Tag: Central African Republic
The 2013 vintage in the peace vineyard
2013 has been a so-so vintage in the peace vineyard.
The Balkans saw improved relations between Serbia and Kosovo, progress by both towards the European Union and Croatian membership. Albania managed a peaceful alternation in power. But Bosnia and Macedonia remain enmired in long-running constitutional and nominal difficulties, respectively. Slovenia, already a NATO and EU member, ran into financial problems, as did Cyprus. Turkey‘s long-serving and still politically dominant prime minister managed to get himself into trouble over a shopping center and corruption.
The former Soviet space has likewise seen contradictory developments: Moldova‘s courageous push towards the EU, Ukraine‘s ongoing, nonviolent rebellion against tighter ties to Russia, and terrorist challenges to the Sochi Winter Olympics. Read more
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The end is nigh, once again
2013 is ending with a lot of doom and gloom:
- South Sudan, the world’s newest state, is suffering bloodletting between political rivals, who coincide with its two largest tribes (Dinka and Nuer).
- The Central African Republic is imploding in an orgy of Christian/Muslim violence.
- North Korea is risking internal strife as its latest Kim exerts his authority by purging and executing his formally powerful uncle.
- China is challenging Japan and South Korea in the the East China Sea.
- Syria is in chaos, spelling catastrophe for most of its population and serious strains for all its neighbors.
- Nuclear negotiations with Iran seem slow, if not stalled.
- Egypt‘s military is repressing not only the Muslim Brotherhood but also secular human rights advocates.
- Israel and Palestine still seem far from agreement on the two-state solution most agree is their best bet.
- Afghanistan‘s President Karzai is refusing to sign the long-sought security agreement with the United States, putting at risk continued presence of US troops even as the Taliban seem to be strengthening in the countryside, and capital and people are fleeing Kabul.
- Al Qaeda is recovering as a franchised operation (especially in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and North Africa), even as its headquarters in Pakistan has been devastated.
- Ukraine is turning eastward, despite the thousands of brave protesters in Kiev’s streets.
The Economist topped off the gloom this week by suggesting that the current international situation resembles the one that preceded World War I: a declining world power (then Great Britain, now the US) unable to ensure global security and a rising challenger (then Germany now China). Read more
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The world according to CFR
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) survey of prevention priorities for 2014 is out today. Crowdsourced, it is pretty much the definition of elite conventional wisdom. Pundits of all stripes contribute.
The top tier includes contingencies with high impact and moderate likelihood (intensification of the Syrian civil war, a cyberattack on critical US infrastructure, attacks on the Iranian nuclear program or evidence of nuclear weapons intent, a mass casualty terrorist attack on the US or an ally, or a severe North Korean crisis) as well as those with moderate impact and high likelihood (in a word “instability” in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Iraq or Jordan). None merited the designation high impact and high likelihood, though many of us might have suggested Syria, Iraq and Pakistan for that category. Read more
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Peace picks, December 16-20
DC is beginning to slow down as the holiday season is fast approaching, but there are still some great events this week. We won’t likely publish another edition until January 5, as the year-end doldrums will likely last until then:
1. The Middle Kingdom Looks East, West, North, and South: China’s Strategies on its Periphery
Monday, December 16 | 9:00am – 10:30am
Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Fifth Floor
China’s recent declaration of an air defense identification zone in the East China Sea and its territorial claims over 80% of the South China Sea are focusing renewed American attention on Chinese strategy. To understand China’s policies, deployments, and ambitions in the Western Pacific, we must analyze China’s attitudes toward all of its 14 border States and Pacific neighbors, and toward its near and more distant seas.
The Kissinger Institute’s 2013 series of public programs will conclude with a talk by renowned author Edward Luttwak, who will lead a discussion of China’s strategy throughout its periphery, with an emphasis on the Diaoyu/Senkakus and other regional disputes.
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Peace picks, November 18-22
DC’s top events of the week:
1. Oil Security and the US Military Commitment to the Persian Gulf
Monday, November 18 | 9:00am – 2:30pm
George Washington University Elliott School, 1957 E Street NW, Lindner Family Commons Room 602
9:00-9:20: Introduction
Charles Glaser, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
9:30-11:00: Threats to U.S. Oil Security in the Gulf: Past, Present and Future
Salim Yaqub, University of California-Santa Barbara
Thomas Lippman, Middle East Institute
Joshua Rovner, Southern Methodist University
Chair: Rosemary Kelanic, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
11:15-12:15: The Economic Stakes: Oil Shocks and Military Costs
Eugene Gholz, LBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas-Austin
Kenneth Vincent, George Washington University
Chair: Charles Glaser, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
12:45-2:15: Possibilities for U.S. Grand Strategy in the Persian Gulf
Daniel Byman, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Caitlin Talmadge, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
Rosemary Kelanic, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
Chair: Charles Glaser, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
The U.S. strategic objective of protecting Persian Gulf oil has generated little controversy since the Gulf became a focus of U.S. military deployments over three decades ago. This may seem unsurprising given the widely-appreciated importance of oil to the global economy. Nevertheless, quite dramatic changes have occurred in the regional balance of power, the nature of security threats, and the global oil market since the U.S. made its commitment-raising the possibility that the U.S. role should be revisited. This conference examines two critical questions for U.S. grand strategy in the Gulf. First, should the United States continue to rely on military capabilities to preserve the flow of Persian Gulf oil? Second, if the U.S. security commitment remains strategically sound, what military posture should U.S. forces adopt? The conference panels examine the key rationales driving current U.S. policies, the costs and benefits of alternative approaches, and options for revising the U.S. military stance in the region.
Lunch will be served.
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Trouble in the heart of Africa
Former student Matthias-Sönke Witt (@msbcw) offers a second post from his perch in Ituri:
The crisis in the Central African Republic (CAR) has garnered increased media attention recently, following the adoption of a resolution by the UN Security Council and a widely quoted press statement this week by Doctors Without Borders (MSF). While the latter rightly directed attention to the unfolding humanitarian disaster in the country, caused by massive internal displacement, growing food insecurity, and the collapse of the already weak health care system, the former naturally focused on political and security aspects of the crisis. The UN resolution calls for extensive disarmament efforts, the preparation of new elections according to a roadmap decided upon during April peace talks, the promotion and protection of human rights, and security sector reform. Those are some ambitious demands, given the reality on the ground.
The situation is dire: since a coalition of multiple rebel groups threw out President François Bozizé in March 2013, the already weak state authority throughout the country has collapsed entirely. The rebel alliance, called “Seleka” after the Sango word for “union,” was a coalition of necessity, united in their goal of ousting Bozizé and taking over Bangui, the country’s capital.
Their military leader, an old foe of Bozizé’s named Michel Djotodia, was quickly recognized as the transitional head of state at a regional summit in neighboring Chad, but lost control and influence over most Seleka-affiliated groups as soon as he took up his governing duties. He is now the de jure leader of a state whose security apparatus has all but disappeared, resulting in widespread looting, extrajudicial killings, and a rapid rise in violence throughout the country.
Massive displacement, a consequence of escalating violence, has left fields unattended and food supply short. Aid agencies estimate the total number of internally displaced people s at over 300,000 – an overwhelming number, considering the country’s total population of approximately 4.5 million. Hospitals and health centers have been abandoned or destroyed.
An African Union peacekeeping mission, known as MICOPAX, has been expanded to over 1000 troops in recent months. It is difficult to see how this force can bring stability to the country, as it has been present since 2008 and failed to stand in the way of the most recent rebellion. It will most likely take decisive action from international actors in addition to the African Union if the downward spiral towards complete state failure is to be stopped anytime soon.
French President Hollande has been banging the drums for more international support to stabilize the country, warning of potential regional spillover should its plunge into anarchy not be averted any time soon. He has also announced an increase in the number of French troops, who presently have only a small contingent stationed in Bangui, securing the international airport and a few neighborhoods deemed essential to French interests in the country.
Hollande’s concerns are clear to regional observers. The Central African Republic has been linked to regional conflict throughout its troubled post-colonial past.
Former Congolese rebel leader Jean-Pierre Bemba is currently on trial at the International Criminal Court in The Hague for atrocities his troops committed in Centrafrique in 2002, when now-ousted François Bozizé tried to take power through a military coup for the first time. Rebel groups supported by Chad and Sudan have fought proxy wars on CAR territory during the height of the Darfur conflict not too long ago. Joseph Kony’s Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) has sought refuge in the southern CAR and northern Democratic Republic of the Congo since being ousted from northern Uganda. While US-trained Ugandan and Congolese troops are still actively uprooting LRA camps in the area, the current state of chaos and confusion in Centrafrique could help this dwindling rebel movement regain strength and momentum on CAR soil.
In addition, the stretch of Centrafrique bordering South Sudan and the DRC has seen regional tensions between migrating pastoralists and local communities even before the current escalation of violence. The increased presence of armed groups in the region could serve to further escalate an existing problem.
What Hollande is probably most afraid of, however, is the possibility of an anarchic safe-haven for terrorist rebel groups from West Africa and the Sahel region, a concern echoed by researchers from the International Crisis Group, who fear that Centrafrique might become a training ground for Nigerian Boko Haram.
While regional spillovers have not yet materialized, Hollande’s warning reflects France’s growing uneasiness over developments in central Africa as a whole. Whether his request for international support will be honored remains to be seen, but it is in nobody’s interest to see the CAR spiral further out of control than it already has. Neighboring countries as well as the African Union lack the necessary resources and political will, respectively. Long-term international commitment from beyond Africa to security sector reform and disarmament is needed sooner rather than later if total state failure is to be avoided.
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