Tag: Balkans
Kosovo needs to hedge
Kosovo prides itself on being the most pro-American country on earth. I don’t really know if it is true. Pew does not include Kosovo in its polling. There Vietnam holds the top position. But it is only 84% favorable to the US. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kosovo could equal or beat that.
There are good reasons for Kosovo’s pro-American lean. More than 90% of the population is Albanian. Most of them credit the United States for forcing Serbian Slobodan Milosevic strongman out of Kosovo in 1999. Even the Serbs and other minorities in Kosovo have some reason to be positive about the US, since NATO troops have protected them for more than 20 years. Whether they would admit it however is another question, since Serbia’s attitude toward the US is equivocal at best.
This week it was revealed that an American prosecutor at the Kosovo Specialist Chambers in The Hague has filed charges against Kosovo President Thaci, former Assembly Speaker Veseli, and eight others. It is inconceivable that the American envoy handling Kosovo and Serbia, Richard Grenell, was not informed in advance. He did nothing to stop the revelation, which was a break with the court’s normal procedure, and quickly welcomed Thaci’s decision not to come to Washington for talks with Serbian President Vucic this weekend.
I have nothing against charges for war crimes and crimes against humanity, provided there is sufficient evidence that can be presented in court. If confirmed by one of the judges, the President, Veseli, and the other indictees should resign and go to The Hague to defend themselves, as former Prime Minister Haradinaj has done (several times).
But this incident confirms what I have been telling my Kosovar colleagues for over a year: to diversify their sources of support. The United States is simply no long a reliable advocate of the statehood, independence, and sovereignty of Kosovo. The Trump Administration has for some time leaned in Serbia’s direction on major issues: land and people swaps, tariffs Kosovo levied in retaliation for Serbia’s derecognition campaign, and the leadership of Kosovo’s government, which was changed as the result of American pressure.
The new prime minister, Avdullah Hoti, has also cancelled his appearance in Washington. This is understandable. He has only a one vote margin in the parliament and owes his premiership to President Thaci, who blocked new elections after the previous government fell to a no-confidence vote. Hoti has outlined a clear and I would say compelling platform for the talks with Belgrade, but he is not a political heavyweight and needs support from two-thirds of the parliament for anything he agrees with Serbia. Going to Washington would have left him exposed at home during a crucial juncture in Kosovo politics.
The hour is late, but I believe that Kosovo needs to find some new friends. Germany is a vital supporter, not only because of its weight within the EU but also because it has been unalterably opposed to the land and people swaps the Americans have been open to. Japan, seeing China court Serbia, has upped its game with Kosovo. That’s good.
But most of all Kosovo needs to crack the code on getting the European countries that do not recognize its sovereignty to change their minds. The European Union negotiator for the Balkans, Miroslav Lajcak, promised repeatedly that Slovakia would recognize Kosovo while he was that country’s Foreign Minister. The time has come for him to deliver. EU High Representative Borrell, formerly Foreign Minister of the cardinal non-recognizer, Spain, should also be told that the time has come for Madrid to realize that recognition of Kosovo would in no way undermine Spain’s position on Catalonia, unless Madrid regards itself as analogous to Milosevic’s Belgrade.
If Donald Trump goes down to already likely defeat in November, Kosovo can expect the Biden Administration to return to the traditional American support for its statehood, sovereignty, and independence. But Kosovo will still be a small country in a world increasingly dominated by geopolitics and geoeconomics. The Americans may be more supportive under Biden, but they will also have their hands full with other issues. Bandwagoning with the US paid dividends once upon a time, but sovereign and independent states don’t need to stay in love. Kosovo should hedge its bets.
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Kosovo is in trouble
The Kosovo Specialist Chambers (KSC) and Specialist Prosecutor’s Office (SPO) charged with ensuring accountability for war crimes and crimes against humanity in the aftermath of the 1999 NATO/Yugoslavia war announced today that the prosecutor on April 24 charged President Thaci and former Speaker of the parliament Veseli, who is now the head of the political party Thaci founded. The announcement added:
The Indictment is only an accusation. It is the result of a lengthy investigation and reflects the SPO’s determination that it can prove all of the charges beyond a reasonable doubt. A KSC Pre-Trial Judge is currently reviewing the Indictment to decide on whether to confirm the charges.
The Prosecutor is said to have found it necessary to make the charges public because of “efforts by Hashim Thaci and Kadri Veseli to obstruct and undermine the work of the KSC.”
This surprised me. First, because I have doubted that sufficient evidence still exists even to bring charges, never mind convict. Second, because it comes just days before Pristina and Belgrade are supposed to send delegations to Washington for talks sponsored by the Trump Administration. The SPO is a Trump-named American. I suppose someone may have thought publicizing this secret indictment would bring pressure to bear on Thaci, but it is hard to picture him coming to DC with this indictment pending.
In principle, the talks could proceed anyway, as both the Constitutional Court and the Kosovo Assembly have decided that the responsibility for them lies with the government headed by Avdullah Hoti, not with the President. It may test whether the Prime Minister can exercise independent authority, but it will necessarily put him at considerable political risk. If he appears in Washington, he will be criticized at home and at an enormous disadvantage diplomatically.
It is also a test of Thaci and Veseli. If confirmed by a KSC judge, they should both resign their positions and go to The Hague to defend themselves, as former Prime Minister Haradinaj has done several times. Their resignations would make big waves in Kosovo politics. The Assembly would need to replace Thaci, which would be a big challenge in the aftermath of the indictment. Replacing the head of a political party would be far less controversial, but still consequential. Would the PDK (Democratic Party of Kosovo) respect its Kosovo Liberation Army heritage, or move beyond it to choose someone less connected to the armed rebellion against Serbia?
If Thaci and Veseli do not resign, Kosovo will face other challenges. Neither Europe nor America will be interested in meeting with or helping politicians under indictment. The result will be international isolation. The political response inside Kosovo will be defiance. It is hard to picture anything positive coming of that kind of confrontation. Prospects for international investment, cooperation with NATO, visa-free travel in the EU, and other aspirations will be dashed.
Belgrade of course will be pleased with the indictment, both because it has sought justice for crimes against Serbs in the aftermath of the war and because it will give Serbia a leg up in any negotiations with Europe and the US. Belgrade may try to reopen the question of territorial compromise with Kosovo, claiming that the indictment proves Serbs should not be expected to live in a country dominated by criminal enemies.
To add insult to injury, the strongest supporter of Kosovo in the US Congress, chair of the House International Relations Committee Eliot Engel, was soundly defeated yesterday in a Democratic Party primary in New York City. He will speak for himself, but I won’t be surprised if Engel calls for resignations before he leaves office in January.
So the indictment is not only a personal question for Thaci and Veseli. It is an institutional and international one as well. Kosovo is in trouble.
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Next weekend the Balkans come to DC
Sunday’s Serbian parliamentary election delivered a resounding landslide to President Aleksandar Vucic, as the main opposition parties decided to boycott. They rightly claimed conditions for free and fair elections did not exist, due in large part to media that are not free and courts that are not independent. I still might have preferred they participate, if only to provide a serious opposition voice in parliament, but that is water under the bridge now.
Vucic, elected to a five-year term in 2017, will stand again in 2022. The opposition is divided, incoherent, and weak. Some are right-wing Serb nationalists indistinguishable from the war criminals of the 1990s who sought to create Greater Serbia by chasing Bosniaks, Croats, and Albanians from their homes in Serb-populated or claimed areas of former Yugoslavia. Some are devoted liberal democrats who want to see equal rights for all citizens throughout the Balkans, justice for the victims of the 1990s, and Serbian membership in the European Union. It will be difficult to unify the Serbian opposition, but partial unification brought down Milosevic at the polls. It could happen again.
Vucic, once a minister in Milosevic governments, enjoys the blessings of the nationalists. He has abandoned the unabashed pro-European stance of his last election campaign and now cozies up to Beijing and Moscow, the former because of its money and the latter because of its weapons and Slavic identity. He has harsh words for Europe, despite its substantial assistance and ongoing negotiations for EU accession, and enjoys a good reputation with the Trump Administration, which holds liberal democracy and the EU in disrepute. Ethnic (white) nationalism the Administration’s only consistent ideology. While the State Department was reserved in its reaction to the parliamentary election, the White House will no doubt greet Vucic warmly next weekend, when he is expected to drop in for talks with Kosovo President Thaci under the aegis of former Ambassador to Germany and former Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell.
Some may still hope Vucic will use his strong political position in Serbia to bite the bullet on Kosovo. His position is so strong that he could survive announcing that Belgrade will recognize its now-independent province, exchange ambassadorial-level representatives with it, and sponsor its UN membership. But that isn’t going to happen because he wants Serb-populated territory in exchange. There is little else he can ask for, as the EU and US have provided Serbia with virtually all the goodies in their pockets. Some think a massive investment program might move Vucic in the right direction, but who has the money for that right now? Grenell says he will focus the talks on economic issues. I hope these will include implementing the many technical agreements Pristina and Belgrade have reached but not implemented, as well as removal of the non-tariff trade barriers that their respective chambers of commerce understand well.
It’s incongruous that Washington is focused on economic issues, which are the natural purview of the EU, while Brussels will be focusing on the bigger political questions, on which it has little purchase. This division of labor is more the result of competition than cooperation. It won’t likely last. Virtually any economic issue can be turned into a sovereignty question. All sovereignty questions have economic dimensions. The US and EU would both do better working together than competing, but that is not possible for the Trump Administration. It loathes the EU, and many Europeans, especially Germans displeased by his tenure as ambassador in Berlin, loathe Richard Grenell.
Expectations for next weekend’s meeting should be minimal, but we should also expect President Trump to try to take credit for what he will describe, if anything happens at all, as a terrific breakthrough, one better than any president has ever previously achieved in the Balkans (never mind the two wars brought to an end during Bill Clinton’s presidency). Exaggerated bluster is Trumps only real talent. It hasn’t been working well lately, because Covid-19, North Korean, Iran, Venezuela, China, and even Russia haven’t been yielding to Trump’s reality show threats. Maybe he’ll have better luck with Presidents Thaci and Vucic, but I doubt it. They both know he won’t deliver on any overblown economic packages and are likely, and wisely, looking past him to the day President Biden takes office.
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Stevenson’s army, June 22
– While the national security adviser writes in WSJ that “no formal announcement has been made,” he then explains that US troops will leave Germany and why.
-NYT explains the lapses in vetting that allowed the Saudi pilot to kill in Pensacola.
— NYT also explains how Amb. Grenell seized control of Kosovo policy.
-Bolton blames many policies on “the split between Trump and Trump.”
–Bolton has more harsh words in ABC interview. Transcript here.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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What can Grenell produce?
I’ve done three interviews in the last week on the Serbia/Kosovo talks to be held in Washington next weekend. Here they are:
Fitim Gashi (Koha Ditore)
Q: President Trump’s envoy for Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, Richard Grenell, has reignited the engines to bring the parties back to the negotiating table. He received confirmation from governments in Pristina and Belgrade that they will respond the invitation for a meeting in Washington on June 27. How do you comment on this?
A: It’s a bad idea whose time has come. No one should be negotiating anything important with an American Administration that could lose power in less than 5 months.
Q: The meeting in Washington, came at a time when EU Commissioner Miroslav Lajcak visited Pristina and Belgrade with the aim of setting future dates of the dialogue? Do you see EU-US conflict of competence in terms of dialogue?
A: Yes. The US is aiming to upstage the EU. This is juvenile, but so is President Trump.
Q: The lack of coordination EU-US, how much harms the process and the quality of potential agreement?
A: Lack of EU-US common purpose is bad: the US needs EU leverage to get good things done in the Balkans, and the EU needs US prestige with both Belgrade and Pristina. Together they can achieve something good. Separately they can do far less and may cause serious harm.
Q: Regarding EU-US division, how much has contributed developments within Kosovo, where we have President Thaci contesting the mediating role of Lajcak?
A: The President is siding with Grenell against Lajcak, who will have to try to deal with Prime Minister Hoti. Hoti has stated a clear and compelling position on negotiations with Belgrade, but his government is weak and President Thaci seems uninterested in what it says and wants.
Q: Do you see attempt to rush for an agreement between Kosovo and Serbia, before the US presidential election?
A: Yes. Grenell is trying to deliver a diplomatic show-piece for Trump before November 3.
Q: What is the risk of signing an agreement that does not contribute to long-term stability in the region? Significant: despite their denials, the Americans have opened the door Belgrade’s partition ideas, which would be bad not only for the region but also for many other places, especially Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova. Only Presidents Putin and Vucic could be happy with partition.
Q: What compromises should make both sides, and what must be done if there is an attempt to reach an agreement that implies border changes?
A: I can’t decide what compromises they should make, but there is lots to do in removing trade barriers, opening direct contacts between the two armies, encouraging people-to-people contacts, implementing the existing “technical” agreements, ensuring protection of property rights in both countries, and ensuring that Albanians in Serbia and Serbs in Kosovo have comparable rights and status.
Q: Will Kosovo be able to reject a bad agreement, if it is signed in Washington?
A: The government, parliament, and people of Kosovo have all made clear their opposition to partition. But if the two Presidents were to agree to it, people in both northern Kosovo and southern Serbia would start moving, creating facts on the ground that would be hard to reverse. The results will be disastrous for human rights and a triumph for ethnic nationalist ideology.
Q: Mr. Grenell on several occasions has mentioned the intention for Kosovo and Serbia to reach a peace agreement through useful economic measures. Can this be done?
A: Economic measures can help to pave the way. They are the most important thing to do now. But Grenell has talked he talk. He hasn’t walked the walk.
Q: Can all the open problems between Kosovo and Serbia be solved, which would lead to mutual recognition?
A: Yes, eventually, but I doubt it at present. President Vucic seems uninterested in that proposition, unless and until he gets territory.
Q: Do you expect Russia to be involved in the process?
A: The Russians don’t have to be involved in a partition process, because it will fulfill their dreams without any effort on their part. Eventually, they will need to be on board with Kosovo membership in the UN.
Q: What will happen to the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue if Russia is included, can this process it end up in Security Council of UN?
A: The Security Council will have to approve Kosovo membership in the UN, without a veto from Russia or China. Putin will demand a high price for that: likely US recognition of the “independence” of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as well as Russian annexation of Crimea. I doubt the Americans, even under Trump, will agree to even the first half of that, but Trump is unreliable and volatile. You never know, because he understands little and cares less.
Besnik Velija (Gazeta Express)
Q: In yesterday’s interview for our newspaper, Grenell said that the meeting in Washington will be only for economic issues. As he declared, the Phase II (political one) belong to Europe. What are your expectations for such a meeting in the White House and do you really believe that Kosovo and Serbia will travel to Washington to discuss economic issues?
A: I’ll be happy to see the Washington meeting focus on economic issues, including non-tariff trade barriers as well as unimplemented “technical” agreements between Belgrade and Pristina. You’ll have to ask the Presidents whether they are traveling for that purpose. Grenell says they are.
Q: Traveling to Washington, Serbia and Kosovo have been forced to give up pure political issues such are the derecognition campaign and seeking membership in international organizations. Why would this be necessary, if only economics will be discussed on the White House?
A: The suspension of the derecognition campaign and seeking membership in international organizations are confidence-building measures of little consequence, since they were initially announced to last only until the meeting. I am not convinced extending them would be a good idea. If Serbia wants to demonstrate that it is a friendly neighbor, it should be sponsoring Kosovo for membership in international organizations.
Added to this, Vucic one day before traveling to White House will meet Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
Q: Does this mosaic of previous meetings and events deny Grenell’s declarations for an “Economic Meeting” in the White House?
Q: You’ll have to ask President Vucic. He is certainly making it clear that he will not abandon his coziness with Putin in favor of a Western alignment. Playing Moscow against the West is classic non-aligned hedging behavior that will prevent Serbian membership in the EU.
Q: One last question about land-swap. Richard Grenell on his recent interview for FOX News declared that territorial details were policy of John Bolton, trying to create a gap between Trump and such an idea. Do you see this as a strategic election campaign move from the Trump side?
A: I do think Grenell may have realized that partition was a bad idea, which would be good if true. But truthfulness is not a value of this Administration. We’ll have to wait and see what the Washington meeting produces.
Veljko Nestorović (Dnevne novine):
Q: What do you expect to be the topic of conversation, economics as announced by Grenell or something else?
A: We’ll have to wait and see. I’ll be glad if they discuss economic issues like elimination of non-tariff trade barriers and implementation of the technical agreements already reached between Pristina and Belgrade.
Q: Richard Grenell said that the idea of correcting the border was John Bolton and not president Trump. Your comment?
A: If this is an effort to end the talk of border changes, my compliments to Mr. Grenell for recognizing partition as a bad idea. But this Administration is not known for its truthfulness. We’ll have to wait and see what happens.
Q: Can an agreement between Belgrade and Pristina follow by the end of this year?
A: Sure, you can have all sorts of agreements between Belgrade and Pristina before the US election, which is what Grenell wants. But there is unlikely to be an agreement on mutual recognition and entry into the UN, which are the big issues.
Q: What if Trump loses the election, does that change the US approach to the Kosovo problem?
A: Yes. Mr. Biden, whom I have testified in front of a number of times, will be a committed opponent of any border changes to accommodate ethnic differences in the Balkans and elsewhere. He will be a far stronger supporter of Kosovo sovereignty and territorial integrity than Mr. Trump has been, and he will vigorously support Serbia’s candidacy for EU accession as well as close US cooperation with the EU in the Balkans and elsewhere.
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There is more than one bad idea
The Trump Administration is bringing Kosovo and Serbia Presidents Thaci and Vucic to Washington June 27, in an effort to hammer out some sort of agreement the American President can boast about at a Rose Garden ceremony before the November 3 election. Speculation about the substance has focused on the apparent willingness of both Vucic and Thaci to consider land/people swaps on an ethnic basis: Serbs in northern Kosovo would be traded to Serbia in exchange for Albanians in southern Serbia.
This is a spectacularly bad idea, against which I and others have argued vigorously, as it would destabilize the Balkans as well as Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. Only Vladimir Putin could like it. Maybe Trump’s special envoy Richard Grenell has been listening, as he has now let it be known that his Washington conclave will focus on economic agreements while the more sensitive political issues will be settled in talks the European Union hosts.
If we accept this division of labor at face value, it is certainly odd: economics is the specialty of the EU. The US–not the EU–will have to deal with Russia on the bigger political issues like diplomatic recognition and UN membership. But I trust the EU a whole lot more to oppose partition of the two countries (which is what a land/people swap amounts to), as Germany is solidly against it and the five countries within the EU that do not recognize Kosovo also have good reasons to oppose partition, along with several other EU members.
It is of course possible that Grenell is prevaricating. The Trump Administration tells more lies in a day than most recent American administrations tell in a year. Consistency is to Trump and Grenell “the hobgoblin of small minds.” I’m afraid they agree with the American poet Ralph Waldo Emerson: “With consistency a great soul has simply nothing to do.” If it is partition they really want, they won’t let their prior statements interfere.
Fortunately, in both Serbia and Kosovo the idea of a land/people swap is getting a Bronx cheer. President Vucic still wants it, and after Sunday’s parliamentary election he might have the kind of super majority in parliament that would go along. But it is doubtful that he can get it approved in a constitutional referendum, which would require not only 50% to agree but 50% of registered voters to vote. The second part of the double majority would be particularly difficult. In Kosovo, Prime Minister Hoti has declared his opposition, and there is nothing like a 2/3 majority in parliament that would approve it, never mind 50% of the population.
Of course that doesn’t mean they won’t try it anyway. Once written down with a map that shows on which side of a new border Albanians should be and on which side Serbs should be, the ethnic cleansing and self-cleansing will start, including pressure to move to Kosovo on Albanians all over Serbia and pressure on Serbs all over Kosovo to move to Serbia. This would also ignite an independence move in the Serb half of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and possibly a similar move by Albanians in Macedonia. The chaos would destroy two landmark Clinton achievements: peace in Bosnia and Kosovo.
But let’s assume Grenell is being honest. There are certainly things that need doing on the economic front. He has already supposedly negotiated agreements on air and rail travel between Kosovo and Serbia, but there is no visible sign of implementation. Getting that moving would be a good idea. The Serbian and Kosovo chambers of commerce have a good understanding of the non-tariff trade barriers on both sides of the border. Removing those would help to improve economic conditions in both countries and attract international investment, as would implementation of the many “technical” agreements already negotiated between Pristina and Belgrade.
So there are lots of good things Grenell can do, if he focuses as declared on the economic issues. But there are also bad ideas other than the land/people swaps. One thing on which Pristina and Belgrade seem fully agreed is amnesty for their respective bigwig war criminals. De facto that already exists for Serb commanders in Serbia and Albanian commanders in Kosovo. Neither country seems inclined to punish its war criminals any more than Donald Trump wants to see American war criminals punished. Amnesty for war crimes and crimes against humanity is not permitted under international law, but that is just one more norm Trump might like to puncture. It would be truly ugly, but not unthinkable, if renewed American engagement in the Balkans came in the form of letting mass murderers go free.
There is more than one bad idea in the Balkans, and fending them off requires constant vigilance.
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