Tag: Brazil
Stevenson’s army, October 21
– Israeli defense minister has a 3 point plan for Gaza.
– Biden administration has cautioned Israel on its plans.
– WH explains its new budget request. Here’s the letter.
– Here’s excerpt from new book on Lumumba killing.
– SAIS grad Rafael Kruchin explains Brazil reaction to Hamas.
And via Adam Tooze, look at this 1932 picture of Manhattan:
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, July 2
I neglected to post this particularly interesting edition yesterday:
This really should be celebrated as America’s independence day. [More below]
But first, NYT reports new Biden policy on drone strikes. They even have declassified documents on the strikes and on counterterrorism strategy.
– WSJ tells how Brazil helps Russia infiltrate spies in US.
History lesson: The 4th of July really ought to be celebrated on the 2nd, for it was on July 2, 1776, that the Continental Congress voted, 12 states for, none against, that the colonies “are, and of right ought to be, free and independent states.” The next day, John Adams wrote to his wife, “The second day of July, 1776, will be the most memorable epocha in the history of America. I am apt to believe that it will be celebrated by succeeding generations as the great anniversary Festival…. It ought to be solemnized with bonfires and illuminations, from one end of this continent to the other….
In fact, the 3rd and 4th of July were taken up with debate and amendments to the 1,338-word explanation written by Thomas Jefferson and a small committee. A vote approving the text was taken on the 4th, but the actual parchment was not signed until August 2. That document used the July 4 date, and we’ve been stuck with it ever since.
There’s another reason for celebrating July 2 — for it was on that date, eleven years later in the same building in Philadelphia, that the Constitutional Convention broke its deadlock over how to organize the new government. Virginia had proposed proportional representation by population, including slaves. The small states, led by New Jersey proposed equal representation of the states in Congress. The debate and defeat of various plans left many small state delegates angry and frustrated, and drove the convention to the verge of collapse. Many considered leaving the convention if their rights were not protected. Delegates on both sides became more heated and intransigent.
The small states had a point. The three largest states of Virginia, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts had 45% of the U.S. population and would need only one other state to have a working majority over all other states. On many issues the three most southern states – Georgia and the Carolinas – sided with the big three. Though small at the time, they all expected to grow much larger and saw such an informal alliance as helpful to their other interests.
On July 2, 1787, Oliver Ellsworth of Connecticut pressed his resolution for equal representation in the Senate, but with some absentees and some still unexplained vote switches, the delegates tied on the question. That was a parliamentary defeat for the small states, but a game-changing, emotional victory because it kept alive their alternative. On reflection, other delegates realized that this issue of Senate composition could destroy any chance at government reform. They agreed to turn the question over to a committee, and three days later, the committee recommended equal votes in the Senate. At the end of the tumultuous week, the delegates approved the plan.
This broke the logjam on other issues as well. With small state rights protected, their delegates were more willing to strengthen the executive and the central government. By mid-July, delegates agreed on a single executive and gave him veto power.
Those are two strong reasons for venerating and celebrating July 2 — with “bonfires and illuminations” and good beer. Maybe you even want to celebrate twice.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 13
I had planned, in next week’s class on the media, to say that most US leaks on foreign policy come from 3 sources: [1] administration officials launching trial balloons; [2] losers in the interagency fights who want to rally opponents; and [3] whistleblowers who want to expose some terrible government activities. According to WaPo, however, the leaker of recent highly classified documents was a 4th type — the Showoff who wants to demonstrate his inside knowledge. WaPo has tracked down the leaker, who seems to be a youg man in his 20s, working on a military base, who is an enthusiast about guns and gaming. No other apparent agenda.
Other reports based on the leaks say: Ukraine war is headed for stalemate.
– There’s lots of infighting among Russian officials.
– Serbia denies sending arms to Ukraine.
– Politico explains why the leaks went undetected for so long.
-NYT explains why Brazil won’t help Ukraine.
SAIS prof Cancian analyzes the service wish lists.
Atlantic Council has expert report on defense innovation. Document here.
NYT notes unrestrained behavior when strong partisan control of state legislatures.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 9
– The House votes today on a package of rules for the 118th Congress. Much of it is public, but Punchbowl News reports there is a secret 3 page addendum.
The rules package was at the center of McCarthy’s fight for the speakership. The 55-page document lays out the GOP priorities for the next two years and the procedures Republicans will use to run the chamber.
However, there’s also a secret three-page addendum that McCarthy and his allies hashed out during several days of grueling negotiations with the House Freedom Caucus. This pact includes the most controversial concessions McCarthy made in order to become speaker – three seats on the Rules Committee for conservatives, freezing spending at FY2022 levels, a debt-ceiling strategy, coveted committee assignments and more.
WSJ confirms the plan includes defense spending cuts.
A sobering piece in Foreign Affairs warns that the US faces “a period of protracted regime instability, marked by repeated constitutional crises, heightened political violence, and possibly, periods of authoritarian rule.”
Sweden says it can’t meet Turkish demands for NATO membership.
Politico says Wagner Group is active in Europe and Africa.
Military Times summarizes the year of US strikes in Somalia.
WaPo says social media helped bring out the violent mobs in Brasilia.
I don’t normally see the Washington Monthly, but it has released its latest edition,which looks to have some interesting reads.
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A lot to fear this Halloween, but…
The tragic and deadly stampede in Seoul during a Halloween celebration reminds us that there are real things to fear this year. Here is my list:
- Russian President Putin’s desperate efforts to prevent defeat in Ukraine.
- Chinese President Xi’s equally desperate efforts to exert hegemony in East Asia before his country’s inevitable demographic and likely economic decline.
- A delegitimized American election November 8, leading to more political violence.
- A deep recession that renews identity-based populism.
Putin’s last stand
Russian forces in Ukraine are retreating. The Ukrainian Army routed them in the northeast. In the south, the Russians are holding, but just barely. Ukraine’s air and sea drone attack on Russian naval ships in the Black Sea was a success. But it prompted Moscow to suspend the agreement that allowed export of Ukrainian grain. That will reduce revenue to Kyiv and jack up food prices in many of the most food insecure parts of the world.
Moscow has accused Kyiv of planning a “dirty bomb” attack using radioactive material. This is not a credible accusation, but it likely reflects what the Russians themselves are thinking of doing. The ultimate Russian threat is use of nuclear weapons. Putin has implied as much. That would bring a US conventional response of massive proportions. It can’t be ruled out, because the decisions of a single person are always subject to uncertainty. But it would spell the end of the Russian Army in Ukraine. Putin doesn’t want that.
Xi’s danger zone
Hal Brands and Michael Beckley argue in their new book that the threat from China to US regional and global hegemony will peak in the 2020s. After that Beijing will be preoccupied with internal demographic, social, and economic problems. Impending decline, after a long period of advance, will motivate Xi to challenge the US sooner rather than later. Xi consolidated autocratic power at the recent 20th Communist Party Congress. There will be few checks and balances to offset his inclinations.
We’ve seen in Ukraine how catastrophic the decisions of one man can be. We saw it also in George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq, which went virtually uncontested within the US. China has already swallowed Macau and Hong Kong. Xi wants to do likewise with Taiwan. But Taiwan is vital to the US capability of protecting its allies in East Asia, in particular South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines. The US would need to do its best to support Taiwan. A China/Taiwan war will make the stakes in Ukraine, and the violence, seem relatively small.
The American election at risk
On November 8 the US will go to the polls to elect a new House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate, in addition to many state and local officials. Right-wing election deniers are threatening the integrity of the election in many ways. These include disinformation about the process, threats against voters and election officials, and election officials and candidates who themselves are deniers and prepared to tip the balance. There is a real risk of violence if the election returns Democratic majorities to either the House or Senate, or both. There is also a real risk that Democrats will view Republican wins as illegitimate, though electoral violence from the left is less likely.
This election has significance beyond November 8. It is a dress rehearsal for 2024, when the election-denier-in-chief, Donald Trump, hopes to return as the Republican candidate for President. If he does, it is hard to picture a peaceful election. It is likely he will be indicted for national security violations and possibly also for tax fraud before 2024. Justified though those indictments may be, they will not improve the prospects for stability in the next two years.
An impending recession
The Federal Reserve Bank has been raising interest rates sharply to curb inflation, which has peaked around 8% on a yearly basis. While the US labor market is still tight and modest growth continues, the rest of the world is heading into a recession. The strong dollar, the war in Ukraine, and tension in East Asia are major factors. It is hard to believe that a global downturn won’t come home to roost in the US as well.
Inflation has already become a major issue in the November 8 election campaign. But if a recession hits in 2023, as many predict, the 2024 election could also be affected. Republican prospects will be better if Trump is not the candidate, but in any event American elections are often a referendum on the economy. An aging President Biden will find it hard to get re-elected if the downturn persists into 2024.
Scary Halloween
It’s a scary Halloween, even without the masks. But the defeat of President Bolsonaro in Brazil is a contrary indicator. Let’s hope it is an early indication that prospects are better than they appear!
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Stevenson’s army, February 17
– Dan Drezner discusses loss of trust in US military.
– Reuters says Biden wants big increase in defense spending.
– WaPo says Bolsonaro moves closer to Putin.
–US & Russian planes come too close in Med.
– FredKaplan notes tradeoffs in possible Russian recognition of Donbas.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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