Tag: Balkans
The Balkans are coming apart
I’ve been too committed to book-writing to comment much lately, but the deteriorating situation in the Balkans prompts this post.
Bosnia faces the risk of secession
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Serb member of the state presidency, Milorad Dodik, is reiterating his intention to declare independence. He nominally seeks incorporation into Serbia. His current issue is that the state judiciary won’t allow him to expropriate public land in Republika Srpska (RS), which he needs as collateral for the loans he will be refinancing from Russia and other dubious sources this summer.
But that contingency should not distract from the main objective. Dodik has long aimed to be free of the scrutiny that comes from both the state and the international community. His theft of RS resources and abuse of the funds Russia supplies make him vulnerable to prosecution. Dodik needs to free himself from Bosnia and find a home where he won’t risk arrest. It is unlikely Serbia will open its doors, as that would offend Brussels and Washington too much. But Dodik will be content with an independent RS.
Kosovo does too
In Kosovo, the situation has gone from bad to worse. Serbian President Vucic has demonstrated in two ways that he controls the Serbs who live north of the Ibar River. First, Sunday’s elections were peaceful. That could not have happened without his orders. Take it as confirmation that Belgrade ordered all the rioting there in the past. Second, the overwhelming majority of Serbs did not vote. Vucic ordered that too. Those citizens who did vote elected four Albanians as mayors in Serb-majority municipalities. Vucic and his prime minister reacted with the fury of ethnic nationalists offended that the minority decided the outcome, because of the boycott they ordered.
I wouldn’t want to be one of those mayors. They will get little or no cooperation from either local Serb officials or the majority populations. Vucic’s fury is intended to hide the fact that he will continue to de facto govern the four northern Serb-majority municipalities from Belgrade, using its network of security agents and organized criminals. Pristina will have a hard time getting anything done there.
Montenegro has already fallen
Vucic has already captured Montenegro. He has used savvy hybrid means with Russian support to elect a new president. Jakov Milatovic claims to be pro-EU but is more than affectionate towards Serbia. The Serbian Church, pro-Serbian political parties, and populist mobilization against corruption combined to chase from office Milo Djukanovic. He had held power for most of the last three decades, governing with ethnic minority group support. Upcoming June 11 parliamentary elections will give Milatovic a deeply pro-Serb, anti-minority majority in parliament.
Montenegro is a NATO member. Serbia claims militarily “neutral” status. This should be enough to prevent any annexation, but it also weakens the Alliance, inserting in its midst another spoiler like Hungary.
No accident
It is no accident that parallel efforts at removing Serbs from non-Serb governing authority are occurring in three countries. President Vucic is pursuing the “Serbian world,” that is a state for all Serbs that incorporates territory that lies in neighboring countries. This is “Greater Serbia,” Milosevic’s goal, by another name. In Bosnia, he needs only allow Dodik to do his thing. In Kosovo, he is taking advantage of Prime Minister Kurti’s reluctance to begin negotiations on a “self-management” mechanism for the Serbs in Kosovo. In Montenegro, elections have delivered what Vucic wanted.
While the Americans and Europeans continue to avow that Serbia is embracing the West, in fact Vucic has turned his country definitively to the East. For the “Serbian world” to become a reality, Belgrade needs to hope Russia will win in Ukraine. That would provide the precedent Vucic needs for annexing parts of Kosovo and Bosnia. He will also need China to provide the financing Greater Serbia will require. Montenegro he needn’t annex–just remarry to recreate the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro, which existed 2003-06. Or cohabitate with lots of bilateral agreements an inch short of amalgamation.
The weak-kneed Americans and Europeans
Vucic knows the Americans and Europeans won’t want to accept de jure a Greater Serbia. But he hopes they will learn to live with a de facto one. They in turn are proving soft. Washington has been trying to ignore Dodik and mollify Vucic. American diplomats vigorously advocate for the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities he sees as the vehicle for Serb “self-management.” The Americans have also revivified military cooperation and provided lots of financing through multilateral European development banks. Complaints about corruption in Serbia are few and far between. This appeasement has gotten no positive results.
Splits handicap the Europeans. Hungarian Prime Minister Orban acts as a protector for both Vucic and Dodik, preventing sanctions against both. France and the Netherlands have slowed enlargement prospects for Macedonia, Albania, and Bosnia. That diminishes the EU’s appeal also in Serbia and Montenegro. The five EU member states that have not recognized Kosovo prevent a real consensus in its favor, even in the relatively non-controversial vote this week at the Council of Europe to Pristina’s membership process.
A change of direction is needed
The US and EU are failing in the Balkans. They need to change direction. Their basic analysis is flawed. They have been relying on Serbia as the pivotal state in the region to bring stability, in cooperation with Croatia and Albania. But Serbia is a revisionist power. It wants to govern all Serbs in the region. Croatia and Albania have lesser ambitions, but in the same direction: to control their compatriots in neighboring Bosnia and Kosovo.
Washington and Brussels need a far more vigorous, united, and principled approach. That would support the rights of individual citizens, whatever their ethnicity. It would counter ethnic nationalism wherever it abuses minorities. It would reinforce the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all the region’s states. And it would welcome to the West only those who demonstrate real solidarity with the West.
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The Hague goes astray
I did this interview yesterday for for Sokol Berisha of Periskopi:
The rial against the former leaders of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA)- Hashim Thaçi, Kadri Veseli, Jakup Krasniqi and Rexhep Selimi – who the Office of Specia Prosecutor claims to have committed war crimes, has begun this Monday in the Special Court of Hague.
Q: If the KLA leaders are found guilty and sentenced to prison, do you think that this will damage the image of Kosovo internationally? How do you see this process?
A: It would certainly damage the image of the KLA, but it seems to me the Kosovo state has some things to its credit: creation of the Tribunal, the resignation of the Head of State, and his appearance with his colleagues in The Hague.
Q: Many have said that this process is not against KLA itself, but its leaders. In your opinion, can KLA and its leaders be distinguished?
A: Yes, they can be distinguished, but the Court’s indictment doesn’t do that.
Q: The US president, Joe Biden, has called the former president of Kosovo, Hashim Thaçi, “The George Washington of Kosovo,” and on the other hand, NATO’s intervention in the conflict on the side of the KLA and against the forces of Slobodan Milosevic seemed as a strong proof that KLA and its leaders were in their right to protect the people of Kosovo. Is this discourse now in danger?
A: Yes, it is in danger because the accusations are so wide-ranging.
Q: The report of Dick Marty was crucial in establishing The Kosovo Specialist Chambers & Specialist Prosecutor’s Office in Hague. Now that this report is no longer discussed, do you think that the whole process has changed its aim?
A: I do. The mandate of the Chambers is limited to issues in that report. But very little of what is in the report is in the accusations against the KLA leaders.
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Trump isn’t the only accused president
While the United States is understandably obsessed with judicial proceedings against Donald Trump, another president and his one-time comrades in arms is on trial in The Hague: Kosovo President Hashim Thaci. There is one common thread: Jack Smith was the prosecutor in The Hague before taking up his position in Washington to conduct investigations and possibly prosecute Trump. An expansive view of his mandate seems to be his trademark.
As the trial at the Specialist Chambers in The Hague started on Monday, Deutsche Welle‘s Elona Elezi asked some questions and I responded:
Q: Mr.Serwer, how do you consider the trial against Thaçi and other three former commanders of KLA?
A: The Specialist Chambers and Specialist Prosecutor’s Office “have jurisdiction over crimes against humanity, war crimes and other crimes under Kosovo law in relation to allegations reported in the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly Report of 7 January 2011.” I am not a lawyer, but in my layman’s way of thinking the trial has departed markedly from this mandate. It seems to have forgotten the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly report.
Q: Does it diminish the role of Kosovo Liberation Army?
A: I’d say it exaggerates the role of the KLA in the abuses committed in Kosovo. The main allegations in the Council of Europe report appear to be unfounded and have been left out of the charges against the accused. The prosecutor is pursuing other, less specific, allegations against the KLA leadership quite unrelated to the CoE report.
Q: Will there be any implications if the court finds them guilty?
A: Certainly there will implications for the accused. They will be punished. But it will be a long time before there is a verdict. Their pre-trial detention seems to me unjust.
Q: In a macro perspective, does this trial affect the relationships between Kosovo and Serbia?
A: The trial is already exacerbating resentments in Kosovo, soothing consciences in Serbia, and making it harder for Pristina to normalize relations with Belgrade. That will get worse.
It was a mistake for Kosovo to agree to establish this court without a reciprocal arrangement with Serbia, that is a court with jurisdiction over “crimes against humanity, war crimes and other crimes” inside Serbia, where three American brothers were killed shortly after the 1999 war. Serbia was the main miscreant in the 1990s. The one-sided nature of the Specialist Chambers and Prosecutor’s Office prevents it from doing justice to the crimes Belgrade committed.
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Montenegro begins a test that won’t be easy
Last time I talked with Montenegrin President Djukanovic, maybe 7 or 8 years ago, I told him he lacked only one thing: a pro-European opposition that could alternate with his own coalition in power. Yesterday’s election will determine whether Montenegro has in the interim acquired it. A recently elected candidate for mayor of Podgorica, Jakov Milatovic, won with 60% of the vote, defeating Djukanovic after he had dominated politics in Montenegro for more than a generation.
There are serious doubts
Milatovic leads a party with the right name, “Europe Now!,” and the right professional career. He has been Economy Minister, after a stint in various private banks as well as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. He holds an Oxford MPhil in economics and has spent time in the US and Austria as well.
But there is good reason for doubt. Milatovic’s supporters include the pro-Russian and pro-Serbian segment of Montenegrin politics. Many opposed independence and NATO membership. Some celebrated with Serbian flags, not Montenegrin ones. Those are Serb ethnic nationalists and resent Montenegro’s minorities, who have long supported Djukanovic. Even if Milatovic is seriously pro-Europe, it is not clear whether that will be the direction he can lead the country in.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled for June 11. The outcome will likely determine whether Europe Now can deliver. Dritan Abazovic, the current caretaker prime minister, is hoping to lead a centrist coalition thereafter. But Abazovic himself has been beholden to the pro-Serbian political parties in the past. He signed an agreement that privileged the Serbian Orthodox Church and has cozied up to Belgrade, while offering himself to Washington and Brussels as a sincere, Western-oriented reformist.
Keep the pressure on
Montenegro was until recently the Balkans front-runner for EU accession. Now Western pressure and incentives will be vital to ensuring a pro-European outcome. The Serb nationalist minority in Montenegrin politics is large and well-funded. The Russians will try to use it to destabilize NATO and poison the relationship with the EU. The all too necessary corruption investigations will cast doubt on many in the former governing coalition and damage its prospects.
Alternation in power is the ultimate test of any democracy. Montenegro has so far passed, ironically due to Djukanovic. He managed the transitional governments of the past two years skillfully. Now that Djukanovic will be out of the picture, Milatovic should aim to do as well, while keeping the country moving in the European direction. It won’t be easy.
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Stevenson’s army, April 2
– Is Bulgaria next to tilt toward Russia?
– What does Hungary want from Sweden?
– How much is enough for defense? Prof. Cancian analyzes.
– Why do the Saudis want nuclear power?
-Why does China want a port in Croatia?
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Politics won’t wait for a court decision
Donald Trump’s indictment dominates the news today and will remain a major issue until a plea bargain or verdict. The Republicans are claiming it is politically motivated and unjustified. The Democrats are claiming it is a response to malfeasance and an assertion of the rule of law.
What we don’t know
The truth is we don’t even know what he stands accused of. The grand jury that indicted him holds its proceedings in secret. Only at his arraignment next week will we learn the charges for certain.
These might be, as the Republicans are claiming, election law violations associated with his hush money payments to a porn star in 2016. Or, as many Democrats believe, they may involve business fraud related to those same payments, which were allegedly recorded in his company books as legal fees and laundered through his personal attorney.
No one knows at this point. It might be wise to refrain from comment on the charges until they become public.
What we do know
No other American president has ever been indicted. Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment. Any number of presidents have been guilty of malfeasance, before, during, and after their time in office. But the nation’s prosecutors have not seen fit to drag them into court. This is the basis of the argument that Trump’s indictment is “unprecedented.”
But it is not. Lots of prominent people are indicted. Prosecutors go after company chief executives, members of Congress, lawyers, and yes professors. The list of indicted Federal officials is long. Unless you believe a president or former president should be above the law, you should not be objecting on grounds of “precedent” to indictment of a former president.
Indictment of presidents and prime ministers in other countries is common. Prime Minister Netanyahu is a prominent current example, but so too are former Kosovo President Thaci and former Serbian President Milosevic. The list of former heads of government later imprisoned is also long, but of course not all of them deserved what they got.
Only time will tell
We are going to have to wait a while–maybe even a year or two–to learn whether Trump’s indictment will lead to a plea bargain, acquittal, or conviction. In the meanwhile, the indictment will become a political football, with both Democrats and Republicans trying to score big before the November 2024 election. Most Americans believe an indictment should disqualify a candidate from running for president. But Republicans mostly back Trump and think the indictment is an unjustified political move.
Politics won’t wait for a court decision and the inevitable appeal if Trump is found guilty. In the meanwhile, many other investigations are ongoing. Some involve potentially far more serious violations than the current indictment, including election interference in Georgia and insurrection for the January 6 riot at The Capitol. Only time will tell how this all shakes out.
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