1. Completing Europe: Will Macedonia seize its moment? | Monday, October 22, 2018 | 4:00 pm – 5:15 pm | Atlantic Council | 1030 15th St. NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 2005 | Register Here
On September 30, Macedonians voted in a referendum that would rename the country North Macedonia and remove the key obstacle to NATO and European Union (EU) membership. A boycott effort, outside influences, and ambivalent results – more than 90 percent voting yes, but below 40 percent turnout – raise questions about what comes next.
Will the government in Skopje muster the constitutional majority required to adopt the changes called for in the Prespa Agreement it negotiated with Greece? If not, will the country face snap parliamentary elections? How does this influence the calculus in Greece ahead of its own difficult parliamentary vote on the agreement? What impact does this have on the region and prospects for future NATO and EU enlargement. What roles are the United States, Europe and Russia playing in all this?
Speakers The Rt. Hon. Lord Robertson of Port Ellen Former Secretary General of NATO
Lilica Kitanovska Chief, VOA Macedonian Service
Damon Wilson Executive Vice President, Programs and Strategy, Atlantic Council
2. Turmoil in Nicaragua: Is there an end in sight? | Tuesday, October 23, 2018 | 9:00 am – 11:00 am | Wilson Center | 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 6th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
Since April 2018, Nicaragua has been rocked by street protests against the government of President Daniel Ortega. Amidst harsh measures that criminalize social protest, the government arrested over two dozen opposition activists and leaders on Sunday, October 14th, subsequently releasing them after an international outcry.
According to the OAS Inter-American Human Rights Commission, over 300 people have been killed, the majority of them anti-government demonstrators. A broad civic alliance consisting of the private sector, student, labor, and human rights groups, and intellectuals has demanded an end to the repression, the resignation of Ortega, and the holding of early elections. Attempts by the Catholic Church to mediate a dialogue have thus far failed.
Speakers Cynthia J. Arnson Director, Latin American Program, Woodrow Wilson Center
Douglas Castro Professor & Researcher, Universidad Centroamericana Member of Alianza Cívica’s Political Committee
Lesther Alemán Student of Communications, Universidad Centroamericana Member of Alianza Cívica’s Political Committee
Jeancarlo López Student of Engineering, National Autonomous University of Nicaragua Member of Alianza Cívica’s Political Committee
Dr. Shelley McConnell Associate Professor of Government St. Lawrence University
3. Israel in a Turbulent Region: A Conversation with Ephraim Sneh | Tuesday, October 23, 2018 | 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm | Wilson Center | 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 6th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
Israel sits at the center of a region in the throes of several major challenges, including the situations in Iran, Syria, and Lebanon as well as the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Join the Wilson Center for a conversation with Ephraim Sneh, a long-time Israeli official and analyst of Israel’s foreign policy and the region at large. He will address these challenges as well as the state of U.S.-Israeli relations.
Speakers Jane Harman Director, President and CEO, Wilson Center
Aaron David Miller Vice President for New Initiatives and Middle East Program Director, Wilson Center
General (Ret.) EphraimSneh Chairman, S. Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue, Netanya Academic College Former Cabinet Member and Knesset Member
4. On the Brink of Brexit: The United Kingdom, Ireland and Europe | Tuesday, October 23, 2018 | 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm | Brookings Institution | Falk Auditorium: 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The United Kingdom will leave the European Union on March 29, 2019. But as the date approaches, important aspects of the withdrawal agreement as well as the future relationship between the U.K. and EU, particularly on trade, remain unresolved. Nowhere are the stakes higher than in Northern Ireland, where the re-imposition of a hard border with Ireland could threaten a hard-fought peace. Scotland, which voted resoundingly against Brexit, has raised questions about the future of devolved governance arrangements in the U.K., while the independence question remains alive. As Robert Bosch Senior Fellow Amanda Sloat writes in her recent report “Divided kingdom: How Brexit is remaking the UK’s constitutional order,” “Brexit will alter not one but two unions: the European Union and the United Kingdom.”
On October 23, 2018, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings will host a panel discussion on the Brexit endgame. It will examine what the decisions of the coming weeks could mean for the U.K., Ireland and Northern Ireland, Scotland, the European Union, and the United States. Sloat will be joined on the panel by Douglas Alexander, former U.K. Secretary of State for Scotland and Shadow Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs; Lucinda Creighton, former Irish Minister for European Affairs; and Sir Kim Darroch, British Ambassador to the United States. Edward Luce of the Financial Times will moderate.
Speakers ThomasWright Director, Center on the United States and Europe
Amanda Sloat Robert Bosch Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Douglas Alexander Senior Fellow, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Chair, UNICEF UK
Lucinda Creighton CEO, Vulcan Consulting
Sir Kim Darroch British Ambassador to the United States, British Embassy
Edward Luce Washington Columnist and Commentator, Financial Times
5. The Future of AMISOM | Wednesday, October 24, 2018 | 1:30 pm – 3:30 pm | Center for Strategic & International Studies | 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
A panel discussion addressing the evolution, challenges, and future of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Deployed in 2007 to counter the threat of al-Shabaab in Somalia, AMISOM remains the African Union’s most extensive and dangerous military intervention. Eleven years later, however, Somalia’s security challenges persist. As al-Shabaab continues to stage deadly attacks, questions linger regarding AMISOM’s transition, the commitment of its Troop Contributing Countries (TCCs) and the ability of the Somali National Army to stand on its own.
The event will feature Paul D. Williams, and his recent book, Fighting for Peace in Somalia: A History and Analysis of the African Union Mission (AMISOM), 2007-2017, which offers a meticulous account of AMISOM since its deployment. Paul Williams will present insights from his book on the history and obstacles of AMISOM, and address how AMISOM’s funders and troop contributors envision its future. Amanda Dory, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, will then weigh in on potential avenues through which AMISOM could transition from Somalia.
Speakers Paul D. Williams Associate Director of the Security Policy Studies M.A. Program, George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs
Amanda Dory Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, Office of the Secretary of Defense
Judd Devermont Director, Africa Program
6. US Policy & The War in Yemen | Thursday, October 25, 2018 | 10:00 am – 11:30 pm | Brookings Institute | Falk Auditorium: 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The war in Yemen is in its fourth year of unabating violence. What began as a power struggle within the government has now ensnared a population of nearly 30 million. With tens of thousands killed, millions displaced, and many more dependent on humanitarian assistance for survival, the state is on the brink of collapse
Yemen now constitutes one of the worst humanitarian disasters in the world, in a large and impoverished country. Nonetheless, little discussion is devoted to how U.S. policy affects this disaster and what might be done to ease the dire conditions on the ground. The United States supports the war effort of the Saudi- and Emirati-led coalition in the war, fighting against Iranian-backed Houthis. The war will also have major implications for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its stability. Riyadh is America’s oldest ally in the region and Washington has important geopolitical interests at stake. In September, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo certified that the U.S. allies were working to reduce civilian casualties, reportedly overriding staff recommendations on this.
Speakers Natan Sachs Director, Center for Middle East Policy
Bruce Riedel Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, Center for Middle East Policy
Dafna Rand Vice President for Policy and Research, Mercy Corps
Fatima Abo Alasrar Senior Analyst, Arabia Foundation
Daniel L. Byman Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
7. Next Steps for US Strategy in Syria | Friday, October 26, 2018 | 12:00pm – 1:30 pm | Hudson Institute | 1201 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Suite 400 Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
Hudson Institute will host a panel to assess U.S. policy in Syria. Panelists will consider how the Trump Administration’s new Syria strategy diverges from previous administrations’ and analyze how the new strategy intends to respond to outside influencers, particularly Russia, Iran, and the Islamic State, who continue to obstruct U.S. efforts within Syria.
Speakers Mariam Jalabi Representative, Syrian Opposition Coalition to the United Nations
Michael Doran Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Jonas Parello-Plesner Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Jomana Qaddour Doctoral Candidate, Georgetown University Law Center Former Senior Policy Analyst, U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom
8. Prevent to Protect: From Counter-Radicalization to Disengagement | Friday, October 26, 2018 | 2:00pm – 3:00 pm | Center for Strategic & International Studies | 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Join Muriel Domenach, Secretary General of the French government’s Inter-ministerial Committee for the Prevention of Delinquency and Radicalization (CIPDR), as she discusses France’s ongoing efforts to counter radicalization and violent extremism.
“Prevent to Protect,” the plan released by CIPDR in February 2018, offered 60 measures to refocus France’s policy of prevention around five key themes:
Shielding individuals from radicalization
Widening the detection and prevention network
Understanding and preparing for developments in radicalization
Training local stakeholders and assessing practices
Tailoring disengagement schemes
After Ms. Domenach’s remarks, Seth G. Jones, Harold Brown Chair and Director of the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, will host a moderated armchair discussion comparing and contrasting the French and American perspectives on the issues of returning foreign fighters, counter-narrative efforts, and building community resilience.
Speakers Muriel Domenach Secretary General, Interministerial Committee for the Prevention of Delinquency and Radicalization
Seth G. Jones Harold Brown Chair Director, Transnational Threats Project Senior Adviser, International Security Program
1. What Drives Violence in Central America’s Northern Triangle? | Tuesday, September 25, 2018 | 9:30 am – 11:00 am | U.S. Institute of Peace | 2301 Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20037 | Register Here
Violence and crime are the main drivers of mass immigration from Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador into the United States. These countries form a region known as the Northern Triangle, which ranks in the top 10 worldwide for homicide, corruption, drug trafficking and gang violence. Non-state actors perpetuate insecurity, forcibly recruit individuals into their ranks and use sexual violence as a tool of intimidation and control.
Central America became a key area of U.S. foreign policy in the late 1970s, when a number of conflicts and revolutions broke out across the region. U.S. development assistance spiked during this period and during the early 2000s as conflict began to increase again. A significant amount of these funds were allocated to the war on drugs, rather than for security, peace and development. As conflict continues to escalate in Central America, how can the U.S. mitigate the violence, support and strengthen rule of law, and curb immigration?
Please join the U.S. Institute of Peace and the partners of the Conflict Prevention and Resolution Forum (CPRF) for a discussion on the issues facing Central America, and how the peacebuilding community can develop programming to prevent and mitigate violence, support community resilience and help stabilize the region. Join the conversation on Twitter with #CPRF.
Since 1999, the CPRF has provided a monthly platform in Washington that highlights innovative and constructive methods of conflict resolution. CPRF’s goals are to (1) provide information from a wide variety of perspectives; (2) explore possible solutions to complex conflicts; and (3) provide a secure venue for stakeholders from various disciplines to engage in cross-sector and multi-track problem-solving. The CPRF is hosted at USIP and SAIS and organized by the Conflict Management Program in conjunction with Search for Common Ground. The CPRF is co-sponsored by a consortium of organizations that specialize in conflict resolution and/or public policy formulation.
Speakers
Steve Hege
Senior Expert, Colombia, U.S. Institute of Peace
Enrique Roig
Director, Citizen Security Practice Area Creative Associates International
Others TBD
2. China: Managing Conflict and Competition | Thursday, September 27, 2018 | 11:00 am – 12:00 pm | U.S. Institute of Peace | 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 | Register Here
The evolution of U.S.-China relations over the last 40 years presents challenges that, if not properly managed, threaten American leadership in key places of strategic interest, from Asia to Africa to the Western Hemisphere. Please join us for a Bipartisan Congressional Dialogue with two members of Congress who see tension rising as cooperation recedes and the People’s Republic of China increases its malicious activity in cyberspace, expands its military capabilities and presence around the globe, and uses economic tools to gain strategic leverage and undermine democracy in fragile states.
Rep. Chris Stewart (R-UT) and Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-MD) are both members of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations and Related Agencies. Rep. Stewart also serves on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and Rep. Ruppersberger was the first Democratic Freshman appointed to the Committee and concluded his service on the Committee as the Ranking Member. Both Representatives will discuss Congress’ efforts to focus attention on China’s military, diplomatic, and economic approaches around the globe at USIP’s sixth Bipartisan Congressional Dialogue.
Moderated by Nancy Lindborg, President, U.S. Institute of Peace
3. Double Game: Why Pakistan Supports Militants and Resists U.S. Pressure to Stop | Thursday, September 27, 2018 | 11:00 am – 12:30 pm | CATO Institute | 1000 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20001 | Register Here
Featuring Sahar Khan, Visiting Research Fellow, Cato Institute; Ambassador Robin L. Raphel, Former Assistant Secretary of State, South Asia; moderated by John Glaser, Director of Foreign Policy Studies, Cato Institute.
The Trump administration has taken a hardline approach toward Pakistan, cutting military and security aid throughout 2018 and accusing Pakistan of not doing enough to combat militants operating on its soil. Pakistan, however, maintains that it has eliminated all safe havens and that the United States is unfairly targeting the country.
Washington’s conventional wisdom on Pakistan correctly links militant sponsorship with the state’s military and intelligence agencies. As such, U.S. policies to combat Pakistan’s militant sponsorship have primarily focused on pressuring the military. In a new report, Sahar Khan analyzes Pakistan’s anti-terrorism legal regime, judiciary, and police and finds that in the context of counterterrorism, civil institutions have developed policies and bureaucratic routines that reinforce the military’s policy of sponsoring militant groups. And this is one of the primary reasons why U.S. attempts to change Pakistan’s policy of militant sponsorship have failed.
Please join us for a lively discussion, with lunch to follow.
4. The Nation-State Law: Implications for Democracy and Peace in Israel/ Palestine | Thursday, September 27, 2018 | 3:00 pm – 4:30 pm | Foundation for Middle East Peace | 1319 18th St NW, Washington DC 20036 | Register Here
In July of this year, the Israeli Knesset passed the “Nation-State” law, defining Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people exclusively. The law poses a major threat to the status of minorities in Israel, especially Palestinian citizens of Israel, who comprise around 20% of the population. Because it can be interpreted to apply to the territories occupied by Israel in 1967, it is also poised to entrench Israel’s occupation. Join us for a conversation about the implications of the law for Israel’s minorities, Middle East peace, and the future of Israeli democracy.
Speakers:
Jafar Farah is the founder and the Director of Mossawa, the Advocacy Center for Arab Citizens in Israel. Jafar is a long-time advocate and activist for civil rights for the Arab community. As a community organizer and activist he was involved in establishing several organizations such as I’lam, ACAP (Arab Center for Alternative Planning) and the follow up committee for Arab education. Before establishing Mossawa, Jafar worked as a journalist for the Local network of Ha’aretz and as a TV producer.
Nabila Espanioly is a feminist and peace activist who founded the Pedagogical Center and Multipurpose Women’s Centre in Nazareth (Al-Tufula) in 1989 and has served as the director since that time. She has an M.A. in Psychology from Bamberg University, Germany and a B.A. in Social Work from Haifa University.
Dr. Debra Shushan is Director of Policy and Government Relations at Americans for Peace Now. Prior to joining APN, she specialized in the politics of the Middle East and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as an Assistant Professor of Government at the College of William and Mary in Williamsburg, VA. Dr. Shushan’s writing appears in Haaretz and she is a regular guest on “The Spin Room” on Israel’s i24 TV.
5. Fixing Fragility in the Sahel | Friday, September 28, 2018 | 3:00 pm – 4:30 pm | Brookings Institution | 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
According to the 2018 Failed States Index, 10 of the world’s most fragile states are in Africa and the Sahel region is a particular locus of concern. Countries such as Burkina Faso, Chad, Mauritania, Mali, and Niger, are facing challenges associated with violent extremism, organized, and transnational criminal networks. During the past decade, terrorists groups such as al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, the Islamic State, and Boko Haram have killed thousands of people, displaced populations, and threatened stability and security.
Mali’s own efforts at national as well as Sahel-wide stabilization are instructive. In spite of the establishment of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali—MINUSMA—and the efforts of the G-5 Sahel, along with international efforts to bring peace and security, fragility continues to undermine socio-economic development progress. Creating a viable future for the region will require interlinked solutions at the nexus of economics, security, state capacity, humanitarian efforts, and international interventions.
On September 28, the Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings will host His Excellency Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, president of Mali and co-founder of the G-5 Sahel. President Keita will deliver opening remarks, after which he will sit down for an interview with Brookings President John R. Allen.
6. Network Propaganda: Manipulation, Disinformation, and Radicalization in American Politics | Friday, September 28, 2018 | 4:00 pm – 5:30 pm | CATO Institute | 1000 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20001 | Register Here
Featuring the author Yochai Benkler, Berkman Professor of Entrepreneurial Legal Studies, Harvard Law School; with comments by Rebecca MacKinnon, Director, Ranking Digital Rights project, New America; moderated by Julian Sanchez, Senior Fellow, Cato Institute.
The internet and social media were supposed to radically democratize news and information—yet many observers now worry that they are undermining the preconditions for healthy democracies. Misinformation peddled by conspiracy theorists, unscrupulous clickbaiters, and even intelligence agencies spreads around the globe at the speed of light, while in the United States, citizens increasingly retreat into distinct media ecosystems so divergent as to be mutually unrecognizable. Can liberal democracy function in a world in which voters no longer inhabit the same universe of facts?
We’ll take up these questions with renowned scholar Yochai Benkler, coauthor of the important new book-length study Network Propaganda: Manipulation, Disinformation, and Radicalization in American Politics. We’ll take a close look at the dynamics of how propaganda, misinformation, and “fake news” propagate across modern information networks. Rebecca MacKinnon, author of Consent of the Networked: The Worldwide Struggle for Internet Freedom, and Cato senior fellow Julian Sanchez provide commentary.
1. The War on Something-ism: 17 Years and Counting | Monday, September 10, 2018 | 12:00 pm – 1:30 pm | Hudson Institute | 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Suite 400 Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
The devastating toll of the September 11, 2001 attacks galvanized the global community to fight Islamic extremism and defeat al-Qaeda. What began in Afghanistan, continues in Iraq and Syria, in Yemen and the Horn of Africa, in Europe. 17 years on, the engagement dubbed “the never-ending war” continues, as religious extremism takes new forms and continues to destabilize the Middle East and North Africa, and continues in Southwest Asia.
The Trump Administration has expressed optimism that victory will be achieved once the remaining Islamic State (ISIS) strongholds are eliminated. However, the intelligence community already sees signs of new extremist groups cropping up in Iraq, ISIS emerging in Afghanistan, extremist strongholds in Syria. Pulling the U.S. out too early and declaring victory without a strategy to win will enable old extremist groups to re-establish their hold on the region and allow new groups to compete for territory.
Thomas Joscelyn, Speaker – Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Bill Roggio, Speaker – Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Michael Pregent, Speaker – Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Michael Doran, Speaker – Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Catherine Herrridge, Moderator – Chief Intelligence Correspondent, Fox News
2. Countering Disinformation: Interdisciplinary Lessons for Policymakers | Monday, September 10, 2018 | 3:00 pm – 4:30 pm | Center for Strategic and International Studies | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
With the growth of social media, disinformation has become an increasingly potent political tool. State and non-state actors from various countries, among them Russia and China, have become adept at manufacturing and spreading disinformation or using covert campaigns to influence public perception and political outcomes in democratic countries around the world. Responding to this threat requires policy makers to integrate insights from different countries and from academic fields that are too often siloed, including communications, computer science, and social psychology.
Speakers:
Joshua Eisenman – Assistant Professor of Public Affairs, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin
Jakub Janda – Director, European Values Think Tank (Prague)
Saiph Savage – Assistant Professor of Computer Science and Director, Human Computer Interaction Laboratory, West Virginia University
Tabea Wilke – Founder and CEO, Botswatch
Jeffrey Mankoff – Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS
3. Weapons of Mass Destruction and Cooperative Threat Reduction: Looking Ahead | Tuesday, September 11, 2018 | 12:00 pm – 1:30 pm | Hudson Institute | 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Suite 400 Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, preventing weapons of mass destruction (WMD) from falling into the hands of a state or non-state adversary has been a critical priority for the U.S.
A report of a workshop conducted by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences Committee on International Security and Arms Control examines how the U.S. government is managing the threat posed by WMDs through its Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) programs. As argued in “Cooperative Threat Reduction Programs for the Next Ten Years and Beyond,” the cooperative dimension of CTR programs has allowed the U.S. to collaborate with other governments, nongovernmental agencies, and the private sector to reduce WMD threats outside of the United States. However, as the report co-chairs assert, more can and should be done. By tailoring engagement and enhancing the impact of the CTR programs through for example, more government-industry collaborations and better cooperation with multilateral organizations, cooperative threat reduction can continue to improve the long-term security of the U.S. and its allies.
On September 11, Hudson will convene a panel with the co-chairs of the new report to discuss their assessments of Cooperative Threat Reduction programs. Copies of the report will be available.
David R. Franz, Speaker – Board Member, Integrated Nano-Technologies
Elizabeth Turpen, Speaker – President, Octant Associates and Non-Resident Adjunct, Institute for Defense Analyses
Richard Weitz, Moderator – Senior Fellow and Director, Center for Political-Military Analysis, Hudson Institute
Eunjung Lim is an Assistant Professor at College of International Relations, Ritsumeikan University. Before joining Ritsumeikan’s faculty, she taught at Johns Hopkins SAIS (2013-2017). Her areas of specialization are South Korean and Japanese political economy, comparative and global governance, and energy security policies of East Asian countries. More specifically, Dr. Lim has been working on nuclear issues of East Asian countries.
She has been a researcher and visiting fellow at several institutes, including the Center for Contemporary Korean Studies at the University of Tokyo, the Institute of Japanese Studies at Seoul National University, the Institute of Japan Studies at Kookmin University, and Institute of Energy Economics, Japan. She earned a BA from the University of Tokyo, an MIA from Columbia University and a PhD from SAIS, Johns Hopkins University. She is fluent in Korean, Japanese and English.
5. Russia and Arctic Governance: Cooperation in Conflict | Wednesday, September 12, 2018 | 12:30 pm – 1:30 pm | Stimson Center | 1211 Connecticut Avenue, NW, 8th Floor, Washington DC, 20036 | Register Here
Finland, the country currently chairing the Arctic Council, proposed a high-level Arctic summit during a recent bilateral meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin. While discussion of the summit and a broader suite of Arctic and environmental issues proceeded smoothly, Russian concerns and protests over a large upcoming NATO alliance exercise in Norway, in which Finland will participate, were also raised. All of the Arctic states, including Russia, have long sought to primarily present the circumpolar region as one of peace – and potential wealth. While the question of whether there will be more cooperation or more conflict in the Arctic is a popular and easy one to pose, the more productive question is how cooperation against the backdrop of other, more global tensions has long characterized and continues to shape Arctic governance development. So, how does Russia – the largest Arctic state – engage in the process of pursuing cooperative outcomes and a regional peace conducive to economic gains? How do such cooperative efforts play out against a backdrop of security rivalry between Russia and most of the Arctic states? How robust are circumpolar cooperative venues to worsened relationships between Russia and its partners? Are the solutions produced by the Arctic states so far dimensioned to the challenges facing the region? The Stimson Center discussion will seek to address these key questions as part of a seminar based on Elana Wilson Rowe’s recently published book Arctic Governance: Power in Cross-Border Cooperation (Manchester University Press in the UK/Oxford University Press in the USA).
ELANA WILSON ROWE, Research Professor, the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Elana Wilson Rowe holds a PhD in Geography/Polar Studies from the University of Cambridge (2006). Her areas of expertise include international relations in the Arctic, science and expert knowledge in global governance, climate politics and Russian foreign and northern policy. She is the author of Russian Climate Politics: When Science Meets Policy (Palgrave, 2009) and Arctic Governance: Power in cross-border cooperation (Manchester University Press, 2018).
YUN SUN, Co-Director, East Asia Program, Stimson Center
Yun Sun is Co-Director of the East Asia Program and Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center. Sun’s expertise is in Chinese foreign policy, U.S.-China relations and China’s relations with neighboring countries and authoritarian regimes. From 2011 to early 2014, she was a Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution, jointly appointed by the Foreign Policy Program and the Global Development Program, where she focused on Chinese national security decision-making processes and China-Africa relations. From 2008 to 2011, Sun was the China Analyst for the International Crisis Group based in Beijing, specializing on China’s foreign policy towards conflict countries and the developing world.
MARLENE LARUELLE, Research Professor, Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, George Washington University
Marlene Laruelle is a Research Professor at the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES), at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. She is the Director of the Central Asia Program at IERES and co-director of PONARS (Program on New Approaches to Research and Security in Eurasia). She received her PhD from the National Institute of Oriental Languages and Cultures. She has authored Russia’s Strategies in the Arctic and the Future of the Far North (M.E. Sharpe, 2013), and edited New Mobilities and Social Changes in Russia’s Arctic Regions (Routledge, 2016).
6. Election Interference: Emerging Norms of Digital Statecraft | Wednesday, September 12, 2018 | 4:00 pm | the Atlantic Council | 1030 15th Street Northwest, 12th Floor | Register Here
The reemergence of great power politics in a digitalized global security environment has led to new tools of statecraft wielded by nation-states in advancing their foreign policy objectives. During this event, we will engage cybersecurity professionals, journalists and key stakeholders to discuss the development of norms around election influence and interference and lessons learned from the international community’s brief history with these new tools of statecraft. What toolsets will governments wield in the future as they attempt to control media narratives, target dissidents, and influence other states? And how will the toolsets and norms we currently see in play shape the future of state use of technology?
This panel will look into the future of digital statecraft as technology progresses at an unprecedented rate and nation-states consider ways to wield these persuasive and cunning new tools to potent effect. With recent reports of foreign influence and interference in elections around the world calling public trust in institutions into question, it has become imperative that governments work together to establish norms around nation-state behavior across digital borders and have an informed dialogue about future toolsets for political influence. A reception will follow the event.
Ms. Laura Galante, speaker – Senior Fellow, Cyber Statecraft Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council;
Founder, Galante Strategies
Mr. Sean Kanuck, speaker – Director, Cyber, Space and Future Conflict, International Institute for Strategic Studies
Ms. Michele Markoff, speaker – Deputy Coordinator for Cyber Issues, State Department
Ms. Klara Jordan, moderator – Director, Cyber Statecraft Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Nearly twenty years after 9/11, extremist ideologies have survived global counterterrorism efforts. What have we learned from the response, and what new approaches are needed? Tony Blair, Farah Pandith, and Frances Townsend discuss challenges in the global response to extremism to date and the evolution in approach necessary to overcome terrorist threats.
Tony Blair, speaker – Executive Chairman of the Institute for Global Change; Former Prime Minister of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Farah Pandith, speaker – Adjunct Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations; Senior Fellow, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
Frances Fragos Townsend, speaker – Executive Vice President, MacAndrews & Forbes, Inc.; Former Homeland Security Advisor, White House
Tom Gjelten, presider – Religion and Belief Correspondent, National Public Radio
8. With Us and Against Us: Counterterrorism Strategy Post-9/11 | Thursday, September 13, 2018 | 5:30 pm – 7:00 pm | American University SIS | Abramson Family Founders Room, 4400 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20016 | Register Here
In the wake of the September 11 attacks, President George W. Bush drew a line in the sand, saying, “Either you are with us or you are with the terrorists.” Join the School of International Service at American University as we discuss Dr. Stephen Tankel’s new book, With Us and Against Us: How America’s Partners Help and Hinder the War on Terror,and the future of counterterrorism operations in a post-9/11 world more widely in a conversation moderated by Dr. Audrey Kurth Cronin.
Participants:
Bruce Hoffman is a Professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service and Shelby Cullom and Kathryn W Davis Senior Visiting Fellow for Counterterrorism and Homeland Security at the Council on Foreign Relations. Dr. Hoffman previously held the Corporate Chair in Counterterrorism and Counterinsurgency at the RAND Corporation and was also Director of RAND’s Washington, D.C. Office. From 2001 to 2004, he served as RAND’s Vice President for External Affairs and in 2004 he also was Acting Director of RAND’s Center for Middle East Public Policy. Dr. Hoffman was appointed by the U.S. Congress in 2013 to serve as a commissioner on the Independent Commission to Review the FBI’s Post-9/11 Response to Terrorism and Radicalization, which concluded its work in March 2015.
Audrey Kurth Cronin is Professor of International Security at the School of International Service, and American University’s Founding Director of the Center for Security, Innovation and New Technology. She was previously founding Director of both the International Security Program and the Center for Security Policy Studies at George Mason University. Dr. Cronin has held a vareity of positions in government, including time as a Specialist in Terrorism at the Congressional Research Service, advising Members of Congress in the aftermath of 9/11. She has also served in the Executive branch, including in the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy; the Office of the Secretary of the Navy; and the American Embassy in Moscow. Dr. Cronin is the author of a forthcoming book on terrorism and new technologies, to be published by Oxford University Press in early 2019.
Matt Olsen is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security and former Director of the National Counterterrorism Center. Appointed by the President to serve as the Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, Olsen led the government’s efforts to integrate and analyze terrorism information and coordinate counterterrorism operations from 2011 to 2104. Prior to joining NCTC, Olsen was the General Counsel for the National Security Agency, serving as NSA’s chief legal officer and focusing on surveillance law and cyber operations.
Stephen Tankel is an Associate Professor at the School of International Service and Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security. In his recent book, With Us and Against Us: How America’s Partners Help and Hinder the War on Terror, Dr. Tankel analyzes the factors that shape counterterrorism cooperation, examining the ways partner nations aid international efforts, as well as the ways they encumber and impede effective action. His recent work considers the changing nature of counterterrorism, exploring how counterterrorism efforts after 9/11 critically differ both from those that existed beforehand and from traditional alliances.
War by Other Means: Russian Disinformation Undermining Democracy, Spurring Conflict | Monday, May 7 | 2:00pm – 3:00pm | U.S. Institute for Peace | Register here |
Russia’s concerted disinformation campaign against the West is sowing confusion and distrust and undermining democratic institutions from Ukraine to the United States. Anne Applebaum—a Pulitzer Prize-winning author, thought leader and commentator on politics and foreign policy—and U.S. Institute of Peace Executive Vice President William Taylor will discuss the challenges to the West from Russian aggression and the weapons of disinformation and disruption, and what the United States and its allies need to do to respond. Join USIP for an engaging and timely discussion about Russia’s influence on democratic processes in both Ukraine and the United States. Featuring Anne Applebaum (Washington Post columnist, Pulitzer-Prize winning author and Professor of Practice, Institute of Global Affairs, London School of Economics) and William Taylor (Executive Vice President, USIP).
The Future of War and Challenges for Humanitarians – Featuring the President of the ICRC | Monday, May 7 | 2:00pm – 3:30pm | Wilson Center | Register here |
Will tomorrow’s wars be fought on the same terms as today’s? How will humanitarians need to adapt? Digitalization, artificial intelligence, and big data are transforming our world – and new technologies, such as autonomous weapons and the tools of cyber warfare, are new cause for humanitarian concern. Featuring Peter Maurer (President, International Committee of the Red Cross), Ambassador Martin Dahinden (Ambassador of Switzerland to the United States), Amb. Andreas Kellerhals (Director, Europa Institute, University of Zurich), and Robert S. Litwak (Senior Vice President and Director of International Security Studies, Wilson Center), as moderator. With introductory remarks by Jane Harman (Director, President, and CEO, Wilson Center).
Governance and Security in North Africa and the Sahel | Tuesday, May 8 | 9:00am – 3:30 pm | Carnegie Endowment | Register here |
This conference brings together leading scholars, policy analysts, and practitioners from around the world to address the changing political, socioeconomic, and security dynamics within the Maghreb-Sahel region. Panelists will examine the expanding horizons of insecurity and the challenges of uneven development, political contestation, and socio-religious change. They will also discuss the wider implications of the trends for development, peace, and security in both regions.
Panel 1: Contestation and Adaptation in the Maghreb (9:00am – 10:30am) featuring Anouar Boukhars (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Azzedine Layachi (St. John’s University), Sarah Yerkes (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), and Michele Dunne (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) as moderator.
Panel 2: The Challenges of Governance and Security in the Sahel (10:45am – 12:15pm) featuring Boubacar N’Diaye (Wooster College), Ibrahim Yahya Ibrahim (University of Florida), Ousseina Alidou (Rutgers University), Azeez Olaniyan (Ekiti State University, Nigeria), and Cyril Obi (African Peacebuilding Network, Social Science Research Council) as moderator.
Panel 3: Cross-Border Security Challenges (12:45pm – 2:00pm) featuring Jacques Roussellier (American Military University, South Africa), Mohamed Gain (Ibn Tofail University, Morocco), Rawia Tawfik (Cairo University), and Anouar Boukhars (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) as moderator.
Panel 4: Libya’s Impact on Sahel-Maghreb Security(2:15pm – 3:30pm) featuring Lydia Sizer (Independent Consultant), Karim Mezran (Atlantic Council), Manal Taha (USIP), and Frederic Wehrey (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) as moderator.
The Rise of China’s Private Security Companies | Tuesday, May 8| 10:00am –11:30am | Carnegie Endowment | Register here |
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative includes many state-owned enterprises that are operating in foreign countries for the first time and face unprecedented security issues. Instead of relying on the People’s Liberation Army or People’s Armed Police, hundreds of newly formed private security companies (PSCs) have been created to provide security services for these new ventures. Aside from the competence of these PSCs, questions remain regarding their effectiveness as a stand-in for the Chinese military and ability to work in harmony with China’s state interests. Featuring Alessandro Arduino (Co-Director, Security and Crisis Management Program, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences) and Michael D. Swaine (Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace).
Trump and the JCPOA: It’s the End of the World As We Know It? | Wednesday, May 9 | 12:00pm – 1:30pm | Hudson Institute | Register here |
The Trump Administration is expected to announce plans later this month for U.S. participation in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran Deal. With John Bolton directing the National Security Council, Mike Pompeo confirmed as the new Secretary of State, and Secretary James Mattis at the helm of the Defense Department, the President’s foreign policy team is in place. But while all the President’s men have successfully established their ability to influence the administration’s policy, their recommendations for U.S. participation in the JCPOA have been contradictory to date. Secretary Mattis has signaled that he supports the U.S. remaining in the Iran Deal, while Secretary Pompeo and Bolton seem to support withdrawal. Panelists include Michael Doran (Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute), Michael Pregent (Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute), Richard Goldberg (Senior Advisor, Foundation for Defense of Democracies), and Behnam Ben Taleblu (Research Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies).
Forty Years of U.S.-China Relations | Friday, May 11 | 8:30pm – 1:30pm | CSIS | Register here |
The United States and China are approaching the 40th anniversary of the establishment of formal diplomatic relations. To commemorate this historic milestone, CSIS is hosting a half-day event on the morning of May 11, 2018, to discuss the twists and turns in the relationship over the last four decades and the challenges that lay ahead. The conference will feature key policy figures and experts from both the United States and China. It will begin with a keynote address from a current member of Congress, then have two star-studded panels discussing “The First 40 Years” and “The Next 40 Years,” and then wrap up with a luncheon armchair discussion.
Panel 1: The First Forty (9:25 am – 10:40 am) featuring Mr. James Mann (Scholar-in-Residence, Johns Hopkins SAIS), Amb. Charlene Barshefsky (Partner, WilmerHale), Dr. Suisheng (Sam) Zhao (Director, Center for China-U.S. Cooperation, University of Denver), Dr. Wang (Henry) Huiyao (President, Center for China and Globalization) and Dr. Scott Kennedy (Deputy Director, Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS) as moderator.
Panel 2: The Next Forty (10:50am – 12:00pm) featuring Mr. Daniel H. Rosen (Partner, The Rhodium Group), Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro (Assistant Professor, Georgetown University), Dr. Chen Dongxiao (President, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies), Mr. Wang Wen (Executive Dean, Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China), and Bonnie S. Glaser (Senior Adviser for Asia & Director, China Power Project, CSIS) as moderator.
Luncheon & Armchair Discussion: US-China Relations at a Crossroad (12:00pm – 1:30pm) featuring Sec. William S. Cohen (Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, The Cohen Group), Amb. Cui Tiankai (Chinese Ambassador to the United States), and Mr. Christopher K. Johnson (Senior Adviser and Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS) as moderator.
Colombia Peace Forum: Elections & Peace Processes in Colombia | Monday, April 16 | 9:30am – 11:30am | U.S. Institute of Peace | Register here |
While threats of violence marred recent legislative campaigns in Colombia, the March 11 election was Colombia’s most peaceful in decades. Although the FARC’s new political party underperformed, its comprehensive demobilization was palpable and the National Liberation Army (ELN), the country’s second-largest rebel group, respected a temporary unilateral ceasefire. For the first time in 50 years, ballots were cast freely throughout the country and not a single incident of violence was recorded. With the composition of Colombia’s next Congress set, jockeying and coalition-building among the main candidates is fully underway ahead of the May 27 presidential polls. The outcome will have important implications for the precarious implementation of the 2016 FARC peace accord. Join the U.S. Institute of Peace for a discussion on security and protection throughout the electoral process, analysis of the impact the outcome may have on the implementation of the FARC peace agreement, and the implications for the ongoing process with the ELN. Featuring Alejandra Barrios (Director, Electoral Observation Mission), Juanita Goebertus (Colombian Congresswoman and Former Member of the Government Peace Delegation with the FARC), Mark Schneider (Senior Advisor, CSIS), Jonas Claes (Senior Program Officer, Preventing Election Violence, USIP), and Steve Hege (Senior Program Officer, Security & Justice, USIP) as moderator.
Hidden Wounds: Trauma and Civilians in the Syrian Conflict | Monday, April 16 | 1:30pm – 3:00pm | U.S. Institute of Peace | Register here |
Seven years of conflict in Syria have exacted an enormous human toll and led to widespread physical destruction. The psychological impact of the war, although less visible, has been just as devastating. The levels of trauma and distress impacting Syrian civilians, especially children have been staggering with nearly 500,000 killed, half the population displaced and more than 13 million Syrians in need of humanitarian assistance. The traumatic impact of the Syrian conflict is less often acknowledged, but could significantly impair the ability of Syrian civilians to recover and build a more peaceful future. Syrian doctors and humanitarian relief experts have increasingly engaged on this issue and are developing new and innovative approaches to help address and heal these invisible wounds. Please join USIP and specialists from the Syrian American Medical Society, the U.S. State Department and Save the Children for a panel discussion, addressing an aspect of the Syrian conflict that often receives less attention than it deserves. Featuring Catherine Bou-Maroun (Foreign Affairs Officer, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, DoS), Dr. Mohamed Khaled Hamza (Mental Health Committee Chair & Foundation Board Member, Syrian American Medical Society), Amy Richmond (Director, Child Protection in Emergencies, Save the Children), and Mona Yacoubian (Senior Advisor, Syria, the Middle East and North Africa, USIP) as moderator. With opening remarks by Nancy Lindborg (President, USIP).
US-Europe Cooperation and The China Challenge | Tuesday, April 17 | 10:30am – 12:00pm | TheHeritage Foundation | Register here |
The U.S. and nations of Europe are allies across a range of issues that have kept much of the world free, secure and growing in prosperity for decades since the end of World War II. Is there a future for greater such cooperation in the Indo-Pacific – particularly in the face of challenges presented by China? In areas like international trade and investment, China presents American and European capitals a dilemma. It brings capital to the table, but capital laden with state ownership and support that distorts the global economic environment, sometimes to the detriment of domestic concerns. Politically, Beijing models a system of governance that runs contrary to centuries of Western political tradition, while its growing clout gives comfort to some of the world’s most repressive regimes. And in some areas, like international maritime law, Beijing threatens to overturn standards that have underpinned not only the region’s peace and prosperity, but its own. How can the U.S. and Europe promote their common values in the face of these challenges? What is the balance between cooperation with China and opposition to the negative byproducts of its rise, and can the U.S. and Europe agree on that balance? Featuring Theresa Fallon (Director, Center for Russia Europe Asia Studies), Philippe Le Corre (Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, HKS), Jamie Fly (Senior Fellow & Director, Future of Geopolitics & Asia Programs, GMF), and Walter Lohman (Director, Asian Studies Center, Heritage Foundation) as moderator.
Democracies Under Duress: Are We Losing Central Europe? | Tuesday, April 17 | 11:00am – 12:00pm | CSIS | Register here |
Central Europe’s reintegration with the West and its commitment to democracy and the rule of law were signature foreign policy achievements in the post-Cold War era for the United States. Increasingly, European and U.S. policymakers question whether Central Europe is really committed to democratic values and principles. Corruption, nativism, anti-Semitism, and weak institutions and civil society contribute to the drift of some NATO and EU members in Central Europe toward illiberalism. Join CSIS for a timely conversation on what policy tools Washington and Brussels can use to address democratic backsliding in Central Europe. Featuring Dr. Charles Gati (Senior Research Professor of European and Eurasian Studies, Johns Hopkins SAIS), David Frum (Senior Editor, The Atlantic), Radek Sikorski (Distinguished Statesman, CSIS), and Heather A. Conley (Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic & Director, Europe Program, CSIS).
Countering Russian Kleptocracy | Tuesday, April 17 | 11:00am – 12:30pm | Hudson Institute | Register here |
Kleptocratic regimes use corruption and as a means of control at home and a weapon of influence abroad. Russian oligarchs and other Kremlin agents have become adept at exploiting the global financial system to launder illicit funds and convert them into new forms of power projection, including attacks on Western democratic institutions. The Kremlin’s attempts to influence elections have exposed a series of systemic vulnerabilities in the United States, whose national security now requires a sustained response. Hudson Institute’s new report, Countering Russian Kleptocracy, outlines policy that, if implemented, would provide a comprehensive and effective strategy to counter Moscow’s aims. Featuring Charles Davidson (Executive Director, Kleptocracy Initiative, Hudson Institute), Clay Fuller (Jeane Kirkpatrick Fellow, AEI), Jeffrey Gedmin (Senior Fellow, Georgetown University), Ben Judah (Research Fellow, Kleptocracy Initiative, Hudson Institute), and Nate Sibley (Program Manager, Kleptocracy Initiative, Hudson Institute).
Sustaining Growth in Africa: Economic Diversification, Job Creation, and Infrastructure Financing | Tuesday, April 17 | 12:00pm – 1:30pm | Brookings Institution | Register here |
Improved economic and political governance, together with a favorable global external environment, over the past two decades or so, have set the foundation for Africa’s economic prosperity. Most economies across Africa responded with resilience to the 2014 commodity price shock, and the recovery is gaining momentum. However, obstacles, including jobless growth and increasing debt, loom in the distance. In its 2018 “African Economic Outlook,” the African Development Bank assesses these challenges and provides some policy recommendations, including economic diversification, development of labor-absorbing sectors, as well as investments in human capital, and in industries with high payoffs. It also recommends a focus on smart and catalytic debt management and infrastructure development. In particular, policymakers should consider institutional, regulatory and project-level challenges to infrastructure development and prioritize sectors and access given large infrastructure financing needs of $130-$170 billion, almost double the long-accepted estimate of $93 billion a year. Featuring Bongi Kunene (Executive Director, The World Bank), Alan Gelb (Senior Fellow and Director of Studies, Center for Global Development), Jeffrey Gutman (Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development), Louise Fox (Chief Economist, USAID), and Brahima Sangafowa Coulibaly (Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development & Director, Africa Growth Initiative, Brookings Institution) as moderator. With introductory remarks by Charles O. Boamah (Senior Vice President, AfDB), and a presentation by Abebe Shimeles (Manager, Macroeconomic Division, AfDB).
Politics and Policy of East Asia’s Economic Future | Thursday, April 19 | 1:90pm – 4:00pm | Wilson Center | Register here |
The Trans-Pacific Partnership is the most recent, and a highly ambitious, step along a familiar road of international economic liberalization and integration through multilateral trade-plus pacts. It promised to deepen and extend openness through commitments on trade in goods and services, investment, harmonization of national regulation on a wide range of economics-related matters labor and the environment, and robust protections for intellectual property and processes for transnational dispute resolution.
Panel 1: After the U.S. TPP “Opt-Out” 1:00 PM to 2:15 PM
Shortly after taking office, President Trump announced that the U.S. would be opting out of the TPP. Although less prominent in the U.S. and elsewhere in the West, domestic political pressures and policies favoring greater protectionism have been on the rise in some East Asian states as well. At the same time, the China-centered alternative to the once-U.S.-led TPP—the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership—persists. And the remaining members of the TPP have determined to go forward without the United States. All of this has been occurring against the backdrop of the WTO’s fading as a force for global economic liberalization. What do these developments portend for economic relations within East Asia and U.S. economic relations with the region? Featuring Inu Manak (Visiting Scholar, Cato Institute), Derek Scissors (Resident Scholar, AEI; Chief Economist, China Beige Book), Bruce Hirsh (Principal and Founder, Tailwind Global Strategies), and Jacques deLisle (Director, Asia Program, FPRI; Professor of Law and Political Science and Deputy Director, Center for the Study of Contemporary China, University of Pennsylvania) as moderator.
Panel 2: Looking to the Future 2:30 PM to 3:45 PM
The politics of international economic policy have created much uncertainty. But this is far from the only, or potentially the most disruptive, force in play. Technological transformation, the “Fourth Industrial Revolution” and kindred developments pose additional challenges and impetuses for change. These shifts are potentially especially significant in East Asia. The region is home to many of the world’s most dynamic economies, has long been a hub of technological innovation, and now faces the consequences of China’s ambitious agenda to create an “innovation economy.” What do these trends and possible future developments portend for economies in East Asia? Featuring Eleonore Pauwels (Director of the Anticipatory Intelligence (AI ) Lab, Science and Technology Innovation Program, Wilson Center), Samm Sacks (Senior Fellow, Technology Policy Program, CSIS), Robert Atkinson (Founder and President, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation), and Shihoko Goto (Senior Northeast Asia Associate, Asia Program, Wilson Center) as moderator.
China’s Growing Influence in the Indian Ocean: Implications for the U.S. and Its Regional Allies | Friday, April 12 | 12:00pm – 1:30pm | Hudson Institute | Register here |
For a long time, the Indian Ocean was considered a secondary concern with less strategic value than other parts of the region. This view is rapidly changing, driven in large part by China’s entry into the Indian Ocean. Recently, China signed an almost century-long lease of Hambantota port in Sri Lanka, demonstrating its interest in establishing a long-term presence in the region. China is already deploying warships in the Indian Ocean and playing a more active role in regional conflicts. The Hudson Institute is delighted to host a panel to discuss the growing strategic relevance of the Indian Ocean and the implications for the U.S. and its regional allies. Featuring Toshi Yoshihara (Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments), Asanga Abeyagoonasekera (Director General, Institute of National Security Studies of Sri Lanka, Sri Lankan Ministry of Defence), Aparna Pande (Research Fellow and Director, Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia, Hudson Institute), Satoru Nagao (Visiting Fellow, Hudson Institute), and Jonas Parello-Plesner (Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute) as moderator.
State fragility is on the rise. In recent years, civil wars have proliferated throughout the world. In 2015, the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) reported 49 active intrastate conflicts, the highest number since 1991; likewise, casualties have increased consistently during the past 25 years. These developments are worrying. In contrast to most interstate conflict, civil wars are extremely difficult to resolve. Studies on intrastate conflicts since 1945 have shown that civil wars tend to last an average of about seven to twelve years, making their repercussions tremendous. As the brutal civil war in Syria exemplifies, the fallout includes humanitarian crises, the rise of extremist organizations, and regional political instability. Policy makers in the West must thus adopt more effective policies to stabilize fragile and failed states.
On March 19, the United States Institute of Peace hosted a high-profile panel discussing how the United States and the international community can address better the national security challenges stemming from state fragility. Nancy Lindborg, President of the US Institute of Peace, was joined by Ilan Goldenberg, Director of the Middle East Security Program at Center for a New American Security, and Kimberly Kagan, founder and President of the Institute for the Study of War. Joshua Johnson, host of NPR’s program 1A, moderated the discussion.
State fragility poses critical security threats. According to Nancy Lindborg, fragile states are characterized by the inability to provide basic public goods such as security and lack political legitimacy as governments typically exclude parts of their citizenry from participating in politics, the country’s social life, and the economy. As a result, fragile states suffer from weak institutions and are less able to manage shocks like disasters and conflict. In this respect, Ilan Goldenberg emphasizes that fragile states often require merely a spark to disintegrate. Collapsing states create serious security vacuums. As outside actors are concerned about losing political influence, they are incentivized to intervene. This generally exacerbates and perpetuates the conflicts already unfolding within failed states.
Syria is a prime example for this vicious dynamic. Goldenberg argues that the 2011 Arab Spring caused the disintegration of the Syrian state and ignited a domestic conflict, which has developed into a regional and international fight over influence in the Levant. Today, Syria is divided into five different zones of influence: a Jordanian-supported rebel pocket in southwestern Syria, the Iran-backed Assad regime in the center of the country, an al-Qaeda safe haven in the province of Idlib, a Turkish-controlled territory in the north, and a Kurdish canton that enjoys US support. Conflict erupts at the intersections of these “tectonic plates.” To pacify Syria, all involved parties must first agree on long-term political arrangements concerning these hotspots before a national reconciliation project can be launched. Goldenberg is however not hopeful that positive change will occur soon. Kimberly Kagan affirms this observation and stresses that the diverging interests of the foreign actors involved in Syria impede any peace progress.
To avoid more Syria-like scenarios, the United States must invest more effort in stabilizing fragile states and pacifying failed states. Given U.S. economic strength, Lindborg argues that Washington has a moral obligation to help fragile states. Support must thereby exceed simple humanitarian assistance and rather address the sources of fragility. Kagan highlights that moral obligations often align with political and security interests such as counteracting breeding grounds of terrorism. She thus advocates more US engagement in form of a balanced hard and soft power approach to help fragile states recover themselves and create situations whereby governance can return. Goldenberg adds that the United States also acts as a role model in addressing state fragility. If the US demonstrates leadership, other states follow suit.
However, Washington is currently unwilling to meets is obligation of providing stability around the world. Lindborg points out that US policies are too reactive. Although consecutive administrations have identified state fragility as a key security threat, they have only responded to crises after they had become far too problematic. The United States is in a state of “hunkering down” whereby Americans are “tired of playing world police.”
It is clear, however, that the United States and European states must tackle state fragility more proactively. While conflicts in the Middle East, Africa, or South and Central America often appear to be localized problems at first glance, they have critical repercussions on the political, societal, and economic situation in the developed world. The international refugee crises and its impact on European and US politics is evidence enough for this circumstance.