Tag: belarus
Peace Picks | September 14 – September 18, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Tenth Annual South China Sea Conference, Session Three | September 14, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
The CSIS Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative are pleased to present the Tenth Annual South China Sea Conference: Session Three on Monday, September 14, 2020. This monthly webinar series will provide opportunities for in-depth discussion and analysis of developments in the South China Sea over the past year and potential paths forward. This session will feature a panel discussion on dispute management in the South China Sea, including coordination mechanisms for law enforcement, fisheries, and other natural resources.
Speakers:
Amanda Hsiao: Project Manager, Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue
Ivy Kwek: Research Director, Research for Social Advancement (REFSA), Kuala Lumpur
Greta Nabbs-Keller: Research Fellow, Centre for Policy Futures, University of Queensland
2. Global Democracy and the Coronavirus Fallout | September 14, 2020 | 2:30 – 4:00 PM CEST | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Europe | Register Here
As the coronavirus pandemic tests governments and societies around the world, it is also stressing the already fragile state of global democracy by undermining critical democratic processes, sidelining human rights, and unfettering authoritarianism.
How can Europe’s response to the crisis address the immediate issues and bolster democracy, protect human rights, and foster longer-term peace and stability around the world?
On the eve of International Democracy Day, join Per Olsson Fridh, Anu Juvonen, and Stefano Sannino for a discussion to explore the state of global democracy, European foreign policy, and democracy support amid the pandemic. Rosa Balfour will moderate.
Speakers:
Per Olsson Fridh: State Secretary to the Minister for International Development Cooperation, Sweden.
Anu Juvonen: Executive Director of Demo Finland, Political Parties of Finland for Democracy.
Stefano Sannino: Deputy Secretary General for economic and global issues of the European External Action Service.
Rosa Balfour: Director of Carnegie Europe.
3. Venezuela on the Brink of Famine: The Impact of Covid-19 | September 15, 2020 | 10:00 – 10:45 AM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
Hospitals in Venezuela are reporting deadly surges in Covid-19, a pandemic the country is utterly unprepared to treat. The Maduro regime has limited testing to a few government-controlled labs, casting doubt on official government tallies. And, while aid and technical assistance have trickled in—facilitated by a humanitarian agreement signed by the opposition and the regime in early June—much more is needed. Gasoline remains scarce despite highly publicized gasoline shipments from Iran, paralyzing food distribution systems. 35% of adults are eating only once per day. Facing economic uncertainty, tens of thousands of vulnerable migrants have chosen to return, and the regime has accused them of being ‘biological weapons’. Now the poorest country in Latin America, Venezuela is on the verge of famine with a third of its population in urgent need of humanitarian assistance.
This virtual event will shed light on the gravity of the situation on the ground and how the Covid-19 pandemic has further deepened the humanitarian crisis. We will hear from representatives of civil society organizations that are monitoring and responding to the humanitarian crisis, including Cáritas Venezuela and Acción Solidaria.
Speakers:
Susana Raffalli: Senior Humanitarian Adviser, Cáritas Venezuela
Feliciano Reyna: President, Acción Solidaria.
4. Inaugural Women Building Peace Award Celebration | September 15, 2020 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
Every day, women around the world are leading movements to create enduring, peaceful societies. Yet all too often, women’s roles in ending and preventing conflict go unnoticed. The U.S. Institute of Peace is committed to changing that. With the inaugural Women Building Peace Award, USIP will honor the inspiring work of women peacebuilders whose courage, leadership, and commitment to peace stand out as beacons of strength and hope.
From Africa and the Middle East to Southeast Asia and South America, USIP’s 10 Women Building Peace Award finalists have overcome conflict and violence to forge hope for a brighter future. Individually, they have transformed themselves, their communities, and their countries through their relentless and creative approaches to building peace. Together, their stories reveal the resilience of the human spirit in the face of overwhelming odds and the power of women to mold lasting peace from seemingly endless conflict.
Join USIP for the inaugural Women Building Peace Award ceremony and hear from these inspiring women, whose collective work stretches across continents and spans generations, as they share how they made their communities and the world a better, more peaceful place.
The ceremony will also feature peace strategist and consultant to the United Nations Sanam Naraghi Anderlini, Nobel Peace Prize winner Leymah Gbowee, Academy Award winning actor Geena Davis, former USIP President and CEO Nancy Lindborg, and other prominent women in media and peacebuilding who are working across the United States and globally to create an environment that enables girls, women, and all people to realize their potential as peacebuilders, leaders, and agents of change.
The event will conclude with the announcement of the sole 2020 Women Building Peace Award recipient. The awardee, whose substantial and practical contributions to peace serve as an inspiration and guiding light for future women peacebuilders, will receive a $10,000 prize.
Speakers:
Sanam Naraghi Anderlini, MBE: Founder & CEO, International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN); Director, Centre for Women, Peace and Security, London School of Economics and Political Science
Megan C. Beyer: Co-chair, Women Building Peace Council
Marcia Myers Carlucci: Co-chair, Women Building Peace Council
Ambassador Johnnie Carson: Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace
Ambassador Kelley E. Currie: Ambassador at Large for Global Women’s Issues, U.S. Department of State
Geena Davis: Founder, Geena Davis Institute on Gender in Media
Leymah Gbowee: 2011 Nobel Peace Laureate; Founder/President, Gbowee Peace Foundation Africa (GPFA)
Michelle J. Howard: Admiral, U.S. Navy (Ret.)
Nancy Lindborg; Former President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace; Honorary Women Building Peace Council Chair
5. Defense Policy and the 2020 Election | September 15, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:00 PM EDT | Brookings Institution | Register Here
The 2020 election takes place at an extraordinarily polarized moment in American history. Having claimed over 180,000 lives and destroyed millions of jobs, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to dominate headlines and will be at the forefront of voters’ minds when they cast their ballots in November. Yet, America also faces a wide array of national security threats beyond the pandemic, threats that require attention, planning, and investment from national leadership. While the National Defense Strategy places a rising China and a revanchist Russia at the heart of defense planning, other threats such as extremist actors, climate change, and transnational criminal organizations challenge the U.S. as well. Moreover, as the nation embraces historically high deficits to tackle the pandemic, Congress and the administration will need to make difficult trade-offs to pay for it all, promising a contentious debate in the coming year about the future of the defense budget.
On September 15, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings, as part of the Policy 2020 event series, will discuss these and other issues as the nation prepares for the upcoming 2020 presidential election.
The Policy 2020 event series aims to empower voters with fact-based, data-driven, non-partisan information so they can better understand the policy matters discussed by candidates running for office in 2020.
Speakers:
Michael E. O’Hanlon: Director of Research – Foreign PolicyCo-Director, Security and StrategySenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and IntelligenceThe Sydney Stein, Jr. Chair
Frank A. Rose: Co-Director, Security and StrategySenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence
Maya MacGuineas: President – Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
Jessica Mathews: Distinguished Fellow – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
6. Is a Plan B Needed to Save Afghanistan? | September 16, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The future of Afghanistan’s constitutionally liberal democratic system is very much at issue. On its survival rests the aspiration of the greatest number of its people, the deep investment of the international community in the country’s stability and wellbeing, and ultimately the security of the region and beyond. Negotiations are beginning in what is certain to be a lengthy process that may in the name of a compromise trade away social and economic gains realized over nearly two decades. Afghanistan has additionally to cope with the disengagement of foreign forces just at a time when their leverage militarily and diplomatically could be critical. In the absence of a verifiable ceasefire, the country confronts a prospect of exploding violence and possible descent into chaos.
Can Afghanistan pull itself together to not only protect its achievements but to overcome past errors? Should Afghans and their international partners think about formulating a Plan B to save the republic while striving for true reconciliation with the insurgency? The Middle East Institute is pleased to host a panel of experts to discuss these questions and more.
Speakers:
Anthony Cordesman: Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Ali Jalali: Distinguished professor, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University
Saad Mohseni: Chairman and CEO, MOBY Group
David Sedney: President, American University of Afghanistan
Muqaddesa Yourish: Former Afghan deputy minister of commerce; member, MOBY Group Media; political activist
Marvin Weinbaum, moderator: Director, Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, Middle East Institute
7. American Leadership in Advancing the Sustainable Development Goals | September 16, 2020 | 1:00 – 2:30 PM EDT | Brookings Institution | Register Here
The devastating health and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have exposed and exacerbated stark inequalities and vulnerabilities in the United States. At the same time, protests sparked by the tragic killing of George Floyd have put the spotlight on America’s long history of racial injustice. The commitment to equity, justice, and environmental preservation reflected in the sustainable development goals (SDGs) is more critical today than ever, a foundation to respond to these crises and to build a future that leaves no one behind. Building off a successful first gathering last year on the margins of the UN General Assembly, this event will showcase local innovation, leadership, actions, and commitments from all parts of the American society, including cities, businesses, universities, philanthropy, and youth activists. Their leadership is crucial to a recovery that advances equity and sustainability here at home, and provides a fundamental basis for U.S. credibility and leadership abroad on the defining issues of our day.
On Wednesday, September 16, from 1:00 – 2:30 p.m. EDT, the Brookings Institution and the UN Foundation will co-host a high-level virtual event to showcase the power of the SDGs in the United States.
Speakers and Itinerary:
WELCOME
John R. Allen: President, The Brookings Institution
SPOTLIGHT 1
Fatimata Cham: Youth Poet and Activist
CONTEXT
Anthony F. Pipa: Senior Fellow – Global Economy and Development
KEYNOTE
Hon. Eric Garcetti: Mayor – Los Angeles
PANAL: ENGINES OF ACTION FOR THE SDGS
Penny Abeywardena: Commissioner for International Affairs – Mayor’s Office, City of New York
Majestic Lane: Chief Equity Officer – City of Pittsburgh
Rose Stuckey Kirk: Chief Corporate Social Responsibility Officer – VerizonPresident – Verizon Foundation
Dr. Yvette E. Pearson: Associate Dean for Accreditation, Assessment, and Strategic Initiatives; George R. Brown School of Engineering – Rice University
Kathleen McLaughlin: President – Walmart FoundationExecutive Vice President and Chief Sustainability Officer – Walmart, Inc.
SPOTLIGHT 2: LAUNCH OF CMU’S VOLUNTARY UNIVERSITY REVIEW
James H. Garrett Jr.: Provost and Chief Academic Officer – Carnegie Mellon University
LAUNCH OF HAWAII’S STATEWIDE REVIEW OF THE SDG’S & LOOKING FORWARD
Amb. Elizabeth Cousens: President and CEO – UN Foundation
Sen. Brian Schatz: Senator – Hawaii
Gov. David Y. Ige: Governor – Hawaii
SPOTLIGHT 3
Dustin Liu: UNA-USA Youth Observer to the UN
WRAP UP
Kaysie Brown: Vice President for Policy and Strategic Initiatives – UN Foundation
8. Toward Never Again: U.S. Leadership in Atrocity Prevention | September 16, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
The Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act of 2018 calls upon the United States to pursue a government-wide strategy to identify, prevent, and respond to atrocity risk. Critically, the Act underscores the importance of a White House-led interagency working group charged with monitoring atrocity risk and responding to high-risk or imminent atrocity situations. The Atrocity Early Warning Task Force has refined the U.S. approach to atrocity prevention through enhanced early warning and improved interagency coordination to mitigate atrocity risks.
Join USIP and the State Department’s Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations for a discussion on institutionalizing “never again,” as well as interagency efforts to prevent, mitigate, and respond to atrocity risks.
Speakers:
Philippe Leroux-Martin: Director of Governance, Justice & Security, U.S. Institute of Peace
Denise Natali: Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, U.S. Department of State
Naomi Kikoler: Director, Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum
Robert Destro: Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, U.S. Department of State
Stephanie Hammond: Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary, Peacekeeping and Stabilization Operations, U.S. Department of Defense
Kirsten Madison: Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, U.S. Department of State
Peter Marocco: Assistant to the Administrator, Bureau of Conflict Prevention and Stabilization, U.S. Agency for International Development
Morse Tan: Ambassador-at-Large, Global Criminal Justice, U.S. Department of State
9. India’s Foreign Policy Outlook: An Inflection Point? | September 17, 2020 | 10:30 – 11:30 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
How is India responding to rapid changes in the international environment? New Delhi has been managing an unprecedented border crisis with China, warily watching a peace process with the Taliban in Afghanistan, and navigating complex relationships with its neighbors—all amid the global COVID-19 pandemic. How does India define its foreign policy outlook and priorities in a changing global and regional order? Where do continued strong bilateral ties with the United States fit in?
Join USIP as we host one of India’s foremost diplomats and scholars, former Foreign Secretary and former Ambassador to both China and the United States Nirupama Rao, for a candid conversation that explores how Indian leaders are managing challenges in the Indo-Pacific and what we may expect from Indian foreign policy going forward. Ambassador Rao will reflect on her experience and the increasingly relevant lessons from her forthcoming book on India-China relations after World War II.
Speakers:
Andrew Wilder: Vice President, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
Ambassador Nirupama Rao: Former Foreign Secretary of India; Former Indian Ambassador to China and the United States
Vikram Singh: Senior Advisor, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
10. Belarus and Democracy in Europe | September 18, 2020 | 9:30 AM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Authoritarianism is on the rise across the world, and it is posing a serious challenge to democracy and the post-World War II international system. In Central and Eastern Europe, Freedom House states that there are fewer democracies today than at “any point” since 1995. The remarkable events in Belarus over the past month, however, stand as a strong counterpoint to that trend. The democratic impulse remains powerful, and the refusal of Belarusians to accept another fraudulent presidential election has initiated a standoff whose outcome is uncertain. President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who ruled Belarus for 26 years without a serious challenge to his power, now faces one of the strongest pro-democracy movements in Europe in recent years.
Speakers:
Linas Linkevičius: Lithuanian Foreign Minister
Melinda Haring: deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
Vladimir Kara-Murza: chairman of the Boris Nemtsov Foundation for Freedom and vice president of the Free Russia Foundation
Hanna Liubakova: journalist at Outriders and fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
Damon Wilson: executive vice president at the Atlantic Council
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Peace Picks | August 17 – August 21, 2020
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- A Conversation With Former US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton | August 17, 2020 | 12:00 – 12:45 PM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council on Monday, August 17, 2020, from 12 p.m. to 12:45 p.m. EDT for a conversation featuring former US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Secretary Clinton’s experience from the Department of State, Senate, and the campaign trail makes her ideally suited to ponder the top foreign policy priorities in the next four years for the next presidential administration. The discussion will focus on America’s role in the world in the new decade and the future of US leadership, at an inflection point in history.
This special edition of the #ACFrontPage event series, launches the Atlantic Council’s Elections 2020: America’s Role in the World, a series of conversations on the top foreign policy priorities for the next four years, featuring the most prominent voices shaping the national dialogue. From the Conventions to the Elections, the series will explore key questions concerning America’s role and interests in the world, bringing a foreign policy perspective to the conversation and addressing the most critical issues at the intersection between the domestic and international spheres.
Speakers:
The Honorable Hillary Rodham Clinton: Former Secretary of State, United States of America
Fredrick Kempe: President & CEO, Atlantic Council - Afghanistan’s Future: Regional Perspectives on the Road Ahead | August 18, 2020 | 8:30 – 10:00 AM EST | Stimson Center | Register Here
Future outcomes in Afghanistan will be shaped for years to come by two key milestones: the withdrawal of U.S. troops and negotiations between the Afghan government and Taliban representatives. In this virtual panel discussion, contributors to a recent series on the future of Afghanistan in South Asian Voices, Stimson’s online magazine, will come together to share perspectives from across the region and explore how Afghanistan, the United States, Pakistan, India, and Iran might respond to a range of future scenarios.
Speakers:
Bismellah Alizada: Co-Founder, Rahila Foundation; Deputy Director, Organization for Policy Research & Development Studies (DROPS)
Fizza Batool: Doctoral Candidate, International Relations, University of Karachi
Neha Dwivedi: Research Analyst, Janes
Jumakhan Rahyab: Fulbright Graduate Fellow, University of Massachusetts
Saurav Sarkar: Research Associate, Center for Air Power Studies (New Delhi); South Asian Voices Visiting Fellow, Stimson Center
Elizabeth Threlkeld: Senior Fellow & Deputy Director of the South Asia Program, Stimson Center - Has Belarus Reached a Point of No Return? | August 18, 2020 | 11:00 – 11:45 AM EST | Center for Strategic & International Studies | Register Here
Following a stolen election which allowed 26-year strongman ruler Alexander Lukashenko to claim a landslide victory, tens of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets across more than 30 towns and cities to demand his resignation and new elections. Met with shocking brutality, armed police and interior ministry troops have been deployed by the thousands, indiscriminately attacking protestors and journalists with live and rubber bullets as well as flash grenades. Despite the violence, massive protests have continued into the week even as authorities disabled internet connections in the evenings and, as of August 12, detained more than 6,000 protestors.
The situation remains dynamic. Opposition challenger Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has fled to neighboring Lithuania under duress after conceding defeat in what appeared to be a forced televised address. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin, one of the first leaders to congratulate Lukashenko for his victory, hinted in his message that Moscow’s support for the embattled president may be contingent on Belarus’ further integration with Russia. The United States and European Union have condemned the crackdown, and EU foreign ministers are set to meet on August 14 to discuss targeted sanctions.
Has Belarus passed the point of no return where Lukashenko’s leadership is no longer tenable? Can the opposition movement inside the country continue without a leader? How might Russia respond in the event of an escalation in protests and Lukashenko’s departure? What are the implications for European security? How should the United States and European Union respond to these developments?
Speakers:
Valery Tsepkalo: Former Ambassador to the United States, Belarus; Candidate for President (2020), Belarus
Vladislav Inozemtsev: Non-Resident Senior Associate, CSIS
Heather A. Conley: Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, & the Arctic, CSIS - The Status of the Fight Against ISIS | August 18, 2020 | 12:00 PM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
ISIS has lost its territory in Syria and is no longer able to conduct large-scale internal or external attacks. Nonetheless, the organization has been able to regroup, continues to generate funds through its illicit activities, and has resumed low-level operations.
The United States and its partners must solidify gains against ISIS, particularly as the possibility looms of a further drawdown of US troops in Syria. Active combat against the group is winding down. It is now necessary to prevent a future ISIS resurgence by finding ways to keep up the pressure while also tackling the root causes of the wider unrest. What challenges remain for US and European policymakers in order to eliminate an ISIS revival? What support is still needed for local partners and communities to ensure they are not at risk from ISIS again?
Speakers:
Jomana Qaddour (Moderator): Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council
Jasmine El-Gamal: Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, Atlantic Council
Christopher Maier: Director, Defeat ISIS Task Force, Office of the Secretary of Defense, US Department of Defense
Robert Rhode: Ambassador for Negotiations on Syria & Head of Division for Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, & Anti-ISIS Strategy, German Federal Foreign Office - How the United States Can Use Force Short of War | August 19, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EST | Brookings Institution | Register Here
In their new book “Military Coercion and US Foreign Policy,” co-authors and Stimson Center experts Barry Blechman, James Siebens, and Melanie Sisson argue that during the Cold War, U.S. efforts to coerce other states using non-violent methods short of war failed as often as they succeeded. But unlike the Soviet Union, whose economy was stagnant and technology behind the West, in the coming years, the United States must contend with far more capable competitor powers. The book generates insight into how the U.S. military can be used to achieve policy goals. Specifically, it provides guidance about the ways in which, and the conditions under which, U.S. armed forces can work in concert with economic and diplomatic elements of U.S. power to create effective coercive strategies.
Speakers:
Michael E. O’Hanlon (Moderator): Director of Research, Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution
Barry Blechman: Distinguished Fellow, Stimson Center
Melanie Sisson: Non-Resident Fellow, Stimson Center - The Kashmir Conflict: A Year of Tumult | August 20, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM EST | Stimson Center | Register Here
Join USIP and the Stimson Center for a conversation, featuring Stimson South Asia Program Director Sameer Lalwani, focused on the tensions between India and Pakistan and prospects for resolving the bilateral dispute, as well as the domestic Kashmiri resistance and both the violent and non-violent movements within Kashmir that may challenge Indian attempts to reshape Kashmir’s status.
Speakers:
Happymon Jacob: Associate Professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University
Sameer Lalwani: Director, South Asia Program, Stimson Center
Tamanna Salikuddin: Director, South Asia Program, U.S. Institute of Peace - Protest Movements & Refugee Inclusion in Civil Society | August 21, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Protests in Iraq and Lebanon have drawn global attention as protestors advocate for political and economic reform and an end to corruption, especially in the wake of the Beirut blast and Lebanon’s disaster response. These countries also face economic crisis and socio-political challenges relating to the millions of refugees and IDPs within their borders and the lack of sustainable policies to address displaced people’s needs. In Lebanon and Iraq, refugees and IDPs face discrimination and lack of access to educational and public health resources in addition to the widespread economic pain and disenfranchisement that these countries protest movements aim to confront.
How have refugees in these countries been active in or left out of these movements? How can access gaps and discrimination be overcome to integrate refugee rights into these protest movements? How do protest movements reflect a desire to integrate refugees and IDPs into the social fabric of these countries?
Speakers:
Joyce Karam (Moderator): Washington Correspondent, The National
Sawsan Abdulrahmin: Associate Professor of Public Health, American University of Beirut
Noof Assi: Women’s Protection & Empowerment Coordinator, Emergency Response Team, International Rescue Committee; Co-Founder, IQ Peace
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Stevenson’s army, August 17
– Speaker Pelosi is calling the House back from recess to vote to “save the Postal Service.” This is mostly for show, of course, because the House has already passed, in May, the HEROES Act, with $25 Billion more for USPS. The Senate has never taken up the House bill.
– SecDef Esper ordered DOD planners to cut $2.2 billion in defense health care costs.
– Joint Doctrine planners envision a future battlefield with no lines on the map.
– Planned trade review talks with China were cancelled.
– Putin is ready to help Belarus.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Votes count
Belarusan President Lukashenko is facing the consequences of his effort to fake re-election with a claimed 80% of the vote. The country’s citizens know this result is fraudulent and are unwilling to accept it. His competitor, who more than likely won, has fled to Lithuania with her two children. Her husband remains in prison in Belarus, hostage to Lukashenko. Belarusans have no alternative but to take to the streets, where the security forces are beating and detaining them for further brutal mistreatment while in custody.
President Putin has backed Lukashenko, even though the Belarusan president has at times been less than a loyal ally to Moscow. A weakened and dependent Lukashenko is precisely what Moscow needs to impose its will. The EU and US have issued muffled protests of the treatment of protesters. Brussels has also called the elections “unfree and unfair,” but neither has unequivocally denounced the election outcome. The EU is hampered by its need for consensus among 27 member states, some of whose leaders have sympathy with Lukashenko. The US presumably doesn’t want to offend Russian President Putin.
President Trump is preparing for his own election fraud. He won’t be able to pull off the kind of ballot-box stuffing and fake tabulations that Lukashenko indulged in. American national elections are run by the states and local authorities. It wouldn’t do much good for Trump’s allies to fake election results in many “red” states because all that really matters is who wins: that state’s electoral votes (with few exceptions) go entirely to the winning candidate, who won’t be in doubt in truly red states. He wouldn’t be able to pull off fake results in “blue” states. And many “battleground” states are run by Democrats.
So what Trump is trying to do is to suppress voting, knowing that his supporters are on the whole more enthusiastic than his rival’s voters, many of whom are more anti-Trump than they are pro-Biden. Trump has said he opposes special funding for the US Postal Service (USPS) in order to make it harder for mail-in votes to arrive on time. His recently appointed head of USPS is trying to slow mail delivery, including by removing sorting machines from many post offices.
I doubt this effort to suppress voting will succeed. Americans like their post office and postal workers are part of the communities they deliver ballots to and from. I expect the workers, whether they favor Democrats or Republicans, to make every effort to deliver the ballots on time.
But that will not entirely defeat Donald Trump’s purposes. He knows full well that many, perhaps most, Americans will prefer to vote by mail during a pandemic. He knows the postal workers will do their best to deliver the ballots. What he is trying to do is not only slow the mail but lay the basis for rejecting the election results. Mail-in ballots, he claims, are subject to fraud. They require far more time and effort to count, so there will be a delay in announcing results. He will use that delay as well as his campaign to cast doubt on their validity, claiming that results are being falsified.
I don’t expect this gambit to work better for Trump than Lukashenko’s worked in Belarus. But it could lead to big street protests in the days during which the election outcome is uncertain. Trump has made clear in Portland in recent months what he intends to do about those: he will unleash poorly trained Federal agents to provoke violence, which will give him the excuse to deploy more. We’ll see counter-protests as well, with further violence the inevitable consequence.
So it is vital that Americans who want to see the end of Trump do everything they can to vote early if by mail and in person if not, even despite the virus in battleground states.
Trump of course has other tricks to foil Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. He is suggesting she is not eligible to be Vice President or President because her parents were not citizens, even though she was born in Oakland, California. This is discredited and racist drivel, but so too is Trump’s claim that mail-in ballots are subject to fraud. In the end, what counts are votes.
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Peace Picks | August 10 – August 14
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Breakthrough in Belarus: A Democratic Opening | August 11, 2020 | 10:00 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
After months of protests, Belarusians cast their votes on August 9 for the presidential election. The five-term president of Belarus, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, faces the most severe threat to his regime since he took power more than a quarter century ago. For months, protests erupted after opposition candidates were either imprisoned or disqualified. Undeterred by mass arrests and fines, opposition forces rallied against Lukashenka’s government and the immediate election results. Government-sponsored exit polls showing that President Lukashenka won 80 percent of the vote face broad claims of election fraud, triggering further protests and a heavy police crackdown.
The situation is further complicated by the arrest of alleged Russian operatives in Minsk, sparking wild speculation of foreign intervention. Will claims of interference by Lukashenka succeed in distracting the public, or will he use them as a pretext for a crackdown? Will the outcome of the election change Belarus’ politics? How will the results affect Belarus’ relations with Europe, Russia, and the United States? Can popular will bring about a genuinely democratic transition in spite of government crackdowns on dissent and free information?
Speakers:
Christian Caryl (Moderator): Editor, Washington Post
Konstantin Eggert: Columnist, Deutsche Welle
Natalia Kaliada: Co-Founding Artistic Director & CEO, Belarus Free Theatre
Hanna Liubakova: Journalist, Outriders
Franak Viacorka: Vice President, Digital Communications Network - Lebanon After the Explosion | August 11, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EST | Carnegie Endowment | Register Here
A massive explosion in Beirut shattered glass miles away, killing more than 100, wounding thousands, and leaving hundreds of thousands homeless. Now Lebanon finds itself in a severe political, economic, and humanitarian crisis. How can the people of Beirut rebuild their lives while still sheltering from a global pandemic? What are the immediate political and economic implications of this pivotal moment in Lebanese history, and what political change is necessary for true recovery to be possible?
Speakers:
Kim Ghattas: Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment
Maha Yahya: Director, Carnegie Middle East Center
Paul Salem: President, Middle East Institute
Ishac Diwan: Chaire d’Excellence, Université Paris Science et Lettres - President Tsai Ing-wen Discusses the Diplomatic, Security, and Economic Challenges Facing Taiwan | August 12, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM EST | Hudson Institute & Center for American Progress | Register Here
Join Hudson Institute and Center for American Progress for an address by Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen followed by a discussion with Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office Representative Bi-khim Hsiao, Hudson Senior Fellow Seth Cropsey, and Center for American Progress Vice President Kelly Magsamen.
In January of this year, President Tsai won reelection to a second term. Since then, Taiwan has controlled the spread of its coronavirus outbreak, assisted other countries in combatting the pandemic, and faced increasing aggression from the Chinese Communist Party.
President Tsai will discuss these developments and the security, diplomatic, and economic challenges that face Taiwan in her second term. The conversation following President Tsai’s remarks will incorporate themes from her speech and address current U.S. policy and assistance toward Taiwan.
Speakers:
President Tsai Ing-wen: President, Republic of China (Taiwan)
Bi-khim Hsiao: Representative, Taipei Economic & Cultural Office in the U.S.
Seth Cropsey: Director, Center for American Seapower, Hudson Institute
Kelly Magsamen: Vice President, National Security & International Policy, Center for American Progress
Neera Tanden: President & CEO, Center for American Progress
John Walters: COO, Hudson Institute - How ISIS Really Ends: The Road to Violent Extremist Disengagement & Reconciliation | August 12, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM EST | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
ISIS remains a threat to regional and global security despite its territorial defeat in March 2019. The enduring defeat of ISIS will require more work to address the aftermath of conflict and to rebuild the region’s social fabric to enable people to move forward sustainably and peacefully. Of immediate concern is what to do with former ISIS combatants and their families, and the massive needs for disengagement, repatriation, and reintegration.
With thousands of former ISIS combatants from over 50 countries detained in prisons across Syria and Iraq and countless women and children in displacement camps—with nearly 70,000 in al Hol alone—countries worldwide face the difficult task of what to do with these individuals and how best to prevent future security challenges.
Meanwhile, the global COVID-19 pandemic is impacting the health and safety of those in the prisons and camps, as well as the ability of foreign governments, humanitarian organizations, and camp and prison administrations to continue operations. ISIS adherents have capitalized on this disruption by staging prison breakouts. This combination of stresses provides for an especially complicated set of tasks for governments, local communities, and the international community.
Speakers:
Nancy Lindborg (Moderator): President & CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
Leanne Erdberg Steadman (Moderator): Director of Countering Violent Extremism, U.S. Institute of Peace
Amb. William “Bill” Roebuck: Deputy Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS; Senior Advisor to the Special Representative for Syria Engagement
Philippa Candler: Acting UNHCR Representative, Iraq
Maj. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich: Director of Operations, U.S. Central Command
Azadeh Moaveni: Project Director, Gender, International Crisis Group
Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr.: Commander, U.S. Central Command - Gen. John E. Hyten on Progress & Challenges Implementing the National Defense Strategy | August 12, 2020 | 12:00 – 12:45 PM EST | Hudson Institute | Register Here
Join Hudson Institute for a discussion with Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General John E. Hyten on the Department of Defense’s progress in implementing the National Defense Strategy and remaining challenges. Hudson Senior Fellow Rebeccah L. Heinrichs will moderate the discussion.
Amid an ongoing pandemic, the United States is faced with a broad ranges of security challenges. Responding to the long-term threat posed by China and Russia continues to be the greatest animating force of U.S. defense policy. However, the U.S. faces other serious threats from terrorist groups and rogue states like North Korea and Iran.
General Hyten will describe how the National Defense Strategy is guiding major power competition and working to mitigate and defeat lesser threats.
How has the strategy affected force size, strategy, and deployments? What role do alliances play in achieving the priorities laid out in the national defense strategy? Are we moving at the right speed to develop and produce at scale the kinds of weapon systems we need?
General Hyten will answer these and other questions as he outlines accomplishments and the remaining work ahead.
Speakers:
Gen. John E. Hyten: Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Rebeccah L. Heinrichs: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute - Drug Trafficking and Use in Libya & North Africa | August 14, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EST | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
The trafficking and consumption of illicit drugs both within and through Libya are often overlooked as factors in the country’s fragile situation. But the dynamics of illicit drug trading and use in Libya are just one manifestation of the rising drug challenge faced by North African states. Production, trafficking, and consumption are increasing and transforming across the region, posing a rising challenge to stability, security, and public health in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya.
Join USIP and the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) for a presentation of recently published research on drug issues in the region. USIP experts will discuss their research on drug trafficking and consumption in Libya, while GI-TOC experts will analyze trends in the Maghreb as a whole. The event will bring together policymakers and practitioners to explore the dynamics of these issue areas and what can be done to deal with the harmful effects while mitigating harm to communities.
Speakers:
Nate Wilson (Moderator): Libya Country Manager, U.S. Institute of Peace
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