Tag: Balkans
Stevenson’s army, October 29
DNI went beyond agreed language in saying Iranian election interference was to damage Trump.
Do the president and Justice Kavanaugh realize that their election day ballot deadline could prevent military ballots from being counted?
Insider Trump critic, “Anonymous,” has outed himself.
WSJ says US states face depression-level revenue crisis.
WaPo say administration has regularly attacked the civil service.
SAIS Prof Ed Joseph says Trump “lost the Balkans”
Breaking Defense says Congress has evaded earmark ban with Buy American provisions.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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If you can lie like this, why tell the truth?
Even in Trump’s world of lies, this is a whopper. The irrelevant agreement signed on separate pieces of paper at the White House in September has done nothing to prevent or cure violence between Serbs and Albanians, because there has been very little for the past 15 years. Any professor of social science can nominate someone for a Nobel Peace Prize (and yes, I have, the Syrian White Helmets), along with lots of other people. President Trump has no serious claim to one and will never get one. His nomination for the Serbia/Kosovo agreement came from an extreme right-wing Norwegian parliamentarian. I can’t imagine who might have suggested he do it.
But this whopper tells us something about Trump and his supporters. Neither knows anything or cares to know anything. Ignorance allows creation of a self-image unlinked to reality. Trump and his supporters are living in their own utopia, where immigrants are a mortal threat, discrimination against minorities is not a problem, left-wing socialists are threatening God and country, the Mexicans paid for the wall and the Chinese pay the tariffs, and the President has done everything possible to bring Covid-19 under control. No wonder he can also sell them the idea he merits a Nobel Prize.
Something like 40% of Americans are suckers for this crap. Trump has been entertaining them since his recovery from the virus at mostly unmasked and crowded rallies in states he should be reasonably sure of winning. This is not a viable strategy for winning the election, but it is a viable strategy for assembling a critical mass to protest its outcome if he loses. He famously told the Proud Boys to “stand by.” He is laying the foundation for calling them and their like to arms on November 4 if it looks as if he may have won on election night. He will then try to stop the counting of absentee/mail-in ballots, which are thought to come mainly from Democrats. The Supreme Court, with a 6 to 3 Republican majority, will assist in this effort.
Even if Trump accepts election defeat, there are lots of ways he can use the “lame duck” period until January 20 to feather his own nest and make problems for Biden (and the country), capably outlined by Politico. America is in for a rough ride: violence by right-wing armed gangs, abuse of power, Covid-19 rampaging, the economy and stock market in free fall until President Biden can steady the ship of state and begin the process of restoring sanity and confidence.
Stay tuned. This isn’t over yet. The 40% who believe the lies will want their final moments in power.
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Biden and the Kosovo Serbs
Colleague Michael Haltzel, Senior Fellow at the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute, writes at Medium:
In westernmost Kosovo stands the 14th century Serbian Orthodox Visoki Decani Monastery, whose fresco-adorned main cathedral is the largest medieval church in the Balkans. The magnificent monastery is listed on UNESCO’s World Heritage List, but it would likely be in ruins today had it not been for the behind-the-scenes intervention of Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate for President.
On one of his many trips to Southeastern Europe, then-Senator Biden and I visited Visoki Decani in the winter of 2001. It was a tiny, isolated Serb enclave in ethnic Albanian territory. Armored personnel carriers of Italy’s KFOR contingent were parked up against the low stone wall ringing the monastery.
The well-known ‘’cyber priest’’ Father Sava Janjic described how in 1998–99 the monks had sheltered Serbs and Albanians alike during the vicious ethnic cleansing of Slobodan Milosevic’s troops and the warfare between Serbia and the Kosovo Liberation Army. The monastery, he said, continued to receive threats — this time from ethnic Albanian extremists — but until then had not been attacked.
A few days later we had meetings with all the leading Kosovar Albanian political figures, including Ramush Haradinaj, the former guerilla commander in the Decani region. Haradinaj impressed us with his understanding that a modicum of ethnic reconciliation was a precondition for Kosovo to attain independence. (Haradinaj, who subsequently was twice acquitted by the war crimes tribunal in The Hague, served as independent Kosovo’s prime minister from 2017 until February 2020.)
When Biden returned to Washington, he pondered what could be done to help protect Visoki Decani, the only Serbian Orthodox monastery in Kosovo over whose security we might have some influence. He decided to send a private letter to Haradinaj, in which he wrote: ‘’I know that you have particularly great influence in the Decani region, and I would regard it as a personal favor if you would do all you can to guarantee the safety of the Visoki Decani Monastery and its monks.’’
A few weeks later we received word from Haradinaj that he would, indeed, see that the monastery and its monks were protected.
On March 17, 2004, violent pogroms against Serbs across Kosovo resulted in several deaths and dozens of Serbian Orthodox churches and monasteries burned to the ground, despite the presence of KFOR international peacekeeping troops. A singular exception was Visoki Decani, which was spared by the mobs.
In August 2004, I returned to Kosovo for meetings with Albanian and Serb politicians. When Haradinaj entered the room, his first words to me were: ‘’Tell Senator Biden that I kept my promise.’’
Kosovo gained its independence in 2008. A diplomatic dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, brokered by the European Union and the U.S., has yet to yield major accomplishments. Inter-communal violence in Kosovo has lessened, but tensions remain, including around Visoki Decani. Biden, who as Vice President made two visits to Kosovo, has made clear to the government that it must uphold its commitment to protect the lives of Kosovo Serbs and their remaining churches and monasteries.
No other American political figure has Joe Biden’s credibility on Balkan affairs. As President, working with our EU allies, he would be in a unique position to reinvigorate the dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo and to strengthen efforts to bridge the remaining divide between Kosovo’s Serb and Albanian communities. In doing so Biden would be serving America’s vital interest in a peaceful Balkan region, where we twice went to war in the 1990’s.
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Serbia should not be at stake in US elections
Saša Janković, expert on human rights and security governance, former Serbian National Ombudsman, and runner up at the Serbian presidential election of 2017, writes in Belgrade daily Danas:
From circles close to the Democrats in the United States, two short program documents of their candidate for US President Joseph Biden were recently published – one on the vision of American-Albanian relations, essentially addressed to Albanians from Kosovo and Albania, and the other on the future of American-BiH relations. In both documents, Biden emphasizes on the one hand his help and vision for Kosovo, Albania and BiH and, on the other hand, his efforts to suppress the harmful influence of Serbia and certain Serbian politicians. After the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, joined Donald Trump’s pre-election campaign, Biden hereby took the position “Serbia has chosen its side, I am also choosing it.”
Improving relations between Serbia and the United States is the utmost Serbian national interest. However, by the so-called economic agreement with Pristina under Trump’s patronage, in the middle of his presidential campaign, Aleksandar Vucic approached Trump, not America; he made a hazardous move, entered the gamble of extremely uncertain American presidential elections, and put Serbia as a stake.
It is clear why Vučić decided to gamble – he is slowly but surely losing his footing in the European Union, especially Germany, and without the previous open support from abroad, his government is on glass legs. But Serbia, which still avails of the remnants of once balanced and stable Yugoslav diplomacy, did not need such gambling.
In the previous presidential elections in the USA, Vučić supported the candidate who lost. That, a much less visible mistake, he paid with a three-and-a-half-year cold attitude of the winner. Now, at the very end of Trump’s (first) mandate, Vučić is paying for a ticket to fly to his bench by disrupting Serbia’s diplomatic relations with Russia, the EU, the Arab world and Palestine. In the event of Biden’s victory, Serbia will pay even more for Vučić’s new dice.
It would have been better for everyone if Biden had ignored Vučić’s classification with Trump. Especially since Aleksandar Vučić does not really control the will of the Serbian diaspora – in the last presidential elections he won only 10% of its votes in the USA, and the second-runner, who is in opposition to him, won 60%. If Biden found the strength to stand up and extend his hand towards Serbia, that would be a real sign of a winning mentality. That sign would be noticed and rewarded by Serbs in America. They are small electorate, but it seems that every vote will be precious.
On this side of the ocean, the government in Serbia should pursue state, not private and party interests. And the opposition should not rejoice to the chance that anyone from abroad, including Biden, will punish Vučić. As in 1998, Serbia and its citizens would pay the largest fine in such a scenario.
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Peace Picks | October 26 – October 30, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Elevating Humanitarian Action in Sudan’s Democratic Transition | October 27, 2020 | 10:30 – 11:30 AM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
On October 19, the White House announced it was taking steps to delist Sudan as a state sponsor of terrorism (SST), clearing the way for increased international assistance and opportunities for development financing. Removing Sudan from the SST list is long overdue and comes at a pivotal moment for its nascent political transition. Prior to the Covid-19 crisis, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimated that 9.3 million people in Sudan would need humanitarian assistance in 2020. Now, months of heavy flooding have led to increased displacement, while high levels of inflation are making it increasingly difficult for people to purchase food and limiting the services humanitarian organizations can provide.
Sudan’s ongoing democratic transition has enabled increased humanitarian access for multilateral aid organizations, yet restrictions on NGOs remain, and prospects for enhanced access are uncertain. As peace negotiations and the democratic transition continue, political leaders in Sudan must ensure that meeting humanitarian needs remains at the forefront of their agenda.
In a follow-up to our recent commentary, this webinar will highlight the enduring humanitarian needs in Sudan and examine how Sudanese political actors can prioritize humanitarian needs during the state’s democratic transition. To help understand these issues, we will be joined by Dr. Suliman Baldo, Senior Advisor at The Sentry, and Hala Al-Karib, Regional Director at the Strategic Initiative for Women in the Horn of Africa.
Speakers:
Dr. Suliman Baldo: Senior Adviser, The Sentry
Hala Al-Karib: Regional Director, Strategic Initiative for Women in the Horn of Africa
2. Local Elections, National Implications: Ukraine at the Ballot Box | October 27, 2020 | 12:00 PM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Ukraine’s local elections on October 25 are highly contested and impossible to predict. Following President Zelenskyy’s landslide victory last year, he and his party have fallen in the polls, with approval ratings hovering below 35 percent. With deadlocked peace talks, a continued war in the Donbas, stalled reforms, and increased coronavirus cases devastating the economy, a 2019-style victory for Servant of the People is increasingly unlikely. The new electoral code, which bars independents from running in districts with more than 10,000 citizens, further complicates the picture.
Mykhaylo Shtekel, Odesa correspondent and Donbas reporter for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) Ukrainian Service, Nataliya Sedletska, editor-in-chief and host of RFE/RL’s “Schemes: Corruption in Detail”, Adrian Karatnycky, Eurasia Center senior fellow and managing partner at Myrmidon Group LLC, and Brian Mefford, Eurasia Center senior fellow and managing director at Wooden Horse Strategies LLC, will analyze the results and what they mean for Ukraine’s future. Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, moderates.
Speakers:
Mykhaylo Shtekel: Odesa correspondent and Donbas reporter for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) Ukrainian Service
Nataliya Sedletska: editor-in-chief and host of RFE/RL’s “Schemes: Corruption in Detail”
Adrian Karatnycky: Eurasia Center senior fellow; managing partner at Myrmidon Group LLC
Brian Mefford: Eurasia Center senior fellow; managing director at Wooden Horse Strategies LLC
Melinda Haring: Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
3. Election 2020: Driving Forces and Possible Outcomes | October 27, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:30 PM EDT | Brookings Institute | Register Here
As voters begin casting their ballots in the 2020 election, many issues still have the potential to transform the political landscape and determine the outcome of the presidential election, as well as congressional, gubernatorial, and statehouse races across the country. Voters go to the polls with several serious policy issues on their mind including an economy in recession, the COVID-19 pandemic, health care, race relations, social justice, women’s rights, and the future of the judiciary. These issues raise a number of questions that will determine the outcome of the election.
During a campaign season colored by the pandemic, will congressional leadership and the White House strike a deal for another round of economic stimulus before Election Day? And how will delays in a relief package affect House members and senators in tough reelection fights?
With a Supreme Court nomination in process that has the potential to shape the country for years, will Republican voters show up at the polls on election day to reward GOP Senate candidates like Lindsay Graham, Cory Gardner, and Joni Ernst for voting to confirm Amy Coney Barrett? Will Democratic backlash hurt those senators’ chances for reelection?
Long lines, postal delays, concerns about voter intimidation and suppression, and the possibility of contested elections have raised concerns about the integrity of the U.S. elections process. How will political leaders and courts respond when the influx of mail-in ballots might extend election day to several weeks? And will efforts to disrupt voting strike a chord with voters in affecting their drive to vote and their vote choice?
On October 27, one week before election day, Governance Studies at Brookings will host a webinar to discuss the driving forces and possible outcomes of the 2020 election. Expert panelists will offer their analysis on these and other pressing issues and answer questions from viewers.
Speakers:
John Hudak, moderator: Deputy Director – Center for Effective Public ManagementSenior Fellow – Governance Studies
William A. Galston: Ezra K. Zilkha Chair and Senior Fellow – Governance Studies
Sarah A. Binder: Senior Fellow – Governance Studies
Elaine Kamarck: Founding Director – Center for Effective Public ManagementSenior Fellow – Governance Studies
Rashawn Ray: David M. Rubenstein Fellow – Governance Studies
Vanessa Williamson: Senior Fellow – Governance StudiesSenior Fellow – Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center
4. Kyrgyzstan’s Unfinished “Revolution”: How the Upheaval from 2020 Is Different | October 28, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
For the third time in 15 years, protesters in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek have seized and set fire to the “White House,” the seat of parliament and presidential staff. The chaotic situation has toppled President Jeenbekov and is still rapidly evolving, with political actors jockeying for power. It’s a scene all too familiar to Kyrgyzstan, which since 2005 has experienced several cycles of protests and calls for advancing democracy followed by backsliding into authoritarianism. But this time around, even with all the familiar players and moves, there are also strong differences that are worth thorough assessment.
Join USIP for a discussion of the ongoing situation in Kyrgyzstan and its implications for peace and stability in Central Asia. The conversation will examine how organized crime, youth mobilization, social media, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic have factored into the crisis. The discussion will also analyze how the United States and the region, including Kyrgyzstan’s Central Asian neighbors and Russia, are assessing and responding to the developments.
Speakers:
Scott Worden, welcoming remarks: Director, Afghanistan and Central Asia Programs, U.S Institute of Peace
Dr. Mariya Omelicheva: Professor of Strategy, National War College
Jonathan Henick: Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau for South & Central Asian Affairs, U.S. Department of State
Dr. Andrew Kuchins: President, American University of Central Asia
Dr. Ivan Safranchuk: Leading Research Fellow, Institute for International Studies, MGIMO
Keneshbek Sainazarov: Central Asia Program Director, Search for Common Ground
Dr. Gavin Helf, moderator: Senior Expert, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
5. Women, Democracy, and Peace: A Conversation with First Lady of Afghanistan Rula Ghani and Former First Lady of the United States Laura Bush | October 28, 2020 | 8:00 AM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Afghanistan is entering a new phase, with ongoing talks offering an opportunity for peace and stability after years of conflict. As the government and the Taliban negotiate peace, questions remain regarding the future of gender equality and minority rights in the country. What will it take to ensure long-term security without compromising on the rights of women and minorities in Afghanistan? How do the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic impact the ability to sustain democratic institutions in the country?
Building upon their longstanding partnership to promote women’s rights in Afghanistan, the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center and the George W. Bush Institute invite you to join us on October 28 at 8:00 A.M. (EDT) / 4:30 P.M. (Kabul) for a virtual conversation with First Lady of Afghanistan Rula Ghani and former First Lady of the United States Laura Bush on these issues and to lend their insight into what will need to be done to ensure an equitable and inclusive peace.
Speakers:
H.E. Rula Ghani: First Lady of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Mrs. Laura Bush: Former First Lady of the United States
6. Negotiating Peace: Lessons from the Western Balkans | October 28, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 12:30 PM EDT | Wilson Center | Register Here
25 years ago, the Dayton Peace Accords ended conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, violence continued in the Western Balkans, which led to the Kosovo War and the international mediation needed to end it. Even after the conflict stopped, Serbia and Kosovo struggle with their relations. Today, the Western Balkans remains turbulent. Join us as two experienced European negotiators discuss what lessons can be drawn from efforts to negotiate peace in the Balkans, both for the region and elsewhere.
Speakers:
The Right Honourable Catherine Ashton, Baroness of Upholland: Bank of America Chair, Global Europe Program; Former Vice President of the European Commission and former High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy
Carl Bildt: Former Prime Minister of Sweden; Former UN Special Envoy for the Balkans; Co-Chair, Dayton Peace Conference
Jane Harman: Director, President, and CEO, Wilson Center
7. The Implications of Brexit for Ireland: A Conversation with Irish Ambassador Daniel Mulhall | October 29, 2020 | 1:30 – 2:30 PM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
Please join us for a conversation with H.E. Daniel Mulhall, Ambassador of Ireland to the United States, about the implications of Brexit for Ireland. This discussion will be moderated by Bill Reinsch, CSIS Scholl Chair and Senior Adviser, and Heather Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic and Director of the Europe Program at CSIS.
With the deadline for reaching a trade agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom fast approaching, there is growing concern that new borders, customs procedures and tariffs may be imposed which will harm both the Irish and Northern Ireland economies. The UK government has moved forward with legislation, the Internal Market Bill, which allows the UK government to breach its legal agreement with the EU on Northern Ireland. The EU has recently initiated legal procedures against the UK for this legislation and prominent members of Congress have stated that the Internal Market Bill or anything else that jeopardizes the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, makes a future US-UK trade agreement impossible. U.S. Special Envoy to Northern Ireland, Mick Mulvaney, recently visited Dublin and Belfast to assess the impact of the Internal Market Bill. Irish Ambassador to the U.S., Ambassador Daniel Mulhall will present the Irish government’s perspective on the situation, on prospects for an acceptable resolution, and the economic and political implications if one does not appear.
Speakers:
H.E. Daniel Mulhall: Ambassador of Ireland to the United States
Heather Conley: Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic and Director of the Europe Program at CSIS
Bill Reinsch: CSIS Scholl Chair and Senior Adviser
8. The Good, Bad, and Ugly: How the World Sees the United States | October 29, 2020 | 9:00 – 9:50 AM EDT | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
Critics make a strong case that the United States has never been less respected or admired abroad than it is today. President Trump’s disruptive policies abroad and his mishandling of the pandemic at home have fundamentally undermined U.S. credibility in the eyes of both allies and adversaries in the short run, but will the damage last? And if Joe Biden wins in November, what will the world expect from U.S. leadership?
Join us as three veteran foreign correspondents, Christiane Amanpour, Steven Erlanger, and David Rennie, sit down with Aaron David Miller to discuss the United States and its role in the world.
Speakers:
Aaron David Miller: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Christiane Amanpour: Chief International Anchor, CNN; Host, “Amanpour & Company”, PBS
Steven Erlanger: Chief Diplomatic Correspondent, Europe, The New York Times.
David Rennie: Beijing bureau chief, The Economist
9. Ten Years On: A Post-Arab Spring Middle East | October 29, 2020 | 2:00 -3:00 PM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The conditions that led to the 2011 Arab Spring protests continue to linger in the Middle East and North Africa. Widespread corruption, political repression, human rights abuses, and economic difficulties proliferate throughout the region, and have been complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Tunisia is often considered an Arab Spring success story, but despite a number of notable improvements since 2011, its fragile democratic transition has had little impact on the day-to-day lives of average Tunisians, and the economic realities that led to the 2011 uprising largely remain unchanged. In countries such as Syria, Yemen, and Libya, civil conflict and foreign intervention have worsened these crises without addressing the root causes of instability.
How have the Arab Spring protests changed the Middle East and affected regional stability over the past decade? What role does the United States play in the various crises throughout MENA and how does it affect American foreign policy goals?
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host its third event in a series to discuss the recently published briefing book, Election 2020: Challenges and Opportunities for US Policy in the Middle East. The briefs in this book offer policy insights from MEI scholars on key issues in the Middle East and serve as a contribution to the broader discussion about the challenges and opportunities for US policy in the region.
Speakers:
Nadwa Al-Dawsari: Non-resident Scholar, MEI
William Lawrence: Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, American University
Charles Lister: Senior fellow and director, Countering Terrorism and Extremism and Syria Programs, MEI
Mirette Mabrouk: Director and senior fellow, Egypt program, MEI
Ibrahim Al-Assil, moderator: Senior fellow, MEI
10. Strengthening Global Safeguards and Security in an Advanced Nuclear Age | October 29, 2020 | 1:00 PM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The Atlantic Council and Third Way are co-hosting a virtual event highlighting the potential global market for advanced nuclear technologies, and the important role safeguards and security must play in ensuring US reactors are ready to compete.
We are delighted to invite you to join our virtual event on the afternoon of Thursday, October 29th, 2020, from 1:00 – 2:30 p.m. EDT. Over the last five years there has been significant technological, financial, and policy progress toward developing and commercializing advanced nuclear reactors in the US. But we are not alone in this pursuit. China and Russia are both developing new reactor designs aggressively to capture the emerging market for advanced nuclear and the global influence that will come with it. It is in the best interest of the world for safety, proliferation, and climate reasons, that the US leads the way.
To maintain the United States’ global leadership, advanced nuclear reactors should not only provide affordable, zero-carbon power; they should provide it in a way that builds upon the nuclear security architecture developed over the last five decades. The US government and advanced nuclear developers could be in the position to enhance global nuclear security and safeguards as a new set of aspiring nuclear countries looks at deploying a new generation of nuclear reactors.
The event will feature keynote remarks by Dr. Brent Park, Deputy Administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the National Nuclear Security Administration. Immediately following his remarks, Third Way will present a first-of-a-kind international advanced nuclear map and global market analysis, and we will host a panel discussion on the critical role US clean energy innovation can play in reducing emissions in the US, addressing energy poverty around the world, and the challenges and opportunities presented by applying safeguards- and security-by-design to the next generation of nuclear energy technologies.
Speakers:
Keynote remarks
Dr. Brent Park: Deputy Administrator, Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation, National Nuclear Security Administration
Panel Discussion
Laura Holgate, Ambassador (ret.): Vice President, Materials Risk Management, Nuclear Threat Initiative
Allison Johnston: Director, Office of International Nuclear Security,National Nuclear Security Administration
Christine King: Director, Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear, Idaho National Laboratory
Kevin Veal: Director, Office of International Nuclear Safeguards, National Nuclear Security Administration
Jackie Kempfer, moderator: Senior Policy Adviser, Climate and Energy Program; Senior Fellow, Global Energy Center
Closing remarks
Dr. Jennifer Gordon: Managing Editor and Senior Fellow, Global Energy Center, Atlantic Council
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Still polarization, this time in support of Bosnia
I missed until now Biden and Harris statement on Bosnia and Herzegovina:
This may at first reading by the uninitiated sound a bit less polarized than the statement on Kosovo and Albania, but that it is not how it will be read in the Balkans. Some Serbs and Croats will resent his mention of genocide, his advocacy on behalf of the Sarajevo government during the war, his support for the NATO intervention that ended it, his support for sanctioning Bosnian Serb leader Dodik, and even his call for reform and reconciliation.
Bosnian Americans, in particular Bosniaks, are at their most concentrated in St. Louis, where they aren’t likely to help Biden much. Missouri is a lock for Trump. Others live mostly in Democratic cities and states, but there are some in Florida, which is a battleground state where even a few votes this way or that can matter a lot, as Bush and Gore discovered in 2000.
The last line in the the Biden/Harris statement is the most important. It is a firm rejection of Dodik’s secession ambition, the likes of which we haven’t heard from the Trump Administration. Biden is not going to be tempted by moving borders in the Balkans and will revert the US to its traditional position in favor of EU membership for all its states. Sounds right to me.
PS: A correspondent claims I undervalued the Bosnian American populations in Georgia and Iowa. That could make a difference in both states.
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