Tag: belarus
Stevenson’s army, March 15
– WaPo notes that Russia’s mercenary Wagner forces are now in 18 African countries.
– New Covid cases force multiple lockdowns in China.
– Politico reports DOD proposal to send more trainers to Ukraine was rejected in December.
– FT says Russia’s tactics in Ukraine look like Syria playbook.
– NYT says Russia is using missile with good decoys.
-GZero looks at Belarus role.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 4
– US & Russia establish military hotline.
-Russia has friends in Africa.
-WH wants$10 Billion in new Ukraine aid.
– NYT assesses Ukraine military so far.
– BBC tells who’s who in Putin’s inner circle.
– Lawfare lists pros and cons of foreign fighters.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The Russians are hell-bent on war crimes
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has slowed and perhaps even stalled. Ukrainian forces have proven tougher than expected. President Putin Friday appealed for negotiations, encouraged a coup, and yesterday mobilized Russia’s nuclear forces. These are signs he wants the fighting to stop. Moscow has agreed to talks today at the Belarusan border without preconditions. President Zelensky has concurred too, but he is still sounding feisty:
I need ammunition, not a ride.
Outcome uncertain
Russia is favored in resources, manpower, technology, and geography. Putin appears willing to pay whatever price for victory. The question is whether his own administration will permit it. The Russian home front is restive. The anti-war demonstrators won’t be the only ones who oppose him. Inside the Russian security forces there will be general officers unhappy with sacrifice of the army’s resources and capabilities. Putin has presumably coup-proofed himself, just as he has sanctions-proofed the Russian economy. But the protection that affords will not be 100%.
The plywood curtain
No one can predict, however, when Russia will give up on the occupation of Ukraine. It took years in Afghanistan for the mujahadeen to convince Moscow to withdraw. The talks today are unlikely to produce what Kyiv will require: complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine’s territory, including Donbas and Crimea.
In the meanwhile, a new curtain will descend in Europe. The newly drawn line will divide democracies from Russian-controlled autocracies. It won’t be an Iron Curtain. More like a plywood one. Strong, but not unbreakable. Europe “whole and free” will remain a Western mantra. It will not however be a serious proposition so long as Putin or someone of his ilk governs in Moscow.
Belarus and occupied Ukraine as well as Kazakhstan, the other ‘stans, Armenia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia, and at least part of Moldova will be behind the plywood curtain. The question mark will be in the Balkans. Will Serbia choose to remain on the Russian side? Or will it find ways and means to become a serious pro-EU state? So long as Milorad Dodik rules de facto in the Serb 49% (by area) of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sarajevo will not be able to do what most of its population wants: side with the West.
The rest of the world has decisions to make too
China, India, and the United Arab Emirates abstained in the UN Security Council vote on a resolution denouncing Russian aggression. China will try to walk the fine line: against NATO membership for Ukraine but favorable to an (still imaginary) negotiated settlement. India is trying to stay neutral, which amounts to tacit support for Russia.
The UAE made a big mistake. No small country without the means to defend itself militarily against its big neighbors should be siding with Russia. That applies also to Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman. Saudi Arabia’s autocracy is laying low for now, enjoying $100/barrel oil. Turkey and Israel have spoken out, but the latter worries about its relations with Russia in Syria as well as the relatives of its Russian-origin citizens still inside Russia. Zelensky has called for Israeli mediation.
The Germans have made theirs
The Germans took a big step yesterday: they will transfer Stinger anti-aircraft weapons and anti-tank weapons to Ukraine and allowing other countries to transfer German weapons. They have also reversed their postion on shutting the interbank payments system (SWIFT) to some Russian entities. These are major steps that betoken how dramatically the Russian invasion has unified and emboldened NATO.
But Moscow is hell-bent on war crimes
The invasion itself is a war crime. In addition, Moscow is trying to encircle Ukraine’s main cities and getting ready to bombard them. Siege is also a war crime, as it targets not only military objectives but also civilian ones. But it is up to the UN Security Council to decide whether aggression has taken place or to refer Russia to the International Criminal Court. The Russians won’t miss their opportunities to veto.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an exercise in raw power. It aims to replace a democratically elected government with a puppet regime answerable to Moscow. Putin will stop only if compelled either by domestic pressures or military defeat. The Russians are hell-bent on committing war crimes.
PS: Zelensky does have panache, or at least he did in 2006 when he won the Ukrainian Dancing with the Stars:
PSS: Then there is this too, which I wouldn’t call panache, but it takes balls and I’m sure Putin couldn’t manage it:
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Putin’s ugly war of choice
Today the de facto authorities in the Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine are ordering the mass evacuation of civilians to Russia. Supposedly in response to the threat of a Ukrainian attack, this is classic self-cleansing. Its purpose is to create a free-fire zone without a friendly civilian population and to cast the adversary as an ethnic cleanser.
Putin is determined
President Putin appears determined to use force once again in Ukraine. He succeeded eight years ago in the occupation and annexation of Crimea as well as his use of Russian and proxy forces to establish rebel zones in Donbas. Why not try again? With luck, Ukrainian resistance might collapse altogether and allow Moscow to set up a puppet government in Kyiv. More likely, Russian forces will succeed in extending their area of control along the Sea of Azov, perhaps going as far as Crimea.
In the meanwhile, NATO will be reinforcing its forces in the eastern-most member states, something Russia says it doesn’t want. They will also be trying to decide on the sanctions required to respond to Russian aggression. Putin is betting the Alliance will split on that issue and reduce the sanctions to the lowest common denominator. Net result: a NATO military presence that doesn’t really threaten Russia and a falling out among Russia’s adversaries.
Europe whole and free in smithereens
Once the smoke clears, the idea of “Europe whole and free” will be in smithereens. A new curtain will have descended. It won’t be made of iron. On one side will be Lukashenko, the Russian proxies in Moldova and Georgia, Armenia and the central Asian ‘stans. On the other side will be NATO and EU members. Others will either need to choose which sphere of influence they wish to align with or reinvigorate the idea of non-alignment that Serbia and others already champion.
NATO expansion is still possible
It is anyone’s guess how many people will be killed in Putin’s effort to convince the Americans that Ukraine can’t be allowed to decide whether it wants to join NATO. Putin already knows that Ukrainian membership is impossible now and for the foreseeable future, because all of NATO’s 30 member states would need to approve. I doubt even a majority would favor Ukraine’s accession at this point.
But that doesn’t mean NATO won’t expand. Russian behavior in the Baltic and aggression in Ukraine is already well on the way to convincing Sweden and Finland that NATO membership would be a good idea. Both are well-equipped and trained. But neither has the means to defend itself on its own. The NATO door may well be open to both well-ordered and consolidated democracies.
Net results
Putin has succeeded in getting America’s attention and reasserting Russia’s claim to superpower status. The invasion may well split the Alliance on the issue of sanctions. Ukraine will be divided at best and subjugated at worst. But NATO forces will be far stronger and closer to Russia after this war than before it. Moscow will be saddled with an enormous reconstruction burden as well as sanctions.
The biggest known unknown is how Russians will react. This war will belie Putin’s claim of brotherhood with Ukrainians and undermine the Russian economy. Moscow has tried hard to hide the body bags coming back from its military ventures in Syria and Libya. But Russians are not supportive of war in Ukraine and hiding the body bags may be much harder in a ground war of these dimensions. A Russian told me long ago: “We support our czars until we don’t. Then we get rid of them quickly.” Putin’s ugly war of choice could be ugly not only for Ukraine and NATO, but also for him.
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Make Putin watch his back
Alexander Vindman is the former National Security Council official who gave vital incriminating testimony in Trump’s first impeachment. He blew the whistle on the President’s phone call with President Zelensky of Ukraine, in which Trump sought dirt on then candidate Joe Biden. Now a doctoral student at SAIS, Vindman has interesting, if discouraging, things to say about Russian intentions with respect to Ukraine:
Not a lot of good options in Ukraine
Vindman believes Russia is likely to invade Ukraine, with the aim of keeping Ukraine in its sphere of influence and making it a failed state, one that cannot offer a democratic model for those who want to escape Moscow’s tentacles. Sanctions he thinks won’t have much more impact than in the past, because Russia has hardened its economy against them. In addition, Putin controls a $620 billion sovereign wealth fund, and China will help cushion the blow.
The best military hope lies in NATO countries. The US could station more troops in NATO countries near Ukraine. They, especially those on the eastern front that Russia threatens, could in turn train the Ukrainians and perhaps deploy troops and equipment to help the Ukrainian army defend against attack.
But Putin is vulnerable elsewhere
Vindman ignores Putin’s vulnerabilities beyond Ukraine. One of these was dramatically apparent in Kazakhstan over the last few days, when protesters challenged President Tokayev. The protests quickly turned violent. Tokayev sought Russian help to protect vital installations and ordered his forces to shoot to kill.
The Russians did not send a big force–supposedly only 2500 troops–but Putin is also saddled with defending his annexation of Crimea, besieged Belarusan President Lukashenko, secessionist provinces in Georgia, and the homicidal Syrian President Assad, not to mention maintaining Russian forces in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. The Russians are also active through proxy forces in Libya and the Central African Republic. They are building bases in half a dozen African countries. Russian empire-building is reaching further than even Moscow’s Soviet-era ambitions.
A crisis in any one of these places could bring a halt to Putin’s ambitions in Ukraine.
Including at home
Putin is also vulnerable at home. While he has acquired de facto autocratic powers, he is less popular than once he was. Corruption is his Achilles heel. The Kremlin has murdered one potential rival and poisoned, then imprisoned, another. A free and fair election could well do Putin in, so he won’t allow that. He also faces local ethnic and religious minority resistance to his increasingly nationalist and chauvinist rule.
If the Americans want to protect Ukraine, they will need not only to beef up its defenses and undermine Russia’s economy, but also figure out how to exploit Putin’s political and military vulnerabilities beyond Ukraine.
Make Putin watch his back.
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Democracy on the defensive, but not lost yet
I read the Biden/Putin phone call on Tuesday and the Summit of Democracies differently from many others. The former was a clear even if not conclusive win for the US. The latter is more equivocal.
President Putin went into the phone call having mounted most of an invasion force and demanding a binding legal prohibition on Ukraine joining NATO. He came out accepting an official-level dialogue with Washington on European security. That is a win for Biden, even if the invasion force remains in place for now. Moscow will continue at the dialogue to demand a commitment that Ukraine not join NATO, but the Americans won’t yield on that.
Ironically, the best guarantee that Kiev won’t join NATO lies in the current NATO members, few of whom are prepared to take on an obligation to defend Ukraine from Russian aggression. Redoubling the irony: Putin’s mounting of an invasion force has convinced any loyal Ukrainian that NATO membership is highly desirable. That makes two own goals for Putin: he has spent a fortune on an invasion force that was unnecessary and counterproductive.
The Summit of Democracies convening remotely today is harder to judge. It is one more sign of what we already know: democracy is under attack both in the US and in many places abroad. The Republican campaign against the validity of the 2020 US election and Republican legislation limiting the franchise in many states have cast doubt on whether the US can survive as a democracy. Events in Myanmar, Sudan, Belarus, Ethiopia, Afghanistan, and other places have cast more than doubts. Democracy in all those places has suffered severe setbacks in the past year. Not to mention Russia, Serbia, Hungary, Brazil, and other countries that are suffering longer-term erosion of at least semi-democratic institutions and processes. Not to mention the survival of long-standing authoritarian regimes in Syria, Jordan, the Gulf, China, Thailand, and Vietnam.
What good can the Summit of Democracies do? It is difficult to judge. I suppose preparations for it in countries invited and reactions to it in countries not invited may marginally increase pressure for upholding democratic values. Certainly Washington is well aware of its own limitations as a leader of the democratic world and convener of the Summit. The Biden Administration isn’t doing all it might, as it has hesitated to eliminate the anti-democratic filibuster in order to pass Federal voting rights legislation, but it is prosecuting January 6 rioters and suing states that limit voting rights in Federal court.
There is a possibility that some would-be authoritarians in other places will find themselves pressured and even on the ropes, but the overall trend appears to be in their direction. Authoritarians have learned how to weather less draconian political environments, as totalitarian control has become far more difficult due to modern communications and social media. They have also learned how to help each other survive, in order to avoid any domino effects, especially among neighbors. The pendulum has swung in the authoritarian direction, due in part to the corona virus epidemic and the consequent economic slowdown as well as the rallying cries of ethnic/sectarian/linguistic/racial nationalists.
The pendulum can also swing in the other direction, but the Summit looks incapable of making that happen. A successful Russian invasion of Ukraine, or US agreement to block Ukraine from NATO membership, would make things much worse than they already are. Democracy is on the defensive, but not lost yet.
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