Tag: Arab League
Peace picks next week
Too much this week, and too many things at the same time on the same days, but here are my best bets:
1. The Arab Spring, a Year On: How’s America Faring? WWC, 9:30-11 am April 23
Nathan Brown
Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, George Washington University and Former Fellow, Woodrow Wilson Center
Ellen Laipson
President and CEO, Stimson Center
Michael Singh
Managing Director, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Moderator
Aaron David Miller
Distinguished Scholar, Woodrow Wilson Center
Political changes in the Arab world have created a new landscape for the United States. Join us as four experts on the region and its politics examine the impact of these changes on hopes for democratization and Arab-Israeli peace, as well as the future of American influence and interests.
Last fall, the Pakistan government announced its intention to grant Most Favored Nation (MFN) status to India, replicating a decision made earlier in New Delhi and potentially laying the groundwork for greatly expanded trade between the two South Asian neighbors. While fundamental disagreements in the relationship remain unresolved, Islamabad’s MFN decision suggests that it is prepared to deepen trade ties even while progress on core political and security issues continues to lag. Optimists assert that increased trade can build constituencies in both countries for more cooperative bilateral relations between the two long-time rivals.
Recognizing the potential significance of trade in the Pakistan-India relationship, the Woodrow Wilson Center will host a one-day conference on April 23, 2012, that focuses on MFN as an important step toward expanding Pakistan-India commercial linkages. What further steps on both sides need to be taken to establish a fully operational MFN regime? What are the economic and businesses cases for and against expanding bilateral trade? What are the primary domestic obstacles in each country to increased Pakistan-India trade? What are the socio-economic arguments for enhanced bilateral trade ties, and who will most benefit?
RSVPs are required. Please RSVP by sending an email to asia@wilsoncenter.org
CONFERENCE AGENDA
9:45 Registration and coffee
10:00 Welcoming Remarks
Robert M. Hathaway, director, Asia Program, Woodrow Wilson Center
Munawar Z. Noorani, chairman, Fellowship Fund for Pakistan
10:15 Panel I: Moving forward on MFN
Ijaz Nabi, visiting professor, Lahore University of Management Sciences, and Pakistan country director, International Growth Center
A view from Pakistan
Arvind Virmani, executive director, International Monetary Fund, and affiliate professor and distinguished senior fellow, George Mason University
Perspectives from India
Ishrat Hussain, dean and director, Institute of Business Administration (Karachi)
Dissenting views
Chair: Robert M. Hathaway, director, Asia Program, Woodrow Wilson Center
12:30 Luncheon
1:00 Luncheon keynote address
Zafar Mahmood, commerce secretary, government of Pakistan
Chair: William B. Milam, senior scholar, Woodrow Wilson Center
2:00 Panel II: Broadening the debate
Amin Hashwani, founder, Pakistan-India CEOs Business Forum
Social issues, civil society, and security
Nisha Taneja, professor, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)
Non-tariff barriers, infrastructure deficiencies, and high transaction costs
Kalpana Kochhar, chief economist for South Asia, World Bank
Regional implications
Chair: Michael Kugelman, South Asia associate, Woodrow Wilson Center
4:15 Adjournment
RSVPs are required. Please RSVP by sending an email to asia@wilsoncenter.org
This conference has been organized by the Wilson Center’s Asia Program and Program on America and the Global Economy, along with the Fellowship Fund for Pakistan.
This conference has been made possible through the generosity of the Fellowship Fund for Pakistan.
the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution
Present:The Implications of Democracy and Dynasty:
The Foreign Policy Futures of the Two Koreas
April 24, 2012
2pm – 3:30pm
Kenney Auditorium
1740 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20036
Featuring:
Dr. Sang Yoon Ma
History and Public Policy Scholar, Woodrow Wilson International Center
Associate Professor, School of International Studies at the Catholic University of Korea
Dr. Alexandre Mansourov
Visiting Scholar, US-Korea Institute at SAIS
With Introduction by:
Dr. Richard C. Bush
Director and Senior Fellow
Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, The Brookings Institution
Moderated by:
Dr. Jae H. Ku
Director, US-Korea Institute at SAIS
On April 11, 2012, South Korea’s ruling conservative party scored an unexpected victory in the 2012 National Assembly elections while a series of political events in North Korea worked to solidify the succession of Kim Jong Un. Please join Dr. Sang Yoon Ma and Dr. Alexandre Mansourov in discussing the results of these events and their policy implications for US-ROK relations, and North Korea’s foreign policy strategies.
5. A Conversation with Turkey’s Kurdish Leadership, Brookings, 3-4:30 pm April 24
When
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
3:00 PM to 4:30 PM
Where
Saul/Zilkha Rooms
The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC
Map
Participants
Introduction and Moderator
Ömer Taşpınar
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Featured Speakers
Selahattin Demirtaş
Co-Chairman
Peace and Democracy Party (BDP)
Ahmet Türk
Member of Turkish Parliament
Co-chair of the Democratic Society Congress (DTK)
6. (Re)Building an Effective Central Government in Afghanistan and Iraq, RTI International, 12 noon April 25
When: Wednesday, April 25, 2012, 12:00 p.m. – 2:00 p.m.
Where: RTI International, 701 13th Street, NW, Suite 750, Washington, D.C.
Please join the SID-Washington Governance, Corruption & Rule of Law Workgroup for a panel discussion examining state-building in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The sustainability of governance reforms in Afghanistan and Iraq is a key concern for both the US and its partners, and for citizens of those countries. What has been learned about what works to build, or rebuild, effective government? What challenges remain to be addressed? SID-Washington’s Governance, Corruption, and Rule of Law Workgroup will host a discussion with Larry Cooley, President, Management Systems International, to explore answers to these questions.
Speakers:
Larry Cooley, President, Management Systems International (MSI)
Workgroup Co-Chairs
Derick Brinkerhoff, Distinguished Fellow, International Public Management, RTI International
Tomas Bridle, Technical Area Manager, Responsive Government Institutions, Economic and Democratic Governance, DAI
Please bring your lunch to enjoy during the event.
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Syria can get worse
NATO preparations for military intervention in Syria are again in the news. The Obama Administration is looking for Plan B. Even my former colleagues at US Institute of Peace are calling for suppression of Syrian air defenses. That’s spelled W-A-R.
I am feeling the need to repeat what I’ve said before: half measures won’t work and could make things worse. If removal of Bashar al Assad from power is your objective, and you propose to achieve it by military means, don’t trick yourself into thinking it will necessarily be easy or quick. Certainly a humanitarian corridor is not an obvious or direct means of getting rid of Bashar. It is a target-rich environment that is only safe if military force makes it so.
It would be folly for NATO to waste its resources on such a half-baked non-solution. That is certainly one of the lessons of the Libya experience, when a humanitarian intervention had to refocus on Qaddafi in order to bring about the desired, but not stated, result.
If you want Bashar al Assad out, the thing to do is take him out. A massive attack on Syria’s command and control facilities would force him underground–as a lesser effort eventually did to Qaddafi–and all but guarantee that the regime changes, though in which direction is unpredictable. To control that, you’ve got to put boots on the ground. But you will also need to write off any prospect of Russian or Chinese support for action against Iran’s nuclear facilities, which are certainly a greater threat to U.S. national security than Bashar al Assad.
Arming the opposition is another option. There is lots of mumbling from Senators McCain and Lieberman about how the Free Syria Army (FSA) hasn’t gotten any help from anyone and are running out of ammo. The French call that de la blague. The Turkish and Iraqi borders have seen lots of arms flowing. Others want to manage the process despite the chaotic conditions. The FSA is not a threat to the Syrian regime in the short-term. It is an insurgency that will be difficult to defeat entirely but offers little immediate prospect of displacing Bashar al Assad, whose army is stronger than the Libyan one and notably more loyal.
A long, violent, drawn-out and increasingly sectarian conflict in Syria is not a good outcome for the United States. I am second to none in wishing Bashar al Assad gone from a country in which I studied Arabic and enjoyed remarkable hospitality from people who have suffered a half century of privation, economic and political. Yes, we should certainly support the on-the-ground opposition and do everything possible to protect their right to protest and determine their own political future.
But the best bet for now is to play out Annan plan and the UN observer scenario for what it is worth: either it will lead to a serious reduction in violence, and I hope a corresponding increase in peaceful protest, or the observers will give up like the Arab League observers before them and abandon the field. If the former, we’ll all be able to celebrate, as nonviolent protest will provide by far the best foundation for a successful transition to something like democracy. If the latter, we should not be surprised to find that things get worse, much worse, as they did after the Arab League observers withdrew.
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What good are UN observers?
That was my title for a piece The Guardian published this morning as UN observers in Syria must show courage in their actions and words:
By insisting on moving freely, and reporting what they see, the observers can deter violence and help to restore stability in Syria
As Kofi Annan rushes to deploy the first 30 UN observers to Syria, it is important to ask what good they might do. How can a few dozen unarmed soldiers monitor a ceasefire in a country of more than 22 million? Even at their anticipated full strength of 250, what can they really accomplish? Won’t government minders lead them around by the nose, showing them only what President Bashar al-Assad wants them to see? How can they possibly understand what is going on in a situation that is chaotic at best, homicidal at worst?
These doubts are well-founded, especially in today’s Syria. Observers are most useful where there is a peace to keep. If both sides in a conflict conclude that they cannot make further gains by fighting, then observers can increase mutual confidence in a ceasefire and reduce the likelihood of misunderstandings or miscommunications leading to violence.
Those conditions do not exist today in much of Syria, where the government is still purposefully attacking its own population. Violence has declined in some places, but fighting continues in others. The government has already made it clear it wants the observers to go where and when it is safe, as determined by Damascus. On Sunday, Assad’s spokeswoman said: “Syria cannot be responsible for the security of these observers unless it co-ordinates and participates in all steps on the ground.” This is as much threat as warning. The government security forces have always tried to focus on one major community at a time. Damascus will try to take the observers to those communities where relative peace prevails.
To be effective in this situation, the observers will need to take a proactive stance, reaching out to the Syrian opposition, insisting on going where they want when they want, and reporting amply on what they find. This takes courage. The UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, is providing the top cover. “It is the Syrian government’s responsibility to guarantee freedom of access, freedom of movement within the country,” he said. The observers will need to focus their attention on the violence, report on its origins and course, and demand that it stop.
Liaison with the opposition, while desirable, is also problematic. Anyone the UN observers contact may be tracked and monitored by the Syrian security forces. Arbitrary detention, torture and extrajudicial killings are common in Assad’s Syria. Some courageous individuals will speak up no matter what. Others, who are prepared to talk with the observers, will need to move quickly to protect themselves thereafter, changing residences, cell phones and even identities. This will make it difficult for the observers to maintain continuity.
Despite these very real problems, the presence and persistence of the observers can deter violence and encourage non-violent protest. The opposition will become less bold in provoking the security forces, fearing provocations will be visible internationally. Peaceful demonstrations, which are already common, will become larger and more frequent. The security forces will gradually realise that the observers cannot be intimidated and that they will return to check and re-check what is going on, reporting their findings in ways that will embarrass anyone who is continuing the violence. The commanders may begin to behave with less abandon.
The UN observers, in addition to doing whatever they can to report on violations of the Annan plan, need to keep in mind their own broader significance. They are the living symbols of international community engagement, the only token so far of the UN security council’s commitment to restoring peace and stability in Syria. They will need to try to maintain a good working relationship with the Syrian government, but they also have to insist on their own independence. This includes the freedom to meet with the Syrian and foreign media and report fully what they have found.
The ceasefire, already fraying, cannot, however, succeed for long on its own. The UN security council resolution requires humanitarian and media access as well as the start of a political dialogue. This is where Annan’s job gets really hard. Even though the security council was silent on the future of Assad, he has to be convinced to step aside, because there can be no serious transition if he remains in place. The ceasefire can only be a bridge to a broader political solution, not an end in itself.
If the observers come to the conclusion that current conditions do not permit them to do their work effectively, or if they determine that one side or the other is primarily responsible for the violence and mayhem, then they need to say so plainly. Failure is a possibility, but even failure can sometimes have a positive impact. The Arab League observers, whose mission failed during the winter, played a useful role despite their pro-Assad Sudanese leader. They talked with the opposition, their presence encouraged peaceful demonstrations, some reported accurately on what was going on, and others resigned in protest over the restrictions the Syrian government put on them. In the end, it was the withdrawal of the Arab League mission that escalated the Syrian situation to the UN and ultimately forced the security council to act.
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Peace picks this week
1. What’s Next? Mali in the Aftermath of the March 22 Coup d’Etat, SAIS, 12:30-2 pm April 16
In collaboration with Eastern Congo Initiative (ECI) and a coalition of organizations concerned with the future of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), The Wilson Center’s Africa Program invites you to an event entitled “Military Reform in the Democratic Republic of Congo”. This discussion will center on a report entitled Taking a Stand on Security Sector Reform, which was researched, written and signed by dozens of international groups from the US, EU and the DRC.
The report discusses the symptoms, causes and possible solutions to the lack of security and the violation of human rights in the country. “An effective security sector – organized, resourced, trained and vetted – is essential to solving problems from recruitment of child soldiers, internal displacement, to economic growth or the trade in conflict minerals” says the report. It concludes that the main reason for the failure of army reform in DRC is a lack of political will from parts of the Congolese government coupled with the lack of strong commitment and coordination from the international community.
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Director, Africa Program and Project on Leadership and Building State Capacity
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Eastern Congo Initiative Fellow
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Karl Wycoff //Deputy Assistant Secretary, United States Department of State
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Cindy McCain //Founding Member, Eastern Congo Initiative
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Network for Security Sector Reform and Justice (RRSSJ)
To RSVP for this event kindly send an email to Africa@wilsoncenter.org.
3. Conflict and Stabilization Operations: A Conversation with U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Rick Barton, Brookings, 10-11 am April 17
Where
Saul/Zilkha Rooms
The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC
Map
On April 17, Global Economy and Development at Brookings will host Ambassador Rick Barton, the newly confirmed assistant secretary of state for Conflict and Stabilization Operations. Assistant Secretary Barton will discuss his vision for the new bureau and the priorities on his agenda. Brookings Fellow Noam Unger will provide introductory remarks and moderate the discussion.
After the program, Assistant Secretary Barton will take audience questions.
Participants
Featured Speaker
Rick Barton
Assistant Secretary of State for Conflict and Stabilization Operations
U.S. Department of State
4. World Military Spending: Recent Trends, Stimson, 12-1:30 April 17
Place: SIPRI North America, 1111 19th St. NW, 12th floor, Washington DC 20036
RSVP: Please click here.
The following key points and questions will be discussed by a panel of experts:
- Presentation of the newly-released SIPRI figures for world military expenditures in 2011, outlining some of the key figures and trends
- How is the global financial crisis impacting world military spending?
- Do military spending trends suggest a shift in the global balance of power?
- Can military expenditures be cut (or cut further) to redirect spending to other priorities? What are the obstacles to this in different countries and regions?
- As the US seeks to reduce its budget deficit, how far should the military budget be cut?
- What are the reasons for increasing military spending by some regional powers? Does this create a danger of regional arms races?
Speakers
- Dr. Sam Perlo-Freeman, Head of Military Expenditure Project, SIPRI
- Dr. Gordon Adams, Distinguished Fellow – Budgeting for Foreign Affairs and Defense, Stimson Center
- Dr. Nora Bensahel, Deputy Director of Studies and Senior Fellows, Center for a New American Security
Moderator: Dr. Chantal de Jonge Oudraat, Executive Director, SIPRI North America
If you have any questions, please contact Masha Keller at sipri-na@sipri.org.
5. The Arab Awakening: One Year Later, SAIS, 1740 MA, 12-2:30 pm April 18
The Center for Transatlantic Relations at Johns Hopkins University, SAIS, along with the French Embassy to the United States and the Alliance française
invite you to
a French Embassy Rendez-vous
The Arab Awakening:
One Year Later
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
12:00 pm–2:30 pm
Kenney Auditorium
1740 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
with
Keynote Speaker
His Excellency François Delattre
Ambassador of France to the United States of America
and
His Excellency Mohamed Salah Tekaya
Ambassador of Tunisia to the United States of America
Remarks about Tunisia: progress, opportunities and challenges since the revolution
The Arab awakening and the rapidity of the events which are irreversibly altering the face of the Middle East have unequivocally called into question the ability of political analyses to provide the necessary tools for understanding the global scenario and its underlying trends, especially when their basic assumptions are openly challenged. Civil society, left to itself after the revolution, has been confronted with several constitutional, institutional and socio-economic issues. One year after the beginning of the revolution, we will question the challenges raised by the democratic aspiration and faced by the new regimes.
Welcoming Remarks: Aude Jehan, French Embassy Fellow, Center for Transatlantic Relations
Moderator: Ambassador Kurt Volker, Senior Fellow, Center for Transatlantic Relations
Panelists: Suzanne Maloney, Brookings Institute, The implications of the Arab awakening for the regional balance of power
Ömer Taşpınar, SAIS and Brookings Institute, Europe’s Approach to the Arab awakening and Turkey
Julie Taylor, RAND, The Arab Awakening: A Double-edged Sword for Moderate Islamists
Manal Omar, U.S. Institute of Peace, The role of Women in post-revolution societies
A light reception will follow with the kind support of Paul’s Bakery
6. The Islamists Are Coming: Who They Really Are, WWC, 12:30-2 pm April 18
To attend this event, please send an RSVP to maria-stella.gatzoulis@wilsoncenter.org
The Islamists Are Coming is the first book to survey the rise of Islamist groups in the wake of the Arab Spring. Often lumped together, the more than 50 Islamist parties with millions of followers now constitute a whole new spectrum—separate from either militants or secular parties. They will shape the new order in the world’s most volatile region, more than any other political bloc, yet they have diverse goals and different constituencies. Sometimes they are even rivals.
In this book, Robin Wright offers an overview and 10 experts identify Islamists in Algeria, Egypt (two chapters), Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, the Palestinian territories, Syria, and Tunisia. Each chapter is designed to help both a general audience and specialists.
A book website at www.theislamistsarecoming.com, to launch on the day of the event, will provide updates and an ongoing conversation among these and other experts.
The National Conversation at the Woodrow Wilson Center series provides a safe political space for deep dialogue and informed discussion of the most significant problems and challenges facing the nation and the world.
To attend this event, please send an RSVP to maria-stella.gatzoulis@wilsoncenter.org.
Location:
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Robin Wright//USIP-Wilson Center Distinguished ScholarJournalist and Author of seven books, most recently “Rock the Casbah: Rage and Rebellion Across the Islamic World”
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Nathan J Brown//FellowProfessor of Political Science and International Affairs, George Washington University
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Les Campbell //Senior Associate & Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa, National Democratic Institute
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Samer S. Shehata//FellowAssistant Professor of Arab Politics, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
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Jane Harman//Director, President, and CEO
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Steve Inskeep//ModeratorHost, Morning Edition on National Public Radio
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Make sure time is not on his side
President Obama issued a statement Friday (that’s when we say things we don’t want too widely noticed) marking the 18th anniversary of the Rwandan genocide:
…we pause to reflect with horror and sadness on the 100 days in 1994 when 800,000 people lost their lives. The specter of this slaughter of mothers, fathers, sons, and daughters haunts us still, and reminds the nations of the world of our shared responsibility to do all we can to protect civilians and to ensure that evil of this magnitude never happens again.
The irony here should not be lost: we are in the midst of a much slower and less bloody but still brutal repression of civilian dissent in Syria, where the toll amounts to something over 10,000 during the past year. No one has called it genocide, but it is certainly what the trade knows as politicide: an effort to murder political opponents, especially of the Sunni Islamist persuasion, into submission. Human Rights Watch reports today on extrajudicial executions.
I can imagine the discussion among the White House staff. Some will have argued: let’s get the President to put out a statement on Rwanda that is also applicable to Syria today. Maybe that will get some action. Others will have added that phrase at the end about the magnitude of the evil, hoping to avoid the obvious implication that we really ought to do something to stop Bashar al Assad. The result is a statement that sounds vigorous but implies nothing.
Don’t get me wrong: I understand full well why the White House would hesitate to take military action in Syria. But we should be asking ourselves if we are doing everything in our power short of military force to end Bashar’s brutal crackdown as soon as possible. The Obama Administration will claim it is doing its best. Here is a checklist to make sure:
1. Provide financial, communications and intelligence support to the Syrian opposition provided it unifies and keeps its efforts as peaceful as possible. This should include real-time intelligence on the operations of the Syrian army, which is necessary for protection of civilians.
2. Encourage the opposition to flesh out its National Covenant with more specific provisions to protect minorities and regime loyalists from revenge killing should Bashar al Assad step aside.
3. Make sure sanctions are implemented strictly not only by the United States but also by other countries , especially members of the Arab League. Iraq, which has not signed up for them so far as I can tell, should be high on this list. Syrian oil reportedly traversed the Suez Canal recently, contravening sanctions.
4. Use our significant information operations capabilities to ensure that Syria’s dissident voices are heard throughout the country and that the Syrian military and business elite are encouraged to defect from the regime. If we have begun such efforts, they are a deep, dark secret.
5. Work diplomatically to bring the Russians around to the view that their interests in port access and arms sales will be served best by abandoning Bashar. This we are surely doing, but are we ready to offer Moscow a serious quid pro quo?
6. Get Kofi Annan to beef up his request for ceasefire observers to 1000 and help him deploy them quickly, with the capability to move quickly around the country and communicate instantaneously from wherever they are.
7. If the ceasefire fails to take hold by April 15, as now seems likely, return to the UN Security Council to seek a resolution condemning the Assad regime, calling for Bashar to step aside and instituting an arms embargo against the regime.
8. Seek to block arms and money transfers from Iran to Syria, even if there are no formal multilateral restrictions.
9. Prepare for a major post-conflict Arab League peacekeeping mission, which will be necessary to separate the Syrian army and the Free Syria Army and to protect minorities, in particular Allawis, Druze, Christians and others who have supported the Assad regime.
I doubt any of this will work quickly. Bashar al Assad feels he is winning, has started to back away from the Annan ceasefire supposed to go into effect this week, and no doubt hopes to restore his authority, as his father managed to do after killing tens of thousands in Hama in 1982. Splits in the opposition, including a Kurdish walkout, will give him renewed confidence. But the Syrian regime is on the economic ropes and will not be able to eliminate a resistance that is now widespread and broadly (but not universally) supported by the population. We need to hang tough for the long haul, as we did in Burma, making sure time is not on Bashar al Assad’s side.
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Peace picks this week
Hard to know what to say about CSIS’s Global Security Forum 2012, but I’ve listed at least one session below. Lots of other events too:
1. Panel Discussion on Arab Countries in Transition, Stimson, 10-11:30 April 9
| Date | Monday, April 9 |
| Time | 10 – 11:30am |
| Location | Stimson |
Stimson Center, Marshall Foundation, and Safadi Foundation USA
are pleased to announce a panel discussion on
ARAB COUNTRIES IN TRANSITION:
An Update on International Support
One Year after the Deauville Partnership
As international leaders prepare to gather next month for the U.S.-hosted G8 summit in Camp David, Arab nations in transition continue to face significant economic challenges. The Deauville Partnership launched in France at the previous G8 summit in May 2011, established a political and economic framework to support the historic transitions launched by the “Arab Spring.” What progress has been made since then? How do G8 members plan to address the deepening economic challenges? What is the role of international financial institutions? What are the prospects for this initiative to evolve into a sustainable partnership between the West and the Arab world that ensures the region’s successful transition?
Panelists will discuss the latest initiatives and highlight areas that are in need of greater support.
Featuring:
Masood Ahmed, Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, International Monetary Fund;
Inger Andersen (invited), Vice-President, Middle East and North Africa, World Bank;
Dr. Peter Howard, Coordinator for the Deauville Partnership, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, US Department of State; and
Mona Yacoubian, (Moderator), Director, Pathways to Progress: Peace, Prosperity, and Change in the Middle East Project at the Stimson Center.
Click here to RSVP
or
follow the event live on Twitter at @StimsonCenter
2. Promise and Peril in Nigeria: Implications for U.S. Engagement, CSIS 3-4:30 pm April 9
3. Integrating Official and Crowdsourced Crisis Information, WWC, 4-5 pm April 9
Crowdsourcing crisis information gathered via the Internet is not new to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Since 1999, the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program has been generating Community Internet Intensity Maps (CIIMs) using geographic data submitted to the Did You Feel It? website. This open call to the public is a notable example of how USGS facilitates the sharing of critical crisis information by members of the public not only to provide valuable data for earthquake research at USGS, but also to provide immediate situational awareness for emergency management stakeholders. CIIM is one of the early instances of “crowdsourcing,” consciously developed long before the coining of this term by Jeff Howe in 2006.
New opportunities and challenges are emerging as members of the public use pervasive information and communication technologies, including social media and social networking sites (e.g., Twitter, Facebook, and user-generated maps), to help in the immediate aftermath of major disasters. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program has already begun to investigate how to harness crisis data from the crowd via social media sites like Twitter to rapidly detect and characterize earthquake effects. However, as we increasingly have access to ever-growing streams of content online, how can crisis data from government agencies, satellite imagery companies, volunteer technical communities, disaster-affected populations, and the general public be integrated together to better facilitate emergency response, recovery, and mitigation efforts?
In this talk, Dr. Sophia B. Liu will discuss the opportunities and challenges with integrating official and crowdsourced crisis information based on the response to the 2010 Haiti earthquake and what has happened since this catastrophe, which was the tipping point for crowdsourcing and social media use in the crisis domain. Specifically, Dr. Liu will unpack the different interface challenges at the social, technological, organizational, and political levels. She will also discuss the meaning of “socially distributed curation” and its application to information management in the emergency domain.
About the Speaker
Sophia B. Liu, PhD is currently a Mendenhall Postdoctoral research fellow at the U.S. Geological Survey investigating crowdsourced geographic information around earthquakes. She works with Paul Earle at the National Earthquake Information Center in Golden, Colorado as well as Barbara Poore in Saint Petersburg, Florida through the National Geospatial Program and the Core Science Systems strategy. Specifically, Dr. Liu conducts research on the integration of official and crowdsourced geographic information pertaining to earthquakes. In May 2011, she received her PhD from University of Colorado, Boulder (CU) in the Technology, Media and Society interdisciplinary program at the Alliance for Technology, Learning and Society (ATLAS) Institute. In 2006, Dr. Liu was awarded a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship. Her graduate advisor was Professor Leysia Palen in the Department of Computer Science at CU directing Project EPIC (Empowering the Public with Information in Crisis) and the Connectivity Lab, where we conducted research in the emerging area of Crisis Informatics beginning in 2005 working at the intersection of social, technical, and informational aspects of crises and disasters. Her dissertation research focused on the use of social media pertaining to historically significant crises and the emergence of socially-distributed curatorial practices as a way of managing crisis information in the social media landscape. She has given numerous invited talks and guest lectures on the emerging use of social media during mass emergencies and historic disasters.https://profile.usgs.gov/sophialiu
After the September 11, 2001, attacks, Pakistan and the United States entered into a new counterterrorism alliance. Yet ever since then, the relationship between the two nations has been a rocky one. Today, this marriage of convenience seems to be approaching a breaking point. Can the troubled partnership be saved? Or will it dissolve in a messy divorce, as has happened in the past? Zahid Hussain, an award-winning Pakistani journalist and writer currently serving as the Wilson Center’s Pakistan Scholar, will address these and related questions in a discussion about one of the world’s most fraught bilateral relationships.
This event is organized by the Wilson Center’s Asia Program, and co-sponsored with the Middle East Program and International Security Studies.
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Zahid Hussain//Pakistan ScholarPakistan Correspondent for The Wall Street Journal and The Times of London.
5. The Transformation of Political Islam in The Arab Awakening: Who Are the Major Players? Rayburn, 9:30 am April 11
The Middle East Policy Council invites you and your colleagues to our 68th Capitol Hill Conference. Live streaming of this event will begin at approximately 9:30am EST on Wednesday, April 11th and conclude around noon. A questions and answers session will be held at the end of the proceedings. Refreshments will be served.
April 11, 2011. 9:30am – Noon
Rayburn House Office Building, Gold Room (Room 2168)
RSVP Acceptances only: (202) 296-6767 or info@mepc.org
Speakers:
John O. VollProfessor, Georgetown; Associate Director, Prince Alwaleed bin Talal Center for
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Steven KullDirector, Program on International Policy Attitudes; Senior Research Scholar, University of Maryland |
Alexis ArieffAnalyst, Congressional Research Service |
Peter MandavilleDirector, Ali Vural Ak Center for Global Islamic Studies, George Mason University |
Moderator:
Thomas R. Mattair
Executive Director, Middle East Policy Council
6. The Regional Implications of Shia-Sunni Sectarian Conflict In Middle East and South Asia, Georgetown University, 12:30 pm April 11
and
invite you to:
“The Regional Implications of Shia-Sunni Sectarian Conflict In Middle East and South Asia”
________________________
featuring
Vali Nasr
_______________________________________________
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
12:30pm – ICC 270
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Over the past decade sectarianism has emerged as a major fault line in Middle east politics. Tensions between Shias and Sunnis have found new meaning in light of the Arab uprisings of the past year to define regional rivalries from the Levant to the Persian Gulf. The conflict in Syria, tensions in Bahrain, Lebanon and Yemen, simmering violence in Iraq and the larger regional rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia all tell of the growing importance of the sectarian divide.
Vali Nasr is Professor of International Politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy of Tufts University, Senior Fellow at Foreign Policy at Brookings Institution, and a columnist at Bloomberg View. He served as Senior Advisor to U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Ambassador Richard Holbrooke between 2009 and 2011. He is the author of Forces of Fortune: The Rise of a New Middle Class and How it Will Change Our World (Free Press, 2009); The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam will Shape the Future (W.W. Norton, 2006); and Democracy in Iran: History and the Quest for Liberty (Oxford University Press, 2006); as well as a number of other books and numerous articles in academic journals and encyclopedias. He is a Carnegie Scholar for 2006. He written for New York Times, Foreign Affairs, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal,and The Washington Post, and has provided frequent expert commentary to media including CNN, National Public Radio, Newshour, Charlie Rose Show, Meet the Press, the Daily Show with Jon Stewart, The Colbert Report. He received his BA from Tufts University in International Relations, MALD from the Fletcher School of Law in and Diplomacy, and his PhD from MIT in political science in 1991.
Seating is limited.
Lunch will be served.
For directions to the Center and information on parking, please visit: http://acmcu.georgetown.edu/about/contact/
7. Global Security Forum 2012: Toward 2014: Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the U.S. Role in the Region, CSIS, 11-12:15 April 11
The Global Security Forum 2012 is a forum on the top challenges facing U.S. and global security. In the coming years, U.S. Special Operations Forces are poised to take on new responsibilities and missions as they transition into a role as a truly “global force.” The panel will discuss the implications of this shift, the future of SOF, and proposed changes to the governing structure of these elite forces.
Toward 2014: Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the U.S. Role in the Region
Anthony H. Cordesman,
Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, CSIS
Kori Schake,
Research Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Amb. Ronald E. Neumann,
Former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan
Moderator:
Robert Lamb,
Senior fellow and director of the Program on Crisis, Conflict, and Cooperation at CSIS
8. Azeris of Iran: Their Condition, Status and Future Prospects, SAIS, 5:30-7 pm April 11
The Middle East Institute is proud to host Amb. Jeffrey Feltman, Amb. Feisal Istrabadi, and Daniel Serwer for a discussion about the state of U.S.-Iraqi relations in the wake of the U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq in December 2011. Panelists will explore both the challenges and opportunities presented by the transition of the U.S.-Iraqi partnership from a mainly military to a diplomatic one. What sort of working relationship is emerging between the U.S. and Iraqi governments? What kind of cooperation is taking place in the areas of domestic and regional security, diplomacy, trade, energy, and reform? How has the troop drawdown affected U.S. influence in Iraq and the region in general? Feltman, Istrabadi and Serwer will explore strategies and policies resulting from the new bilateral dynamics.
Bios: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman has served as assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs since 2009. A career member of the Foreign Service since 1986, Ambassador Feltman served as principal deputy assistant secretary in the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs from February 2008 to his present assignment, serving concurrently as acting assistant secretary of state for the Bureau since December 18, 2008. From July 2004 to January 2008, Ambassador Feltman served as the U.S. ambassador to the Republic of Lebanon. Prior to his assignment in Lebanon he headed the Coalition Provisional Authority’s office in the Irbil province of Iraq, serving simultaneously as deputy regional coordinator for the CPA’s northern area. From 2001 until 2003, Ambassador Feltman served at the U.S. consulate-general in Jerusalem, first as deputy principal officer and then as acting principal officer. Other postings include Tunisia and Israel.
Ambassador Feisal Istrabadi served as deputy permanent representative for Iraq at the United Nations from 2004 to 2007. He is currently the founding director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East at Indiana University-Bloomington where he is also University Scholar in International Law and Diplomacy. Prior to his diplomatic appointment, Ambassador Istrabadi served as a legal adviser to the Iraqi Minister for Foreign Affairs during the negotiations for United Nations Security Council resolution 1546 of June 8, 2004, which recognized Iraq’s reassertion of its sovereignty. He was also principal legal drafter of Iraq’s interim constitution, the Law of Administration of the State of Iraq for the Transitional Period, and principal author of its Bill of Fundamental Rights. Before contributing to the reconstruction of Iraq, Amb. Istrabadi was a practicing trial lawyer in the United States for 15 years.
Daniel Serwer is a scholar at the Middle East Institute as well as a senior research professor of conflict management and a senior fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Formerly vice president for Centers of Peacebuilding Innovation at the United States Institute of Peace (2009-10), he led teams there working on rule of law, religion, economics, media, technology, security sector governance, and gender. He was also vice president for peace and stability operations at USIP (1998-2009), where he led its peacebuilding work in Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan and the Balkans. Serwer has worked on preventing inter-ethnic and sectarian conflict in Iraq and has facilitated dialogue between Serbs and Albanians in the Balkans. In 2006, he served as executive director of the Hamilton/Baker Iraq Study Group.
Moderator: Charles Dunne is the director for Middle East and North Africa Programs at Freedom House and a scholar at the Middle East Institute. He spent 24 years as a diplomat in the U.S. Foreign Service, serving overseas in Cairo, Jerusalem, and Madras, India. In addition, he was director for Iraq at the National Security Council from 2005-2007 and a foreign policy adviser to the director for Strategic Plans and Policy at the Joint Staff in the Pentagon (2007-2008).
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