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Peace Picks | May 26 – 30

Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live-streaming.

• The IRGC Quds Force After Suleimani | May 26, 2020 | 9:30 AM | Arab Gulf States Institute | Register Here

The January 3 killing of Major General Qassim Suleimani, commander of the expeditionary Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, brought the Quds Force further to the forefront of the Islamic Republic’s “maximum resistance” campaign to counter the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign. However, the new Quds Force leadership is not only inheriting a military organization stretched thin over a vast geographic area but also faces greater public hostility against the Islamic Republic and its allies in places like Iraq, the main arena of rivalry between the United States and Iran.

How is the killing of Suleimani likely to change Iran’s grand strategy and Quds Force operations in Iraq and beyond? Who is Ismail Qaani, the new commander of the Quds force, and how is he likely to approach these challenges and adapt his organization to the changed circumstances?

Speakers:

Hussein Ibish (Moderator): Senior Resident Scholar, Arab Gulf States Institute

Ali Alfoneh: Senior Fellow, Arab Gulf States Institute

Kori Schake: Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute

General Joseph L. Votel: U.S. Army (Ret.)

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• Nuclear Deterrence with Russia and China: How are U.S. Course Corrections Needed? | May 26, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM | CATO Institute | Register Here

As the United States shifts the focus of its foreign and defense policies toward great‐​power competition, experts have paid more attention to Russian and Chinese nuclear force postures and strategies. The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) paints a concerning picture of recent developments in both potential adversaries, noting the growth of arsenals and approaches to nuclear strategy that vex U.S. policymakers. The assessments and threat perceptions laid out in the NPR will drive U.S. nuclear strategy for the rest of the Trump administration and potentially beyond because they inform plans for U.S. nuclear modernization.

In the two years since the 2018 NPR’s release, the Trump administration has put its stamp on America’s approach to nuclear deterrence. The administration is clearly worried about the nuclear arsenals and strategies of Russia and China, and many of the NPR’s more controversial items, such as the low‐​yield Trident warhead, are explicitly tied to nuclear developments in potential great‐​power adversaries.

But has the United States accurately diagnosed the most important problems posed by other great powers? Is Washington designing the right solutions to these problems? What are the risks of misdiagnoses and/​or wrong policy solutions? The COVID-19 pandemic has made finding answers to these questions all the more urgent. The economic fallout of the public health emergency will likely create strong budgetary pressures and subject the multidecade, $1 trillion–plus nuclear modernization plan to closer scrutiny.

Speakers:

Eric Gomez: Director of Defense Policy Studies, CATO Institute 

Fiona Cunningham: Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, George Washington University

Michael Kofman: Direction of the Russia Studies Program, CNA

Amy F. Woolf: Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy, Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress

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• Democracy’s Defenders – American Diplomacy in the age of COVID-19 | May 26, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Brookings | Register Here

In his new book, “Democracy’s Defenders: U.S. Embassy Prague, the Fall of Communism in Czechoslovakia, and Its Aftermath,” Brookings Senior Fellow Norman Eisen examines the role of American diplomats in supporting the end of Communism three decades ago and promoting democratic values since. 

On May 26, Governance Studies at Brookings and the Transatlantic Democracy Working Group will co-host a webinar to discuss themes in Eisen’s latest book. Panelists will explore the role of the foreign service in advancing American values abroad, what we can learn from the successes and failures of U.S. foreign policy in Central and Eastern Europe over the past three decades, and the lessons foreign policy holds for all those facing the challenges of transatlantic relations today. The talk will also focus on how American diplomacy and transatlantic democracy has responded to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Today many of those same Czechs and Slovaks are walking the identical boulevards, now wearing masks—does the U.S. still support them in this latest crisis?

Speakers:

Norman Eisen (Moderator) : Senior Fellow, Governance Studies

Alina Polyakova: Former Brookings Expert, President and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis

Jeff Gedmin: Editor-in-Chief of The American Interest, Senior Fellow-Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, Co-chair-Transatlantic Democracy Working Group

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• Humanitarian Operations During COVID-19 : A Conversation with Michelle Nunn of CARE USA |May 26, 2020 | 4:00 PM – 4: 45PM | Center for Strategic & International Studies | Register Here

The spread of Covid-19 continues to dominate global attention. Governments are primarily focusing efforts on the domestic response to the virus. With 168 million people in need of humanitarian assistance globally, including 70 million forcibly displaced, understanding how the pandemic will impact the most vulnerable is vital to implementing an effective response. In this upcoming series, the CSIS Humanitarian Agenda will speak with leadership across humanitarian institutions about the challenges their organizations face during Covid-19. Our featured guests will give their insights on how the pandemic is changing the humanitarian landscape and the impact it has on the delivery of lifesaving assistance now and in the near future. 

The Center for Strategic & International Studies is pleased to invite Michelle Nunn, President and CEO of CARE USA, for a discussion on CARE’s response to the pandemic and the challenges they foresee on the horizon. This conversation will look at what strategies have been implemented, with a particular focus on the gender and economic development impacts of the pandemic.

Speakers:

Michelle Nunn:  President and CEO, CARE USA

Jacob Kurtzer: Interim Director and Senior, Humanitarian Agenda

Katherine Bliss: Senior Fellow, Global Health Policy Center

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• Tenuous Transitions in Ethiopia and Sudan | May 28, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 10:45 AM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here

The two most populous countries in the Horn of Africa—Ethiopia and Sudan—are both struggling with once-in-a-generation political transitions. Complicating these already tenuous transitions is a convergence of worrying trends, such as widespread food insecurity, severe pressure on public finances, ongoing or unresolved internal conflicts, large numbers of displaced persons, and now, the coronavirus pandemic. The fate of the transitions in Ethiopia and Sudan may determine the broader prospects for peace in the region for years to come.

At this critical time in history for the Horn of Africa, join USIP and experts from Ethiopia and Sudan for a discussion on the specific challenges facing the political transitions in these two countries, as well as key parallels.

Speakers: 

Aly Verjee (Moderator): Senior Advisor, United States Institute of Peace

Manal Taha: Sudan Program Advisor, United States Institute of Peace

Payton Knopf: Senior Advisor, United States Institute of Peace

Aaron Maasho: Independent Journalist

Emebet Getachew: Ethiopia Country Program Manager, Life and Peace Institute

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• Iran, Russia, Pakistan, and Afghanistan: Prospects and Potential Trajectories | May 28, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM |Middle East Institute| Register Here

As the United States continues to engage in peace talks with the Taliban, even as Washington considers its future military presence in Afghanistan, the country’s uncertain future provides an opportunity for regional power competition. Recent developments have laid the groundwork for coordination between Iran and Russia in this space, a cooperation which has implications for Iran’s rivalry with Pakistan. At stake in this interplay of regional interests are long-term geopolitical, military and economic interests that can be shaped for years to come. 

How might Iran approach the divergent and common interests of Iran, Russia and Pakistan in Afghanistan? What are Iran’s priorities, and where might opportunities emerge for cooperation or conflict? How might Iran balance these competing interests, and what will be the impact on the ground in Afghanistan? The Middle East Institute is proud to host a group of experts to address these questions and more.

Speakers:

Madiha Afzal: David M. Rubenstein Fellow, Foreign Policy program, The Brookings Institution

Fatemeh Aman: Nonresident Senior Fellow, The Atlantic Council

Kamran Bokhari: Director of analytical development, Center for Global Policy

Amin Tarzi: Director, Middle East studies, Marine Corps University

Alex Vatanka: (Moderator) Senior Fellow and Director, Iran program, Middle East Institute

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• Jihadism at a crossroads | May 29, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 10:00 AM | Brookings | Register Here

Although jihadist groups have gripped the world’s attention for more than 20 years, today they are no longer in the spotlight. However, ISIS, al-Qaida, and al-Shabab remain active, and new groups have emerged. The movement as a whole is evolving, as is the threat it poses.

On May 29, the Center for Middle East Policy will host a virtual panel event to discuss the current status of jihadist groups. The panel will feature Thomas Hegghammer, senior research fellow at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment and author of the new book, “The Caravan: Abdallah Azzam and the Rise of Global Jihad.” Other panelists will include Tricia Bacon, assistant professor at American University, and Bruce Riedel, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Brookings Senior Fellow Daniel Byman will moderate the discussion.

Speakers:

Daniel L. Byman (Moderator): Senior Fellow-Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy

Bruce Riedel: Senior Fellow-Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, Center for Middle East Policy, Director- The Intelligence Project

Tricia Bacon: Professional Lecturer, School of Public Affairs, American University

Thomas Hegghammer: Senior Research Fellow-Norweigan Defence Research Establishment (FFI)

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• Strained Cooperation or a Final Rupture? China – U.S. Relations Amidst a Global Pandemic | May 30, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | Johns Hopkins SAIS | Register Here

The discourse surrounding Sino-US relations in the past decade has often been framed in the context of the “Thucydides Trap,” where conflict between a rising power (China) and the world’s incumbent power (America) is inevitable. The global pandemic has heightened international tensions and is testing global cooperation frameworks. This forum on Saturday, May 30, invites Dr. Adam Webb, Dr. David Arase and Dr. David Bulman to discuss how the global pandemic is impacting nternational relations.

Speakers:

Dr. Adam Webb: American Co-Director, Hopkins-Nanjing Center, Resident Professor of Political Science

Dr. David Arase: Resident Professor of International Politics, Hopkins- Nanjing Center

Dr. David Bulman: Jill McGovern and Steven Muller Assistant Professor of International Affairs and China Studies, Director of Pacific Community Initiative at Johns Hopkins University SAIS