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Peace Picks | September 23 – 27

1. How to Avoid the Arab Resource Curse | September 23, 2019 | 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM | Georgetown University-Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, 3700 O Street, N.W., 241 Intercultural Center (ICC), Washington, DC 20057, USA | Register Here

For over eighty years the Arab region has been deriving massive wealth from its natural resources. Nevertheless, its economic performance has been at the mercy of ebbs and flows of oil prices and its resources have been slowly depleting. The two critical questions are why and how Arab countries might escape the oil curse.

Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies focuses on the unique features of the Arab world to explain the disappointing outcomes of macroeconomic policy. It explores the interaction between oil and institutions to draw policy recommendations on how Arab countries can best exploit their oil revenues to avoid the resource curse. Case studies and contributions from experts provide an understanding of macroeconomic institutions (including their underlying rules, procedures and institutional arrangements) in oil-rich Arab economies and of their political economy environment, which has largely been overlooked in previous research.

The volume offers novel macroeconomic policy propositions for exchange rate regimes, fiscal policy and oil wealth distribution that is more consistent with macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability. These policy reforms, if implemented successfully, could go a long way in helping the resource-rich countries of the Arab region and elsewhere to avoid the oil curse.

Join CCAS for a book launch of the new volume, “Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-rich Arab Economies,” featuring editors and contributing authors to the book.

Featuring

Joseph Sassoon (Discussion Chair) Professor, School of Foreign Service and History Department, Georgetown University

Ibrahim Elbadawi (Contributing Author) Minister of Finance and Economy, Republic of Sudan (joining via video call) 

Shanta Devarajan (Contributing Author) Professor, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University

Hoda Selim (Volume Co-editor) Research Fellow, Economic Research Forum

Nada Eissa (Discussant) Associate Professor, McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University

2. A Climate of Concern: What Climate Change Means for Food Security and Political Stability in Africa | September 25, 2019 | 9:00 AM – 10:30 AM | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here

Please join the CSIS Global Food Security Project for a discussion with a panel of experts on the relationship between climate change, political instability, and food security using current events on the African continent as a lens. The emerging consensus is that climate change poses significant national security threats. However, specific linkages between climate change and political instability are still opaque. As climate change reshapes the agricultural landscape across Africa, there is concern that higher food prices and falling yields will lead to widespread urban unrest and catalyze participation in armed extremist movements.

Preceded by a keynote from Senator Bob Casey (D-PA), the discussion will examine how climate change is interacting with demographic trends in Africa to both heighten risks associated with agriculture in rural areas and those associated with dependence on global markets in urban areas. Our panelists will explore several issues such as how averting crisis in the face of climate change and food insecurity will require:

• Better incorporation of agricultural production and food prices—both global and local—into risk assessments.
• Reinvestment in agricultural and transport infrastructure to reform global agricultural trade to make it more climate-resilient for consumers and producers in the developing world.
• Opportunities to work with regional governments to develop more inclusive responses to manage political and economic instability.
   

FEATURING

Senator Bob Casey

U.S. Senator (D-PA)

Joe Hewitt

Vice President for Policy, U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP)

Amaka Anku

Director & Practice Head, Africa, Eurasia Group

Erin Sikorsky

Deputy Director, Strategic Futures Group, National Intelligence Council, Office of the Director of National Intelligence

Cullen Hendrix

Professor, Korbel School of International Studies (University of Denver) & Director, Sié Chéou-Kang Center for International Security and Diplomacy

3. Beyond the Brink: Escalation Dominance in the U.S.-China Trade War | September 25, 2019 | 2:30 PM – 5:00 PM | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here

The U.S.-China trade war is unprecedented in size, scope, and importance. The potential economic costs of the conflict—and any decoupling it prompts—are enormous, not only to the United States and China but to the global economy. Nearly 18 months since escalation began, the path to resolution is still unclear.

In this event, senior experts will discuss the state of U.S.-China trade relations today and roll out a major CSIS report on escalation dynamics in economic conflict. The event will draw on game theory as well as observations of real-world escalation to help policymakers manage economic conflict with China.

Agenda:
Welcome and Presentation of Findings
Matthew P. Goodman 
Senior Vice President and Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS 

Expert Panel Discussion
Scott Kennedy
Senior Adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics, CSIS

William Reinsch 
Senior Adviser and Scholl Chair in International Business, CSIS

Claire Reade 
Senior Counsel, Arnold & Porter

Stephanie Segal
Senior Fellow, Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS

4. Syria Study Group Releases Final Report | September 26, 2019 | 2:30 PM – 4:30 PM | U.S. Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 | Register Here

Well into its ninth year, the conflict in Syria is a devastating humanitarian tragedy and a source of regional instability with serious implications for U.S. national security. Last year, Congress directed USIP to facilitate the bipartisan Syria Study Group (SSG) in order to examine the current state of the conflict and make recommendations on the military and diplomatic strategy of the United States going forward.

The release of the SSG’s final report follows months of extensive consultations across a broad range of stakeholders and experts, as well as travel to the region. It represents the consensus of all twelve Congressionally-appointed SSG members and offers a bipartisan roadmap for the way ahead.

Please join the Syria Study Group for a panel discussion and presentation of the final report’s assessments and recommendations. The event will include a keynote address from Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), who spearheaded the creation of the bipartisan study group. Stay tuned for additional speaker updates. The list of SSG members can be seen here.

5. The Future of Nuclear Arms Control | September 26, 2019 | 12:15 PM – 1:30 PM | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW | Register Here

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is pleased to invite you to a discussion on The Future of Nuclear Arms Control with Mrs. Mary Robinson, former President of Ireland, and Dr. Gro Harlem Brundtland, former Prime Minister of Norway, of The Elders.

Founded by Nelson Mandela, The Elders are a group of former heads of state and senior United Nations officials who work together for peace, justice and human rights. Robinson and Brundtland will present some of the key insights and recommendations for minimizing the dangers posed by nuclear weapons contained in the recent paper, Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament.

Following the brief presentation, George Perkovich will lead a discussion with Robinson and Brundtland and then open the floor for dialogue with audience participants. A lite lunch will be served.

6. Governing in a Post-Conflict Country in Transition | September 27, 2019 | 10 AM | Johns Hopkins University – Kenney-Herter Auditorium 1740 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, D.C. 20036 | Register Here

Since 2011 and the fall of the Gaddafi regime in 2011, Libya has been going through a difficult and often violent transition. Mr. Serraj, the head of Libya’s Presidential Council and Prime Minister, who assumed office at the end of 2015, will share with us his experience in governing in such difficult post-conflict circumstances, the prospects for the future of Libya, and what the US and International Community can do to help.

Mr. Faiez Sarraj was born in Tripoli, Libya, in 1960. He currently serves as the President of the Presidential Council of Libya and the Prime Minister of the Government of National Accord.

Mr. Sarraj began his political career as a member of the National Dialogue Committee and he was elected to the House of Representatives for the District of Andalus in the city of Tripoli.

Mr. Sarraj had previously worked in the Libyan Social Security Fund, Department of Project Management. He served as a consultant in the Utilities Engineering Consultancy Office in Libya and worked in the private sector for an engineering project management firm. Moreover, Mr. Al-Sarraj worked as the chairman of the Housing Committee in the House of Representatives in Libya and was a member of the Energy Committee in the House of Representatives.

7. War Crimes in Syria: Identifying Perpetrators and Seeking Justice | September 27, 2019 | 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM | Middle East Institute, 1763 N Street NW Washington, District of Columbia 20036 | Register Here

The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a joint panel with the Pro-Justice to launch the new book, Blacklist: Violations Committed by the Most Prominent Syrian Regime Figures and How to Bring Them to Justice. 

Blacklist identifies and provides detailed information on nearly 100 individuals accused of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in Syria over the past eight years. The book also sheds light on the crimes themselves and outlines potential political and judicial avenues available to bring the perpetrators to justice.

A panel of experts will delve into prospects for promoting transitional justice and accountability in Syria as part of any post-conflict scenario. 

Speakers:

• Anne Barnard is a New York Times journalist who covers climate and environment for the Metro desk.
• Wael Sawah is the president and director of Pro-Justice.
• Charles Lister is a senior fellow and director of the Countering Terrorism and Extremism program at the Middle East Institute.
• Joyce Karam (moderator) is the Washington Correspondent for The National, a leading English daily based in Abu Dhabi, and an adjunct professor at George Washington University, school of Political Science.