Tag: Africa
Peace picks, November 18-22
DC’s top events of the week:
1. Oil Security and the US Military Commitment to the Persian Gulf
Monday, November 18 | 9:00am – 2:30pm
George Washington University Elliott School, 1957 E Street NW, Lindner Family Commons Room 602
9:00-9:20: Introduction
Charles Glaser, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
9:30-11:00: Threats to U.S. Oil Security in the Gulf: Past, Present and Future
Salim Yaqub, University of California-Santa Barbara
Thomas Lippman, Middle East Institute
Joshua Rovner, Southern Methodist University
Chair: Rosemary Kelanic, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
11:15-12:15: The Economic Stakes: Oil Shocks and Military Costs
Eugene Gholz, LBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas-Austin
Kenneth Vincent, George Washington University
Chair: Charles Glaser, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
12:45-2:15: Possibilities for U.S. Grand Strategy in the Persian Gulf
Daniel Byman, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Caitlin Talmadge, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
Rosemary Kelanic, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
Chair: Charles Glaser, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
The U.S. strategic objective of protecting Persian Gulf oil has generated little controversy since the Gulf became a focus of U.S. military deployments over three decades ago. This may seem unsurprising given the widely-appreciated importance of oil to the global economy. Nevertheless, quite dramatic changes have occurred in the regional balance of power, the nature of security threats, and the global oil market since the U.S. made its commitment-raising the possibility that the U.S. role should be revisited. This conference examines two critical questions for U.S. grand strategy in the Gulf. First, should the United States continue to rely on military capabilities to preserve the flow of Persian Gulf oil? Second, if the U.S. security commitment remains strategically sound, what military posture should U.S. forces adopt? The conference panels examine the key rationales driving current U.S. policies, the costs and benefits of alternative approaches, and options for revising the U.S. military stance in the region.
Lunch will be served.
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Wise words from an elder statesman
For 48 years, UN Deputy Secretary General Jan Eliasson has been a key player in global diplomacy, with previous stints as Swedish ambassador to the United States and Swedish Minister of Foreign Affairs. On Wednesday, Eliasson spoke about the current state of global diplomacy and the UN’s post-2015 development strategy, to a large crowd at Brookings.
Eliasson described this year’s meeting of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) as unusually productive. In the current age of “a la carte multilateralism,” there is always a new pressing issue that confronts the international community. Today, such issues as the Syrian refugee crisis, Iran’s nuclear program, and the immigration disaster off the coast of Italy are all part of a day’s work for the UN.
The major discussion at the UNGA this year revolved around Syria. The Assad regime has taken a positive step towards dismantling its chemical weapons arsenal, but “action against chemical weapons is just one step on the road to peace in Syria.” The next step to resolving the conflict lies in increased aid to the millions of people displaced inside and outside the country. In order to tackle this issue, the regime must give the United Nations and other humanitarian organizations access to the people inside Syria’s borders. With 1 million children displaced by the crisis and the cold winter months fast approaching, the time to act is now. Without a ceasefire, the international community can only do so much to help the Syrian people.
The UNGA also saw positive developments with the newly elected Iranian leadership and its nuclear program. Iranian President Rouhani has opened up to the international community since his election, making clear his willingness to negotiate with the P5+1 on the future of the nuclear program. But Eliasson hopes Rouhani’s opening to the West is tested and verified. The sanctions placed on Iran have been successful at crippling the country’s economy, and it will be vital to the negotiations to lift those sanctions only when a significant deal is reached.
Eliasson also discussed the UN Millennium Development goals, which were established in 2000 with the objective of achieving objectives in global health, poverty eradication, education, gender equality, sustainability, and development funding by 2015. With the deadline approaching, the United Nations has made significant progress—global poverty has been cut in half, education for girls in Africa has become more available, and malaria deaths have decreased substantially. But there are also areas that require more attention, such as maternal health, sanitation, and clean drinking water.
As the UN continues to make progress toward the Millennium Development goals, a new set of objectives will look to address sustainability, human rights and rule of law, climate change, and the eradication of extreme poverty. Looking ahead, prevention is going to be key to the success of the UN development agenda. Eliasson said that human rights violations are a major sign that a crisis is imminent. The UN needs to have a way to react quickly to prevent major conflicts.
Reaching into his back pocket to pull out his mini version of the UN Charter, Eliasson said he is convinced that there is unharnessed potential in chapter six of the document, “The Pacific Settlement of Disputes.” It highlights the use of diplomacy, in contrast to chapter seven’s possible use of military force. The military actions of the last decade have caused people to become numb to the effects of the use of force. We have forgotten about the benefits of diplomatic negotiations. Eliasson ended by sharing his four reasons why diplomacy succeeds or fails:
- The careful use of words can make or break diplomatic talks. Words are the diplomat’s most important tool.
- Timing is key. We most often do things too late.
- Everyone involved in negotiations must be culturally sensitive, by respecting the culture, history, and traditions of the groups involved.
- Personal relations are the most important aspect to diplomacy.
Trust is vital. It is crucial to create and build upon personal relationships in order to succeed. Eliasson has practiced what he preaches.
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Trouble in the heart of Africa
Former student Matthias-Sönke Witt (@msbcw) offers a second post from his perch in Ituri:
The crisis in the Central African Republic (CAR) has garnered increased media attention recently, following the adoption of a resolution by the UN Security Council and a widely quoted press statement this week by Doctors Without Borders (MSF). While the latter rightly directed attention to the unfolding humanitarian disaster in the country, caused by massive internal displacement, growing food insecurity, and the collapse of the already weak health care system, the former naturally focused on political and security aspects of the crisis. The UN resolution calls for extensive disarmament efforts, the preparation of new elections according to a roadmap decided upon during April peace talks, the promotion and protection of human rights, and security sector reform. Those are some ambitious demands, given the reality on the ground.
The situation is dire: since a coalition of multiple rebel groups threw out President François Bozizé in March 2013, the already weak state authority throughout the country has collapsed entirely. The rebel alliance, called “Seleka” after the Sango word for “union,” was a coalition of necessity, united in their goal of ousting Bozizé and taking over Bangui, the country’s capital.
Their military leader, an old foe of Bozizé’s named Michel Djotodia, was quickly recognized as the transitional head of state at a regional summit in neighboring Chad, but lost control and influence over most Seleka-affiliated groups as soon as he took up his governing duties. He is now the de jure leader of a state whose security apparatus has all but disappeared, resulting in widespread looting, extrajudicial killings, and a rapid rise in violence throughout the country.
Massive displacement, a consequence of escalating violence, has left fields unattended and food supply short. Aid agencies estimate the total number of internally displaced people s at over 300,000 – an overwhelming number, considering the country’s total population of approximately 4.5 million. Hospitals and health centers have been abandoned or destroyed.
An African Union peacekeeping mission, known as MICOPAX, has been expanded to over 1000 troops in recent months. It is difficult to see how this force can bring stability to the country, as it has been present since 2008 and failed to stand in the way of the most recent rebellion. It will most likely take decisive action from international actors in addition to the African Union if the downward spiral towards complete state failure is to be stopped anytime soon.
French President Hollande has been banging the drums for more international support to stabilize the country, warning of potential regional spillover should its plunge into anarchy not be averted any time soon. He has also announced an increase in the number of French troops, who presently have only a small contingent stationed in Bangui, securing the international airport and a few neighborhoods deemed essential to French interests in the country.
Hollande’s concerns are clear to regional observers. The Central African Republic has been linked to regional conflict throughout its troubled post-colonial past.
Former Congolese rebel leader Jean-Pierre Bemba is currently on trial at the International Criminal Court in The Hague for atrocities his troops committed in Centrafrique in 2002, when now-ousted François Bozizé tried to take power through a military coup for the first time. Rebel groups supported by Chad and Sudan have fought proxy wars on CAR territory during the height of the Darfur conflict not too long ago. Joseph Kony’s Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) has sought refuge in the southern CAR and northern Democratic Republic of the Congo since being ousted from northern Uganda. While US-trained Ugandan and Congolese troops are still actively uprooting LRA camps in the area, the current state of chaos and confusion in Centrafrique could help this dwindling rebel movement regain strength and momentum on CAR soil.
In addition, the stretch of Centrafrique bordering South Sudan and the DRC has seen regional tensions between migrating pastoralists and local communities even before the current escalation of violence. The increased presence of armed groups in the region could serve to further escalate an existing problem.
What Hollande is probably most afraid of, however, is the possibility of an anarchic safe-haven for terrorist rebel groups from West Africa and the Sahel region, a concern echoed by researchers from the International Crisis Group, who fear that Centrafrique might become a training ground for Nigerian Boko Haram.
While regional spillovers have not yet materialized, Hollande’s warning reflects France’s growing uneasiness over developments in central Africa as a whole. Whether his request for international support will be honored remains to be seen, but it is in nobody’s interest to see the CAR spiral further out of control than it already has. Neighboring countries as well as the African Union lack the necessary resources and political will, respectively. Long-term international commitment from beyond Africa to security sector reform and disarmament is needed sooner rather than later if total state failure is to be avoided.
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Peace picks, October 7-11
A wide array of interesting events this week (be aware of possible event cancellations due to the government shutdown):
1. A New Look at American Foreign Policy: The Third in a Series of Discussions
Monday October 7 | 12:00pm – 1:00pm
The Heritage Foundation, Lehrman Auditorium, 214 Massachusetts Avenue NW
For decades, libertarians and conservatives have been at odds over American foreign policy. But perhaps a conversation is possible today between classical liberals and conservatives on the nature of American foreign policy. Some are trying to find a “middle way” that is less doctrinaire. At the same time the “neo” conservative phase of hyper military interventionism is a spent force in conservative circles. Therefore, the time may be ripe for an open and honest conversation among some libertarians and conservatives about the future of American foreign policy. It may be possible a new consensus could be found between Americans who consider themselves classical liberals and traditional conservatives on the purposes of American foreign policy.
Join us as Heritage continues the discussion regarding this question, what the dangers and opportunities are and whether they afford an opportunity to take a “new look” at American foreign policy.
For decades, libertarians and conservatives have been at odds over American foreign policy. But perhaps a conversation is possible today between classical liberals and conservatives on the nature of American foreign policy. Some are trying to find a “middle way” that is less doctrinaire. At the same time the “neo” conservative phase of hyper military interventionism is a spent force in conservative circles. Therefore, the time may be ripe for an open and honest conversation among some libertarians and conservatives about the future of American foreign policy. It may be possible a new consensus could be found between Americans who consider themselves classical liberals and traditional conservatives on the purposes of American foreign policy.
Join us as Heritage continues the discussion regarding this question, what the dangers and opportunities are and whether they afford an opportunity to take a “new look” at American foreign policy.
More About the Speakers
Kim R. Holmes, Ph.D.
Distinguished Fellow, The Heritage Foundation
Randy E. Barnett
Carmack Waterhouse Professor of Legal Theory, Georgetown University Law Center
Marion Smith
Visiting Fellow, B. Kenneth Simon Center for Principles and Politics, The Heritage Foundation
Hosted By
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Peace picks, September 16-20
A busy week ahead in the Nation’s Capital:
1. Unthinkable: Iran, the Bomb, and the American Strategy
Monday, September 16, 2013 | 2:30 PM – 4:00 PM EDT
Brookings Institute, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
Lying behind the turmoil over Syria is another, greater challenge. It is the challenge of a nuclear Iran, which already haunts our Syria debate. President Rouhani’s election has revived the hope of many that a negotiated resolution of this issue is still possible. However, the history of U.S.-Iranian relations leaves room for considerable skepticism. Should these negotiations fail too, the United States will soon have to choose between the last, worst options: going to war to prevent a nuclear Iran or learning to contain one. A nuclear Iran is something few in the international community wish to see, but many fear that a choice will have to be made soon to either prevent or respond to that reality. Can the U.S. spearhead a renewed international effort to prevent a nuclear Iran, or will it be forced to do the unthinkable: to determine how to contain a nuclear Iran?
In his new book, Unthinkable: Iran, the Bomb, and American Strategy, Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Kenneth M. Pollack tackles these daunting questions. Pollack delves deeply into what the U.S. can do to prevent a nuclear Iran, why the military options leave much to be desired and what the U.S. might have to do to make containment a viable alternative. On September 16th at 2:30pm, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host Senior Fellow Kenneth M. Pollack to discuss these sobering issues. Robin Wright, a United States Institute of Peace distinguished fellow and author of several highly-regarded books on Iran, will moderate the discussion, after which the author will take audience questions. Copies of the book will also be available for sale at the event.
EVENT AGENDA
- Introduction
Tamara Cofman Wittes
Director, Saban Center for Middle East Policy
Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy,Saban Center for Middle East Policy
@tcwittes
- Featured Speaker
Kenneth M. Pollack
Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy,Saban Center for Middle East Policy
- Moderator
Robin Wright
Distinguished Fellow, United States Institute of Peace
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Peace picks, August 12-16
Just a few events in DC during a quiet mid-August week:
1. Between War & Peace: Do We Need New Tools For Messy Transitions?
| Date | Tuesday, August 13, 2013 |
| Time | 9:30 – 11 a.m. |
| Location | 1111 19th Street NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20036 |
The office of the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction issued its final lessons learned report earlier this year. Among the recommendations was a call for establishing a new U.S. Office for Contingency Operations, for planning and implementing the diverse activities required in post-conflict deployments, not necessarily of the scale or purpose of the Iraq situation. Our panel will discuss the requirement for such a capability in the U.S. system, consider options to achieve greater planning and execution effectiveness, and also look at what tools and processes reside in the UN system.
Speakers:
Stuart W. Bowen, Jr., Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction
James A. Schear, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, Partnership Strategy and Stability Operations
William Durch, Stimson Senior Associate and Co-director of the Future of Peace Operations program
Moderator:
Ellen Laipson, President and CEO, Stimson Center
2. How Perception Dictates Actions in Ambiguous Situations: Game Theory Analysis of the Third North Korean Nuclear Crisis
Jung Joo Kwon, Korea Foundation Junior Scholar, will present the results of her research conducted at the Wilson Center on the third North Korean nuclear crisis. Arguing that the perception of decision-makers plays as an important role in determining policy agenda as factors such as internal, external and systemic settings, Kwon suggests that it is important to analyze how perceptions and images are formed. Game theory provides a valid analytical tool to explore the decision-making process in international relations in general and in the case of North Korea in particular. Through game theory analysis, Kwon identifies the patterns of perception/misperception around the third North Korean nuclear crisis in order to understand the shift of powers and policies at the time.
James Person, Senior Program Associate with the History and Public Policy Program, will chair and comment on Kwon’s discussion.
Jung Joo Kwon is presently a Korea Foundation Junior Scholar in residence at the Wilson Center. Kwon is completing a master’s degree in International Affairs and Governance at the University of St. Gallen St. Gallen, Switzerland, working on a thesis entitled “Escaping Middle Income Trap in Asia through the National Innovative Capacity: Focused on the Case of South Korea.” She previously earned a Master’s of Arts in International Management from the Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University, and a Bachelor’s of Arts in Business Administration from Hanyang University.
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