Tag: Corona virus
Trump’s second wave
Yesterday was the worst day of Covid-19 in the US. Not just because more than 2000 people died (as they have every day since April 8) and about 30,000 new cases were confirmed, but because the most reliable of the modeling groups more than doubled its estimate of deaths by August. The “opening of the economy” that President Trump is cheering is now projected to kill an additional 70,000 Americans or so.
This new projection also spells eventual disaster for the economy. As cases expand in states that failed ever to close and that opened prematurely, people will return to quarantining themselves, disrupting the recovery and reducing demand dramatically. The impact will not be limited to a few states, as infected individuals will be traveling country-wide. The still negligible availability of tests to the broader public will guarantee that they infect many others, without any serious possibility of contact tracing in many parts of the country. This is a chain reaction. Once it starts, it will be just as difficult to stop as the first wave, which is still ongoing.
Donald Trump is trying to shift the blame to China, where officials initially tried to hush news of the new corona virus, and the World Health Organization, which praised the Chinese for their vigorous response later. But the President himself repeatedly also praised the Chinese reaction and delayed action in the US to meet the challenge. During January, February, and at least half of March, Trump did everything he could to minimize the epidemic and delay a serious response. The Federal government failed to provide for adequate testing and never insisted on social distancing.
Donald Trump is politically responsible for this mess. Not just because the buck stops on the President’s desk, but also because his decisions and non-decisions determined the outcome. The trillions of dollars in stimulus money the Congress has appropriated are going to fail to have the intended impact if the second wave of this virus is as big–or possibly even bigger–than the first. Jobs, businesses, and profits are all going to be hit harder than they have been so far.
Anthony Fauci, now muzzled, gave what is likely his farewell interview as a government employee to National Geographic. He is now muzzled and may quit or be fired. He finds no evidence that the Covid-19 virus was made in a lab or even that it unintentionally crossed from a non-human to human host there, despite the brazen claims of Secretary of State Pompeo, who wouldn’t know a virus from a tree. Fauci is also anticipating a second wave. His only bit of hope is for an early vaccine, which won’t however arrive before January. By then, Trump’s second wave will have killed 70,000 more Americans.
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Stevenson’s army, May 5
– Several reports cite other governments that dispute the Pompeo claims about the Wuhan lab. See this from the Guardian and this from FP.
-But Post columnist Henry Olsen sees the China issue as good politics.
– Dan Baer proposes an alternative approach.
– Since I made so much of my fight to kill the B-1 when I was a Senate staffer, I feel obligated to send this report on how the plan is still in business.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, May 4
– Last week, the DNI released a formal statement on China and the coronavirus, leaving undetermined whether it might have come from inside the Wuhan lab.
– But the president had his own different view.
– As did SecState Pompeo.
He has been the point man in the administration’s anti-China campaign.
– Now DHS – a member of the intelligence community,but not usually in the forefront — has leaked a deliberately unclassified paper arguing Chinese culpability in the pandemic.
-Today at 3pm the Pulitzer prizes will be announced.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, May 1
-WaPo says the administration is developing a package of anti-China measures,
many extreme and unprecedented, like demanding reparations for pandemic
costs and refusing to pay interest on Chinese-held US bonds.[As I said
in class, I support vigorous US measures to thwart Chinese military
expansion and to compete economically, especially in advanced
technologies. But I resent Trump’s weaponizing these measures mainly for
his political campaign and as a distraction from his delays and
failures handling the pandemic.]
– Part of this effort, NYT reports, is pressuring the intelligence community to prove Chinese culpability for release of the coronavirus.
– And SecState Pompeo was already in a pissing contest with Beijing.
– WSJ profiles national security adviser O’Brien, who says NSC staff is now down to the 120s.
– Yes, the FISA court consists of Article III [life-tenured] federal judges.
– NYT reports that Zoom sessions can be bad for your health.
And while I’m in a grumpy mood, how about this:
Lawmakers Vote by Mail to Roll Back Vote by Mail
April 30, 2020 at 3:10 pm EDT
“An emergency plan for Louisiana’s delayed spring elections was approved by the state Legislature after Republican lawmakers rolled back an expansion of mail-in ballots for people concerned about the coronavirus,” the Baton Rouge Advocate reports.
“Lawmakers voted by mail on the emergency plan.”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Iraq between two hard places
Munquith Dagher suggests that Iran is acquiescing in Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s nomination as Iraq’s Prime Minister because of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ weakness in the wake the Soleimani assassination and the decline of its soft power inside Iraq. The smart money is betting that the parliament will approve al-Kadhimi, the third Prime Minister-designate in the current round, by the May 9 deadline, though that is far from guaranteed.
The former reformist intelligence chief, if he gains a majority, will face an unusually fraught situation in the midst of Ramadan:
- Covid-19: While the Shia authorities were quick to end religious ceremonies and the Ministry of Health has reacted reasonably well, the pandemic will strain Iraq’s limited health system.
- Oil prices: The collapse of oil prices to around $20/barrel wrecks havoc with Iraq’s budget, which is premised this year on $56/barrel. Oil represents virtually all of the government’s revenue and the country’s exports.
- Iran/US tensions: For the moment, Washington and Tehran have backed off from their tit-for-tat attacks between Iranian proxy militias and US forces inside Iraq. Washington has also approved the waivers Iraq needs to continue importing natural gas from Iran, which otherwise would have contravened US sanctions. But nothing has been resolved between Tehran and Washington. There is no reason to believe re-escalation can’t happen again some time during the year.
- Popular demonstrations: Until Covid-19 struck, Iraq was facing a popular uprising against its sectarian/ethnic political system that caused the resignation of (still acting) Prime Minister Adil Abdel Mahdi. Popular sentiment in favor of changing the system is still running strong.
- New elections: Al-Kadhimi will need to prepare for new elections as soon as Covid-19 conditions permit, under a law passed last December that provides for smaller single-member parliamentary constituencies intended to weaken the stranglehold of Baghdad’s political party bosses. But the new system requires a census that will be difficult to conduct unless Iraq issues new “smart” ID cards.
- Relations with the US: A bilateral “strategic framework” meeting is scheduled at the level of Under Secretary of State for June 2. While its formal agenda will be broader, the key issues have to do with security: whether US troops will stay in Iraq or leave, the continuing fight against ISIS resurgence in isolated rural areas (especially in the no-man’s-land between the Iraqi army and Kurdistan Regional Government peshmerga), and whether and how to repatriate the many Iraqi ISIS fighters still in Syria.
This would be a formidable set of challenges under any circumstances, but it will be especially difficult to meet them in the midst of a pandemic and a big global economic recession.
Therein, however, may lie the silver lining, at least for the longer term. Iraq can no longer afford to depend entirely on oil. It will be compelled to diversify its economy. It has already embarked on a World Bank project to end flaring of natural gas, it needs refineries, and its agricultural sector has great potential. Iraqi politicians have generally viewed the private sector as an enemy. They will need to drop that attitude.
There is also some good news on the security front, despite the real threat to both the US and Iraqi forces from Covid-19. The Iraqis aim for complete removal of US troops in the long term and believe they already no longer need them for the kinetic fight against ISIS. The Americans however also provide training and intelligence support that is still required, if not from the US bilaterally then perhaps indirectly through NATO, if that presence can be preserved.
Baghdad aims for balance between Iran, its powerful neighbor, and the more distant but still vital US. It wants good relations with both the Great Satan and the Axis of Evil. Iraq is between two hard places.
PS: For a far more pessimistic view, and hope the US can be helpful, see Samir Sumaida’ie’s piece.
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Stevenson’s army, April 30
– I do urge you to read the new Foreign Affairs piece by Prof. Brands and Peter Feaver and Will Imboden rebutting the argument that the US foreign policy elite, “the Blob,” have failed miserably.
-WaPo reports the continuing interagency fight over China, especially the restriction of medical imports.
– WaPo also profiles Matt Pottinger, deputy NSA and one of the leading China hawks.
– NYT legal writer says the executive order on meatpacking plants doesn’t go very far.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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