peacefare.net

Kosovo’s worries

A Kosovar friend writes:

I believe this is where all the problems started: by the narrative that Kosovo is about to die soon as it does not have a final deal with Serbia! This is where all lobbyists for dialogue at any cost have brought the narrative, claiming that we depend on Serbia’s willingness to recognize us. They want us to devote all our energy to a deal.

Yes, dealing with Serbia is important, but not at any cost. The technical dialogue in Brussels had a perverse effect: it stopped recognition of Kosovo, as some in the international community felt they should wait for the results. The dialogue also eliminated the authentic Kosovo Serb parties who accept the Kosovo state. That was done because Serbian President Vucic in the dialogue made a lot of promises and accepted a lot of responsibilities (as he always does). It seemed to the internationals logical to allow him to have his own Kosovo Serb politicians organized in the Lista Srpska. That enables him to control even Kosovo’s internal political life.

Had we devoted our energies after the Ahtisaari plan (2007) and the International Court of Justice decision (2010) advisory opinion about our independence to a real state-building agenda, we would have been in much better position. Instead we depended on the dialogue, which solidified the impression that the Kosovo story was still unfinished. We are where we are and the world has not changed in our direction. But, still I oppose the logic that Kosovo’s future depends on Serbia’s consent.

The ingredients for success in the dialogue do not lay entirely with us. We need Washington and Brussels to have a more supportive approach. Vucic is not going to sacrifice anything for the dialogue. He wants carrots that reward Serbia. Kosovo had to play in the dialogue, as he did. But now the pending indictment of our President and other Kosovo Liberation Army leaders by the Specialist Chambers have made it far more difficult for us.

What is alternative? I am not Nostradamus. Now the situation is more difficult and more complex than ever before.
The Specialist Chambers might drag on for many years. It will damage our image and put at risk our functionality and statehood. The Kosovo political opposition thinks only of how to take power at any cost. We could even end up with two of the worst outcomes: partition without recognition. I am afraid of negative scenarios offering us only a status akin to that of Palestine or union with Albania.

I am speaking as a worried friend and I hope you understand.

Biden on Kosovo/Serbia

Vice President Biden knows which way is up in the Balkans. He issued this statement today:

I have been a longtime and vocal supporter of peace and reconciliation in southeastern Europe, and the decision by Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić to restart dialogue on the normalization of relations between their countries is a vital step forward in this critical region. A comprehensive settlement that will lead to mutual recognition, preserve the sovereignty and territorial integrity of both states, and strengthen their democratic institutions is essential for Kosovo and Serbia to move forward. [my bolding] It would enhance both countries’ security and prosperity, advance their aspirations for membership in the European Union and other multilateral institutions, and support the enduring aim of a Europe whole, free, and at peace.

Reaching this goal requires transatlantic cooperation. History teaches us that when the United States and Europe lead together, we can succeed in ending conflicts and ushering in new opportunities for peace and prosperity – in southeastern Europe and beyond. This partnership is as necessary today as it has ever been, and it requires all parties to work together toward our shared goal. It requires American leadership and partnership. Yet, the Trump administration failed to coordinate with the European Union’s envoys — who have facilitated a dialogue between the two countries for nearly a decade — in planning a White House meeting with the leaders of Kosovo and Serbia last month. While the meeting was ultimately cancelled, the message to our EU partners was still loud and clear. The United States should be working together with our European partners, not turning our back on them. [again my bolding] That’s our best hope to facilitate a sustainable resolution that can unlock a more peaceful, prosperous, and European future for both countries. And if I am elected president, my administration will facilitate peace and security in southeastern Europe and work in tandem with our EU partners to make that dream a reality.

I encourage the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo to approach these talks with a spirit of compromise and reconciliation, knowing that they have the full support of the American people.

Kosovo and Serbia need a better process

Drilon Gashi writes:

Kosovo should set up a technocratic government to counter the dual health and economic crises created by the Coronavirus. Serbia should reevaluate its aims for the “normalization” talks. US and EU facilitators should outline a Kosovo-Serbia deal framework, before serious negotiations begin.

Peace talks between Kosovo and Serbia have rarely had more attention. Kosovo Prime Minister Hoti met with French President Macron today, and the two of them will meet with German Chancellor Merkel and Serbian President Vucic on Friday via videoconference. A planned Washington summit was cancelled last month due to the announcement of a proposed indictment of Kosovo President Thaci on war crimes charges. In Washington the parties were allegedly to discuss a US-led economic agreement, to be followed by a EU-led political agreement in Paris.

There are important economic issues to be resolved. Reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers between the two countries, supporting bilateral industry linkages, and discussing business, trade, and academic coordination would be mutually beneficial. But issues of sovereignty abound in both economic and political talks, and politically contentious topics have often dominated the discussion and eliminated hopes for a Kosovo-Serbia deal. The economic talks are allegedly to discuss co-ownership of Kosovo’s mining assets in Trepca, in its north, and a unique arrangement between Kosovo and Serbia customs.

This would not be bilateral economic cooperation; it would be Serbian incursion into Kosovo’s economic sovereignty. Swapping or partitioning economic assets is no better—perhaps, even worse—than swapping or partitioning land. It would, in the worst case scenario, make independent Kosovo economically defunct—precisely what an ethno-nationalist Serbia government may desire.

Technocrats for Kosovo

The announcement on war crimes charges has embroiled Kosovo politics at a challenging moment. If the charges are confirmed, Thaci has vowed to step down. The current government will find it difficult to elect a new President, as it has a thin majority and lacks public support. Kosovo, Serbia, and several other Balkan countries are witnessing alarming increases of COVID cases and deaths. Not only will their vulnerable health systems come under immense pressure, but the economies of the region will face deepening recession.

Kosovo needs a new, technocratic government, empowered to elect (in parliament) a new President as well as deal with the health and economic impacts of Covid-19 for 6-9 months. This will require political compromise between Hoti’s political party (LDK) and the one that led the previous government (Vetevendosje), which is soaring in the polls and wants elections sooner rather than later. A technocratic government would require support by a grand coalition of parties ministers with public health and economic recovery experience. It should continue anti-corruption efforts, while leaving the more contentious Kosovo-Serbia talks to a newly elected, politically legitimate government.

Serbia needs a rethink

President Vucic is in a much more comfortable position than Prime Minister Hoti. He recently won 75% of the seats in parliament due to an opposition boycott. Serbia’s government has been pushing to keep the talks going as it attempts to leverage its current diplomatic advantage over Kosovo.

Serbia above all is seeking concessions on territory and economic assets, especially the Trepca mine in northern Kosovo. Those ambitions lie far from its citizens primary concerns about democratic rights, economic progress, and faster European Union accession. Protests in Belgrade yesterday show that the Serbian public is concerned with its government’s COVID response and backsliding in the country’s democracy. Rather than pressing his diplomatic advantage, President Vucic should be using his strong position to ensure a fair compromise with Prime Minister Hoti.

The process needs improvement

The only way to strike such a deal is for Kosovo and Serbia to be treated as equal negotiating parties coming together to improve their bilateral relations. For years the EU has affixed all kinds of asterisks and footnotes on Kosovo’s status to appease Serbia and its own non-recognizers. That won’t work if Kosovo and Serbia are to enter a process intended to achieve a sustainable, mutually beneficial deal.

An equal process needs high-level support, but more importantly requires that US and EU facilitators spell out the main framework of a deal before it is negotiated. There has been little transparency about what Brussels and Washington are seeking, and even less about what Pristina and Belgrade want. It is time for the negotiating process to open up to public scrutiny.

*Drilon S. Gashi is an international development specialist based in Washington, D.C. He has spent three years working in Kosovo’s public and non-for-profit sectors and holds a Master of International Affairs from Columbia University.

Shore up the Kosovo state

This week’s announcement that the prosecutor of the Specialist Chambers in The Hague has recommended an indictment of Kosovo President Hashim Thaci and a former Speaker of the parliament wrecked the prospects for a Serbia/Kosovo supposedly “economic” summit that was to have taken place in Washington this weekend. That has led some to conclude that Europeans plotted the maneuver, as they resented the American initiative and some have targeted Thaci for years. I’m more inclined to think the Americans did it to themselves, because they had concluded the summit had little chance of success.

Whatever. It’s hard to believe the unusual, some would say illegitimate, initiative to publicize the indictment recommendation was not known in both in Brussels and Washington before it happened. Neither stopped it. The result is an earthquake that has shaken the Kosovo state.

The right reaction is to reinforce that state. Kosovo will need a government with a wider margin in parliament and a new president.

No Kosovo prime minister should come to Washington or Brussels to re-engage in the dialogue with Belgrade without a majority that comes close to matching that of President Vucic, who won more than 75% of the his parliament’s seats in last weekend’s election in Serbia, as the opposition boycotted.

To achieve this, Kosovo Prime Minister Hoti, who came into office less than two months ago, would need to bring in either Thaci’s Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) or Vetevendosje (Self-Determination, or VV), which led the short-lived government that preceded Hoti’s. Both joining the government is asking too much, as they despise each other. The PDK will be licking its wounds, as the President is its founder and the Speaker is its party secretary, and there are likely other proposed indictees among its leadership. VV would drive a hard bargain but would be a hefty addition to a weak coalition.

If the indictment is confirmed in July, President Thaci will need to resign–in dignity–and commit to go to The Hague to defend himself. There is ample precedent for this: former Prime Minister Haradinaj resigned twice to defend himself in The Hague, successfully. The parliament will then need to elect a new chief of state, or risk new elections within 45 days. A distinguished, uncompromised, and unpolitical candidate, comparable to former President Atifete Jahjaga, is the right direction. Kosovo has an ample supply of well-qualified people, especially women. Few of them can be accused of war crimes and many are unsullied by corruption and other malfeasance.

A new election would likely bring VV back to power with stronger representation in parliament than it had the last time around, when it came in first by a smidgen. But the time and political competition required for an election would leave Kosovo adrift at a crucial moment. A weakened state would be vulnerable to all sorts of shenanigans, by Europeans, Americans, Russians and others. It would be far better if VV’s obvious political strength could be recognized without repeating the October 2019 contest.

With a new president and a widened government, Kosovo needs first and foremost to stabilize itself, ending all attacks on Serbs and Serb property as well as the internecine quarreling within its majority Albanian population, which makes Kosovo look ungovernable. Attacks on Serbs give Belgrade the ammunition it needs to argue that the ethnic groups need to be separated and Serb-occupied territory transferred to Serbia as well as much of the Serb population south of the Ibar river. Such a land/people transfer is an enormous threat to Kosovo as an independent and sovereign state, as it would remove a big obstacle to union with Albania: the Serb population.

The cancelled Washington summit was ill-conceived and no loss to anyone. But Kosovo and Serbia both need to improve their political and economic relations. The EU-run dialogue has been without significant results since 2013, but Brussels still holds the key incentives to make normalization between the two countries a reality, including the promise of Kosovo recognition by the five nonrecognizing EU states. The proper US role is one of support for the EU, which is admittedly difficult right now because the Trump Administration dislikes both Europe and the Union. It would be much easier in a Biden Administration, which is starting to look likely as Covid-19 resurges across red states in the south and west.

But that question won’t be resolved until November 3. Right now the power balance in the Balkans is what counts. Serbia is already strong. Strengthening the Kosovo state is a prerequisite for a better outcome.