Tag: Biden transition
Stevenson’s army, January 25
NYT sees global links of far-right groups.
NYT also reports on China’s challenge to US in space. But their story is so long, they added a “takeaways” summary.
But US still sees a role for B52s.
WSJ notes China surpassed US in FDI last year.
Politico says OMB was “broken” by Trump politics.
Some Democrats want to pass stimulus bill by filibuster-proof reconciliation process. Punchbowl notes that takes a long time, starting with a budget resolution, first in 3 years. CRS has a new backgrounder.
Jim Fallows assesses the Biden inaugural address.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 24
-WaPo notes that the Senate is still stymied by a failure to agree on new organizing resolution.
-NPR interviewed former Senate staffer Adam Jentleson about his new book condemning the filibuster. [Many of you know that I support the filibuster for strategic and tactical reasons, but I want to keep it safe, legal, and rare — by making it harder to start and prolong. I suggest filibuster opponents, now mostly Democrats, consider that the loss of just one Democratic Senator could, overnight, permit majoritarian rule by the GOP.]
WSJ now confirms what NYT and WaPo also learned — that Trump was narrowly stopped from using Justice to overturn the election results.
Vanity Fair reports Trump’s pressure on the acting SecDef in the final days.
TR does a FONOP.
I’ve long viewed Sen. Tom Cotton [R-Ark.] as Dean Acheson did Sen. Robert Taft [GOP leader in early 1950s]: “He has a brilliant mind, until he makes it up.” It seems that Cotton gilded his military resume.
NYT notes we have a serious GPS vulnerability problem.
Good read: I’ve just finished Peter Westwick’s fascinating study of the history of stealth technology. Like Paul Kennedy’s book on the problem-solving engineers of WW2, Westwick shows how middle-level technicians brainstormed, bargained, and compromised over issues and largely succeeded. I’ve also never seen a better case for funding alternate R&D programs instead of settling on a sole source.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 22
Charlie Stevenson’s writes: “So what do you do when you see a picture of yourself — from 40 years ago — on the homepage of the New York Times?
Share it, of course.” If you don’t know who the person in the foreground is, you are young:
Both House & Senate voted overwhelmingly for the waiver for Austin to be SecDef; Senate vote to confirm will come Friday 1030. Fred Kaplan explains why.
NPR says many veterans were part of attack on the Capitol.
As expected, administration seeks extension of New START, which doesn’t require Senate approval.
Steve Coll warns of problems facing Biden in Afghanistan.
Last week I sent NYT article questioning the promise of hypersonic weapons. Here’s the study on which that was based.
Just Security has some good ideas for a new AUMF.
A bit of history: how a 1930s populist got de-platformed.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Unity isn’t what it sounds like, but two new states would help
The main theme of Joe Biden’s inauguration as 46th President was unity. He repeatedly appealed to it, as did others who came to the podium. But what does it really mean?
It can’t mean unanimity. In a democracy, disagreement, dissent, and debate are the norm, not the exception. If “reaching across the aisle” is to be a reality, on most issues it will mean bringing a few from the other side over to vote with the Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. Most Democrats and most Republicans won’t agree on most things, which is why we have Democrats and Republicans.
Nor can “unity” mean reconciling with the most extreme forces. No one is suggesting that the rioters of the 1/6 insurrection are part of whatever is meant by unity. Many are felons who belong in prison rather than in a political dialogue. Nor are those in Congress who de facto supported the insurrection with their votes against accepting the election results a force to be unified with. One of them has already filed impeachment charges against Biden, for his son’s alleged misdeeds. That won’t go anywhere, but there is no bridge to be built in that direction.
Biden did not specify what he meant by unity, but I think I know. He means agreement on the rules of the political game. That’s where things went haywire in the 2020 election and its aftermath. Republicans refused to accept many of the election procedures, even in states where they control the legislature and the electoral mechanism like Georgia and Arizona. After failing in more than five dozen court challenges, they continued to deny the validity of the election results. Their votes against certifying the electoral votes in the House and Senate were the last straw, especially following the attack on The Capitol.
The strife over electoral procedures and results is going to get worse, not better, despite Biden. Covid-19 created an obvious need for more readily accessible voting, by drop box and mail. Republicans will try to get rid of that accessibility before the 2022 election by requiring voter IDs, limiting absentee voting, and eliminating same-day registration. Reacting to one version of the Covid-19 relief bill the Democrats proposed, Trump himself said this:
The things they had in there were crazy. They had things, levels of voting that if you’d ever agreed to it, you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again,
The proof is in the pudding: Trump lost to Biden by almost 7 million votes, more than twice the margin of popular votes by which he lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016. Four years hence, given the aging of the Republican base and the Democratic predilections of younger people, that margin could be even larger. This makes the Electoral College, where a difference of 44,000 votes in three states could have given Trump victory, a growing problem.
But it can’t be solved readily. The more immediate, and less difficult, issue is the Senate, where the 50 Republican members represent 41 million fewer people than the 50 Democratic members. This is crazy. But there are some partial solutions readily available: admit the District of Columbia (whose 700,000 residents would be represented by two senators and one member of the House) and Puerto Rico (whose 3.2 million residents would be represented by two senators and four or five members of the House). Both the District and Puerto Rico have voted in favor of statehood. The District would become the [Frederick] Douglas Commonwealth (hence still DC).
It takes only a majority vote in both Houses to admit a new state, but in the Senate this proposition would face the filibuster, which can be overcome only with 60 (out of 100) votes. The filibuster has been abolished for particular issues (most Federal appointments and Supreme Court Justices), so why not do it for admission of new states to the Union? That is a narrowly defined category. There are four more US territories (other than PR), but the largest of them is Guam, with 168,000 people. Even if the other territories want statehood, their odds of getting 50% of the Senate to agree to it are minimal.
The House and Senate Democrats could do worse than put DC and PR statehood at the top of their priority list. Admission to the Union would partially redress gross inequities and give the residents of both places the voices in Congress that their numbers merit. The Republicans will vote against, but once admitted they will be compelled to do what they don’t do now: try to win the votes of nearly 4 million people they now ignore. That would be a most welcome kind of unity.
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Stevenson’s army, September 20
-No surprises in hearings for several Biden nominees. SecState nominee Blinken deftly sidestepped controversy.
Mister Lloyd Austin promised to surround himself with civilians. But the Biden people are worried about “deep state” Trump loyalists.– Example, Michael Ellis.– Another example, administration refusal to cooperate with transition teams.
In the Senate, the leaders have agreed to the 50/50 power sharing agreement from 2001 — except Leader McConnell demands promise not to end filibuster. McConnell did, however, accuse Trump of lies about the election and provoking the riot. And the FBI says some rioters plotted violence in advance and coordinated in real-time during attacks. More from BuzzFeed.
While troop levels are down Stars and Stripes notes US still has 18,000 contractors in Afghanistan. Marc Ambinder warns of new challenges for the Secret Service.
Researchers note: at noon Wednesday, the Trump whitehouse.gov materials will move to an archived site, like the one for the Obama administration. [No Tweets, just official materials]
Navalny people release report about Putin’s Palace on the Black Sea.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Bid farewell to the treasons of Trump
It’s been hard, but we’ve almost made it to the other side. Now comes a time for rebuilding, or in Biden terms building back better.
Domestic issues will take first priority: the epidemic, the economy, social cleavages. Biden will need to get a lot more needles into arms, a lot more jobs returned and created, a lot of injustices to black and brown people, immigrants, women, college students, and LGBTQ people rectified. Trump’s white supremacist and 2nd Amendment supporters need to know that LAW AND ORDER applies to them as well as to everyone else. Successful prosecution of the January 6 insurrectionists is critical, including an eventual conviction of Trump in the Senate.
Current Majority Leader McConnell is not only open to that possibility but has blamed Trump for provoking the January 6 insurrection:
The mob was fed lies.
This is important, as it opens the a possibility of purging Trumpism from the Republican Party and eventually also from the Senate and House. Remnants will persist, but American politics will return to a much better place if Republicans and Democrats once again come to share a common factual basis rather than being distracted constantly by Trump’s lies.
International issues will be in capable hands at the State Department, National Security Council, and the Defense Department. But they can’t do everything at once. The early moves have been telegraphed: re-entry into the Iran nuclear deal (hard) and the Paris climate agreement (easy) as well as an effort to negotiate with Russia extended limits on strategic nuclear weapons. But the enemy also gets a vote on priorities. Surprise challenges could come from North Korea, China, or Islamist extremists. Those should not distract the Bidenists from their chosen path: to restore American leadership on a multilateral basis and make the world order more rules-based than it has been for the last four years.
My own focus is on what this means for the Balkans and the Middle East.
In the Balkans it is clear: Washington needs to develop a common vision with the European Union and its member states, then implement it with vigor to stem the tide of Russian and Chinese influence and hasten the day when the countries of the region will all qualify for accession to the EU.
In the Middle East, the way forward is far less clear, because the region lacks a clear direction and American interest has declined. I might prefer that the US favor democracy and human rights, but the fact is there are few Middle East countries in which we’ll find much prospect of either. The trick will be cooperating with autocratic friends (read Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and others) without encouraging their human rights abuses. Biden is already committed, as I understand it, to ending US support for the war in Yemen, which will displease Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
The Israel/Palestine equation will be particularly difficult to solve, as Trump has intentionally lessened the prospects for the two-state solution America has favored. Biden won’t want to reverse the move of the US Embassy to Jerusalem, and the so-called Abrahamic accords between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain he welcomed. But he could tilt in favor of the Palestinians by renewing US contributions to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) and re-establishing a consulate in East Jerusalem, making it clear it will become an embassy once a Palestinian state is formed and recognized.
The world will be watching. Expectations of Biden are high. Disappointments and failures are inevitable, but I do hope America can return to its proper role as a leader in the democratic world!
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