Tag: Africa

Peace Picks | March 15 – March 19, 2021

Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.

  1. Free to Leave? Independent Media in Russia | March 15, 2021 |  9:30 AM ET | Atlantic Council| Register Here

Independent media in Russia have long faced harassment and intimidation from the Kremlin. Indeed, when Vladimir Putin first rose to the Russian presidency in 2000, he quickly stifled the country’s large national broadcasters, shuttered commercial media outlets, and began a campaign to force domestic affiliates to break ties with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) Russian Service. Even with the advent and now ubiquity of the internet, the Kremlin has moved to block online sites that it deems “undesirable,” or detrimental to its grip on power. Putin and his cronies have even resorted to the murder of prominent journalists.

International outlets have sometimes been spared the harsh treatment that Russian news sources have received. But Putin is now dialing the pressure up on foreign media companies, too. Russian authorities have recently used the country’s “foreign agent” law to fine and effectively ban Western news outlets that don’t support the Kremlin propaganda line. Since January 2021, Russia’s media regulator has issued hundreds of violations that will result in nearly $1 million in fines for RFE/RL for “non-compliance” with the law—more fines are on the way.

Investigative journalism in Russia has been more successful of late, led by Alexei Navalny’s YouTube videos exposing Kremlin corruption and uncovering the operations of the FSB’s brazen death squads. But the triumphs of these investigations speak more to the skill of Navalny and his team than an open media environment. Navalny now sits in prison, Russian propaganda continues to surge, and independent news outlets are more threatened than ever.

The Kremlin’s multi-faceted pressure campaign deprives Russian society of quality news and information, making it more difficult for Russians to pursue the fundamental freedoms they deserve.

Can independent media survive under such intense pressure from the Kremlin? What can the West do to support a vibrant free press in Russia?

Speakers:

Jamie Fly

President and CEO of RFE/RL

Kiryl Sukhotski

Regional director for Europe and TV production at RFE/RL, 

Maria Lipman

Senior Associate at the PONARS Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies at George Washington University

Dylan Myles-Primakoff

Nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, join to discuss the Russian media landscape and the challenges ahead. 

Melinda Haring (Moderator)

Deputy Director of the Eurasia Center

2. Minsk II and the Donbas Conflict: Six Years Later | March 15, 2021 |  10:00 AM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here

This February marks six years since the Minsk 2 Protocol was agreed upon by the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany in order to work toward ending the conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas region. Since then, the implementation of Minsk 2 by the OSCE-led Trilateral Contact Group has been difficult, with some moments of stabilization but an overall failure to move toward the conflict resolution phase. Additionally, recent ceasefire violations are evidence that the situation is worsening. In this panel, experts will discuss what is happening on the Donbas frontline today, assess the implementation of Minsk 2, and share major achievements and shortcomings on the development of the situation in the region.

Speakers:

Hannah Shelest

Director of Security, Programmes, Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”; Editor-in-Chief, UA: Ukraine Analytica

Brian Milakovsky

Independent Analyst

Mykhailo Minakov

Senior Advisor; Editor-in-Chief, Focus Ukraine Blog

William E Pomeranz (Moderator)

Deputy Director, Kennan Institute

3. MEI: Syria Annual Conference: The Geopolitics of Syria’s Crisis | March 16, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here

The Middle East Institute’s Syria Program is pleased to host its annual Syria Policy Conference, featuring three panels of Syrian figures and leading experts. Marking the ten year anniversary of the 2011 uprising, this inaugural conference is especially poignant, with a path towards stability and justice still some way away. What are the lessons learned from the past decade and what does the future hold? What avenues remain open for progress on the diplomatic front; what options are available to ameliorate the worsening humanitarian situation; what role will Syrians from all backgrounds play in determining what comes next? These are many more questions will be the subject of the conference agenda below.

Aleksandr Aksenenok
Vice President, Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC); Former Ambassador to Syria


Karim Sadjadpour
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace & Adjunct Professor, Georgetown University


Andrew Tabler 
Martin J. Gross Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy; former Senior Advisor, U.S. State Department


Gonul Tol 
Director, Turkey Program, Middle East Institute


Liz Sly (Moderator)
Beirut Bureau Chief, Washington Post

4. The State of Peacebuilding in Africa: Lessons Learned for Policy Makers and Practitioners | March 16, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here

Please join the Wilson Center Africa Program for the launch of The State of Peacebuilding in Africa: Lessons Learned for Policymakers and Practitioners, edited by Dr. Terence McNamee and Dr. Monde Muyangwa, on Tuesday, March 16, 2021, from 9:00-10:45 AM Eastern Time US (EDT). Key topics for discussion include peacebuilding frameworks, strategies and tools, as well as the role of international actors.

Speakers:

Dr. Paul D. Williams

Professor of International Affairs and Associate Director M.A Security Policy Studies Program, The George Washington University

Dr. Fritz Nganje

Former Public Policy Scholar; Associate Professor of International Relations, University of Johannesburg

Dr. Chukwuemeka B. Eze

Executive Director, West Africa Network for Peacebuilding (WANEP)

Ms. Lisa Sharland

Deputy Director of Defence, Strategy and National Security, and Head of International Program, Australian Strategic Policy Institute

Dr. Franklin Oduro

Resident Program Director for Elections, Ethiopia Office, National Democratic Institute for International Affairs

Dr. Phil Clark

Professor of International Politics, SOAS University of London

Andrea Johnson (Moderator)

Program Officer, Higher Education and Research in Africa and Peacebuilding in Africa, Carnegie Cooperation of New York

5.     The “Minneapolis Effect”: Hostility Toward Law Enforcement, Police Officer Passivity, and the Rise of Violent Crime | March 16, 2021 | 3:00 PM ET | The Heritage Foundation | Register Here

The phenomenon of cities with disengaged officers and higher levels of serious violent crimes has come to be called the “Minneapolis Effect.” Join us for a discussion with two scholars who have recently illuminated this criminological trend.

Speakers:

Honorable Paul Cassell

Professor of Criminal Law, University of Utah

Lawrence Rosenthal

Professor of Law, Chapman University

Paul J Larkin Jr. (Moderator)

Rumpel Senior Legal Research Fellow

6.     Asset, Liability, or Both—The Future of U.S.-Saudi Relations | March 17, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace| Register Here

With the release of the incriminating U.S. intelligence report on the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, President Biden—in a sharp break with the Trump administration—has clearly outlined his intention to recalibrate the U.S.-Saudi relationship to ensure it advances U.S. interests and values. 

Are the administration’s initial steps sufficient to rebalance the relationship? Or does more need to be done? What impact has this shift had on Saudi internal politics, specifically on the standing of the crown prince? And even more fundamentally, with the fracturing of the decades-long oil-for-security trade-off, what are the U.S. interests in its relationship with the kingdom in 2021? 

Speakers:

Yasmine Farouk

Visiting Fellow, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Bernard Haykel

Professor of Near Eastern Studies, Princeton University

Robin Wright

Columnist, New Yorker; Fellow at US Institute of Peace and Wilson Center

Aaron David Miller (Moderator)

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

7. Black Sea Connectivity and the South Caucasus | March 17, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute| Register Here

The Black Sea historically served as a major trading route connecting Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia to the Mediterranean world. There is a growing interest in this region from major regional and non-regional actors. In addition to the security dimension, the Black Sea is attracting growing commercial interests. In order to maximize trade opportunities for all parties involved, there is a need for renewed effort to facilitate Black Sea connectivity, in order to manage post-Covid recovery, and achieve significant synergy of resources and markets for years to come. More investment is needed for infrastructure development and harmonization of tariffs and border crossing procedures, with the common aim of increasing competitiveness of the entire transit and transportation system. 
 
The Middle East Institute’s (MEI) Frontier Europe Initiative is pleased to host a panel of experts who will discuss Black Sea Connectivity and its South Caucasus Extension for greater commercial benefits to the wider Black Sea region. 

Speakers:

Ivo Konstantinov
Commercial counselor and trade attache, Embassy of the Republic of Bulgaria

Mamuka Tsereteli
Non-resident fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI

Andrii Tsokol
Associate Director, Infrastructure Europe, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

Iulia Joja (Moderator)
Senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI

8. Pursuing War Crimes: The Meaning of Justice in the Syria Context | March 18, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council| Register Here

Ten years into the tragic Syrian conflict, the cost of the violence and violations stretch beyond imagination. More than half a million Syrian lives have been lost, 12 million have been displaced, and millions maimed and injured. More than 100,000 Syrians have been forcibly disappeared, while tens of thousands languish in official and makeshift detention centers. Those who should be held to account have evaded justice and, in some cases have seen their power grow. 

Over the past few years, leading international criminal lawyers, prosecutors, and civil society groups committed to accountability have filed cases against perpetrators in European courts. Where do these cases stand today and what are the prospects for holding criminals accountable? What role, if any, can US and European policy makers play in supporting the quest to seek justice for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Syria?

Speakers:

Ambassador Stephen J. Rapp
Senior Fellow, US Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide

Dr. Yasmine Nahlawi
Legal Consultant

Sareta Ashraph
Senior Adviser, US Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide

Jomana Qaddour
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East
Atlantic Council

9. Can Diversity,  Equity and Inclusion Deliver Peace? | March 18, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | US Institute of Peace| Register Here

The Global Fragility Act and U.S. Strategy on Women, Peace and Security offer tools for realizing these goals and build upon decades of lessons learned from research and programming in the field. But important questions remain if a new approach consistent with principles of diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) is to be operationalized. What should the role of local stakeholders and beneficiaries be in establishing DEI principles and evaluating program impact? And what are the hurdles to bringing these more inclusive approaches to scale?  

Join USIP and the Heller School for Social Policy and Management at Brandeis University for a timely discussion on how applying the principles of diversity, equity, and inclusion can contribute to more effective U.S. peace and development programs around the world. Panelists will consider efforts to meaningfully engage marginalized or underrepresented groups such as women, youth, and social movement actors to support locally driven peacebuilding.

Speakers:

Corinne Graff, (Introductory Remarks)
Senior Advisor, Conflict Prevention and Fragility, U.S. Institute of Peace

Susanna Campbell
Assistant Professor, School of International Service, American University

Rosa Emilia Salamanca 
Executive Director, Corporación de Investigación y Acción Social y Económica (CIASE) in Colombia

Joseph Sany
Vice President, Africa Center, U.S. Institute of Peace

Pamina Firchow (Moderator)
Associate Professor of Conflict Resolution and Coexistence, Brandeis University 

10. Maritime Security Dialogue: Congressional Perspective on the Future of the US Navy |March 18, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | US Institute of Peace| Register Here

The Maritime Security Dialogue series brings together CSIS and the U.S. Naval Institute, two of the nation’s most respected non-partisan institutions. The series highlights the particular challenges facing the Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard, from national level maritime policy to naval concept development and program design. Given budgetary challenges, technological opportunities, and ongoing strategic adjustments, the nature and employment of U.S. maritime forces are likely to undergo significant change over the next ten to fifteen years. The Maritime Security Dialogue provides an unmatched forum for discussion of these issues with the nation’s maritime leaders.

Speakers:

Representative Mike Gallagher (R-WI) 

Co-Chair, House National Security Caucus and Member, House Armed Services Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee and

Representative Elaine Luria (D-VA

Vice Chair, House Armed Services Committee & Member, Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee

Dr. Seth Jones (Moderator)

Senior Vice President; Harold Brown Chair; and Director, International Security Program.

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Stevenson’s army, March 11

– Blinken and Austin will go to Japan & South Korea.– Blinken & Sullivan willl then meet Chinese officials in Alaska.
– JCS Vice Chairman says Combatant Commands not well integrated.– Poll finds trust in US military dropping.

Pullout of US contractors from Afghanistan more “devastating” than troop pullout.
-WaPo says bipartisan China bill may be next.

– NYT says China is boosting its own technology

– Politico warns of “trade bomb” with EU.

– WSJ reports new sanctions against Islamic State forces in Central Africa.

Correction: I was wrong about this article;  authors want to shift foreign military aid from DOD to State.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Toward a critical C/PVE perspective

Terrorism and violent extremism represent some of Africa’s greatest security threats in 2021. Local groups with international terror links are embedded in East, West, and Southern Africa. They exacerbate local conflicts and enable organized crime rackets—destabilizing an already fragile political landscape. Meanwhile, years of government-led security force interventions, many supported by the US and European governments, have not dislodged the insurgents. On February 24, the United States Institute of Peace convened a panel in conjunction with the RESOLVE Network to discuss local approaches that incorporate tactics beyond kinetic counterterrorism. Speakers and their affiliations are listed below:

Dr. Alastair Reed (opening remarks): Senior Expert, US Institute of Peace; Executive Director, RESOLVE Network

Dr. Akinola Olojo: Senior Researcher, Lake Chad Basin Program, Institute for Security Studies

Dr. Phoebe Donnelly: Research Fellow, International Peace Institute; Member of the RESOLVE Research Advisory Council

Dr. Joseph Sany (moderator): Vice President, Africa Center, U.S. Institute of Peace

Bethany L. McGann (closing remarks): Program Officer, Program on Violent Extremism, US Institute of Peace; Research and Project Manager, RESOLVE Network

Framing Violent Extremism

All of the panelists acknowledged the importance of beginning any discussion of countering/preventing violent extremism (C/PVE) methods with an examination of the definitions that undergird these policies. Olojo stressed that counterterrorism is often a particularly problematic term. State actors, particularly in Africa, have frequently exploited the concept of counterterrorism to abuse their political power. By shifting to discussions of preventing violent extremism rather than counterterrorism, policymakers and scholars can begin to focus on risk factors, early warning mechanisms, and root causes, as opposed to security responses to violence.

In addition to the effect for high-level actors, definitions and terms matter for local actors. As Donnelly noted, women’s groups in particular have raised concerns about threats they have received due to their association with counterterrorism and counterviolent extremism programming. Moreover, Western groups frequently engage with African countries with a preconceived idea of what constitutes the most significant security threats, while ignoring contradictory information from local groups. As a result, Sany emphasized that local actors must own the framing of C/PVE programming.

The COVID-19 pandemic and violent extremism

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a significant development in the evolution of violent extremist organizations in Africa. Olojo pointed to two groups in Africa in particular: Boko Haram and al-Shabab. Since the onset of the pandemic, Boko Haram has pushed narratives that the pandemic is a punishment from God. Through these narratives, the group has sought to capitalize on the crisis to aid their recruitment strategies. In the Horn of Africa, al-Shabab established a COVID-19 prevention and treatment center. The group’s decision to form this center highlights both how the pandemic has exacerbated governance failures. Violent extremist organizations are exploiting these failures to increase their standing.

Community-oriented C/PVE

Discussions of community-oriented C/PVE methods and the role of gender dominated much of the panel’s discussion. Olojo identified four key ideas regarding the inclusion of communities in C/PVE programming. First, community voices ought to be included because they bear the brunt of violence from these groups. Second, research on communities should not simply focus on gathering data, but should also allow communities to express their views. Third, emphasis should be placed on developing a shared vision across communities, which is ultimately a prerequisite to successful dialogue. Finally, policymakers and scholars should remember that their ultimate responsibility lies with enhancing the welfare of these local communities.

Donnelly remarked on the importance of including women’s voices–and a discussion of gender more broadly–in engagements with local communities. She delineated three particularly pressing issues along these lines for Africa in 2021:

  1. Deep concern about the upcoming elections in Somalia and the prospects for election violence perpetrated by al-Shabab. In particular, she fears that an election crisis could sideline the activism of women.
  2. Frustration that PVE policy and programming has continued to fail with respect to the re-integration of women participants in violent extremist organizations. Re-integration programming to date has focused almost entirely on male participants in these organizations, despite the fact that women experience unique barriers to re-entering society.
  3. Societies have not reckoned with the reality of child members of these organizations. Many children were either born into these groups or have been integrated into them, and as a result many children have now been imprisoned due to their connections to Boko Haram.

To watch the event in full:

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Peace Picks | February 21 – February 26, 2021

Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream

1. Restoring Humanitarian Access in Ethiopia | February 22, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 9:45 AM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here

The conflict in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region has displaced millions, and created massive humanitarian need. Despite negotiated agreements with the United Nations, the federal government and ethnic militias continue to impede humanitarian access, disrupting the delivery of lifesaving humanitarian assistance to over 2 million people in need. Humanitarian organizations, and the international community, continue to demand full cooperation from the Ethiopian government to allow unfettered access, with limited results.

Speakers

Jan Egeland: Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugee Council

Catherine Weisner: Head of External Engagement at the UNHCR Regional Bureau for East Africa, Horn of Africa, and the Great Lakes

Daniel Bekele: Chief Commissioner of the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission

Jacob Kurtzer: Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda, CSIS

Judd Devermont: Director, Africa Program, CSIS

2. Priorities for U.S. Middle East Policy | February 22, 2021 | 9:05 AM – 10:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here

During the week of February 22, the Center for Middle East Policy (CMEP) at Brookings will host an international conference — bringing together leaders and experts from the region, the United States, and elsewhere in the world — to discuss the top priorities for the United States and the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The conference, titled “The Middle East and the new U.S. administration,” marks the successful first year of CMEP’s “Sources of Middle East instability” project. This signature effort brings to bear the center’s expertise in regional geopolitics, deep understanding of key countries, and insight into U.S. foreign policymaking to reassess assumptions about the region and to offer a sound knowledge basis for future policy.

Speakers

Meghan L. O’Sullivan: Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs, Director of the Geopolitics of Energy Project – Harvard University

Will Hurd: Former Representative, R. Texas, U.S. Congress

Suzanne Maloney: Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy

John R. Allen: President, Brookings Institution

3. A conversation with US Acting Assistant Secretary Joey Hood on economic priorities in the Middle East | February 23, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here

The stability of the Middle East is highly dependent on economic prosperity. Unfortunately, a weakening economic outlook due to the decline in oil prices and ongoing regional conflicts is exacerbated by the pandemic. The young and growing demographics of the region require swift action to create jobs. Without a long-term regional economic strategy that empowers the region’s rich human capital to contribute meaningfully to the economy, we will continue to go from one crisis to the next. The pandemic is providing a strong catalyst for change and sparking economic diversification and growth.

Speakers

Joey Hood: Acting Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, US Department of State

Amjad Ahmad (moderator): Director, empowerME, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council

4. Security Challenges in Africa: 2021 and Beyond | February 24, 2021 | 9:30 – 11:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here

Terrorism and violent extremism are arguably Africa’s greatest security threats in 2021. Local groups with international terror links are embedded in East, West, and Southern Africa. Their activities foment local conflicts and enable organized crime rackets—destabilizing already fragile political landscapes. Meanwhile, years of government-led security force interventions, many supported by U.S. and European governments, have not dislodged the insurgents. Unless local approaches that incorporate tactics beyond kinetic counterterrorism are included in strategies to prevent violent extremism, Africa’s many national and regional efforts will fail to deliver sustainable and credible peace.

Speakers

Dr. Alastair Reed: Senior Expert, U.S. Institute of Peace; Executive Director, RESOLVE Network

Dr. Akinola Olojo: Senior Researcher, Lake Chad Basin Program, Institute for Security Studies

Dr. Phoebe Donnelly: Research Fellow, International Peace Institute; Member of the RESOLVE Research Advisory Council

Dr. Joseph Sany (moderator): Vice President, Africa Center, U.S. Institute of Peace

Bethany L. McGann: Program Officer, Program on Violent Extremism, U.S. Institute of Peace; Research and Project Manager, RESOLVE Network

5. Iranian public opinion in the Biden era | February 24, 2021 | 1:30 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here

The election of President Biden has raised expectations for a restoration of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and a de-escalation of US-Iran tensions. The Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland recently completed a poll of Iranian public opinion on these and other relevant issues. The Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative invites you to a discussion of the poll results and their implications for US-Iran diplomacy.

Speakers

Nancy Gallagher: Director, Center for International and Security Studies, University of Maryland

Ellie Geranmayeh: Senior Policy Fellow, Deputy Head of Middle East and North Africa Program, European Council on Foreign Relations

Ilan Goldenberg: Senior Fellow and Director of the Middle East Security Program, Center for a New American Security

Barbara Slavin (moderator): Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council

6. A New Strategy for U.S. Engagement in North Africa | February 25, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here

Ten years after the Arab Spring, the socioeconomic and governance grievances that fueled the 2010-2011 uprisings are still prevalent across North Africa, and many have worsened in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.  Despite North African activists and officials pushing for reform, the region has received little U.S. support. Now, the new Biden administration has an opportunity to prioritize North Africa. The United States can ensure long-term stability by working with European and multilateral partners to counter Russian and Chinese influence and support the people’s demands for greater voice and accountability in the region.

Speakers

Daniel Rubinstein: Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa, International Foundation for Electoral Systems

Karim El Aynaoui: President, Policy Center for the New South

Nancy Okail: Visiting Scholar, Center for Development, Democracy, and Rule of Law, Stanford University

Youssef Cherif: Director, Columbia Global Centers Tunis

7. The Bull Moose and the Bear: Theodore Roosevelt and the Deep Origins of Russian Disinformation | February 25, 2021 | 12:15 PM – 2:00 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here

During Theodore Roosevelt’s presidency, Jews in the Russian Empire were subjected to brutal pogroms that claimed thousands of lives. Americans rallied behind the embattled Jewish community and pressed Roosevelt to take action on the global stage. Russia, in turn, fed lies to the press in the United States in a bid to manipulate the public and the president. This seminar explores this little-known episode in U.S. history and considers its implications for Russian-American relations today.

Speakers

Andrew Porwancher: Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

8. Palestine and the Progressive Movement in the United States | February 25, 2021 | 3:30 PM – 4:30 PM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here

How can a U.S. policy toward Palestine align more closely with progressive principles? What are the chief obstacles to promoting a justice-oriented approach to Israel/Palestine in the American political sphere? Will the election of new progressive leaders to Congress make this goal more attainable than in the past? To answer these and other questions, please join MEI for a public webinar and book talk with Marc Lamont Hill and Mitchell Plitnick, coauthors of Except for Palestine: The Limits of Progressive Politics.

Speakers

Marc Lamont Hill: Steve Charles Professor of Media, Cities, and Solutions, Temple University

Mitchell Plitnick: President, ReThinking Foreign Policy

Khaled Elgindy (moderator): Senior Fellow, MEI

9. The Unraveling of Syria and America’s Race to Destroy the Most Dangerous Arsenal in the World | February 26, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here

In August 2013, a massive sarin attack in the Damascus suburbs shocked the world and confronted the Obama White House with an agonizing choice: Whether to enforce the president’s “red line” threat with a military strike, or gamble on a diplomatic solution that offered the appealing prospect of the complete elimination of Syria’s strategic chemical weapons stockpile. Ultimately a deal was struck, and within days the race was on to extract and destroy hundreds of tons of lethal chemicals stashed in military bunkers across Syria, in the middle of a civil war. In his new book Red Line, journalist and author Joby Warrick draws from new documents and hundreds of interviews to reconstruct the key decision points as well as the unprecedented international effort to remove the weapons under fire and then—when no country was willing to accept Syria’s chemicals—to destroy them at sea.

Speakers

James F. Jeffrey: Chair, Middle East Program, Wilson Center

Joby Warrick: Public Policy Fellow, Wilson Center

Robert S. Litwick (moderator): Director, International Security Studies, Wilson Center

10. Dealing with conflicts and their aftermath | February 26, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here

During the week of February 22, the Center for Middle East Policy (CMEP) at Brookings will host an international conference — bringing together leaders and experts from the region, the United States, and elsewhere in the world — to discuss the top priorities for the United States and the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The conference, titled “The Middle East and the new U.S. administration,” marks the successful first year of CMEP’s “Sources of Middle East instability” project. This signature effort brings to bear the center’s expertise in regional geopolitics, deep understanding of key countries, and insight into U.S. foreign policymaking to reassess assumptions about the region and to offer a sound knowledge basis for future policy.

Speakers

Gregory D. Johnson: Nonresident Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy

Jomana Qaddour: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council

Marsin Alshamary: Post-Doctoral Fellow, Foreign Policy

Daniel L. Byman: Senior Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy

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Peace Picks | January 25-29

Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.

1. Reflections on Mass Protests & Uprisings in the Arab World, Part 1 | January 25, 2021 | 1:00 PM – 2:30 PM ET | Arab Studies Institute | Register Here

December 17, 2020 marked the tenth anniversary of the start of the Arab uprisings in Tunisia. Beginning in 2011, mass uprisings swept North Africa and the Middle East, spreading from the shores of Tunisia to Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, and the Eastern Province of the Arabian Peninsula. A “second wave” of mass protests and uprisings manifested during 2019 in Sudan, Algeria, Lebanon, and Iraq. The persistence of demands for popular sovereignty even in the face of re-entrenched authoritarianism, imperial intervention, and civil strife is a critical chapter in regional and global history. In an effort to mark, interrogate, and reflect on the Arab uprisings, we launch a yearlong set of events, reflections, and conversations. We hope to produce resources for educators, researchers, students, and journalists to understand the last decade of political upheaval historically and in the lived present. Over the past decade, a plethora of events, texts, and artistic and cultural productions have navigated the last decade’s spectrum of affective and material registers. We hope to contribute to these efforts through a historically grounded, theoretically rigorous approach that collaboratively interrogates the multiple questions the Arab uprisings continue to pose.

Speakers:

Amaney Jamal: Professor of Politics, Princeton University

Asli Bali: Professor of Law, UCLA

Rochelle Davis: Director, Center for Contemporary Arab Studies

Ahmad Dallal: Dean, Georgetown School of Foreign Service, Qatar

Ziad Abu-Rish: American Druze Foundation Fellow, Georgetown University

Lina Abou Habib: MENA Advisor, Global Fund for Women

Adam Hanieh: Professor, SOAS University of London

Rashid Khalidi: Professor, Columbia University

Bassam Haddad (Moderator): Director, Middle East and Islamic Studies Program, George Mason University

2. Defense Project Series: Dr. Peter Mansoor discusses, “How cultural biases influence success or failure in war” | January 25, 2021 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here

Join us as Dr. Pete Mansoor Mason Chair of Military History, Ohio State University, discusses the influence of culture on US and international militaries and the resulting impact on war strategies and the prospects for success.  The executive officer to General Petraeus during the Iraq surge in 2007-08, Pete Mansoor will talk about how biases and unstated assumptions impact the ability of militaries around the world to achieve success in conflicts.  This topic has become increasingly important in the past two decades.

Speakers:

Peter Mansoor: Mason Chair of Military History, The Ohio State University

3. Africa-Europe Relations in 2021 | January 26, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 10:30 AM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here

Europe’s Africa engagement is in the process of evolution. The ties between Africa and Europe are many. Forged through proximate geography and shared history there is much to draw upon in knitting the two together going forward. But some points of mutual benefit are as yet not fully realized as such, other areas are misinterpreted as problems rather than challenges with upside benefit if gripped adroitly.

This roundtable will focus on the state of the Africa-Europe relationship with its challenges and opportunities, and the role that Southern Europe could play in the process.

The question underpinning the Session is: Why shouldn’t the Africa/Europe relationship grow to be amongst the most important for each continent? What needs to occur to realise that vision?

The virtual roundtable will be held in English on the record with mandatory registration in advance.

Speakers:

Francisco André: Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, Portugal
Lora Borissova: Senior Expert in the Cabinet of EU Commissioner Jutta Urpilainen
Emanuela Del Re: Deputy Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Italy
Theodore Murphy: Director, Africa Programme, ECFR

Arturo Varvelli (Moderator): Head, ECFR Rome

4. Defending the Seas: Gray-Zone Threats in the Maritime Domain | January 26, 2021 | 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM ET | American Enterprise Institute| Register Here

Most of the world’s trade — from electronics to fruit — travels by sea. The disruption of even a few sea-borne supply lines would immediately harm countries. The same goes for the roughly 300 undersea cables that carry the world’s internet traffic. Civilian activity’s reliance on the world’s oceans creates considerable opportunities for gray-zone aggression, the hostile acts between war and peace.

What can NATO member states and partners do to protect themselves from maritime gray-zone threats? Please join AEI’s Elisabeth Braw for a panel discussion on the importance of critical maritime infrastructure and how states can partner with civil societies to protect the seas from gray-zone threats.

Speakers:

Elisabeth Braw (Moderator): Resident Fellow, AEI

Andrew Lewis: Commander, Second Fleet, US Navy

Ewa Skoog Haslum: Chief, Royal Swedish Navy

5. How the Preservation of Afghan Culture Can Support Peace | January 27, 2021 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here

Afghanistan has made enormous economic, political, and social progress in the last 20 years. Often underappreciated, cultural heritage preservation, creative economies, and tourism should play an important role in ongoing peace efforts as they are important for the overall prosperity and economic and societal growth. Given the destruction of the Bamiyan Buddhas in 2001 and other tragedies with longer term cultural, economic, and societal implications, it is appropriate that civil society, culture, and creative economies be a part of the ongoing peace negotiations set to determine the future of Afghanistan.

As we know from other countries, such as Vietnam or Cambodia, cultural heritage preservation, creative economies, and tourism can play an important role in post-conflict economic recovery, providing jobs and livelihoods. It can also contribute to a positive national identity and pride. The proper management and preservation of a nation’s cultural treasures are essential for protecting minority rights, improving environmental protection, as well as strengthening communities in their sense of belonging and ownership, creating lasting and sustainable avenues for growth and development, and over time a more inclusive national narrative. Learn about the heritage of Afghanistan, efforts that have been taken to preserve and promote it, cultural heritage management as part of economic policy, reconciliation, cultural diplomacy, tourism, the benefits around supporting the creative economy, and learn about the role of culture in attaining peace.

Speakers:

Daniel F. Runde (Moderator): Senior Vice President, CSIS

Irina Bokova: Board Member, ARCH International

Luis Monreal: General Manager, Aga Khan Trust for Culture

Adela Raz: Afghanistan Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations

6. Imagining Future Airwars: What Turkish Successes in Nagorno-Karabakh and Libya Might Foreshadow | January 28, 2021 | 3:00 PM – 4:30 PM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here

Over the last year, Turkey has pioneered novel utilizations of existing military technologies to yield highly effective drone relays, aerial reconnaissance methodologies, and multilayered air defense systems. In both Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, these innovations enabled the Turkish-backed side to reverse the initial tide of war. This Zoom event seeks to examine how these developments in the use of drones, anti-aircraft systems, and counter anti-aircraft technologies illuminate the shifting balance of power in Eurasia and Africa in 2021, and beyond.

Drawing on The Middle East Institute (MEI)’s recent publication, “Turning the Tide: How Turkey Won the War for Tripoli,” a diverse panel of experts will explore these issues and their possible implications on theatres as diverse as Ukraine, Yemen, the Arabian Gulf, the Sahel, and Somalia. We will also opine on how the US, EU, and NATO should be preparing for these new forms of aerial warfare.

Speakers:

Wolfgang Pusztai: Security and policy analyst; former Austrian Defense Attaché to Libya

Lieutenant General Michael Nagata: Distinguished senior fellow on National Security, MEI; former head, SOCCENT

Kitty Harvey: Former Naval Intelligence Officer; forthcoming book on Saudi Arabia and Iraq

Whitney Grespin: Visiting scholar, George Washington University; former advisor, Somali Ministry of Defense

Jason Pack (Moderator): President, Libya-Analysis LLC; non-resident scholar, MEI

7. The complexities of unraveling US sanctions and returning to the JCPOA | January 28, 2021 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here

The January 20 inauguration of President Joe Biden has raised expectations for a quick return to compliance by both the United States and Iran to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Biden administration officials have promised to rejoin the JCPOA if Iran returns to strict compliance with the agreement, but won’t be as simple as rolling back all sanctions imposed on Iran by the Trump administration.

The mosaic of new sanctions the Trump administration levied on Iran includes hundreds of new specific targets and new sectors, both primary and secondary. In “Rejoining the Iran Nuclear Deal: Not So Easy,” author Brian O’Toole, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center, defines several distinct buckets for the various sanctions, and explains how the Biden administration might choose to address each bucket.

The Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative and GeoEconomics Center invite you to a discussion of this paper and the prospects for US diplomacy with Iran under the Biden administration. The discussion will feature the author alongside Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, Kenneth Katzman, senior analyst, Iran and the Persian Gulf at the Congressional Research Service, and Ali Vaez, Middle East fellow, Iran project director and senior advisor to the President at the International Crisis Group, and moderated by Ms. Barbara Slavin, director, Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council.

Speakers:

Kelsey Davenport: Director, Nonproliferation Policy, Arms Control Association

Kenneth Katzman: Senior Analyst, Iran and the Persian Gulf, Congressional Research Service

Brian O’Toole: Nonresident Senior Fellow, GeoEconomics Center, Atlantic Council

Ali Vaez: Iran Project Director and Senior Advisor to the President, International Crisis Group

Barbara Slavin (Moderator): Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council

8. Arab Views on Great Power Competition: Unpacking Arab Barometer Surveys | January 28, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here

The latest cycle of Arab Barometer, survey’s polled local opinion of great power (Russia, China, USA) foreign policy in the MENA region. The Middle East has been a significant arena for all three powers in recent years, and foreign policy analysts expect this to be true for years to come. Meanwhile, countries in the region will continue to be caught in the middle of foreign interests and shifting alliances between local states.

Join us for a discussion and presentation of the results of the latest wave, and a panel of Wilson experts weigh in on the significance for local policy and global actors alike.

Speakers:

Lucille Green: Schwartzman Scholar, Tsinghua University

Michael Robbins: Director, Arab Barometer

Asher Orkaby: Fellow; Research Scholar, Transregional Institute, Princeton University

James F. Jeffrey: Chair of the Middle East Program; Former Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, and Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS

Marissa Khurma (Moderator): Program Director, Middle East Program

9. The South Asian Security Landscape | January 28, 2021 | 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM ET | Stimson Center | Register Here

South Asian Voices Visiting Fellows Asma Khalid, Chirayu Thakkar, Fizza Batool, and Saurav Sarkar present their research and policy recommendations on some of the subcontinent’s most pertinent strategic issues. These presentations are the result of a year-long fellowship with the Stimson Center South Asia Program. Fellows will examine the changing deterrence landscape in South Asia, U.S.-India cooperation in multilateral institutions, the role of Pakistani political parties in the Afghanistan peace process, and the potential impact of the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP) on intra-Afghan negotiations.

Speakers:

Asma Khalid: Research Associate, Centre for Strategic and Contemporary Research

Chirayu Thakkar: Doctoral Candidate in International Relations, National University of Singapore

Fizza Batool: Doctoral Candidate in International Relations, University of Karachi

Saurav Sarkar: Research Associate, Centre for Air Power Studies

Brigitta Schuchert (Moderator): Research Associate and Managing Editor of South Asian Voices, Stimson Center

10. The Future of Democracy in Asia | January 29, 2021 | 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here

Asia represents a critical frontier for democratic governance that will shape the geopolitical landscape of the 21st century. Democratic states in the region face increasing strain from an interconnected set of challenges across political, economic, and cultural dynamics. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, uncertainty about American strategy, the implications of emerging technologies, and support for illiberal populism and authoritarianism by policymakers and foreign actors have tested democratic norms in the region.

On Friday, January 29, as part of the initiative on Democracy in Asia, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings will host an event examining the health of democracy in Asia. Following opening remarks by Brookings President John R. Allen, Taiwan Digital Minister Audrey Tang will deliver a pre-recorded keynote address and respond to questions. A moderated panel with regional experts and scholars will then explore the ongoing intraregional challenges and trends affecting democratic governments and institutions across the Indo-Pacific. Following the conversation, panelists will take questions from the audience.

Speakers:

John Allen: President, Brookings Institution

Audrey Tang: Digital Minister of Taiwan

Ryan Hass (Moderator): Senior Fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies

Richard C. Bush: Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies

Mireya Solis: Director, Center for East Asia Policy Studies

John Lee: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

Maiko Ichihara: Associate Professor, Hitotsubashi University; Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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Stevenson’s army, December 22

In the Taiwan Strait and in Strait of Hormuz.
FP says China exposed US agents in Africa.
Politico mentions some of the extra items included in the Covid Relief & Omnibus appropriations bill Congress passed Monday night: Among the other items included: a hard-fought bipartisan agreement to protect patients from receiving “surprise” medical bills, a compromise version of an annual authorization for the intelligence community, the creation of two new Smithsonian museums, tax extenders, a Tibet human rights bill, and a ban on race-day horse doping, just to name a few.

Congress will come back to vote on NDAA veto overrride.
And here’s the 2021 Senate calendar.

Prof Brands has nuanced ideas for responding to Russian hack.

Mexican military gains in power and role in society.
Report says DOD needs to look out for extremists in the ranks.
Other signers reaffirm commitment to JCPOA.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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