Tag: Balkans
The Black Sox in Belgrade
This interview provoked a reaction, published originally in the Podgorica daily Pobjeda, from former Montenegrin Foreign Minister and Ambassador to the United States Miodrag Vlahović, who is now President of the Helsinki Commission in Podgorica. He has contribued previously to peacefare.net
Your Excellency, Dear Ambassador Hill,
Your last interview with “Voice of America” is full of wrong theses, incorrect and incorrect interpretations which, once again, confirm your policy of appeasing and pandering to Aleksandar Vučić, i.e. the official policy of Serbia, and seriously calls into question the motives and intentions behind such a position of yours and your public statements.
Your reluctance to publicly criticize the politics personified by Vučić in any way is taking the form of a caricature. It is fascinating that even in the last brutal threats and insults, which were sent, one after the other, to Montenegro and North Macedonia by the President of Serbia Vučić, then the Minister of Defense Vučević and, finally, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Dačić, you do not recognize anything controversial! For you, that is not an attempt to destabilize the region? What are the reasons for your attitude, which honestly surprises and worries all sincere American friends in Montenegro, but also in all other countries of the region?
If what three Serbian officials publicly said is not a problem, then neither is your repeated advocacy for the so-called “Open Balkans”, which three of the six Western Balkan countries never agreed to – and one of the two main promoters (i.e. Prime Minister Rama) recently clearly and definitively gave up – “is not in dispute”. That is why it’s amazing. Indeed, for what reason do you unnecessarily and futilely insist for months on that unregulated and imposed form of co-operation, which all our (and your) European friends and allies have clearly said was not compatible with the European agenda of the Western Balkans, not even with the Berlin Process itself? What is your interest in it? Obstructing the European integration of the Western Balkans, in order to satisfy the appetites of the nationalist politics of official Belgrade? That’s the goal?
What worries us the most in your interview is the statement that the policy that is now identified with you, having in mind everything you say and do (although Mr Escobar, Mr Grenell and one of your predecessors in Belgrade, Ambassador Montgomery, belong to the same “school of thought”) is good and correct, even if it doesn’t produce results?!
We must, with all due respect, correct you here. It is not true that such “Pax Americana” does not produce results in our region. The truth is quite different: the policy you promote causes very bad consequences. It destabilizes the Western Balkans. It creates and maintains crises and prevents some open issues and antagonisms from starting to be resolved, finally. Examples, we are sure, you know more and better than us, are there: the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the relationship between Serbia and Kosovo, and events and trends in our country, Montenegro. That is why your policy is deeply flawed. It threatens to completely compromise the decades-long positive and effecient engagement of the United States in our region.
We, in Montenegro, not only because of the process of restoration of our independence, will never forget the great friendly support and help that we continuously received from your country.
And for this reason, your policy of appeasing and yielding the regime of Aleksandar Vučić is wrong. And worse than that: it is doomed to fail.
This failure will cost Serbia itself dearly, as well as all its neighbors.
We will not, in this address, spend time and energy on analyzing whether and how much it is about your personal intervention and your preferences, and how much it is the politics of Washington. This, we are sure, is better understood and known in the State Department itself. Your colleagues and your superiors will be able to recognize how successful your publicly declared intention to “separate Serbia from Russia” can be and how much and for how long it could cost other countries in the Western Balkans. And how much it can affect the stability and security of the region as a whole.
It seems to us that it is also not true that “there are no results”: the consequences of your policy are exactly the opposite of those that you publicly project. Therefore, it is not a stagnation. It is a regression.
For us in Montenegro, but also for all democratic and pro-Western political forces in the Western Balkans, including, especially, our friends in Serbia, the statement that “you cannot compare Milošević and Vučić” is, to say the least, surprising. And offensive to all of us.
You cannot compare the head of a regime, who ended up in The Hague, with his Minister of Propaganda, who we remembered for his brutal attacks on the free media and for his warmongering and xenophobic statements, including those that it is necessary to “kill a hundred Bosniaks for every lost Serb”?! It is enough to remember the name and fate of Slavko Ćuruvija, whom Minister Vučić openly threatened…
Or, instead of unnecessarily reminding you about things that you know better than us, we should ask you: do you see similarities between the fate of Ivan Stambolić and that of Oliver Ivanović? This tragic coincidence is even greater and more tragic than the one between Vučić and Milošević. You don’t need to answer that question, of course. The obvious does not need an explanation.
In the end: there is also no need to explain to you, as an American, what this “Black Sox” from the title can be associated with. And you know that better than we do, too.
Your engagement in Belgrade and its consequences can actually make it unnecessary for us to send you the message that was sent when some were deeply disappointed with their sports and social role models and idols: “Tell us that’s not true!”
Therefore, you don’t need to make excuses for us. You should say and do what would confirm the reasons and principles by which the politics and diplomacy of the United States of America were recognized in our part of Europe.
We still hope that you are ready for such a change.
Best wishes and sinecere regards,
Miodrag Vlahović
Here is the Hill interview with VoA, courtesy of Googletranslate:
Voice of America: The President of Serbia, Mr. Vučić, met with the President of Ukraine, Mr. Zelensky, this morning and said that they had a “good and open conversation.” Last night, however, we heard the news reported by the Serbian media, referring to a Russian media outlet, that Vučić insisted that the joint declaration of the leaders of the Western Balkan countries from the summit in Athens did not contain a call for the introduction of sanctions against Russia. Do you see it as Vučić’s balancing act?
Hill: You will have to ask Mr. Vučić, but our position is very clear: everyone should join the sanctions against Russia, especially countries that aspire to join the EU. We think it’s the right thing to do. Many small countries have imposed sanctions even though it harms them, but they did it anyway because it is in their higher interest and in the interest of a larger group like the EU. We would like Serbia to do the same and for it to be part of its path towards the Euro-Atlantic system. When it comes to the meeting with Zelensky, I was extremely pleased when I saw that the Serbian and Ukrainian presidents sat down to talk. Serbia and Ukraine have a long history, they always got along well, had good relations, and that’s why I think it’s important that they met, exchanged opinions and talked about what the future brings. Because there will be changes, this war will not last forever and we will see how things will develop. But I believe that the past months were important for the people of Serbia to see what Russia is really like, and that Serbia should move west, towards Euro-Atlantic systems.
Voice of America: Speaking of Serbia’s approach to the West and Russia – the US recently imposed sanctions on the director of the Security and Intelligence Agency, Alexander Vulin, a man with close ties to Russia. Are you disappointed that he is still sitting as director of the Serbian secret police, as if nothing happened?
Hill: I don’t like that at the beginning of this conversation I have to talk about things on which we disagree with the Serbian authorities, but yes, we have a problem with him, with his determination, and our position is that he should be sanctioned. And I see that this attitude is not shared by the authorities in Serbia, but our attitude is very clear… Disappointment means that your expectations have not been met. I would say that I am a realist and I do my job, and my job is to promote the close ties between the USA and Serbia, as well as for the two countries to be on the same side.
Voice of America: Mr. Vučić often says that the sanctions were introduced only because of Vulin’s close ties with Russia and because Serbia did not impose sanctions on Moscow. And that the other allegations – about drug trafficking, arms and corruption, are secondary or unfounded. How about that?
Hill: I want to say that we imposed sanctions on Mr. Vulin only because of Mr. Vulin, and I think that in general we have maintained a good relationship. Sanctions are not against the institution, but against the individual. This is a process that happens in Washington, not in the embassy, but from what I understand it was a fair process, where different activities were taken into account and a decision was made… I assure you that the people who decide on this in Washington are working they carefully consider the evidence and make decisions based on it.
Voice of America: Several dozens of parliamentarians from the USA and European countries appealed in a letter to the West to change its policy towards Serbia, claiming that the current policy does not work and that the Western approach to Vučić is “soft” in the context of Kosovo. Do you consider your policy successful if you consider that the situation in Kosovo has escalated several times in the past year, that Serbia is not closer to the EU, that neither the Ohrid Agreement nor the European proposal on Kosovo are implemented? Where is the success?
Hill: First, you don’t make policy because it’s successful, but because it’s right. When we formulate policy, we weigh our interests and the idea of whether it is the right thing for our government to do. Of course we would like the Brussels dialogue to take place much faster, we support Mr. (Miroslav) Lajčak because we think that is the right approach. And we would like to see an agreement based on the formation of the Union of Serbian Municipalities, so that the Serbs in the north of Kosovo know what the rules of the game are and what their lives will look like, that is very important to us. We recognize Kosovo and we would like it to join international organizations because we think it is the best for Kosovo, but also for the stability of the region. That’s our policy, and I think it’s the right one regardless of whether it’s successful or not. The game is not over.
Voice of America: What do you say about the statements that Vučić is destabilizing the region? The Minister of Defense of Serbia recently said that North Macedonia and Montenegro could be “hit on the head” by the recognition of Kosovo, which some in Montenegro interpreted as a threat. Do you consider it an attempt to destabilize the region?
Hill: I don’t see it as an attempt to destabilize the region, and I certainly don’t think that Mr. Vucevic wanted to be understood that way. I would certainly like to see better relations between the Balkan countries and I think that the Open Balkans is a good step in that direction, as well as the Berlin process… I would like to see more support from other countries in the region, but also from the West where everyone understands that these countries must cooperate and that way they will be better partners or members of the EU.
Voice of America: In the 1990s, the West had a harsher approach towards Serbia. You also met Slobodan Milošević, now you are working with Vučić, can you compare them, to say who is easier to cooperate with?
Hill: I can’t compare them, they are very very different, and the time is different. And I can’t talk about the similarities and differences between the current president and someone like Milosevic, I’ll leave that to you and the historians.
Voice of America: The situation in Kosovo seems calmer than it has been in recent months. Did you find a common language with Mr. Kurti, the Prime Minister of Kosovo, to work on solving the problem together? I am asking you because you told us in an interview in June that you are not sure that Mr. Kurti is an American partner. Have you moved on from that point?
Hill: What I can tell you is that we are working closely with Serbia to solve the problem, we think it makes sense for Serbia and Serbian-American relations, and I will leave it to others to answer this question. My opinion is well known.
Voice of America: Do you think that the situation in Kosovo is more peaceful or do you think differently?
Hill: I’d say it’s August and a lot of people are on vacation, we’ll have to see how it goes in September. I believe that this is an issue that requires urgent resolution and that progress is needed. Although we now know what the “ingredients” are for a peaceful future – the formation of the ZSO, Kosovo’s access to international organizations, we know what we need to do, we just need to put the pieces together. It’s like a big puzzle that you put on the table and then put the pieces together.
Voice of America: Do you expect a crisis in September?
Hill: I can’t predict a crisis, but what I can see is a new attempt to solve the problems. Everyone had a chance to think during the summer and I hope we can improve. Serbia is the largest country in the Balkans, it has ambitions to get closer to the West, it has ambitious economic plans, Expo 27 is coming up, if I were Serbia I would like to solve the problem with Kosovo, to show that I still support the Serbian community in Kosovo, but, finally, to see what are the broader, strategic moves that need to be made to get closer to the West.
Voice of America: You recently tweeted a video that some saw as controversial because Mr. Željko Mitrović, the owner of TV Pink, appears in it. Pink was seen as a generator of violence because of reality shows that are violent, you can often see a dirty campaign against the opposition, it is about pro-government television. With the understanding that the American goal is to bring Serbia closer to the West, do you think that this should be done with the help of people who represent everything that America does not advocate?
Hill: I think your question assumes that the US ambassador here has a lot of tools in his hands and thinks “look, it would be easier if we recruited TV Pink into our process.” But that’s not how it works at all. Pink TV made a decision, not because of me, but because they think that the future of this country is in the West. It is up to them to decide how they present themselves to the viewers. If you are a foreign diplomat here, you assess how things are. And I have to tell you – one of the things that you don’t value much, and yet many in Serbia would raise that question – is honesty. What I’m looking at is what they actually do, what they say, what the news looks like to them, whether they’re looking for violence and whether they’re pro-Russian – speaking of violence. And what you see is television presenting arguments in favor of Serbia in the West. They recently sent a team to Ukraine, not only to visit Kiev, but you see Serbian journalists in the trenches with Ukrainian soldiers, reporting on the worst war in decades. I’m not here to judge, I’m not here to talk about what they did in the past, I’m just looking at what they’re doing now. And now they are presenting arguments that I think should be presented more often in Serbia – that Serbia is a country in the heart of Europe and that it should be part of the Euro-Atlantic structures.
Voice of America: Do you think this statement of yours will create the impression that you are defending TV Pink?
Hill: I don’t mean to defend anyone. I defend the idea that Serbia should look forward and I hope that others will see it that way. I’m not defending anyone, I’m just stating the facts. Do you want people to look forward, or keep looking back? I would like people to look forward.
Montenegro: where’s the beef?
Miodrag Vlahović, former Montengrin Minister of Foreign Affairs and former ambassador to US, is now president of the Montenegrin Helsinki Committee. He continues his observations on his country’s current political course:
Montenegro’s parliamentary election June 11 gave the Europe Now movement 24 out of 81 seats, edging out the former ruling party and its coalition allies. But the process of creating the new Montenegrin government still goes on. After a long consultations, President Milatović has given Milojko Spajić a mandate. He now has to gain a majority in parliament.
Back to square one
That took almost two months. Now Montenegrin politicians seem to be back to square one. The reason is simple. The dilemma is whether to include pro-Serbian/pro-Russian parties (New Serbian Democracy and the Democratic People’s Party) in the next government.
Their inclusion would be risky move for Spajić. The new government would lose any claim to being pro-EU. And it would have no credibility in the West. The US and German ambassadors in Podgorica have emphasized that participation of political parties opposed to NATO and to recognition of Kosovo, or failing to oppose the Russian invasion of Ukraine, would block Montenegro’s progress towards the EU.
Limited options
Spajić has received this message, but whether he can comply remains uncertain. Without the pro-Serbian/pro-Russian parties, he can hope for support from 44 members of parliament (41 is required for a simple majority). But a qualified majority (3/5) of 49 is required for implementation of crucial judiciary reforms.
The elephant in the room is is the former ruling party, the Democratic Party of Socialists, together with their allies. They are pro-EU. If things were normal and logical, DPS would be a natural partner for Spajić’s Europe Now movement.
Spajić, however, still clings to the notion that former President Đukanović’s party is “not reformed enough.” Translation: Đukanović is still there. Not able to do what is logical, Spajić is condemned to forming a weak government unable to pursue needed reforms. He might even find himself evicted from the prime ministry after even the smallest dispute or political crisis.
No top cover
President Milatović, his deputy in the Europe Now movement, is part of Spajić’s problem. The President is thought to be connected to a group who have announced the creation of new party. They want inclusion of anti-NATO parties in the new government.
So is this delay about formation of a new reformist government that can take Montenegro into the EU, or is it a power struggle between Spajić and Milatović? Where’s the beef?
New elections?
There is the possibility of new elections. That would mean Spajić lost the power struggle. It is an open question whether it would be good or bad for Montenegro.
You wouldn’t be able to publish what I really think
I did this interview Monday for Shpat Blakcori of Kosovo’s TV1:
Q: How do you comment that the Government of Kosovo has taken some measures to ease the situation in the north, but European Union has not removed the measures against Prishtina?
A: You wouldn’t be able to publish what I really think. It is time to stop the nonsense of hyper-pressuring Pristina while allowing Belgrade to encourage attacks on Kosovo police and KFOR peacekeepers, boycott Kosovo elections, and mobilize its military forces.
Q: Do you think that the image of Kosovo has been damaged by measures from the US and the EU?
A: Yes, unquestionably. Neither Brussels nor Washington has made a secret of their distaste for the current authorities in Kosovo. How you could be more concerned with which buildings the mayors work from rather than about attacks on KFOR police and NATO peacekeepers is inexplicable.
Q: Prime Minister Kurti says that the dialogue mediated by the European Union is not balanced. What is your view on this?
A: It has not been balanced for the last year or more. I am glad that the American and European parliamentarians have spoken up against the imbalance.
Q: Do you think that with the upcoming local elections whenever they take place in the north of the country, Serbian List will continue to have full control as in the past?
A: I imagine so. Vucic shows know sign of easing up on his control of the north. That is what Brussels and Washington should be worried about. He is playing Russia’s game, not the West’s.
Q: In your opinion, what should be done to have more pluralism in the northern part of Kosovo?
A: Pristina needs to reach out to the north and do what it has done successfully with at least some of the Serbs who live south of the Ibar: convince them that they will be better off cooperating than defying. I am not seeing enough effort of that sort, though more may go on in private than I know about.
Another Belgrade view on whether Serbia is moving West
The Belgrade Media Center has kindly given me permission to republish in English this interview with Dušan Janjić, the founder of the Forum for Ethnic Relations:
The “Serbia against violence” protest will probably crystallize into a network of political parties, civil movements and interest groups with a pro-reform political offer. The inappropriate attitude of the government towards the needs of citizens and the demands of protests of various kinds, strikes and other outpourings of dissatisfaction, as well as frequent manifestations of the incompetence and irresponsibility of the government create conditions for the spread of protests.”
In his opinion, the government is one of the important generators of violence.
“Violence is one of the instruments of staying in power, but also of defending the economic and other monopolies of those who support it. In that alliance, there was a wide spread of power, money and organized crime, especially the drug business. This makes it impossible to realize the necessary deviation from violence”, Janjić states.
Janjić believes that the summer months are important for the spread of protests throughout Serbia, as well as for the preparation of wide promotion in Serbia and for the international promotion of the goals and demands of the protest.
“Apparently, in the fall, the protest mantra becomes: ‘Stop the mafia.’ This protest will be more massive and united by its political message in its stance against the government and the mantra: “Leave”! Then there will be decisive support for the transition of power,” Janjić points out.
The interlocutor of the Media Center states as the main challenge and responsibility for the “coordinators” of the protest: whether they will manage to build a flexible and effective network of associated actors, as well as to train themselves for joint action in which the key actors, in addition to common messages, by preserving their special identities, attract as wide a range as possible in the circle of supporters and future voters; whether they will manage to build and present to the public an alternative political vision, program and political propaganda and marketing communication with citizens.
He adds that this is a condition to maintain and strengthen the motivations and action of the initial protest, as well as to participate in the “Stop Mafia” movement. Otherwise, the emergence of the “Stop Mafia” movement will involve a much wider circle of opposition parties and other entities. But it would be dangerous for the transition if that movement is imposed and the widespread dissatisfaction of citizens is reduced only to a decision against,” Janjić believes.
Janjić notes that it should be borne in mind that in the fall the ruling old women, their coalitions and movements will be activated.
“Also, influential “patriotic”, “sovereigntist” movements such as the Serbian Right and parapolitical organizations and other anti-reformist, anti-NATO players linked to their “pro-Kremlin” ties and interests will be activated on the stage in the fight for voters’ votes in the upcoming elections. On this wave, there could be a repetition of the “betrayal of citizens’ expectations” as well as the real needs of society,” says our interlocutor.
By ignoring all the demands of the protesting citizens, the government has the following messages: That the government does not have the will, readiness, or ability to properly solve the problems that the protests point to; that every new incident, especially a security one, every affair or involvement of the authorities in connection with organized crime is evidence of the corruption of the authorities and increases the concern for the safety of a wide range of citizens, even members of the army and the police; that he does not respect the voice and dignity of citizens; that the ruling elite and its top itself put their own interests and survival in power first; that it has no vision of improving the situation in the country and that it is wandering in search of Serbia’s place in the world. This, in turn, encourages memories of the experiences of poverty and suffering from the era of sanctions and wars in the 90s; That behind the ignoring,
“All in all, the uncertain government and many unfulfilled promises encourage distrust in the government. And one who cannot be trusted cannot be a guarantor of security. This, in turn, further expands the fears, apprehensions, insecurities and sense of threat of the citizens”, concludes Janjić.
Anti-Western and pro-Putin propaganda and admonition of the authorities for European integration
“Since 2012, when SNS came to power, we have been swearing by “European integration” and very little work has been done on the reforms that are a prerequisite for membership.
From 2015 until today, the government is characterized by disorientation regarding the goals and means of running society. In its operation, there is a noticeable increase in the influence of interest groups that are anti-reform and anti-EU and NATO. This is expected and represents “bad news”. The “good news” is that such regimes, from Trump in the USA, Putin’s Russia and even in the EU itself, such as Orban’s, are collapsing. It shows that populist dictatorships are not a sustainable answer to the challenges of decades of economic and political crisis. Just as the EU is working on the “New Green Deal”, Serbia also needs a “New Deal”, ie a strategy and policy for sustainable reforms of the economy, institutions and society”, believes Janjić.
NATO membership is a necessary stage on the way to full EU membership
“That’s the rule. Through its unilateral internal political decision (Resolution of the National Assembly), Serbia declared itself “militarily neutral” and an exception to the rule. This neutrality has nothing in common with the military neutrality of Austria, Finland and Sweden. With the recent accession of Finland and (soon) Sweden to NATO membership, everything has come down to the exception of Austria, which is a member of the EU, but is not a member of NATO,” says the interlocutor of the Media Center.
According to his opinion, tolerance of Serbia’s self-proclaimed neutrality was the result of geostrategic security “balancing” of EU and US interests towards Russia.
“After all, in the example of Serbia, the source of the idea of ”military neutrality” is Putin’s Moscow from the phase of “Euro-Asian integration”. Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine, in February 2022, marked the end of this policy of Moscow, and of tolerance by the EU, USA and NATO. A new distribution of spheres of interest is underway. This exacerbates the issue of Serbia’s membership in NATO. This, on the other hand, is contrary to the current ideological and political commitment of the majority of political and economic, as well as civil society, especially the SPC,” Janjić states.
The normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo is a necessary evil for the authorities in Belgrade and Pristina
“The authorities of Kosovo and Serbia have similar views and ways of dealing with crises. The opening of new crises serves them to create a “new reality”, and this one is interpreted with the leading goal of staying in power. Agreement and normalization of their societies and relations between Serbia and Kosovo is only a necessary evil for these authorities. In that kind of politics, the “final agreement” can only be the “final solution” or the elimination of the Other. This creates circumstances in which the Third Party (Quinte Group) is forced to take the initiative in reducing the damage, which gives rise to the obligation to create a framework for the actions of the authorities of Kosovo and Serbia.
Because of all this, it should be expected that the spiral of the crisis will rise to a higher level and include more and more problems and involved actors. For now, it seems that the Serbian government, with the attacks of Serbian demonstrators on KFOR – NATO soldiers, as well as with the announcement that they will return to the UN Security Council, has reached the limit where they recognize the intention of further militarizing the crisis and bringing Russia and China into the game. This would jeopardize the interests of the Quint Group and the citizens of the Western Balkans themselves in maintaining the current state of “unfinished peace”.
The likely answer will be to increase capacity and cooperation to prevent or control possible armed conflicts. In a political sense, this encourages a re-examination of the overall scope and format of the current “Brussels Dialogue”. There are more and more voices in favor of ending this phase of the “dialogue” by means of the International Conference on the Normalization of Relations (that is, on the stabilization of peace and development) between Kosovo and Serbia. The convener or “facilitator” of the conference would be the European Commission, and the guarantors of the implementation of the agreed solution would be the EU, the USA, Great Britain, NATO and Kosovo and Serbia,” explains Janjić.
A new challenge for Europe, NATO and Russia
“With the last summit held in Lithuania, NATO entered the final stage of its “rounding up” in Europe. The end of the war in Ukraine is coming, the enlargement to the Western Balkans, ie Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as Moldova and Georgia. Moscow will, without a doubt, continue with various measures to prevent the unification of Europe in NATO and to “push” NATO as far as possible from the borders of Russia. Certainly, it is a challenge for Europe and NATO as well as for Russia.Although , Russia has an even bigger challenge on its territory east of the Urals, and especially on its Central Asian borders.
Also, the USA, the European Union as well as NATO, on the one hand, and Russia, on the other, have to face the challenges of the growing power and influence of China and India. In other words, there is the same challenge before all countries, both for the “Great Powers” and for small countries, such as Serbia: How to adapt to globalization and at the same time ensure their own development”, concluded Janjić.
US sanctions are failing to prevent Bosnian Serb peace violations
I am pleased to publish this piece by Ajdin Muratovic, a Washington, D.C.-based Security Fellow at the Truman National Security Project. He has extensive experience working, studying, and living across Eastern Europe.
Targeted sanctions—an increasingly popular item in Washington’s Western Balkans toolkit—are supposed to change behavior and deter future malign conduct. Yet the sanctions the US has leveled against Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik for violating the peace agreement that ended the Bosnian war are failing to achieve either objective. The results could be catastrophic. Failure to maintain peace and stability in Bosnia risks triggering another war in Europe. That could lead to untold human suffering, while sapping resources and bandwidth from strategic priorities such as the war in Ukraine. Such an outcome is easily preventable. US policymakers should modify a sanctions regime that is insufficiently tough, poorly targeted, and lacks multilateral support.
How we got here
In late 1995, the US-led Dayton Agreement ended nearly four years of extreme violence in Bosnia-Herzegovina. The Bosnian war introduced the term “ethnic cleansing” to the world. It featured genocide, concentration camps, mass rape, and hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded for the first time in Europe since the Second World War––all less than an hour’s flight from Germany. The Dayton Agreement succeeded in reconciling warring parties and preserving Bosnia’s territorial integrity, but at a price. Postwar Bosnia became a highly decentralized state with two powerful subnational “entities” – the Bosniak-Croat dominated Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), and the Serb-dominated Republika Srpska (RS), the latter currently led by Dodik.
Dodik has led Bosnian Serb politics for most of the almost three decades since the end of the war. He was initially seen as a moderate with whom the West could work rather than a hardline Serb nationalist. He started his political career as a State Department darling. But he eventually came to undermine the Dayton peace agreement by creating illegal parallel government institutions, seizing Bosnian central government property, ignoring Bosnian constitutional court orders, and obstructing policies that would improve the Sarajevo government’s ability to function, all while promising unification with Serbia.
Sanctions and the reaction
In response, the US sanctioned Dodik, twice: in 2017 for “actively obstructing the Dayton Agreement” after he defied constitutional court rulings; and again in 2022 for numerous “corrupt and destabilizing activities,” including accumulating “personal wealth through graft, bribery and other forms of corruption.”
Yet Dodik has only become bolder and more extreme since being sanctioned. A recent report to the UN Security Council stated that “secessionist rhetoric and action” has “intensified” during the past six months. The report cites as evidence Dodik’s March 2023 proclamation that “our goal is unification, meaning leaving Bosnia-Herzegovina and joining Serbia.” He added that he and his allies “are just waiting for the moment to do that.”
Rather than idly waiting, Dodik and legislators from his party are acting, implementing a stealth secession. In June, they voted to suspend all rulings of Bosnia’s constitutional court, effectively removing Republika Srpska from the court’s jurisdiction. This and similar moves by Republika Srpska officials violate the Dayton Agreement and threaten to ignite a war. If history is any guide, it will quickly become a regional conflict.
Unrivalled American influence
This is happening in a country where, unlike in Iran or Russia, the US has unrivaled influence. American officials designed Bosnia’s contemporary political system during the Dayton negotiations at an Ohio military base. The agreement, part of which also serves as Bosnia’s constitution, renders it a non-sovereign state with ample opportunity for American intervention.
The most powerful official in the country is not its elected head of government, but a foreign diplomat appointed by internationals known as the High Representative (HR). He oversees civilian implementation of the Dayton Agreement. The HR has immense powers to ensure treaty compliance, including vetoing legislation and firing Bosnian officials. US support is vital for the appointment of a HR, and the Deputy HR is always an American.
An EU-led military force, currently over 1,000 troops, supplements the HR’s treaty enforcement. Additionally, the Dayton Agreement, and a subsequent UN Security Council resolution, permit NATO deployments, including US troops, without consent from Bosnian officials. Although Europeans occupy key civilian and military roles in Bosnia, they only do so with American blessing. Perhaps no example better illustrates American centrality in Bosnia than the fact that key decisions, such as new election laws, are frequently negotiated in the U.S. Ambassador’s residence, rather than in Bosnian institutions.
Strategic irrelevance and tactical errors
Yet Bosnia is not a strategic priority for the United States government. The US Trade Representative’s website, which lists over 110 trading partners, does not include Bosnia. Neither the US National Defense Strategy, nor the National Security Strategy, mentions the country. In fact, the two documents only refer to the Western Balkans region only once. Washington’s assessment that Bosnia is not a priority has led to a concomitant lack of consistent US engagement and high-level policy attention when it comes to the region. This includes insufficient US pressure on problematic actors such as Dodik.
Tactically, sanctions against Dodik have failed in three primary ways.
No isolation
First, they have not isolated him politically or economically. Dodik and his political party continue to win elections. Internationally, he punches above the weight of a sub-national leader. He has allied himself with fellow European right-wing and pro-Russian politicians such as Hungary’s Viktor Orban to avoid potential EU sanctions, attended Turkish President Recip Tayyip Erdogan’s recent presidential inauguration, and is a frequent guest of Putin.
Still, American officials regularly meet with Dodik and behave as if he is a good-faith actor. Dodik has replied to such American attention by doubling down on pro-Russian and secessionist policies. Such meetings only served to highlight the irrelevance of existing sanctions – a point that both Dodik and the opposition make. The sanctions have also been financially inconsequential. Bosnian politicians mostly confine their assets and dealings to the EU and neighboring Balkan countries.
No multilateral complement
This highlights a second tactical shortcoming. There are no multilateral sanctions to complement American ones. So far, only the United Kingdom has joined the sanctions against Dodik. EU sanctions would impose serious economic and lifestyle costs on destabilizing individuals. But the Union refuses to activate a more than decade-old framework to sanction individuals that “undermine the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and constitutional order” of BiH.
Hungarian and Croatian officials have signaled that they would not provide the necessary unanimous support, despite abundant evidence of sanctionable offenses. Reports also indicate that the EU’s envoy to Bosnia advised against joining the US sanctions for fear of making Dodik a “martyr.” The response to Saudi Arabia’s murder of Jamal Khashoggi demonstrated that individual member states, such as Germany, can levy sanctions independent of the Union. No individual EU member, however, has been willing to join the US in sanctioning Dodik.
Inadequate targeting
In addition to not bringing allies along in support of sanctions, Washington has done an inadequate job of targeting Dodik’s network of political and economic accomplices and proxies. In 2022, the US Treasury, acting on a new executive order that includes corruption as a targetable offensive, sanctioned a Dodik-linked construction firm and a TV station. This well-intentioned attempt has yet to bear fruit.
The construction firm, Integral Inženjering, continues to profit from EU-funded projects, such as a newly-constructed bridge to Croatia. It participates in European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) projects, despite the US being a founding member of the bank and its biggest capital contributor. Alternativna Televizija, formerly a USAID-supported outlet that Dodik’s proxies took over in 2017, has continued with the same pro-Dodik coverage as before the sanctions.
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
While the US failure to dedicate significant attention to Bosnia has placed the region’s security at risk, it is not too late to make tactical adjustments to sanctions policy. The limited goal should be stopping Dodik’s attacks on the peace agreement.
Get real
Policymakers first need to be honest about the present failure. State Department officials regularly claim, without concrete evidence, that sanctions are having an impact. American lawmakers, rather than serving as an accountability mechanism, are reinforcing the State Department’s narrative. Senator Shaheen, usually an astute foreign policy observer, stated that Dodik, “is upset about the U.S. sanctions, so clearly they are having an impact.”
But merely upsetting a targeted individual is an unserious metric. The US must hold itself to a higher standard. The American-led Dayton Agreement provides ample political and military leverage to maintain regional stability.
Stop the useless meetings
Second, U.S. officials should stop meeting with Dodik and other sanctioned individuals until they start reversing their destabilizing policies. Six years of meetings have not achieved anything other than making US officials appear feckless and incompetent. In a symbolic example of his approach to the US, Dodik humiliated the American ambassador to Bosnia in 2017 by refusing to shake her extended hand. Despite his clear contempt for Washington, every US Ambassador and visiting State Department official since then has continued to meet with him.
Dodik uses these meetings as a spectacle to demonstrate to local audiences his strength relative to the superpower’s emissaries. Frequently he will insult U.S. officials, or even walk out of meetings. None of these meetings have resulted in substantive policy changes on his part. If Washington wants to effect change, its officials need to stop serving as props in this humiliating charade. He is not a good faith actor. Dodik is an aspiring strongman who respects strength, not goodwill gestures.
Target the enablers
Third, the US needs to target Dodik’s economic and political enablers. Earlier rounds of sanctions against Dodik-affiliated entities demonstrated that a business doesn’t need to be registered in Dodik’s name to be considered under his control. While sanctioning Dodik-affiliated television station ATV was a good first step, Washington should go further and lead sanctions against the crown jewel in Dodik’s collection of businesses. That is ATV’s sole owner at the time of sanctioning, a tech services firm named Prointer.
Institutions controlled by Dodik’s political party have awarded Prointer tens of millions of dollars in no-bid IT contracts. The bulk of Prointer’s offering is American software services – 15 of the 22 companies it lists as “technology partners” are US-based. Dodik has confirmed that his son works for the firm. That gives credence to allegations that he was secretly managing the firm on behalf of his father. Prointer is one part of a vast business empire – stretching from real estate to fruit exports – that provides Dodik with unrivaled financial resources to maintain power and pursue his destabilizing agenda.
Avoid contradictions
The US should also sanction the political enablers of Dodik’s secessionist agenda. Treasury’s recent sanctioning of Dodik’s right-hand woman, Zeljka Cvijanovic, is an important step after six years of misguided and contradictory policies. Both Cvijanovic and Dodik celebrate convicted war criminals, engage in genocide denial, defy constitutional court rulings, and call for secession.
The US also appropriately sanctioned Dragan Stankovic for expropriating central government property, but it was Cvijanovic who signed into law the unconstitutional framework for him to do so. The UK sanctioned Cvijanovic in 2021 for violating the Dayton Agreement, but American officials continued to host her in Washington. This accommodating behavior, despite her secessionists policies, only served to embolden separatists by implying that the US was not willing to reinforce its rhetoric of upholding the Dayton Agreement.
Washington should not put itself in such a contradictory and counterproductive situation again. It must demonstrate the same decisiveness that it did in 2004 when it sanctioned every single member of the Serbian Democratic Party for obstructing war crimes prosecutions. Additionally, it banned from US entry every coalition partner of the SDS. These moves sent a clear message about US values, policies, and commitment to upholding the Dayton Agreement. They also contributed to SDS’ political collapse by effectively isolating a whole network of destabilizing individuals.
Secondary sanctions
Fourth, the US should impose so-called secondary sanctions on Dodik himself and his family, forcing non-US firms and individuals to choose between doing business with the U.S. or with Dodik. This type of sanctions leverages US dollar dominance in global trade and American market power to effectively compel non-US entities into implementing American policies. Such sanctions, for example, would apply to any bank dealing in US dollars – practically every legitimate bank on the planet – and conducting business with Dodik.
Secondary sanctions can be controversial for many reasons, including for imposing opportunity costs on non-U.S. businesses for the sake of American interests. While there is rising pushback against them – from China to Russia and plenty of countries in between – there are no American allies that engage in significant business relations with Dodik, meaning that secondary sanctions would be less of a burden than other examples. Additionally, secondary sanctions would partially compensate for the current absence of multilateral sanctions.
Multilateral sanctions
Fifth, irrespective of whether the U.S. implements secondary sanctions, it should ensure that sanctions against Dodik and his allies are multilateral, rather than easily evadable unilateral ones. The US should, at a minimum, coordinate its targeting with the UK to avoid an inconsistent approach, as was the case with Cvijanovic. While getting agreement from all 27 EU member states to sanction Dodik may be unlikely, Washington can still convince individual member states to levy their own.
Germany, for example, has already suspended development projects in the RS, but it should also employ a more targeted approach by punishing destabilizing individuals instead of the whole citizenry.
WHY THIS MATTERS
History demonstrates that seemingly isolated Balkan tensions can quickly escalate to regionally destabilizing events. Yet Europe lacks the willpower, coordination, and capacity to address continental security challenges without American support. To avert humanitarian catastrophe and distraction from strategic priorities, the US should refine its existing sanctions regime.
Dodik’s current trajectory makes peace unsustainable. Future actions to uphold the Dayton Agreement will inevitably require more funds and bandwidth at a time when there is already one war in Europe. The current US sanctions policy undermines its earlier investments in the region and squanders its influence. US taxpayers contributed over $15 billion from 1992 to 2002 on military operations to stabilize BiH and implement the Dayton Peace Agreement.
A National Defense University report assessed that Bosnia was the “exception” to otherwise “poorly coordinated and executed foreign interventions.” This US investment created unprecedented leverage to ensure stability in a volatile region. The current sanctions policy, however, is undermining this investment and making it likely that Dodik will collapse a US-sponsored peace agreement.
The better answer to the Dayton question is bankruptcy now

Thank you for the map, Gerard Toal!
Last week I engaged in the following exchange with Marko Atila Hoare (@markoah). He knows much more about Bosnia and Herzegovina than I ever will:
Marko: But do you think additional EUFOR troops would be a good thing ? I am concerned that if and when R[epublika S[rspska] finally secedes, EUFOR troops would protect it from pro-state BiH forces (in the name of ‘peace’). Even if they just reinforced the Dayton order, that would not be good.
Me: Dayton>secession, at least for now
Marko: Yes; maintenance of Dayton, potentially indefinitely, is a worse danger than an RS secession bid, which could at least be resisted and would allow BiH to repudiate the Dayton straitjacket. Better that RS becomes Transnistria than that it remains a pillar of an apartheid BiH.
We are now in the third decade since then of efforts to govern Bosnia and Herzegovina through dysfunctional powersharing arrangements. It is reasonable for people to ask whether continuing is better than the alternative.
The Dayton question
That is the Dayton question. Is it better to maintain the peaceful but unsatisfying status quo? Or would it be better to let Dayton go and see what will happen? The RS has already salami-sliced its way more than halfway there. It recently passed a law negating the authority of Bosnian Constitutional Court.
Of course the RS might not become a new Transnistria. It might instead become independent or the westernmost province of Serbia. Its secession might also precipitate a series of ethnic rebellions in Kosovo, Macedonia, and even in Serbia. That could be disastrous.
But the more immediate question is what would happen inside Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Brcko
The northeastern town of Brcko was the center of gravity of the last Bosnian war. The reason there was a Dayton negotiation was that the US forced a ceasefire to prevent the Bosnian Federation (Bosniak and Croat) forces from taking it in the fall of 1995. Banja Luka was about to fall. Ten days more would have decided the fate of Brcko.
Answering the Dayton question requires imagining what would happen with RS secession. My guess is that the RS sooner rather than later will try to take over Brcko, because it can’t survive intact without the northeast Bosnian town that links its two wings.
The EUFOR troops responsible for preserving Bosnia and Herzegovina’s territorial integrity lack the capability to prevent an RS takeover. It is not clear whether forces loyal to the Sarajevo government would be able to do so. That is a vital factor. If they can, then the RS will suffer a terminal defeat and a new negotiation for a more functional constitution would become feasible.
If Sarajevo can’t prevent an RS takeover of Brcko, the RS could secede but the World Bank, IMF, Western governments and investors would cut it off, forcing it into bankruptcy and further into the arms of Russia and Serbia. That would be a source of Schadenfreude for some, but it is not what I would call a winning wicket.
Win win
Far better would be an outcome that blocks secession but still forces a renegotiation of the Dayton agreements. The West should bankrupt the RS before it secedes rather than after. All Western assistance to the RS should come to a halt until all RS moves towards secession, including its law negating the authority of the Bosnian Constitutional Court, are reversed. That would open an opportunity for a rescue effort, executed through Sarajevo, on condition that the constitution be renegotiated.
The EU and US would need to insist on a new constitution that eliminates the elaborate powersharing arrangements in the Dayton version. One person one vote and strong protection for individual political and economic rights are the ideal. But a new constitution should also provide strong protection for group rights when it comes to education, language, religion, and culture. I might prefer a constitution that eliminates the two entities and cantons in the Federation, but that is for Bosnians to decide.