Tag: Balkans
Refighting the Bosnian war
The arrest in Vienna on a Serbian warrant of the Bosnian general who led Sarajevo’s defense at the beginning of the Bosnian war in 1992 is the latest Belgrade effort to rewrite history. Jovan Divjak, an ethnic Serb, is accused of war crimes for an incident in May 1992. During the UN-negotiated evacuation of a Yugoslav National Army (JNA) general an his aides from Sarajevo, the UN-protected convoy, which without authorization from the Bosnian side carried soldiers, weapons and files, was attacked and 18 people killed.
The merits of the war crimes accusations have already been considered in London last year, in the case of Ejup Ganic. The British court found that the Serbian authorities had abused the judicial process and released Ganic, after months house detention.
But if you want to see for yourself Divjak’s role, get the documentary The Death of Yugoslavia (it’s available from Google Videos on line) and watch the general call for those firing on the convoy to stop. It’s in part 4. Start with Divjak at about minute 28, and watch the part about the detention by the JNA of Bosnian President Izetbegovic, which is essential background to the convoy incident at minute 44.
Why would Belgrade pursue this legal case now? Serbia’s current leadership is mainly focused on getting the country into the EU, but it is also determined to satisfy nationalist sentiment by establishing that Serbs were victims during the wars in Yugoslavia. I have no problem myself in acknowledging that: Serbs suffered not only during the war, but also thereafter under the continued autocracy of Slobodan Milosevic.
But it is past time–almost 20 years have gone by–for Serbs to adopt a version of history that is recognizable by their antagonists. Arresting Divjak is as much an abuse of judicial process as the arrest of Ejup Ganic and dishonors Serbia’s democracy.
PS: The thesis that Belgrade is refighting the Bosnian war is elaborated in more detail and with ample support in an RFE piece by Nenad Pejic. He writes
Standing behind all these cases are figures in Serbia’s security organs, police, and military who are backed by far-right political forces….Despite having all these cases dismissed one after another — and the case against Divjak will surely be dismissed as well — the rightists have achieved their goal. Serbian media covered all the arrests with patriotic jingoism, and ethnic tensions across the Balkans were inflamed. Divisions were deepened. Tolerance suffered another setback. The soil was prepared for future conflicts or partitions. And pro-Western forces in Serbia have been sent a strong message about the power of the far right. They are still fighting a war that has been lost.
PPS: I guess if the Austrian Foreign Minister thinks the extradition of Divjak is “unthinkable” that means it won’t happen. But the request is still an embarrassment to Serbia.
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“Bosnia and Herzegovina does not exist beyond the entities”
With gratitude for the translation, I have posted Milorad Dodik’s letter to the Ambassadors of the member countries of the EU and Peace Implementation Council in BiH, in which among many other things he claims that “Bosnia and Herzegovina does not exist beyond the entities.”
The letter has been carefully prepared by Dodik’s lawyers and merits being read in its entirety. Not being a lawyer, I would not want to get into a tussle on the legal issues it raises.
But it is also a political document, one intended to appeal particularly to Americans, whose constitution is cited repeatedly as justification for Dodik’s views.
What are those views? In short, that the Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina never existed (“The only thing true is that the „Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina“ did never exist at all in accordance with the international law”), that Republika Srpska and the Croat Community of Herzeg-Bosna were the only legitimate institutions in Bosnia before Dayton (i.e. the Bosniaks who were loyal to the Republic don’t count), that the High Representative is an anti-democratic institution imposed on unwilling subjects, and that the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina that emerged from Dayton is nothing more than the two entities, supplemented later by Brcko district, and can have no functions other than those explicitly assigned to it in the Dayton constitution, or delegated to it by the entities. Not once are the requirements of NATO or EU membership mentioned.
I won’t quarrel with this letter point by point–I’ll leave that to others. I’ll just note that the history is dramatically incorrect and even offensive, as the letter is addressed to the representatives of states that had recognized the Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina, despite the genocidal efforts of Republika Srpska and its Belgrade master to wipe it off the map.
More importantly for the future, Dodik’s views are not compatible with a functioning Bosnia and Herzegovina that can meet the obligations of NATO and European Union membership. For anyone who still believes Dodik can be cajoled into supporting such a state, I recommend reading the whole thing. There is no way.
What Dodik is committed to here (and elsewhere) is the creation of a Republika Srpska that is sovereign in everything but recognition, which he no doubt believes will follow some day when the internationals tire further and finally accept his version of Bosnian history. He is also committed to grabbing enough state property to keep his ship afloat for a few more years, as it is in parlous financial condition.
The question is whether Washington and Brussels will read, understand and react in ways that make it clear that the only Bosnia and Herzegovina they are prepared to accept is one that can negotiate membership in NATO and the EU. That state will need to go beyond Dayton. The next test for Dodik is whether he is prepared to create a Sarajevo government that has all the powers it requires to take on the responsibilities of NATO and EU membership. I’m not holding my breath.
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Good news for Kosovo, but tough talks ahead
I count as good news both the formation of the second Hashim Thaci government in Kosovo as well as the conviction of Serbia’s former assistant Interior Minister of war crimes and crimes against humanity by the Hague Tribunal.
Of course the story is more complicated than that. Thaci still faces accusations, but little evidence and no indictment, for serious crimes associated with organ trafficking that allegedly occurred in the aftermath of the NATO/Yugoslavia war more than a decade ago. His choice of Behgjet Pacolli as President of Kosovo, essential to gaining a majority in parliament, has also raised questions, as Pacolli’s construction business prospered doing work in Russia, which has opposed Kosovo’s independence. He was Both Pacolli and Thaci gained their positions with razor thin majorities.
Whatever the allegations and the size of their majority, their elections, and the appointment of a Serb as deputy prime minister, demonstrate that Kosovo’s institutions are functioning, if occasionally with difficulty. The need to repeat December’s elections in several municipalities showed both the challenges governance faces in Pristina and the capacity of its institutions to correct mistakes.
That said, Thaci and Pacolli have a difficult road ahead. Declaring yourself ready for talks with Belgrade and preparing for them seriously are two different things. Will they go to talks with Belgrade as a government with a razor-thin majority? Or will Pristina form a broader negotiating team, as it did for the Ahtisaari negotiations? The naming of the talented and tough-minded Edita Tahiri to lead the Kosovo team bodes well.
I hear the Europeans will focus in the first instance on customs on the Serbia/Kosovo border (boundary to the Serbs). This is an issue with virtues: there could be real benefits to the Kosovo, if Serbia agrees to accept its products. In addition, cooperation on customs implies some level of recognition that the authorities you are dealing with are properly constituted and have at least some sovereign attributes. There could also be some real benefits to Serbia, if smuggling comes under better control and if the European Union is willing to count the outcome of the dialogue as sufficient to allow Serbia to proceed to candidacy status.
But if the EU is going to go that far, Pristina will need to be certain that Serbia cannot become an EU member without accepting and recognizing Kosovo as a sovereign state. Several EU members have now said as much, but agreement on that position at 27 is difficult because of the five EU members that have not recognized Kosovo. Pristina is going to need some real statecraft to ensure that EU interest in accelerating Serbia’s membership does not come at Kosovo’s expense.
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Bosnia anyone?
Yes, there were quite a few of you out there interested in Macedonoia, and then the piece about Bill Montgomery piece about Bill Montgomery grabbed a lot of you interested in Serbia. What about Bosnia? My latest is here. It is a response to a piece by Ted Galen Carpenter advocating partition.
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Wasting your money, Tomislav?
This is inside baseball, but for those of you who might be interested: former U.S. Ambassador William Montgomery’s September 2010 registration with the Justice Department as an agent for Tomislav Nikolic, President of the Serbian Progressive Party.
I would be the last to deny a retired Foreign Service officer whatever income he can find, and 7500 euros a month is not pocket change, but I would also want to know whom he represents when he gives interviews calling for the dissolution of Bosnia. To be fair he was doing this even before the date of his registration, and he is of course entitled to his views, which are contrary to mine.
The partitions Montgomery proposes are sure formulas for re-igniting conflict in the Balkans, with devastating results, including the formation of an Islamic Republic in central Bosnia. Remember Bill? We called that the “non-viable, rump Islamic Republic that would be a platform for Iranian terrorism in Europe.” Hard for me to see how that is in the U.S. or Serbian interest. But there is of course no longer a need for Bill to worry about that. He works for Nikolic.
The bigger problem may be for Nikolic: he is going to have a hard time being welcomed in Washington unless he takes a pro-Europe, One Bosnia line. Associating himself with Bill Montgomery’s advocacy of partition of Bosnia and Kosovo is no way to overcome Nikolic’s past association with the hard-line, anti-European ethnic nationalism of the Serb Radical Party, from which he split in 2008.
What does Montgomery do for Nikolic’s money? He’ll call his old friends at State, the National Security Council and Congress to get appointments. This is something that the head of a party in the Serbian parliament could and should have done by his own secretary, or by the Serbian embassy.
If that doesn’t work, I’ll help him, for free. I am vigorously in favor of Washington hearing from all parts of the political spectrum in Serbia. But it is simply outrageous that people get paid to make appointments in Washington–our public servants should all be told to tell paid agents that appointments can only be made directly, not through intermediaries.
If Nikolic wants to pay Montgomery to write his talking points, that’s fine with me. But they’ll have to say something different from what Montgomery has been saying in public.
Wasting your money, Tomislav?
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The world beyond Egypt
I’ve been so caught up in Egypt for 10 days, and Tunisia before that, I’m feeling the need for one of those quickie updates, so here goes (even if there is relatively little progress to report):
- Iran: P5+1 Ankara meeting at the end of January went badly, some say because Ahmedinejad did not take advantage of what the Americans were offering. I don’t think we’ve heard the last of it.
- Pakistan: Messy (that’s what I call it when a President has to call for a roundtable conference), but no big crisis.
- North Korea: Quiescent for the moment, but mil/mil talks have stalled.
- Afghanistan: Lots of reports of military progress from David Petraeus, and some sign that the Taliban may be looking for negotiations, or at least that is how I interpret their putting out the word that they might break with Al Qaeda.
- Iraq: some Arab/Kurdish progress that will allow oil to flow north. My friend Reidar Visser doesn’t think that’s good, but I do.
- Israel/Palestine: Biggest news has been the Palestine papers, widely interpreted to suggest Palestinian weakness, ineptitude or both. I think they show the Israelis overplaying their hand to no good purpose.
- Egypt: Trouble. This is what I said at the end of the year: “succession plans founder as the legitimacy of the parliament is challenged in the streets and courts. Mubarak hangs on, but the uncertainties grow.” Did I get it right? All but that part about the courts anyway.
- Haiti: Presidential runoff postponed to March 20. President Preval’s favorite will not be on the ballot; former first lady Mirlande Manigat will face singer Michel Martelly.
- Al Qaeda: No news is good news.
- Yemen/Somalia: Yemen’s President Saleh has so far proved immune to Egyptian flu, but itmay not last forever. Parliament in Somalia has extended its own mandate for three more years, dismaying the paymasters in Washington and other capitals. Nice democracy lesson.
- Sudan: The independence referendum passed, as predicted (no genius in that). Lots of outstanding issues under negotiation. President Bashir is behaving himself, some say because of the carrots Washington has offered. In my experience indictment has that effect on most people.
- Lebanon: Indictments delivered, not published, yet.
- Syria: President Bashar al Assad is doing even better than Bashir of Yemen. No demonstrations materialized at all.
- Ivory Coast: Gbagbo and his entourage are still waiting for their first-class plane tickets. African Union is factfinding, in preparation for mediation. Could this be any slower?
- Zimbabwe: Mugabe continues to defy, sponsors riot in Harare. No real progress on implementation of powersharing agreement with the opposition.
- Balkans: Bosnia stuck on constitutional reform, Kosovo/Serbia dialogue blocked by government formation in Pristina, Macedonia still hung up on the “name” issue. See a pattern here? Some people just recycle their old problems.
- Tunisia: At last some place where there is progress: the former ruling party has been shuttered. Don’t hold your breath for that to happen in Egypt!
PS: on Algeria, see this interesting piece.
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