Tag: artificial intelligence
A stronger American still fumbles
President Biden made a farewell appearance at the State Department yesterday. As a former Foreign Service officer, I’m of course delighted that he did this. It is especially important and timely because the Department now faces Donald Trump’s threat of loyalty tests and mass firings.
Biden’s understandably directed his remarks at justifying what his Administration has done on foreign policy. So how did he really do?
The bar was low
Certainly Biden can justifiably claim to have strengthened America’s alliances. The bar was low. Both in Europe and Asia the first Trump Administration had raised doubts. Allies could not depend on Washington’s commitment to fulfill its mutual defense obligations. Biden’s claim that compared to four years ago America is stronger because of renewed and expanded alliances is true. He is also correct in claiming he has not gone to war to make it happen.
The extraordinary strength of the American economy is an important dimension of this strength. Voters decided the election in part on the issue of inflation. But the Fed has largely tamed that and growth has been strong throughout. Manufacturing is booming, including vital semi-conductor production. Investment in non-carbon energy sources has soared. The defense industrial based is expanding.
Biden is also correct in asserting that America’s antagonists are worse off. Russia has failed to take Ukraine because of the US effort to gather support for Kyiv. Iran and its allies in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria are weaker. Only the Houthis in Yemen are arguably stronger than four years ago.
China is facing serious domestic economic and demographic challenges. But I don’t know why Biden claims it will never surpass the US. On a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis, it already has, though obviously per capita GDP in China remains much lower.
Some claims gloss over big problems
Biden is rightly proud that there is no longer war in Afghanistan, but he glosses over the chaotic withdrawal. He also doesn’t mention the failure of the Taliban to keep its commitments.
He vaunts progress on climate change, but without acknowledging that the goal of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees centigrade will not be met.
Biden talks about infrastructure in Africa. But not about its turn away from democracy, civil wars in Sudan and Ethiopia, and the unresolved conflict in Libya.
He urges that Iran never be allowed to “fire” a nuclear weapon. That is a significant retreat from the position that Iran should never be allowed to have one.
Biden mentions the impending Hamas/Israel ceasefire. But he says nothing about Israel’s criminal conduct of the war in Gaza. Nor does he blame Israel’s right-wing government for the long delay in reaching a deal.
Biden’s legacy
At the end, Biden seeks to bequeath three priorities to Trump: artificial intelligence, climate change, and democracy. He no doubt knows that Trump isn’t going to take the advice on climate or democracy. He might on artificial intelligence, as his Silicon Valley tycoons will want him to.
Sad to say, Biden’s legacy will lie in other areas. Fearful of nuclear conflict with Russia, he failed to give Ukraine all the support it needs to defeat Russia. He was reluctant to rein in Israel for more than a year of the Gaza war. He failed to stop or reverse the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs. America is stronger than it was four years ago, but it has not always used that strength to good advantage.
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Here is something AI can do for you
An Italian friend, Vincenzo Marzetti, runs a start up called Zero In. He offered to generate using AI a summary of my recent book, Strengthening International Regimes. He also suggested a video for marketing purposes.
While the risks of AI are all too apparent, this product provides a clear illustration of some benefits. I didn’t need to spend hours in a studio recording the video. Vincenzo used an unrelated sample of me I found on Youtube to generate my image and voice. The result sounds much like me, even if I am not usually so still-headed.
Zero In is already selling to companies that generate videos of this sort to conserve on high-priced executive time. But high priced authors might also like to conserve on time. And authors who don’t want to bother with the marketing side. The AI summary of my book was particularly impressive. I needed to do little editing.
The problem of course is that bad actors can use this technology for nefarious purposes, especially in an election year. But that is even true of my phone number, which is getting numerous calls these days from non-English speaking scammers. We somehow need to enable the benefits of AI while dis-incentivizing the abuses and risks.
That is not going to be easy, as only people who understand the technology will be able to anticipate the problems and optimize the response. I argue in my book that an “epistemic community” engaging in what Daniel Kahneman called “adversarial collaboration” can do this best. The more usual adversarial process in courts and administrative proceedings will have difficulty keeping up and getting it right. Click here or on the picture at the right to get your own copy of the book!
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Stevenson’s army, September 24
– Turkey approved Sweden in NATO; Hungary still needs to act.
– Republican Senators fight over border & Ukraine, shows weakened McConnell
– Some Senators question Biden authority to attack Houthis [My view: President has authority & precedents for Red Sea operations, not for defense of Israel]
– Taiwan Caucus group goes to Taiwan.
– WOTR writer sees corruption in Chinese rocket forces
– Scottish prof says AI is already changing the battlefield
– WSJ says US sees new threats in West Africa
– Deja vu: Heritage supports Jimmy Carter’s road-mobile ICBM plan
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My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 17
-WaPo shows how Israel’s Iron Wall failed.
– Defense News notes how the CR hurts defense.
– GOP Senators again pressed Tuberville
-Reuters sees new source of political violence
– Cybersecurity prof questions relevance of AI for the military
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 12
– WaPo says Ukrainian was involved in Nordstream sabotage.
– NYT says Trump plans mass deportations.
– Legal analyst sees problems with Trump plan to take over regulatory agencies.
– Tim Wu has good ideas for regulating AI.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, September 7
– Fred Kaplan analyzes the Tuberville mess — and has some quotes from me.
– The coach reacts
– US government debates whether to call Niger event a “coup”
– FT wonders which African country will have a coup next
– WSJ says DOD plans “vast AI fleet”
– NYT says China is building a network of basesChina
– Noah Smith, echoing Hal Brands, says China’s economic slowdown may make it more belligerent
– Lawfare reports poll of US views on intelligence community
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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