Tag: China
Stevenson’s army, July 7
– The Biden Administration is trying to get around the Constitution’s delegation of trade powers to Congress by making deals and then asking Congress to approve.
– And the House seems willing to oblige, by passing a law allowing it.
– BTW, USMCA hasn’t worked as promised [The story is truncated because neither I nor SAIS wants to pay $5000+ per year for Politico Pro]
– The Supreme Court is making law behind the scenes with its Shadow Docket.
– And news coverage of the Court misses key developments.
– CFR members are backchanneling with Russia
– GOP does want to send US troops into Mexico.
– Walter Pincus sees culture wars in the US military
-DOD wants to block Chinese & Russian influence over academia.
– Tel Aviv police chief charges political interference.
– Germany cuts all but defense.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, July 5
– FT quotes senior UK officer saying Russia has lost half its military capability in Ukraine.
– FT also says Xi warned Putin not to use nukes.
– WSJ notes US is funding many police forces around the world.
– 46 foreign policy experts support NATO membership for Ukraine. [FWIW I disagree.]
– RollCall tells what’s happening with earmarks.
– David Ignatius laments new violence between Israel and Palestinians.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, July 4
– WSJ says China is restricting export of some rare metals.
– NYT says Putin is increasing coup-protection.
– New poll shows divisions among American Jews.
– WSJ reports holds on State nominees for being woke.
– Cato analyst criticizes US Egypt policy.
– Former officers worried about All Volunteer Force.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, June 28
– NYT says Russian general knew of mutiny in advance [Either that’s true or a good way to sow dissent in Kremlin]
– CNN says US didn’t tell most allies about Wagner plans
– Putin admits Russia funded Wagner
– Economist reports how Wagner shot down Russian aircraft
– NYT says US public opinion limits thaw with China
– POGO report on US shipbuilding problems
Charlie later added this Wednesday bonus:
– Politico’s Global Insider has more on various Russian private armies.
– WSJ says Prigozhin hoped to capture senior generals.
– Elliot Ackerman sees a weakened Russian force.
– David Frum worries about GOP calls for attacks in Mexico.
– Stimson analyst sees no real US consensus on China
– SAIS grad explains why US hasn’t ratified Law of the Sea convention
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Sit tight, unite, and prepare for opportunity in Russia
I missed the start last night, but Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group rebel forces are still moving toward Moscow from Rostov-on-Don today. They made it half way so far, to somewhere past Voronezh. That itself is amazing. Why hasn’t the Russian air force torn the Wagner column to pieces?
The outcome is uncertain
The outcome is however entirely uncertain. The insurrection could still fizzle. It could suffer catastrophic defeat. Wagner could become mired in a stalemate. Or it could succeed in chasing Putin from the Kremlin. Chechen forces are said to be getting ready to stop their progress toward Moscow. But those forces also have reason to be unhappy with Putin, so will they do the necessary for him?
Nor should we regard Prigozhin’s Wagner forces as heroes. They have fought, tortured, and robbed in Syria and several countries in Africa (Central African Republic, Libya, Mali, and Sudan). They participated in the Trump-encouraged hacking of the US presidential election in 2016. Prigozhin is no more of a democrat than Putin. Maybe less.
Insurrection could have consequences, even if it fails
But this insurrection, even if ultimately unsuccessful, will have consequences if it lasts more than a day or two. Putin’s hold on power will look tenuous. Russian troops in Ukraine, already demoralized, may hesitate to follow orders from a military command fighting Russians on the outskirts of Moscow. Some might even join the rebellion.
Ukraine’s army will be emboldened and press its counteroffensive harder. Distracted, the Russian army command could make serious mistakes, of either commission or omission. Fighting on two fronts is never easy, but if one is your home front it is likely to get priority.
Belarus could rise against President Lukashenko, who lacks electoral legitimacy. Constituent republics of the Russian Federation might do likewise. Russia might “rupture.” Moscow could find itself fighting not just with Prigozhin but also with half a dozen other rebellious forces.
Sit tight
The West (read the EU, UK, and US) have little direct say in this situation. Brussels, London, and Washington will want to be cautious, lest they give Russians cause to unite. They will also worry that Putin, his back to the wall and his life at risk, could take desperate measures, like use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine or even against his enemies inside Russia. Until now, that has seemed unlikely, but the man is frightened and may have few other cards to play.
China, India, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, and other countries that Putin has courted may try to come to his rescue, mainly by providing markets for Russian oil. Except for China, their means are limited. Beijing is more likely to wait until it sees the outcome, which will necessarily be a weakened Russia more dependent on Chinese largesse.
Prepare
A Russia without Putin would be an opportunity for the West. If the rebellion succeeds, a united Western front in dealing with Prigozhin will be vital. He is no more principled than Putin. Steering a post-Putin Russia towards complete withdrawal from Ukraine and encouaging emergence of something resembling democracy there will be a major diplomatic challenge. Now is the time to prepare for it.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, June 22
– In FP, Gen. McChrystal says we have to change how we make foreign policy because of AI
– Jonathan Guyer of Vox assesses how close China and Russia are
– CFR has good background on industrial policy
– Dan Drezner criticizes a big but stupid article in NYT
– TNSR has big article on escalation management in Ukraine
– Lawfare tells how to sanction-proof a government
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
RSS - Posts
