Tag: Balkans
Much ado about nothing
President Trump today claimed to have done what no one else has ever done before: negotiated an historic agreement between Kosovo and Serbia. He said: “this is a historic day. It took decades as there was no one to get it done.”
This is false. History is littered with agreements between Serbia and Kosovo, many of them unimplemented or only partially implemented. The more technical agreements culminated in the 2013 Brussels agreement on normalization, which among other things acknowledged that Serbia and Kosovo would qualify for and accede to the European Union separately, each at its own pace. That was an implicit recognition of Kosovo sovereignty, since only sovereign states can accede to the EU.
The agreement signed at the White House today is nowhere near as dramatic as that. It is basically an agreement to agree on a series of economic steps that some think will eventually lead to progress on the political front, with a few bells and whistles added for Trump glitter purposes. The economic steps are good ones, as far as they go. But they are unlikely to transform the relationship between Serbia and its one-time autonomous province, now an independent state recognized as such by about 100 other states but not a member of the United Nations.
If there is any big news in the announcement today, it is that Israel has agreed to recognize Kosovo, which must really gall President Vucic as Serbia has long cultivated its relationship with Israel. The other, modest, news is a mutual one-year moratorium: Kosovo agrees to suspend its effort to enter international organizations in exchange for Serbia agreeing to suspend its “de-recognition” campaign. That is renewal of an earlier agreement on a shorter timeline.
Serbian President Vucic explicitly rejected recognizing Kosovo during the talks at the White House. This move came when the Americans, who had repeatedly pledged to focus the White House meetings exclusively on economic issues, put in front of him a draft containing recognition language. He dismissed it out of hand and in public. I hope no one in the Administration expected anything different.
It may even have given Vucic some political room to agree on the economic issues, which are however a bit a yawn. The first part is just promises to implement existing transportation and border agreements. Then comes joining “mini-Schengen,” which is still more aspirational than actual, and mutual recognition of diplomas and professional certificates, which I believe has been agreed in the past but I’ll have to check. Then comes a non-agreement to work with the US Department of Energy for arrangements on Trepca and Gazivoda, again more aspirational than actual for now.
Switch channels to things Washington insisted on: blocking Huawei provision of 5G, tougher airport screening, and commitment to freedom of religion as well as implementation of judicial decisions on church property (which is a reference to a longstanding dispute over the quiet zone around Decani monastery in Kosovo). Plus decriminalization of homosexuality and treating all of Hizbollah as a terrorist group.
Along the way there is a pledge to work on missing people from the 1999 war and its aftermath, something that should have been done long ago and has been pledged many times. It is a human issue, not an economic one, but the more explicit language hopefully portends more implementation than in the past.
I am not seeing President Vucic’s signature on the document I picked up on Twitter from Agron Bajrami. I hope it is there. If not, this isn’t really an agreement but rather an unilateral pledge by Kosovo, which would make it an even less impressive achievement.
Even with the Serbian President’s signature, it’s okay, but a long way short of historic. One might even say much ado, about nothing.
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Stevenson’s army, September 4
Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg cites 4 unnamed sources to report disparaging remarks Pres. Trump made about US military personnel, including calling war dead “losers.”
AP has confirmed the story. [Since Goldberg is close to Jim Mattis, I suspect Mattis and John Kelly as likely sources.]
WSJ says WH is likely to nominate Koch Institute analyst who favors rapid US withdrawal as ambassador to Afghanistan. Previous ambassadors were career diplomats.
FP says political appointee to USAID conflict prevention bureau has done damage there.
SAIS prof Ed Joseph has background on Serbia-Kosovo conflict with WH meeting today.
A student in Congress class shares a “reform Congress’ article from the late John DIngell [D-Mich].
CJR editor explains how ratings drive TV news coverage at CNN and MSNBC
Reuters reports US troops to Lithuania because of Belarus unrest.
More from Military Times poll: troops want to rename bases.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Why bother with the Balkans?
The short answer to this question is the election campaign. Failed Ambassador to Germany/failed Acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell is trying to deliver a foreign policy spectacular to President Trump’s re-election prospects, which right now are dim. The model is the Israel/UAE agreement: bragging rights to something the President can say no one else has ever achieved. Thus the invitation to Serbian President Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Hoti to meet under White House auspices and maybe even get a meeting with the President, if the two leaders give him something he can use in the electoral campaign.
The Administration is suggesting that the focus will be on economic issues, perhaps just implementation of agreements on air, rail, and highway links between the two countries. That however would be hard to dress up as worthy of the President’s attention, so more than likely some other things will be on the agenda: maybe special economic zones on the border/boundary between the two, or some sort of agreement to redevelop the mining complex known as Trepca and manage the water supply known as Gazivoda, both of which transcend the border/boundary. Depending on the details, where the devil resides, those could be useful economically.
Everyone is going out of their way to deny that any ethnically-based exchange of territory between Kosovo and Serbia is contemplated, a bad idea that would destabilize the region and help Vladimir Putin justify Russian aggression in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. But that of course doesn’t mean someone won’t try to revive the zombie and repackage it as a Trump achievement. It would be consistent both with his pattern of being good to Putin and with his white nationalist inclinations. Prime Minister Hoti has pledged his government will oppose the idea. His thin majority in parliament would likely evaporate if he returned to Pristina trying to sell it.
There is little likelihood of a so-called “final” agreement that normalizes relations between Kosovo and Serbia through mutual diplomatic recognition, exchange of ambassadorial-level representatives, and membership for Kosovo in the United Nations. President Vucic has telegraphed that he is not prepared for anything big of this sort, despite the fact that he is in a strong political position at home and could likely do it with minimal and temporary political damage. Prime Minister Hoti insists that full normalization is the goal of the talks. He would be a historic figure in Kosovo if he could achieve normalization, but it doesn’t look likely during this visit to Washington. If it happens, I’ll be the first to applaud.
One important issue the President and Prime Minister have seemed ready to proceed on is missing people from the 1999 Kosovo war and its aftermath. The still unidentified whereabouts of the missing (bodies) is inexcusable. This should have been settled soon after the war. But better late than never, as it would give both Hoti and Vucic something their citizens would appreciate on returning from Washington.
But that is not what Trump wants or needs. He is looking for a diplomatic triumph to parade in front of the American electorate. Few Americans care about the Balkans, but in our current highly polarized political scene a Rose Garden ceremony, which President Trump has promised if the two do something really good, might give the flagging Trump campaign a bit of a fillip. That is certainly what Grenell needs, if only for getting the next job he can fail at.
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Serbia is oscillating, not turning
A Serbian friend writes:
Serbia has recently purchased refurbished Russian-made MiG-29 combat aircraft, Mi17, and Mi35 helicopters, Pantsir -S medium-range surface-to-air and anti-aircraft system, Chinese-built CH—92A combat drones (UCAVs) and according to some media reports the Chinese FK-3 anti-aircraft system. These purchases have made some in the West believe Belgrade is making a sharp Eastern turn, de-facto abandoning EU integration and decades of partnership with NATO within the Partnership for Peace (PfP). An influx of Chinese investments in the Serbian economy and infrastructure amplifies that impression. Is this a swing to the East or might be something else?
Let’s begin with the basics. Since 1999, the US and EU have paid little attention to the Balkans. The US was busy with Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East, and other conflict areas, delegating post-conflict stabilization of the Western Balkans to the EU. Despite the 2003 Thessaloniki declaration committing to integrate the region, the Union has hesitated. Slovenia and Croatia became member states, but Macedonia was on hold for decades due to the name dispute with Greece, and other countries are only slowly moving through the bureaucratic phases of the accession process.
The Western Balkans was too poor and too unstable for quick integration, which the EU didn’t want after its bad experience with Bulgaria and Romania. For nine years the EU tried to facilitate dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, without tangible results. Bosnia remains divided. Nothing has dramatically changed in the region for decades. Many countries of the region struggle with the “Balkan Ghosts” of nationalism, corruption, negative stereotypes, poverty, and brain drain. The shadow of an autocratic collective mindset has never dissipated. Democratic processes and institutions are not safe from overpowering executive power, the judiciary is not truly free and independent, the grip of executive power and influential individuals over media has never disappeared. The NGO community, once strong, almost perished after funders lost interest. Few checks and balances remain. Populist right-wing movements got stronger, mobilizing masses for the political benefit of local elites.
The EU is also not immune to right-wing populism, nationalism, and xenophobia, which are growing trends in some member states. There is no linear progress and the everlasting victory of European democratic values, which are threatened by the heritage of autocratic mentality and collective mindset. Things turn quickly back to the “old track” if the population does not nourish and genuinely accept democracy.
Serbia in particular had its struggles after devastating sanctions, dictatorship, and conflicts in Croatia, Bosnia, and Kosovo, which not only crippled the economy but also damaged national values and consciences. Yugoslav identity collapsed. Many Serbs searched and tried to rediscover who they were and where they belonged. Their ambitious, intelligent, and arrogant leader, Slobodan Milosevic, did not understand the world after the collapse of the Eastern Block. Serbian policy was reactionary, hovering between the desire to protect Serbs in other former Yugoslav republics, a self-image of strength and greatness, and the general feeling of rejection by almost all others, including most of the international community. Isolated and outcast, Serbia ended up in limbo, with no proper way out. The policy of neutrality, which is to some extent based on non-alignment mindset from the Yugoslav communist era, was the only logical way to go. The result is Serbia tolerated by all, but not entirely trusted by anyone.
For 30 years, Serbia has not been able to decide to go either East or West. The pendulum swings from side to side. This requires constant juggling and balancing, which is dangerous, expensive, and unproductive.
China and Russia are far away and no country in the region is big enough to be an important ally.
Russian economic presence in Serbia is limited mostly to the energy sector (since 2009 the Serbian National Oil Company NIS is majority-owned by Gazprom-Neft) and media (Sputnik and some web portals). Russia is today not a big investor. Russian infrastructure loans are not fully utilized. Moscow sells arms cheaper than Western ones, but there are no free rides or brotherhood policy there. Serbia has also recently purchased Airbus H145M helicopters, and President Vucic recently announced that Serbia could purchase some weapons from the US and Israel. After its abortive effort to take over the Pristina Airport in June 1999, Russia abandoned Kosovo, as it has no profound geostrategic interest in the region. Moscow continued to help Serbia politically in difficult times, for which Serbia is grateful. Moscow keeps its foot in the door and tries to sustain its influence to prevent Serbian membership into NATO, which was never a real option due to the 1999 bombing and Serbia’s policy of military neutrality. Serbian and Russian interests coincide with the independence of Kosovo since Russia opposed it.
Russia has never however favored Serbia over other countries of the region. Croatia and Bulgaria were always crucially important countries for Russia. Almost 15 years ago Russian President Putin decorated former Croatian President Stjepan Mesic for contributing to the anti-fascist struggle. No one from Serbia ever received such an honor. During the Communist period, the Soviet leadership did not favor Serbs, who represented an obstacle to Communism due to their deep commitment to Orthodoxy, Serbian identity, and national traditions. During the 1990s Yeltsin did not favor Milosevic since his wife, Mirjana Markovic, openly supported Yeltsin’s opponents. Additionally, Yeltsin did not want to jeopardize relations with the US and the West over Serbia. Former Prime Minister of Russia Chernomyrdin allegedly delivered a threat to Milosevic that Serbia would be flattened if he refused to withdraw from Kosovo.
Historical ties to Russia are however strong. For decades former Yugoslavia purchased Soviet weapons, which with some modifications were sold to third countries. The Soviets turned a blind eye because they did not want to jeopardize fragile political relations between Stalin and Tito. Most Yugoslavs at that time, including the Serbian population, considered the Red Army and Soviets brothers and liberators. The Kingdom of Yugoslavia also hosted pro-czarist Russian emigrants who had fled after the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917. These well-educated emigrants helped the progress of Serbian society since they worked as medical doctors, engineers, musicians, etc. They are deeply integrated into Serbian society.
Serbia belongs to Europe, and that Europe is a foundation of its foreign policy. Although there were some initiatives in a past to establish closer ties with Moscow (proposed by Vojislav Seselj’s Serbian Radical Party), it is hard to imagine any substantial alliance with no common border. Such an alliance would also be impossible since Serbia is surrounded by NATO member states. Christian Orthodox heritage and generally mutually positive sentiment are not sufficient foundations for a substantial deepening of relations. Therefore, although Serbian bilateral relations with Russia are stable, friendly, and good, that does not mean that Serbia is making a sharp turn to the East.
The same logic applies to China.
Serbia is just too small to play an important role in China. Beijing wants to expand throughout the Balkans to counter US influence, exploiting the historic relationship with Hoxha’s Communist Albania to spread its influence also to Kosovo, and Macedonia. As elsewhere, China is supporting infrastructure in Serbia as a part of its Belt and Road Initiative. Only $561 million of $ 2.2 billion in Chinese funds are investments however; the rest is loans. China has invested $8.9 billion in the UK. Does it mean that the UK is a pro-Chinese country?
Serbia is not going East or West. It will continue to trade with the EU, develop a substantial partnership with NATO, nourish friendly relations with Russia, and get cheap loans from China until a major shift occurs. Serbia is balancing many moving parts to survive until the EU decides to open its doors. Although the EU is Serbia’s largest trading partner as well as its biggest donor and investor, Belgrade is still in the outer lobby waiting for the Union to move forward. The main problem is that the Western Balkans is not high on the EU agenda. While the European idea is slowly fading away in the region, a vacuum is growing. It will not remain empty long.
Problems in the Western Balkans cannot be resolved with magic wands from Brussels and Washington. Although foreigners share responsibility for the current situation, the main responsibility falls on local people. If they can find a way to peacefully contain destructive spirits of the past, move on with life and profoundly reform their societies by rule of law and respect of fundamental values of democracy, no foreign help is needed. Local ownership is the key to sustainable progress. Healing the wounds from the past and dismantling the war generation of political leadership (which Pristina is currently experiencing – Belgrade underwent the same experience a decade earlier) are just initial steps, which will not lead to “collective catharsis” or mentality change.
Locals have more to do. They need to strengthen their administrative capacities, deepen their knowledge, dedicate more funds for R&D, and open their minds to be more cosmopolitan through hard work and education. They should travel more and interact with their neighbors, giving an honest chance to a mutual future. That will not be easy, since “dreams of a better past” and zero-sum interpretation of history are deeply rooted. The EU could help to strengthen knowledge-based education in the region, devoting more funds for education and science. The Union could also assist all nations of the Western Balkans to travel freely and enjoy Europe. Interaction of young people with their peers in the EU, US, UK, and other countries is crucially important for developing a prejudice-free post-war leadership generation. This is all within our reach. It does not require too much political capital for implementation. Breaking negative stereotypes is the first step to free our minds from the pitfalls of the past.
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Stevenson’s army, September 1
On this 81st anniversary of the Nazi attack on Poland that started WW2 in Europe, here is some news.
– US government has declassified the “6 assurances” the Reagan administration made to Taiwan. [Only the FT had the story, but here are the documents.]
– President Trump has routinely said, including last night, that he sent National Guard troops to Kenosha and calmed the situation. In fact, no federal action was taken, and the troops were deployed under an interstate agreement. Trump really doesn’t understand the law under which the Guard operates.
– NYT notes how few officers of color have been general officers in the Marine Corps.
– The Hill explains the crazy month Congress faces.
-House Democrats threaten subpoenas to get State/Defense testimony on Afghanistan.
– Opposition party won elections in Montenegro, with complications for NATO.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Putin has good reason to smile today
Montenegro’s parliamentary election Sunday put the collection of opposition parties on top by a single vote, defeating the current governing coalition led by President Djukanovic’s Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS). DPS has been in power for 30 years. The opposition is far more pro-Russian, pro-Serb, and anti-NATO than the center-left DPS, which presided over Montenegro’s independence in 2006 and its entrance into the Alliance in 2017.
Election day by all accounts so far went well, with relatively few irregularities and none that appear to have affected the outcome. Three-quarters of registered voters went to the polls.
The campaign however was marked by interference from Serbia, which supported the opposition, and the Serbian church, which sponsored big demonstrations in recent months against a law it regarded as prejudicial to its interests. Moscow was also active with money and media outlets. There was little pushback from Brussels or Washington, belying the allegation of some European analysts that the West backs stability (“stabilocracy”) even at the cost of democracy. In fact, this has proven not to be the case in recent years in Macedonia with the fall of Prime Minister Gruevski and in Kosovo with the pending indictment of President Thaci. Djukanovic might have wished more backing than he got.
He will now have to preside over a government formation process with still highly uncertain results. The opposition parties have not cohered around a single platform. Who will lead the new government and who will occupy which posts is not clear. There is certainly a possibility that some of the former governing parties that participated in the DPS-led coalition, might want to join the new government, though its pro-Serb and pro-Moscow leanings will make that difficult for Bosniak and Albanian parties that have traditionally allied with DPS. One of the opposition parties has declared forcefully that it will not join a government that includes DPS. It may take a while before the fog clears and a new government can be sworn in.
At stake is Montenegro’s pro-Western orientation and even its sovereignty and independence. The Church-led protests were explicitly aimed at preventing the formation of a Montenegrin Orthodox Church and preserving the property claims of the Serbian Church. Much of the opposition now coming to power opposed Montenegrin independence and NATO membership. Some have denied the genocide at Srbrenica during the Bosnian war and oppose Montenegrin recognition of the independence and sovereignty of Kosovo. Montenegro has opened all the chapters of the EU’s acquis communautaire and is leading the regatta for accession. It is not clear that those coming to power will want, or be capable of, continuing in that direction.
So what we’ve got here is a democratic election that puts the future of democratic Montenegro very much in doubt. Without its commitments to NATO, the EU, and good regional relations, Montenegro could find itself Moscow’s leading achievement in hybrid warfare in the Balkans, where it has repeatedly tried to block countries from turning West. Putin has good reason to smile today.
Here is the video of the interview I did with Voice of America this morning:
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