Tag: Balkans
Serbia should not be at stake in US elections
Saša Janković, expert on human rights and security governance, former Serbian National Ombudsman, and runner up at the Serbian presidential election of 2017, writes in Belgrade daily Danas:
From circles close to the Democrats in the United States, two short program documents of their candidate for US President Joseph Biden were recently published – one on the vision of American-Albanian relations, essentially addressed to Albanians from Kosovo and Albania, and the other on the future of American-BiH relations. In both documents, Biden emphasizes on the one hand his help and vision for Kosovo, Albania and BiH and, on the other hand, his efforts to suppress the harmful influence of Serbia and certain Serbian politicians. After the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, joined Donald Trump’s pre-election campaign, Biden hereby took the position “Serbia has chosen its side, I am also choosing it.”
Improving relations between Serbia and the United States is the utmost Serbian national interest. However, by the so-called economic agreement with Pristina under Trump’s patronage, in the middle of his presidential campaign, Aleksandar Vucic approached Trump, not America; he made a hazardous move, entered the gamble of extremely uncertain American presidential elections, and put Serbia as a stake.
It is clear why Vučić decided to gamble – he is slowly but surely losing his footing in the European Union, especially Germany, and without the previous open support from abroad, his government is on glass legs. But Serbia, which still avails of the remnants of once balanced and stable Yugoslav diplomacy, did not need such gambling.
In the previous presidential elections in the USA, Vučić supported the candidate who lost. That, a much less visible mistake, he paid with a three-and-a-half-year cold attitude of the winner. Now, at the very end of Trump’s (first) mandate, Vučić is paying for a ticket to fly to his bench by disrupting Serbia’s diplomatic relations with Russia, the EU, the Arab world and Palestine. In the event of Biden’s victory, Serbia will pay even more for Vučić’s new dice.
It would have been better for everyone if Biden had ignored Vučić’s classification with Trump. Especially since Aleksandar Vučić does not really control the will of the Serbian diaspora – in the last presidential elections he won only 10% of its votes in the USA, and the second-runner, who is in opposition to him, won 60%. If Biden found the strength to stand up and extend his hand towards Serbia, that would be a real sign of a winning mentality. That sign would be noticed and rewarded by Serbs in America. They are small electorate, but it seems that every vote will be precious.
On this side of the ocean, the government in Serbia should pursue state, not private and party interests. And the opposition should not rejoice to the chance that anyone from abroad, including Biden, will punish Vučić. As in 1998, Serbia and its citizens would pay the largest fine in such a scenario.
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Peace Picks | October 26 – October 30, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Elevating Humanitarian Action in Sudan’s Democratic Transition | October 27, 2020 | 10:30 – 11:30 AM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
On October 19, the White House announced it was taking steps to delist Sudan as a state sponsor of terrorism (SST), clearing the way for increased international assistance and opportunities for development financing. Removing Sudan from the SST list is long overdue and comes at a pivotal moment for its nascent political transition. Prior to the Covid-19 crisis, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimated that 9.3 million people in Sudan would need humanitarian assistance in 2020. Now, months of heavy flooding have led to increased displacement, while high levels of inflation are making it increasingly difficult for people to purchase food and limiting the services humanitarian organizations can provide.
Sudan’s ongoing democratic transition has enabled increased humanitarian access for multilateral aid organizations, yet restrictions on NGOs remain, and prospects for enhanced access are uncertain. As peace negotiations and the democratic transition continue, political leaders in Sudan must ensure that meeting humanitarian needs remains at the forefront of their agenda.
In a follow-up to our recent commentary, this webinar will highlight the enduring humanitarian needs in Sudan and examine how Sudanese political actors can prioritize humanitarian needs during the state’s democratic transition. To help understand these issues, we will be joined by Dr. Suliman Baldo, Senior Advisor at The Sentry, and Hala Al-Karib, Regional Director at the Strategic Initiative for Women in the Horn of Africa.
Speakers:
Dr. Suliman Baldo: Senior Adviser, The Sentry
Hala Al-Karib: Regional Director, Strategic Initiative for Women in the Horn of Africa
2. Local Elections, National Implications: Ukraine at the Ballot Box | October 27, 2020 | 12:00 PM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Ukraine’s local elections on October 25 are highly contested and impossible to predict. Following President Zelenskyy’s landslide victory last year, he and his party have fallen in the polls, with approval ratings hovering below 35 percent. With deadlocked peace talks, a continued war in the Donbas, stalled reforms, and increased coronavirus cases devastating the economy, a 2019-style victory for Servant of the People is increasingly unlikely. The new electoral code, which bars independents from running in districts with more than 10,000 citizens, further complicates the picture.
Mykhaylo Shtekel, Odesa correspondent and Donbas reporter for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) Ukrainian Service, Nataliya Sedletska, editor-in-chief and host of RFE/RL’s “Schemes: Corruption in Detail”, Adrian Karatnycky, Eurasia Center senior fellow and managing partner at Myrmidon Group LLC, and Brian Mefford, Eurasia Center senior fellow and managing director at Wooden Horse Strategies LLC, will analyze the results and what they mean for Ukraine’s future. Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, moderates.
Speakers:
Mykhaylo Shtekel: Odesa correspondent and Donbas reporter for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) Ukrainian Service
Nataliya Sedletska: editor-in-chief and host of RFE/RL’s “Schemes: Corruption in Detail”
Adrian Karatnycky: Eurasia Center senior fellow; managing partner at Myrmidon Group LLC
Brian Mefford: Eurasia Center senior fellow; managing director at Wooden Horse Strategies LLC
Melinda Haring: Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
3. Election 2020: Driving Forces and Possible Outcomes | October 27, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:30 PM EDT | Brookings Institute | Register Here
As voters begin casting their ballots in the 2020 election, many issues still have the potential to transform the political landscape and determine the outcome of the presidential election, as well as congressional, gubernatorial, and statehouse races across the country. Voters go to the polls with several serious policy issues on their mind including an economy in recession, the COVID-19 pandemic, health care, race relations, social justice, women’s rights, and the future of the judiciary. These issues raise a number of questions that will determine the outcome of the election.
During a campaign season colored by the pandemic, will congressional leadership and the White House strike a deal for another round of economic stimulus before Election Day? And how will delays in a relief package affect House members and senators in tough reelection fights?
With a Supreme Court nomination in process that has the potential to shape the country for years, will Republican voters show up at the polls on election day to reward GOP Senate candidates like Lindsay Graham, Cory Gardner, and Joni Ernst for voting to confirm Amy Coney Barrett? Will Democratic backlash hurt those senators’ chances for reelection?
Long lines, postal delays, concerns about voter intimidation and suppression, and the possibility of contested elections have raised concerns about the integrity of the U.S. elections process. How will political leaders and courts respond when the influx of mail-in ballots might extend election day to several weeks? And will efforts to disrupt voting strike a chord with voters in affecting their drive to vote and their vote choice?
On October 27, one week before election day, Governance Studies at Brookings will host a webinar to discuss the driving forces and possible outcomes of the 2020 election. Expert panelists will offer their analysis on these and other pressing issues and answer questions from viewers.
Speakers:
John Hudak, moderator: Deputy Director – Center for Effective Public ManagementSenior Fellow – Governance Studies
William A. Galston: Ezra K. Zilkha Chair and Senior Fellow – Governance Studies
Sarah A. Binder: Senior Fellow – Governance Studies
Elaine Kamarck: Founding Director – Center for Effective Public ManagementSenior Fellow – Governance Studies
Rashawn Ray: David M. Rubenstein Fellow – Governance Studies
Vanessa Williamson: Senior Fellow – Governance StudiesSenior Fellow – Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center
4. Kyrgyzstan’s Unfinished “Revolution”: How the Upheaval from 2020 Is Different | October 28, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
For the third time in 15 years, protesters in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek have seized and set fire to the “White House,” the seat of parliament and presidential staff. The chaotic situation has toppled President Jeenbekov and is still rapidly evolving, with political actors jockeying for power. It’s a scene all too familiar to Kyrgyzstan, which since 2005 has experienced several cycles of protests and calls for advancing democracy followed by backsliding into authoritarianism. But this time around, even with all the familiar players and moves, there are also strong differences that are worth thorough assessment.
Join USIP for a discussion of the ongoing situation in Kyrgyzstan and its implications for peace and stability in Central Asia. The conversation will examine how organized crime, youth mobilization, social media, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic have factored into the crisis. The discussion will also analyze how the United States and the region, including Kyrgyzstan’s Central Asian neighbors and Russia, are assessing and responding to the developments.
Speakers:
Scott Worden, welcoming remarks: Director, Afghanistan and Central Asia Programs, U.S Institute of Peace
Dr. Mariya Omelicheva: Professor of Strategy, National War College
Jonathan Henick: Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau for South & Central Asian Affairs, U.S. Department of State
Dr. Andrew Kuchins: President, American University of Central Asia
Dr. Ivan Safranchuk: Leading Research Fellow, Institute for International Studies, MGIMO
Keneshbek Sainazarov: Central Asia Program Director, Search for Common Ground
Dr. Gavin Helf, moderator: Senior Expert, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
5. Women, Democracy, and Peace: A Conversation with First Lady of Afghanistan Rula Ghani and Former First Lady of the United States Laura Bush | October 28, 2020 | 8:00 AM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Afghanistan is entering a new phase, with ongoing talks offering an opportunity for peace and stability after years of conflict. As the government and the Taliban negotiate peace, questions remain regarding the future of gender equality and minority rights in the country. What will it take to ensure long-term security without compromising on the rights of women and minorities in Afghanistan? How do the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic impact the ability to sustain democratic institutions in the country?
Building upon their longstanding partnership to promote women’s rights in Afghanistan, the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center and the George W. Bush Institute invite you to join us on October 28 at 8:00 A.M. (EDT) / 4:30 P.M. (Kabul) for a virtual conversation with First Lady of Afghanistan Rula Ghani and former First Lady of the United States Laura Bush on these issues and to lend their insight into what will need to be done to ensure an equitable and inclusive peace.
Speakers:
H.E. Rula Ghani: First Lady of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Mrs. Laura Bush: Former First Lady of the United States
6. Negotiating Peace: Lessons from the Western Balkans | October 28, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 12:30 PM EDT | Wilson Center | Register Here
25 years ago, the Dayton Peace Accords ended conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, violence continued in the Western Balkans, which led to the Kosovo War and the international mediation needed to end it. Even after the conflict stopped, Serbia and Kosovo struggle with their relations. Today, the Western Balkans remains turbulent. Join us as two experienced European negotiators discuss what lessons can be drawn from efforts to negotiate peace in the Balkans, both for the region and elsewhere.
Speakers:
The Right Honourable Catherine Ashton, Baroness of Upholland: Bank of America Chair, Global Europe Program; Former Vice President of the European Commission and former High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy
Carl Bildt: Former Prime Minister of Sweden; Former UN Special Envoy for the Balkans; Co-Chair, Dayton Peace Conference
Jane Harman: Director, President, and CEO, Wilson Center
7. The Implications of Brexit for Ireland: A Conversation with Irish Ambassador Daniel Mulhall | October 29, 2020 | 1:30 – 2:30 PM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
Please join us for a conversation with H.E. Daniel Mulhall, Ambassador of Ireland to the United States, about the implications of Brexit for Ireland. This discussion will be moderated by Bill Reinsch, CSIS Scholl Chair and Senior Adviser, and Heather Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic and Director of the Europe Program at CSIS.
With the deadline for reaching a trade agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom fast approaching, there is growing concern that new borders, customs procedures and tariffs may be imposed which will harm both the Irish and Northern Ireland economies. The UK government has moved forward with legislation, the Internal Market Bill, which allows the UK government to breach its legal agreement with the EU on Northern Ireland. The EU has recently initiated legal procedures against the UK for this legislation and prominent members of Congress have stated that the Internal Market Bill or anything else that jeopardizes the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, makes a future US-UK trade agreement impossible. U.S. Special Envoy to Northern Ireland, Mick Mulvaney, recently visited Dublin and Belfast to assess the impact of the Internal Market Bill. Irish Ambassador to the U.S., Ambassador Daniel Mulhall will present the Irish government’s perspective on the situation, on prospects for an acceptable resolution, and the economic and political implications if one does not appear.
Speakers:
H.E. Daniel Mulhall: Ambassador of Ireland to the United States
Heather Conley: Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic and Director of the Europe Program at CSIS
Bill Reinsch: CSIS Scholl Chair and Senior Adviser
8. The Good, Bad, and Ugly: How the World Sees the United States | October 29, 2020 | 9:00 – 9:50 AM EDT | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
Critics make a strong case that the United States has never been less respected or admired abroad than it is today. President Trump’s disruptive policies abroad and his mishandling of the pandemic at home have fundamentally undermined U.S. credibility in the eyes of both allies and adversaries in the short run, but will the damage last? And if Joe Biden wins in November, what will the world expect from U.S. leadership?
Join us as three veteran foreign correspondents, Christiane Amanpour, Steven Erlanger, and David Rennie, sit down with Aaron David Miller to discuss the United States and its role in the world.
Speakers:
Aaron David Miller: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Christiane Amanpour: Chief International Anchor, CNN; Host, “Amanpour & Company”, PBS
Steven Erlanger: Chief Diplomatic Correspondent, Europe, The New York Times.
David Rennie: Beijing bureau chief, The Economist
9. Ten Years On: A Post-Arab Spring Middle East | October 29, 2020 | 2:00 -3:00 PM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The conditions that led to the 2011 Arab Spring protests continue to linger in the Middle East and North Africa. Widespread corruption, political repression, human rights abuses, and economic difficulties proliferate throughout the region, and have been complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Tunisia is often considered an Arab Spring success story, but despite a number of notable improvements since 2011, its fragile democratic transition has had little impact on the day-to-day lives of average Tunisians, and the economic realities that led to the 2011 uprising largely remain unchanged. In countries such as Syria, Yemen, and Libya, civil conflict and foreign intervention have worsened these crises without addressing the root causes of instability.
How have the Arab Spring protests changed the Middle East and affected regional stability over the past decade? What role does the United States play in the various crises throughout MENA and how does it affect American foreign policy goals?
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host its third event in a series to discuss the recently published briefing book, Election 2020: Challenges and Opportunities for US Policy in the Middle East. The briefs in this book offer policy insights from MEI scholars on key issues in the Middle East and serve as a contribution to the broader discussion about the challenges and opportunities for US policy in the region.
Speakers:
Nadwa Al-Dawsari: Non-resident Scholar, MEI
William Lawrence: Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, American University
Charles Lister: Senior fellow and director, Countering Terrorism and Extremism and Syria Programs, MEI
Mirette Mabrouk: Director and senior fellow, Egypt program, MEI
Ibrahim Al-Assil, moderator: Senior fellow, MEI
10. Strengthening Global Safeguards and Security in an Advanced Nuclear Age | October 29, 2020 | 1:00 PM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The Atlantic Council and Third Way are co-hosting a virtual event highlighting the potential global market for advanced nuclear technologies, and the important role safeguards and security must play in ensuring US reactors are ready to compete.
We are delighted to invite you to join our virtual event on the afternoon of Thursday, October 29th, 2020, from 1:00 – 2:30 p.m. EDT. Over the last five years there has been significant technological, financial, and policy progress toward developing and commercializing advanced nuclear reactors in the US. But we are not alone in this pursuit. China and Russia are both developing new reactor designs aggressively to capture the emerging market for advanced nuclear and the global influence that will come with it. It is in the best interest of the world for safety, proliferation, and climate reasons, that the US leads the way.
To maintain the United States’ global leadership, advanced nuclear reactors should not only provide affordable, zero-carbon power; they should provide it in a way that builds upon the nuclear security architecture developed over the last five decades. The US government and advanced nuclear developers could be in the position to enhance global nuclear security and safeguards as a new set of aspiring nuclear countries looks at deploying a new generation of nuclear reactors.
The event will feature keynote remarks by Dr. Brent Park, Deputy Administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the National Nuclear Security Administration. Immediately following his remarks, Third Way will present a first-of-a-kind international advanced nuclear map and global market analysis, and we will host a panel discussion on the critical role US clean energy innovation can play in reducing emissions in the US, addressing energy poverty around the world, and the challenges and opportunities presented by applying safeguards- and security-by-design to the next generation of nuclear energy technologies.
Speakers:
Keynote remarks
Dr. Brent Park: Deputy Administrator, Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation, National Nuclear Security Administration
Panel Discussion
Laura Holgate, Ambassador (ret.): Vice President, Materials Risk Management, Nuclear Threat Initiative
Allison Johnston: Director, Office of International Nuclear Security,National Nuclear Security Administration
Christine King: Director, Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear, Idaho National Laboratory
Kevin Veal: Director, Office of International Nuclear Safeguards, National Nuclear Security Administration
Jackie Kempfer, moderator: Senior Policy Adviser, Climate and Energy Program; Senior Fellow, Global Energy Center
Closing remarks
Dr. Jennifer Gordon: Managing Editor and Senior Fellow, Global Energy Center, Atlantic Council
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Still polarization, this time in support of Bosnia
I missed until now Biden and Harris statement on Bosnia and Herzegovina:
This may at first reading by the uninitiated sound a bit less polarized than the statement on Kosovo and Albania, but that it is not how it will be read in the Balkans. Some Serbs and Croats will resent his mention of genocide, his advocacy on behalf of the Sarajevo government during the war, his support for the NATO intervention that ended it, his support for sanctioning Bosnian Serb leader Dodik, and even his call for reform and reconciliation.
Bosnian Americans, in particular Bosniaks, are at their most concentrated in St. Louis, where they aren’t likely to help Biden much. Missouri is a lock for Trump. Others live mostly in Democratic cities and states, but there are some in Florida, which is a battleground state where even a few votes this way or that can matter a lot, as Bush and Gore discovered in 2000.
The last line in the the Biden/Harris statement is the most important. It is a firm rejection of Dodik’s secession ambition, the likes of which we haven’t heard from the Trump Administration. Biden is not going to be tempted by moving borders in the Balkans and will revert the US to its traditional position in favor of EU membership for all its states. Sounds right to me.
PS: A correspondent claims I undervalued the Bosnian American populations in Georgia and Iowa. That could make a difference in both states.
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Polarization at home, polarization abroad
The Biden Harris campaign has released this on relations with Albania and Kosovo:
The statement speaks for itself, loud and clear. Many friends in Belgrade won’t like it, because they have enjoyed the Trump Administration’s tilt in their direction. Many Albanians in both Kosovo and Albania will be delighted, even though it adds little or nothing to what Biden has already been said on the most salient issue: the dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade.
Belgrade had already opted for open support of Donald Trump’s re-election. The leading opposition figure in Pristina, Albin Kurti, had already opted for open support of Joe Biden, though the government there is likely to remain circumspect. Albanians know they have gotten the short end of the stick in this Administration, but they don’t want to offend Donald Trump, for fear of the transactional consequences. That won’t prevent most of them from celebrating if Biden is elected.
The consequences inside the US electorate are marginal at best. The biggest Albanian community I know of is in New York City. It won’t make much difference there, since both the City and the State will vote overwhelmingly for Biden. Serbs may have a bigger impact, as there is a significant number in Ohio, which is a swing (or battleground) state. It has been tilting towards Trump (65% chance of his winning it, according to The Economist). But the bigger Serb populations in big cities like Chicago and Milwaukee are unlikely to have much impact in Illinois and Wisconsin respectively. Illinois is a lock for Biden and Wisconsin is leaning heavily his way.
It is unfortunate that Albanian Americans and Serb Americans are aligning themselves so clearly with Democrats and Republicans, but understandable in current circumstances. Our polarization at home naturally engenders polarization abroad. Long gone from Capitol Hill is Ohio Republican Senator Vojnovic, who managed more or less to straddle the Serb/Albanian divide, and soon to be gone (defeated in his primary) is New York Congressman Engel, who tried but is far more popular among Albanians than among Serbs.
President Trump is still occasionally expressing his disappointment at not getting a Nobel Peace Prize for the mostly useless agreement between Pristina and Belgrade that his minions negotiated in hopes of buttressing his campaign. I suppose he may reprise that silliness in Thursday night’s debate with Biden, when the President wants to focus on foreign policy in order to distract attention from the disastrous resurgence of Covid 19. If he does, Biden will know how to respond. He has forgotten far more about the Balkans than Trump has ever known.
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Escaping the shadow of the past
A Serbian friend writes:
The saying that “nothing grows in the shadow of a big tree” reflects the last 20 years of effort to normalize the relationship between Belgrade and Pristina. The “big tree of the past” provided a comfortable shadow for nationalism, negative stereotypes, corruption, and isolation. The wartime generation of political leaders did not look beyond their nationalistic mindsets and political agendas, which secured them leading positions in decision-making structures and the economy for decades. They controlled the money flow from dubious business people and kept the region outside global financial streams. Isolation was the way for them to hold on to power.
Kosovo was a convenient issue on which to demonstrate patriotism and solidify economic interests and political influence. For decades it was considered politically incorrect to offer an alternative approach. Resolution of Kosovo’s status was considered a sine qua non for stability and wellbeing of the region. The international community was hesitant to step beyond a conventional approach that mixed morality, selective interpretation of history, and conviction that Serbia was primarily responsible and would need to pay the price for generations to come. This approach did not yield tangible results.
How we should interpret Belgrade-Pristina economic agreement signed in the White House on September 4, 2020? Why did Ambassador Richard Grenell succeed where many failed before him? Has he ushered in a new peace?
Grenell’s approach: economy before status
Grenell came with an open mind, investing himself fully in the process while applying bulldozer style diplomacy once practiced by the architect of the Bosnia Dayton Peace Accords, former Assistant Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke. Coming from the President’s inner circle, Grenell could make things happen. His recent visit to Belgrade and Pristina (September 21- 22, 2020, two weeks after the White House event) made it clear that economic progress between Belgrade and Pristina is high on his agenda. He was accompanied by Adam Boehler, CEO of the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), US EXIM Bank officials, as well as representatives of various other US agencies. The DFC opened a regional office in Belgrade and signed a separate agreement with Pristina. The Americans committed to secure equity and insurance for infrastructural projects and financial incentives for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Both Belgrade and Pristina needed a powerful interlocutor like Grenell, who serves as an alibi before their domestic constituencies to start with something new. Both gained at home. The White House meeting injected President Vucic with legitimacy. It is something no other Serbian leader has achieved, a tête-à-tête with a US President. The same applies to Pristina Prime Minister Abdullah Hoti, who is walking on thin ice at home. Opposition to parts of the deal by his coalition partner nearly destroyed chances to reach agreement. After some friendly arm-twisting, Hoti walked out of the Oval Office strengthened politically.
The American bulldozer provided both leaders with an excuse to step aside from well-rehearsed nationalist rhetoric, at least for a moment. The immature political culture and zero-sum thinking of the 90s could certainly return.
By putting “economy before status,” Grenell’s achieved a lot:
- The US returned as an active and committed political, economic, and security factor in the region. Belgrade and Pristina are back on America’s radar.
- There is new hope in the region with the shift of diplomatic focus to the economy and well-being of ordinary citizens.
- The US military presence in the region, essential for stability, has been reaffirmed. It is now unlikely that the Trump Administration will pull US troops out of KFOR and close Camp Bondsteel, close to the Serb community of Urosevac.
- Washington will close the strategic gap and prevent further expansion of Chinese and Russian influence in Belgrade, Pristina, Tirana, and Skopje by investing in infrastructure and economic projects that counter the Chinese sponsored Belt and Road Initiative.
A new game
Economic progress cannot resolve the status issue, but it could relax the negotiating atmosphere. Until now, profound distrust and zero-sum logic has prevailed. The war generation of leaders were unable to step out of their comfortable habits to become peacemakers.
Rarely do hawks transform into doves. The hawks controlled local economies, generating significant personal wealth from illegal and half-legal businesses. In most cases, state institutions turned a blind eye or even openly supported wartime barons in exchange for material compensation. Professional patriots exploited economic activities aimed to increase personal wealth. They had zero incentive to change things.
Only outside intervention could break the decades-long connection between shady local money and nationalist political options. Substantial US investments can marginalize their influence and empower ordinary citizens, build knowledge-based capacity, introduce strict business standards, strengthen the entrepreneurial spirit, and support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). US money comes with conditions.
The peace process is a marathon with numerous obstacles on the way. Agreements are just benchmarks on the way. Implementation is crucially important. Furthermore, although basic elements have been publicized (the promise of overall $3.2 billion allocated to rail, roads, air projects as well as support for SMEs), the specific elements are still not clear. Both Belgrade and Pristina would have to be careful taking multi-billion loans since that would be a significant economic burden for generations to come. Additionally, it is yet to be seen if the US presidential election will influence implementation.
Not everybody is delighted with this US pivot to the Western Balkans. Maria Zaharova, spokesperson of the Russian Federation Ministry of Foreign Affairs, tweeted that the Trump-Vucic meeting looked like a scene from the film “Basic Instinct,” implying that Vucic looked like he was being interrogated. Later she and Foreign Minister Lavrov apologized, unconvincingly. Marko Djuric, an official of Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party, reminded the Russians that Vucic waited for an hour and a half for a meeting with President Putin.
Despite Serbian high hopes, Belgrade is not high on Russia’s agenda. Lacking confidence in Serbian loyalty, Moscow is suspicious and resentful of this American initiative for economic normalization.
Europeanization vs. Americanization
Connecting the US initiative with ongoing EU efforts is important. Positive things happen when the US and the EU join efforts in the region. The EU has invested significant amounts of financial aid and political capital in the region since the 2003 EU – Western Balkans Summit, when the Union pledged to open a European perspective for the countries of the region. That was 17 years ago. In the meanwhile only Slovenia (2004) and Croatia (2013) have become member states, while the other countries have made only modest progress in the accession process. The EU is the largest investor in the region, but so far has not managed to capitalize on its role and secure normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina.
The EU sponsored Belgrade – Pristina dialogue has gone on for 9 years without yielding impressive results. There are many reasons for that, but one of them certainly is not a lack of effort and goodwill by the EU. On the contrary, the EU has invested a lot of its political credibility. One of the fundamental reasons for the modest success so far is the complex EU decision-making process. Henry Kissinger asked, “who do I call if I want to call Europe?” It is easier for Grenell to wield both carrot and stick than for EU High Representative Joseph Borrell, who cannot move quickly because he need multiple approvals. Grenell is not the most popular diplomat in Germany or the EU, but he has made significant progress.
From an outside perspective, it is obvious that the US and the EU need each other to secure long-term stabilization of the Western Balkans and other parts of the world. With loads of energy and strong influence in Belgrade and Pristina, Grenell could move things forward quickly. The EU could provide a slower but more systematic and institutional-based process that solidifies American efforts. The US needs to rediscover the advantages of multilateral diplomacy and put aside the do it alone approach. The EU should embrace Grenell’s initiative and try to build on it, since it furthers EU objectives in the region. Both partners should be ready to share glory and burdens to achieve sustainable results.
Where next?
Outside intervention can be an important element, but local players are the main agents of any profound change. Grenell’s involvement is positive and important, but he should not be seen as a messianic figure. He still has a lot to do. Neither Washington nor Brussels can resolve decades of problems with a magic wand.
Everything comes down to Belgrade’s and Pristina’s estimates of what is good for them. President Vucic decided to invest his political capital in President Trump’s process because it offered an alternative to well-known ready-made blueprints coming from Washington for decades. By contrast, the Kosovo side might want to wait for the results of the US Presidential elections before committing. Former Vice President Biden has strong feelings for Kosovo. If he wins, American policy may shift. Every option comes with risk. The important thing is to choose a strategic orientation wisely and keep moving forward in that direction. Every process takes time to solidify and produce tangible results.
The Economic Normalization Agreement is a step in good direction. If we keep moving, we can escape the shadow of the big tree.
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This is worth something
I received this joint statement of the Serbia and Kosovo Chambers of Commerce today. It is far more explicit and useful than the separate statements signed by the two governments earlier this month at the White House.
on the occasion of the signing of the Agreements on economic normalisation
in Washington, D.C.
- We, the Presidents of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Serbia and Kosovo Chamber of Commerce, representing our business communities, are expressing our support to the improvement of economic and overall relations between the two parties, and to the Agreements signed in Washington D.C. on September 4, 2020, in particular;
- We recognize that the process of normalizing relations between the two parties is an essential prerequisite for improvement of the economic and social well-being of all citizens in the region, and will play a significant role in achieving the overall economic, social and political development of the Western Balkans;
- As the main advocates of the free trade and regional economic integration, we endorse the “Mini Schengen” initiative and acknowledge the importance of continuous advancement of regional cooperation based on four fundamental freedoms of the European Union in fostering prosperity, stability, and competitiveness in the entire Western Balkans region;
- We emphasize the necessity that all parties remain firmly committed to the Agreements and secure their implementation through a carefully designed action plan guaranteeing the success and maximizing offered opportunities;
- We are confident that engagement of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) with its partners, and its permanent presence in the region, demonstrates a strong commitment of the United States of America to contribute to the economic prospects of the entire Western Balkans region;
- Building on our successful cooperation over the past years, our two Chambers remain committed to helping in every possible way to achieve sustainable economic normalization;
- In this spirit, we propose establishing a team for economic cooperation, within our Chambers (with offices in Pristina and Belgrade),comprised of business leaders and experts dealing with economic normalization. The primary role of the team is to contribute actively to the process of economic normalization and provide assistance and guidance to all the parties involved, i.e., to respective governments, the business community, DFC, EXIM, U.S. and E.U. institutions, and all other stakeholders involved in the process;
- In order to contribute more effectively to the implementation of the projects we will establish a number of sectorial groups within the team, in which the sector-specific projects will be discussed, overseen, and developed, namely a group for infrastructure development to contribute to the infrastructural projects dealing with continuation of construction of Peace Highway, reconstruction/modernization of railway lanes and their connections to the ports in Adriatic, construction, and modernization of infrastructure for the industrial zones and providing technology for waste to energy projects, etc.; a group for sustainable energy production and diversification, dealing with energy diversification, support to opening of lithium-based batteries power plant the in region and research and exploitation of lithium and other precious oars; a group for building of a glass factory in the region and thus as enabling a supplier for the whole region and alike; a group for agro-tourism, to explore possibilities to develop sustainable tourism based on advantages local natural resources offer, i.e. Kopanik and Brezovica mountains, Rugova gorge and alike.
- We express our full confidence that implementation of the previously signed agreements:
- reestablishment of air traffic between Belgrade and Pristina;
- reconstruction and modernisation of railway infrastructure on the “eastern” route – Nis – Doljevac – Merdare – Prishtina;
- construction of “Highway of Peace” – Nis-Merdare-Pristina;
will provide both the foundation and instruments to improve the competitiveness significantly, economic cohesion, and connectivity in the entire Western Balkans region;
- We extend our readiness to proactively engage in supporting all parties in identifying projects, conducting feasibility studies, and other needed activities to enhance diversification of energy supplies and contribute to economic, social, and environmental development and benefits for the local communities.
- We commend the DFCs commitment to provide financing to a guarantee scheme for providing loans for small and medium enterprises, which will have a positive effect on our both economies, especially in coping with the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic;
- As the representatives of the business communities, we call on all interested parties to take an active part in advancing economic normalisation stipulated by the Washington and other Agreements, whose full and timely implementation would unleash and harness the creative, economic, natural, and scientific potential of the region as a whole.
Belgrade, September 22, 2020
Marko Čadež, President
Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Serbia
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Berat Rukiqi, President,
Kosovo Chamber of Commerce
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