Tag: Brazil
Democracy on the defensive, but not lost yet
I read the Biden/Putin phone call on Tuesday and the Summit of Democracies differently from many others. The former was a clear even if not conclusive win for the US. The latter is more equivocal.
President Putin went into the phone call having mounted most of an invasion force and demanding a binding legal prohibition on Ukraine joining NATO. He came out accepting an official-level dialogue with Washington on European security. That is a win for Biden, even if the invasion force remains in place for now. Moscow will continue at the dialogue to demand a commitment that Ukraine not join NATO, but the Americans won’t yield on that.
Ironically, the best guarantee that Kiev won’t join NATO lies in the current NATO members, few of whom are prepared to take on an obligation to defend Ukraine from Russian aggression. Redoubling the irony: Putin’s mounting of an invasion force has convinced any loyal Ukrainian that NATO membership is highly desirable. That makes two own goals for Putin: he has spent a fortune on an invasion force that was unnecessary and counterproductive.
The Summit of Democracies convening remotely today is harder to judge. It is one more sign of what we already know: democracy is under attack both in the US and in many places abroad. The Republican campaign against the validity of the 2020 US election and Republican legislation limiting the franchise in many states have cast doubt on whether the US can survive as a democracy. Events in Myanmar, Sudan, Belarus, Ethiopia, Afghanistan, and other places have cast more than doubts. Democracy in all those places has suffered severe setbacks in the past year. Not to mention Russia, Serbia, Hungary, Brazil, and other countries that are suffering longer-term erosion of at least semi-democratic institutions and processes. Not to mention the survival of long-standing authoritarian regimes in Syria, Jordan, the Gulf, China, Thailand, and Vietnam.
What good can the Summit of Democracies do? It is difficult to judge. I suppose preparations for it in countries invited and reactions to it in countries not invited may marginally increase pressure for upholding democratic values. Certainly Washington is well aware of its own limitations as a leader of the democratic world and convener of the Summit. The Biden Administration isn’t doing all it might, as it has hesitated to eliminate the anti-democratic filibuster in order to pass Federal voting rights legislation, but it is prosecuting January 6 rioters and suing states that limit voting rights in Federal court.
There is a possibility that some would-be authoritarians in other places will find themselves pressured and even on the ropes, but the overall trend appears to be in their direction. Authoritarians have learned how to weather less draconian political environments, as totalitarian control has become far more difficult due to modern communications and social media. They have also learned how to help each other survive, in order to avoid any domino effects, especially among neighbors. The pendulum has swung in the authoritarian direction, due in part to the corona virus epidemic and the consequent economic slowdown as well as the rallying cries of ethnic/sectarian/linguistic/racial nationalists.
The pendulum can also swing in the other direction, but the Summit looks incapable of making that happen. A successful Russian invasion of Ukraine, or US agreement to block Ukraine from NATO membership, would make things much worse than they already are. Democracy is on the defensive, but not lost yet.
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Two does not a trend make, but there is hope
Two so-called populist, definitely corrupt, would-be autocrats have fallen: Trump and Netanyahu. What are the prospects for others of their ilk?
- Indian President Narendra Modi has declined markedly in popularity, mainly due to COVID-19. The epidemic is beginning to ebb in India and he doesn’t face an election until 2024, so it is impossible to predict his fate.
- Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is in a less comfortable spot. The epidemic has hit Hungary hard and tanked its economy, but he is offering lots of goodies in advance of next year’s parliamentary elections. His party is still strong, but the opposition is more united than in the past.
- Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is in worse shape, due to the virus and the economy. If former President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva returns to the hustings, Bolsonaro could be in big trouble come next year’s presidential election.
- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is not in much better condition. Turkey was already in economic trouble before the epidemic, which has hit hard. The opposition, not fully unified, is gaining on him but the presidential election is still far off: June 2023.
- And for the sake of my Balkan readers, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic looks to be in good shape for next year’s presidential election, as the opposition is fragmented and he moved quickly to secure Chinese and Russian vaccines. Nor is there much hope of seeing the back of Bosnia’s Serb President Milorad Dodik, who has lost some traction but likely still has enough grip to hold on in next year’s polls. Both are enjoying lots of Russian financing and protection while Europe and the US twiddle their thumbs, uncertain what to do.
The already autocrats are in better shape:
- Chinese President Xi Jinping has done likewise and has no limit on how long he can serve.
- Russian President Vladimr Putin is holding his own, despite COVID-19. In any event, he is already eliminating any serious opposition to his hold on power in the next presidential election, which isn’t due until 2024.
- Iranian Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini is firmly in charge. The presidential election Friday includes no “opposition” or even bona fide moderates. Repression and cooptation have won the day.
- Syrian President Bashar al Assad has survived a decade of both moderate and extremist rebellion. He is now nominally in charge of perhaps 40% of Syria, but his regime is tattered and in desperate need of rebuilding.
- Belarusan President Alexander Lukashenko is weathering massive demonstrations and depends for his survival on Putin, whose efforts to jail or otherwise eliminate any serious opposition Lukashenko imitates.
- Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar’s coup leader, is trying to do likewise, despite persistent demonstrations.
President Biden has devoted his week in Europe to rallying the G7 to the cause of demonstrating that they can deliver for citizens better than the autocracies. Next week he’ll do the same with the broader audience of NATO allies before confronting Putin. The American economy is reviving rapidly if somewhat sporadically. The G7 has committed itself to a billion vaccine doses for poorer countries, improved public health preparations, and worldwide infrastructure efforts to counter China’s Belt and Road.
I don’t really have much hope that the autocrats will fall, even if Biden demonstrates unequivocally the superiority of liberal democracy. That’s not how the world works. Autocrats are autocrats in order to prevent that outcome. But the fall of a few more populist and corrupt would-be autocrats is certainly not out of the question. The world would be a lot better off if their citizens opted for true democracy. Two does not a trend make, but there is hope.
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Stevenson’s army, March 31
-Blinken broadens human rights categories.
-But keeps some of Trump’s Taiwan moves.
– Human rights report released. The text is here.
– NYT says the Taliban believe they’ve won.
– Top military quit in Brazil.
-Politico says CISA is in bad shape.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | November 9 – November 13, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- The Future of Transatlantic Policy Towards Russia | November 9, 2020 | 9:00 – 9:45 AM ET | CSIS | Register Here
Please join CSIS and the Centre for Polish-Russian Dialogue and Understanding (CPRDU) for a conversation with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen E. Biegun and Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Marcin Przydacz on strengthening the transatlantic relationship amid today’s shifting geostrategic landscape of great power competition and a global pandemic in order to counter the foreign and security policy challenges posed by Russia.
This conversation begins a four-part series of discussions as part of the ninth annual Transatlantic Forum on Russia which will discuss the impact of geostrategic competition on the international system, growing domestic unrest in Russia, and the future of European energy security.
Speakers:
Stephen E. Biegun: U.S. Deputy Secretary of State
Marcin Przydacz: Polish Deputy Foreign Minister
Ernest Wyciszkiewicz: Director, Centre for Polish-Russian Dialogue and Understanding
2. Election 2020: State of Play and Implications | November 10, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:00 PM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
As many predicted, the 2020 election results were not finalized on Election Day. Voter turnout surged across the country, with record participation numbers that shattered levels from previous years. More than 100 million people voted early nationwide, and the country is on track for the highest turnout in more than a century.
Donald Trump and Joe Biden remain neck and neck in a handful of battleground states that have yet to declare a winner. Some House races across the country remain undecided, and control of the Senate hangs in the balance. Results have been trickling in slowly but mounting legal action and false accusations of voting fraud threaten to further delay the results.
On November 10, Governance Studies at Brookings will host a webinar examining the results of the 2020 election. Panelists will analyze state-by-state outcomes, voter turnout trends, election administration, implications for future policy implementation, and the stakes for American democracy.
Speakers:
Darrell M. West, moderator: Vice President and Director – Governance StudiesSenior Fellow – Center for Technology Innovation
Camille Busette: Senior Fellow – Economic Studies, Governance Studies, Metropolitan Policy ProgramDirector – Race, Prosperity, and Inclusion Initiative
John Hudak: Deputy Director – Center for Effective Public ManagementSenior Fellow – Governance Studies
Elaine Kamarck: Founding Director – Center for Effective Public ManagementSenior Fellow – Governance Studies
Molly E. Reynolds: Senior Fellow – Governance Studies
3. Myanmar’s Post-Election Future: A New Beginning? | November 10, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM ET | Stimson Center | Register Here
In Myanmar’s upcoming general elections, Aung Sang Suu Kyi’s ruling party, the NLD, is widely expected to emerge victorious. Nevertheless, since the party came to power in 2015, it has faced numerous international challenges.
During these pivotal times for Myanmar, join East Asia Program Co-Director Yun Sun, Ambassador U Aung Lynn, Dr. Aung Naing Oo, and Priscilla Clapp in a post-election virtual discussion unpacking the results and what they mean for the future of the peace process, the Rohingya crisis, and Myanmar’s relationship with the world.
Speakers:
U Aung Lynn: Ambassador to the United States from Myanmar
Dr. Aung Naing Oo: Executive Director of Center for Peace and Reconciliation
Priscilla Clapp: Senior Advisor, USIP; former U.S. Chargé d’Affaires in Yangon
4. Election Cycle United States and Brazil: The Impact of the 2020 Elections for Brazil | November 10, 2020 | 4:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The American and municipal presidential elections in Brazil adapted to the new reality of COVID-19. In addition to voting by mail in the U.S. and changing the election date in Brazil, Brazilian municipal elections are also the first to follow changes established by the 2019 Electoral Reform and following historic presidential elections in Brazil in 2018.
In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic recession and continuous polarization, what parallels can we establish between the American and Brazilian elections? How can the outcome of the American elections impact the future of bilateral relations with Brazil? How can these elections impact the Brazilian response to coronavirus and low economic growth?
Speakers:
Maurício Moura: President, Idea Big Data
Patrícia Campos Mello: Journalist, Folha de S. Paulo
Bruno Carazza: Professor, Ibmec and Fundação Dom Cabral;Columnist, Valor Econômico
Suelma Rosa: Director of Government Relations, Dow Brasil; President, Irelgov
Roberta Braga: Deputy Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
5. Running to Stand Still? The Impact of the United Nations in the Middle East, 75 Years On | November 11, 2020 | 4:00 – 5:15 PM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
In its 75th year, the United Nations (U.N.) faces immense challenges in its mission to promote peace and security around the world. During the September 2020 General Assembly meeting, the U.N. reaffirmed its commitment to multilateralism as a means to address the world’s problems. But is the U.N. Charter as relevant today as it was 75 years ago?
Preventing the illegal use of force and ensuring equality and dignity for all people are the cornerstones of the U.N. Charter. How has this mission fared in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region? What lessons have we learned from the U.N.’s role in conflicts such as those in Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Palestine, and Syria? Is it still realistic to discuss Security Council reform? What impact would such reform have on conflicts in the MENA region?
Furthermore, there are a number of U.N. political missions and special envoys working on complex issues in countries including Yemen, Libya, and Syria. Their role has often been controversial. What alternatives must be considered to address conflict mediation in the MENA region? Does the U.N. still serve as an effective multilateral mechanism through which to pursue conflict resolution?
The Brookings Doha Center invites you to attend this webinar that discusses these questions and more. The panelists will critically reflect on the achievements, challenges, and potential trajectories of the U.N. in the MENA region, in light of the organization’s 75th anniversary.
Speakers:
Noha Aboueldahab, moderator: Fellow – Foreign Policy, Brookings Doha Center
Habib Nassar: Director of Policy and Research – Impunity Watch
Jakkie Cilliers: Chairman of the Board and Head of African Futures & Innovation – Institute for Security Studies
Lise Grande: United Nations Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator – Yemen
7. Ramifications of the US Elections for Change in the EU’s Eastern Neighborhood | November 11, 2020 | 8:00 – 9:00 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
We have recently seen a period of US disengagement with Europe and its Eastern neighborhood. In this event, we explore changes in American foreign policy toward this region after the Presidential elections on November 3, the risks of a possible prolonged transition in Washington, and access the broader implications for the region, including those stemming from recent developments in Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, and Moldova as well as the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.
We have recently seen a period of US disengagement with Europe and its Eastern neighborhood. In this event, we explore changes in American foreign policy toward this region after the Presidential elections on November 3, the risks of a possible prolonged transition in Washington, and access the broader implications for the region, including those stemming from recent developments in Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, and Moldova as well as the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.
We will explore how a “more geopolitical Europe” will react to these changes, and whether European leaders can count on a more supportive administration in Washington as they deal with the growing number of crises and challenges to regional security, including an assertive Russia and Turkey.
Speakers:
Daniel S. Hamilton: Director, Global Europe Program; Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation Distinguished Fellow
Cristina Gherasimov: Research Fellow, Robert Bosch Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia, DGAP
Stefan Meister: Head of Tbilisi Office, Heinrich Böll Foundation; Associate Fellow, DGAP
Milan Nič, moderator: Head of Program, Robert Bosch Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia, DGAP
8. What are Pakistan’s Aims in Afghanistan? | November 12, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:15 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Pakistan’s aims in Afghanistan are variously described as the chief obstacles to a peace process in that country, or as serving as an active partner with the international community in working for a political solution to the Afghan conflict. However, on one issue, there is ordinarily little dispute: Pakistan looks at the outcome in Afghanistan as critical to its security interests. Arguably, no outside country has more to gain and lose from what happens in Afghanistan. The Middle East Institute (MEI), in co-sponsorship with INDUS, is pleased to host a panel of experts to discuss Pakistani interests and aims in Afghanistan.
How relevant currently is the concept of “strategic depth”? What kind of regime would Pakistan prefer in Kabul? What is the nature of Pakistan’s relationship with the Taliban and how much influence does it exercise over the insurgency’s political wing? How important to the course of the Afghan conflict today are Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan?
Speakers:
Madiha Afzal: David M. Rubenstein fellow, Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution
Asad Durrani: Former chief, military intelligence and inter-services intelligence, Pakistan
Afrasiab Khattak: Former Senator, Pakistan; Pashtun political and human rights activist; analyst, regional affairs
Jawed Ludin: Former deputy foreign minister of Afghanistan; president, Heart of Asia Society
Marvin Weinbaum, moderator: Director, Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, MEI
9. US-Taiwan Policy in 2021 and Beyond | November 12, 2020 | 9:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
U.S.-Taiwan relations have advanced in recent years. At the same time, tensions have been rising in cross-Strait relations and in U.S.-China relations, raising concerns about Taiwan’s overall security. How will the results of the U.S. presidential election impact these developments? What issues relating to Taiwan should command the greatest attention from U.S. policymakers in 2021 and beyond?
On November 12, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution will host a group of policy experts to examine the future of U.S.-Taiwan policy. Panelists will participate in a cross-cutting discussion analyzing the next administration’s inheritance of U.S.-Taiwan relations and examining a range of issues critical to Taiwan’s future, including cross-Strait dynamics, Taiwan’s international space, economic security, technology issues, and security issues.
Speakers:
Ryan Hass, moderator: The Michael H. Armacost Chair Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, John L. Thornton China CenterInterim Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies
Richard C. Bush: Nonresident Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, John L. Thornton China Center
Bonnie S. Glaser: Senior Adviser for Asia and Director, China Power Project – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Syaru Shirley Lin: Nonresident Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies
Eric Sayers: Adjunct Senior Fellow, Asia-Pacific Security Program – Center for a New American Security
10. The UN Nuclear Ban Treaty Enters Into Force in January: Then What? | November 13, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment of Peace | Register Here
Fifty countries recently signed and ratified the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which will take effect in January 2021. This marks a major milestone in international efforts to ban nuclear weapons, but notably, the United States, its allies, and all other nuclear-armed states refused to take part.
So what effect, if any, will the treaty have on international security and nuclear disarmament efforts? And how will treaty promoters attract additional states to sign and ratify it? Join Beatrice Fihn, Togzhan Kassenova, Zia Mian, and George Perkovich for a conversation on the future of the nuclear ban.
Speakers:
Beatrice Fihn: executive director of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize-winning campaign coalition that works to prohibit and eliminate nuclear weapons.
Togzhan Kassenova: nonresident fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment.
Zia Mian: physicist and co-director of Princeton University’s Program on Science and Global Security, part of the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs.
George Perkovich: works primarily on nuclear strategy and nonproliferation issues; cyberconflict; and new approaches to international public-private management of strategic technologies.
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Peace Picks | November 2nd – November 6, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. How Will the 2020 Presidential Election Shape U.S. Policy in the Middle East? | November 2, 2020 | 4:00 – 5:15 PM AST | Brookings Institute | Register Here
In the lead-up to the 2020 presidential election, the United States faces unprecedented domestic and international challenges. Domestically, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to rage unabated, having already caused over 200,000 fatalities and an economic crisis rivalling the Great Depression. The country is also grappling with sharp social and political polarization, as demonstrated by ongoing protests against police brutality and racism, as well as the controversy over who will replace the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court. Internationally, great power competition is ramping up, even as the global economy struggles to absorb the double hit of COVID-19 and falling oil prices.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region continues to grapple with its own challenges, not only the economic impact of COVID-19 and lower oil prices, but also ongoing conflicts, failure of governance, as well as rising tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean. Amid this turmoil, the Trump administration has pursued inconsistent policies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, upending long-standing norms to mixed success.
The Brookings Doha Center and Arab Barometer invite you to attend a webinar on the potential impact of the 2020 U.S. elections on the MENA region. The discussion will address the following questions: How will the results of the U.S. election affect the country’s policies in the MENA region, and vice versa? How does the Arab public view the U.S. and what does a continuation of a Trump presidency mean versus a Biden presidency in the eyes of ordinary citizens in the region? How might the Trump administration’s efforts to promote Israeli normalization and sanction Iran impact voter opinions? And in what ways would a Biden administration be likely to build upon or break away from the current U.S. policies in the region?
Speakers:
Adel Abdel Ghafar (moderator): Fellow – Foreign Policy, Brookings Doha Center
Michael Robbins: Project Director – Arab Barometer
Maha Yahya: Director – Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East
Tamara Cofman Wittes: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
Samer Shehata: Professor of Middle East Studies – University of Oklahoma
2. Elections in the Time of COVID-19: Brazilian Edition | November 2, 2020 | 2:00 – 2:45 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
In Brazil and the United States, both continental-sized democracies, holding national elections takes significant planning and management—and COVID-19 has only brought new challenges to election authorities in both countries. But unlike in the United States, where more than 3,000 counties are each responsible for their own electoral process, the supervision and administration of elections in Brazil falls largely on the Superior Electoral Court (TSE): the highest body of electoral justice in Brazil. In coordination with the regional electoral courts, the TSE has been tasked with protecting poll workers and voters alike in more than 5,500 cities across Brazil during the upcoming municipal elections.
Join us for a discussion on the preparations for the Nov. 15 municipal elections—when more than 145 million voters go to the polls in 5,500 cities across Brazil—, the twin challenges of COVID-19 and disinformation, and observations on differing electoral processes in Brazil and the United States.
Speakers:
Justice Luís Roberto Barroso: President of the Superior Electoral Court; Justice of the Supreme Federal Court
Ambassador Thomas A. Shannon, Jr: Co-Chair, Brazil Institute Advisory Council; Senior International Policy Advisor at Arnold & Porter
Paulo Sotero: Distinguished Fellow, Brazil Institute
3. Tbilisi Tallies: Georgia’s Post-Election Outlook | November 2, 2020 | 9:30 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Georgia’s parliamentary elections on October 31 will be held amid a war on its doorstep, a sharp spike in new coronavirus cases, and ramped-up interference from the Kremlin. The recent escalation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has challenged the fragile security situation in the South Caucasus. Meanwhile, a rising number of coronavirus infections will prevent international election observers from monitoring the election and may depress voter turnout.
On the bright side, Georgia is also set for what may be its most competitive elections to date, after the legislature passed electoral reforms in June aimed at curbing parliamentary supermajorities. Do all of these developments mean that Georgia is entering a new phase? What can observers expect to see next?
Speakers:
Thomas de Waal: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Nino Ghvinadze: Non-resident Fellow, Eurasia Center
Laura Linderman: Non-resident Senior Fellow, Eurasia Center
Dr. Lincoln Mitchell: Adjunct Research Scholar, Columbia University
Melinda Haring, moderator: Deputy Director, Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
4. Election 2020: Results and Implications | November 4, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:15 PM EST | Brookings Institute | Register Here
One of the most significant elections in U.S. history is soon coming to an end. Election officials are expecting a large increase of mail-in ballots and early in-person voting, as well as a big turnout on Election Day. This could mean that the process of counting ballots may take more time than in previous elections. Potential legal challenges could also delay the results of key races. But once the votes are all counted, the results will be confirmed—and the implications are vast.
Newly elected policymakers in federal and state government will be expected to immediately address several ongoing national crises, including the coronavirus pandemic, a cratering economy, climate change, and systemic racism—all while working to unite a deeply divided public. How do the election results relate to what’s happening across the country and what can they tell us about the governing challenges that America will face over the next four years?
On November 4, the day after the election, Governance Studies at Brookings will host a webinar examining the results of the 2020 election. Panelists will review election results, the factors that produced that outcome, policy priorities for the president-elect, and the significance of it all for American democracy.
Speakers:
E.J. Dionne, Jr. moderator: W. Averell Harriman Chair and Senior Fellow – Governance Studies
Camille Busette: Senior Fellow – Economic Studies, Governance Studies, Metropolitan Policy ProgramDirector – Race, Prosperity, and Inclusion Initiative
John Hudak: Deputy Director – Center for Effective Public ManagementSenior Fellow – Governance Studies
Elaine Kamarck: Founding Director – Center for Effective Public ManagementSenior Fellow – Governance Studies
Molly E. Reynolds: Senior Fellow – Governance Studies
5. Local Elections and the Future of Local Self-Governance in Ukraine | November 5, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM EST | Wilson Center | Register Here
Ukraine began to reform local government in 2015 as one of the demands of Euromaidan. Since then, the key achievement of decentralization policy was the empowerment of local communities through merging local districts. These new local governments broadened the scope of their agenda and budget as they merged. In July 2020, the Rada radically decreased the number of local administrations, or rayons, from 490 to 136. The October 2020 local elections brought new leadership into these administrations. Vita Dumanska, Olena Lennon, and Mykhailo Minakov will discuss the results of the local elections, who now governs these reformed localities, and what the consequences of the elections might be on local reforms in the near future.
Speakers:
Vita Dumanska: CEO, CHESNO Movement
Olena Lennon: Former Title VIII-Supported Short-Term Scholar; Adjunct Professor of Political Science and National Security, University of New Haven
Mykhailo Minakov: Senior Advisor; Editor-in-Chief, Focus Ukraine Blog
William E. Pomeranz, moderator: Deputy Director, Kennan Institute
6. The Korean Peninsula After the U.S. Election | November 5, 2020 | 8:00 – 9:10 AM EST | Wilson Center | Register Here
President Donald Trump’s first four years in the White House sparked dramatic shifts in diplomacy in Northeast Asia, including historic summits with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, protracted military negotiations with South Korea and rising strategic competition with China. What could the next four years look like for Asia if he is re-elected? And what changes and challenges might we anticipate if former Vice President Joseph Biden wins the November election?
As Americans head to the polls, experts from the United States, South Korea and Europe examine how foreign policy in the region will be impacted by the man who takes the White House in January 2021. Whether President Trump wins a second term or former Vice President Biden seizes the presidency, the Nov. 3 presidential election is bound to have a deep impact on the Korean Peninsula, including how to rein in North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, navigate a rising China and restore fraying alliances.
Speakers:
Joseph Yun: Senior Adviser to the Asia Program at the U.S. Institute of Peace and Former U.S. Special Representative for North Korea policy
Kim Joonhyung: Chancellor of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in South Korea
Jean H. Lee: Director, Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy; Journalist and former Pyongyang Bureau Chief, Associated Press
Kim Jiyoon: Political Analyst and Host of Jiyoon Kim’s Evening Show on TBS FM
Ramon Pacheco Pardo, moderator: KF-VUB Korea Chair, Institute for European Studies
7. Why is Reform Hard in Ukraine? | November 5, 2020 | 11:30 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Reform efforts in Ukraine have faced numerous challenges in 2020. In March, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fired many of the reform-minded technocrats in his cabinet and replaced them with establishment figures. Anti-corruption efforts are stymied by courts backed by special interests, while oligarchs and Russian agents control blocs of lawmakers in the Verkhovna Rada, rendering legislative reform difficult.
Once again, “business as usual” has prompted skepticism in the Ukrainian people. Local elections in late October delivered a sound rebuke of Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party, which lost seats in regional parliaments across the country and performed poorly in major mayoral races. What explains the complicated reform dynamic in Ukraine? What can Western partners do to help Ukraine get back on track?
Speakers:
Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk: Former Prime Minister of Ukraine; Distinguished Fellow at the Eurasia Center
Dr. Tymofiy Mylovanov: Former Minister of Economic Development, trade, and Agriculture of Ukraine
Serhiy Verlanov: Former Head of the State Tax Service of Ukraine
Melinda Haring: Deputy Director, Eurasia Center
Ambassador John Herbst, moderator: Director, Eurasia Center
8. “New” Saudi Arabia: Social Change, Economic Obstacles, and Western Alliances | November 6, 2020 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Saudi Arabia’s socioeconomic reforms and progress toward Vision 2030 has been widely celebrated, at the same time as the autocratic actions and human rights abuses by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have received international condemnation. A more globally connected Saudi population is paving the way for greater progress and reform as the government pursues economic diversification initiatives and gradual social liberalization reforms. At this crossroads, Saudi Arabia’s economy has been hit by the Covid-19 pandemic and the oil price wars.
Given that the US-Saudi alliance historically has been closely tied with economic relations and energy markets, how might these converging economic challenges impact the bilateral relationship? How might shifting sociopolitical dynamics within the kingdom affect its approach to relations with Western countries? What does the history of US-Saudi relations tell us about the complex interplay of economic, political, and security interests the US has in the Gulf, and how that might impact reform progress in the next decade?
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a conversation between David Rundell and Victor McFarland, two leading scholars who have recently published books detailing different aspects of the Kingdom’s ascent over the past two decades.
Speakers:
Victor McFarland: Associate professor, Department of History, University of Missouri
David Rundell: Career diplomat; author
Kristin Diwan, moderator: Senior resident scholar, The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
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Stevenson’s army, June 10
– WSJ says Trump wanted to fire SecDef Esper but was talked out of it by Hill allies and outside advisers.
– NYT says Bolsonaro threatens military coup in Brazil.
– Just Security article says DOD regs give command to Attorney General.
– Lawfare piece sees conflicting laws over control of out of state Guard units in DC.
– Here’s CRS list of military posts named after Confederates
– WSJ’s Gerry Seib notes polls showing distrust of opposing parties.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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