Tag: China

Peace Picks May 23-27

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - May 22, 2016 - 0 Comment
  1. Economic Sanctions on Russia | Monday, May 23rd | 9:30-11:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | With the proliferation of new hybrid threats in the global economy, the United States and its transatlantic partners have increasingly used economic sanctions to make broad geopolitical and state-sponsored threats not financially viable. The design and approval of sanctions against globally recognized threats is in the hands of governments that must coordinate on the objective and scope of sanctions, while their implementation relies on the compliance of the private sector that must bear the burden of reduced trade. After a keynote speech on where the United States stand on economic sanctions on Russia, Ambassador Fried will take part in a high-level panel discussion on “US Sanctions Obligations.” Please join the Atlantic Council and Baker & McKenzie for an offsite conversation on Economic Sanctions on Russia, featuring the US State Department’s Coordinator for Sanctions Policy, Daniel Fried. Nicholas F. Coward, Baker & McKenzie Partner, and Caroline Vicini, Deputy Head of Delegation, Delegation of the European Union to the United States, will join the discussion. Anders Aslund, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, will introduce and moderate.
  1. Belarus in Transition | Monday, May 23rd | 2:00-3:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | With revolutionary changes in Ukraine, great power ambitions in Russia, and falling oil prices paired with sanctions, there are serious challenges to Belarus’ paternalistic model of governance. These challenges, however, may present an opportunity for Belarus to move towards a more modern political ideology and economy. Dr. Larissa G. Titarenko, Professor at Belarus State University, and Dr. Valery Yevarouski, Fulbright Research Scholar at the Kennan Institute, will discuss the current socio-economic situation in Belarus and potential models of transition.
  1. Challenges Facing Europe: A Conversation with British Ambassador Sir Kim Darroch | Wednesday, May 25th | 10:00-11:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Less than a month before the British referendum on EU membership, and as anti-refugee and anti-establishment narratives fuel forces of disintegration and nationalism across Europe, Sir Kim Darroch, British Ambassador to the United States, will address the geopolitical and economic issues facing Europe and explore a strategic transatlantic response.  An experienced and innovative diplomat, Sir Kim became the British Ambassador to the United States in January 2016. Prior to that, he served as National Security Advisor to Prime Minister of the United Kingdom David Cameron. In this capacity, he led the National Security Council in dealing with the rise of ISIS, nuclear threats from Iran, and Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Sir Kim, who also served as Britain’s Permanent Representative to the European Union, is particularly well-versed on the Brussels-centric debates surrounding enlargement, integration, and economic recovery. Frederick Kempe, Atlantic Council President and CEO, will join the discussion.
  1. Making Sense of Pakistan’s Sectarian Landscape | Wednesday, May 25th | 10:30-12:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Pakistan’s diverse Islamic landscape features Sunni sects, such as the Deobandis, Barelvis, and Ahl-e-Hadith, as well as Shia ones that include Twelvers, Ismailis, and Khojas. While sectarian tensions in Pakistan are commonly seen through a Sunni/Shia lens, significant divides within the Sunni groups tend to receive less attention. Competition between Deobandis, Barelvis, and Ahl-e-Hadith is intense, and understanding this intra-Sunni competition is essential in order to comprehend not just Pakistan’s sectarian dynamics, but also the roots of extremism in Pakistan and how to counter it. This event will examine intra-Sunni divides in Pakistan, and it will more broadly consider how best to understand the current state of the Sunni/Shia divide. It will also discuss how Pakistan’s contemporary sectarian climate is affected by the Saudi-Iranian rivalry and other developments in global geopolitics. Speakers include Farhat Haq, Wilson Center Fellow, and Marvin Weinbaum, Director, Center for Pakistan Studies, Middle East Institute.
  1. Turkey’s Defense-Industrial Policy | Thursday, May 26th | 10:30-12:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Please join us for the latest event in the Atlantic Council’s Defense-Industrial Policy Series, featuring a discussion on Turkey’s defense-industrial policy with Dr. Ismail Demir, Turkish undersecretary for defense industries. The Defense-Industrial Policy Series is a platform for senior government executives in defense and aerospace to address the public policies that shape these industries’ markets. By engaging the perspective of government leaders about issues at the interface of defense ministries and industries, the series aims to cultivate a constituency for practical solutions to these problems.
  1. A Conversation on the Middle East with Congressman Adam Kinzinger | Thursday, May 26th | 11:45-1:00 | Hudson Institute and The Foreign Policy Initiative | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Join Hudson Institute and the Foreign Policy Initiative as we host Congressman Adam Kinzinger of Illinois for a discussion with journalist Josh Rogin of Bloomberg View. The focus of the discussion will be the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, including ISIS and the resulting refugee crisis, the U.S. exit strategy for Afghanistan, terrorist safe havens in North Africa, the Iran nuclear deal, and a way forward in Syria. As a veteran of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a congressional leader on national security and foreign policy, Congressman Kinzinger will share his perspective on these challenging issues and how America can lead in ensuring greater global stability and prosperity.
  1. China’s Role in a Changing Middle East | Thursday, May 26th | 12:00-1:00 | Middle East Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | China is engaged in active, high-profile diplomacy in the Middle East, ranging from presidential visits to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iran to a mediation effort in the Syrian civil war earlier this year. Beijing’s One Belt, One Road initiative to connect major Eurasian economies through infrastructure, trade, and investment relies in part on stability across the oil-supplying states of the Middle East. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host Dr. Pan Guang (Chinese Association of Middle East Studies) for a discussion of the drivers and impacts of China’s increasingly complex role in the Middle East, the objectives Beijing and regional capitals are pursuing in their relations, and the implications for the United States. Paul Salem, MEI Vice President for Policy and Research, will moderate.

 

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Peace Picks April 18-22

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - April 17, 2016 - 0 Comment
  1. A Conversation on Jerusalem and the Future of the Peace Process with Daniel Seidemann | Monday, April 18th | 12:15-1:30 | Middle East Institute and Johns Hopkins SAIS | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Conflict Management Program of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) are pleased to host internationally renowned Jerusalem expert and activist Daniel Seidemann in a discussion with Al Arabiya TV’s Muna Shikaki about ongoing settlement activities in Jerusalem and challenges to an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement. Seidemann has observed that Jerusalem is becoming “the central arena for Israeli-Palestinian skirmishing of such intensity that developments there jeopardize the very possibility of a two-state solution and threaten to undermine both local and regional stability.” In the absence of a political dialogue, Israel is extending physical barriers and discussing ideas to more thoroughly separate the communities, particularly in Jerusalem. In this period of growing crisis, what steps can advocates of a two-state solution – in the region and in the U.S. and Europe – take to preserve the prospect? Daniel Serwer (SAIS and MEI) will introduce the program.
  2. Beyond Migration: The Refugee Crisis in Europe and the Challenges of Immigrant Integration | Monday, April 18th | 3:30-5:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Despite decades of immigration, even the most multicultural countries in Europe are struggling with the scale of the current refugee crisis, and the challenge of integrating the newcomers. This crisis, one of Europe’s biggest of the past century, has the potential to alter the political fabric of the continent and undermine the foundation of post-WWII transnational institutions. The political and humanitarian consequences of the EU’s deal with Turkey have drawn much attention. But what about those refugees who have already made the trip and are now settling in Europe, if only temporarily? Looking back, what lessons can European governments learn from successes and failures in integrating earlier generations of immigrants? Join us for a discussion of the dilemmas of immigration control in Europe, as well as the longer-term issues of immigrant integration, identity, and belonging. Speakers include Henri J. Barkey, Director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center, James Hollifield, Public Policy Fellow at the Wilson Center, and Riva Kastoryano, Senior Research Fellow, Center for International Research, SciencesPo, Paris.
  1. High Stakes at the Gulf Summit: What President Obama Should Get from the GCC Meeting | Tuesday, April 19th | 2:00-3:30 | Center for Transatlantic Relations and Human Rights First | REGISTER TO ATTEND | On April 21 President Obama will attend the Gulf Co-operation Council Summit in Saudi Arabia, with a series of crises confronting the Gulf monarchies. Syria, Yemen and Iran will be key components of the discussions, as well how to prevent violent extremism. Join us for a panel discussion featuring regional specialists on what Obama should achieve in the GCC meeting, and why it matters so much. Introductory remarks will be made by Ambassador Andras Simonyi, Managing Director, CTR. Speakers include Hala Aldosari, Visiting Scholar, the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, Brian Dooley, Director, Human Rights Defenders, Human Rights First, and Matar Ebrahim Matar, former member of the Bahraini Parliament. Mihai Patru, Senior Fellow, Center for Transatlantic Relations, will moderate.
  2. The Idea of Culture and Civilization in Contemporary Turkish Politics: Public Debate, Policy and Foreign Relations | Wednesday, April 20th | 9:30-2:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Join us for a conference that explores new ideas among Islamist and secular intellectuals in contemporary Turkey and inquire whether novel understandings exist about the relationship between Islam and modernity, East and West, and the position of Turkey itself within them. The conference will also investigate the impact of these understandings on public debate domestically in Turkey and on its foreign policy, specifically its relations with the United States and Europe, Russia, and the Middle East. This event consists of three panels. Speakers and panels may be found here.
  1. The Value of Values: Reconsidering the Role of Human Rights in U.S.-China Relations | Wednesday, April 20th | 2:30-4:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Issues of ideology, values, and human rights are again moving to the top of the United States’ China agenda and underlie many frictions in U.S.-China relations. The competing virtue narratives and disparate systems of the United States and China fuel suspicions in the military, economic, and global governance spheres. Please join us for an examination of values, rights, and ideals in the U.S.-China relationship and in the evolution of regional and world orders. Speakers include J. Stapleton Roy, Founding Director and Distinguished Scholar at the Wilson Center, Sharon Hom, Executive Director, Human Rights in China, Zheng Wang, Global Fellow, and Robert Daly, Director, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States.
  1. Western Defense Reassurances to Gulf Arab After the Iran Deal: Are We on the Same Page? | Thursday, April 21st | 10:00-11:30 | International Institute for Strategic Studies | REGISTER TO ATTEND | You are invited to an IISS discussion meeting on Thursday, April 21st, on Western defense reassurances to Gulf Arabs after the Iran deal. Panelists include Ellen Laipson, Distinguished Fellow and President Emeritus of the Stimson Center, Michael Eisenstadt, director of The Washington Institute’s Military and Security Studies Program, Caroline Hurndall, Head of the Middle East Team at the British Embassy, and Bilal Saab, Resident Senior Fellow for Middle East Security at the Atlantic Council. The panel will discuss whether post-Iran deal arms sales to Gulf Cooperation Council countries meet the goal of reassurance, whether arms sales from different NATO counties are complementary or competitive, and how the sales are affecting the geopolitics of the region. Following the hour-long panel discussion, there will be a 30-minute Q&A session with the audience. The full event will be on the record and webcast live on the IISS website.
  1. Protecting Religious Minorities | Thursday, April 21st | 1:30-3:00 | United States Institute for Peace | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Propelled by the atrocities against religious minorities in several Muslim-majority countries in recent years, particularly at the hands of the Islamic State group, senior religious leaders meeting in Morocco in January issued the Marrakesh Declaration to prevent such violence in the future. Join the U.S. Institute of Peace and its co-hosts on April 21 as renowned Islamic legal scholar Sheikh Abdullah bin Bayyah, who designed the legal framework for the declaration and convened the Morocco meeting, discusses the next steps in ensuring the terms of this call to action can be implemented. The violence wrought by violent extremists creates an imperative for people in the Muslim world across sectarian, ethnic, and national lines to affirm positive teachings within the tradition, address historical points of disagreement and transform the underlying causes of violent extremism into peaceful change.The Marrakesh Declaration courageously acknowledges the oppression and violence against religious minorities within some predominantly Muslim countries. Inspired by the Charter of Medina, which was established in the time of the Prophet Muhammad to guarantee religious freedoms, the declaration presents a way to apply a religious legal and theological framework to uphold human rights. But much of the success of the Marrakesh Declaration will depend on how it is implemented. In this discussion co-hosted by the Network for Religious and Traditional Peacemakers and Sheikh bin Bayyah’s Forum for Promoting Peace in Muslim Societies, he will address the urgency of the Marrakesh Declaration in light of current events. He also will outline plans to work with individuals and organizations to use the declaration as a source of authority and accountability to advance the goals of this call to action.
  1. A Stronger UN for a Peaceful World—Conversation with Ambassador Natalia Gherman | Thursday, April 21st | 4:00-5:00 | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Women in Public Service Projectand the Kennan Instituteinvite you to a discussion with Ambassador Natalia Gherman, candidate for United Nation Secretary General. Amb. Gherman will outline her unique perspective and goals for new UN leadership, before taking audience questions. Ambassador Natalia Gherman has previously served as acting Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, and Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration of the Republic of Moldova. As a Chief Negotiator, she led Moldova towards the Association Agreement, Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area, and visa liberalization regime with the EU. She served as Ambassador to Austria and Permanent Representative to the UN Agencies in Vienna and the OSCE, and Ambassador to Sweden, Finland, and Norway.
  1. The Changing Role of Egypt’s Private Sector | Friday, April 22nd | 9:00-10:30 | Middle East Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a discussion about the evolving role of Egypt’s private sector and the emergence of new business models to meet the demands of sustainable development. Egyptian business leaders Mohamed El-Kalla (Cairo for Investment and Development), Dina Sherif (The Center for Entrepreneurship, AUC) and Tarek Tawfik (Federation of Egyptian Industries) will be joined by American attorney and investment adviser Samar Ali (Bone McAllester Norton PLLC) for an examination of the changing nature of private enterprise in Egypt. Egypt’s new generation of entrepreneurs and corporate leaders are increasingly prioritizing sustainable development, accountability, and responsible business practices as key tools for economic growth. The panel will discuss the drivers of change, the challenges that private business faces from the state, and how the U.S. government and business community can encourage the new trend. Randa Fahmy will moderate the discussion.
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Peace Picks March 21-25

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - March 20, 2016 - 0 Comment
  1. New Voices, New Visions: The Impact of the Arts in Saudi Arabia | Tuesday, March 22nd | 12:00-1:30 | Middle East Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Middle East Institute (MEI) in partnership with Art Jameel is pleased to host internationally acclaimed Saudi artist Ahmed Mater for a discussion about the impact of his art in presenting new perspectives of Saudi Arabia and its role in shaping fresh narratives reflecting the growing aspirations of the Kingdom’s youth. He will be joined in conversation by scholar Kristin Diwan, an expert on youth activism in the Gulf, and British artist Stephen Stapleton, director of the arts organization Culturunners, who founded the Saudi arts collective, Edge of Arabia, with Mater in 2003. The conversation will be moderated by MEI Senior Vice President Kate Seelye.
  2. Confronting Far-Right Extremism in Europe | Tuesday, March 22nd | 4:00-5:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | A wave of far-right populism is sweeping across Europe. Once on the fringes of politics, extremist parties are capitalizing on the refugee crisis and the financial meltdown of 2008 to gain at the polls. The re-emergence of anti-immigrant and isolationist groups and parties in Europe erodes the European Union’s ability to coordinate policies for solving Europe’s crises. Indeed, their growing popularity undermines the basic tenets of the European project. Taking advantage of Europe’s far-right turn, Russia has been aiding its far-right allies, which in turn publicly support Putin’s geopolitical interests and foreign policy agenda. Western policymakers have been slow to recognize the problem and to effectively respond. At a time when Europe faces some of its greatest challenges, we urgently need strategy-driven policies to strengthen the transatlantic relationship. Dr. Frances Burwell, Vice President of the Atlantic Council’s European Union and Special Initiative department, will offer welcome remarks. Susan Corke, Director of the Antisemitism and Extremism department at Human Rights First, Marlene Laurelle, Professor at George Washington University, and Alina Polyakova, Deputy Director of the Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council, will offer their thoughts. Christian Caryl, Foreign Policy Magazine Editor, will moderate.
  3. The Changing Landscape of Environmental Public Participation and Protest in China | Wednesday, March 23rd | 9:00-10:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | As the ‘war’ on pollution continues in China, the Chinese public and environmental NGOs have been taking advantage of more formal and informal channels to voice their concern about worsening air, water and soil quality. At this March 23rd CEF meeting, speakers will discuss China’s evolving space for public participation vis-a-vis environmental problems.  Wu Fengshi (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore) will speak about the changing nature of public contention in China exemplified by recent large-scale anti-development and environmental protests. Drawing on the second edition of her highly acclaimed book—China’s Environmental Challenges—Judith Shapiro (American University) will highlight other ways that citizens and NGOs are responding to the intense pollution enveloping their country.
  4. Saudi Arabian Foreign Policy: Conflict and Cooperation | Wednesday, March 23rd | 12:00-1:30 | Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Having historically been the only oil producer with sufficient spare capacity to shape the world economy, Saudi Arabia has held a critical position in 21st century geopolitics. Despite the increasingly robust role Saudi Arabia has been playing more recently on the regional scene, the kingdom has faced internal and external challenges that have kept it from fulfilling its vast potential. In Saudi Arabian Foreign Policy: Conflict and Cooperation, Gulf expert Neil Partrick, and other regional analysts, address the kingdom’s relations in the Middle East and wider Islamic world, and its engagement with established and emergent global powers. AGSIW is pleased to host a discussion on Saudi Arabian Foreign Policy: Conflict and Cooperation with Neil Partrick and a contributor to the book, Mark N. Katz, who will look at Russian relations with Saudi Arabia. They will be joined by Fahad Nazer, who will discuss the work and Saudi foreign policy, and AGSIW Senior Resident Scholar Hussein Ibish, who will moderate the panel.
  5. The emerging China-Russia axis: The return of geopolitics? | Thursday, March 24th | 9:00-11:00 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Over the past decade, Russia and China have come into closer alignment and their bilateral collaboration has grown. At the same time, Beijing and Moscow have each taken steps to alter the status quo in their respective peripheries (e.g. Russia in Ukraine and China in maritime East Asia). Warmer Sino-Russo relations elicit the question of whether the closer alignment of these two neighbors is somehow changing international politics to the disadvantage of the United States and its friends in Europe and Asia. On March 24, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings will hold a public forum that brings together experts from Japan and the United States to examine how recent actions by China and Russia have affected the global order. Additionally, panelists will analyze whether new geopolitical rivalries have returned both between and within the East and the West. After the panel discussion, the speakers will take audience questions. Panelists include Akihiro Iwashita, Professor at Hokkaido University, Thomas Wright, Director of the Project on International Order and Strategy, Chisako T. Masuo, Associate Professor at Kyushu University, and David Gordon, Senior Advisor of the Eurasia Group. Richard C. Bush III, Director of the Center for East Asia Policy Studies, will moderate.
  6. A Conversation with President of Kosovo H.E. Atifete Jahjaga | Wednesday, March 23rd | 4:00-5:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Seventeen years ago, NATO intervened in then-Yugoslavia in the mission known as Operation Allied Force. It was almost ten years later, in 2008, when Kosovo declared independence. Today, the country has made progress in its European integration, but ensuring regional security and political stability have remained significant challenges. Though Montenegro recently received an invitation to join the NATO Alliance, joining Albania and Croatia, it is unlikely that other Balkan countries will soon be brought into the NATO fold. Against the backdrop of a serious migration crisis and continuing uncertainty from Europe’s East, deep divisions threaten the stability of the region and endanger its collective security. As President of the Republic of Kosovo, H.E. Atifete Jahjaga has been a vocal proponent of the path for Kosovo toward membership in the EU and other institutions. In her final visit to Washington before concluding her mandate, President Jahjaga will provide an outlook on the progress Kosovo has made in the years since NATO’s intervention, as well as ways to address the contemporary security challenges faced by Kosovo and the wider region.
  7. Report Launch: Ilya Yashin on Ramzn Kadyrov | Thursday, March 24th | 12:00-1:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The harassment and sanctioned murder of opposition voices are no longer the exception in Russia; rather, they are part and parcel of President Vladimir Putin’s strategic intent to suppress those who challenge his government. Ramzan Kadyrov, Mr. Putin’s close ally and leader of Chechnya, is widely believed to be responsible for orchestrating the murder of Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov in February 2015. In recent months, Kadyrov and his supporters have systematically harassed and threatened Russian opposition politicians who bravely speak out against Putin’s regime. In his revealing report, A Threat to National Security, Ilya Yashin details the extent of Kadyrov’s criminal activities and unrestrained corruption. Kadyrov now exercises complete control over Chechnya with a private army of thirty thousand loyal only to him. Kadyrov’s increasingly brazen actions signal that the Kremlin may not have complete control over the Chechen leader.
  8. Running an Independent Russian Media Outlet | Friday, March 25th | 10:00-11:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Since its launch in October 2014, the independent, Riga-based media outlet Meduza has reached an audience of 4 million unique visitors per month, 70% of whom live in Russia. How does Meduza ensure comprehensive coverage of Russian news while being based outside the country? How have the Russian establishment and official media responded to Meduza’s rise? Publisher and journalist Ilya Krasilshchik shares the story of Meduza’s challenges and success. Ekaterina Krongauz, journalist and editor of Meduza, will also speak.
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Superbowl, Academy awards, election debate

Posted in Daniel Serwer - March 4, 2016 - 0 Comment

I’ve missed all three: I didn’t watch the Superbowl, the Academy awards or last night’s Republican debate. I suppose this makes me downright anti-American, but I’ve got what I regard as good reasons to skip all three.

The Superbowl is the ultimate American sports event. It features sudden rushes of activity and physical collisions so violent that they are maiming and killing the participants at a terrifying rate. I’ve always wondered how the Romans found gladiatorial contests appealing. I know now. It is simply inhumane to continue to play this sport as it is played today. A parent who would encourage a kid to play tackle football is a child abuser.

The Academy awards are easy to skip. They were always boring. The failure this year to nominate any black people makes them more so. Chris Rock, whose monologue I read, did little to convince me this is anything but gross and inexcusable prejudice by people who know better. Hollywood has often been a trailblazer when it comes to responding to prejudice. How could it allow itself to sink to symbolizing it?

I’m sure last night’s Republican presidential debate was more entertaining than the Academy awards. But I’ve had enough, not only of Trump’s vulgarity but also of Cruz and Rubio’s attempts to match him.

That said, Trump represents an important slice of the American public, in particular blue collar whites who have benefitted little from the extraordinary economic recovery of the last seven years, topped off last month with almost 250,000 new jobs created. But unfortunately he has chosen to appeal to them with barely disguised racism and grossness, from within a political party that has blocked many attempts to level the playing field and redistribute some of the benefits of the expansion in their direction.

I’d like to see the end of two great American traditions. The Academy awards are the most likely to go first. They have lost a large part of their audience because they are boring and irrelevant. Unfortunately football is still thriving, but young people are increasingly turning to soccer. I hope that trend continues, with the long-term consequence of removing football from its exalted place as the leading American professional sport.

As for the Republican debate, it suggests the party is imploding. It may well nominate Trump, who as a major party candidate is more or less guaranteed one-third, maybe even 40%, of the vote. But he is a loser with all the voters who are counting for more these days in getting over 50%: independents, women, blacks, Hispanics, gays and lesbians. Most of my Republican friends will prefer to vote for Clinton, but of course that over-intellectualized elite counts for little.

It is also possible the Stop Trump movement will succeed and nominate someone like Senators Cruz or Rubio, or Governor Kasich. But in doing so it will lose Trump’s appeal to white blue collars, who are likely to stay home in droves. In any event, it looks as if the economy will be in good shape for November. If anything, its momentum is on the rise, which is the single most important factor in determining US election outcomes.

This is Hillary Clinton’s election to lose. She might do that. The Benghazi issue is fading, not least because of her own performance in Congressional testimony. There simply is no there there. But the question of her unclassified, private email server is still bubbling. Most Democrats don’t seem to care, but she could be indicted. Even if that doesn’t happen, the poor judgment she showed in following a precedent Republican Secretaries of State Colin Powell and Condi Rice had set will weaken her with some independents.

Foreign policy will be an issue in this election, even if not a primary one. The threat of Islamic extremism, Russia’s misbehavior in Ukraine and Syria, the Chinese economic and military challenge, and US support for its European and Middle Eastern allies (especially Israel) will all figure, one way or another. The Republicans will bash President Obama’s two big (and popular) recent achievements: the Paris climate change agreement and the Iran nuclear deal. They will have a harder time with Trans-Pacific Partnership trade trade agreement, which Clinton opposes but the Republican establishment supports.

What won’t matter in the election or in the world are the Academy awards and the Superbowl. Nor in the end will Trump. He’ll either be nominated and lose or be edged out somehow and some other Republican will have to figure out how to make Clinton lose, which is unlikely but no impossible.

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Peace Picks February 22-26

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - February 21, 2016 - 0 Comment
  1. Stalin’s “Revolution from Above”: Property Seizure in the Perm Region | Tuesday, February 23rd | 10:00-11:00 | Wilson Center | Stalin’s “liquidation of kulaks as a class” began in the early 1930s with the seizure of peasants’ property. Dr. Suslov argues, using the Perm region as a case study, that the arbitrary nature of this campaign’s enforcement was by design, rather than an accident of application. Using the directives of the regional party bodies, he elucidates the relationship between the seemingly random application of “dekulakization” on the local level, and Stalin’s overarching goal to change the structure of Soviet society. Andrei Borisovich Suslov, Professor and Head of Modern and Contemporary Russian History Department at Perm State Humanitarian Pedagogical University.
  2. Egypt’s Enduring Security Challenges | Tuesday, February 23rd | 12:00-1:30 | Hudson Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Five years since the uprisings in Tahrir Square, Egypt has seemingly come full circle. With the Muslim Brotherhood crushed, the non-Islamist opposition shattered, civic groups demoralized, and a new military regime that enjoys significant popular support, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s rule appears secure. But how secure is Egypt? Beneath the facade of stability lies a far more challenging reality. With a population of over 90 million, the country is facing systemic political and economic problems. Frustrations are growing with the government’s lack of vision, while the Islamic State and other radical groups are actively seeking to exploit social and political tensions. Meanwhile, the U.S. assessment of Egypt’s strategic importance is starting to change. Once a key pillar of America’s regional security alliances, today the country’s power and influence is greatly diminished. Given the new threats posed by sub-state groups to the security of the Egyptian public and homeland, the annual U.S. transfers of $1.5 billion to Egypt’s military seem woefully anachronistic. With a potential new crisis looming, what are America’s best options to help Egypt secure itself in this new era? On February 23, Hudson Institute will convene a lunchtime panel with top Egypt analysts Samuel Tadros, Michael Wahid Hanna, Amy Hawthorne, and Mokhtar Awad. Hudson Senior Fellow Eric Brown will moderate the discussion. The panel includes Samuel Tadros, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, Michael Wahid Hanna, Senior Fellow at the Century Foundation, Amy Hawthorne, Deputy Director at the Project on Middle East Democracy, and Mokhtar Awad, Research Fellow of the Program on Extremism at George Washington University. The event will be moderated by Eric Brown, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute.
  3. Militancy, Border Security, and Democracy in the Sahel | Wednesday, February 24th | 8:30-4:00 | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | REGISTER TO ATTEND | This all-day conference brings together leading scholars from around the world to examine security and governance challenges in the Maghreb-Sahel, many of them concentrated along national boundaries. The permeability of borders, along with political vacuums and economic marginalization in the hinterlands, has transformed border communities into epicenters of identity-driven politics, militancy, violent conflict, and organized transnational crime. This event is co-hosted with the African Peacebuilding Network of the Social Science Research Council and the National Endowment for Democracy. This invitation is not transferrable without prior Carnegie approval. The first panel from 9:15 to 10:45 is called “Insecurity in Border Areas in Libya, Tunisia, and Algeria.” Panelists include Amy Hawthorne, Dalia Ghanem-Yazbeck, and Rebecca Murray, and will be moderated by Samba Tall. The second panel takes place from 11:00 to 12:30. This panel is called “Evolution of Security Threats in Mali, Mauritania, and Nigeria.” It features Anouar Boukhars, Boubacar N’Diaye, and Gbemisola Animasawun as panelists. Ismail Rashid will moderate. From 1:00 to 1:45 John Desrocher, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Egypt and Maghreb Affairs, will deliver the keynote address. From 2:00 to 3:00 the panel “Politics, Democracy, and Peacebuilding in the Sahel” will take place. Panelists include Kamissa Camara, Muhammad Fraser-Rahim, Cheri Baker, and Charles Ukeje. Cyril Obi will moderate.
  4. Chinese and Russian Border Disputes | Wednesday, February 24th | 10:00-11:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | China and Russia are both continental powers which border fourteen nations—a tie for highest neighbor count on Earth. Throughout their respective histories, each has expanded and contracted, spawning countless border disputes. Dr. Alexseev and Dr. Zhao will examine historical Sino-Soviet and Sino-Russian border disputes and their resolution, drawing lessons about how Russia and China view territorial issues and what that history means for current disagreements, such as those over the Kuril Islands/Northern Territories and Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. This discussion is part of the China and Russia: On Their Own Termsseries, a joint project of the Wilson Center’s Kennan and Kissinger Institutes. Speakers include Mikhail Alexseev, Professor of Political Science at San Diego State University, and Quansheng Zhao, Professor of International Relations and Chair of the Asian Studies Program Research Council at American University.
  5. Kingdom at a crossroads: Thailand’s uncertain political trajectory | Wednesday, February 24th | 2:00-3:30 | Brookings Institution | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Thailand has been under military rule since May 2014, when General Prayuth Chan-Ocha and the Royal Thai Army seized power after deposing democratically elected Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. Current Prime Minister Prayuth has systematically postponed elections on the grounds of prioritizing order and drafting a new constitution to restore democracy. Since the coup, Thai authorities have used the murky lèse-majesté law to curtail opposition to the monarchy, while the country’s economy has languished. On February 24, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings will host an event to explore the root causes of Thailand’s political crisis, the implications of an upcoming royal succession, and the possibilities for the road ahead. The event will be moderated by Senior Fellow Richard Bush. Panelists include Duncan McCargo, professor of political science at the University of Leeds, Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Don Pathan, an independent security analyst based in Thailand. After the discussion, the panelists will take audience questions.
  6. From Civil Resistance to Peaceful Resolution | Thursday, February 25th | 11:00-12:30 | U.S. Institute of Peace | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Since the Arab revolutions of 2011, unarmed resistance has become a major force in global politics, from Tunis to Tahrir Square and on to Ferguson, Missouri. Nonviolent movements have historically outperformed their violent counter-parts, but they don’t always succeed. Join the U.S. Institute of Peace on February 25, as a panel of experts in this field of study and an Emmy-award winning news producer examine the challenges of building and sustaining nonviolent movements, and discuss lessons for scholars, activists, policymakers and practitioners.The panel will be composed of alumni and students from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in Medford, Massachusetts. A leading conflict resolution expert who has worked with activists in Egypt, Syria and elsewhere will discuss how negotiations and nonviolent action can be used together for maximum impact. A scholar of the anti-apartheid struggle in South Africa will consider the violent/nonviolent interplay and the role of strategic communications in dismantling that oppressive regime. Finally, an Emmy award-winning network news producer will show how nonviolent activists can better use the media to amplify their efforts. The panel will be moderated by Fletcher alumnus and USIP Senior Fellow Maria J. Stephan, author of the award-winning book Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict, and co-editor of Is Authoritarianism Staging A comeback? Initial remarks will be followed by questions and answers with the audience. Panelists include Anthony Wanis-St. John, Associate Professor of International Peace and Conflict Resolution at American University, Dr. Liz McClintock, Founder and Managing Partner at CMPartners, LLC, and Executive Director and Chair of the Board of Directors of The Bridgeway Group, Josh Yager, Emmy Award-Winning network news producer, and Benjamin Naimark-Rowse, PhD candidate at The Fletcher School.
  7. Delivering on Democracy: A Discussion with Members of the Tunisian Assembly of the Representatives of the People | Thursday, February 25th | 2:00-3:30 | Project on Middle East Democracy and National Democratic Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED) invite you to a discussion with members of the Assembly of the Representatives of the People (ARP) of the Republic of Tunisia. This event will provide an opportunity for the representatives to share their perspectives on the evolving nature of Tunisian politics, as well as the challenges and opportunities they face in trying to meet citizen expectations and address issues of youth employment and engagement. Les Campbell, Senior Associate and Regional Director of MENA Programs, NDI, will join as a discussant, and the panel will be moderated by Stephen McInerney, Executive Director, POMED. This event is made possible through a grant from the Institute for Representative Government to NDI and with the support of the Bureau for Educational and Cultural Affairs of the U.S. Department of State. The discussion will be led by representatives of the Assembly of the People of Tunisia including Lotfi Ali, Nozha Beyaoui, Haikel Ben Belkassem, Faouzia Ben Fodha, Zouhayer Rajbi, and Sana Salhi. Les Campbell, Senior Associate and Regional Director of MENA Programs at the National Democratic Institute will also take part in this discussion. Stephen McInerney, Executive Director of POMED will moderate.
  8. Advancing Reconciliation and Development in Sri Lanka | Thursday, February 25th | 3:30-5:00 | U.S. Institute of Peace | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Six years after the end of the conflict in Sri Lanka, the country’s new president set out to address longstanding challenges of reconciliation, accountability and political grievance built up during decades of the country’s violent internal conflicts. Please join Sri Lanka’s Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera at the U.S. Institute of Peace on Feb. 25 for a discussion, co-sponsored by the Heritage Foundation, of how the initiatives to advance reconciliation, post-conflict development and stronger democratic institutions are progressing. The conflict in Sri Lanka, which raged for over two decades, came to an end in May 2009 with the defeat of the insurgent Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. In January 2015, President Maithripala Sirisena, in a democratic election, unseated the administration that oversaw the war’s end in a surprise victory, promising to move the country toward reconciliation and sustainable development. Samaraweera told the U.N. Human Rights Council in September 2015 that the government fully recognizes that “the process of reconciliation involves addressing the broad areas of truth-seeking, justice, reparations and non-recurrence.” The Foreign Minister will offer an update on the progress toward sustainable peace in Sri Lanka, including plans for economic development. The remarks will be followed by a moderated discussion and a question-and-answer period with the audience. Ambassador Bill Taylor will offer welcoming remarks Nisha Biswal, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Affairs, will offer introductory remarks. Lisa Curtis, Senior Fellow of the Asian Studies Center at the Heritage Foundation will moderate. Walter Lohman, Director of the Asian Studies Center at the Heritage Foundation, will give closing remarks.
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Indonesia has a plan

Posted in Eddie Grove - January 28, 2016 - 0 Comment

Screen Shot 2016-01-27 at 2.31.47 PMOn Monday, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) hosted its annual Fullerton Forum in Singapore. The keynote address was delivered by Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs and a retired general in the anti-terror squad of the Indonesian special forces. Pandjaitan was introduced by both Tim Huxley, Executive Director, IISS-Asia and by Ng Eng Hen, the Defense Minister of Singapore.

Pandjaitan stated that the goal of terror groups is always to destabilize countries and demoralize their populations. ISIS has not succeeded in doing this so far in Indonesia because the Indonesian government is clear that it does not negotiate with terrorists and will respond immediately to any attacks. ISIS recruitment is a global problem; the number of foreign fighters joining ISIS doubled between 2014 and 2015. Brookings estimates there are 46,000 Twitter accounts that support ISIS. In Indonesia, even some middle-class people have joined ISIS, including a policeman who died in Syria.

Indonesia is a huge country with many poorly-educated people; ISIS’s propaganda concerning the caliphate is powerful among lower-class people. Syria and Iraq are included in Islamic “end times” prophecies, and ISIS convinces people to fight the West and all countries that lack Sharia. ISIS wants to see the caliphate expand to Southeast Asia. Its fighters are hard to deal with because they have what Pandjaitan refers to as a “one-way ticket”: they are prepared to die.

In the January 14 attacks in Jakarta, Indonesian security forces responded rapidly, eliminating the terrorists in less than 12 minutes. They killed four terrorists, and using one of their cell phones, were able to track down and arrest others. This sets an example for terrorists. The attackers were previously linked with Jemaah Islamiyah, a Southeast Asian affiliate of Al Qaeda. Even though ISIS and AQ are fighting each other in Syria, their affiliates are capable of cooperation; Indonesia believes the local ISIS and AQ leaders have merged their work.

Terrorists in Indonesia operate in cells to maintain secrecy; cells do not have contact with other cells, making it difficult for the police to crack down on networks. So far, the authorities have had success in mapping terror networks, but Pandjaitan cannot promise that Indonesia is immune from attacks. Terror groups also communicate their final decisions to stage attacks via couriers, which are hard to intercept.

Fighting terror effectively involves three components:

  1. A soft approach.
  2. International intelligence cooperation.
  3. A hard approach.

The soft approach to fighting terror is Indonesia’s strategy of first resort. This includes counter-radicalization and deradicalization campaigns that are holistic in nature and will partially be conducted using the media.  They are working with Indonesia’s two largest Muslim organizations, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and Muhammadiyah to spread the message, including on television, that ISIS is not Islam and Islam is not ISIS. Indonesia has freedom of religion, so people have the freedom to follow sharia law.

The government is also campaigning against religious intolerance. Indonesia is the largest archipelago country in the world, which makes it difficult to manage. The government is working on categorizing terrorists as ideologues, militants and sympathizers. Ideologues will be imprisoned separately to help stop radicalization in prisons. The government is also cracking down on social media content supporting terror, including videos that provide instructions on how to build bombs.

The ASEAN countries already have a platform for intelligence sharing regarding threats, attacks, and terror financing. Intelligence cooperation in the region is already very good.

The hard approach is a secondary approach, but is one that Indonesia is prepared to use. Indonesia has prepared its special forces to conduct operations anytime and anywhere within the country. If terrorists take hostages, the special forces will free them immediately. The Indonesian government is also altering counterterrorism legislation so that the authorities will be able to detain those suspected of plotting terror attacks for 7-30 days. Those found to have no terror links will be released. New legislation also allows the government to revoke the citizenship of Indonesians who join groups of foreign fighters.

Another key to stopping terror in Indonesia is economic improvement. Economic growth has stopped slowing. The economy grew by about 5.5% this year. Consumer confidence and confidence in the government have increased. The government has been trying to distribute economic growth more evenly between Indonesia’s regions and improve the country’s infrastructure. There has historically been a large gap between the haves and the have-nots. Many terrorists come from poor backgrounds. This year, Indonesia will spend $70 billion or 36% of the national budget on outlying regions. Funding for villages has increased from $2 billion to $4.5 billion in 2016. This will give each village around $100,000 to spend, which will help reduce rural poverty and boost economic growth. Poverty reduction is crucial. Indonesia has 230 million Muslims. If 2% live in extreme poverty and are brainwashed by ISIS, one can imagine how many will become terrorists and stage domestic and regional attacks.

An audience member asked Pandjaitan about links that had been discovered between the terrorists in the recent Jakarta attacks and terrorists from Mindanao in the Philippines. Pandjaitan stated that radicals in Mindanao are supporting radicals in Indonesia, including through the smuggling of weapons and explosives. Indonesian authorities are working to crack down on weapons smuggling.

Another audience member asked about Indonesia’s position regarding China’s actions in the South China Sea. Because of Indonesia’s territory in the Natuna Islands, Indonesia has declared that its Special Economic Zone extends into the South China Sea. There were reports that Indonesia was considering pursuing international arbitration against China. Pandjaitan replied that China acknowledges the Natuna Islands are part of Indonesia, so China and Indonesia are not in conflict regarding this matter. However, Indonesia views the South China Sea as an important area for global shipping. Indonesia does not wish to see power projection in this area and views freedom of navigation as very important.

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