Tag: Asia
Stevenson’s army, June 14
– FP details administration efforts to kill Iran nuclear deal before the election.
– And it wants to undermine Missile Technology Control Regime in order to sell drones.
– Politico says Foreign Service is still disproportionately Ivy League
– Hudson has a good roundup on South Asia..
– NYT says GOP Senators have a common theme — bashing China.
– WSJ’s Michael Gordon surveys US civil-military tensions.
– Fred Kaplan critiques Trump West Point address.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Stevenson’s army, April 20
– Foreign powers are testing US defenses, Hill reports.
– Russia seems willing to broaden arms control agenda.
-The domestic politics of fighting the pandemic — in Turkey.
– Asia sees second wave of infections.
– Feel good moment: Atlantic has a bunch of spectacular photos of my home state of Colorado. I felt better seeing them and hope you do, too.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Peace Picks|February 17-23
Understanding China’s Economic Slowdown: Countering Belt and Road and Beijing’s Plans to Dominate Global Innovation| February 18, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 1:30 PM | Hudson Institute | Register Here
Amid a time of open challenges to the United States for strategic and economic leadership in the Indo-Pacific by General Secretary Xi Jinping, China’s economic growth is at its slowest pace since 1992. Through the development of political and economic plans such as the Belt and Road Initiative and Made in China 2025, China is attempting to set global development standards while simultaneously increasing other nations’ dependence on China’s technologies and its financial and developmental practices.
What is the significance of the Chinese economic slowdown and its implication for the U.S. and its allies? How can we accurately assess Chinese strengths and weaknesses, and how do we more effectively counter Beijing’s policies and actions that undermine U.S. and allied interests?
Join Hudson Institute for a conversation with experts on what China’s attempts to redefine development standards and practices means for the United States in the era of great power competition. The event will draw on John Lee’s recent report, China’s Economic Slowdown: Root Causes, Beijing’s Response and Strategic Implications for the U.S. and Allies and his upcoming report, Ambition and Overreach: Countering One Belt One Road and Beijing’s Plans to Dominate Global Innovation.
Speakers:
Patrick Cronin: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Thomas Duesterberg: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Nicholas Lardy: Anthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute
John Lee: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
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Censorship and Self-Censorship in Russia| February 18, 2020 | 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM | Wilson Center | Register Here
State control on information and media and aggressive pressure on journalists seeking to maintain their independence are critical elements of the modern Russian state. Although the Russian constitution has an article expressly prohibiting censorship, in reality censorship is a constant factor in the life of the Russian media. Censorship is carried out both directly and indirectly by state pressure and through self-censorship by journalists. In partnership with IREX, the Kennan Institute will host three well-known Russian publicists, analysts, and commentators, Konstantin Sonin, Konstantin Eggert, and Gleb Cherkasov, to discuss censorship and self-censorship in Russia and its role in Russian society.
Speakers:
Konstantin Sonin: John Dewey Distinguished Service Professor, University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy
Konstantin Eggert: Independent journalist, political analysts and communication consultant
Gleb Cherkasov: Journalist; Former Deputy Editor-in-Chief, Kommersant
Sergey Parkhomenko: Senior Advisor, Jounalist, “Echo of Moscow” Radio; Former Editor-in-Chief, Itogi, Vokrug Sveta
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Ending Our Endless War in Afghanistan: Washington Perspectives on a U.S.-Taliban Agreement| February 18, 2020 | 4:00 PM – 5:15 PM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
After over a year of intensive talks, press reports indicate that an official agreement between the U.S. and Taliban is imminent. The agreement reportedly begins with an immediate reduction in violence by all sides, followed by the signing of a U.S.-Taliban agreement. This would lead to intra-Afghan peace negotiations, accompanied by a gradual withdrawal of U.S. troops. Implementing and verifying each step in this process will require meticulous diplomacy, but this reported agreement could mark a major turning point in the effort to end the war in Afghanistan.
Speakers:
The Honorable Stephen J. Hadley: Chair, Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace; former National Security Advisor
The Honorable Michele Flournoy: Co-Founder and Managing Partner, WestExec Advisors
Ambassador Douglas Lute: Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; former U.S. Ambassador to NATO
Ambassador Richard Olson: Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace; former U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan
Scott Smith: Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace
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Conservative Nationalism in the Age of Trump| February 20, 2020 | 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM | Carnegie Endowment | Register Here
The driving force of nationalism within the Republican party is squarely in the spotlight, with the U.S. 2020 elections in sight and questions of how the United States will approach diplomatic, economic, and military issues in the balance. In his new book, Age of Iron: On Conservative Nationalism, Colin Dueck examines the strengths and weaknesses of President Trump’s foreign policy and the overarching role of conservative nationalism in the past, present, and future of U.S. foreign policy. He will be joined in conversation by Danielle Pletka and Richard Fontaine, with Carnegie’s Ashley J. Tellis as moderator.
Speakers:
Colin Dueck is a professor in the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University and a non-resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute
Richard Fontaine is the chief executive officer of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS).
Danielle Pletka is a senior fellow in foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where she focuses on U.S. foreign policy generally and the Middle East specifically.
Ashley J. Tellis holds the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, specializing in international security and U.S. foreign and defense policy with a special focus on Asia and the Indian subcontinent.
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Bridging strategies: Infrastructure efforts in Southeast Asia in an era of great power competition| February 20, 2020 | 12:00 PM | Atlantic Council | Register Here
As the geographical heart of the Indo-Pacific, Southeast Asia will play a critical role in determining the region’s political, military, and economic trajectory for decades to come. As a rapidly growing region home to more than 655 million people, Southeast Asia has become a priority destination for US and Japanese infrastructure investment in the Indo-Pacific, as well as Chinese infrastructure efforts under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
How do these regional infrastructure projects fit into intensifying strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific? Are the new G20 Principles for Quality Infrastructure compatible or competitive with China’s BRI? How can the US, Japan, and other likeminded allies and partners best operationalize these principles in the region? Ultimately, what are the geopolitical and security implications of the evolving infrastructure investment landscape across the Indo-Pacific?
The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security works to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the United States and the world. The Center honors General Brent Scowcroft’s legacy of service and embodies his ethos of nonpartisan commitment to the cause of security, support for US leadership in cooperation with allies and partners, and dedication to the mentorship of the next generation of leaders.
Speakers:
Mr. Bart W. Edes: Representative of the North American Office, Asian Development Bank
Mr. Jonathan Hillman: Senior Fellow, Simon Chair in Political Economy, and Director, Reconnecting Asia Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Mr. Makoto Lyori: Visiting Fellow, Asia Security Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Dr. Miyeon Oh: Asia Security Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Ms. Shannon Tiezzi: Editor-in-Chief, The Diplomat
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The Impact of the Conflict on Human Rights in Syria| February 20, 2020 | 4:30 PM – 6:00 PM | Johns Hopkins University | Register Here
The Commissioners of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic (Chair Professor Paulo Pinheiro, Commissioner Karen Abuzayd and Commissioner Hanny Megally) will discuss recent conflict dynamics in Syria and their impact on the human rights situation. In this context, the Commission will discuss their recently published report on child rights violations.
Speakers:
Paulo Sergio Pinheiro: A Chairman of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry for Syria
Karen Koning Abuzayd: A Commissioner of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry for Syria
Hanny Megally: A senior fellow at the New York University Center on International Cooperation
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The Crisis in Syria’s Idlib| February 21, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Nearly 600,000 people have been displaced in northwestern Syria in the last two months, in what is now the biggest humanitarian crisis in nine years of war. The brutal military assault being conducted by the Syrian government, Russia and Iran shows no signs of abating and has in recent weeks sparked direct and deadly clashes between Syrian and Turkish troops. Hospitals and schools continue to be struck from the air, IDP camps have reached capacity and humanitarian agencies are warning of an impending humanitarian disaster.
Since the Syrian government and its allies began an offensive on Idlib in the Spring of 2019, approximately 25% of the opposition-controlled territory has fallen – roughly 75% still remains. Amid this ongoing crisis and unprecedented levels of civilian displacement and human suffering, the international community appears to have been rendered powerless. The Middle East Institute is pleased to host a panel discussion on the situation in Idlib, in order to discuss the nature of the crisis and the international response; the geopolitical dynamics at play; concerns over terrorism; and what possible paths might exist to resolve the situation.
Speakers:
Zaher Sahloul: President and Founder, MedGlobal
Elizabeth Tsurkov: Fellow, Foreign Policy Research Institute
Charles Lister: Senior Fellow and Director of the Countering Terrorism and Extremism Program, MEI
Alexander Marquardt: Senior national correspondent, CNN
Stevenson’s army, December 24
– NYT says US plans major drawdown from west Africa.
– Pro-foreign aid group lists details of budget agreement on function 150 spending.
– Administration has new cyber security R&D plan.
– Xi brings Abe and Moon together.
– BBC says ISIS is rebuilding in Iraq.
PS: Merry Christmas!
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Friday stock taking
It’s Friday, so let’s take a look at how effectively the Trump Administration has dealt with world and domestic events this week while it obsesses over impeachment:
- The North Koreans continue to launch increasingly capable ballistic missiles.
- While suffering from reimposed sanctions, Iran is defying the US and increasing uranium enrichment beyond the limits specified the nuclear deal the US withdrew from.
- The Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil production facilities has elicited no visible response from the US or Saudi Arabia, which is joining the United Arab Emirates in playing footsie with Iran.
- While failing to remove from Syria all the troops Trump said would be withdrawn, the US has allowed Turkey to take over a buffer zone along its border with Syria, leading to large-scale displacement of people there. Russia has also gained a foothold in northeastern Syria, as has the Assad regime.
- The trade war with China drags on, with the US trade deficit ballooning and Asian partners and allies doubting US commitments in the region.
- Venezuelan autocrat Maduro has survived despite American pressure, as has the Communist regime in Cuba and Evo Morales’ rule in Bolivia.
- In Europe, French President Macron is describing NATO as “brain dead” because of Trump’s lack of commitment to it and Trump’s pal UK Prime Minister Johnson is being forced into an election to try to confirm his Brexit plan, which Trump has supported.
- In the Balkans, the Administration has confused everyone with the appointment of two special envoys whose relationship to each other and to US policy is opaque.
- That’s all without even mentioning Ukraine, where State Department officials have confirmed that President Trump tried to extort an investigation of his political rivals from newly elected President Zelensky in exchange for Congressionally approved military aid.
The home front is even worse:
- A New York State Court has forced Trump into a $2 million settlement in which he has admitted improper and fraudulent use of his family foundation.
- Republicans lost the governorship in Kentucky and control of both houses of the Virginia assembly in off-year elections earlier this week. Congressional Republicans are nervous.
- President Trump’s personal lawyer affirmed that everything he did in Ukraine was to serve his client’s personal interests, a statement that confirms public assets were used for private purposes.
- The Attorney General, a stalwart defender of his boss, has declined to make a public statement supporting Trump’s claim that he did nothing wrong in his infamous phone call with President Zelensky.
- The House Democrats are piling up subpoenas that the White House is ignoring, heightening the likelihood that obstruction of Congressional oversight will be added to the impeachment charges and limiting the news to the sharp critiques of non-White House officials.
- The economy is slowing, especially in some “swing” districts vital to Trump’s hopes for a win in the electoral college in 2020, when he is sure to lose the popular vote once again, likely by a wider margin than in 2016.
I suppose it could get worse, and likely will. But it has been a long time since we’ve seen an American Administration in worse shape than this.
Stevenson’s army November 5
– Russia is sending mercenaries to Libya.
– With US absent, rest of Asia looks to trade deals with China.
– Tariff rollbacks likely part of US-China trade agreement.
– NYT says Pompeo “in peril,” losing trust at State.
– NYT has deeper look at Iraqi protests against Iran.
– The most important presidential election news: NYT poll shows Trump strong in battleground states; 2/3 of Trump 2016 and Dem 2018 voters say they’ll vote for Trump in 2020.
– Departing official criticizes Trump Syria policy.
– Former officials argue realists wrong about Syria.
– Academics say Trump quid pro quos aren’t normal.
– WaPo says many migrants are funded by microfinance programs.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
