Tag: China
Stevenson’s army, February 19 and 20
February 20:
– US warns China about aid to Russia.
– FT notes lack of support for Ukraine in global south.
– US avoided UN fight over Israel/Palestine.
February 19:
– FT has two valuable articles. SAIS prof Mary Sarotte on Putin’s distortions of history and report on planned secret US talks with Taiwan [now exposed]
– Lots on Wagner group — from Politico, from WaPo
– CNAS has a new tracker on Russia developments
– AP poll finds reduced GOP support for Ukraine
– NYT notes new military competition in near space.
– WSJ said some DIA knew of UAPs in Trump admin, but didn’t raise alarms.
– Politico on Germany’s “shadow foreign minister”
– Eli Lake defends Iraq war
– Intercept has warnings for whistleblowers
– FWIW, revelations about Fox News.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 17
– Munich Security Conference begins today. Here’s their background report.
– NYT has more on Chinese civil-military fusion.
– Belarus president sets Ukraine conditions.
– WSJ reports impact on eastern Europe.
– AP review US military adjustments because of Ukraine.
– Commerce & Justice collaborate on security.
– Stimson has a review of Ukraine issues.
– Another debunking of Hersh article on Nordstream2.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 16
– WSJ says Russia’s forces are depleted.
– Politico reports a private comment by Blinken calling Crimea a Russian red line.
– FT reports Latin American countries resist US calls for help for Ukraine.
– Steve Walt lists what Putin got right.
– Defense Priorities has a good collection of comments on Ukraine.
-FP has summary of the rise of China hawks.
-No surprise here: Politico says Chinese balloon is argument for increased defense spending.
– CBO report on the debt ceiling.
-I agree with this op-ed falling for defense budget to be split into capital and operational expenses.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Earthquakes and balloons need diplomacy
The earthquakes that have devastated parts of southern Turkey and northern Syria have already killed upwards of 25,000 people and made millions homeless. The spy balloons the US has been shooting down represent a far less immediate threat to human welfare. But it is the latter, not the former, that are attracting the most attention in Washington.
The balloons
The balloons are certainly not extraterrestrial. We know enough about other planets and moons in our own solar system to be sure there are no civilizatiions nearby capable of deploying them. Other solar systems are too far away to transport objects to ours, unless they possess technology far more advanced than our own. They wouldn’t be using balloons if that is the case.
So the balloons come from another country, most likely China. Whatever its purposes, if Beijing is the originator it has certainly managed to unite Washington as an adversary. It is difficult to picture that the data the balloons gather are worth the price. China’s satellites and its spies in the US should be capable of similar data collection, though perhaps at a higher price. Why would China, which is swimming in money, worry about the price of spying on its main adversary?
Beijing now claims Washington has been using balloons to spy over China. I suppose that is possible, though the same question arises. Why would Washington, even not swimming in money, worry about the price of spying on its main adversary? If it has used balloons, where are the Chinese photos to demonstrate it?
The earthquakes
The earthquakes pose a far less immediate threat to Americans, but they are nevertheless worthy of far more attention than they are getting. They will certainly kill over the next several months many more people, as cold weather, collapsing buildings, and limited medical, food, and water supplies take their toll.
The failure of international assistance to reach northern Syria in a timely way is particularly troubling. Damascus is blaming Hayat Tahrir al Sham, an extremist Islamist group. But it is likely we won’t know the true story for some time to come. Certainly Damascus has no interest in seeing relief reach the millions of oppositionists it has herded into the northwest corner of Syria.
It is impossible to predict the broader consequences of the earthquakes and the inadequate response to them. Turkish President Erdogan faces an election in May. Syrian President Bashar al Assad does not have that problem, as even at the next election in 2028 he is unlikely to allow serious competition if he still remains in power. But both countries already face serious economic problems that the earthquakes are likely to exacerbate.
Consequences
The results are unlikely to be salubrious. The US/China rivalry was already getting overheated. It would be a mistake to allow concern over balloons make it much worse. What is needed now is a return to President Biden’s normal mode of operation: less drama, more diplomacy. It shouldn’t be hard to convince Beijing that the balloons are counterproductive if it wants to maintain some equilibrium in its relations with the US.
As for earthquake relief, the issue is more complicated. Turkey appears to be getting the help it needs and distributing it fairly. Syria however is taking all it can from the UN but distributing virtually none of it to the opposition population that inhabits part of the country’s northwest. There is no reason to believe it will change that habit. Only an aggressive cross-border relief operation from Turkey can avoid a major humanitarian disaster. The UN needs to find the courage to act, which is impossible when Russia and perhaps China oppose doing so in the Security Council.
So here, too, diplomacy may be part of the solution, but so far quiet diplomacy has not worked. Maybe more drama is needed to deal with Syria.
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Stevenson’s army, February 13
– FT reports German government is deeply divided over whether to create an NSC.
– NYT says Erdogan gave amnesty in 2019 for building code violations.
– WSJ says China now says US sent balloons through its airspace.
– NYT has maps on possible offensives in Ukraine.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 10
-WaPo says State Dept has program to publicize Chinese surveillance activities in over 40 countries.-
-WaPo also says Ukrainians say they rely on US for some targeting.
-WaPo says administration is asking Congress for approval to resume top secret use of Ukrainian operatives by US special forces.
-CNAS has backgrounder on Chinese military-civil fusion.
-FP says Starlink has cut off support it says Ukrainians use for drones.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
– House GOP says defense cuts could come from reducing civilian workforce.
– NDU prof hits general who talked of war with China
– MIPP student sees bureaucratic fighting over Okinawa bases.
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