Tag: Asia
Stevenson’s army, September 15
– SFRC reports Taiwan bill. More from The Hill.
– Senators push terrorism designation on Russia.
– Members criticize new Egypt aid.
– Administration set up Afghan aid bypassing Taliban.
– Uncertain schedule for NDAA.
Charlie wrote later:
[I have grandparent duty most Fridays, so let me upload some extra items now]
– WaPo report on Xi & Putin comments.
– More Senate staff will get top clearances.
– Biden’s Asia trade program IPEF gets some movement. Here’s CRS background.
– In addition to Taiwan bill [text here], SFRC yesterday reported what it calls a State Dept Authorization bill. Since it’s 68 pages long and covers a lot of territory, it could be the first significant such measure in 20 years [though flimsy bills with that title have been enacted since.]
– Beware: there is a faction among GOP candidates who have a scary view of civilian control of the military. For example.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 5
– LA TImes says momentum is shifting toward Russia in Donbas.
– Ross Douthat says he can’t be a Ukraine hawk forever.
– Australian says China is winning in Asia.
– Together on a byline for the first time in decades, Woodward & Bernstein compare Nixon and Trump.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, May 25
– Turkey’s demands regarding Swedish and Finnish NATO entry.
– Orban blocks EU consideration of Russia sanctions.
– WSJ shows limits of Biden Asia trip — Quad didn’t even mention Russia
– Kissinger says Ukraine must make concessions.
– US public support for Ukraine slips, economy more important.
– Russian naval blockade detailed in declassified report.
– RAND author sees civil war in the Marine Corps
– WSJ says Iran previously got access to secret IAEA info.
Remember to check every now and then for new CRS reports — such as this on DOD’s process, and this longer piece on executive branch process.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Clarified aims betoken longer war
Secretary of Defense Austin clarified US war aims yesterday:
We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/25/russia-weakened-lloyd-austin-ukraine-visit/
Meanwhile, the Russians have clarified theirs. They want control not only of all of Donbas in eastern Ukraine but also the southern coast. That would allow them to link up with their long-standing military presence in the Transnistria region of Moldova. The pretext for the Moldova campaign is already in the works.
Ukrainian war aims have long been clear. Kyiv wants to roll the Russians back at least to their pre-February 24 control of Crimea and part of Luhansk and Donetsk. President Zelensky would no doubt like to rid Ukraine altogether of Russian troops.
These different war aims are strangely compatible. Stretched thin already, the Russians have set themselves goals that will be difficult to achieve and will attrite their remaining forces. The Americans and NATO allies are pouring supplies into the Ukrainian army in an effort to give it the resources needed to withstand the Russian offensive and to push back when the time comes.
A longer war
The result will be a longer war than Russia anticipated or Ukraine wants. The Russian army has stalled in its western push from Kherson for the better part of two months. Resistance at Mykolaiv has been stalwart. The Ukrainians have retaken most of the now ruined areas north of Kyiv that the Russians had occupied earlier in the war. In Mariupol, vital to Russian consolidation of control along the Sea of Azov, Ukrainian fighters are still making their last stand. Agreements to allow the evacuation of civilians are breaking down faster than they can be negotiated.
The question now is whether the Ukrainian army can begin to retake some areas, or at least destabilize Russian control in the south. The Russians have lost a lot of men and armor, but they remain far stronger in artillery and airpower. The Ukrainians have acquired some armor but their air defenses and artillery still remain relatively weak. Offensive guerilla operations will be far more difficult for the Ukrainians in the relatively flat and cleared areas of southern Ukraine than in the wooded and hillier north.
War has consequences
Already about one-third of the pre-war Ukrainian population of more than 41 million is displaced, 5.1 million outside the country and 7.7 million inside. Poland has received more than half the refugees. Romania, Hungary, and Moldova have received most the remainder. The vast majority of Ukrainians are fleeing west, not towards Russia or Belarus. They are voting with their feet. Political consequences in the receiving countries so far have not been dramatic. The welcome mat is still out. Relief efforts inside Ukraine are falling short of requirements.
Ukraine and Russia are major grain suppliers to world markets. Their exports will fall dramatically this year, both due to the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. This will create a price problem more than a physical supply problem. That will be felt more strongly in poorer countries that susidize bread prices, like Egypt, than in the US or other rich countries. China, a big importer, is shifting its purchases to Russia, which may help to reduce the impact on world prices.
The broader political consequences of the war are already clear. With the exception of Hungary, NATO is more unified. Western forces on NATO’s eastern flank are increasing. Finland and Sweden appear likely to join the Alliance sooner rather than later. Many countries in Africa and Asia have tried to avoid “taking sides,” but still Russia is increasingly isolated in the United Nations when it comes to discussion and voting on humanitarian issues. China has so far backed Russia, but awkwardly given its position on sovereignty and territorial integrity. It is still unclear whether Beijing is supplying the weapons Moscow has sought.
Meaningful negotiations aren’t likely
Both sides in Ukraine are hurting, but there is as yet no stalemate. It will be weeks if not months before it is clear whether one side or the other can make significant progress in the continued fighting.
Nor is there any indication of a “way out.” The war aims are compatible only if the war continues. The Ukrainians have emphasized from the first their willingness to talk. Their aims in doing so have been limited to humanitarian issues and re-establishing sovereign control of Ukrainian territory. The Russians have met with the Ukrainians repeatedly, but with delegations that don’t appear to have authority over military forces. Supposed agreements break down while President Putin threatens the use of nuclear weapons if the West continues to aid Ukraine.
That threat is one the Americans have to take seriously. The only way of deterring it is to make clear that it would trigger an American response, not in Ukraine but against Russia. There is enormous peril embarking on a course that leads to mutually assured destruction, but it is the only known route to preventing nuclear war. Extension of the American nuclear umbrella to Ukraine would, ironically, make Ukraine all but a de facto member of NATO, precisely what Russia claims it wants to avoid.
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Peace Picks | May 10-14, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- What does the future hold for NATO in the MENA region? | May 10, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) Frontier Europe Initiative in collaboration with the Arab News Research and Studies is pleased to host an online Briefing Room Conversation to discuss the future of NATO in the Middle East-North Africa region.
Speakers:
Luke Coffey
Director, Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, The Heritage Foundation
Iulia Joja
Senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI; adjunct professor, Georgetown University
Tarek Ali Ahmad (Moderator)
Head, Arab News Research and Studies
2. Iraqi-US Relations Under Changing Administrations | May 10, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
As President Joe Biden completes the first 100 days of his presidency, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi nears his one-year anniversary in office. Iraq and the United States held their first strategic dialogue under the Biden administration in early April, discussing bilateral security cooperation, economic development in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and protection of democracy and freedom of speech, among other topics. These two new administrations will now have to set the course for the future of Iraqi-U.S. relations.
Speakers:
Suzanne Maloney (Introduction)
Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy, Brookings Institute
Joey Hood (Keynote)
Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, US Department of State
Abbas Kadhim
Iraq Initiative Director and Resident Senior Fellow, The Atlantic Council
Marsin Alshamary
Post-Doctoral Fellow in Foreign Policy, Brookings Institute
Louisa Loveluck (Moderator)
Baghdad Bureau Chief, The Washington Post
3. Border Battle: Assessing the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan Clashes | May 10, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The death and destruction wrought by the recent violence between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in the Ferghana Valley is a tragedy, with scores of victims on both sides of the border. Worryingly, the clashes might yet have broader implications for both countries and their Central Asian neighbors. How might the confrontation affect the rights of ethnic minorities, particularly in the various exclaves throughout the region? How can Bishkek and Dushanbe avoid a security dilemma that might further destabilize an already tense situation?
Speakers:
Dr. George Gavrilis
Fellow, University of California-Berkeley’s Center for Democracy, Toleration, and Religion
Jonathan Henick
Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, US Department of State
Akylai Karimova
Kyrgyz civil activist based in Osh
Dr. Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
Anahita Saymidinova
Dushanbe-based journalist for Iran International TV
Ambassador John Herbst (Moderator)
Director of the Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council.
4. Restricted Data: The History of Nuclear Secrecy in the United States | May 10, 2021 | 4:00 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
The American atomic bomb was born in secrecy. From the moment scientists first conceived of its possibility to the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and beyond, there were efforts to control the spread of nuclear information and the newly discovered scientific facts that made such powerful weapons possible. Drawing on troves of declassified files, including records released by the government for the first time through Wellerstein’s efforts, Restricted Data traces the complex evolution of the US nuclear secrecy regime from the first whisper of the atomic bomb through the mounting tensions of the Cold War and into the early twenty-first century.
Speakers:
Alex Wellerstein
Stevens Institute of Technology
Christian F. Ostermann (Co-Moderator)
Director, History and Public Policy Program; Cold War International History Project; North Korea Documentation; Nuclear Proliferation International History Project, Woodrow Wilson Center
Eric Arnesen (Co-Moderator)
Former Fellow, Professor of History, The George Washington University
Kathleen M. Vogel
Former Wilson Center Fellow; Arizona State University
Matthew Connelly
Former Fellow; Columbia University
5. Addressing Security Concerns in the Eastern Mediterranean | May 11, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | CSIS | Register Here
As a vital partner for the United States in the Eastern Mediterranean, Greece is witnessing significant shifts in its regional security environment. Minister Panagiotopoulos will discuss the reasons behind growing instability in the region and Greece’s initiatives to advance security and stability in the Eastern Mediterranean, working closely with regional partners. As NATO prepares to update its Strategic Concept starting this summer, Minister Panagiotopoulos will also reflect on Greece’s priorities for the updated concept; discuss how NATO can enhance its political cohesion and address new challenges; and outline ideas for expanding and deepening the U.S.-Greece strategic defence partnership. The conversation will be moderated by Heather A. Conley, CSIS Senior Vice President for Europe, Russia, and the Arctic, and Rachel Ellehuus, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia program.
Speakers:
Nikolaos Panagiotopoulos
Minister of National Defence, Greece
Heather A. Conley
Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia and the Arctic; and Director, Europe, Russia and the Eurasia Program, CSIS
Rachel Ellehuus
Deputy Director, Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program
6. Nonviolent Action and Minority Inclusion | May 11, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Mass movements employing nonviolent action have a demonstrated track record of improving democracy. But how deep and meaningful are these changes? Does nonviolent action merely change political institutions, or can it also address deeper drivers of social and political conflict, particularly for the most marginalized?
To better understand the intersection of nonviolent action and peace processes, join USIP for the final event in our series on people power, peace and democracy. The event series highlights multiple groundbreaking research projects and features insights from activists, international practitioners and policymakers that provide viewers with actionable takeaways.
This USIP event features lessons learned from cutting-edge research showing how nonviolent action affects political and economic inequality — particularly for historically excluded social and ethnic groups — using a cross-national statistical study and in-depth case studies from recent political transitions in Nepal and Indonesia. The research also specifically examines how movements can employ dialogue, negotiation and mediation to better ensure that political transitions following nonviolent action campaigns lead to greater inclusion for marginalized groups. This event will explore the important implications for both policy and practice in ensuring more inclusive democratization processes in the aftermath of nonviolent action.
Speakers:
Jonathan Pinckney (Moderator)
Senior Researcher, Nonviolent Action, U.S. Institute of Peace
Mohna Ansari
Member, National Human Rights Commission of Nepal
Subindra Bogati
Founder and Chief Executive, Nepal Peacebuilding Initiative
Titik Firawati
Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science, Northern Illinois University
Rosa Emilia Salamanca
Director, Institute for Social and Economic Research and Action
Deepak Thapa
Director, Social Science Baha
Ches Thurber
Assistant Professor, Northern Illinois University
7. Developments in Iran: Scandal, Schism and US-Iranian Relations | May 11, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has sensationally admitted that the Foreign Ministry in Tehran has no power to shape strategic policies. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has also scolded Zarif for questioning Tehran’s regional policies, which are designed and implemented by the Revolutionary Guards. This deep schism inside the Islamic Republic raises some important questions at a time when the US is engaged in direct talks with the Iranians in Vienna.
What is the balance of power between elected and unelected centers of powers in Tehran? How certain can the United States be about the ability of the Iranian state to collectively adhere to any nuclear agreement reached in Vienna? Where does this political reality in Tehran mean for Washington’s Iran policy that continues to impose sanctions on key entities in Iran, including the Revolutionary Guards?
Speakers:
Kenneth Katzman
Senior analyst, Congressional Research Service
Barbara Slavin
Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
Reza Vaisi
Editor, Iran International TV
Alex Vatanka (Moderator)
Director, Iran Program, MEI
8. China-Russia Relations at the Dawn of the Biden Era | May 12, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment: Center for Global Policy | Register Here
While U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia relations have steadily deteriorated, China-Russia cooperation has grown in its stead. On the heels of the contentious U.S.-China Alaska summit, Chinese and Russian foreign ministers met in Guilin to discuss bilateral cooperation on a range of issues and even published a joint statement promoting a shared vision for global governance.
However, it is unclear to what extent Russian and Chinese interests will continue to converge. Although both nations have found a common adversary in the United States, any divergence of Russian or Chinese interests could create roadblocks to the two countries’ warming relations. Given China’s increasing economic and political clout, how will Russia manage the relationship in a way that concurrently maintains cooperation with China and protects its own national interests? Will China continue to view Russia as a security and economic partner? And how does the United States view and approach strong China-Russia ties?
Speakers:
Paul Haenle (Moderator)
Maurice R. Greenberg Director Chair, Carnegie-Tsinghua Center, Beijing China
Andrew S. Weiss
James Family Chair and Vice President for Studies, Carnegie Endowment
Guan Guihai
Associate Professor and Executive Vice President, Institute of International and Strategic Studies, Peking University
Vita Spivak
Analyst, Control Risk
9. Middle East Security Establishments and Social Reform | May 12, 2021 | 2:00 PM ET | Belfer Center, Harvard Kennedy School | Register Here
Across the Middle East, the security sector has exercised substantial influence over media, education, and religious institutions, often to the detriment of their societies and American interests. Could they instead become a force for positive reform, and what role might their American allies play in helping them? Please join the Intelligence and Defense Projects for a seminar with Middle East expert Joseph Braude, who will discuss these issues and provide a number of policy suggestions.
Speakers:
Joseph Braude
President of the Center for Peace Communications
10. Czechmate? Russia’s Relations with Czechia go up in Smoke | May 13, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
As the Czech Republic and Russia spar over groundbreaking reports of Russian intelligence operations in Czechia, key lessons emerge about the Kremlin’s tactics, goals, and the ability to exploit openings from foreign governments to attempt operations with impunity. Importantly, these operations were not just designed to harm Czechia—the 2014 destruction of arms depots holding weapons bound for Ukraine link these attacks to the Kremlin’s broader hybrid war against Kyiv, and show an early operation carried out by the same officers responsible for some of the most high-profile Kremlin attacks on foreign soil in recent years. With diplomatic expulsions and talk of further measures to hold Moscow accountable for killings on Czech soil, this crisis is fast becoming the latest significant flashpoint in Russia’s relations with Europe.
Speakers:
H.E. Jakub Kulhánek (Keynote)
Minister of Foreign Affairs for the Czech Republic,
Ambassador Daniel Fried
Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council
Jakub Janda
Director of the European Values Center for Security Policy
Ambassador Jaroslav Kurfurst
Special Envoy for the Eastern Partnership at the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Laure Mandeville
Senior Reporter at Le Figaro and nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center
Ambassador John Herbst (Moderator)
Director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.
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Stevenson’s army, May 10
– NYT says administration is readying new cyber order.
– WSJ says US is looking for new bases in Central Asia.
– Many of you want to bring back USIA [I agree] NYT reports on what China is already doing to dominate the global media.
– Yahoo News has big story on the Soleimani killing, including internal disagreements in the Trump administration.
– WaPo reports problems in US anti-corruption programs in Central America.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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