Tag: belarus
Stevenson’s army, August 12
– Belarus rejected US proposed ambassador.
– China punished Lithuania over Taiwan.
– FP assesses problems in Afghanistan’s forces.
– FWIW: Here’s the Trump-Taliban peace agreement.
-CBO says debt limit likely to be reached in Oct or Nov
– Data for redistricting to be released today.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, June 22
– US & EU joined in new sanctions on Belarus.
-NYT says Eastern European populists aren’t popular nowadays.
– WOTR piece argues for State Dept reorganization to deal with digital issues.
– Retired army colonel Joe Collins says US civil-military relations aren’t broken.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
If you hijack an airplane, you are a hijacker
Belarus’ hijacking of a Ryanair flight crossing its territory in order to arrest a dissident journalist is a quantum jump in contemporary autocratic behavior. No doubt autocratic governments will justify it on the basis of exerting national sovereignty over their own air space. But it endangered close to 200 innocent people and set a precedent for future actions of this sort. The punishment in most countries is life imprisonment or death.
What can be done about Belarus’ perfidy? The objectives should be the freeing of the journalist and making it clear that there is nothing to be gained from state hijacking of aircraft. The US, EU, UK, and other willing countries should engage as quickly as possible with both Minsk and Moscow to determine if there is any possibility of an early release of the journalist and to convey their willingness to take further action if he is not released right away.
That effort may well fail, so here are a few ideas of next steps to pressure Minsk:
- The US, UK, and EU could expand their travel and financial sanctions on regime figures and institutions in Belarus. These could include SWIFT restrictions on transactions involving Belarusan banks.
- They could end EU, World Bank and International Monetary Fund grants, lending, and programs in Belarus.
- They could prevent Belavia, the national airline, from landing on their territory.
- They could recall their ambassadors for consultations, expel Belarusan diplomats, or break diplomatic relations with Minsk.
- They could pledge to detain for questioning about the incident Belarusan officials found on their territory, including but not limited to President Lukashenko (yes, I know heads of state are supposed to have diplomatic immunity).
- They can insist on an investigation by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).
While this hijacking was manifestly a threat to peace and security, convening the UN Security Council may not be useful, as Belarus can likely rely on Russia to prevent any serious action there, even a presidential statement. After all, that’s what the US did for Israel just in the past couple of weeks to prevent a statement on the Gaza war.
I am not advocating any of the above options, just pointing them out. The trick is to craft some reasonable combination of them and other ideas. Most important is that the US, EU, and UK act together. If they do, the message will be greatly amplified.
There is a real possibility that this is the beginning of the end of Belarusan independence. Russian President Putin, while nominally backing Lukashenko’s right to do what he did, might take the opportunity to defenestrate him (figuratively if not literally), knowing that the West won’t seriously object under current circumstances. Even before this incident, the Russians were taking over. Why not take advantage of the opportunity to complete the process?
President Biden now faces a second crisis situation he doesn’t want, following on the Hamas/Israel war. He looked reasonably adept in that instance. With Belarus, he should expect the EU to play a stronger role, but he has to be prepared to lead if need be. The world will notice if the West is unable to deal with state hijacking. Let’s see what Biden can do.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Peace Picks | March 1 – March 5, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
- Breaking the Tie: Security and Stability in Belarus | March 1, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council| Register Here
For the past six months, Belarusians protesting for free and fair elections across the country have faced growing repression as strongman Alyaksandr Lukashenka attempts to cling to power. The opposition has demonstrated staying power and growing political capital, but the army and the security services remain loyal to Lukashenka. This domestic stalemate also presents a strategic problem for the Kremlin, which seems to have no new ideas beyond some monetary support for Lukashenka’s regime. Meanwhile the US and Europe have responded with modest financial sanctions against the discredited president and his cronies.
Do Lukashenka or Moscow have any new cards to play? Does the opposition? How will the situation in Belarus end and how will Washington, Brussels, and Moscow react?
Speakers:
Dr. Pavel Felgenhauer
Columnist with Novaya Gazeta,
David Kramer
Senior Fellow at Florida International University’s Vaclav Havel Program for Human Rights and Diplomacy
Valery Kavaleuski
Foreign Affairs Adviser to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Dr. Marie Mendras
Professor at Sciences Po’s Paris School of International Affairs
Ambassador John Herbst (Moderator)
Director of the Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
2. Red Flags Report Launch | March 2, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | Center for Strategic International Studies | Register Here
China’s political and economic influence in the Western Balkans is on the rise, fueled in part by a regional demand for infrastructure which is satisfied by opaque deals in the ICT, energy, and transportation sectors. These projects present risks to good governance, economic growth, environmental sustainability, and digital security. Join CSIS for a virtual discussion of a new CSIS report which describes tools and actions critical for stakeholders to objectively evaluate and respond to these risks. The report concludes a three-part series which examined the nature and impact of Chinese economic influence in the Western Balkans and its implications for the region’s stability and Euro-Atlantic aspirations.
Speakers:
Matthew D. Steinhelfer (Keynote)
Acting Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, U.S. Department of State
Heather A. Conley
Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic, CSIS
Jonathan E. Hillman, Senior Fellow and Director of the Reconnecting Asia Project, CSIS
Valerie Hopkins (Moderator)
South-East Europe Correspondent, The Financial Times
3. Lebanon: Challenges and Future Prospects| March 3, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | Middle East Institute| Register Here
The Middle East Institute is pleased to invite you to a panel to launch its Lebanon Program, focusing on Lebanon’s current state of affairs and potential US foreign policy options going forward. The months-long political stalemate and the unaddressed financial crisis keep pushing Lebanon further into chaos and uncertainty. In parallel, the new Biden administration is redefining the US stance vis-à-vis Iran and reassessing some of its bilateral relations in the region. Many of these changes will have direct implications for Lebanon. This distinguished panel will address these local and regional developments, think through ways US foreign policy towards Lebanon can be more nuanced and constructive, and highlight themes and signals that are worth paying attention to in the coming months.
Speakers:
Amb. (ret.) Edward M. Gabriel
President and CEO, American Task Force on Lebanon
May Nasrallah
Chairwoman, Lebanese International Finance Executives
Paul Salem
President, MEI
Mona Yacoubian
Senior Advisor to the Vice President of Middle East and North Africa, United States Institute of Peace
Christophe Abi-Nassif (Moderator)
Lebanon Program Director, MEI
4. Agent Sonya: Moscow’s Most Daring Wartime Spy | March 3, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | Middle East Institute| Register Here
Please join the Intelligence Project for a discussion with Ben MacIntyre on his latest book, Agent Sonya. This true-life spy story is a masterpiece about the Soviet intelligence officer code-named “Sonya.” Over the course of her career, she was hunted by the Chinese, the Japanese, the Nazis, MI5, MI6, and the FBI—and she evaded them all. Her story reflects the great ideological clash of the twentieth century—between Communism, Fascism, and Western democracy—and casts new light on the spy battles and shifting allegiances of our own times.
With unparalleled access to Sonya’s diaries and correspondence and never-before-seen information on her clandestine activities, Macintyre has conjured a page-turning history of a legendary secret agent, a woman who influenced the course of the Cold War and helped plunge the world into a decades-long standoff between nuclear superpowers.
Speakers:
Ben Macintyre
Author and Journalist, The Times
5. Insanity Defense: Why Our Failure to Confront Hard National Security Problems Makes Us Less Safe | March 3, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here
In the wake of unprecedented domestic terror and national security threats in the form of mass shootings and insurrection in the nation’s capital, former Congresswoman & Wilson Center Director, President, and CEO Jane Harman offers her new book Insanity Defense: Why Our Failure to Confront Hard National Security Problems Makes Us Less Safe (St. Martin’s Press; May 18, 2021), which chronicles how four consecutive administrations have failed to confront some of the toughest national security issues and suggests achievable fixes that can move us toward a safer future.
Please join Congresswoman Harman and New York Times national security correspondent and senior writer David Sanger for an in-depth conversation on the book and a discussion on better processes and more sound policy for the next generation of elected officials and the new administration.
Speakers:
Jane Harman
Director, President and CEO, Wilson Center
David Sanger
Former Distinguished Fellow, National Security Correspondent and Writer, the New York Times; Author, The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage and Fear in the Cyber Age
6. Religion, Ethnicity, and Charges Of Extremism: The Dynamics Of Inter-Communal Violence In Ethiopia| March 4, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | European Institute of Peace| Register Here
In recent months, the conflict in Tigray has dominated most analyses of Ethiopian politics. The scale of the Tigray crisis makes this understandable, but in its shadow, inter-communal tensions and conflicts have persisted across Ethiopia. In recent years there were numerous violent incidents, such as the Amhara regional ‘coup’ attempt of June 2019, the violence across Oromia in October 2019, and incidents around Timkat in Dire Dawa and Harar in January 2020.
A team of Ethiopian and international researchers – Terje Østebø, Jörg Haustein, Fasika Gedif, Kedir Jemal Kadir, Muhammed Jemal, and Yihenew Alemu Tesfaye – studied two incidents of inter-communal violence: the attacks on mosques and (mostly) Muslim properties in Mota, Amhara region in December 2019 and the violence and destruction of properties in Shashemene and other towns in Oromia in July 2020. They will present their findings in this event, followed by discussion and Q&A.
Their research shows that in Ethiopia religion and ethnic violence overlap and interact with one another in complex ways. Given the current emphasis on ethnicity in Ethiopian politics, the role of religious affiliation is often overlooked, yet it is here that the accusation of “extremism” is most frequently and most consequentially raised: the mere expectation or accusation of extremism has sufficed to generate inter-communal violence and deepened a climate of mistrust.
Speakers:
Terje Østebø
University of Florida
Jörg Haustein
University of Cambridge
Sandy Wade (Moderator)
Senior Advisor, European Institute of Peace
7. COVID-19 and Cooperation in Libya | March 4, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace| Register Here
Libya is at a turning point after the U.N.-sponsored Libyan Political Dialogue Forum elected a temporary executive authority in February to unify the country and move toward elections by year’s end. However, sustainable peace cannot be achieved with only an agreement at the national level. And the COVID-19 crisis has exacerbated economic challenges, strained the country’s health infrastructure, and added a new layer of complexity to the country’s conflict. Local-level cooperation—and linking these efforts to the national-level peace process—is of utmost importance to achieve a cohesive and peaceful country.
And despite a difficult year, there have been bright spots for Libya on this front. The COVID-19 pandemic yielded many examples of local-level initiatives where Libyans came together in challenging conditions to cooperate for a common goal. The hope is that these successes can lead to longer and more enduring areas of cooperation.
Join USIP as we host Libya’s ambassador to the United States and Libyan civil society leaders for a look at stories of positive community cooperation during the current crisis—as well as a discussion on how Libyan and international organizations can build off these successes to navigate Libya’s complex conflict and ensure a peaceful future for the country.
Speakers:
Wafa Bughaighis (Keynote speaker)
Libyan Ambassador to the United States
Ahmed Albibas
Director, Moomken Organization for Awareness and Media
Abdulrahman A. S. Elgheriani
President and CEO, Tanmia 360
Craig Browne
Program Policy Officer, World Food Programme
Nate Wilson (Moderator)
Libya Country Manager, U.S. Institute of Peace
8. Unraveling the Conflict in Syria March 4, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
In 2012, as the conflict in Syria continued to smolder, then-president Barack Obama made clear that any use of chemical weapons by the Bashar al-Assad regime would constitute a “red line” for U.S. engagement. Yet in the aftermath of a sarin attack outside Damascus just a year later, the Obama administration seized the opportunity to work with Russia on an ambitious plan to hunt down and remove chemical weapons rather than go to war. A decade later, the tangle of “heroes and villains” involved in that particular scenario is clearer.
Speakers:
Joby Warrick
Author of Red Line
Maha Yahya
Director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
9. The Future of ISIS March 4, 2021 | 11:30 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
On October 27, 2019, then-US President Donald Trump announced that the leader of the so-called Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was killed in Syria in an American special operation, striking a blow against an already weakened organization.
What ISIS accomplished during the period of its rise and growth represents a “quantum leap” in the ideology, strategies, and operating theories of terrorist groups, and requires deep analysis of the organization’s expected future trajectory. The Politics and Society Institute in Amman, Jordan, and the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative in Washington, DC, are pleased to co-host this expert discussion. This panel will shed light on what opportunities exist for policymakers to deal with the legacy of ISIS detainees and returnees, as well as on strategies against a potential resurgence in Iraq and Syria.
Speakers:
Mohammed Abu Rumman
Expert, Politics and Society Institute
Former Jordanian Minister of Youth and Culture
Borzou Daragahi
Journalist and Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Andrew Peek
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Former US Deputy Assistant Secretary for Iran and Iraq
Mara Revkin
National Security Law Fellow, Georgetown University Law Center
Banan Malkawi (Moderator)
Jordanian-American Researcher and Lecturer
10. Strategic nuclear modernization in the United States| March 4, 2021 | 2:00 PM ET | Brookings Institutions| Register Here
What: As with prior administrations before it, the Biden administration is preparing to undertake a major review of the U.S. strategic nuclear modernization program. Though the U.S. arsenal has decreased in accordance with the New START treaty, new delivery systems are still being developed.
Supporters of the current program argue that implementation is critical for the United States’ ability to deter adversaries and reassure allies. Opponents argue that the current program is well in excess of deterrence requirements and is not affordable over the long term. During the review period, Congress will examine the current program as well as requested funding for these systems.
On Thursday, March 4, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings will host a panel to discuss how the Biden administration will – and should – approach negotiations regarding the future of the strategic modernization program.
Speakers:
Tom Collina
Director of Policy, Ploughshares Fund
Madelyn R. Creedon
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Center for Security, Strategy and Technology
Franklin Miller
Principal, The Scowcroft Group
Amy Woolf
Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy, Congressional Research Service
Frank A Rose
Co-Director and Foreign Policy Fellow, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Peace Picks | December 7 – December 11, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Insecurity in Northeast Nigeria and Beyond | December 7, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:30 PM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
Nigeria, one of Africa’s largest economies, is also the lynchpin of security in western Africa. Yet for over a decade, it has struggled to address devastating jihadi insurgencies and terrorism by Boko Haram and the Islamic State. Victory against both groups remains elusive and security in northeastern Nigeria has significantly deteriorated since 2017. Insecurity has also spread to northwestern Nigeria with the farmers-herders’ conflict, which is compounded by the intensifying effects of global warming and remains dormant at best. Proliferating across the country, militia groups add another complex security challenge. Amidst these widespread challenges, Nigerians are demanding meaningful human security and accountability from the often-brutal military and law enforcement forces, such as the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS). Layered over these issues, the coronavirus pandemic has devastated local economies, exacerbating already high levels of poverty and inequality and fractious political processes.
On December 7, the Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors and the Africa Security Initiative at Brookings will hold a panel discussion to explore these complex and overlapping issues. After their remarks, panelists will take questions from the audience.
Speakers:
Ambassador John Campbell: Ralph Bunche Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies, and former U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria – The Council on Foreign Relations
Takwa Z. Suifon: Peace and Development Advisor to the United Nations Resident Coordinator – United Nations Country Team in Nigeria
Sophia Comfort Michael: Manager – Norwegian Refugee Council in Nigeria
Siobhan O’Neil: Project Director of the Managing Exits from Armed Conflict Project – Centre for Policy Research, United Nations University
Vanda Felbab-Brown, moderator: Director – Initiative on Nonstate Armed ActorsCo-Director – Africa Security InitiativeSenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology
2. Pandemics, Peace, and Justice: Shaping What Comes Next | December 7, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:30 AM; 4:00 – 5:00 PM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
For the last eight years, the annual PeaceCon conference has offered a dynamic platform for frontline peacebuilders, policymakers, philanthropists, and private sector and civil society leaders working at the nexus of peacebuilding, security, and development to engage in meaningful dialogue and develop substantive plans for action. This year’s conference—with the theme “Pandemics, Peace, and Justice: Shaping What Comes Next”—will explore the relationship between justice and peacebuilding in the context of COVID-19 and the worldwide reckoning over systemic injustice and racism.
With the move to an entirely virtual format, PeaceCon 2020 aims to attract an even more diverse set of voices, expertise, and ideas from across the world. Sessions will go beyond exploring the problems and will challenge participants to put forward differing points of view and distill learning outcomes into pragmatic solutions.
Join USIP, in partnership with the Alliance for Peacebuilding, as we kickstart PeaceCon 2020 with a high-level keynote and panel discussion on December 7, 2020. The discussion will address the relationship between COVID-19, conflict, and fragility, and consider strategies for the international community to address the peace and security implications of the pandemic. Following a series of breakout sessions hosted by the Alliance for Peacebuilding, participants will re-join USIP for a fireside chat with Darren Walker, the president of the Ford Foundation.
Agenda
9:00am – 10:30am: AfP-USIP Plenary Session
Welcome Remarks
Lise Grande: President & CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
Uzra Zeya: President, Alliance for Peacebuilding
Julia Roig: Chair, Board of Directors, Alliance for Peacebuilding
Keynote Address
Senator Chris Coons (D-DE): U.S. Senator from Delaware
High Level Panel: COVID and Fragility: Risks and Recovery
Paige Alexander: CEO, The Carter Center
David Beasley: Executive Director, World Food Programme
Tjada D’Oyen McKenna: CEO, Mercy Corps
Ambassador Mark Green: Executive Director, McCain Institute
Dr. Joseph Hewitt, moderator: Vice President for Policy, Learning & Strategy, U.S. Institute of Peace
4:00pm – 5:00pm: Afternoon Keynote: Fireside Chat with Darren Walker
Darren Walker: President, Ford Foundation
Uzra Zeya, moderator: President, Alliance for Peacebuilding
3. A Conversation with Belarusian Opposition Leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | December 7, 2020 | 10:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Belarus has been rocked by mass protests since its longtime authoritarian leader, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, claimed victory in the country’s rigged August 9 presidential election. After being forced to flee the country due to threats to her family, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya—widely recognized by the international community as the real winner of the election—has led the Belarusian opposition movement while conducting an international campaign to rally support for the Belarusian people in their peaceful protests to remove Lukashenka from power. With firm backing from Russian President Vladimir Putin and an inability to keep protesters from filling the streets each week, Lukashenka and his security forces have illegally detained, beaten, and tortured Belarusians for demonstrating against his government. Tsikhanouskaya has fought for the advancement of self-determination, human rights, and freedom in Belarus, and is the recipient of the European Union’s Sakharov Prize, the bloc’s top human rights award. Today, Tsikhanouskaya continues to lead the Coordination Council for the Transfer of Power, recognized by EU lawmakers as the legitimate representative of the Belarusian people.
Speakers:
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya: Belarusian Opposition Leader
4. Responding to Venezuela’s Parliamentary Elections | December 7, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 12:30 PM ET | CSIS | Register Here
On December 6th, the Maduro regime will hold National Assembly elections despite lacking adequate electoral conditions. Though many countries will not recognize the results of these elections, the regime is nevertheless expected to replace the current opposition-led National Assembly with the newly elected legislators on January 5th.
In the wake of these elections, the international community will have two important decisions to make. States will decide whether and how to uphold the legitimacy of the Venezuelan interim government, which derives its legitimacy from the current National Assembly. States will also decide whether and how to continue recognizing the 2015-2020 National Assembly, which could have its mandate extended if there is no legitimately elected legislature to take its place. These decisions will impact the Interim Government’s representation abroad, determining the extent to which the Venezuelan opposition can continue to safeguard external assets, protect Venezuela’s resources, oversee humanitarian assistance, denounce human rights violations, and facilitate a peaceful democratic transition.
Speakers
Carrie Filipetti: Deputy Assistant Secretary for Cuba and Venezuela, U.S. Department of State
José Ignacio Hernández: Former Special Prosecutor of the Venezuela Interim Government
Michael Grant: Assistant Deputy Minister for the Americas, Global Affairs Canada
5. Understanding a Year of Political Turmoil in and Around Russia | December 8, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM ET | CSIS | Register Here
A constitutional overhaul. Protests in Khabarovsk and a flawed election in Belarus. An anemic economy and a raging pandemic. A poisoned opposition leader. Turkish forces deployed in Azerbaijan, Russia’s ‘near abroad.’ For the Kremlin, 2020 was supposed to be a triumphant year but it rapidly transformed into one of deep uncertainty and malaise. How should we interpret all of these events? As rumors circulate in Moscow questioning President Putin’s longevity as Russia’s leader, is the regime stable? Where is public opinion trending ahead of the consequential 2021 Duma elections? How do a younger generation view Russia’s future? And, what does all of this mean for Europe and the incoming Biden administration?
Speakers
Denis Volkov: Deputy Director, Levada Center
Andrei Kolesnikov: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Moscow Center
Ernest Wyciszkiewicz: Director, Centre for Polish-Russian Dialogue and Understanding
6. Five Years Later: UNSCR 2250 on Youth, Peace, and Security | December 8, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
December 9 will mark five years since the U.N. Security Council unanimously passed Resolution 2250 on Youth, Peace, and Security (YPS). UNSCR 2250 was a milestone in the international community’s affirmation that youth play a significant role in realizing global peace and security. While youth have previously been depicted as victims, targets, or perpetrators of violent conflict, UNSCR 2250 represented a shift in discourse toward youth as peacebuilders and agents of change capable of preventing, mitigating, and resolving conflict in their communities.
Studies have demonstrated that including and partnering with young people helps foster a more sustainable peace. However, despite continued support from the U.N., and grassroots efforts to encourage inclusive representation of youth in decision making, there remain structural barriers that prevent youth from contributing to YPS on national, regional, and local levels.
Join USIP for a discussion with the co-chair of the Global Coalition on Youth, Peace, and Security and two youth peacebuilders as they reflect on the tangible progress that has been made on the YPS agenda since the passage of Resolution 2250, as well as the challenges to effective implementation of the agenda around the world.
Speakers:
David Yang, welcoming remarks: Vice President, Applied Conflict Transformation Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
Lorena Gómez Ramírez: USIP Generation Change Fellow; USIP Youth Advisory Council Member
Cécile Mazzacurati: Head, Secretariat on Youth, Peace and Security, United Nations Population Fund; Co-chair, Global Coalition on Youth, Peace, and Security
Mridul Upadhyay: USIP Generation Change Fellow; USIP Youth Advisory Council Member
Rebecca Ebenezer-Abiola, moderator: Program Officer, Curriculum and Training Design, U.S. Institute of Peace
7. Belarus: Is the Tide Turning? | December 8, 2020 | 12:30 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The democratic revolution in Belarus has outlasted expectations despite mass detentions, torture of democratic activists, and crackdowns on independent media perpetrated by dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime. Since demonstrations began in August, the United States and European Union have each condemned the state’s violent treatment of protestors while expanding sanctions against Lukashenka and his cronies. But with financial and security assistance from the Kremlin propping up the authoritarian regime, Congress and the incoming Biden administration must do more to support the Belarusian people in their struggle for freedom and democracy.
Speakers
Ambassador John Herbst: director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
Franak Viačorka: nonresident fellow at the Eurasia Center; adviser to Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Dr. Michael Carpenter: nonresident senior fellow at the Eurasia Center; senior director of the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement
Melinda Haring, moderator: deputy director of the Eurasia Center
8. Lessons from Afar: Anti-Apartheid, the Arab Spring, and the Path Forward | December 9, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment of Peace | Register Here
The anti-apartheid struggle in South Africa captured the world’s attention during the latter half of the 20th century, just as the Arab Spring did in the early 21st. Precisely three decades after Nelson Mandela’s release from prison and a decade from the start of the Arab Spring, what lessons can we draw from South Africa as the Middle East continues to seek stability? And as people across the world confront rising authoritarianism, how can these important moments in history be guiding lights for lasting change?
Speakers
H. A. Hellyer: senior associate fellow and scholar at the Royal United Services Institute in London; nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Shafiq Morton: an award-winning Cape Town-based journalist
Ebrahim Rasool: former Ambassador of South Africa to the United States
Zaha Hassan: human rights lawyer, visiting fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
9. How Movements Fight Corruption | December 9, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:15 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
In the fight against corruption, civil society is often at the forefront of advancing innovative plans and solutions to increase government transparency and accountability and ultimately root out graft across different sectors. The urgent global response to the COVID-19 pandemic makes this function of civil society all the more crucial, as the same measures meant to stem the pandemic’s devastating health and economic effects also heighten the risk of corruption. As the world celebrates International Anti-Corruption Day, it’s important to elevate the voices of civil society leaders and movements working diligently to stifle and prevent corruption—as well as address the challenges they face.
Join USIP for a discussion on these citizen and movement efforts, including those in Guatemala, Ukraine, and Zimbabwe. This event will feature activists, scholars of nonviolent action, and international donors to explore the various ways bottom-up pressure can be used to make governments more open, hold leaders accountable, and prevent and curb corruption. This conversation will also draw insights from a series of USIP Special Reports, products of a multi-year research project in six different countries, to provide lessons on how policymakers and international actors can best support movements working to advance transparency and accountability.
Speakers:
Gladys Kudzaishe Hlatywayo: Secretary for International Relations, MDC Alliance
Olena Tregub: Secretary General, Independent Defence Anti-Corruption Committee, Transparency International
Walter Flores: Principal Advisor, Center for Studies for Equity and Governance in Health Systems
Bryan Sims: Senior Manager of Peacebuilding, Humanity United
Shaazka Beyerle, moderator: Senior Fellow, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center, George Mason University
10. What does Aung San Suu Kyi’s Electoral Success Mean for Myanmar? | December 9, 2020 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM ET | Stimson Center | Register Here
The governing National League for Democracy won a stunning victory in Myanmar’s recent election. Supporters claim the NLD’s strong showing represents an endorsement of Aung San Suu Kyi’s leadership. Critics point to flaws in the electoral process, including censorship of NLD opponents and disenfranchisement of Rohingyas and other ethnic minorities. How will the NLD’s mandate affect democratic development and progress in the peace process? How should the incoming Biden administration respond to Myanmar?
Speakers
Scot Marciel: Former US Ambassador to Myanmar (2016-20); Visiting Practitioner Fellow on Southeast Asia, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University
Mary Callahan: Associate Professor of International Studies from the University of Washington.
William Wise, moderator: Non-Resident Fellow and Chair, Southeast Asia Forum, Stimson Center
11. Lessons Learned for Afghanistan from El Salvador’s Peace Process | December 10, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 1:00 PM ET | CSIS | Register Here
Peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban began in Doha, Qatar in September 2020, providing an unprecedented opportunity for peace after forty years of conflict and war. As these critical negotiations unfold, it is important to consider historical examples of countries who have successfully overcome seemingly intractable conflicts to forge peace.
This event will highlight important lessons from El Salvador’s peace process in order to provide insight into the ongoing Afghan peace talks. While the conditions are significantly different than those in Afghanistan, the peace process to end the civil war in El Salvador can provide key lessons for Afghanistan on complex peace negotiations by highlighting both the successes and challenges of their peace process.
Speakers
Ambassador Anne Patterson: Former Assistant Secretary of Near Eastern Affairs (2013-2017) and Ambassador to El Salvador (1997-2000)
Ambassador Álvaro de Soto: Former UN Secretary-General’s Representative for El Salvador peace negotiations
General Mauricio “Chato” Vargas: Congressman, San Salvador, El Salvador
Ambassador Ruben Zamora: Former Salvadoran Ambassador to the United Nations (2014-2017) and Salvadoran Ambassador to the United States (2013-2014)
12. 50 Years of the Assad Dynasty | December 10, 2020 | 2:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
On November 13, 1970, Syria witnessed its last of many coups following its 1946 independence from the French. Fifty years later, the country remains led by a dynasty that has outlasted not only nine American presidents, but has also managed to maintain its iron grip over Syria while surrounding regimes have successively succumbed to regional upheaval.
This panel will reflect on the Assad family’s impact on Syria and the region, its relationship with the United States, and what the future might hold for the family and the regime.
Agenda:
Opening remarks
William Wechsler: Director, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East and Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
Ibrahim Al-Assil: Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute
Rahaf Aldoughli: Lecturer in Middle East and North African Studies, Lancaster University
Steven Heydemann: Janet Wright Ketcham 1953 Chair in Middle East Studies, Smith College
Joseph Bahout: Director, Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs, American University of Beirut
Rima Maktabi, moderator: UK Bureau Chief, Al Arabiya News Channel
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, September 15
-An American think tank has a new revealing poll of attitudes toward foreign policy. More reassuring than dramatic.
– New data on how much dark money there is in US politics. More details at opensecrets.org.
-Military Times has helpful list of upcoming hearings.
– WaPo reports Israeli concerns about F-35 sale to UAE. [Note: this issue will come up in next week’s exercise.]– Putin & Lukashenko discuss “integration.“
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
RSS - Posts
