUKUS.
Worth considering: Space Force needs different personnel system.WOTR author notes good and bad ways for military to dissent. More from Tom Edsall on threats to democracy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 10
-New Yorker has a long article on the Afghan collapse based on newly obtained documents.
– The House approved a big bill trying to reduce presidential powers, including some measures opposed by Biden administration.
– Israel want US refueling in case of attacks on Iran.
– Lawfare explains how new Senate-confirmed cyber director has more real power than unconfirmed advisors [like National Security Adviser].
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Democracy on the defensive, but not lost yet
I read the Biden/Putin phone call on Tuesday and the Summit of Democracies differently from many others. The former was a clear even if not conclusive win for the US. The latter is more equivocal.
President Putin went into the phone call having mounted most of an invasion force and demanding a binding legal prohibition on Ukraine joining NATO. He came out accepting an official-level dialogue with Washington on European security. That is a win for Biden, even if the invasion force remains in place for now. Moscow will continue at the dialogue to demand a commitment that Ukraine not join NATO, but the Americans won’t yield on that.
Ironically, the best guarantee that Kiev won’t join NATO lies in the current NATO members, few of whom are prepared to take on an obligation to defend Ukraine from Russian aggression. Redoubling the irony: Putin’s mounting of an invasion force has convinced any loyal Ukrainian that NATO membership is highly desirable. That makes two own goals for Putin: he has spent a fortune on an invasion force that was unnecessary and counterproductive.
The Summit of Democracies convening remotely today is harder to judge. It is one more sign of what we already know: democracy is under attack both in the US and in many places abroad. The Republican campaign against the validity of the 2020 US election and Republican legislation limiting the franchise in many states have cast doubt on whether the US can survive as a democracy. Events in Myanmar, Sudan, Belarus, Ethiopia, Afghanistan, and other places have cast more than doubts. Democracy in all those places has suffered severe setbacks in the past year. Not to mention Russia, Serbia, Hungary, Brazil, and other countries that are suffering longer-term erosion of at least semi-democratic institutions and processes. Not to mention the survival of long-standing authoritarian regimes in Syria, Jordan, the Gulf, China, Thailand, and Vietnam.
What good can the Summit of Democracies do? It is difficult to judge. I suppose preparations for it in countries invited and reactions to it in countries not invited may marginally increase pressure for upholding democratic values. Certainly Washington is well aware of its own limitations as a leader of the democratic world and convener of the Summit. The Biden Administration isn’t doing all it might, as it has hesitated to eliminate the anti-democratic filibuster in order to pass Federal voting rights legislation, but it is prosecuting January 6 rioters and suing states that limit voting rights in Federal court.
There is a possibility that some would-be authoritarians in other places will find themselves pressured and even on the ropes, but the overall trend appears to be in their direction. Authoritarians have learned how to weather less draconian political environments, as totalitarian control has become far more difficult due to modern communications and social media. They have also learned how to help each other survive, in order to avoid any domino effects, especially among neighbors. The pendulum has swung in the authoritarian direction, due in part to the corona virus epidemic and the consequent economic slowdown as well as the rallying cries of ethnic/sectarian/linguistic/racial nationalists.
The pendulum can also swing in the other direction, but the Summit looks incapable of making that happen. A successful Russian invasion of Ukraine, or US agreement to block Ukraine from NATO membership, would make things much worse than they already are. Democracy is on the defensive, but not lost yet.
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Stevenson’s army, November 28
– WSJ says new technologies make it hard to operate spies.
– NYT details cyberwar between Iran and Israel.
– WSJ reveals Taliban had sleeper cells in Afghan cities.
– The Hill says lobbyists hope to change infrastructure law as implementation rules are written.
– At FP, Paul Musgrave explains how Pepsi helped the Soviet navy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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