Tag: Balkans

Geopolitics gives people in the Balkans an opportunity

Posted in Daniel Serwer - February 12, 2022 - 0 Comment

I participated this morning by Zoom in a conference in Podgorica entitled “Podgorica Plenum: Quo Vadis Balkans?” organized by the Regional Academy for Democratic Development in Belgrade. My panel addressed “What can socialdemocratic politicans and CSOs further do?” This was the lineup:
• Ivan Vuković, Mayor of Podgorica and Deputy President of DPS, Montenegro
• Benjamina Karić, Mayor of Sarajevo, Social Democratic Party, Bosnia and Herzegovina
• Daniel Serwer, Professor, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (via ZOOM)
• Stipe Mesić, Former President of Croatia 2000-2010 (via ZOOM)

I was asked to focus on the broader geopolitical perspective:

  1. It is a pleasure to be with you, if only remotely. As Mayor Vukovic will know, however, I have a good Montenegrin source in the next office to mine—his cousin is my colleague at SAIS.
  2. I hear from many people who live in the Western Balkans, especially in Bosnia and Serbia, that nothing has changed since the breakup of Yugoslavia.
  3. This reflects their disappointment in what has happened in the last 25 years. I share that disappointment. I would like to have seen far more progress.
  4. But it is not objectively true. Average per capita GDP is twice as high as it was before the 1990s wars. Apart from Covid-19, it is safe to travel throughout former Yugoslavia, regardless of ethnic identity or national origin. You can say pretty much what you want in all the former Yugoslav republics and in Albania, even if organizing and publishing are still not always free. Catholics, Orthodox, and Muslims mostly worship as they like, often in renovated churches and mosques.
  5. Progress has halted, with the end of what Americans have come to call the unipolar moment.
  6. The Balkans have not had an easy time of it since. All the Balkan states are heavily dependent on EU economic growth. The 2007/8 financial crisis, Greek financial crisis and economic collapse, the flood of immigrants after 2011 from the greater Middle East, and the Brexit referendum in 2016 gave Europe more urgent and higher priority problems than the Balkans.
  7. These developments also made Europe more cautious about the prospects for enlargement.
  8. So things may be a lot better in the Balkans than they were in the 1990s, but today’s world is dramatically different from the one that existed then.
  9. While still globally dominant, the US faces regional challenges from China, Russia, Iran and even North Korea that take priority in Washington over the Balkans.
  10. The Balkans in general, and Bosnia and Kosovo in particular, were the objects of top-tier attention in the 1990s. They now get much lower priority.
  11. That is true in Europe as well, where Brexit, Ukraine, Syria, Libya, and illegal immigration are issues that cast a shadow over Balkan aspirations to join Europe.
  12. At the same time, Moscow and Beijing are engaging more than ever before in the Balkans.
  13. The Russians are using assassination, media manipulation, rented crowds, arms sales, and political financing to slow if not halt progress towards NATO and the EU.
  14. The Chinese are using their finances to loan, build and buy. Caveat emptor of course, though Beijing’s behavior is a lot less underhanded than Moscow’s and likely to produce some positive results for those Balkan countries and companies that know how to drive a good bargain.
  15. Turkey—a strong force in the Balkans for historical, geographic, and cultural reasons—has taken a dramatic turn in a more Islamist and autocratic direction.
  16. None of these powers share the European and American commitment to liberal democracy, that is pluralistic politics based on individual rights. They are far more inclined to ethnic nationalism.
  17. Even the US had an ethnic nationalist president who opened the door to changing Balkan borders to accommodate ethnic differences—an idea that makes no sense to a liberal democrat.
  18. Europe too has a Hungarian Prime Minister who is a committed ethnic nationalist as well as other presidents and prime ministers who flirt with nationalist populism.
  19. Liberal democratic influence in the Balkans has declined. The autocratic influence—if I can use that umbrella term to refer to the different roles of Russia, China, and Turkey—has grown.
  20. They are finding fertile ground. Ethnic populism is also thriving in the Balkans: it reignites and normalizes hate speech, divides people, and encourages untruthful historical revisionism.
  21. The surge of disinformation polarizes political discourse and accentuates social cleavages so that compromise is seen as a sign of betrayal and defeat.
  22. My bottom line: ready or not, responsibility for keeping Western aspirations and ideals alive now rests with the people of the Balkans: their governments, citizens, and society. The question is, can you do it and how?
  23. One ingredient for success is apparent on this panel: politicians committed to liberal democracy who are prepared to do what is needed to serve citizens and win their votes.
  24. Another important ingredient is civil society: the non-governmental organizations who take on the thinking and organizing required to support serious political and economic reforms.
  25. They need to define what it means for each of the countries of the Balkans to become European and press elected officials to deliver.
  26. Germany, Portugal, and Spain did that even in the midst of the greatest geopolitical confrontation the world has known. They chose the West, despite enormous obstacles. Berlin is now a stalwart liberal democracy and model of economic prosperity and social cohesion.
  27. It is my fervent hope that you in the Balkans will find your own way to that kind of political, economic, and social outcome.

. Along the way, I addressed four additional issues, more or less along the following lines:

  1. Montenegro’s recent government turmoil may concern many, but what happened in the past year or so was in line with the country’s constitutional system: an opposition government came to power after popular demonstrations, the coalition failed to hold together, so it fell. That’s what happens in parliamentary systems.
  2. Liberal democracy is a pluralistic system of governance based on individual rights. Social democracy is a political program or platform, one that fits well within a liberal democratic system.
  3. The politics of memory and commemoration are difficult and prolonged. In the US, we are just now getting rid of schools and highways in the South named for traitors who rebelled against the United States more than 150 years ago. I don’t want to discourage the effort in the Balkans, only to note that it can take a long time.
  4. In the real estate business, the key factors are “location, location, location.” In Balkan governance today, the key factors are “corruption, corruption, corruption.” The Americans and Europeans are sending clear signals that the rule of law is a central concern for those who want to make progress towards NATO and/or the EU. Arrests and prosecutions are a sign the prosecutors are doing the right thing, not a sign that the situation is hopeless (as many in the Balkans assume).
Tags : , , , , , ,

Dialogue will work when people support it

Posted in Daniel Serwer - February 2, 2022 - 0 Comment

Koha today published an interview I gave yesterday to Besjana Bajrami:

Q: Do you think that this year will bring the final recognition between Kosovo and Serbia?

A: No, I don’t. I don’t see any sign the leadership in either country is preparing for a final recognition agreement.

Why is it stuck?

Q: Where do you think the dialogue is stuck?

A: It’s stuck in the domestic politics of both countries. Neither President Vucic nor Prime Minister Kurti sees the benefit of agreements, especially a comprehensive one.

Mutual benefit is the way forward

Q: Emissaries from the US and the EU are staying in Kosovo for dialogue. The same after the meetings with Prime Minister Kurti and President Osmani have stated that a solution must be found for dialogue. Where do you think the solution should be sought in Kosovo or Serbia?

A: I think the way forward now is what worked in the past: focus on issues with real benefits to citizens in both countries. That worked before 2013. I also think there is a big need for monitoring of implementation of past agreements. The EU and US should do that together.

Q: Do you think that Kosovo is being pressured regarding the dialogue?

A: Of course. Serbia will also be pressured. But I don’t think pressure is the key. Mutual benefit is the key.

Missing persons should not be stalled

Q: The topic of missing persons has somehow stalled in dialogue. Should Kosovo continue the dialogue if the issue of missing persons is not resolved?

A: I do not understand why the issue of missing persons has not been resolved. It is standard procedure to resolve such issues after war. It is best done promptly. Twenty years is not prompt.

The Association depends on context

Q: Should the Association of Serb Municipalities in Kosovo be allowed? The answer to this question depends on context. If Serbia were prepared to recognize Kosovo and advocate its UN membership, an association consistent with the Kosovo constitution would not, I think, look as troubling as it does today.

Tags : , ,

Good on recognition but oversold on strategic impact

Posted in Daniel Serwer - January 19, 2022 - 1 Comment

My colleague at SAIS and its Foreign Policy Institute, Ed Joseph, has organized an unusual group to strategize about how to deal with growing instability in the Balkans. Regional stagnation due to EU hesistancy as well as Russian and Chinese meddling threatens more than two decades of progress. The group includes scholars with origins in both Serbia and Kosovo as well as EU non-recognizing states Romania, Slovakia, and Spain.

I was not involved in preparation of their report and did not know about it until published. I’ll offer an arms-length critique of some of its more salient points.

Convergence on recognition is right

The report is right to put the emphasis on convincing non-recognizers to recognize Kosovo, with due respect to the difficulties of the process. This is the centerpiece of what they call a “convergence” strategy. They are also correct to point toward Greece as the most likely of the non-recognziers to do the right thing. So it is regrettable that the report does not include a Greek author. That said, surely the encouraging approach they suggest is preferable to a punitive one.

Irredentism is a real threat…

One of the reasons for urgency about recognition is the growing threat of irredentism. Belgrade is dreaming of a “Serbian home” that includes Serb-populated parts of Kosovo, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. That idea is indistguishable from Greater Serbia. That was Slobodan Milosevic’s goal in going to war in Croatia and Bosnia. (Kosovo and Montenegro were already under Serbian rule at the time.) Some in Tirana and Pristina, including the current prime ministers, like the idea of Greater Albania, which is ruled out in the Kosovo constitution.

These ethnically-motivated territorial ambitions are, as the report suggests, a prime cause of Balkan instability. But the authors make the mistake of suggesting the US legally sanction their paladins. That proposal is attracting a lot of press attention in the region, but it isn’t going to happen. Washington does not levy legal sanctions for opinions but rather for actions. US officials may limit access and even visas for foreign officials who say things Washington regards as destabilizing. But the miscreants will have to introduce legislation, organize and arm paramilitaries, or take some other tangible action to incur frozen assets or other legal sanctions.

The bigger error

That is not however the report’s biggest error. It argues that recognition and eventual NATO membership for Kosovo will change Belgrade’s “strategic calculus,” incentivize Serbia to accept the Western order for the Balkans, and deter Russia.

I doubt these propositions. Belgrade claims it is “neutral” but in fact is re-arming beyond any need to confront real military threats. Serbia is also moving towards domestic autocracy. Its politics have shifted definitively toward virulent ethnic nationalism. Its democratic opoposition is moribund. Its media are not free. Even the constitutional amendments approved last weekend are but a first step towards an independent judiciary, if implemented in good faith.

Recognition of Kosovo and its progress toward NATO will likely prevent any Serbian military intervention. But it will also incentivize Serbia further in the wrong directions. Ethnic nationalist politicians will benefit. Moscow will be ready and willing to arm Belgrade against NATO. Russia can even be relied upon to block Kosovo UN membership if Serbia were to somehow agree to it. President Putin will have a price in mind–in Georgia, Moldova, or Ukraine–before surrendering his trump card.

Whole and free is a dead letter for now

Let me be clear: I like the idea of working hard for recognition by the EU non-recognizers, especially the four who are members of NATO. The Alliance needs to prepare for Kosovo accession no later than completion of its army, scheduled for 2027. But the notion that recognition or NATO membership will somehow undo Serbia’s domestic and international drift in the wrong directions is fanciful. Europe “whole and free” is a dead letter for now. So too is the Balkans “whole and free.” The region will divide because that’s the way Moscow and Belgrade want it. The only question is where the lines will be drawn.

So what do I think of the report? Good on its central thesis concerning recognition, but oversold on the strategic impact. There is no magic wand. The West needs to gird for a long struggle in the Balkans.

Tags : , , ,

This is the Bosnia we should support

Posted in Daniel Serwer - January 10, 2022 - 0 Comment

I have added my name to this appeal, published today:

We are writing to you on behalf of the friends of Bosnia and Herzegovina who have gathered on 10 January 2022 in Brussels, London, Ottawa, Toronto, Geneva, Oslo, Rome, Stockholm, Gothenburg, Vienna, Sarajevo and many other cities all around the world to express our utmost concern about the current political and security crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

In October 2021 the ruling coalition in the Bosnian and Herzegovinian entity of Republika Srpska (RS) adopted a plan to create what it called “an independent RS within the Dayton Bosnia and Herzegovina.” A seven-page long document laid out concrete steps for unilateral, illegal and unconstitutional takeover of state-level competences in fiscal, judicial, defence, security and many other areas. This plan is available in public and among other points, foresees use of force against any state-level institution that would try to defend the constitutional order of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The implementation of the plan will cause collapse of the constitutional and institutional architecture of Bosnia and Herzegovina. It will result in terrible political, economic and security consequences. With several concrete steps already taken, the ruling coalition in the RS has made it clear that it intends to implement its plan.

On 10 December 2021 the RS Assembly adopted four conclusions on the so-called “transfer of authorities” and one so-called “declaration on constitutional principles” by which the RS legislative body has de facto and de jure decided to remove this entity from the state constitutional and legal system of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the sectors of judiciary, defense and security and indirect taxation. Moreover, the RS assembly has tasked and empowered the RS government to draft new entity laws on: the RS army, RS intelligence service, RS indirect taxation system and RS high judicial and prosecutor council as well as more than 130 other laws and necessary regulations in various sectors by which RS will abolish and replace the respected state laws and regulation with entity ones.

As neither the state or RS entity constitution, nor state or entity laws allow any possibility for the entity institutions to issue legally valid decisions or laws on matters which are already imposed and regulated by state constitution or laws, the above-mentioned actions and decisions of RS assembly from 10 December 2021 are an illegal usurpation of state power and a criminal act against state constitutional and legal order.  

By October 2021 the RS adopted and published in Official Gazette the unconstitutional entity law, which abolished the validation of the state-level law prohibiting genocide denial in the scope of RS. On 28 December 2021, another unconstitutional law was published in the Official Gazette. This Law on the RS Agency for medicinal products and devices could, as the European Commission noted in its recent letter to the RS authorities, lead to a collapse of the medicinal market and deprive citizens of basic medicine.     

This crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina has nothing to do with inter-ethnic relations; it is an artificial crisis provoked by corrupt nationalists and their partners. They do not have the support of the opposition in the RS Assembly, nor of the majority of the citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina, including those living in the RS.

The country has now been drawn into a political crisis that threatens peace and a meaningful, robust and coordinated response by the High Representative of the International Community, Christian Schmidt himself, United Nations, United States, the European Union and its NATO allies is required.

A lack of such response so far has only served to embolden Mr. Dodik’s and his ruling coalition’s ambitions. Particularly worrying are statements by government officials in Serbia, who have expressed their support for the plan of ruling coalition in RS. Alongside this, the RS secessionists enjoy the bolstering support of Russia, China and even some EU member states such as Hungary whose open nationalism, xenophobia and anti-Muslim sentiment is very much rampant.

Instead of pushing back, some in international community are only encouraging Mr. Dodik’s aspirations for secession and desire to undermine and eventually destroy Bosnia and Herzegovina as a sovereign state. However, there are very serious reasons why Bosnia and Herzegovina needs not only to be preserved as a sovereign state but also further strengthened.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is a specific cultural entity that has existed for more than 1000 years, where citizens of different ethnic origins and religious traditions have lived together for centuries.

Even today, despite the war in the 1990s, a large number of citizens accept the existence and legitimacy of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The 2019 European Values Study showed that 74 per cent of the population is proud of having Bosnian and Herzegovinian citizenship. This sentiment is the strongest in the Brcko District (88 per cent), while in RS 66 percent share this view.

Neither the peace agreement nor the constitution provide for the right of secession. It would be a disastrous historic precedent if the ‘entity’ whose political and military leaders (as well as its army and police) have been convicted for severe war crimes and genocide, with over one million people expelled, were ‘granted’ independence.

In the past 26 years, the EU and its Member States, the USA and other countries of the world, and many international organizations have invested a lot of political, diplomatic, human and financial resources in effort in maintaining peace and rebuilding the country. Bosnia and Herzegovina’s citizens, Croats, Bosniaks, Serbs, Jews, Romas, and all those Bosnians who do not identify themselves with a specific ethnic group, want to live in peace and harmony, nurtured by democracy.

On 10 January 2022, Bosnians and Herzegovinians of all ethnicities and religions, atheists and agnostics, together with their friends from all around the world will gather in Brussels, Geneva, London, Vienna, Oslo, Ottawa, Toronto, Rome, Stockholm, Sarajevo and many other cities across the world to stand for united Bosnia and Herzegovina, for its pluralism, coexistence and preservation and to issue following demands to the High Representative of the International Community, Christian Schmidt, as well as to the European Commission and the governments of the United States, United Kingdom, European Union Member States and NATO allies:

  1. The plan adopted and currently implemented by the ruling coalition in the Bosnian and Herzegovinian entity of Republika Srpska should be recognised as an attack on the long-lasting peace, constitutional order, sovereignty, territorial integrity and 30-year independence of Bosnia and Herzegovina and as a threat to peace, stability and security in the Western Balkans and Europe.
  2. A meaningful, robust and coordinated response should be developed and implemented as a matter of priority with a primary focus on deterring the local forces of destabilization and foreign mentors, and then focusing on constructive and reformative approaches. This response should include a mix of interventions, starting with sanctions and strengthening of the NATO/EUFOR military presence as a clear political signal.
  3. Support domestic institutions in their response to the attack on the constitutional order of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Foremost, by providing full support to the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina to review the two laws already passed, and all other that might be passed by the RS Assembly. Furthermore, by providing political and technical support for the state-level judiciary to investigate the attack on the constitutional order of Bosnia and Herzegovina.  
  4. Recent statements and activities by high-ranking officials of the government of Republic of Serbia are violating the principle of good neighbourly relations, which are at the heart of the EU accession talks and a violation of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement between the EU and Serbia. EU Member States should consider suspension of accession talks with Serbia unless its government changes its position towards Bosnia and Herzegovina, including that related to the 1990’s war crimes and genocide.
Tags : , , , ,

Sanctions for destabilizing and corrupt activity

Posted in Daniel Serwer - January 5, 2022 - 0 Comment

The US Treasury’s announcement today of sanctions on Milorad Dodik and Alternativna TV merits reprinting in full. I don’t expect this will have any immediate effect on Dodik or his TV station, both of which presumably anticipated it. Dodik probaby does most of his personal business in cash anyway. The TV station may have some trouble with international transfers. But more importantly this decision will have a PR and psychological effect. It is a clear and unequivocal signal that the United States wants Dodik gone and a warning to those politicians who support his destabilizing activities. The impact will be greater if European Union member states join in:

WASHINGTON — Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designated Milorad Dodik (Dodik), who is a member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), as well as one entity under his control, Alternativna Televizija d.o.o. Banja Luka, in response to Dodik’s corrupt activities and continued threats to the stability and territorial integrity of BiH.

Today’s action, the first designations under E.O. 14033, builds on the Biden Administration’s commitment to promote accountability for those who, among other things, undermine the stability of the Western Balkans region through corruption and threats to long-standing peace agreements. Dodik has undermined BiH institutions by calling for the seizure of state competencies and setting in motion the creation of parallel institutions in BiH’s Republika Srpska (RS) entity. Furthermore, Dodik has used his official BiH position to accumulate personal wealth through graft, bribery, and other forms of corruption. His divisive ethno-nationalistic rhetoric reflects his efforts to advance these political goals and distract attention from his corrupt activities. Cumulatively, these actions threaten the stability, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of BiH and undermine the Dayton Peace Accords, thereby risking wider regional instability.

“Milorad Dodik’s destabilizing corrupt activities and attempts to dismantle the Dayton Peace Accords, motivated by his own self-interest, threaten the stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the entire region,” said Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian E. Nelson. “The United States will not hesitate to act against those who pursue corruption, destabilization, and division at the expense of their own people, as well as against those who enable and facilitate this behavior.”

DODIK’S DESTABILIZING AND CORRUPT ACTIVITIES

The Dayton Peace Accords (DPA), signed by the Presidents of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, and Serbia in 1995, brought an end to ethnic conflict in BiH and established the present-day constitution of BiH. Treasury previously designated Dodik on January 17, 2017, pursuant to E.O. 13304, for having actively obstructed or posed a significant risk of actively obstructing the DPA. Today’s actions build on this legacy by targeting his ongoing destabilizing activity with respect to the DPA, as well as his abuse of his official position to engage in widespread corruption, which undermines state institutions in BiH.

Dodik has also openly called for, and has taken action toward, the unilateral transfer of state competencies from the BiH government to the Republika Srpska (RS), one of two entities that comprise BiH along with the Brcko District. Dodik has also publicly opposed the internationally appointed High Representative for BiH and the composition of the BiH Constitutional Court. Additionally, Dodik has publicly denigrated other ethnic and religious groups within BiH, further sowing division and political gridlock. Dodik, therefore, is being designated pursuant to E.O. 14033 for being responsible for or complicit in, or having directly or indirectly engaged in, a violation of, or an act that has obstructed or threatened the implementation of, the DPA.

Dodik is also being designated pursuant to E.O. 14033 for being responsible for or complicit in, or having directly or indirectly engaged in, corruption related to the Western Balkans. Specifically, he has established a patronage network in BiH from which he and his associates benefit. As one example of his corrupt actions, Dodik has provided government contracts and monopolies in the RS directly to close business associates. With his corrupt proceeds, Dodik has engaged in bribery and additional corrupt activities to further his personal interests at the expense of citizens in the RS.

DODIK’S PERSONAL MEDIA STATION

Alternativna Televizija d.o.o. Banja Luka (ATV), a media outlet based in Banja Luka, RS, is privately owned by a company closely linked to Dodik’s family. However, Dodik himself exerts personal control over ATV behind the scenes, such as by requiring personal approval on media stories related to politically sensitive topics. Dodik acquired ATV to deliberately and expressly further his own agenda, which includes his efforts to denigrate other political figures, burnish his public image, and advance his own personal and political goals.

Dodik has awarded ATV-related contracts directly to members of his family, which he has used as yet another avenue for corruption. He has funneled money directly from public companies to ATV for corrupt purposes. Dodik has substantially increased funding for ATV in recent years and engaged in malign social media influence campaigns through ATV to publish content that advances his political and personal goals.

ATV is being designated pursuant to E.O. 14033 for being owned or controlled by, or having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, Dodik.

SANCTIONS IMPLICATIONS

As a result of today’s action, all property and interests in property of the individual and entity above that are in the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons are blocked and must be reported to OFAC. In addition, any entities that are owned, directly or indirectly, 50 percent or more by one or more blocked persons are also blocked. Unless authorized by a general or specific license issued by OFAC, or exempt, all transactions by U.S. persons or within (or transiting) the United States that involve any property or interests in property of designated or otherwise blocked persons are generally prohibited. The prohibitions include the making of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services by, to, or for the benefit of any blocked person, or the receipt of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services from any such person.

For identifying information on the individual and entity designated today.

Tags : , , ,

Those who ask for more than individual rights deprive others

Posted in Daniel Serwer - January 5, 2022 - 0 Comment

Here are some reasonable questions a reader posed yesterday:

One question I have for you though? In your opinion, what can and should be expected from the citizens to take to prevent a possible escalation of the situation?

And one more question? Sometime in 2006, a constitutional program for Bosnia and Herzegovina was proposed. It is the so-called “April package” of 2006 proposed by the Americans and the EU. [It] was reportedly not accepted because one or two votes were missing. No one knows reasons why. Some politicians today still talk about the rehabilitation of the April package. I’m interested in your opinion on that? I was very young then, and do not have a notion of what “April-package” is?

Citizens are the key

Citizens are the key to preventing escalation. Only if popular opinion in Republika Srpska turns against Dodik will he moderate. Ultimately how citizens vote in the next election will determine his fate and the fate of the much-needed constitutional reforms. The Americans and Europeans can help. They can hold Dodik accountable with sanctions and ensure transparency about his finances and his relationship with Moscow.

What reforms, should citizens support? My own preference is a Bosnia and Herzegovina that reduces its elaborate system of protection of (ethnic) group rights towards better protection of individual rights. Several European court decisions have pointed in this direction, which EU membership will require. Best to get it done sooner rather than later.

The current, ongoing negotiations about the country’s electoral law are not going to produce that kind of reform. To the contrary, the current ethnic group leaders will use these negotiations to consolidate their own hold on power and eliminate competition that could come from politicians whose appeal crosses ethnic divisions. EU and US leadership of the negotiations, which have marginalized the citizens, risks making the situation worse.

The April package failed because of narrow-minded politics

The April package was a complicated array of constitutional reforms negotiated in 2005/6 by all the main Bosnian political parties (caveat emptor: that was done with support from the US Institute of Peace under my supervision). Notably, it included an “EU clause” that ensured to the Sarajevo government the authority required to negotiate and implement the requirements of EU membership.

The package failed to gain a two-thirds majority in parliament by two votes, both of which belonged to members who broke party discipline to vote against. But that was not the real issue. A major political party that had been involved in every aspect of negotiating the April package voted against it. Its leader wanted to win a seat on the collective presidency and railed against the April package in ethnically explicit terms. He won his seat and the opportunity for serious constitutional reform evaporated.

What now?

The future direction is up to Bosnia’s citizens. If EU membership is the goal, the right approach is constitutional reform that protects individual rights. Even if some member states diverge from it, liberal democracy is a prerequisite for EU accession. Strengthening individual rights would ensure people of all ethnic groups an equal say in how power is exercised and limited . No individual should ask for more. Those who do, often in the name of group rights, are depriving others of their most fundamental liberties.

Tags : , ,
Tweet