Tag: Balkans

Europeanization hasn’t failed

Balkan Insight this morning published my piece taking issue with colleagues who have termed Europeanization failed in the Balkans. I don’t think it has succeeded, but it needs time, the development of political alternatives, and a Europe that makes the prospect of accession more palpable than it is today. Progress should be measured not from where the Balkans are headed, but from where the region started: in war, ethnic cleansing, and genocide.

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Kosovo’s contradictions

I’ve been slow to write about my stay week before last in Pristina, where I was teaching at the American University of Kosovo and talking with both old friends and new. Caveat emptor: they are overwhelmingly middle class folks in or near Pristina who are doing much better than average.

My impressions are contradictory. Here are some of the them:

  1. Pristina is a far more cheerful place than once it was, but the complaints are loud and long.

No one seems to think the city is improving, but the improvements are dramatic: the Mother Teresa Boulevard pedestrian zone is crowded day and night, mainly with young people and children. The restaurants and cafes have multiplied many times over the past twenty years. The cafes are jammed, the restaurants less so. New hotels are popping up here and there, including a Marriott on its way. The CityInn and its restaurant, where we stayed, were first-rate. Traffic often moves slowly, but Kosovar drivers are remarkably indulgent of pedestrians, at least those who cross on the zebra stripes, and respectful of the traffic signals. Neither honking nor screeching brakes are common. The airport, a chaotic nightmare for years after the war, is a model of order and decorum both arriving and departing.

2. The country is overwhelmingly Muslim, but few women “cover” and few men go to mosque.

Some Kosovars are undoubtedly more religious than once they were, especially in the countryside. It would be surprising if the end of Communist and Serbian repression of Islam did not lead to more overt signs of religiosity. Perhaps one in a hundred women on the street in Pristina covers her hair, many still wearing tight jeans. Far fewer wear burqas. The Saudis and especially the Turks have been paying to rehabilitate mosques, and one person, horrified, showed me a photograph of a couple of dozen men blocking a (small) street during Friday prayers. Young people out for the evening circulate mostly in single-gender groups, not mixed male and female. Still, Riyadh and Ankara must be disappointed in the returns on their religious investments, at least in Pristina.

3. Many people think the country is headed in the wrong direction, even if the economy is thriving relative to the rest of the Balkans.

Kosovo’s economy has grown every year since 2003, and the entrepreneurs I spoke with are pleased with how things are going, but recent NDI polling suggests a plurality of both Albanians and Serbs are disappointed. The focus of their disillusion is the government: it has failed to convince a large slice of the population that the institutions will treat them fairly, especially when it comes to jobs. Everyone complains about corruption, but somehow the same political parties and personalities keep winning elections. Patronage is part of the answer: the incumbents always seem to be able to offer employment and pensions. Corruption is a big issue for everyone I spoke with, but Kosovars tend to interpret prosecutions, which are increasing, as a sign of how bad things are rather than how the courts are beginning to do their job.

4. Kosovars got their own state, but they don’t all want to keep it.

Every time I visit Kosovo, I meet people who tell me they would give up independence and their own state for union with Albania. They hold that view despite the miserable performance of the Albanian politicians: political Tirana is far more conflictual than political Pristina. Governance there is pretty bad. But for some people ethnic solidarity is more important. “We are the same people” they declare, despite the history of differences. Albania during the Cold War was an isolated and absolute dictatorship allied with Communist China while Kosovo enjoyed relative autonomy in non-aligned Yugoslavia. The border between the two was a hard one, both politically and topographically. Kosovo’s links to Europe are mainly to Germany and Switzerland while Albania’s are more towards Italy. The Serb presence in Kosovo is also a key distinguishing characteristic. Without it, Kosovo would look much more like the eastern province of Albania than a distinct polity worthy of its own state. But you can’t expect someone who wants his capital in Tirana to worry much about that.

5. The environment is polluted, but nature is beautiful.

The big problem is air pollution. Pristina is among the worst cities in Europe to breathe in. But wherever the bulldozers have not yet arrived, the natural environment is appealing and sometimes spectacular. We drove from sleepy Dragas north through bustling Djakovica/Djakova to Decan/Decani, where the Serb monastery and church look out towards the mountainous route to Montenegro. I’ve been into the mountains around the Brezovica area as well. Very nice. We unfortunately didn’t make it to the Rugova Valley, which I gather is also attractive. Just outside Pristina is the huge Germia park, with its gargantuan swimming pool, and even the parks inside the city are improving.

6. The place is peaceful, but not reconciled.

One Kosovo politician told me Albanians and Serbs are no longer prepared to kill each other, almost no matter what. The fever has passed, he suggested. But there are still resentments and distrust. Little has been done to reconcile: Serbia has not apologized for its homicidal repression and Kosovars are still treating all their fighters as heroes, even though they are aware that some killed innocent Albanians and Serbs, including after the war. The peace is personal more than political. While I understand domestic violence is a serious problem in Kosovo, during a week of walking many miles in its streets and parks, I never heard a voice raised in anger, even addressed to a recalcitrant child. At least in public, where evereyone seems to know everyone else’s cousin, Kosovars seem determined to keep the peace.

7. It’s stable, even if the Prime Minister had to go to The Hague.

Called to face the Special Tribunal at The Hague charged with investigating crimes in Kosovo, Prime Minister Haradinaj resigned, a couple of days after he and I had a chat about the dialogue with Belgrade and the tariffs he had imposed on Serbian goods, in retaliation for Serbia’s successful campaign against acceptance of Kosovo in international organizations (most notably UNESCO and Interpol). His two previous war crimes indictments, by the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia, caused unrest in Kosovo. This time around things have been calm. Elections are expected in September or maybe October. Ramush likely believes the court’s actions will redound to his eventual political benefit, as did the previous indictments. That has been true throughout the Balkans: those pursued by the courts have been greeted by their ethnic compatriots as heroes, not villains.

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Calm in Pristina

I’ve been in Pristina all week, where yesterday Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj resigned. A Special Tribunal concerned with crimes committed after its 1998-99 war has summoned him to The Hague. It is not yet known whether he is an indictee or a witness. He has been tried twice before at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia and found not guilty.

I talked with the Prime Minister Wednesday. He gave no hint of what was coming and likely didn’t know.

It’s a fraught time here. Tariffs Ramush levied on Serbian imports have stalled a European Union dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina that aimed to resolve the many issues remaining a generation after Slobodan Milosevic expelled half of Kosovo’s Albanian population but yielded after a 78-day NATO bombing campaign to UN administration of the Serbian-ruled province. Kosovo is now a parliamentary democracy–not yet recognized as sovereign by some–that requires elections within 45 days of resignation of the prime minister. The opposition, which had aimed for elections in October, is unlikely to be ready for them by the beginning of September.

Some will wonder whether the United States is behind the judicial maneuver that caused Ramush to resign. The Special Court is constituted under Kosovo law, but manned by mostly Europeans with an American chief prosecutor, one appointed by the Trump Administration. You don’t even have to be a practiced conspiracy theorist to imagine that the Americans, who were upset with Ramush’s tariffs and opposition to an ethnically based land swap deal with Belgrade, decided to get rid of him.

If so, they’ve made a big mistake. Ramush’s previous two court battles in The Hague did nothing but increase his popularity here. The tariffs and opposition to the land swap deal are popular here. Ramush’s summons to The Hague is far more likely to strengthen his political support than diminish it.

But it may well be that the court, acting on its own volition, thinks it has reason to question Ramush or even indict him. We just don’t know. Certainly Serbs and Albanians were murdered after the war; most people here think the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) of which Ramush was then a regional commander was in part responsible. I would favor holding the guilty accountable for those crimes. But it would be entirely premature to judge who.

So far, the popular reaction to Ramush’s resignation is calm. We attended the ongoing Pristina Film Festival last night, across from the Prime Minister’s office. A street basketball tournament occupied the space between the two. Families strolled happily in Mother Teresa Boulevard. Of course all that could change, but for the moment people seem more interested in enjoying the relatively cool, clear weather than worrying about what has happened to their prime minister.

Kosovo President Thaci, also a former KLA cadre, will need now to oversee the formation of some sort of caretaker government. That itself will be difficult as Ramush had a narrow margin in parliament. The election outcome is unpredictable. That’s the good news: despite political party abuses both in the campaigns and at the polling places, the press here is free by Balkan standards and elections are serious political contests. Coalition formation before and after leaves a lot uncertain about their outcome.

Elections are inherently divisive. Before it goes back to talks with Belgrade, Pristina will need more unity than it has had during Ramush’s tenure. My advice to whoever the powers will be: the only way to get a good deal is to be willing to walk away from a bad one. And the only way to make a good deal stick is to ensure that most of the citizens are convinced it is good.

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Paying later will cost even more

I spent last week in Kosovo, where the presidency hosted Bill Clinton and Madeleine Albright for a celebration of the country’s liberation by NATO forces 20 years ago. For the 90% of the population that is Albanian, half of whom were expelled in 1998 and 1999, the NATO deployment was a source of great joy, enabling them to return en masse. For Serbs and Roma, the moment was terrifying, as some returning Albanians sought revenge on them for Serbian President Milosevic’s depredations.

The main event last week consisted of speeches in the main square, followed by lunch in the fine Swiss Diamond Hotel and a stroll down Mother Teresa Street to dedicate a bust of former Secretary of State Albright, followed by a motorcade to a statue of former President Clinton. I skipped the Clinton statue, as it was beastly hot and sunny, and I needed to prepare for the evening’s conference on Balkans security 20 years after the NATO/Serbia war.

The Kosovars were out in force for the stroll, anxious to show their affections for the United States. American flags were at least as apparent as Kosovo flags, and chants of “USA” broke out with enthusiasm. President Clinton enjoys pressing the flesh and did it with a big smile on his face. Kosovo President Thaci got far less attention and a few boos. Secretary Albright was in good spirits I knew from a chat we had getting off the plane from Munich, but to tell the truth I rarely caught a glimpse of her short stature during the celebration due to the surrounding crowd.

The mood in Pristina these days is anxious. Talks with Belgrade have been going nowhere. European Union member countries, especially France, have been trying to slow progress towards any further enlargement in the Balkans. Montenegro is too small and too far advanced in accession negotiations to stop, I think, but the consensus needed to open accession talks with Macedonia is not solid. Albania is likely blocked for now. Europe’s hesitation darkens the mood throughout the Balkans and perhaps especially in Kosovo, where NATO and EU membership are the country’s strategic goals.

Reaching them is far off. Kosovo legislation must be compatible with EU requirements, but implementation often lags and EU responsiveness is declining. Even after fulfilling elaborate requirements, Kosovo has not been given the EU visa waiver it was promised. President Thaci and Prime Minister Haradinaj, both products of the wartime Kosovo Liberation Army, are at odds, mainly over how to approach “normalization” with Belgrade. Thaci had indicated he was ready to exchange some Serb-populated territory for Albanian-populated territory in Serbia, but that deal has evaporated under examination by critics (including me). Haradinaj opposed Thaci’s unconsummated deal and has imposed tariffs on Serbian goods imported into Kosovo, stalling the talks with Belgrade. Meanwhile, governance in Kosovo is lamentably corrupt and young people are leaving (as they are from most other countries in the Balkans).

So the celebration of NATO liberation was happy, but Kosovo is not. I was stopped in the street one night by three strangers, two brothers and a cousin, and asked to chat with them in a cafe. They lamented the current situation and tried to convince me that all Kosovo’s ills would be solved by union with Albania. They were uninterested in my questioning whether they would be happy to be governed from Tirana, whose politics are even more contentious than Pristina’s. Nor did they want to discuss my suggestion that neither Kosovo’s politicians nor Albania’s were likely to agree to move their capital. They were content with the notion that Serbs would need to move out of Kosovo if Greater Albania comes into existence.

I am not. There is no reason why, if governed fairly, Serbs and Albanians can’t both enjoy a future in Kosovo. But the current international mood–ethnic nationalism and xenophobia–piled on top of Kosovo’s history of the same is making a liberal democratic outcome there and in the rest of the Balkans less likely than at any time during the past 25 years. Europe and America need to find a way of renewing their promises or face the loss of the statebuilding projects in Kosovo as well as in Bosnia and Herzegovina on which they have spent a good deal of time, money, and effort. Their collapse will certainly cost a great deal more.

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20 years on

I spoke today at a conference in Pristina commenmorating the 20th anniversary of the NATO deployment in Kosovo. These were my speaking notes, but time restriction meant I started around point 11.

I underlined in addition that solid US/EU agreement is vital to getting things done in the Balkans. It does not exist for swapping people and territory on an ethnic basis, as the Americans have said they would entertain the idea but Germany and the UK have ruled it out.

  1. It is a pleasure to be back in Pristina, a city I have known since it was under Serb control.
  2. Whatever your preoccupations today—and I know they are many—let me assure you that this is a far more lively, free, interesting, youthful, and energetic place than it was in 1998.
  3. The Kosovo state that exists today is a product of an amazing, unlikely, and entirely unpredictable series of events. In addition to Kosovo’s own hard work, it involved
    • Albanian nonviolent and violent rebellion,
    • Serbian repression,
    • the dissolution of socialist Yugoslavia,
    • state collapse in Albania,
    • NATO intervention,
    • U.S. and EU support,
    • Russian weakness, and
    • ample international assistance and UN administration.
  4. Without one or another of these ingredients, it might never have occurred, and certainly not in the surprising way that it did.
  5. I underline this point for a reason: those who think they can predict the future of Kosovo, or of the region, are unlikely to be correct. That includes me.
  6. But I do think that we can hope to identify some factors that will either contribute to or detract from regional stability and sustainable peace.
  7. The Prespa agreement, for example, clearly improved regional stability, as it ended any prospect of partition there and opened the door to NATO membership for North Macedonia.
  8. I think normalization of relations between Pristina and Belgrade is the next important step towards sustainable peace.
  9. But like the Prespa agreement it needs to be done in a way that respects regional requirements, not only the desires of Belgrade and Pristina.
  10. This is one of many reasons why I believe all transfers of territory, except those technically required in the border demarcation process, need to be ruled out.
  11. Exchange of people and territory on an ethnic basis would not only demonstrate that neither Pristina nor Belgrade is able to treat all its citizens correctly. It would also destabilize Bosnia as well as Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. Only President Putin could welcome such a move.
  12. Land swaps would even cast doubt on the future of the Serbs south of the Ibar River and of remaining Albanians in southern Serbia.
  13. None of us should want to take such risks.
  14. So what is the alternative?
  15. First, Kosovars need to be patient. Pristina’s leverage will increase as Belgrade approaches EU accession. To get a good deal, you need to be able and willing to walk away from a bad one.
  16. But you also need to be prepared to put something on the table that Belgrade finds attractive. I’ve made several suggestions: limits on the capabilities of the Kosovo army, enhanced protection for Serb sites south of the Ibar, implementation of an Association of Serb Municipalities consistent with the Kosovo Constitutional Court decision.
  17. You also need to get the Pristina/Belgrade dialogue restarted, because the Americans and Europeans want it and you need it.  
  18. Here I am going to offend, in a single sentence, both your President and your Prime Minister: you need to forget about ethnic territorial division and get rid of the tariffs on Serbian goods.
  19. To your President I say this: Vucic cannot give you what you want in southern Serbia and you cannot give him what he wants in northern Kosovo. Neither parliament nor a referendum in either country will approve such a deal.
  20. To your Prime Minister I say this: the tariffs have succeeded in getting you back into the dialogue, but now you should stand on the well-crafted Platform that the political parties have generated. The tariffs have served your purpose and need at least to be suspended.
  21. But you should expect something in return: the EU should implement the visa waiver and the Serbs should end their campaign against Kosovo membership in international organizations. CEFTA should open a serious discussion of Kosovo’s concerns with trade barriers in Serbia.
  22. A mini-package of that sort could restart the dialogue on a more realistic basis, which means ending the discussion of territory but beginning the process of demarcating the border.
  23. A final appeal: you are going to need the Americans to cut a deal with the Russians for your UN membership, a deal that may involve serious sacrifice on the part of Washington.
  24. The Americans will only be ready and willing if you can carry over the incredibly friendly spirit of these two days celebrating the NATO deployment in Kosovo to the dialogue.
  25. That is one more reason for ending talk of ethnic division and tariffs and thereby making sure that the Americans will be ready to do whatever is necessary to ensure your UN membership.  
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Emerging from the woods festival

Boris Kamchev of the Macedonian Information Agency asked me some questions last week about Kosovo. I responded:

Q: Could you please comment on the tensions this week between the Kosovo’s security forces and the Serb-dominated enclave in northern Kosovo. Is this a beginning of a well prepared conflict organized by the Russian factor, for breakaway of the Kosovo’s northern province and its annexation by Serbia?

A: As I understand the events this week, the Kosovo security forces made several arrests in the north of alleged criminals, as is their responsibility. There is no northern province of Kosovo. There are four majority-Serb municipalities that are not going to “breakaway,” not least because KFOR won’t permit it and Belgrade would want to accept them.

Q: What are the options for pacification of the situation and reaching an agreement between Pristina and Belgrade?

A: Arrests of criminals are very much part of maintaining law and order. Belgrade already agreed to the validity and applicability of Kosovo’s constitution and justice system in the north in the April 2013 Brussels agreement. There is no need for a new agreement on that subject.

Racist remarks about Albanians by Serbia’s Prime Minister have aggravated the situation, but the predominant reaction I’ve seen from Albanians is mockery. The situation could benefit from a sense of humor. Rather than banning the Prime Minister, I’d like to see Pristina invite her to an “emerging from the woods” festival.

Q: Are you proponent of a territorial exchange between Pristina and Belgrade for resolution of this question?

A: No. I am a notorious opponent of land and people swaps, which would lead to disaster for Serbs in Kosovo, Albanians in Serbia as well as everyone in Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. The first rule of international behavior is to avoid harm. Only Vladimir Putin would gain from the chaos a land swap would precipitate. The United States and Europe would lose.

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