Tag: Climate change
Bid farewell to the treasons of Trump
It’s been hard, but we’ve almost made it to the other side. Now comes a time for rebuilding, or in Biden terms building back better.
Domestic issues will take first priority: the epidemic, the economy, social cleavages. Biden will need to get a lot more needles into arms, a lot more jobs returned and created, a lot of injustices to black and brown people, immigrants, women, college students, and LGBTQ people rectified. Trump’s white supremacist and 2nd Amendment supporters need to know that LAW AND ORDER applies to them as well as to everyone else. Successful prosecution of the January 6 insurrectionists is critical, including an eventual conviction of Trump in the Senate.
Current Majority Leader McConnell is not only open to that possibility but has blamed Trump for provoking the January 6 insurrection:
The mob was fed lies.
This is important, as it opens the a possibility of purging Trumpism from the Republican Party and eventually also from the Senate and House. Remnants will persist, but American politics will return to a much better place if Republicans and Democrats once again come to share a common factual basis rather than being distracted constantly by Trump’s lies.
International issues will be in capable hands at the State Department, National Security Council, and the Defense Department. But they can’t do everything at once. The early moves have been telegraphed: re-entry into the Iran nuclear deal (hard) and the Paris climate agreement (easy) as well as an effort to negotiate with Russia extended limits on strategic nuclear weapons. But the enemy also gets a vote on priorities. Surprise challenges could come from North Korea, China, or Islamist extremists. Those should not distract the Bidenists from their chosen path: to restore American leadership on a multilateral basis and make the world order more rules-based than it has been for the last four years.
My own focus is on what this means for the Balkans and the Middle East.
In the Balkans it is clear: Washington needs to develop a common vision with the European Union and its member states, then implement it with vigor to stem the tide of Russian and Chinese influence and hasten the day when the countries of the region will all qualify for accession to the EU.
In the Middle East, the way forward is far less clear, because the region lacks a clear direction and American interest has declined. I might prefer that the US favor democracy and human rights, but the fact is there are few Middle East countries in which we’ll find much prospect of either. The trick will be cooperating with autocratic friends (read Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and others) without encouraging their human rights abuses. Biden is already committed, as I understand it, to ending US support for the war in Yemen, which will displease Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
The Israel/Palestine equation will be particularly difficult to solve, as Trump has intentionally lessened the prospects for the two-state solution America has favored. Biden won’t want to reverse the move of the US Embassy to Jerusalem, and the so-called Abrahamic accords between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain he welcomed. But he could tilt in favor of the Palestinians by renewing US contributions to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) and re-establishing a consulate in East Jerusalem, making it clear it will become an embassy once a Palestinian state is formed and recognized.
The world will be watching. Expectations of Biden are high. Disappointments and failures are inevitable, but I do hope America can return to its proper role as a leader in the democratic world!
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Peace Picks | December 14 â December 18, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. After Flood and Revolution: Sudanese Responses to a Lagging Transitional Government | December 14, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:15 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
In 2018, the Sudanese Revolution gained prominence on social media and drew international attention to the movement taking place against Omar Al-Bashirâs 30 year dictatorship in the country. Widespread protests were sparked by drastic policies meant to prevent economic collapse such as the slashing of bread and fuel subsidies. Two years later, grievances remain as Sudan continues to face a multitude of issues including record breaking floods, poor governance, incoming Ethiopians and Eritreans fleeing conflict, and persistent militia violence. The Sudanese people have begun to lose patience with the Transitional Governmentâs inability to sufficiently reform the system and respond to crises.
How has Sudan adapted to both environmental and political upheaval? What changes have occured since Omar Al-Bashir was ousted? How does Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok plan to move forward with the reconstruction of Sudanâs constitutional system, and how could the violence in Ethiopia and Eritrea affect that? In what ways, do we see Sudanâs relationship with foreign allies changing amidst this reconstruction? In this panel, the Middle East Institute (MEI) brings together experts to explore what the future of Sudan looks like, and what the revolution succeeded and failed to bring the people.
Speakers
Ismaâil Kushkush: Independent Sudanese journalist
Baha Sharief: Women’s economic empowerment advocate
JĂ©rĂŽme Tubiana: Africa desk director, International Federation for Human Rights
Mohamed Soliman, moderator: Non-resident scholar, MEI
Additional speakers TBA
2. Reducing the Nuclear Threat: A 5-Point Plan | December 14, 2020 | 1:00 – 2:00 PM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
A global nuclear arms race is underway, and the threat of nuclear war is growing. Drivers of escalationâballistic missile defense, nonstrategic nuclear weapons, and Chinaâs nuclear modernizationâcannot be easily managed through treaties, so what can be done to mitigate the real risks of the nuclear contest?
Please join us for a conversation featuring James Acton, as he shares insights from a new Carnegie report, âRevamping Nuclear Arms Control: Five Near-Term Proposals,â co-authored with Carnegie Endowment scholars Thomas MacDonald and Pranay Vaddi. Acton will be joined by Kristin Ven Bruusgaard of the University of Oslo. Anita Friedt, who served as a U.S. principal deputy assistant secretary of state, will moderate.
Speakers
James M. Acton: Jessica T. Mathews Chair, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Kristin Ven Bruusgaard: postdoctoral fellow in the Political Science Department at the University of Oslo.
Anita Friedt: former U.S. principal deputy assistant secretary of state.
3. Ten Years After the Arab Spring: Middle East Writers Reflect on the Arab Uprising | December 14, 2020 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute’s Arts and Culture Center and the Alan Cheuse International Writers Center at George Mason University are pleased to mark the 10th anniversary of the Arab Spring with a series of monthly talks with leading writers from the region. Ten Years After The Arab Spring, which launches this December, will feature the voices of award-winning writers from Arab Spring countries reflecting on the past ten years through the lens of their writings and personal experiences.
The inaugural event will feature award-winning Tunisian writer Yamen Manai discussing his newly translated novel The Ardent Swarm (originally published as L’Amas Ardent in 2017). In his novel, Manai celebrates Tunisiaâs rich oral culture, a tradition abounding in wry, often fatalistic humor. The book is a stirring allegory about a country in the aftermath of a revolution, told through the simple and hermetic life of Sidi, a bee whisperer.
Speakers
Yamen Manai was born in 1980 in Tunis and currently lives in Paris. Both a writer and an engineer, Manai explores in his prose the intersections of past and present, and tradition and technology.
Matthew Davis is the founding director of the Alan Cheuse International Writers Center. Heâs the author of When Things Get Dark: A Mongolian Winterâs Tale and his work has appeared in the New Yorker, the Atlantic, the Washington Post Magazine and Guernica, among other places.
4. Vanishing Media Freedoms Across South Asia | December 15, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:30 AM ET | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
Across South Asia, an already challenging climate for free media appears to have further deteriorated in the past year. The 2020 World Press Freedom Index has seen India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka slip down the annual rankings, with all four South Asian countries in the bottom third worldwide. The challenges to free media in South Asia are myriadâparticularly threats to journalistsâ safety and freedom, repressive actions and overt censorship by governments, unravelling business models, and a chaotic online environment. In many cases, the coronavirus pandemic has exacerbated the threats that journalists and media outlets face as economic pressures have intensified and governments seek to further restrict media freedoms.
Speakers
Tamanna Salikuddin, opening remarks: Director, South Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace
Shahidul Alam: Managing Director, Drik Picture Library Ltd. (Bangladesh)
Dilrukshi Handunnetti: Executive Director, Center for Investigative Reporting (Sri Lanka)
Siddharth Varadarajan: Founding Editor, The Wire (India)
Cyril Almeida, moderator: Visiting Senior Expert, U.S. Institute of Peace; Former Assistant Editor, Dawn Newspaper (Pakistan)
5. Foreign Policy is Climate Policy: New Modes of Multilateralism & the Call for a More Equitable and Just World | December 16, 2020 | 3:30 – 5:00 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
How can the foreign policy community harness the transformative power of the new leadership coalitions that have emerged to strengthen the UNFCCC processâan indispensable mode of diplomacy? And as decision-makers push forward on climate action, how can they incorporate the increasingly compelling calls for social and racial justice into efforts to address climate change?
Speakers
Lauren Herzer Risi, introduction: Project Director, Environmental Change and Security Program
Maxine Burkett, moderator: Global Fellow; Professor, William S. Richardson School of Law, University of Hawaiâi
Jennifer Austin: Director of Policy and Strategy, COP26 High Level Climate Champions team
Julie Cerqueira: Executive Director, U.S. Climate Alliance
Rt Hon David Lammy: Member of Parliament for Tottenham, Shadow Secretary of State for Justice, United Kingdom
Elan Strait: Director, U.S. Climate Campaigns, World Wildlife Fund; Manager, We Are Still In
6. The Creeping Threat of Climate Change | December 16, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Climate change is slowly stamping an imprint on Egyptâs environment, culture, and economy. The most obvious of these challenges is the rising scarcity of water. Egypt is already one of the worldâs most water scarce countries; while the UN assesses water scarcity at 1,000 cm3 per person annually, Egypt has less than 560 cm3 per person. Rapid population growth, urbanization, desertification, and unpredictable weather patterns are all taking an unrelenting toll on the countryâs strained water resources, while fear is climbing over loss of water from the Nile if the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam holds back water during droughts.
Just as worrisome is rising heat. This threatens health, water supplies and, in a country where over 30 percent of the labour force is directly involved in agriculture, Egyptâs harvests.
While there has been much work done on water conservation, climate change mitigation policy is unclear. Much of the action is handled by the private sector which is not always invested in the strictest environmental standards. Is it possible to tackle the oncoming threat while balancing mitigation with the need for development?
Please join us for the first of a series of events on climate change mitigation, part of the Middle East Instituteâs Egypt programâs upcoming work on hidden threats and imminent challenges.
Speakers
Abla Abdel Latif: Chair, Presidential Advisory Council for Economic Development; executive director and director of research, Egyptian Center for Economic Studies
Sarah El-Battouty: Founder and chairperson, ECOnsult
Mirette F. Mabrouk, moderator: Senior fellow and director, Egypt program, MEI
Additional speakers TBD
7. China’s Influence on Conflict Dynamics in South Asia | December 16, 2020 | 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM ET | United States Institute for Peace| Register Here
Chinaâs expanding presence in South Asia is reshaping the region, and along the way exacerbating tensions in regional politics and U.S.-China relations from the Himalayan mountains to the Indian Ocean. As the United States works to fulfill its vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific region and to respond to a more assertive China, the final report from USIPâs bipartisan Senior Study Group (SSG) on China and South Asia serves as a road map for the next U.S. administration to advance the Indo portion of that vision.
The SSGâs final reportâthe fourth in a seriesâexamines Chinaâs influence in South Asian conflict zones and fragile states from a variety of angles. Drawing on the insights of the groupâs senior experts, former policymakers, and retired diplomats, the report includes top-level findings and actionable recommendations.
Join the co-chairs and members of the SSG as they discuss their work and the reportâs conclusions. The conversation will tackle topics such as U.S. interests in South Asia amid Chinaâs growing role, Beijingâs interests in and approach toward the region, China-Pakistan relations, China-India relations, and Chinaâs relations with the smaller South Asian states.
Speakers
Jennifer Staats, introductory remarks: Director of East and Southeast Asia Programs, U.S. Institute of Peace; USIP China Senior Study Group Series Executive Director
Richard G. Olson, report briefing: Senior Advisor, United States Institute of Peace; Co-Chair, USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group
Randall G. Schriver, report briefing: Chairman of the Board, The Project 2049 Institute; Co-Chair, USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group
Alyssa Ayres: Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia, Council on Foreign Relations; Member, USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group
Patrick Cronin: Asia-Pacific Security Chair, Hudson Institute; Member, USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group
Sameer Lalwani: Senior Fellow and Director of the South Asia Program, Stimson Center; Member, USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group
Anja Manuel: Co-Founder and Partner, Rice, Hadley, Gates & Manuel LLC; Member, USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group
Daniel Markey: Senior Research Professor in International Relations, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies; Member, USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group
Tamanna Salikuddin: Director of South Asia Programs, United States Institute of Peace; Member, USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group
Vikram J. Singh: Senior Advisor, Asia Center, United States Institute of Peace; Member, USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group
Jacob Stokes: Senior Policy Analyst, China Program, U.S. Institute of Peace; Project Director, USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group
8. The Biden Administration and IranâConfrontation or Accommodation | December 17, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
Iran will almost certainly be a top priority of the incoming Biden Administration. Not only are dealing with Iranâs nuclear ambitions expected to be high on the U.S. agenda; but escalating tensions on the ground between Iran, Israel and the United States in 2020 may well intensify in 2021 and the United States will need to prepared to contain them.
How do Tehran and Jerusalem intend to approach the new administration; what priorities, calculations, and attitudes will shift? And how will the Biden foreign policy team deal with the complex challenge of reentering and/or renegotiating the Iran nuclear accord as well as engaging the other international parties still committed to the JPCOA? Finally, what role will domestic politics in Washington, Tehran, and Jerusalem play in shaping events as they unfold?
Speakers
Aaron David Miller: senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, focusing on U.S. foreign policy.
Suzanne Maloney: vice president and director of the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. She previously worked on Middle East issues in the State Department and in the private sector and has published three books on Iran.
Karim Sadjadpour: senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on Iran and U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East.
Michael Singh: Lane-Swig Senior Fellow and managing director at The Washington Institute and a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council.
9. The Arab Spring, Ten Years On: What Have We Learned and Where Are We Going?| December 17, 2020 | 4:00 – 5:15 PM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
The popular protests that unfolded across the Arab region in 2011 seemed poised to usher in a new era of freedom and democracy. Ten years on, however, the future does not seem as bright. Tunisia is the only Arab country to have successfully transitioned into a democracy; other countries have either reverted to strong authoritarian rule or have become mired in devastating civil wars.
The underlying socio-economic and political factors that led to the âArab Springâ continue to drive unrest across the region. The recent protests in Algeria, Iraq, and Sudan show that social activists have learned from the mistakes of the past and adopted new tactics, forcing those in power to make unexpected concessions. In turn, Arab leaders have also adapted, fighting back calls for change with targeted propaganda campaigns and repressive crackdowns.
The Brookings Doha Center invites you to attend a webinar that takes stock of the Arab Spring and its impact on the region over the past decade. The discussion will address the following questions: On balance, what was the outcome of the Arab Spring? How have Arab social movements and leaders evolved in the years since? Can we expect new protests in countries experiencing economic and political strains? And how can the region address the demands of its people and build an inclusive social contract?
Speakers
Joseph Bahout: Director at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs – American University of Beirut
Lina Khatib: Director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme – Chatham House
Michele Dunne: Director of the Middle East Program – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Nader Kabbani, moderator: Director of Research – Brookings Doha CenterSenior Fellow – Global Economy and Development
10. Democracy and Corruption in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Two Years into the Tshisekedi Administration | December 18, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
Nearly two years after the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) saw a peaceful transfer of power to President FĂ©lix Tshisekedi following a nevertheless flawed election, numerous significant political and economic developments have transpired in the country. The presidentâs chief of staff, Vital Kamerhe, was convicted on corruption charges; violent conflicts have increased in the eastern DRC; civil society has mounted increasing anti-corruption campaigns; and political maneuvering is already starting in preparation for the 2023 elections. Meanwhile, in a bipartisan letter, the U.S. Senate highlighted the need for urgent anti-corruption and electoral reforms in the country and the International Monetary Fund is considering a significant loan to stabilize the countryâs economy, pending anti-corruption reforms.
Speakers
Michael E. OâHanlon, moderator: Director of Research – Foreign PolicyCo-Director – Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Africa Security InitiativeSenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and TechnologyThe Sydney Stein, Jr. Chair
Sasha Lezhnev: Deputy Director of Policy – The Sentry Project
Mvemba P. Dizolele: Senior Associate (Non-Resident) – CSIS
John G. Tomaszewski: Professional Staffer – Senate Foreign Relations Committee
AndrĂ© Wameso: Ambassador – Democratic Republic of the Congo
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Stevenson’s army, December 7
Politco warns that John Kerry’s ill-defined role as climate czar and NSC member is likely to lead to clashes over personalities and policies. That’s always the case with positions not written into law with prescribed authorities.
FP says incoming NSA Jake Sullivan was part of a study group that interviewed ordinary Americans to develop ideas for foreign policy.
 The resulting Carnegie Foundation report urges policies linking foreign policies to domestic ones.
Congress has a busy week. Past experience suggests that the “finish up and go home” spirit will lead to the necessary compromises, thought the budget may need a one-week extension of the CR.
Resign or be fired? AG Barr will leave early.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to âStevensonâs armyâ via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevensonâs army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. Youâll get an email confirming your join request. Click âJoin This Groupâ and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The nightmare is over, now the hard work begins
I spent an hour this morning on Zoom with Italian colleagues at the Institute of International Affairs (IAI) talking about the American election and its consequences for foreign policy. Here are the points I prepared for them,
most of them all too obvious Iâm afraid:
- While Biden is better informed and experienced on foreign policy than any president in decades, his most immediate priorities will be domestic: first and foremost stopping Covid-19 infections and moving as quickly as possible to revive the American economy, which is still in bad shape, and fix our social cleavages, which are severe.
- That said, he is putting in place a formidable foreign policy team: Tony Blinken, Jake Sullivan, Avril Haines and Linda Thomas-Greenfield are among our finest. Janet Yellen at Treasury will make an excellent counterpart on the economic side.
- Jake and Tony are both strongly committed to a revived domestic economy and solutions to Americaâs social challenges as prerequisites for a strong international role. You can expect them to be less transactional but just as aggressive as Trump on trade and investment issues, where America will need to satisfy more of the demands of its domestic producers.
- Missing so far from the Biden team is the Secretary of Defense. Iâd still bet on Michele Fluornoy, but I admit I have little idea why she hasnât been named yet. Defense industry ties may be the reason.
- Whoever gets Defense, Biden will seek to reinvigorate trans-Atlantic ties. He has a basically positive attitude towards NATO and Americaâs allies, whom he views as force multipliers whose basic values are aligned with ours.
- He is not opposed, as Trump was, to the European Union. I doubt he will prioritize a free trade agreement with the UK and might even try to revive the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with Europe, or something like it.
- Willingness of the US to return to the JCPOA will help his effort to renew the Alliance, but it will require reciprocal Iranian willingness to return to the status quo ante. Iâm not convinced Tehran will be willing before the June presidential election, and maybe not even after.
- Biden will want to cooperate quickly with Europe in responding to Russiaâs regional challenges in the Baltics, the Balkans, and especially Ukraine, though he will be hampered on Ukraine by the allegations against his son Hunter.
- The US will return, likely on Day 1, to the Paris Climate Change Agreement, which I trust will be a welcome move in Europe.
- The big looming problem for both the US and Europe is how to meet Chinaâs global economic and political challenge. Biden will want to pursue both cooperation and competition with China.
- He is not interested in a new cold war, but he will be far more committed globally to democratic values and human rights than Trump has been. He will not be sword dancing in Riyadh, encouraging President Xi to imprison Uighurs, or staying silent about repression in Hong Kong.
- Renewed American support for human rights and democracy will unsettle relations not only with China but also with the Gulf, Israel, Brazil, and possibly with Hungary and Poland.
- Biden will not be able to restore everything to where things stood four years ago. Heâll need to prioritize.
- But I think all those who want to see American global leadership based on a rational assessment of both values and interests will feel a lot better about things on January 21 than they did on November 2. The nightmare is over, but the hard work is just beginning.
In addition to foreign policy, the Italians pressed me on the future of the Republican Party and reports that black men and Hispanics shifted towards Trump. I responded more or less this way:
- The numbers are still iffy, but at least some of the shift among Hispanics was due to mostly white Venezuelans and Cubans who fled socialist countries and were frightened when Trump told them Biden was a socialist. Some Latinos in Texas appear to have shifted as well, possibly due to the employment impact of border wall construction.
- The Republican Party now has a choice to make between continuing as a right-wing extremist and racist party or reverting to right-of-center social and economic conservatism. Trump will try to keep the party on the former track and can boast of an enormous turnout of voters, and relative victories in the House races, to help him. So far, only Senator Romney seems courageous enough to point in the direction of more conventional conservatism. We’ll have to wait and see which direction Republicans choose.
On the domestic side, I also emphasized the importance of the January 5 Senate run-off elections in Georgia, which will determine how far Biden can go on the legislative front.
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Peace Picks | November 16 â November 20, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Corruption in Kyrgyzstan: The Path Forward | November 16, 2020 | 9:00-10:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
It has been over a month since political upheaval in Kyrgyzstan resulted in the collapse of the government of now-former President Sooronbay Jeenbekov and the rise of Sadyr Japarov, a former convict, to the position of acting president. With new presidential elections now planned for January, the countryâs political landscape is changing fast, with Japarov implausibly promising an anti-corruption campaignâa key concern of those who protested on the streets in October.
This dramatic shift is driven by growing anger over corruption and poor governanceâlaid particularly bare by the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, despite the publicâs demands for stronger government accountability, corrupt organized crime is still flourishing and poised to have increased influence in a plausible Japarov presidency.
Please join us for a discussion on Kyrgyzstanâs legacies of corruption, prospects for better governance, and popular responses to the recent social and political upheaval the country has witnessed, all based on a new, groundbreaking report released by RFE/RL, Kloop, and OCCRP.
Speakers:
Shirin Aitmatova: former member of Kyrgyz Parliament and a leader of Umut 2020 – a peopleâs movement that focuses on anti-corruption investigations.
Asel Doolotkeldieva: associate research fellow at the OSCE Academy in Bishkek. Her research examines social mobilization, religiosity and gender, democratization and institution-building, rent-seeking from natural resources, and migration in Kyrgyzstan. She holds a PhD from the University of Exeter.
Bruce Pannier: senior Central Asian affairs correspondent, who writes the Qishloq Ovozi blog and appears regularly on the Majlis podcast for RFE/RL.
Carl Schreck: RFE/RL’s enterprise editor. He has covered politics, crime, business, and sports in Russia and the former Soviet Union for nearly 20 years, including nearly a decade while based in Moscow.
Paul Stronski: senior fellow in Carnegieâs Russia and Eurasia Program, where his research focuses on the relationship between Russia and neighboring countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
2. Trans-Atlantic Cooperation and the International Order After the US Election | November 16, 2020 | 9:45 – 11:45 AM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
Over the past four years, the United States has often abdicated its traditional leadership role, leaving allies across the Atlantic to fend for themselves. Now, as Americans and Europeans alike process the results of the U.S. election, significant practical and political questions about the future of the trans-Atlantic relationship and the global order abound. With Joe Biden in the White House, will European leaders be willing to once again rely on the U.S. as an ally? While a Biden administration will certainly be more friendly to trans-Atlantic relations and multilateralism, will this shift be lasting or merely a lapse amid an increasingly isolationist era of American foreign policy? With Republicans likely to retain control of the Senate, what impact would a divided government have on the new administrationâs foreign policy?
On Monday, November 16, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host a conference to consider these questions and other implications of the next U.S. administration for the future of the international order and trans-Atlantic cooperation. Questions from the audience will follow the discussion.
Schedule and Speakers:
Welcoming Remarks: 9:45 AM – 10:00 AM
Suzanne Maloney: Vice President and Director – Foreign Policy
Henry Alt-Haaker: Senior Vice President, Strategic Partnerships and Robert Bosch Academy – Robert Bosch Stiftung
Panel Discussion: 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM
James Goldgeier: Robert Bosch Senior Visiting Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Fiona Hill: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Stormy-Annika Mildner: Head of Department, External Economic Policy – Federation of German Industries
Rachel Rizzo: Director of Programs – Truman National Security Project; Adjunct Fellow, Transatlantic Program – Center for a New American Security
Marietje Schaake: International Policy Director – Cyber Policy Center at Stanford University
Constanze StelzenmĂŒller, moderator: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Keynote: 11:00 AM – 11:45 AM
Nathalie Tocci: Director – Istituto Affari Internazionali; Honorary Professor – University of TĂŒbingen
Thomas Wright, moderator: Director – Center on the United States and Europe; Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Project on International Order and Strategy
3. Assessing Perceptions of Affected Communities in Northern Iraq on Peace, Justice and Governance | November 16, 2020 | 11:30 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Councilâs Iraq Initiative and the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative on Monday, November 16 from 11:30 am â 12:30 pm ET presenting a timely survey which offers a snapshot of the perceptions and attitudes in northern Iraq about peace and justice within communities affected by the conflict with the Islamic State (IS). The discussion will feature Abulrazzaq Al-Saiedi, research manager, Iraq country expert and policy advisor at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, Abbas Kadhim, director of the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Council, Phuong Pham, director of evaluation and implementation science at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, Patrick Vinck, research director at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, and moderated by Kirsten Fontenrose, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
The report (available in Arabic) by the Harvard Humanitarian Initiativeâs Peace and Human Rights Data Program, details how northern Iraqi communities targeted by the Islamic State (IS) are denied justice. Based on 5,213 interviews conducted in 2019 among a representative sample of internally displaced persons in northern Iraq and residents of the city of Mosul and surrounding areas, the research documents a severe lack of trust in official institutions, particularly in the Government of Iraq itself, stemming in large part from the belief that these institutions do not act in the best interest of the population.
Speakers:
Abulrazzaq Al-Saiedi: Research Manager, Iraq Country Expert, and Policy Advisor, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative
Abbas Kadhim: Director, Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council
Phuong Pham: Director of Evaluation and Implementation Science, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative
Patrick Vinck: Research Director, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative
Kirsten Fontenrose, moderator: Director, Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, Atlantic Council
4. Moldovaâs Presidential Elections | November 16, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:15 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
On November 15, incumbent Moldovan President Igor Dodon will face pro-European opposition candidate Maia Sandu in a national run-off election. Sandu has promised to fight corruption, poverty, and reform the criminal justice system. Dodon is considered the most pro-Russian candidate, advocating to make Russian compulsory in schools and to strengthen Moldovaâs strategic partnership with Russia. Amb. William Hill, former Moldovan Minister of Foreign Affairs Nicu Popescu, and DGAP Research Fellow Cristina Gherasimov will consider the results of the runoff election, its implications, and how the next president in Chisinau will manage Moldova-Russian relations.
Speakers:
William H. Hill: Global Fellow; Former Professor of National Security Strategy, National War College, Washington D.C.
Nicu Popescu: Director, Wider Europe Programme, European Council on Foreign Relations
Cristina Gherasimov: Research Fellow, Robert Bosch Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia, DGAP
Matthew Rojansky, moderator: Director, Kennan Institute
5. US and Iranian Strategies for a Biden Administration | November 17, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The looming arrival of the Joe Biden administration in January 2021 provides the leadership in Tehran with an opportunity to seek a qualitatively different relationship with the United States. President-elect Biden has already expressed a desire to salvage the 2015 nuclear deal, which the Trump administration abandoned in 2018. While Tehran awaits to see what, if any, conditions the Biden team has for the resumption of the diplomatic track and removal of US-led sanctions, a policy fight is already under way inside the Iranian state about the future of US-Iran relations.
The American question in Tehran is not just a foreign policy file but ultimately linked to the question of whether the Islamic Republic opts to continue a revolutionary and militant foreign policy or settles for a path of de-escalation with Washington and other rivals. How much of this policy competition in Tehran will shape Washingtonâs next steps vis-Ă -vis Iran?
To discuss these matters and other key challenges in the path of US-Iran relations in the coming Biden administration, we are delighted to host a panel of experts.
Speakers:
Jon Alterman: Senior vice president, Zbigniew Brzezinski chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and director, Middle East Program, CSIS
Hannah Kaviani:Staffer, RFE/RL’s Persian language service, Radio Farda
Behnam Ben Taleblu: Senior fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Alex Vatanka (moderator): Senior fellow and director, Iran program, MEI
6. The Future of Palestinian Politics under a Biden Administration | November 17, 2020; November 19, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 12:45 PM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Former Vice President Joe Bidenâs election victory over President Donald Trump is likely to produce a major reset in American-Palestinian relations as well as in Washingtonâs role in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking. No U.S. president had done more to isolate Palestinians and delegitimize Palestinian national aspirations than Trump. Meanwhile, Biden has pledged to reverse the most destructive aspects of Trumpâs policies and restore U.S.-Palestinian relations in the hope of salvaging what remains of a two-state solution.
Yet even as the Palestinians breathe a collective sigh of relief at Trumpâs departure, the Palestiniansâ internal house remains in a state of disarray and decline. The Palestinian national movement, now at one of the lowest points in its history, continues to be racked by political division, institutional stagnation, and a lack of strategic clarity.
To shed light on these and other issues, the Middle East Institute (MEI) invites you to join a two-part webinar series on the Future of Palestinian Politics Under a Biden Administration, moderated by MEIâs Khaled Elgindy
Speakers:
Part 1 â Reviving Palestinian Political Life
Tareq Baconi: Senior analyst, International Crisis Group
Sam Bahour: Ramallah-based business consultant
Mustafa Barghouti:General secretary, Palestinian National Initiative
Noura Erakat: Human rights attorney; assistant professor, Rutgers University
Khaled Elgindy, moderator: Senior fellow and director, Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Part 2 â Toward a Palestinian National Strategy
Dana ElKurd: Researcher, Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies
Mariam Barghouti: Political commentator and writer
Yousef Munayyer: Non-resident fellow, MEI
Nasser AlKidwa: Former Permanent Observer of Palestine to the United Nations and Palestinian Foreign Minister
Khaled Elgindy, moderator: Senior fellow and director, Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
7. Building a Climate Resilient and Just Future for All: Delivering Action and Ambition | November 17, 2020 | 1:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought resilience to the fore. It has laid bare the vulnerability of our societies and economies and exposed the lack of risk planning in countries. During this event, speakers will focus on the need to carry out ambitious actions on building resilience and identify what can be done to set up a decade of action.
This high level event will bring together the outcomes of the Regional Resilience Dialogues and Race to Zero resilience-focused dialogues and highlight how to advance the action of non-state actors and initiatives to deliver outcomes at COP26 and beyond. The High Level Champions, Gonzalo Muñoz and Nigel Topping, will also use this event to share their developing plans for a Race for Resilience campaign as a sister to the Race to Zero campaign to deliver a decade of action.
This dialogue will build upon previous Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action roundtables held at COP23, COP24 and COP25 events, the Global Commission on Adaptation, and from the UN Climate Action Summit and the Call to Action on Adaptation and Resilience.
Speakers:
Opening Remarks
Nigel Topping: High Level Climate Action Champion, UK, COP26
Gonzalo Muñoz: High Level Climate Action Champion, Chile, COP26
Panel Discussions
Panel 1: The Challenge: Why action on Resilience is a must?
Johan Rockstrom: Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Professor in Earth System Science, University of Potsdam; Chair of the Global Resilience Partnership Advisory Council
Saleemul Huq: Director, International Centre for Climate Change & Development (ICCCAD); Chair of Resilience track for UN Food Systems Summit 2021
Emma Howard-Boyd: UK Commissioner, Global Commission on Adaptation and Chair of the Environment Agency
Wanjira Mathai, moderator: Vice President and Regional Director for Africa, World Resources Institute
Panel 2: Opportunities for Ambitious Action
Kathy Baughman McLeod: Senior Vice President and Director, Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center; Atlantic Council, representing the Extreme Heat Resilience Alliance (EHRA)
Zakia Naznin: Programme Manager, Concern Worldwide, representing the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance
Karen Sack: CEO, Ocean Unite, representing Ocean Risk and Resilience Action Alliance
Wanjira Mathai, moderator: Vice President and Regional Director for Africa, World Resources Institute
Panel 3: Delivering Ambition and a Decade of Action
Julio Cordano: Head, Department of Climate Change, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Chile and COP 25 Chilean Presidency Representative
Patrick Verkooijen: Chief Executive Officer, Global Center on Adaptation
Anne-Marie Trevelyan: UK International Champion on Adaptation and Resilience, COP26
Wanjira Mathai, moderator: Vice President and Regional Director for Africa, World Resources Institute
Closing Remarks
Nigel Topping: High Level Climate Action Champion, UK, COP26
Gonzalo Muñoz: High Level Climate Action Champion, Chile, COP26
8. Lebanon: Out with the Old, In with the What? | November 17, 2020 | 16:00 – 17:00 EET | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
While Lebanon’s ruling elite continues to delay the formation of a new cabinet under Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, French President Emmanuel Macron is growing impatient as he watches his initiative and timeline for reforms crumble. The Trump Administration, meanwhile, is still ramping up sanctions on Hezbollah’s allies in government. Where does the government formation stand today? What remains of the French initiative? How might U.S. foreign policy towards Lebanon shift under President-Elect Joe Biden?
Speakers:
Ishac Diwan: Chaire d’Excellence Monde Arabe at Paris Sciences et Lettres and is a professor at the Ăcole Normale SupĂ©rieure, Paris
Dorothée Schmid: senior research fellow and heads the Turkey and Middle East Program at the French Institute of International Relations.
Randa Slim: senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and a non-resident fellow at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced and International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute.
Maha Yahya: Director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, where her research focuses on citizenship, pluralism, and social justice in the aftermath of the Arab uprisings.
9. What Does the World Expect of President-elect Joe Biden? | November 17, 2020 | 2:30 – 4:00 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
The next U.S. Administration faces a complicated, volatile world. Please join Wilson Center experts on Russia, China, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and Latin America as they interview colleagues and experts on the ground in their regions to discuss what a Biden Administration means in terms of our relationships around the globe.
Our experts will host a spirited conversation on the foreign policy expectations and challenges confronting the next President of the United States.
Speakers:
Jane Harman: Director, President, and CEO, Wilson Center
Cynthia J. Arnson: Director, Latin American Program
Robert Daly: Director, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States
Daniel S. Hamilton: Director, Global Europe Program; Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation Distinguished Fellow
Merissa Khurma: Program Manager, Middle East Program
Monde Muyangwa: Africa Program Director
Matthew Rojansky: Director, Kennan Institute
Duncan Wood: Director, Mexico Institute
John Milewski, moderator: Director of Digital Programming; Moderator, Wilson Center NOW
10. Exceptions to the Rules: Civilian Harm and Accountability in the Shadow Wars | November 19, 2020 | 9:30 – 11:00 AM ET | Stimson Center | Register Here
Nearly two decades after 9/11, the CIA and Special Operations Forces have become increasingly involved in U.S. counterterrorism operations around the world âoften operating in the shadows and under a growing set of broad exceptions to the rules that govern the lawful use of lethal force, civilian harm mitigation, transparency, and accountability. Join the Stimson Center and the Center for Civilians in Conflict for a discussion of these programs and the launch of a new report examining the tradeoffs involved with normalizing these exceptions, and offering concrete recommendations for increasing public awareness and strengthening oversight and accountability.
Speakers:
Daniel Mahanty: Director, US Program, Center for Civilians in Conflict
Rita Siemion: Director, National Security Advocacy, Human Rights First
Rachel Stohl, Vice President, Stimson Center
Stephen Tankel: Associate Professor, American University; Adjunct Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security
11. Elections in the Black Sea Region | November 19, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Elections are taking place across the Black Sea, including in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. The three countries have Association Agreements with the EU and have benefitted from significant Western support over the last years. All three countries also share the problems of separatist and frozen conflicts on their territories that affect their security and stability. Elections outcomes in all three countries will have important implications for the foreign policy orientation of the countries and their role in the Black Sea region. Elections in the region coincide with the COVID-19 pandemic and an economic crisis with potentially devastating effects for the region. The Middle East Institute (MEI) Frontier Europe Initiative is pleased to host a discussion with the Ambassadors of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine to the United States on the election process, outcomes, and implications for the Black Sea region.
How did the election process and the results fair out for Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine? What are the main challenges around the elections in the context of the pandemic and economic crisis? How will the election results impact their foreign policies in the years to come?
Speakers:
David Bakradzeâ: Georgian Ambassador to the United States
Eugen Caras: Moldovan Ambassador to the United States
Yelchenko Volodymyrâ: Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States
Iulia Jojaâ, moderator: Senior Fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative
12. RESOLVE Network 2020 Global Forum: Violent Extremism in 2020 and Beyond | November 19, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:15 AM ET | USIP | Register Here
The year 2020 has ushered in rapid and significant shifts in existing threats to global security. From the COVID-19 pandemic to climate change and longstanding violent conflict, the pressures facing our current global system are increasingly complex and all-encompassing. Among these, violent extremism remains a significant challengeâshifting as actors adapt and take advantage of ongoing and emerging global shocks and sources of instability.
How has the violent extremism landscape changed in the five years since the âfallâ of ISIS? How has rising global instability, populism, and disinformation altered violent extremist operations and ideologies, and vice versa? What challenges do we face in addressing violent extremism in the new threat landscape? Can we apply any lessons from past experiences to address emerging threats and dynamics in 2020 and beyond?
Please join the RESOLVE Network and USIP for a discussion about these challenges and more during part one of RESOLVEâs fifth annual Global Forum series. Convened virtually, the forum will bring together leading experts and researchers for thought-provoking conversations on evolving trends and dynamics in the violent extremist landscape.
Speakers:
Dr. Alastair Reed, opening remarks: Senior Expert and Executive Director of the RESOLVE Network
Dr. Mary Beth Altier: Clinical Associate Professor, Center for Global Affairs, New York University
Dr. Amarnath Amarasingam: Assistant Professor, School of Religion, Queenâs University, member of the RESOLVE Research Advisory Council
Dr. Colin P. Clarke: Senior Research Fellow, The Soufan Center, member of the RESOLVE Research Advisory Council
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Any functioning adult would be better
We can never know exactly what Hillary Clinton would have done had she won 3.5 years ago, but let us count the ways the United States could have been better off if just about any normal functioning adult–Republican or Democratic–had become president:
- Well over 150,000 Americans would not have succumbed to Covid19, the epidemic would have receded faster, the economy would have reopened months faster and far safer, the US would be leading the world’s economic recovery instead of dragging it down, and the US debt would be trillions less.
- Millions of now unemployed people would have jobs, and no one would risk losing the health insurance and coverage for preexisting conditions available under Obamacare.
- The Paris Climate Accord would be more effective in limiting greenhouse gases that have contributed to this summer’s record number and intensity of storms in the Atlantic and the unprecedented wildfires in California, causing many billions of dollars of losses.
- The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership might have been concluded, with real advantages for US producers rather than the marginal replacement for NAFTA and the trade war with China that has damaged US agriculture, manufacturers, and consumers.
- Iran would still be a year from having enough fissile material to make a nuclear weapon and negotiation of the follow-on to the nuclear deal would be in progress, including on missiles and regional issues.
- The Voting Rights Act might have been revived in response to the Black Lives Matter protests, along with legislation curbing police abuse, and there would be no discussion of imaginary anarchy in American cities or use of the military against peaceful protests.
- The US would still have the confidence and support of its European allies and China would still be observing the agreement it reached with the Obama administration on commercial hacking.
- Russia would be showing some respect instead of owning the President of the United States, whom it only needs to quote to make its points.
- There would still be hope for a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine and a possibility of curbing the North Korean nuclear program, which has instead inaugurated a missile possibly capable of hitting the US with multiple nuclear warheads.
Of course lots of things would not likely be different: we might still be outside the Trans Pacific Partnership looking in, Maduro might still be president of Argentina, Syria, Yemen, and Libya would still be catastrophic, and the Saudi Crown Prince might still have ordered the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, though MbS would not have been shielded from accountability by the US President.
The United States would be in a far stronger position under any functioning adult, Democratic or Republican, than it is under the false flag of “Make America Great Again.” For anyone interested in foreign policy, that is all you really need to know while filling out your ballot at home and popping it into the mail, provided the US Postal Service doesn’t follow President Trump’s instructions to ensure it doesn’t arrive on time.
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