Tag: Algeria
Algeria: is stability stable?
Thursday’s discussion at SAIS’s Center for Transatlantic Relations of Algeria After the Elections: Now What? left the audience wondering whether the country’s apparent stability really is stable, in particular as the 2014 presidential elections draw closer.
Algeria pulled off an election no one will say was free or fair for a parliament that controls nothing, as SAIS professor Bill Zartman put it. The junta remains firmly in power. The election results reflect the voting population’s reluctance to rock the boat or entrust its future to Islamists, who did poorly. Algeria had its intifada in the 1990s. Having suffered a civil war as a result, with horrific violence both by the Islamists and the security forces, there are good reasons for those Algerians who remember it not to want a repeat performance. It also had mini-intifadat every month or so in the 2000s and a larger one in January 2010; labor and other protests are common in Algeria, but they have little political impact. It wouldn’t matter if President Bouteflika were removed; the junta remains. However, the time of the presidential elections in 2014 may bring a moment when, whoever runs, the people will have had enough.
Even without revolutionary fervor, Algeria faces big problems. Barrie Freeman of NDI noted that its youth bulge is finding little employment (youth unemployment stands at 40%). Few young people voted. While the government is claiming over 40% of the electorate went to the polls, the real number may be significantly lower. Civic participation is generally low, in part due to a restrictive law on associations. The junta has promised constitutional reform, but it is unclear what that means. There is no reason to expect any serious moves to democratize.
Carnegie Endowment’s Marina Ottaway noted that a remarkably high 18% of voters spoiled their ballots, which likely reflects widespread dissatisfaction. It is harder to interpret the low turnout, which might just reflect indifference. While the Islamist parties did not see the surge evident in Tunisia and Egypt, Algeria suffers as they do from lack of secular opposition parties offering a serious alternative. President Bouteflika represents the last of his generation. Once he and his cohort are gone, within the next few years, the dissatisfaction many feel may emerge in political form, but there is little sign of it yet. The ruling parties have so far hung together fairly well, fearing that otherwise they will hang separately.
Pointing to southern Algeria and northern Mali, Daniele Moro of the Center for Transatlantic Relations raised the specter of terrorism, equipped in part by arms from Libya. We need to keep our eye on this obscure part of the Sahel, which could become a free for all region where Nigerian, Somali and Algerian (Al Qaeda in the Maghreb) terrorists may create a “mini-Afghanistan.” Algeria and Morocco, whose border is closed due to differences over Algerian support to the Western Sahara, are joining with NATO soon in a naval exercise. This is a positive development of a sort Europe and the U.S. should continue to encourage.
No one should be under any illusions. Reform in Algeria has not yet begun in earnest. But the apparent stability of an aging regime may not last.
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A year on in North Africa
I enjoyed a fine event yesterday at an undisclosed location discussing north Africa from the Mediterranean littoral to northern Nigeria. Arab Spring was the overall theme, but with very explicit recognition that it has manifested itself differently in different national contexts. The event was not for attribution, so I can’t offer you the names of the distinguished folks involved, but here is a quick summary:
Tunisia: Still looking like the best of the lot, with a glass half full and continuing to fill. The mostly conscript army refused to fire on civilians, the old order has been willing to yield its positions and there have been Islamist moderates (Ennahda) on the rebel side. There could still be splits that would endanger moderation and the elections may not be held before October 23, as planned. Big issues include whether to have a presidential or a parliamentary constitutional system and whether Islamists will insist on implementing legislation for sharia. This was a political rather a social revolution, but so far a successful one. The U.S. should encourage trade and investment with Tunisia and leave ownership of the revolution with the Tunisians.
Libya: The National Transitional Council has had the advantages of uniting the opposition under reasonably good leadership and with decent planning, but it now faces serious challenges from people who are feeling excluded:
- Youth, who are particularly resentful of demobilization, disarmament and reintegration (DDR) plans on which they were not consulted;
- Tribes: some of them resent the failure to investigate the assassination of General Younis;
- Women: they get only lip service;
- Those seeking redress for mistreatment by revolutionary forces, especially the population of Tuarga, a town whose population the Misratans have vengefully displaced.
Power post-war is increasingly coming to depend on weapons, capture of high-value regime personalities, and a claimed role in the fighting, rather than on programmatic proposals for the future. Islam could become a source of division in Libya, but so far there is little debate because most Libyans agree it has a central role in their society. Still, there is a risk that Salafist elements, who have attacked Sufi shrines, may ignite tribal and sectarian tensions.
The NTC has been in a hurry, more concerned with speed than the quality of the transition process. The U.S. should focus not on the constitutional framework per se but on broad principles: participation of women, protection of minorities, and a broadly representative system of governance.
Egypt: Islamists of one sort or another have captured about 75% of the parliament. In Egyptian eyes, they stand for rule of law, an end to corruption, cultural authenticity and an end to foreign interference. For virtually all Egyptians, sharia simply means justice.
The economy is in free fall, with tourism hit hard, currency reserves plummeting, government bonds selling only at high interest rates and credit to business drying up.
The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) wants immunity from prosecution and continued control over large portions of the economy. It is cracking down hard on protests.
So far as U.S. interests are concerned, the picture is mixed. Egypt does not appear to be breeding violent extremists. Anti-Americanism is more overt, but military to military cooperation is so far not much affected. Egypt will not support U.S. military action as readily as it did at times in the past, but a U.S. aid cutoff seems unlikely.
On Israel, Egyptians are concerned with the below market sale of their natural gas but they are unlikely to support abrogation of the Camp David peace. They will be more vocal and critical of U.S. support for Israeli settlements, attacks on Gaza and a possible attack on Iran.
The U.S. will do well to accept the election results, not ask the Egyptians to like Israelis, and practice strategic patience. The responsibilities of power will moderate Islamist forces in Egypt and restore balance to its relationship with Israel.
Morocco: The King has successfully taken the initiative and coopted the push for a constitutional monarchy, preserving his absolute powers behind the smokescreen of the new constitution he proposed. Social protests are continuing, but there is no serious political challenge to the monarchy. The legislature is weak. Security is a problem, one the relatively weak state may not be able to manage effectively. An uprising is not impossible but unlikely due the regime’s skillful maneuvers and the lack of an effective political opposition.
Algeria: There are lots of reasons why there should be a revolution: mass discontent, especially among the young and more educated, deep and wide corruption, lack of transparency and the state’s contempt for its citizens, widespread disillusion with the political system, social inequities, dependence on oil and gas, the demonstration effect of other north African rebellions, wide availability of social media.
But it isn’t happening. Algeria in many respects already has a democratic political culture, with frequent strikes and relative media freedom. It has used its oil and gas revenue effectively to appease the population, which disdains the state but shows little sign of despising the political leadership, in particular President Bouteflika. The military coup and civil war of the early 1990s have left many Algerians unwilling to risk a challenge to the established order.
Still, something might happen. A presidential succession looms, as do legislative elections (May 10). The political leadership is aging and it is not clear who will inherit.
The Sahel: The presentations focused on particular issues. First was Al Qaeda in the Maghreb, the Algerian terrorist group that has been largely defeated inside Algeria and has now turned to crime: smuggling, human trafficking, drug trade, kidnapping. It is making lots of money. The second was northern Nigeria, where Boko Haram is tying down the Nigerian security forces. That, the situation in the Delta and contestation between Christians and Muslims in central Nigeria are making it difficult for the Nigerians to play a major role in meeting the Sahelian challenge.
I focused on possible approaches to security in the Sahel, based on experience elsewhere. My personal conclusion is that the Sahel today does not today present a serious security challenge to the United States, but some preventive effort there–especially regional cooperation on community-level development, tracking terrorist financing and border controls–would be appropriate.
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This week’s peace picks
I somehow managed to commit myself to three events this week, one off-the-record and two public: on Syria with Mona Yacoubian at the Center for National Policy (1 MA Ave), February 23, 12-1:15 and on Algeria (the same day!) 3-4:30 pm in BOB (1717 MA) 500 at SAIS. The week is a short one and therefore crowded with other interesting events:
1. Campaign 2012 Series – Election Cycle Foreign Policy with Heather Hurlburt, February 21, 6-7:30 PM
Campaign 2012 Series:
Election Cycle Foreign Policy with Heather Hurlburt
While the upcoming presidential election this year may be dominated by domestic issues, foreign policy remains a critical factor in any election season. Every aspiring foreign policy leader needs to have the skills and savvy to navigate electoral politics. As we gear up for Election 2012, YPFP is reviving the popular Campaign Series from 2008 to give members the opportunity for spirited bi-partisan debate on both the role of foreign policy on the upcoming election, and the impact of the presidential contest on foreign policy.
In this election, Iran, Syria, and the new “Pacific Pivot” strategy have emerged front and center, while the endgame of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have begun to recede. Yet, nothing carries more influence than the economy, with most foreign policy questions being viewed through the lens of job creation or possible budget cuts for defense, diplomacy, and development.
Please join YPFP and our co-sponsor, America’s Impact, for the first installment of YPFP’s Campaign 2012 Series: a discussion about foreign policy in an election cycle with Heather Hurlburt, Executive Director of the National Security Network. Ms. Hurlburt, a veteran politico and frequent news commentator, will lead a discussion of these questions:
• How is the foreign policy landscape changing from 2008 to 2012?
• What do aspiring foreign policy leaders need to know about
presidential election cycles?
• What can we expect in this election and in the future?
• What role does U.S. politics play in the formation of U.S. foreign policy?
• How are other countries viewing the 2012 presidential election?
This will be the first event in a bi-partisan series that focuses on the foreign policy questions and challenges during the 2012 campaign cycle. Please join us for our next event in partnership with the Foreign Policy Initiative. Stay tuned for more details!
Before joining NSN, Hurlburt ran her own communications and strategy practice, working on global and political issues with political, entertainment, and educational leaders. From 1995-2001, Hurlburt served in the Clinton Administration as Special Assistant and Speechwriter to the President, speechwriter for Secretaries of State Albright and Christopher, and member of the State Department’s Policy Planning staff. She has also worked for the International Crisis Group, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and the Congressional Helsinki Commission. At the Helsinki Commission, she was a negotiating member of the US Delegation to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and participated extensively in election monitoring, democracy-building and post-conflict missions in Central and Eastern Europe. She appears frequently as a commentator in new and traditional media and is a regular guest on Robert Wright’s Blogging Heads TV. Her work has been published by the New York Times, Washington Post, Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, Guardian, POLITICO, New Republic and other outlets. Hurlburt holds a BA from Brown University, magna cum laude, and an MA from the George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs.
About America’s Impact
America’s Impact is a nonprofit community of professionals dedicated to making U.S. foreign policy a domestic priority. By supporting Congressional candidates who embrace pragmatic U.S. engagement with the world, we hope to build a more prosperous and secure America. For
more information, visit www.americasimpact.org.
2. The Iranian Nuclear Dilemma: Risk of an Iraq Sequel? Rayburn B339, February 21, 10:45 am-noon
A panel discussion featuring:
Hans Blix
Former Director General of the IAEA
Colin Kahl
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East
Robert Kelley
Former Chief Inspector for the IAEA in Iraq
Moderator: Trita Parsi
President, National Iranian American Council
Tuesday, February 21st, 2012
Rayburn House Office Building B-339
10:45 AM-12:00 PM
Light lunch will be provided
Seating is limited, RSVP required: rsvp@niacouncil.org or (202) 386-6325
Less than a decade after allegations of Iraqi weapons programs pitted the Bush Administration, the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the international community in a high stakes drama that ended in a devastating conflict and occupation, war again appears on the horizon—this time with Iran. But while fears of an Iranian aspiration for nuclear weapons have heightened the threat of another disastrous war, the Iranian nuclear dilemma is far from unresolvable.
Dr. Hans Blix served as Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency from 1981 to 1997. He was appointed to lead the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission from 2000 to 2003 and was at the center of IAEA inspection efforts in Iraq prior to the Operation Iraqi Freedom.
Dr. Colin Kahl served as U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East from 2009 to 2011, developing and implementing the U.S. Defense Department’s strategy regarding Iran. He recently published “Not Time to Attack Iran” in Foreign Affairs.
Robert Kelley served as a member of the IAEA Iraq Action Team in 2003 and was Chief Inspector for the IAEA in Iraq, South Africa, and Libya. He questioned the evidence presented in the November 2011 IAEA report on Iran, in a Bloomberg piece, “Nuclear Arms Charge Against Iran Is No Slam Dunk”.
Sponsored by the Ploughshares Fund
The views of the speakers are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of the National Iranian American Council.
3. Inside Egypt — The Path Forward, Gallup 901 F Street NW, February 22, 9-10 am
Over the past year, Egyptians have experienced a historic revolution, a surge in optimism, and a series of political and economic successes and challenges. Gallup scientifically measured Egyptians’ attitudes and hopes about the country’s politics and economics multiple times throughout this crucial year in the country’s history.
Gallup will share the key findings from these surveys at an in-depth briefing on February 22, 2012, in Washington, D.C. Gallup Senior Analyst Mohamed Younis will present the latest research on Egyptians’ views on the following topics:
- the coming presidential election
- Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel
- the Arab Spring and events in Syria and Libya
- the Egyptian military’s involvement in national politics
- Egyptians’ preferred path to civilian rule
Inside Egypt: The Path Forward will take place Wednesday, February 22, 2012 from 9:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. at The Gallup Building at 901 F Street, NW, Washington, D.C. Please note that the entrance to The Gallup Building is on 9th Street. Gallup will provide light refreshments. While there is no cost to attend, registration is required. For more information, please contact Krista Volzke at 402.938.6001.
Event Registration
| Date | Location | Price | Register By | Status |
| February 22, 2012 | Washington, D.C. | Free | February 17, 2012 | Open |
3. The Changing Relationship between Civil Society and the Military, February 22, 12-1:30 pm
Where: Creative Associates, 5301 Wisconsin Avenue, NW, Suite 700, Washington, D.C. (nearest metro: Friendship Heights)
Civil society organizations are taking on more active and crucial roles in both conflict and post-conflict environments to allow for local stakeholders to quickly build capacity for social services in the absence of civilian government authority, create the infrastructure needed to expedite economic activity, and serve as an important voice of local populace to military authorities.
How should our changing understanding of civil society influence how the U.S. military should interact with local CSOs? Can the military and civil society work together without blurring the lines between military and civilian operations? Some have argued that well-intended efforts by the military-civil society partnerships to rebuild schools and playgrounds or provide medical assistance risks militarizing civilian activities in the eyes of hostile forces.
How does the military currently determine which organizations are reliable social partners? How should these partnerships be funded? And how much assistance, guidance, or support should military authorities provide without undermining CSOs’ independence and credibility?
On February 22, SID-Washington’s Civil Society and Crisis, Conflict and Transition workgroups will cosponsor a brown bag lunch featuring Dr. Evelyn Farkas, Senior Advisor for Public-Private Partnerships to SACEUR, J.Randall Tift, Senior Advisor for World Vision, and Paul Miller, Foreign Aid Advisor, Catholic Relief Services, who will lead an open discussion of relationship building between military and civil society leaders in conflict environments. This is not intended to be a presentation of military policy but a collaborative exchange on how to improve conflict environment management methods by both sides.
Speakers:
J. Randall Tift, Senior Advisor, World Vision
Evelyn N. Farkas, Ph.D., Senior Advisor for Public-Private Relationships to the Supreme Allied Commander, Europe (SACEUR)
Paul Miller, Foreign Aid Advisor, Catholic Relief Services
Beverages and light snacks will be provided.
Take-out lunch options near Creative Associates:
Friendship Heights Metro, south exit: Booeymonger, Cosi’s.
Friendship Heights Metro, north exit (one block from Creative Associates): McDonalds and Subway in Mazza Galarie, Cheesecake Factory on Wisconsin Ave.
Location: Creative Associates, 5301 Wisconsin Avenue, NW, Suite 700, Washington, D.C.
For more information:
Moderated byBob Schieffer
Chief Washington Correspondent, CBS News;
Anchor, CBS News’ “Face the Nation”
Panelists:General James E. Cartwright, USMC (Ret.)
Former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff;
Harold Brown Chair in Defense Policy Studies, CSISAdmiral William J. Fallon, USN (Ret.)
Former Commander, U.S. Central Command
David Sanger
Chief Washington Correspondent, New York Times;
Author, The InheritanceThursday, February 23rd, 2012,
5:30 p.m. – 6:30 p.m.CSIS
1800 K St. NW,
Washington, DC 20006
Seating is limited. RSVP is required. Please RSVP (acceptances only) with your name and affiliation to schiefferseries@csis.org.
The TCU Schieffer School of Journalism and CSIS cosponsor a monthly series of dialogues hosted by award-winning journalist Bob Schieffer to discuss the most pressing foreign and domestic issues of the day.
5. The Arab Spring and International Law, February 23, GWU Law School, 12 noon
Event Information
Thursday, February 23, 2012, 12:00 PM
Jacob Burns Moot Courtroom, George Washington University Law School, Washington, D.C.
Event Link
The ABA Section of International Law, in co-sponsorship with the American Society of International Law and the George Washington University School of Law, presents the 2nd Annual “Live from the L”: The Office of the Legal Adviser,U.S. Department of State. This year”s discussion will focus on “The Arab Spring and International Law” and will be webcast. Speakers Include: Harold Hongju Koh Legal Adviser, U.S. Department of State Linda Jacobson Assistant Legal Adviser for African and Near Eastern Affairs Please Save the Date for this incredible event, Registration will follow in the near future.
Contact Information
Curry Wilson, Meeting Planner/Committee Programs
curry.wilson@americanbar.org
(202) 662-1672
6. The Battle for Power in Iran: Revolutionary Guard Corps vs. Clerics, Carnegie Endowment, February 24, 12:15-2 pm
| ContactJessica Bouletjboulet@ceip.org 202 939 2212 |
EVENT DETAILS
|
DATE |
Friday, February 24, 2012 |
|
TIME |
12:15 to 2:00 p.m. |
|
LOCATION |
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
|
SPEAKERS |
Mehrzad Boroujerdi, Mehdi Khalaji, Ali Alfoneh, and Karim Sadjadpour |
Is the Islamic Republic of Iran a theocratic regime led by clerics, or a military dictatorship ruled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps? Ahead of the country’s March 2012 parliamentary elections, noted experts Mehrzad Boroujerdi of Syracuse University, Mehdi Khalaji of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and Ali Alfoneh of the American Enterprise Institute will examine the evolving architecture of power in Tehran. Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour will moderate the discussion.
|
Speakers
Mehrzad Boroujerdi is associate professor of political science at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, where he also serves as the founding director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program. He is also the editor of the forthcoming Mirror for the Muslim Prince: Islam and Theory of Statecraft (Syracuse University Press) and is a nonresident scholar at the Middle East Institute.
Mehdi Khalaji is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, focusing on the politics of Iran and Shiite groups in the Middle East. Previously, Khalaji served on the editorial boards of two prominent Iranian periodicals, and he also worked for BBC Persian as a political analyst on Iranian affairs, later becoming a broadcaster for Radio Farda, the Persian-language service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
Ali Alfoneh is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where his research focuses on civil-military relations in Iran with a special focus on the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in the Islamic Republic. He was previously a research fellow at the Institute for Strategy at the Royal Danish Defence College.
Moderator
Karim Sadjadpour is an associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He was previously an analyst with the International Crisis Group based in Tehran and Washington. He is the author of Reading Khamenei: The World View of Iran’s Most Powerful Leader.
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Arab world: positive balance, still teetering
I need a scorecard to keep track of political change in the Arab world, so here it is:
- Egypt: New Egyptian parliament led by Muslim Brotherhood met for the first time yesterday. It needs to choose a commission to write the new constitution and call elections for president in June. Other powers are uncertain. Supreme Council of the Armed Forces still running things and holding on to perks and power.
- Yemen: President Saleh has left for the U.S. for medical treatment. I still find it incredible he would come here given the risks of a court deciding to hold him accountable for crimes for which he has immunity in Yemen. A single-candidate “election” February 22 is scheduled to elevate his vice president to the presidency. It is unclear to me what good this will do. Protests continue, his relatives cling to power and dissident parts of the armed forces control parts of the capital.
- Libya: Demonstrators in Benghazi Sunday attacked National Transitional Council offices in a protest over lack of transparency in deciding the electoral law to be used in May elections and in disbursing money. That’s the good news. Occasional strife among the armed militias is the bad news.
- Syria: The Arab League, much criticized because its human rights observers have failed to stop the violence, proposed a serious transition plan, which the Syrian National Council accepted and the Assad regime rejected. The Russians are saying that their patience has run out. A strong UN Security Council resolution would be a fine way to show that they mean what they say.
- Saudi Arabia: The Kingdom is cracking down hard on demonstrations in the majority Shia, oil-producing east.
- Bahrain: Despite the Bassiouni report‘s frankness about human rights abuses during last year’s repression of protests, the monarchy shows no sign of letting up and the Americans, anxious to keep the Fifth Fleet there, aren’t complaining too loudly.
- Morocco, Algeria, Jordan: All attempting various degrees of reform to forestall revolution. Largely succeeding so far. In forestalling that is. Reforms are modest.
So what once looked like a wave of Arab spring protest has now broken into rivulets moving in many different directions as they hit harder and softer obstacles. A few regimes are gone, but most are still holding on, in some cases just barely. Tunisia is the great success story, so far.
There are quite a few shoes that haven’t dropped yet, but likely will: Egypt’s economy is devastated, shoulder launched antiaircraft missiles are circulating in and beyond Libya, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula may well expand further in Yemen, sectarian war threatens in Syria. The new regimes, especially in Egypt, look likely to be tougher-minded towards Israel, even if domestic issues predominate in the short term. 2012 is likely to be even more challenging than 2011.
Still: the overall direction is clear enough. There will likely be more freedom of speech and expression in much of the Arab world once this tide goes out. There will also be more Islamists in power and fewer supposedly secular and pro-Western autocrats. There will likely be more political competition, though how long it will be permitted to last is uncertain. It is also unclear how much governance will improve, in particular whether accountability and transparency will triumph over cronyism and corruption, and whether human rights–especially minority rights–will be respected. The balance for the year is positive, but there are still a lot of things to sort out.
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Algeria: hoping for reform, not revolution
I missed parts of Algerian Foreign Minister Mourad Medelci’s presentation this morning at CSIS–urgent phone calls kept me out at the beginning and the end. But the overall tone was clear: Arab spring in Algeria will bring reform, not revolution.
The minister’s list of planned reforms included:
- the percentage of women in parliament will rise from the current 7% to 30%,
- judges (rather than the government) will run the spring elections,
- there are over 70 newspapers,
- radio and TV will be open to the private sector for investment in 2012,
- there will be increased transparency, economic and political freedom.
He was vague about reforms in the hydrocarbon sector and in the economy more generally. He also justified the rapid rise of imports as necessary to building infrastructure.
Asked about a possible Islamist victory in the elections, the minister said he was certain the military would respect the election results. He also noted that in accordance with the 2005 constitution, approved in a referendum, “those responsible Algeria’s tragedy” would not be allowed back into political life.
Big on non-intervention in internal affairs, the minister claimed Algeria is developing good relations with the new authorities in Libya and has improved relations with Morocco. On Syria, he noted that the Algerian who resigned as an Arab League human rights monitor came from civil society, not the government. Noting some cooperation from the Syrian government and some arming of the opposition, he thought the Arab League should continue its efforts with a view to a political resolution of the crisis.
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Best freebie next week
Game Changer: Policy and Politics
For a New Middle East
The Grand Hyatt Hotel
1000 H Street NW
Washington, DC 20001
Thursday, November 17, 2011
8:45am-5:30pm
Conference Schedule
8:45am-9:00am – Opening remarks
Ambassador (ret.) Wendy Chamberlin, Middle East Institute President
9:00am-10:30am – After the Arab Spring: Assessing US Policy in the Middle East
Steve Clemons, New America Foundation, The Atlantic
Ambassador (ret.) Daniel Kurtzer, Princeton University
Ambassador (ret.) Ron Schlicher, Former US Department of State
Tamara Cofman Wittes, Deputy Assist. Secretary of State-NEA
10:45am-12:15pm – The Road Ahead for Emerging Arab Democracies
Esraa Abdel Fattah, Egyptian Democratic Academy
Michele Dunne, Atlantic Council
Larry Diamond, Stanford University
Radwan Masmoudi, Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy
2:15pm-3:45 pm – Shifting Regional Power Dynamics in an Era of Change
Abdelkhaleq Abdalla, UAE University
Jamal Khashoggi, Al-Arab TV
Haim Malka, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Mohsen Milani, South Florida University
Paul Salem, Carnegie Middle East Center
4:00pm-5:30pm- Economic and Development Strategies for a Middle East in Transition
Adel Abdellatif, UN Development Programme
Odeh Aburdene, OAI Advisors
Iman Bibars, Ashoka/MENA
Ambassador William B. Taylor, US Department of State
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