Tag: Balkans
Bidening their time
Ric Grenell’s today announced Belgrade/Pristina talks in Washington June 27:
Great news! I have received the commitment from the governments of Kosovo and Serbia to temporarily pause the derecognition campaign and the seeking of international memberships in order to meet in Washington, DC at the White House on June 27 for Dialogue discussions. (1/2)
If either side is unsatisfied with the June 27 discussions then they will go back to the status quo after they leave Washington. As we have consistently said, we must first make progress on growing the economies. This is the focus. I look forward to these discussions. (2/2)
If in fact Grenell sticks with mutually beneficial economic measures, I’m fine with this. But Jasmin Mujatovic put it sonorously when he tweeted:
Still, most likely scenario is just a wet-fart failure. Neither Trump nor Grenell have any kind of diplomatic credibility or acumen, it’s an elxn yr in the U.S. & Trump is in dire straits, Kosovo politics are in chaos – hard to see these characters delivering on a real deal.
By which I imagine he means a real deal on key political issues like recognition, exchange of ambassadors, and UN membership. And of course, partition, which the new Kosovo Prime Minister has ruled out of bounds but President Vucic still salivates for.
The suspension of the Serbian de-recognition campaign in exchange for Kosovo’s seeking membership in international organizations is a nothing burger with a tilt towards Belgrade. Suspension of the de-recognition campaign doesn’t mean much if Kosovo is not seeking international memberships, and both are only good to June 27 unless extended.
Notably absent is any European role. This all but guarantees failure, since both Kosovo and Serbia want European goodies for good outcomes. Grenell has terrible relations with the Europeans in general and the Germans in particular. The Americans don’t have much more than a Rose Garden ceremony in the middle of a pandemic with a failed and unpopular US president to offer.
Both Pristina and Belgrade should be wondering whether it would be better to bide their time for Biden, whose odds are looking good, including in swing states (but caveat emptor: there are no guarantees in American elections). A White House ceremony could look much better in 4.5 months.
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Bravo
Kosovo Prime Minister Hoti today presented his plans for dialogue with Belgrade at the Academy of Arts and Sciences in Pristina. I’ve been skeptical about the strength of his government due to its narrow majority and the process that led to its formation. But I’m prepared to welcome warmly what he said today:
The first principle is that the territorial integrity of the Republic of Kosovo is non-negotiable. The second principle is that the constitutional and state organization of Kosovo is non-negotiable. The third principle is that the agreement to be reached should comply with the Constitution of the Republic of Kosovo….The dialogue process is aimed at mutual recognition…any agreement not ensuring the mutual recognition is non-sense. Not provisional mutual recognition resembling the models of East Germany and West Germany or other international models mentioned in various roundtables, but mutual recognition that immediately provides us a seat in UN and also recognition from five EU countries that have not recognized Kosovo yet.
The new prime minister also commented on the process, in particular who will lead the dialogue on behalf of Kosovo.
Dialogue will be chaired by the Prime Minister of the country. There have been various discussions in the recent weeks and months. I will not compete with other persons responsible at the institutional level, because my constitutional competencies are clear as to all issues, including the dialogue process, but in particular my competencies in the dialogue process have been confirmed in the judgment of the Constitutional Court.
The previous prime minister had wrestled with President Thaci on the issue of who would lead the dialogue, so this is a welcome clarification, assuming the President agrees.
The questions are whether Thaci will really step back from his long engagement with President Vucic in the dialogue, which has been mostly unproductive since 2013, and whether an agreement along the lines Hoti outlined is possible.
The proof will be in the pudding, but it is encouraging that Hoti is reaching out to political parties that are not part of his coalition as well as to civil society. With a margin of just one vote in parliament, he will need support from more or less an additional 20 parliamentarians to ensure 2/3 support of whatever comes out of the talks with Belgrade. That is the kind of margin he will need, along with support from a similar percentage of the population.
On the substance of an agreement with Belgrade, I am not seeing in President Vucic’s current stance any reason for hope. He told RFE/RL recently:
…if it’s just – let’s Serbs recognize the independence of Kosovo, let’s finish with that story, it will certainly not go that way.
But he is in a pre-electoral period. Things may change after the June 21 parliamentary election, though his Russian and Chinese friends will try to stiffen his resolve against recognizing Kosovo, each for their own reasons.
In the end, the biggest obstacle to agreement may be relations between the United States and the European Union. They are in a tug-of-war over which should convene the dialogue. The right solution is for them to do it as a cooperative enterprise, but the American negotiator is a notorious critic of the EU in general and Germany in particular while the Europeans have fielded two negotiators from countries that don’t recognize Kosovo. It doesn’t on the face of it look like a winning combination, but maybe President Trump’s hope for a Rose Garden ceremony before the November 3 American election will generate some momentum.
There is always the possibility of an agreement to agree in the future–something to give Trump bragging rights, which is all he really wants. That could be dressed up with a few economic bells and whistles as well an agreement not to prosecute war crimes–which is something on which Belgrade and Pristina sadly seem to agree. The Rose Garden has been used for unworthy announcements, including in the recent past.
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Ill-fated
As parliament approved a new Kosovo government today, here are a few thoughts on its fate. It will be led by the LDK and command a narrow majority based on several minority parties as well as several smaller parties that have been in the opposition during the short life of the VV/LDK coalition.
The main purposes of this government are necessarily
- Get the country as safely as possible through the Covid-19 epidemic;
- Deal with the negative economic fallout;
- Respond to the Americans and Europeans, who are demanding re-initiation of the stalled dialogue with Belgrade.
This is a formidable agenda, though Kosovo appears to have escaped the worst of Covid-19. Even a strong, single-party, majority government (with the required minority participation) would have a difficult time meeting the requirements. A multi-party coalition with a thin majority led by the second-place* finisher in the last election is going to have a much harder time. VV (Self-Determination) in opposition will redouble the difficulties again, both in parliament and in the streets.
What this does is to empower the President relative to the government. His machinations with the Americans led to the vote of no-confidence in Albin Kurti’s short-lived rule. The President will now claim the lead role in the talks with Belgrade that Kurti tried to deny him–Thaci surely has no interest in leading on Covid-19 or the economy. The LDK will have promised they will not contest his leadership in the talks with Belgrade, as the price of their getting the prime ministry. The Americans will support him, because they have him over a barrel and willing to do just about anything to avoid indictment by the Special Tribunal in The Hague. Never mind that both the Constitutional Court and the parliament have said that talks with Belgrade should be the responsibility of the government, not the President.
Richard Grenell, the US envoy for the Serbia/Kosovo talks, claims he is only interested in improving economic relations between Belgrade and Pristina, not land swaps as I and others have claimed. That is not a credible smokescreen. Already slated for a role in the campaign, he wants to deliver a Rose Garden ceremony for President Trump in the runup to America’s November 3 election. No economic agreement would make the grade. He needs a land swap not only for its own sake, as it reaffirms the ethnic nationalist principles of the Trump Administration, but also because he thinks it can be sold as a big plus for peace and stability in the Balkans, settling an issue neither Clinton could resolve.
That is not true: it will settle nothing. A land swap will sooner or later result in instability in Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and possibly Macedonia. It will also strengthen Russian President Putin’s hand in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. But whatever is agreed in the Rose Garden need not last long–just until November 3. The civil aviation agreement Grenell claims to have negotiated has already evaporated, without anyone noticing. The likelihood that neither the Serbian nor the Kosovo parliament will approve a land swap, or that it will be accepted in referenda in either country, won’t matter after the US election. The damage will have been done: wherever the new borders are to be drawn, people will be moving–some voluntarily and some involuntarily–to the “right” side for their own ethnic group. Those who don’t move will be chased out.
So I see this new government–with apologies to Avdullah Hoti–as ill-fated. It will try to open the way to a deal that Kosovans, Americans, and Europeans will regret. The only winners will be Putin and his minions, as well as Serbian President Vucic. By now, even President Thaci should be having his doubts.
Here is the interview I did yesterday with RTK, before parliament approved the new government:
*This originally read “third”-place finisher. That was wrong. LDK came in second. My error. Always check should be my motto!
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Kosovo’s decisive summer
These were my remarks to a Columbia University panel on “The Future of Kosovo” held via Zoom today.
Let me start by saying how much I appreciate David Phillips having put this panel together. It isn’t easy to wrangle such illustrious participants, even to a remote meeting. Thank you, David.
My job today is to try to frame the issues in a broader context and from a Washington perspective.
The key thing to understand is that the Americans have abandoned their well-established policy on the Balkans and on Kosovo in particular.
That well-established Balkans policy, part of the broader 1990s effort to establish “Europe whole and free,” had three pillars:
• Protection of Kosovo’s population and sympathy for Kosovo’s independence aspirations as well as commitment to Bosnian sovereignty.
• Support for liberal democracy throughout the Balkans.
• Commitment to acting in tandem with the Europeans, especially with Germany and the United Kingdom.
My message is just this: things have changed. The Trump Administration has equivocated on all three of these pillars. Let me take them in reverse order.
I see no real effort in this Administration to cooperate with Europe. It has put the Kosovo/Serbia dialogue in the hands of an American Ambassador in Berlin who has offended the German government and spoken against the EU. Professional diplomats who know the Balkans well are now sidelined.
Washington now favors border changes to accommodate ethnic differences, even though they would signify inability to treat all people equally, which is the liberal democratic ideal. Regrettably, Europe’s High Representative Borell has gone along, as did his predecessor.
Finally, it is all too clear that Belgrade, not Sarajevo or Pristina, is today Washington’s preferred Balkan partner.
These changes signify a major shift in U.S. policy. How did it happen?
The Trump Administration is ethnic nationalist. It sympathizes when it hears from Serbia’s government and lobbyists that Serbs should govern Serbs and Albanians should govern Albanians. President Trump is trying to appeal almost exclusively to whites and to limit minority voting. Why wouldn’t it listen to Balkan ethnic nationalists?
Moreover, Republicans know that Serb Americans in a potential swing state like Ohio are an electoral bonanza far more valuable than the Albanian Americans in New York, which is a lock for the Democrats.
The Trump Administration has failed so far in all its major foreign policy initiatives. Ric Grenell is trying to give the President a good headline before November 3. All the better if it is one that kills two Clinton achievements, Bosnia and Kosovo.
So U.S. government support for Kosovo’s aspirations has weakened: you see it in the cut off of funding and the threat to withdraw U.S. troops. These are irresponsible moves.
You see the weakening of U.S. support also in the lack of concern in the Administration about the impact of a Kosovo land swap on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
So, you may ask, what is to be done? I’ll leave it to the panel participants to address the issues. My views on some of them are well-known: I support reciprocity between Pristina and Belgrade, I oppose partition, and I think a deal on tariffs and non-tariff barriers is doable.
Three further options for Kosovo need to be considered. I’ll call them the 3Ds:
• Diversify
• Deter
• Delay
Let me take each of these in turn.
How can Kosovo diversify its support beyond the U.S.? Germany first and foremost: Kosovo needs to ensure that opposition to land swaps is sustained not only in the Chancellor’s office but also in the Bundestag. Berlin must continue to make it clear that it will not accept changes in borders to accommodate ethnic differences. It needs to reign in Borrell.
Switzerland, the UK, and Ukraine are other countries that have their own powerful reasons for opposing land swaps. Even for non-recognizing Spain, the idea should be anathema.
How can Kosovo deter land swaps? The key here is reciprocity.
In all future discussions, Kosovo should seek the equivalent of whatever Serbia seeks: the same acreage, the same powers for an Albanian municipal association in Serbia as for a Serb one in Kosovo, the same representation in Belgrade for Albanians that Serbia has in Pristina, equivalent removal of non-tariff barriers in exchange for removal of tariffs.
And above all, mutual recognition and exchange of ambassadorial-level representatives, with an unequivocal and verifiable commitment not to block Kosovo entry into the UN or other international organizations.
Sadly, deterrence is unlikely to work perfectly, because of the strong American lean towards Belgrade. Delay is also vital.
Vucic has made it clear he will wait until after the Serbian election and government formation in late June for any deal with Pristina. The Trump Administration will then press for land swaps before the fall. So July and August, when Europe is asleep, may be crucial months.
A Kosovo Constitutional Court decision to disallow formation of a new government without new elections could cause a further, welcome delay.
By October 1, Kosovo will be safe from partition if it hasn’t been done yet.
What, you will ask, about the American elections?
If I were a Kosovo patriot, I wouldn’t bank on a Biden victory in November, but I would hope for one. Joe Biden knows the Balkans well and would return to the well-established policy of support for Kosovo and Bosnia and cooperation with Europe. A Biden Administration should close the door on land swaps, loudly.
If Trump wins a second term, the electoral pressure for a quick deal will fade but I would still expect Grenell and others to pursue land swaps, if only to feather their nests for their next jobs.
And the President himself will feel completely uninhibited: expect wild moves, not only in the Balkans.
So the next few months are vital for Kosovo’s future. I am hoping to hear from the other panelists how they think its statehood, territorial integrity, and sovereignty can be ensured.
P.S. Here is the full video of the Columbia event:
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Serbia should align
A group of people described to me as “prominent individuals from all walks of life in Serbia” have issued an appeal in the runup to the (remote) EU/Western Balkans Summit meeting on Wednesday:
The tone is muted, but the overall message is clear: democracy is in danger in Serbia, due in part but not only to executive action in response to the Covid-19 epidemic.
In fact democracy was at risk in Serbia well before this year. President Vucic had already accumulated vast power, including over the media and judiciary as well as uncontested control of the executive branch. There has been no effective opposition in parliament for years. Protesters against his rule came from all ends of the political spectrum, liberal and ultra-nationalist, but they had little impact. Any hope they had of winning in elections evaporated when the epidemic caused the polling to be postponed.
As in so many other countries, including my own, the epidemic has aggravated tendencies that already existed in Serbia. In mid-March, President Vucic had harsh words for the lack of EU solidarity with his country and praise for the Chinese, who have been investing more in Serbia than in the rest of Balkans. This was an intensification of his effort to return Serbia from the nominally pro-Western stance he adopted in the last Serbian presidential election in 2017 to a “non-aligned” one in keeping with the Socialist Yugoslav tradition. He had already balanced Serbia’s cooperation with NATO by leaning heavily in Russia’s direction, including by procuring its military equipment and refusing to implement EU-levied (Ukraine-related) sanctions.
Much of the rest of the Western Balkans is choosing an unequivocally Western path for its economic and political development, even if performance often falls short. Bosnia is the exception, but only because its Serb-run Republika Srpska constrains the country from making a serious run at NATO. Montenegro is still struggling with an anti-independence, anti-NATO opposition, but it has joined NATO and its government is clear about its goal of aligning economically and politically with Europe. The same is true in North Macedonia, which likewise has joined NATO after settling its “name” issue with Greece. Kosovo has always been clear about its pro-NATO, pro-EU ambitions, despite the obvious shortfalls in its performance.
Serbia is different for several reasons. The Orthodox connection is stronger than in the other countries of the Balkans, Russophilia and ethnic nationalism are dominant sentiments in the still unreconstructed right wing of its politics, and Belgrade is the successor state to Socialist Yugoslavia in much more than the legal sense. Some Serbs are nostalgic for the unaligned Yugoslav role, which they believe brought goodies from both East and West. Others just like the familiarity of the Slav-dominated East.
No one should begrudge Serbia the benefits of Russian and Chinese investment. Belgrade needs every dinar it can get for its moribund economy. Germany does a lot of business with Russia too, but has nevertheless remained a leader in the liberal democratic world.
But it is high time the EU makes clear that the path to accession will not be open unless Serbia aligns itself economically and politically with Western standards, however much it enjoys Russian and Chinese cash. It is far from that ideal today. That is the significance of the pre-Summit appeal. Brussels and the EU national capitals need to send a strong message to Serbia: you are not getting into our club unless you meet entry requirements, in particular the Copenhagen criteria:
Membership requires that candidate country has achieved stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights, respect for and protection of minorities, the existence of a functioning market economy as well as the capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union. Membership presupposes the candidate’s ability to take on the obligations of membership including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union.
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/enlargement/ec/cop_en.htm
Sad to say, the Europeans can expect no support for now from the US in the effort to turn Serbia into a viable accession candidate. Washington is hostile to the EU, uninterested in promoting democracy except in adversary states, and cares only about quid pro quo rather than international norms or maintaining alliance relationships.
So yes, the EU/Western Balkans Summit should send a message not only about solidarity in the face of Covid-19, but also about maintaining European standards and requiring adherence to them by countries that seek membership. An anocratic Serbia is not one that can accede to the EU. Vucic should be told to align, or find Serbia lagging in the regatta for EU membership.
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The politics of faith
Ambassador Miodrag Vlahovic* writes:
The new Law on Religious and Freedoms of Opinion was adopted by the Montenegrin Parliament in December 2019, after almost five years of continuous talks and consultation between Government of Montenegro (GoM) and all religious communities in our country. Unfortunately, the Serbian Orthodox Church (Metropolitan of Cetinje) repeatedly refused to take part in this process, claiming that Montenegro and its legal institutions have no right to legislate on religion.
The Venice Commission of the Council of Europe, which is responsible for reviewing the constitutional legislation of member states, thoroughly analyzed the draft Law, and confirmed that the provisions fully correspond and comply with the highest European criteria and standards, in addition to suggesting some amendments. Two of the Commission’s members dissented – the representative of Bosnia, from Banja Luka, abstained, and the representative of Serbia voted against.
The Government and Parliament of Montenegro adopted all the non-binding expert suggestions, with one exception – obligatory religious education in schools, inappropriate for our country’s multicultural and multi religious traditions. The goal was to replace the previous out-dated and inappropriate Tito-era regulations, in order to provide for equal legal status for all religious communities and for their members and followers (Orthodox Christian, Muslim, Catholic, Jewish and others), as well as for non-religious people.
In response, the Serbian Orthodox Church, both in Montenegro as well as its leadership and clergy in Serbia, has started a destructive political campaign, fully backed by the most radical national-chauvinist political parties, media and “intellectual” circles in both countries. That campaign has all the characteristics and narrative that dominated political and public life in ex-Yugoslavia in the early 1990’s and which promoted, provoked and, afterwards, tried to justify the tragic Yugoslav wars and to minimize or deny the crimes and atrocities committed.
The core of the dispute with Serbian church is related to three articles of the Law, which stipulate that all the property which was for centuries Montenegrin state property – and especially prior to 1918, when Montenegro was brutally, illegally and unconstitutionally annexed by Serbia – shall be re-registered as state property of Montenegro. Full legal procedure and protection are provided for, including the possibility to appeal to the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg.
No other religious community in Montenegro had any substantial objection or opposition to the Law; they fully support equal and balanced treatment for all.
The Law also requires mandatory registration of religious communities with the Montenegrin authorities, a formality that the Serbian church repeatedly and vehemently rejects, claiming that the Serbian church in Montenegro cannot be subjected to Montenegrin law. The Serbian church is duly registered in all other countries, including Serbia itself, their numerous European dioceses, and those in the US, as well as in Argentina and in Australia, without any objection. In addition, the Serbian church does not want to pay taxes for its diversified and growing business activities in Montenegro.
For almost two months prior to coronavirus shutdown, the Serbian church organized so-called religious processions, with participation of clergy from other countries.
Montenegro remains fully committed, as a member of NATO and as an aspirant for EU membership, to continuing its democratic and overall development, based on its historic traditions and values. Our positive and successful policies in recent history, including the preparation and organization of the peaceful and democratic referendum on independence in May 2006, were based on our functioning multi-ethnic and multi-religious governments. This was true throughout the Yugoslav wars.
These are the values and principles we shall defend, maintain and further promote. We are absolutely committed and ready to resolve any issue related to the implementation of the new Law on Religious Freedoms though negotiations and with mutual respect and correctness, fully protecting and securing the secular nature of Montenegrin state structures and on the basis of our multicultural, multiethnic and multi-religious society.
Just before the global breakout of the virus, the GoM and the Metropolitan of Cetinje agreed to start negotiations concerning the new law. The position of the Church is that three articles related to property issues should be abolished. The position of GoM is that only the implementation of the Law should be discussed. That deadlock was temporarily put aside. Post-virus Montenegro will have to return to these issues.
*Montenegrin ambassador to the Holy See and a former foreign minister of Montenegro, but the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the official Montenegrin positions.
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